Friday Free-for-all!

Yeah, it’s the weekend!  That means it’s time for our regular end of the week news round-up and open topic discussion thread, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

18k Inventory party!
Updated inventory graph
Taxpayers victims of ‘hot money’
Welcome to Effluent Richmond
1 month later Telus still not sold out
special offer, $510,000 off
CMHC dismisses bubble talk
The CMHC board of directors
Silver linings of slow growth economy
Condo craze gets crazier
Wolverine moves down under
Huge drop in Chinese immigrants
Building permits rise, just not here
Pastrick thinks prices might fall
Buying with 5% down?
Time to cash out?
Condo owner, why so glum?

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2

@jesse: Yikes, that’s an ugly pic! Do you have the raw data? I have an idea of how to present the data in a graph that is more informative and a bit more legible.

TIA

Vansanity
Guest
Vansanity

@UnagiDon: Thanks Jesse! Fuckin awesome! That does paint quite the picture.

jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in
I know many people who accept that the widening gap between the 1% and the rest of us is a fact of life and we need to learn to live with it. As far as I am concerned, I would like to believe we live in a democracy, and we can choose the fundamentals of our society. If the plutocracy imposes its rules, than are we still living in a true democracy? I noticed that at work, a lot of my colleagues have principles, but when the corporate model is imposed on us, they accept it passively. Somehow, the collective narrative is that anyone standing up for their values is a whistle-blower/immature/annoying brat. I believe we need to keep standing up, so that the next generation enjoys what my generation was given without a fight (access to education and healthcare,… Read more »
jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in

Time to lock in:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/05/11/canadas-surge-in-hiring-housing-starts-could-mean-rate-hike-this-summer/
Canada’s surge in hiring, housing starts could mean rate hike this summer

Makaya
Member
Makaya
@jumpin in: “Why so much defeatism? May be because we are still too comfortable. I am wondering what the turning point will be.” Read this article: Comfortably Numb Here is the introduction of the article: As I observe the zombie like reactions of Americans to our catastrophic economic highway to collapse, the continued plundering and pillaging of the national treasury by criminal Wall Street bankers, non-enforcement of existing laws against those who committed the largest crime in history, and reaction to young people across the country getting beaten, bludgeoned, shot with tear gas and pepper sprayed by police, I can’t help but wonder whether there is anyone home. Why are most Americans so passively accepting of these calamitous conditions? How did we become so comfortably numb? I’ve concluded Americans have chosen willful ignorance over thoughtful critical thinking due to their… Read more »
squeako
Guest
squeako

Would a black plague remidify the widening gap?
It worked in europe, when workers were scarce, the priviledged had to start offering a better deal, or the next rich land owner got the worker.

Can humans be outperformed by robots?

Should the “proles” stop having kids? Then what happens?

We have social media… so cannot the “proles” unite? Speak up?
State what we want in society? Libya..I believe, had a revolution, should we have one here?
Not desperate enough yet?

So, what do we want? Or rather what do we need? Each person have about 50 years to “do something”, not a long time, so uniting and overlapping (multigenerational plan) or has changes to be swifter than that?

Historians may offer some clue. (And who wrote the history..)

Burbs Boy
Guest
Burbs Boy

UnagiDon: History has shown that the 99% can change the rules. Don’t get caught up in the belief that you are too small to make a difference. That is the fallacy of composition. Your actions count towards the whole. When the 99% even come close to working together for the greater good then things you never dreamed could pass can come true in the blink of an eye. There is no reason why we have to tolerate greed, sleaze, and corruption as it exists today in our democracies.

jjss
Guest
jjss

I can’t access the Globe and Mail article posted by VMD. I did find an article from yesterday saying that the paper plans to start charging for online access though.Could this be why?

Savonarola
Guest
Savonarola

@Makaya, “Comfortably Numb” article — I agree there isn’t enough protest in the US, but there’s absolutely none at all that I can see in Vancouver. Did you mean that article to apply to Canada too?

avocat du diable
Guest
avocat du diable

All the bad news, nothing about the excellent jobs report today.
This site is not credible, just an outlet for crazy “end of the world is near” bears

VCI Admin
Admin

Happy Friday! here’s some more VancouverPeak forum invite codes:

wrwp-k7i0-5h01
nzzs-gziy-rovq
dtog-dyxn-z7ia
Hyperventelator
Guest
Hyperventelator

@avocat du diable:

You want to talk about the Jobs report? Ok here goes:

The awesome jobs report indicates that the economy is strong and that there is therefore no need for record low interest rates. Rates will go up making mortgages at today’s housing prices totally unaffordable. That means lower prices.

Curtis
Guest
Curtis

@avocat du diable: Guess you missed jesses comment about the jobs report, it’s comment #2.

It is interesting that half the gains were in manufacturing, anyone have more insight into that?

Makaya
Member
Makaya
@Savonarola: “Did you mean that article to apply to Canada too?” Absolutely, and it actually applies to all the western countries (except Iceland). Coming from a country with a history of chopping its kings’ heads that just elected a president with a simple message: “I hate the rich. My enemy is the world of finance” (this is the exact translation of what he said during his campaign), I know it wouldn’t take a lot for people to revolt and put the whole country into a bloody mess. This applies to quite a few other countries in Europe as well. I surely don’t hope we’ll get to that extreme as the consequences would be felt worldwide, but I also hope that the people in charge understand that there is so much population can take and it’s time to truly and meaningfully… Read more »
jesse
Member

@oneangryslav2: Here is the raw data with a bunch of my other graphs I use on mohican’s blog. The second tab has the tabulated data arranged by month and year.

The method I use here is what Prof Hamilton uses when citing US economic data and seemed easy to interpret, with what google spreadsheets allows. Please improve it and share!

avocat du diable
Guest
avocat du diable
Trying to portray this job report as negative is total BS. The report was excellent, and if half the jobs were in manufacturing, that is even better. And for anyone with some understanding of monetary policy, it is clear that rates will stay low for many years to come. BoC will not move on rates until the Fed does. Clearly the Fed is on hold for a very long time. So will be BoC. Carney will jawbone from time to time as usual about debt and interest rates but nothing of substance will happen. Watch what they do not what they say. Inventory will peak at 19k and we will be back to stagnation pricewise. I don’t see any crash coming here. With low interest rates and good job prospects, people will continue to pay their mortgages and built slowly… Read more »
jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in

The Spanish government is about to rescue the Spanish banks with taxpayers’ money, since the banks are collapsing in the post-housing-bubble phase (that they created). I truly hope this won’t happen in Canada. I feel mad enough without it.

offside
Guest
offside

avocat du diable Says “people will continue to pay their mortgages and built slowly equity.”

you forgot income. current income does not support current prices. it has not supported at least for the last 10 years.

patriotz
Member

@jumpin in:
It has to happen in Canada, because the mortgages have already been guaranteed by the government.

That’s the sinister thing about it, the bailout has already been done in advance so there will be nothing to debate when TSHTF.

patriotz
Member

@avocat du diable:
Low rates have not prevented an all out bust in Kelowna and elsewhere in BC, nor have they taken prices back to 2007 in Calgary or Edmonton.

The reason is simply and obvious: if the cost of buying is well above renting at current interest rates a bust is inevitable without any increase.

avocat du diable
Guest
avocat du diable

@patriotz
“The reason is simply and obvious: if the cost of buying is well above renting at current interest rates a bust is inevitable without any increase.”

Exactly. There are many places out there where considering the interest rates now, it is cheaper to buy than to rent.
I posted the example of the condo I rent myself the other day and was quickly voted down into forclosure.
But it is clearly cheaper for me to buy the place than to rent it. (cost of buying $805/month versus cost of renting $850/month)
The figures wont make sense if you consider detached houses in many desirable areas of the city of if you start taking into account the possibility that interest rates will rise, but those are speculative undertakings. Interest rates can go either way at this stage.

Hyperventelator
Guest
Hyperventelator

@avocat du diable:

“it is clear that rates will stay low for many years to come”

So says the Wizard of Oz.

jesse
Member
@avocat du diable: Don’t strawman the “spinning jobs report negative” angle, few are stating a drop in UE is a bad thing, though let’s be honest it would help depress house prices. The issue with the jobs report is that it’s not completely pedal to the metal positive. First an increase in manufacturing jobs of 10K is huge and bears some looking into. We don’t know where those jobs are and the report is seasonally adjusted. Revisions in subsequent months may occur unless there is some indication the jobs are real ones and not due to some out-of-phase hiring binge that causes the equalizers to fail. Second there is some decent analysis from BC Stats that BC migratory patterns are influenced heavily by unemployment differentials with most notably Ontario and Alberta. Look at the population changes, they are paltry, indicating… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
@patriotz: “You think the solution to too many sleazy, overpaid executives is even more sleazy, overpaid, executives? Think much?” Most of the sleazy, overpaid executives are running public companies traded on the stock exchanges. Ultimately the people to blame IMO are the people who willingly buy the equities in these companies – the owners of the companies. From a person who is on record as having invested his/her money in equities likely mostly run by sleazy, overpaid executives I have no doubt who is really enabling the situation. It is you Patriotz as the investor and not the person who decides to take one of the high paying jobs who is to blame. I know you are not making this policy up but when you buy company shares you are essentially giving approval on how the company is run. The… Read more »
patriotz
Member

@avocat du diable:
“But it is clearly cheaper for me to buy the place than to rent it.”

It’s not clearly anything, because you have not given us all the numbers which would allow us to verify your claim. You didn’t even give any clue at to where it is.

That sort of thing attracts a lot of thumbs down, as you have noticed.