Whistlers nasty collapse

They say bubbles inflate from the center, working their way out to peripheral areas. They then tend to collapse in reverse with outlying areas crashing first as the equity vacuum works its way back to the center.

Right now Vancouver is seeing unseasonably high listings and lower than normal sales. Prices are softening, but there’s no dramatic crash yet.

Meanwhile Vancouver Island, The Sunshine Coast and the BC interior are all seeing dramatic price drops.

Just north of us you’ll find Whistler BC, the ski resort where prices just keep on melting. The Village Whisperer points out this 65% asking price drop since 2005.

On a similar note Makaya pointed out this delightful instance of Whistler bottom-calling in 2010. The supposition was that since prices had been dropping, they wouldn’t any more.

For people expecting the real estate prices in Whistler to drop after the Olympics, I’m afraid you’re going to be sorely disappointed.
According to George Klimock from The Whistler Real Estate Company, property prices in Whistler today are already 15-25% lower than previous prices in 2007. In fact, current prices in Whistler are down to 2001 levels.
With a high level of inquiries and good prices, Whistler is considered to good value in the resort market, with, for example, a 2 bedroom condo is now listed at $ 519,000 as opposed to the more expensive $ 630,000 a few years earlier.

Meanwhile prices just keep sliding down the mountain..

UPDATE: The whistler bottom-calling article linked above is not currently working. Ant saved a copy of it here on Vancouver Peak.

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Anon
Guest
Anon

Whistler is a stupid party town that is overpriced even after 65% drop. I can think of unlimited number of ways to spend $133k, each with much more fun than having the privilege of paying taxes and strata fees every year on a 500 sq ft room in a town with no real economy. And by the way it was not constructed to last long and it is already over 30 years old…

P.S. judging by the photo of that dude he really should have relieved himself prior to posing for the camera.

VMD
Member

“multiple sources that a 65% loan-to-value maximum is now a done deal for HELOCs. The HELOC LTV limit is currently 80%.”

– the bank machine just shrunk.

May 29, 2012
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/05/heloc-loan-to-values.html

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow
I won’t bore you all by posting for the millionth time the details of my significant other’s Whistler condo. I predict it will be selling for $99k in a few short years (currently they sell for around $225k, basically the same price they bought it for 10 years ago). A losing investment every year. But you’re right, the Okanagan’s not doing great either-why doesn’t Global ever go there and show how on average, house prices are down 30% (and not exactly showing signs of recovery)? One person I know bought a condo presale for 225k or 250k, the thing is now worth $165k (based on what the neighbor recently sold similar unit for, and it’s assessed at 174k.) There are tales of woe in the interior. I’m sure the popping of the bubble is here now…and sadly I think it’s… Read more »
VanBlazer
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VanBlazer
Below is an email I recently received from a Whistler Real Estate agent. According to this the Whistler market is improving and is “balanced” at present and is going to continue as such. Market Report Sales activity in the Whistler marketplace continues to build on the momentum established in the second half of 2011. Improvements have been seen in the total number of sales, total dollar volume, and average sale values on a year-to-date basis for the first quarter of 2012 as compared to a year ago. The Whistler marketplace has historically demonstrated some seasonality with the first half of the year being less active than the second half of the year. However, total sales and dollar volume were measurably better this year when compared to the same period one year ago. The total number of properties sold increased by… Read more »
yvr2zrh
Member

#4 . . Sorry for the term but one of my former bosses used to describe such an increase in revenues/sales like an “Overeating Anorexic”.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Anon:

Sounds like you don’t ski.

Prof.
Guest
Prof.

Put a toll on the sea to sky.

silverfish city
Guest
silverfish city

@pricedoutfornow: It’s funny how you can’t get up to date stats for the South Okanagan (Summerland, Penticton, Osoyoos, etc.), while the central and north areas publish theirs. I’ve heard some tales of woe from Penticton in particular.

Troll
Guest
Troll

Teranet home price index update

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx

Doesn’t look like a crash to me, actually see an uptick again in April. Where’s that guy with the silly “months since peak” crash chart with median, indexes and average prices all mixed and showing prices off 10%? Doesn’t seem to jive with Teranet. I’ll take Teranet.

Not much of a name...
Member
Not much of a name...

@Troll: It also falls in line with what REBGV has been reporting with their new HPI. April’s data is just shy of the Aug 2011 peak…take it for what it’s worth.

patriotz
Member

@Troll:
“Doesn’t look like a crash to me, actually see an uptick again in April.”

Well then you’d better get out there and buy. 19,000 opportunities await you.

Troll
Guest
Troll

@patriotz:

Well then you’d better get out there and buy. 19,000 opportunities await you.

Really Patriot? I expected better from you. That’s such a lame bear retort, I didn’t expect you to stoop to that level of thinking as well.

Why can some bears just never accept that past predictions were wrong or that things just aren’t going way the way they’d hoped just yet?

Not every dissenting voice is a recommendation to buy.

Village Whisperer
Member
Village Whisperer

Makaya’s link is now broken. Anyone get a screen shot of the site.?

Crash Crowley
Guest
Crash Crowley

@Troll:

A crash doesn’t “look like a crash” until its half over.

Troll
Guest
Troll

@Crash Crowley:

A crash doesn’t “look like a crash” until its half over.

LOL…right.

JR
Guest
JR

@Troll: You know what I find most interesting about the Teranet chart, like all charts of GVRD prices, is that it mostly goes up or it goes down, and the only time its flat is when prices are in the tank. I wonder what the next move will be.

jesse
Member

@Troll: “Doesn’t look like a crash to me, actually see an uptick again in April.”

I’m predicting prices peak in June. If prices are dropping, it’s too late for most because sales volumes will be low.

Patsan
Guest
Patsan

Anybody noticed a plunge in Sales Pair Count below the Teranet graph for Vancouver? The count (~1000) is about half of March number and is comparable to 2008/2009 counts. At the same time, GVREB reported 2,806 sales in April 2012.
While Teranet’s sales pair counts for April 2011 and 2010 are in line with GVREB reported numbers, April 2012 numbers are well off.
Something tells that Teranet used only a sample of sales, not all of them.

patriotz
Member
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Troll: he did accept he was wrong, he left town! and now unemployed.

jesse
Member
Speaking of blasts from 2010, here’s a funny one: Mean Street: The New Bond Market Bubble I said it six weeks ago — and I’ll say it again: the bond market is wrong. A three-year IBM bond yielding 1% annually? Come on, people! Here’s a fun homework assignment: please construct a plausible scenario that makes buying the 2.64% yielding 10-year Treasury, a good risk-reward bet… Our current bubble in government bonds doesn’t mean that Treasury prices will suddenly collapse. The market is too big and too liquid to just do that. But let’s go back to plausible economic scenarios. If you’re buying a 10-year Treasury at current yields, you’re betting on massive secular deflation, flat to declining rents and home prices, no annual hikes in insurance premiums, utility charges or college tuition, no price increases for airline tickets, taxi fares… Read more »
mattymatt123
Guest

The implosion is happening in East Van also! My grandma’s EV Special was assessed at 1.2mill. She put it on the market about 2 weeks ago for that price. The first weekend, 22 showings at the open house and only 1 low-ball offer ($975 000). Final haggled the price to $1,010,000 (one million ten thousand) and offer accepted. Only one looky-loo since, and still waiting for subject removals. Grandmas pissed! But MUST SELL because she can’t take care of the house any more. Motivated sellers dictate the market now! THE BUBBLE HAS POPPED!

I will post the listing after the sale goes thur.

Crash Crowley
Guest
Crash Crowley

@Troll:

In 2008 you were probably still saying that it “doesn’t look like a crash” in the united states.

Lumbach
Guest
Lumbach
The Ant
Member

@patriotz: That’s ridiculous. I can’t believe they’d be so transparent as deleting the original article after it was linked to. Perhaps they’re just having technical difficulties. Just in case the Google Cache changes I put a copy of the full original 2010 Whistler bottom calling article on VancouverPeak:

http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/general-chatter/forum/topic/whistler-bottom-calling/

The last paragraph is the best:

The message is, if you’re waiting for prices to drop before purchasing property in Whistler, you may be too late. The time to buy is now.

Remember this. That message from realtors will not change anywhere no matter what the market is doing.

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