Whistlers nasty collapse

They say bubbles inflate from the center, working their way out to peripheral areas. They then tend to collapse in reverse with outlying areas crashing first as the equity vacuum works its way back to the center.

Right now Vancouver is seeing unseasonably high listings and lower than normal sales. Prices are softening, but there’s no dramatic crash yet.

Meanwhile Vancouver Island, The Sunshine Coast and the BC interior are all seeing dramatic price drops.

Just north of us you’ll find Whistler BC, the ski resort where prices just keep on melting. The Village Whisperer points out this 65% asking price drop since 2005.

On a similar note Makaya pointed out this delightful instance of Whistler bottom-calling in 2010. The supposition was that since prices had been dropping, they wouldn’t any more.

For people expecting the real estate prices in Whistler to drop after the Olympics, I’m afraid you’re going to be sorely disappointed.
According to George Klimock from The Whistler Real Estate Company, property prices in Whistler today are already 15-25% lower than previous prices in 2007. In fact, current prices in Whistler are down to 2001 levels.
With a high level of inquiries and good prices, Whistler is considered to good value in the resort market, with, for example, a 2 bedroom condo is now listed at $ 519,000 as opposed to the more expensive $ 630,000 a few years earlier.

Meanwhile prices just keep sliding down the mountain..

UPDATE: The whistler bottom-calling article linked above is not currently working. Ant saved a copy of it here on Vancouver Peak.

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VMD
Member

New court-ordered sale in Coquitlam today:
2295 Parkway Blvd, Coquitlam MLS® V953759
Listing price: $595,000
Assessed: $1,139,000
2008 sale price: $1,450,000
7 Bedroom, 4 Full Bath, 1 Half Bath
3,894 Sq Ft. 10,010 Sq Ft Lot. Built 2001

Grow-op? Haunted? Full water damage?

“BUILDER’S, RENOVATER’S SPECIAL! Here’s your chance to redo the interior of this 3 level, 3900 sq ft home. This home offers 7 bedrooms, 5 bathrooms, 3 fireplaces, 3 decks, covered patio and 2 kitchens (legal suite). Large 10,010 sq ft lot has green belt on 2 sides and faces the Golf course. ”

http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/listing?id=259517450

yvr2zrh
Member

Late in the day so perhaps not many will see this. Today was a surprise. Before this “pop” we were going to be down in units over prior month. Now, not so likely. In any case, one stat which should make everyone think is that prices are down in a statistically meaningful way, with average selling price now down to levels not seen really for over a year. We almost have to see a decrease in HPI this month (other than Apartment). Wait for the Larry Y graphs on Friday and see how the price decrease is pretty strong in detached and in townhouse.

Chabar
Guest
Chabar
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Makaya: “Today was admittedly not a great day for the bears…”

Although tracking total inventory makes some sense, looking at sales vs listing on a daily basis is virtually meaningless. The sales posted today are all sales from offers made up to weeks ago that have just been posted today. Listings are a combination of new listings, relisting expired listings and canceled then relisted properties in an attempt to make them look like new listings.

jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in

Talked to a friend tonight who just moved into a rental apartment at UBC. Building is two years old and floors are already sagging, so much that her closet doors keep opening by themselves, and drawers have a hard time staying closed…
Market value? $700,000, for a wood frame condo on leased land. What a DEAL! 😉

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@mac: “Why are people so sensitive over small losses of perceived gains in real estate when you would grumble for 2 seconds and take the loss in stocks only to move on to another investment. I really don’t get it.”

Mac, you clearly don’t have the backbone to negotiate the best deal. If you would sell anything for 30K less than you could sell it for, then I suggest you have someone manage theses things for you. Even if the transaction is large, 30K is a chunk of change. Only a moron would pass on that. Clearly the grandma made the right decision because she ended up with 30K more than you would have accepted. How could you argue different. Maybe you are just trying to justify your own bad decisions of the past.

mac
Member
mac

@mattymatt123: Not to disagree too firmly (here comes the firm disagreement) but I was lowballed and really didn’t fight too hard. In the end it was 15K-20K than we had wanted but we had doubled our money, so who cares.

Why are people so sensitive over small losses of perceived gains in real estate when you would grumble for 2 seconds and take the loss in stocks only to move on to another investment. I really don’t get it.

Makaya
Member
Makaya

Today was admittedly not a great day for the bears… so here is a story to warm your hearts…

Straight from our bull friends over at RETalks:

As far as I remember the Orchard Richmond Condo was developed by some mainland China investors. Now, the project was acquired by Concord Pacific and renamed to Omega. Nobody buying or just too many presale condos?
http://www.vancouver-real-estate-direct.com/buzz/2012/05/richmond-omega-condos/
(…)
that thing was supposedly 90% sold last year october.

prices started at 259900.

now starting at 213000

not sure what happened to those previous buyers.

i wonder if concord got a good deal on the project and then passed some savings to the buyers via lower pricing.
(…)
Too much supply along the garden city corridor. But these units are priced well. All units are under $400k

More sales might mean lower prices indeed…

VanDweller
Member
VanDweller
Copied from PaulB’s number. Thank you PaulB. http://www.laurenandpaul.ca http://tinyurl.com/paulsfacebookpage Using good-format’s format. Date List Price+- Sold Xpired Inv Inv+- S/L% 12.04.30 316 179 124 17530 75 39 12.05.01 354 144 179 583 17122 -408 51 12.05.02 371 131 150 100 17243 121 36 12.05.03 339 159 121 61 17400 157 36 12.05.04 337 120 77 68 17592 192 23 12.05.07 353 177 90 128 17727 135 25 12.05.08 365 157 183 86 17823 96 50 12.05.09 337 145 183 60 17917 94 54 12.05.10 318 129 115 47 18073 156 36 12.05.11 262 132 81 78 18176 103 31 12.05.14 268 168 150 112 18182 6 56 12.05.15 287 174 95 100 18274 92 33 12.05.16 271 185 204 141 18200 -74 75 12.05.17 270 127 70 94 18306 106 26 12.05.18 328 106 135 80 18419 113 41 12.05.22… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@mattymatt123:
(It is a crash! and going to get worse!offer: 1mill 10thousand not 1mill 1hundred and 10thousand. Is -190,000 from tax assessment. That’s a lot of money! And the buyer is a 30 some WHITE guy! Not Chinese)

Sorry i didn’t expect white vancouvrite are as stupid as our compatriots whose collective and herding mentality has done a great deal of harm to China and the world.Why would white Vancouverites fall in the same Sino mentality?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Yesterday I said we’re plateauing and got voted down, today I maintain I was right. The trend is your friend.

market stats
Guest
market stats

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-30/australia-housing-escapes-peril-on-undersupply-mortgages.html

200k for a plot of land sydney say northern beaches almost sounds like paradise and people think they have a bubble

jesse
Member

A 200+ sales day. I forgot they sometimes go that high. ‘s been a while.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@real_professional: “One day does not a trend make”

Except when it works in the bears’ favour.

xyz
Guest
xyz

@McLovin:
Well that was unexpected… considering my posts count is miles below yours.. Must be a few beers in and feeling a bit randy…

At least my post was on topic

McLovin
Guest
McLovin

xyz,

Don’t you have better things to do with your time than to post such asinine drivel? Are you snorting coke?

xyz
Guest
xyz

Same House -> Typo??

7:07 PM $529000 5br – House for sale, 3 bath, 2500 sf (Burnaby)
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reb/2998696069.html

7:41 PM $348800 Un-Believable House! (BC)
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reb/3038441487.html

Typo or not posting the same house for sale 30 mins apart smacks of desperation :O

real_professional
Member

One day does not a trend make –

Wait and see, I wouldn’t be surprised if tomorrow is reversion back to the mean day.

Remember – Teranet sales pairs down 60% YoY

McLovin
Guest
McLovin

I hope I’m the only one in Vancouver not dropping their price.

Twenty cash, same as every Saturday night. No hst.

buffates
Guest
buffates

steadily adding on to listings. Slow and steady that’s what we like

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@paulb.: Paulb’s post is not very popular tonight…

I wonder what the expiry effect will be on the inventory in a few days.

Maverick
Guest
Maverick

@paulb.:

Big sales day. I’d be willing to be that there is a fair amount of seller capitulation in terms of taking lower offers for their properties.

Of course the idiot buyers think they’re getting a deal.

Really can’t wait to see the May stats.

jjss
Guest
jjss

Just been reading about Eurozone worries and found this interesting article.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/30/london-house-prices-eurozone-collapse

Simple
Guest
Simple

TI: 18883. Five sales short of the luckiest inventory of all time.

chilled
Member
chilled

@frank:

“this danged thing is like dracula. Just when you think it s down for the count, up it comes again, driven by cheapo money, tax-payer insurance and HAM”

LOL!!! Your analogy also describes a part of my anatomy. Except it is driven by cheapo broads, lack of assurance and RUM.