Whistlers nasty collapse

They say bubbles inflate from the center, working their way out to peripheral areas. They then tend to collapse in reverse with outlying areas crashing first as the equity vacuum works its way back to the center.

Right now Vancouver is seeing unseasonably high listings and lower than normal sales. Prices are softening, but there’s no dramatic crash yet.

Meanwhile Vancouver Island, The Sunshine Coast and the BC interior are all seeing dramatic price drops.

Just north of us you’ll find Whistler BC, the ski resort where prices just keep on melting. The Village Whisperer points out this 65% asking price drop since 2005.

On a similar note Makaya pointed out this delightful instance of Whistler bottom-calling in 2010. The supposition was that since prices had been dropping, they wouldn’t any more.

For people expecting the real estate prices in Whistler to drop after the Olympics, I’m afraid you’re going to be sorely disappointed.
According to George Klimock from The Whistler Real Estate Company, property prices in Whistler today are already 15-25% lower than previous prices in 2007. In fact, current prices in Whistler are down to 2001 levels.
With a high level of inquiries and good prices, Whistler is considered to good value in the resort market, with, for example, a 2 bedroom condo is now listed at $ 519,000 as opposed to the more expensive $ 630,000 a few years earlier.

Meanwhile prices just keep sliding down the mountain..

UPDATE: The whistler bottom-calling article linked above is not currently working. Ant saved a copy of it here on Vancouver Peak.

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The Ant
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Troll
Guest
Troll

@Crash Crowley: Well if you couldn’t identify the crash in the US in 2008, after the CS 10 city index plunged 25% in 2 years, then I can’t help you.

The US in 2008 is a far cry from where Van RE stands today.

Dyugle
Guest
Dyugle

Would people living in Seattle see it coming in 2008?

Maverick
Guest
Maverick

@Troll:

Correct. The US in 2008 is not comparable to Van RE today.

The correct comparison is to the US in 2006.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Case-Shiller_index.png

Village Whisperer
Member
Village Whisperer

Thanks Ant.

Can you take a screen shot from the cache? It would be great to have the visual too.

If you can, please send the shot to me at village_whisperer@live.ca

The Ant
Member
Village Whisperer
Member
Village Whisperer

Perfect Ant.

If we can get a wider shot of the whole article that would be nice too, but the one you have is very good.

Thanks.

Firkin
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Firkin

19k today?

😀

The Ant
Member

@Village Whisperer: If I go full screen I can just get all the text in, I’ve posted that as well: http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/general-chatter/forum/topic/whistler-bottom-calling/?#post-2424

VCI Admin
Admin

@The Ant: Thanks, we’ve added the cache link to the main article.

And for those that are interested http://vancouverpeak.com now has open registration.

patriotz
Member
@Dyugle: Seattle was the last US market to peak in mid-2007, and a year later common sentiment was still that it was immune to declines. For example this post from Seattle Bubble: “One common refrain lately among real estate agents desperate to put a positive spin on the local market is that potential home buyers in the Seattle area are just being frightened by all the bad national news on the housing market. The local market is doing just fine, and would be even better if only everyone would stop paying attention to the national stories.” If you ever listen to the Dave Ramsey radio show, or watch his Fox Channel TV show, he says much the same thing. He affects this exaggerated voice and mimics hyperbole (“The sky is falling! The sky is falling!”), then assures his audience that… Read more »
Ironic
Guest
Ironic

If you ever listen to the Dave Ramsey radio show, or watch his Fox Channel TV show, he says much the same thing. He affects this exaggerated voice and mimics hyperbole (“The sky is falling! The sky is falling!”), then assures his audience that the sky is not falling, that real estate is “local” doing OK here and there (except for some rough spots in places), and advises the sconcerned segment of his audience to stop reading the newspapers or ignore the national media.

______

So ignore the national media? So ignore him right since he is “media”? That is one bright bulb…

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Guest
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs

The risks of being a landlord:

“A man who may have a connection to the sushi restaurant murders and who is accused of shooting his landlord last night in Burnaby is armed and unstable, say police, and residents from Metro Vancouver to Vancouver Island are being warned to watch out for the former security guard…He is wanted in connection with the attempted murder of a 51-year-old Burnaby man who was shot last night in front of his home located in the 4400 block of Gilpin Crescent in Burnaby. The victim, a former landlord of Mitchell, survived the shooting but is in hospital in serious condition.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Armed+dangerous+loose+Burnaby/6701869/story.html

Anonymous
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Anonymous

@mattymatt123:

Grandma is pissed because she sold her east van special for over a million? Not to be rude but that’s just pure greed. What did she buy it for? $1? Wow…

Paying over a million for an east van special is not what I call a bubble popping. Patience people, we have a long way to go. Expect another year of 1% here and there of declines. It takes a while for it to “sink in”

DaMann
Member
DaMann

whoops, last one was me

Meh
Guest
Meh

@mattymatt123: In a couple of years, your Grandma will be joyfully boasting about getting out at such a good price. She did the right thing, working with the first and best offer.

Troll
Guest
Troll
@Maverick: Well it’s obvious to anyone that the market has definitely slowed. But it’s a leap to suggest that the data shows we are on the precipice of a US style crash, or that we are already experiencing one as some bears have suggested. See how things play out over the summer. I see three plausible scenarios: 1) Lots of folks pull listings waiting for a better time, which means you have to wait another year for a crash. 2) Listings stay high and sales low but no external shock. A slow unwinding of high prices. 3) Listings stay high, sales low and some external shock (ie recession, Euro zone explosion etc.) and then perhaps you get the start of a US style drop in prices. Right now Euro-shock is the one I’d be watching. A slow motion train wreck… Read more »
Lumbach
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Lumbach

@Troll:
“Well it’s obvious to anyone that the market has definitely slowed. But it’s a leap to suggest that the data shows we are on the precipice of a US style crash”

How is it a stretch? The US crash (and every other RE crash) started with a serious market slowdown.

As another poster pointed out, you would never be able to call the beginning of a crash and you would only identify it when it was arealdy half way to the bottom.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@mattymatt123:

1.11 million still a etremely good fortune for patient owner.Not bad for a 30 yrs old Vancouver special.Can’at say it is a crash in East Vancouver.East Van is mainly supportted by Chinese wage earners and it is a safe island within the storm.price will be stagnant and stable,not a crash man.

Troll
Guest
Troll

@Lumbach:

How is it a stretch? The US crash (and every other RE crash) started with a serious market slowdown.

Sure, but not every slowdown has developed into a crash. Your reasoning is backwards, kind of like the old saying that some metric has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Ironic:
Fox Channel TV is not a media but a right-wing anti black,color,non-anglo saxon white and Portestan Christian propaganda mouth pc

Lumbach
Guest
Lumbach

@Troll:

The fact remains that with your criteria, you would be late to the crash party.

By the way many commentators in the financial media say that the beginning of 2008 was a lot like the beginning of 2012 – commodities slowdown, soft bank runs, serous insolvency issues of very large entities. It didn’t hit the fan until September 2008, if you can recall.

Troll
Guest
Troll

@Lumbach:

The fact remains that with your criteria, you would be late to the crash party.

Sure, why do I need to be early?

patriotz
Member

@Troll:
“Sure, but not every slowdown has developed into a crash.”

How about every slowdown with median house price > 10x median household income and ownership costs >2x renting? Getting warmer?