Condo holes across Vancouver

Much has been made about the huge number of condo towers under construction in Toronto, but here in much tinier Vancouver we’re not doing so bad.

There are currently 16 towers in progress and 67 more in the works.

With population growth and prices on the retreat will there be enough buyers for all these new units or are we over-saturating the condo market?

Cameron Muir says don’t worry:

“Prices have been pretty flat since 2009,” Muir said. “There’s ample supply in the market place, but we are seeing prices at a steady pace.”

The fact more condos than single-detached homes are being built in Greater Vancouver is nothing new, said Muir, as condo starts have consistently made up about 75 per cent of all housing starts in the last several years. “It’s a function of land supply.”

Consumer demand during the last several months is trending on a 10 to 15 year average, he added.
One indicator, says Muir, of the demand-and-supply balance in the marketplace is the sales-to-new-listings ratio.

In Vancouver last month, the ratio, at 15.3 per cent, inched closer to a buyer’s market – but sits within the balanced range of between 15 to 20 per cent.

There hasn’t been a sustained buyer’s market since the recession hit, between late 2008 to early 2009.

..And of course it’s starting to smell like 08/09 again with the Eurocrisis and global economic sluggishness, but is it different this time?

Here’s one thing that’s different: Out in Burnaby yet another condo presale had a lineup, but what a waste of time for the participants according to VMD:

re: polygon’s “MODA” presale in Burnaby that opened today, with some people camping since Monday…

sold today: 138
total units: 249
ratio: 55%

yawn.

Wow. Can you imagine waiting in line for a week for something that sells only 55% of inventory?

Fizzle.

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[…] from the 30 pairs of shoes and multiple offers you would have seen not too long ago.” – MEM at VCI 25 Jun 2012 at 1:52pm Share: This entry was posted in 08. Overextended Buyers, 09. Delaying Buying, 11. Regrets about […]

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Anonymous: “Firstline are still advertising 35yr “extended amortization” too.”

Firstline is shutdown. Moron.

BTW the new mortgage rules have not taken effect yet. Check when they are in effect for a month or so.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Anonymous: “Why is everyone downvoting the statement that you can still find 35 year mortgages?”

Because they’re morons. Firstline are still advertising 35yr “extended amortization” too.

oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2
A report from the front lines of the Okanagan RE meltdown. I spent the weekend there and saw a flood of “For Sale” signs all around–Kelowna, Vernon, Penticton, etc. I spent a night in Keremeos and on just one street (about five blocks long, with maybe 75-80 homes in total) I must have seen about 15 for sale signs, all of which had “price reduced” (or “price reduction”–can’t remember) on them. Yikes! It’s going to get even uglier there. I picked up the G&M on Saturday and the articles regarding the change in mortgage rules were quite a sight for this RE bear. One of the articles, however, was pure gold. Here’s the link Roger Winsor, a realtor in Labrador City, Nfld., said he understands the government is trying to “help people control their impulses and stop overspending” but questions… Read more »
condo watcher
Guest
condo watcher

@Tackey Tocker
rent increases were covered here a few weeks back — try here

http://www.tvslandlordblog.com/tips/british-columbia-announces-rent-increase-guideline-for-2012/

jesse
Member

@Tacky Tocker: The allowable increase is 4.3%.

Some landlords will be raising it at the maximum because they bought buildings with tenants who have been paying below market for years. This will go some way to recovering the difference. And landlords who have tenants moving out can raise the rent to whatever they want for the new tenants.

jesse
Member

@VMD: The TD mortgage calculator is still allowing 30 years. We’ll know for sure when it won’t allow amorts greater than 25 years 😉

Last time max amortizations covered under government-underwritten MI were dropped the banks followed, though they still offer longer terms on a small scale.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Why is everyone downvoting the statement that you can still find 35 year mortgages? They are easily available form numerous sources primarily provincially regulated lenders such as credit unions. Call Coast Capital or Vancity and you’ll understand how little has actually changed.

https://www.coastcapitalsavings.com/Personal/Borrowing/Mortgages/First_Time_Home_Buyers/Mortgage_Glossary/
“Amortization Period
The number of years over which you will repay the entire amount you borrowed. The most common mortgage amortization period is 25 years, but it can be as long as 35 years. It should not be confused with the term of your mortgage.”

Tacky Tocker
Guest
Tacky Tocker

Curious, anyone know what the allowable percentage of rent increase is this year? As long as mine doesnt exceed 30% its still cheaper to rent.

If you know please do tell!

VMD
Member

@mac: thanks for the juicy gossip. Promptly translated and broadcast into Chinese forums.

If the non-CMHC loans are going to be conforming to Flaherty’s new rules, then even the people with higher DP will be affected (well, except those paying 100% cash.. but how many people do that these days?)

Specuskeptic
Member

@900kCrackHouse: Crowdfunding is a good idea – pop the psychological/information bubble as a precursor to the RE one. Like. I believe there is a wiki connected to this site? *cough….

Lionel Hutz
Guest
Lionel Hutz

“the word on the street is Flaherty got wind that BMO was about to launch a 5-yr mortgage at 2.09% and he flipped.”

Thanks BMO! Let’s hope another bank comes up with something equally ridiculous and Flaherty ups the downpayment requirement. I’m actually hoping the TO market continues to go climb and Flaherty goes on a hulk-like rampage.

From that G&M article…I still can’t believe that a 10% DP is considered such a drastic measure that it would sink RE. Shows how leveraged this house of cards is.

watson
Guest
watson

@Anonymous: Good… hopefully next the douchebags will be forced to sell their Canadian real estate.

Maverick
Guest
Maverick

@Re-diculous:

Honestly, when has a soft landing ever been engineered.

Just doesn’t happen.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Anonymous: “Don’t know about the rest of Norway, but in Oslo, there are quite a few.”

There is a total of 8,458 Chinese immigrants in the whole of Norway. That is just behind the number of Eritrean and Moroccan immigrants in Norway.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Norway

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Romeo Jordan: No we handle our finance much better than white folks who squander their meager income in drug and hard spirit…………that is why Van belongs to us no for whites anymore.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@mac: “The banks (like hers) may choose to no longer offer 30 year mortgages on non-CMHC-insured mortgages. ”

You can still find 35yr mortgages…

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Romeo Jordan:
Really,liar

mac
Member
mac
Here’s some bearish gossip for you as you wait for the decline. A friend of mine, who used to work in banking, called his old boss who is now in Alberta. He called her about the mortgage changes because he is gleefully waiting for prices to deflate and wanted to solicit her opinion. She said something along the lines of hang onto your hats. The banks (like hers) may choose to no longer offer 30 year mortgages on non-CMHC-insured mortgages. They are intending to comply not just with the letter of the OFSI guidelines but with the spirit of what Flaherty is trying to achieve. That’s because… Apparently, the word on the street is Flaherty got wind that BMO was about to launch a 5-yr mortgage at 2.09% and he flipped. He was already pissed at the endless development he… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Anon 83 wrote: “You would have a hard time finding a Chinese person in Norway BTW”

Don’t know about the rest of Norway, but in Oslo, there are quite a few.

condo watcher
Guest
condo watcher

@Apocarypse now
“Re: The “homeowners” lost”. They weren’t homeowners if they didn’t have title yet. And if they lost, then the contract, which was written by the developer, allowed them to lose.”
the homeowners were no different than pre sales purchasers today–they have no title also—it wasn’t the contract that allowed them to lose –it was the lack of consumer protection laws that allowed them to fail
the Riverbend purchasers got screwed–did you read the article
The price upon completion has nothing to do with the OV purchasers seeking legal remedy–the developer can change the original disclosure statement all they want ie: extend the occupancy date etc, but it’s the method in which the purchaser is notified that is under dispute–google REDMA– the developers have not been doing it legally

Romeo Jordan
Guest
Romeo Jordan

The Chinese will sell these cars and buy fancier ones.

Rinse and repeat.

Romeo Jordan
Guest
Romeo Jordan

June will be the fourth month in a row that prices will be down.

July will be the fifth.

Get used to it.

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo

@ BPOM

Chinese must be selling their cars to free up cash for Canadian RE purchases. LOL!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

“Yes, Norway. They’re as stupid as we are!”

The housing bubble is global. There are still many bubbles to pop including Norway and Canada. Everyone is at rock bottom interest rates and the result is similar.

You would have a hard time finding a Chinese person in Norway BTW. Most of their immigrants are Polish.