Whistlers nasty collapse
They say bubbles inflate from the center, working their way out to peripheral areas. They then tend to collapse in reverse with outlying areas crashing first as the equity vacuum works its way back to the center.
Right now Vancouver is seeing unseasonably high listings and lower than normal sales. Prices are softening, but there’s no dramatic crash yet.
Meanwhile Vancouver Island, The Sunshine Coast and the BC interior are all seeing dramatic price drops.
Just north of us you’ll find Whistler BC, the ski resort where prices just keep on melting. The Village Whisperer points out this 65% asking price drop since 2005.
On a similar note Makaya pointed out this delightful instance of Whistler bottom-calling in 2010. The supposition was that since prices had been dropping, they wouldn’t any more.
For people expecting the real estate prices in Whistler to drop after the Olympics, I’m afraid you’re going to be sorely disappointed.
According to George Klimock from The Whistler Real Estate Company, property prices in Whistler today are already 15-25% lower than previous prices in 2007. In fact, current prices in Whistler are down to 2001 levels.
With a high level of inquiries and good prices, Whistler is considered to good value in the resort market, with, for example, a 2 bedroom condo is now listed at $ 519,000 as opposed to the more expensive $ 630,000 a few years earlier.
Meanwhile prices just keep sliding down the mountain..
UPDATE: The whistler bottom-calling article linked above is not currently working. Ant saved a copy of it here on Vancouver Peak.
May 30th, 2012 at 2:21 am 1
Whistler is a stupid party town that is overpriced even after 65% drop. I can think of unlimited number of ways to spend $133k, each with much more fun than having the privilege of paying taxes and strata fees every year on a 500 sq ft room in a town with no real economy. And by the way it was not constructed to last long and it is already over 30 years old…
P.S. judging by the photo of that dude he really should have relieved himself prior to posing for the camera.
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May 30th, 2012 at 3:54 am 2
“multiple sources that a 65% loan-to-value maximum is now a done deal for HELOCs. The HELOC LTV limit is currently 80%.”
- the bank machine just shrunk.
May 29, 2012
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/05/heloc-loan-to-values.html
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May 30th, 2012 at 7:39 am 3
I won’t bore you all by posting for the millionth time the details of my significant other’s Whistler condo. I predict it will be selling for $99k in a few short years (currently they sell for around $225k, basically the same price they bought it for 10 years ago). A losing investment every year.
But you’re right, the Okanagan’s not doing great either-why doesn’t Global ever go there and show how on average, house prices are down 30% (and not exactly showing signs of recovery)? One person I know bought a condo presale for 225k or 250k, the thing is now worth $165k (based on what the neighbor recently sold similar unit for, and it’s assessed at 174k.) There are tales of woe in the interior. I’m sure the popping of the bubble is here now…and sadly I think it’s going to be a lot worse than just a 30% decline.
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May 30th, 2012 at 7:43 am 4
Below is an email I recently received from a Whistler Real Estate agent. According to this the Whistler market is improving and is “balanced” at present and is going to continue as such.
Market Report
Sales activity in the Whistler marketplace continues to build on the momentum established in the second half of 2011. Improvements have been seen in the total number of sales, total dollar volume, and average sale values on a year-to-date basis for the first quarter of 2012 as compared to a year ago.
The Whistler marketplace has historically demonstrated some seasonality with the first half of the year being less active than the second half of the year. However, total sales and dollar volume were measurably better this year when compared to the same period one year ago. The total number of properties sold increased by about 7% while the dollar volume of sales increased by approximately 20% as compared to a year ago.
Purchasers continue to be attracted to lifestyle-oriented purchases. There has been consistent and improving activity in the sale of single family homes, townhouses, and large condominiums.
In addition, increased interest was seen in Whistler’s luxury property segment with an increase of almost 40% in transactions valued at over $1,000,000 reported for the first quarter as compared to one year ago.
Average values for Whistler rebounded during the first quarter as a result. Average reported sales values of a single family homes, townhouses, and condominiums has increased by approximately 8% as compared to those figures reported on December 31, 2011.
Overall, balanced market conditions continue to prevail and we expect this trend to continue to the end of 2012.
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May 30th, 2012 at 8:03 am 5
#4 . . Sorry for the term but one of my former bosses used to describe such an increase in revenues/sales like an “Overeating Anorexic”.
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May 30th, 2012 at 8:16 am 6
@Anon:
Sounds like you don’t ski.
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May 30th, 2012 at 8:33 am 7
Put a toll on the sea to sky.
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May 30th, 2012 at 9:02 am 8
@pricedoutfornow: It’s funny how you can’t get up to date stats for the South Okanagan (Summerland, Penticton, Osoyoos, etc.), while the central and north areas publish theirs. I’ve heard some tales of woe from Penticton in particular.
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May 30th, 2012 at 9:31 am 9
Teranet home price index update
http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx
Doesn’t look like a crash to me, actually see an uptick again in April. Where’s that guy with the silly “months since peak” crash chart with median, indexes and average prices all mixed and showing prices off 10%? Doesn’t seem to jive with Teranet. I’ll take Teranet.
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May 30th, 2012 at 9:42 am 10
@Troll: It also falls in line with what REBGV has been reporting with their new HPI. April’s data is just shy of the Aug 2011 peak…take it for what it’s worth.
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May 30th, 2012 at 9:58 am 11
@Troll:
“Doesn’t look like a crash to me, actually see an uptick again in April.”
Well then you’d better get out there and buy. 19,000 opportunities await you.
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May 30th, 2012 at 10:12 am 12
@patriotz:
Really Patriot? I expected better from you. That’s such a lame bear retort, I didn’t expect you to stoop to that level of thinking as well.
Why can some bears just never accept that past predictions were wrong or that things just aren’t going way the way they’d hoped just yet?
Not every dissenting voice is a recommendation to buy.
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May 30th, 2012 at 10:22 am 13
Makaya’s link is now broken. Anyone get a screen shot of the site.?
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May 30th, 2012 at 10:28 am 14
@Troll:
A crash doesn’t “look like a crash” until its half over.
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May 30th, 2012 at 10:32 am 15
@Crash Crowley:
LOL…right.
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May 30th, 2012 at 10:33 am 16
@Troll: You know what I find most interesting about the Teranet chart, like all charts of GVRD prices, is that it mostly goes up or it goes down, and the only time its flat is when prices are in the tank. I wonder what the next move will be.
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May 30th, 2012 at 10:34 am 17
@Troll: “Doesn’t look like a crash to me, actually see an uptick again in April.”
I’m predicting prices peak in June. If prices are dropping, it’s too late for most because sales volumes will be low.
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May 30th, 2012 at 10:38 am 18
Anybody noticed a plunge in Sales Pair Count below the Teranet graph for Vancouver? The count (~1000) is about half of March number and is comparable to 2008/2009 counts. At the same time, GVREB reported 2,806 sales in April 2012.
While Teranet’s sales pair counts for April 2011 and 2010 are in line with GVREB reported numbers, April 2012 numbers are well off.
Something tells that Teranet used only a sample of sales, not all of them.
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May 30th, 2012 at 10:44 am 19
@Village Whisperer:
Google cache to the rescue:
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:lkX_WE6E9-IJ:realestock.com/joomla/the-realestock-report-volume-3/132-real-estate-value-in-whistler-best-in-9-years+For+people+expecting+the+real+estate+prices+in+Whistler+to+drop+after+the+Olympics,+I%E2%80%99m+afraid+you%E2%80%99re+going+to+be+sorely+disappointed.&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&client=ubuntu
Looks like someone up in Whistler is reading this blog. Well you’re not going to erase your tracks that easily.
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May 30th, 2012 at 10:55 am 20
@Troll: he did accept he was wrong, he left town! and now unemployed.
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May 30th, 2012 at 11:07 am 21
Speaking of blasts from 2010, here’s a funny one:
August 16, 2010. Bond markets are hard.
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May 30th, 2012 at 11:11 am 22
The implosion is happening in East Van also! My grandma’s EV Special was assessed at 1.2mill. She put it on the market about 2 weeks ago for that price. The first weekend, 22 showings at the open house and only 1 low-ball offer ($975 000). Final haggled the price to $1,010,000 (one million ten thousand) and offer accepted. Only one looky-loo since, and still waiting for subject removals. Grandmas pissed! But MUST SELL because she can’t take care of the house any more. Motivated sellers dictate the market now! THE BUBBLE HAS POPPED!
I will post the listing after the sale goes thur.
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May 30th, 2012 at 11:18 am 23
@Troll:
In 2008 you were probably still saying that it “doesn’t look like a crash” in the united states.
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May 30th, 2012 at 11:18 am 24
@Troll:
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May 30th, 2012 at 11:22 am 25
@patriotz: That’s ridiculous. I can’t believe they’d be so transparent as deleting the original article after it was linked to. Perhaps they’re just having technical difficulties. Just in case the Google Cache changes I put a copy of the full original 2010 Whistler bottom calling article on VancouverPeak:
http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/general-chatter/forum/topic/whistler-bottom-calling/
The last paragraph is the best:
Remember this. That message from realtors will not change anywhere no matter what the market is doing.
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May 30th, 2012 at 11:23 am 26
@Village Whisperer: Here’s a copy of the article from the broken link:
http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/general-chatter/forum/topic/whistler-bottom-calling/
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May 30th, 2012 at 11:25 am 27
@Crash Crowley: Well if you couldn’t identify the crash in the US in 2008, after the CS 10 city index plunged 25% in 2 years, then I can’t help you.
The US in 2008 is a far cry from where Van RE stands today.
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May 30th, 2012 at 11:29 am 28
Would people living in Seattle see it coming in 2008?
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May 30th, 2012 at 11:29 am 29
@Troll:
Correct. The US in 2008 is not comparable to Van RE today.
The correct comparison is to the US in 2006.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Case-Shiller_index.png
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May 30th, 2012 at 11:37 am 30
Thanks Ant.
Can you take a screen shot from the cache? It would be great to have the visual too.
If you can, please send the shot to me at village_whisperer@live.ca
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May 30th, 2012 at 11:49 am 31
@Village Whisperer: I’ve posted a screenshot under the article:
http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/general-chatter/forum/topic/whistler-bottom-calling/?#post-2423
Does that work for you?
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May 30th, 2012 at 11:56 am 32
Perfect Ant.
If we can get a wider shot of the whole article that would be nice too, but the one you have is very good.
Thanks.
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May 30th, 2012 at 11:57 am 33
19k today?
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May 30th, 2012 at 12:00 pm 34
@Village Whisperer: If I go full screen I can just get all the text in, I’ve posted that as well: http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/general-chatter/forum/topic/whistler-bottom-calling/?#post-2424
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May 30th, 2012 at 12:01 pm 35
@The Ant: Thanks, we’ve added the cache link to the main article.
And for those that are interested http://vancouverpeak.com now has open registration.
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May 30th, 2012 at 12:09 pm 36
@Dyugle:
Seattle was the last US market to peak in mid-2007, and a year later common sentiment was still that it was immune to declines. For example this post from Seattle Bubble:
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/07/24/seattle-housing-market-vs-national-headlines/
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May 30th, 2012 at 12:17 pm 37
If you ever listen to the Dave Ramsey radio show, or watch his Fox Channel TV show, he says much the same thing. He affects this exaggerated voice and mimics hyperbole (“The sky is falling! The sky is falling!”), then assures his audience that the sky is not falling, that real estate is “local” doing OK here and there (except for some rough spots in places), and advises the sconcerned segment of his audience to stop reading the newspapers or ignore the national media.
______
So ignore the national media? So ignore him right since he is “media”? That is one bright bulb…
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May 30th, 2012 at 12:22 pm 38
The risks of being a landlord:
“A man who may have a connection to the sushi restaurant murders and who is accused of shooting his landlord last night in Burnaby is armed and unstable, say police, and residents from Metro Vancouver to Vancouver Island are being warned to watch out for the former security guard…He is wanted in connection with the attempted murder of a 51-year-old Burnaby man who was shot last night in front of his home located in the 4400 block of Gilpin Crescent in Burnaby. The victim, a former landlord of Mitchell, survived the shooting but is in hospital in serious condition.”
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Armed+dangerous+loose+Burnaby/6701869/story.html
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May 30th, 2012 at 12:55 pm 39
@mattymatt123:
Grandma is pissed because she sold her east van special for over a million? Not to be rude but that’s just pure greed. What did she buy it for? $1? Wow…
Paying over a million for an east van special is not what I call a bubble popping. Patience people, we have a long way to go. Expect another year of 1% here and there of declines. It takes a while for it to “sink in”
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May 30th, 2012 at 12:56 pm 40
whoops, last one was me
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May 30th, 2012 at 12:59 pm 41
@mattymatt123: In a couple of years, your Grandma will be joyfully boasting about getting out at such a good price. She did the right thing, working with the first and best offer.
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May 30th, 2012 at 1:05 pm 42
@Maverick: Well it’s obvious to anyone that the market has definitely slowed. But it’s a leap to suggest that the data shows we are on the precipice of a US style crash, or that we are already experiencing one as some bears have suggested.
See how things play out over the summer. I see three plausible scenarios: 1) Lots of folks pull listings waiting for a better time, which means you have to wait another year for a crash. 2) Listings stay high and sales low but no external shock. A slow unwinding of high prices. 3) Listings stay high, sales low and some external shock (ie recession, Euro zone explosion etc.) and then perhaps you get the start of a US style drop in prices.
Right now Euro-shock is the one I’d be watching. A slow motion train wreck would probably continue to prop prices through lowered bond yields. A quick implosion with a Grexit or more would likely be more harmful to Canada RE.
But then, you know, having said that I should probably just go out and buy lots of property….LOL.
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May 30th, 2012 at 1:17 pm 43
@Troll:
“Well it’s obvious to anyone that the market has definitely slowed. But it’s a leap to suggest that the data shows we are on the precipice of a US style crash”
How is it a stretch? The US crash (and every other RE crash) started with a serious market slowdown.
As another poster pointed out, you would never be able to call the beginning of a crash and you would only identify it when it was arealdy half way to the bottom.
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May 30th, 2012 at 1:26 pm 44
@mattymatt123:
1.11 million still a etremely good fortune for patient owner.Not bad for a 30 yrs old Vancouver special.Can’at say it is a crash in East Vancouver.East Van is mainly supportted by Chinese wage earners and it is a safe island within the storm.price will be stagnant and stable,not a crash man.
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May 30th, 2012 at 1:28 pm 45
@Lumbach:
Sure, but not every slowdown has developed into a crash. Your reasoning is backwards, kind of like the old saying that some metric has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions.
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May 30th, 2012 at 1:28 pm 46
Seattle is getting almost as bad as Vancouver.
http://news.yahoo.com/2-killed-3-wounded-shooting-seattle-cafe-185829443.html
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May 30th, 2012 at 1:32 pm 47
@Ironic:
Fox Channel TV is not a media but a right-wing anti black,color,non-anglo saxon white and Portestan Christian propaganda mouth pc
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May 30th, 2012 at 1:33 pm 48
@Troll:
The fact remains that with your criteria, you would be late to the crash party.
By the way many commentators in the financial media say that the beginning of 2008 was a lot like the beginning of 2012 – commodities slowdown, soft bank runs, serous insolvency issues of very large entities. It didn’t hit the fan until September 2008, if you can recall.
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May 30th, 2012 at 1:38 pm 49
@Lumbach:
Sure, why do I need to be early?
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May 30th, 2012 at 1:42 pm 50
@Troll:
“Sure, but not every slowdown has developed into a crash.”
How about every slowdown with median house price > 10x median household income and ownership costs >2x renting? Getting warmer?
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May 30th, 2012 at 1:48 pm 51
Attn. comment #39 & #41
#39 -Grandma’s not greedy, certain family members are telling her she could have got more! (brain washed!) no one likes to loose… Deep down, she knows she is lucky… They bought the place for $6800.00 in 1952 and selling for 1mill in 2012. Jackpot! Also 200k off is close to 20% off the assessed value, to me that’s a POP! And it will only go down more… much more…
#41 -Your right! I told her that too.
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May 30th, 2012 at 1:49 pm 52
@patriotz: Didn’t we have those conditions as recently as the spring of 2010? High listings and prices started falling for several months. You could have called the start of crash there, and yet now here we are another 10% higher.
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May 30th, 2012 at 1:50 pm 53
@Troll:
You only need to look at the fundamentals (price:income, and price:rent) to know it’s a bubble that will collapse.
Prices always come back down to fundamentals. That’s also how you know the US is bottoming.
It’s really that simple.
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May 30th, 2012 at 1:52 pm 54
@Troll:
I thought last year would be the beginning of the collapse. I was wrong. Though it did mark the peak.
Timing has been a problem for just about every bear. But that doesn’t mean it won’t (or can’t) happen. In fact, the longer it goes on without happening (launching far beyond fundamentals), the more likely a crash back to those fundamentals will occur.
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May 30th, 2012 at 1:54 pm 55
@mattymatt123: No criticism of your grandma meant (but here comes the criticism of your grandma anyway)… why did she fight with them over price? She probably bought it in the 70s for 75K and who cares if she gets 975K or 30K more? It’s not worth it. Now, with the haggle and the headlines, they have a chance to wiggle off the hook and she gets to shite it for a few weeks. Not a healthy choice when you’re grandma’s age. Much better to take the offer and close quickly and move on with your life.
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May 30th, 2012 at 1:55 pm 56
@Anonymous: It is a crash! and going to get worse!offer: 1mill 10thousand not 1mill 1hundred and 10thousand. Is -190,000 from tax assessment. That’s a lot of money! And the buyer is a 30 some WHITE guy! Not Chinese
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May 30th, 2012 at 1:57 pm 57
@Troll: “Sure, why do I need to be early?”
You only want to be early to a crash party if you want to cash out to lock in gains. If you don’t have much equity you might want to cash out to keep from going under water.
If your goal is to lose money then there’s no rush to be on time. You can wait until everything has confirmed the crash has happened and then sell at the bottom of the market.
I don’t really understand it, but there are plenty who do just that.
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May 30th, 2012 at 2:01 pm 58
@Firkin:
But all the bears on here are renters no? So they have no gains to lock in, hence no need to obsess about being early to the party.
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May 30th, 2012 at 2:02 pm 59
@mac: Hey! That my Grandma your talking about…lol
Any ways,if someone low balls you, you would fight over price too. and like i said, bought in 1952 for about $6800.00 she know she’s done good…
but i do agree with the last part of your comment. Don’t’ stress about it when your 80, could do some damage to the heart…
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May 30th, 2012 at 2:05 pm 60
@Troll:
“Sure, why do I need to be early?”
To not pay way too much for a house that is about to crash.
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May 30th, 2012 at 2:09 pm 61
@mattymatt123:
Good on Granny for getting out. I’m not quite sure why you keep mentioning assessed value. Assessed values do not dictate the price. They are horribly inaccurate on the way up and on the way down, well at least lagging anyways.
Someone here at work was bitching about property taxes on her house went up 30% in Surrey. Here “value” on her assessment went up 30% last year. Uh huh. Someone want to tell me what magical part of Surrey went up 30% last year? Like I said, assessments are useless.
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May 30th, 2012 at 2:10 pm 62
@Anonymous: Ah hah! figured it out. Please see comment #51
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May 30th, 2012 at 2:13 pm 63
@DaMann: The RE told her to start her pricing for assessed value. But you make a good point,(Assessed values do not dictate the price.) its only worth what someone is willing to pay!
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May 30th, 2012 at 2:53 pm 64
@Troll: I’m having a hard time figuring out how Europe’s financial distortions measurably affect BC. Given the amount of trade between EU and BC it seems, well, remote.
IMO the big story over the next 5 or so years will be China. Now there’s a country with some solid economic ties to BC.
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May 30th, 2012 at 3:02 pm 65
@jesse:
The pumpers need some external event to blame for a downturn and Greece fits the bill.
Blaming China would mean admitting that the “Rich Chinese” line they’ve been peddling was BS.
If the pumpers had been claiming that “Rich Greeks” were moving the market, they’d blame China.
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May 30th, 2012 at 3:03 pm 66
@jesse:
Me too. But if I started spitballing, I’d say the Euro effect would be felt many through the banking sector. In fact it already is by supressing bond yields here. My guess is that at some point if the whole thing blows and you get sovereign defaults and bank failures over there, there’s going to be some spillover on this side of the pond which could affect credit availability which would most definitely put a crimp on housing prices. So counter-intuitively, small Euro problems = upwards pressure on prices. Big Euro problems = downwards pressure on prices. We’ll see if the incrementalist Euros keep it contained to the former.
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May 30th, 2012 at 3:14 pm 67
@jesse:
Agreed. So what do you think are the possible scenarios playing out there and how do they affect our RE market? Is it all bad?
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May 30th, 2012 at 3:15 pm 68
@Troll: I’m having a hard time figuring out how Europe’s financial distortions measurably affect BC. Given the amount of trade between EU and BC it seems, well, remote.
There might not be a direct affect. But if trade between the EU affects the US it’ll affect Canada and BC… we live in global economy, with global trade. If one of trading partners is affected by the situation in Greece it’ll affect us.
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May 30th, 2012 at 3:20 pm 69
Does anyone have a good read on foreclosure activity on Vancouver Island and the Okanagan? I would be surprised if banks really started constricting credit in earnest without a smoking gun such as a foreclosure spike. It now appears to be long enough into the decline for lower prices to start impacting loss severity in these regions. Any bank you talk to has apparently been able to hide these in the portfolio up until now. I’m just trying to guess when these might start hitting reported financial results.
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May 30th, 2012 at 3:25 pm 70
@Troll:
“In fact it already is by supressing bond yields here.”
Speaking of bond yields, the 10yr closed at 1.79% today, after reaching as low as 1.77% this morning.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GCAN10YR:IND
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May 30th, 2012 at 3:28 pm 71
Teranet published data today up-to-date for month end April, 2012 (No more 2 month lag)
Note: the index is higher on a YoY and MoM basis, however, sales on a YoY basis are down 60% or so – Victoria is in a similar boat.
The index rise in monthly prices was relatively small, as in, no violent upside swings. That with: The volume is drying up and the Vancouver home price averages have already turned lower.
If this were any other asset class you wouldn’t buy on the technicals.
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May 30th, 2012 at 3:29 pm 72
@Troll: ” So what do you think are the possible scenarios playing out there and how do they affect our RE market?”
This is all IMO. I’m no expert.
I think China is akin to Japan 25 years ago — massive investment boom and surpluses being exported by the way of FDI — and it’s only a matter of time before their GDP growth slows substantially. I do remember some of the fallout from Japan hitting the wall and it was treacherous — foreign capital was sold off to cover shortfalls on home soil; ultimately what happens at home matters more than abroad, it is still where most well-heeled expats of these investment-focused countries have their financial futures.
Despite all the “miracles” and “catch up” China is purported to have, it’s still a country with weak rule of contract law, large social stratification, and obvious corruption. That will weigh it down. I give it 5 years.
How does that affect Canada? In terms of exports it means a significant downturn, though maybe not for oil. That will hit the CAD and doesn’t bode well for employment. In terms of interest rates I don’t know but that 30 year real return is mighty low. I wouldn’t bet against it. In terms of Vancouver and other pockets of coastal NA RE I think it’s not good.
Again, I could be wrong.
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May 30th, 2012 at 3:33 pm 73
@Troll: “if the whole thing blows and you get sovereign defaults and bank failures over there, there’s going to be some spillover on this side of the pond”
The way I look at it, if you have an asset class that is fundamentally overvalued and being propped up by an unsustainable source of capital, the triggers that cause a crash are mostly academic.
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May 30th, 2012 at 3:49 pm 74
@HAMSolo
try this link for foreclosures in the OK–the last paragraph in the story is another “keeper”
http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120314/bc_okanagan_real_estate_foreclosure_120314/20120314?hub=BritishColumbiaHome
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May 30th, 2012 at 3:55 pm 75
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: More like the risk of renting out part of your own home.
The guy looked like the perfect tenant. Old enough to be past the party-hardy stage, single, clean-cut, employed in a job that assumes some kind of responsibility (and not so well paying he’d buy a place), and healthy enough not to look like a crackhead. You never really know who you are letting live under your roof.
If you must be landlord, do it at arms length so tenants don’t know where you live
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May 30th, 2012 at 3:57 pm 76
@jesse:
Maybe, but I still believe that the type of trigger can have a big effect on how quickly or slowly a crash or correction plays out and how effective attempts to soften it will be. I don’t think that’s inconsequential, though Patriotz and others seem to dismiss it. I kinda think it’s like whether a speeding car that’s run out of gas comes to a stop by gently tapping the brakes or by quickly engaging the e-brake.
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May 30th, 2012 at 4:03 pm 77
Anyone here remember Vancouver in 1974? Not me really, a bit too early. But I have clear memories from the late 70s.
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/100years/Video+take+bike+ride+through+Vancouver+1974/6701778/story.html
(view the lower video)
A few things I noticed about the real estate: lack of Vancouver Specials in East Van, old motels that used to stand by the North Van onramp to Lions Gate bridge, and construction of the False Creek co-ops. You also hear a news report about rent controls of the Dave Barrett NDP government.
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May 30th, 2012 at 4:04 pm 78
@Troll:
“though Patriotz and others seem to dismiss it.”
I’ve been saying for some time on this blog that a China bust would have negative impacts across all economic sectors in Western Canada.
The real issue, as I’ve pointed out, is whether you’re talking about something that has a real connection to the Canadian economy or just some convenient scapegoat.
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May 30th, 2012 at 4:05 pm 79
@jesse
“How does that affect Canada? In terms of exports it means a significant downturn, though maybe not for oil. ”
looking at todays performance of oil we would get less and less for each barrel of oil. Also important thing is that EROEI on unconventional oil that we export more and more is very high. does not look good.
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May 30th, 2012 at 4:30 pm 80
@mac: …She probably bought it in the 70s for 75K and who cares if she gets 975K or 30K more? It’s not worth it.
Well, I would care if it was me. Are you suggesting that people should turn down money? Hmmm my BS/hypocrite detector just broke a needle.
Somewhere there’s a nut job out there that just (if the deal goes through) paid way to much for a house. Not sure you can blame Granny for that.
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May 30th, 2012 at 4:34 pm 81
@patriotz: …..Blaming China would mean admitting that the “Rich Chinese” line they’ve been peddling was BS…..
Being concerned about having to admit anything would imply a conscience. We are talking about Real Estate professionals aren’t we?
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May 30th, 2012 at 4:54 pm 82
@Patiently Waiting:
Where’s all the street hockey? A couple of weeks ago people were moaning that nobody plays anymore. Looks like nobody played in ’74 either.
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May 30th, 2012 at 4:57 pm 83
@condo watcher: ….there’s reasons why we’re on a bit of a downturn, and once everything gets sorted out then everything will be good again,” he said…..
Yep, when things get better, then things will be better. I’m sure that Pulitzer material.
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May 30th, 2012 at 5:08 pm 84
@Anonymous: My sentiments exactly!
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May 30th, 2012 at 5:29 pm 85
@Troll:
The end result is the same except one takes longer to get there than the other. The car still stops…
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May 30th, 2012 at 5:32 pm 86
New Listings 252
Price Changes 147
Sold Listings 214
TI:18883
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
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May 30th, 2012 at 5:42 pm 87
@paulb.: Wow, huge sold day. Are all the Grandma’s cashing out?
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May 30th, 2012 at 5:48 pm 88
@Anonymous: Well, in my case, it was in a paved back lane (and adjoining driveways). People didn’t play on streets that had any kind of regular traffic, as far as I recall.
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May 30th, 2012 at 5:49 pm 89
Thanks PaulB for the updates!
Definitely wasn’t expecting that big a sell day.
Hopefully the next few days won’t be as hot, so we can reach 19000 at month end.
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May 30th, 2012 at 5:50 pm 90
oops didn’t realize today was the 30th.
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May 30th, 2012 at 5:51 pm 91
@paulb.:
this danged thing is like dracula. Just when you think it s down for the count, up it comes again, driven by cheapo money, tax-payer insurance and HAM
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May 30th, 2012 at 5:52 pm 92
@900kCrackHouse: Its weird how we have the occasional high sales day, surrounding by many really low sales days. I wonder why.
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May 30th, 2012 at 6:15 pm 93
@frank:
“this danged thing is like dracula. Just when you think it s down for the count, up it comes again, driven by cheapo money, tax-payer insurance and HAM”
LOL!!! Your analogy also describes a part of my anatomy. Except it is driven by cheapo broads, lack of assurance and RUM.
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May 30th, 2012 at 6:25 pm 94
TI: 18883. Five sales short of the luckiest inventory of all time.
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May 30th, 2012 at 6:55 pm 95
Just been reading about Eurozone worries and found this interesting article.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/30/london-house-prices-eurozone-collapse
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May 30th, 2012 at 7:04 pm 96
@paulb.:
Big sales day. I’d be willing to be that there is a fair amount of seller capitulation in terms of taking lower offers for their properties.
Of course the idiot buyers think they’re getting a deal.
Really can’t wait to see the May stats.
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May 30th, 2012 at 7:09 pm 97
@paulb.: Paulb’s post is not very popular tonight…
I wonder what the expiry effect will be on the inventory in a few days.
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May 30th, 2012 at 7:10 pm 98
steadily adding on to listings. Slow and steady that’s what we like
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May 30th, 2012 at 7:20 pm 99
I hope I’m the only one in Vancouver not dropping their price.
Twenty cash, same as every Saturday night. No hst.
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May 30th, 2012 at 7:22 pm 100
One day does not a trend make –
Wait and see, I wouldn’t be surprised if tomorrow is reversion back to the mean day.
Remember – Teranet sales pairs down 60% YoY
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May 30th, 2012 at 8:05 pm 101
Same House -> Typo??
7:07 PM $529000 5br – House for sale, 3 bath, 2500 sf (Burnaby)
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reb/2998696069.html
7:41 PM $348800 Un-Believable House! (BC)
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reb/3038441487.html
Typo or not posting the same house for sale 30 mins apart smacks of desperation :O
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May 30th, 2012 at 8:09 pm 102
xyz,
Don’t you have better things to do with your time than to post such asinine drivel? Are you snorting coke?
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May 30th, 2012 at 8:35 pm 103
@McLovin:
Well that was unexpected… considering my posts count is miles below yours.. Must be a few beers in and feeling a bit randy…
At least my post was on topic
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May 30th, 2012 at 8:37 pm 104
@real_professional: “One day does not a trend make”
Except when it works in the bears’ favour.
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May 30th, 2012 at 9:03 pm 105
A 200+ sales day. I forgot they sometimes go that high. ‘s been a while.
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May 30th, 2012 at 9:07 pm 106
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-30/australia-housing-escapes-peril-on-undersupply-mortgages.html
200k for a plot of land sydney say northern beaches almost sounds like paradise and people think they have a bubble
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May 30th, 2012 at 9:11 pm 107
Yesterday I said we’re plateauing and got voted down, today I maintain I was right. The trend is your friend.
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May 30th, 2012 at 9:32 pm 108
@mattymatt123:
(It is a crash! and going to get worse!offer: 1mill 10thousand not 1mill 1hundred and 10thousand. Is -190,000 from tax assessment. That’s a lot of money! And the buyer is a 30 some WHITE guy! Not Chinese)
Sorry i didn’t expect white vancouvrite are as stupid as our compatriots whose collective and herding mentality has done a great deal of harm to China and the world.Why would white Vancouverites fall in the same Sino mentality?
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May 30th, 2012 at 9:33 pm 109
Copied from PaulB’s number. Thank you PaulB.
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
http://tinyurl.com/paulsfacebookpage
Using good-format’s format.
Date List Price+- Sold Xpired Inv Inv+- S/L% 12.04.30 316 179 124 17530 75 39 12.05.01 354 144 179 583 17122 -408 51 12.05.02 371 131 150 100 17243 121 36 12.05.03 339 159 121 61 17400 157 36 12.05.04 337 120 77 68 17592 192 23 12.05.07 353 177 90 128 17727 135 25 12.05.08 365 157 183 86 17823 96 50 12.05.09 337 145 183 60 17917 94 54 12.05.10 318 129 115 47 18073 156 36 12.05.11 262 132 81 78 18176 103 31 12.05.14 268 168 150 112 18182 6 56 12.05.15 287 174 95 100 18274 92 33 12.05.16 271 185 204 141 18200 -74 75 12.05.17 270 127 70 94 18306 106 26 12.05.18 328 106 135 80 18419 113 41 12.05.22 381 255 120 151 18529 110 31 12.05.23 313 146 137 70 18635 106 44 12.05.24 289 158 149 108 18667 32 52 12.05.25 288 174 78 77 18800 133 27 12.05.28 295 201 130 123 18842 42 44 12.05.29 288 169 112 95 18923 81 39 12.05.30 252 147 214 78 18883 -40 85 Total-Cur 6566 3304 2773 2440 1353 43 5 day-avg 288 166 137 92 59 48 List Price+- Sold Xpired Inv Inv+- S/L%Like or Dislike:
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May 30th, 2012 at 9:41 pm 110
Today was admittedly not a great day for the bears… so here is a story to warm your hearts…
Straight from our bull friends over at RETalks:
More sales might mean lower prices indeed…
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May 30th, 2012 at 9:49 pm 111
@mattymatt123: Not to disagree too firmly (here comes the firm disagreement) but I was lowballed and really didn’t fight too hard. In the end it was 15K-20K than we had wanted but we had doubled our money, so who cares.
Why are people so sensitive over small losses of perceived gains in real estate when you would grumble for 2 seconds and take the loss in stocks only to move on to another investment. I really don’t get it.
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May 30th, 2012 at 10:47 pm 112
@mac: “Why are people so sensitive over small losses of perceived gains in real estate when you would grumble for 2 seconds and take the loss in stocks only to move on to another investment. I really don’t get it.”
Mac, you clearly don’t have the backbone to negotiate the best deal. If you would sell anything for 30K less than you could sell it for, then I suggest you have someone manage theses things for you. Even if the transaction is large, 30K is a chunk of change. Only a moron would pass on that. Clearly the grandma made the right decision because she ended up with 30K more than you would have accepted. How could you argue different. Maybe you are just trying to justify your own bad decisions of the past.
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May 30th, 2012 at 10:48 pm 113
Talked to a friend tonight who just moved into a rental apartment at UBC. Building is two years old and floors are already sagging, so much that her closet doors keep opening by themselves, and drawers have a hard time staying closed…
Market value? $700,000, for a wood frame condo on leased land. What a DEAL!
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May 30th, 2012 at 10:58 pm 114
@Makaya: “Today was admittedly not a great day for the bears…”
Although tracking total inventory makes some sense, looking at sales vs listing on a daily basis is virtually meaningless. The sales posted today are all sales from offers made up to weeks ago that have just been posted today. Listings are a combination of new listings, relisting expired listings and canceled then relisted properties in an attempt to make them look like new listings.
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May 30th, 2012 at 11:53 pm 115
Could Canada somehow follow this path?
http://mobile.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-30/australia-housing-escapes-peril-on-undersupply-mortgages
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May 30th, 2012 at 11:56 pm 116
Late in the day so perhaps not many will see this. Today was a surprise. Before this “pop” we were going to be down in units over prior month. Now, not so likely. In any case, one stat which should make everyone think is that prices are down in a statistically meaningful way, with average selling price now down to levels not seen really for over a year. We almost have to see a decrease in HPI this month (other than Apartment). Wait for the Larry Y graphs on Friday and see how the price decrease is pretty strong in detached and in townhouse.
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May 31st, 2012 at 2:14 am 117
New court-ordered sale in Coquitlam today:
2295 Parkway Blvd, Coquitlam MLS® V953759
Listing price: $595,000
Assessed: $1,139,000
2008 sale price: $1,450,000
7 Bedroom, 4 Full Bath, 1 Half Bath
3,894 Sq Ft. 10,010 Sq Ft Lot. Built 2001
Grow-op? Haunted? Full water damage?
“BUILDER’S, RENOVATER’S SPECIAL! Here’s your chance to redo the interior of this 3 level, 3900 sq ft home. This home offers 7 bedrooms, 5 bathrooms, 3 fireplaces, 3 decks, covered patio and 2 kitchens (legal suite). Large 10,010 sq ft lot has green belt on 2 sides and faces the Golf course. ”
http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/listing?id=259517450
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