Friday Free-for-all!
It’s the end of another work week and the start of another month! Hope you paid your rent and your mortgage bills and still have money in the bank.
The month of May wrapped up with higher than normal listings and lower than normal sales. We’ll have to wait to see what the official word is, but it sounds like we may see a bit of softening in some detached prices and little bump up in condo prices.
Let’s do our regular end of the week news round-up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend! Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:
-MOI 6.66, the MOI of the beast
-Inventory graph back into record high
-Teranet sales pair dries up
-Will bloggers ruin the perfect market?
-Okanagon sees huge foreclosure spike
-How much is your commute?
-Building jobs boom
-Van Commercial RE booms
-RBC: Ownership costs climbing
-Rising prices means confidence for Toronto
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So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
June 1st, 2012 at 12:49 am 1
Whistler is a stupid party town and yes I don’t waste my time paying for the privilege of repeatedly sliding off a hill. If i wanted to waste my time I’d rather get wasted. And I don’t need to go to Whistler to do that.
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June 1st, 2012 at 1:14 am 2
“A spokesman for the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board argued that the current five-per-cent rate of foreclosure sales isn’t that high”
…compared to what is coming?
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June 1st, 2012 at 5:53 am 3
The Australian property market took a big hit in May despite the 50 basis point interest rate cut at the start of the month. Prices were down 1.4% in the latest RP data index (the biggest fall they’ve ever recorded) and are now 5.5% lower than a year ago.
Not even Sydney is immune anymore, down 1.2% in May and 3.6% in the past year.
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June 1st, 2012 at 7:06 am 4
5y down, corporate lending taking a pause, looks like mortgage war drums are beating again even with spreads kicked out.
Time to rebalance my portfolio, damn bond funds are up again.
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June 1st, 2012 at 7:07 am 5
@ Anon
Just because you’re too fat useless to ski, doesn’t mean it’s not worth the money for those of us that enjoy the sport.
On a nice sunny day with a couple feet of fresh, when you’re up near the peak sitting in the snow with a couple buddies, sipping on some single malt from the flask and burning a little of BC’s finest, that’s as close as this province has ever gotten to TBOE.
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June 1st, 2012 at 7:33 am 6
Larry numbers look good! I don’t know about you, but I feel like I have received a 12% raise in the last year.
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June 1st, 2012 at 7:36 am 7
anybody following the carnage on the markets right now?
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June 1st, 2012 at 7:37 am 8
Arrow is one of the few good posters on RET. Here he is uncovering this craigslist gem:
http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=113714&sid=3329b0a9ac82a8a3d49e46ed7f22e6be#p294820
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June 1st, 2012 at 7:47 am 9
For those that are interested, here are the May numbers from Larry’s site and a link to them:
http://tinyurl.com/8xc75xe
“Vancouver’s detached average home prices continued a slow retreat from February’s high of $1,235,244 receding to a current average price of $1,073,331 down 12% YOY.
Two years of gains are on the block as this market approaches the low not seen since November 2010 when the average was $1,043,161.
Telling is that with Active listings are at an all time high of 7,577 units up 23% YOY, and with sales down 24% YOY might imply that a great number of Vancouver home sellers may be running hard in their hope of staying ahead of the train.”
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June 1st, 2012 at 8:20 am 10
Will the dark clouds of the economy make home buyers more cautious?
World stock markets fell Friday as weakness in Chinese manufacturing suggested the slowdown in the world’s No. 2 economy may worsen, unsettling investors ahead of crucial U.S. employment figures.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57445257/world-stocks-fall-as-china-manufacturing-weakens/
China led a slowdown in manufacturing across Asia
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/06/01/bloomberg_articlesM4V9GT0YHQ0X01-M4XJK.DTL#ixzz1wYUIKRAE
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June 1st, 2012 at 8:22 am 11
Anecdotally from Vancouver Island…Comox – an Erickson designed home known as Filberg House listed for $6M back in April. A revisit on MLS tells me the asking price has been halved, in less than 2 months.
Also, there is a brewery for sale in Comox. Original ask about a year or so ago was $2M; now the building/land are listed for 875K, and the brewhouse equipment and company are for sale separately.
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June 1st, 2012 at 8:47 am 12
CND 5 year plummets to 1.08 – there’s a lot of fear and panic out there right now.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GCAN5YR:IND/chart/
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June 1st, 2012 at 9:09 am 13
@Best place on meth: Those bond yields are unbelievable, record lows everywhere. 1.47% for a 10 year US Treasury. Let that sink in for a minute.
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June 1st, 2012 at 9:11 am 14
Our thoughts on the Larry MacDonald Canadian Business article:
Preparing To Blame The Inevitable Canadian RE Crash On The Bears! – “I wish the perma-bears would just go back to their lairs for a really long nap.”
http://wp.me/pcq1o-4fT
Once a speculative mania gets underway, the fact that it will crash is as inevitable as gravity and sunrise.
The villains of a mania, if there are any, are the many parties that contributed to its expansion, not those who point out the nature of that which has developed.
After years of denial, after ignoring mountains of evidence & years of measured arguments from bears, RE bulls are now suggesting that we all follow the path of even more denial. This is a psychologically primitive response and one that should invoke both laughter and sadness in those who hear it.
The woeful thing is that, despite the fact that this is so obviously a ridiculous argument, some will actually end up believing it, and will blame the coming crash on ‘naysayers’. As though if we all simply linked hands and pretended all was good, it would be so.
This is a truly remarkable, preposterous (and, given it’s publication by ‘Canadian Business’, arguably landmark) article. Mr MacDonald appears to be a homeowner who is likely over invested in his home, and whose future financial well-being is consequently under threat, and who is now allowing wishful thinking to blur his ability to weigh the evidence.
The bubble will implode because it’s a bubble, not because people point to it and say “Look, a bubble!”
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June 1st, 2012 at 9:20 am 15
@Troll: “Let that sink in for a minute”
My long bonds likey. How are you weighted? Whaddya think, should I get out now?
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June 1st, 2012 at 9:34 am 16
@Stupid Landlords:
“On a nice sunny day”
Skiing the local mountains means that most of your days will not be sunny. Rain is probably more common. Only about 25% of my whistler ski days have been sunny. Mostly its cloudy.
Just like the “ski, gold and windsurf on the same day” idea is probably only realistically doable on one or two days of the year. And given the May we have had, it was not doable this year.
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June 1st, 2012 at 9:36 am 17
@Troll:
Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the US 10 year end up below 1%.
Nothing was solved after the last financial crisis and western countries are right back to square one only deeper in debt this time.
Add in China to this new crisis and it’s interesting times ahead.
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June 1st, 2012 at 9:44 am 18
@Lumbach
especially on a crappy day like today
ultimately though it is a unique place where there actually is snow and occasionally sun, and if you need more of the latter in a summer like this then drive to the okanagan where I hear it is cheaper to buy re this year – but agree not an argument for stupidly inflated prices not supported by the underlying economy and incomes
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June 1st, 2012 at 9:50 am 19
@vreaa:
I’m guessing Larry must blame doctors for disease and mechanics for car breakdowns.
If only we could prevent people from pointing out problems we could all live in a fantasy world where nothing ever goes wrong.
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June 1st, 2012 at 9:54 am 20
@Lumbach: “Only about 25% of my whistler ski days have been sunny. Mostly its cloudy”
Next time check the forecast before going
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June 1st, 2012 at 10:01 am 21
@CanuckDownUnder: I thought people were claiming that the Australia Market had stopped falling and they had achieved a soft landing? Perhaps they spoke too soon…
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June 1st, 2012 at 10:14 am 22
High Inventory Levels and Low Sales Volumes as Greater Vancouver Enters Summer Market
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE ON VCI
VANCOUVER, B.C. –June 1, 2012 – Sales in Greater Vancouver showed a typical seasonal trend in May but continue to be at low sales volume levels not seen for more than a decade. May showed a pronounced decrease in sales per market day falling from 147 last month to 130 in May. This decrease of 12 per cent compares to the typical average decrease from April to May of 9 per cent. Continued below average sales combined with continued above average listings have resulted in both record high seasonal inventories and near record low sales to listings ratios. Global economic uncertainty, tightening mortgage regulations, cautious buyer sentiment and reduced net immigration rates have reduced overall buyer demand.
May’s total unit sale activity was 2,857 properties. Although this is flat compared to April’s sales, there were 22 market days in May compared to 19 in April and May was the lowest May sales since May 2001. May 2012 sales were 15 per cent below the 3,377 units sold in May 2011 and 5 per cent below May 2008, which was the most recent low for May sales. May’s sale to list ratio of 41% was the second lowest in more than a decade and significantly below the historical average for May of approximately 61%.
GVREB reports that May 2012 continued a negative market sales trend which has existed for the past 10 months and considering expected changes in credit conditions, a recent reduction in the level of foreign buying activity, global financial uncertainty, macro-level demographic changes and continued media coverage of a possible overvalued market, there are no foreseen factors that could change the trend to a positive direction. Failure of current listings to be removed from the market or an immediate reduction in new listing rates will result in measurable price decreases by motivated sellers in the near future. May 2012 also brought significant decreases in average selling prices of detached and attached properties with the average detached price down 13 per cent from its peak in February 2012. During May, the average detached price in the last half of the month was 7 per cent lower than the first half resulting from more pronounced seller discounting in order to complete their sale transaction.
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 6,950 in May. This is approximately 22 per cent above the 10-year listing average for the month of May. Listings in May 2012 represented a 17 per cent increase compared to May 2011 when 5,931 properties were listed for sale and an 1 per cent decrease compared to the 7,014 new listings reported in May 2010.
Greater Vancouver continued to have near seasonal record active listings. At 17,834, the total number of residential property listings in Greater Vancouver increased 8 per cent this month alone and 22 per cent compared to May 2011. Total Months of Inventory now is firmly in buyer’s market territory with approximately 6.2 months of inventory.
The Residential Reference Price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 5.1 per cent to $684,100 in May 2012 from $650,800 in May 2011. We expect that high inventory levels will put pressure on prices and we foresee very little likelihood of higher prices in the near future based on current market conditions.
Sales of detached properties in May 2012 slowed to 1,184, a decrease of 25 per cent from the 1,570 detached sales recorded in May 2011, and a 5 per cent decrease from the 1,256 units sold in April 2010. The larger year/year decrease in sales compared to the attached and apartment markets is due to the higher than normal sales volumes for detached properties in May 2011. The reference price for detached properties increased 5.4 per cent from May 2011 to $1,060,000 but fell from $1,064,800 in the previous month.
Sales of apartment properties reached 1,190 in May 2012, a 3 per cent decrease compared to the 1,228 sales in May 2011, and a decrease of 12 per cent compared to the 1,354 sales in May 2010. The reference price of an apartment property was up 3.0 per cent from May 2011 to $385,000.
Attached property sales in May 2012 totalled 483, a 17 per cent decrease compared to the 579 sales in May 2011, and a 12 per cent decrease from the 546 attached properties sold in May 2010. The reference price of an attached unit increased 0.4 per cent from May 2011 to $480,000.
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June 1st, 2012 at 10:29 am 23
@Anonymous:
“Next time check the forecast before going”
LOL. Ever hear of booking in advance during scheduled holidays?
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June 1st, 2012 at 11:07 am 24
@Lumbach:
“LOL. Ever hear of booking in advance during scheduled holidays?”
LOL. Ever hear of just driving up there for the day?
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June 1st, 2012 at 11:18 am 25
@anonymous
Driving up there for a day is only doable when you’re single and broke. No body that values their time will blow 3 hours driving each direction for a mountain with no evening hills. Don’t forget to add the hour of two of preparation.
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June 1st, 2012 at 11:19 am 26
Some days I feel like sticking a gun in mouth!
Talking to a colleague. Her and her brother were looking at places in my neighborhood last night. He sold his place in the sticks and is now looking to move closer to the city. I asked her why doesn’t he just rent, “he feels that interest rates are going to rise and he wants to lock in a low rate.” Wouldn’t it better to sock away the money and wait for rates to rise, values to decrease and then buy, I asked. “Over the long term real estate never goes down besides there is so much money coming over here.”
The rent for my one bedroom is $1,550 and similar apartments are listed for $490k. meaning it would cost me almost $3,000 a month to own a comparable apt. — based on 5% down with a 5-year fixed at 4% with a 25 year amort.
I am so very, very tired of being wrong about Vancouver’s RE market. It appears that there is just no shortage of people who truly believe that we are running out land, that real estate always goes up and that everyone wants live here.
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June 1st, 2012 at 11:22 am 27
@Lumbach:
“And given the May we have had, it was not doable this year.”
Get real, we’ve had some fantastic sunny days this year. Don’t believe me? Check out the photos of the Vancouver Marathon from May 5th. On top of that Cypress had its longest ever season this year.
Still, haters gotta hate.
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June 1st, 2012 at 11:25 am 28
@SourLemon:
“No body that values their time will blow 3 hours driving each direction for a mountain with no evening hills. Don’t forget to add the hour of two of preparation.”
Three hours each way? Two hours of preparation? Exaggerate much?
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June 1st, 2012 at 11:48 am 29
@Anonymous:
“May 5″
Ok, so you have identified one nice day this year. Great work!
“Cypress had its longest ever season this year”
That means more of precipitation than normal and and more cold days then normal.
If you think that is nice weather, I have a 2003 Toyota Corolla to sell you for $50,000 because your standards of “nice” are really low.
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June 1st, 2012 at 11:52 am 30
@Anonymous:
“LOL. Ever hear of just driving up there for the day?”
LOL. Ever hear of, “I rent so I can afford to stay in a hotel and go away for the weekend unlike those stupid owners who have no disposable income and can only go to whistler if they drive up for the day because they are too broke to stay the night.”
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June 1st, 2012 at 11:53 am 31
@Anonymous:
“LOL. Ever hear of just driving up there for the day?”
BTW, I gave that up when I graduated university and got a job and could afford a hotel room.
I guess when you own a house, you make sacrifices.
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June 1st, 2012 at 11:57 am 32
@Manna from heaven:
There will be plenty who will fall into the “bull trap” over the next year or two.
It will take a while for price drops to become the norm, and when it does, the expectation for prices to drop further will take the place of the past bullish expectation that “RE always goes up”.
RE is a slow moving train. Have patience.
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June 1st, 2012 at 11:59 am 33
@jesse:
Last year I decided to let all my bond funds keep riding. Should I cross my fingers and hope yields will get to 0%?
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June 1st, 2012 at 12:10 pm 34
@Manna from heaven:
“I am so very, very tired of being wrong about Vancouver’s RE market.”
You haven’t been wrong at all. You’ve just pointed out that buying is twice as expensive as renting, there’s no prospect of that changing without a substantial fall in prices, and economically that’s all that matters to the bears.
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June 1st, 2012 at 12:13 pm 35
@Devore:
Maybe you shoul sell? How much upside is left?
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June 1st, 2012 at 12:15 pm 36
““I am so very, very tired of being wrong about Vancouver’s RE market.”
What do you mean you were wrong? Average price is down 12% YOY. It sounds like you were right.
Bears have been wrong so long they can’t recognize when they are right!
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June 1st, 2012 at 12:24 pm 37
@jesse:
For me, I want a sizable bond component and also want to sleep at night, so I went with a short duration bond ladder to minimize rate risk without sacrificing much yield. And I add a little dash of corporate to juice the yield a bit.
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June 1st, 2012 at 12:28 pm 38
today is not bad day on the market if you are bear.
my bear financial etf is up 11%
my bear china etf is up 5%
i miscalculated oil that it could go so down so did not get any bear oil etf..well i don’t know if it is to late?
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June 1st, 2012 at 12:30 pm 39
Hard to say on the bond funds. Those that I hold are still performing well although they seem to be lagging slightly lately and have dropped to just below 9% return. Given the volatility and risk in all the other available options that I can see as reasonable, I would be willing to hold these down to 5-6% return range. That said… I certainly am not an “expert” on these things.
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June 1st, 2012 at 12:32 pm 40
@Lumbach:
If you’re so rich, why don’t you book your weekends last minute to ensure good weather. You pay a premium, but who’s counting?
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June 1st, 2012 at 12:41 pm 41
WFT
I’ve been talking about this longer than I care to remember, since 2006, and while I have been right about every other overvalued RE market — US, Spain, Ireland — I should have levered myself to the hilt and bought a SFH in Vancouver at the time.
If I sold it at the top I would have pocketed at least a cool million tax free. Even if prices do decline 50% from the top I wouldn’t be underwater. That is the sad reality.
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June 1st, 2012 at 12:47 pm 42
@Lumbach: I’m not a skier but I do mtn bike a lot on the Shore and in Squamish, and I thought May was fantastic this year, a ton of sunny days. It was almost too dry actually, a bit of rain is good to keep things tacky.
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June 1st, 2012 at 12:55 pm 43
@Anonymous:
“If you’re so rich, why don’t you book your weekends last minute to ensure good weather. You pay a premium, but who’s counting?”
It sounds like you don’t go on vacation much. Sometimes things are sold out if you don’t book in advance.
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June 1st, 2012 at 1:28 pm 44
@Manna from heaven:
Yeah, and I’m such an idiot also for:
-not buying microsoft in the 80′s
-not betting on the Kings to win the cup this year
-not shorting Nortel in 2000
-not buying US Real Estate in 2000, then selling in 2006
Hindsight is 20/20. If ‘ifs’ were skiffs we’d all be sailors.
All you can do is make the best decision with the information available at the time…
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June 1st, 2012 at 1:29 pm 45
@WFT?: Whistler sold out??? LOL
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June 1st, 2012 at 1:43 pm 46
Looking over my data, the month-end inventory drop on May 31st-June 1st seems quite low historically compared to other month ends. When people sign a contract with a selling agent, what length is the typical term? If it is 6 months, then low delists on May 31st would make sense as few people sign a contract to list in December. Anyone know the answer?
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June 1st, 2012 at 1:51 pm 47
@VHB: I’m also wondering if a listing exprires, then is renewed on the same day, does it show up as a new listing?
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June 1st, 2012 at 2:03 pm 48
@Anonymous: #44
The Kings won the cup?
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June 1st, 2012 at 2:12 pm 49
I’m all for short duration short duration!
This Treasury garbage is getting out of hand – could it be the indicator of the deflation spiral that we have all feared?
I hate treasuries
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June 1st, 2012 at 2:14 pm 50
Homeownership Reduces Your Chances Of Becoming An Entrepreneur.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/31/homeownership-buying-house-entrepreneur_n_1560180.html?ref=business
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June 1st, 2012 at 2:22 pm 51
@Best place on meth: “The Kings won the cup?”
Oops…I wasn’t supposed to say anything. Place your bets or face a lifetime of regret!
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June 1st, 2012 at 2:29 pm 52
10-yr gov’t bond rates around the world:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/ten060112.png
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June 1st, 2012 at 3:07 pm 53
@crashcow:
Those numbers must be from market close yesterday. They’re even lower today.
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June 1st, 2012 at 3:49 pm 54
@Stupid Landlords: “… sitting in the snow with a couple buddies, sipping on some single malt from the flask and burning a little of BC’s finest, that’s as close as this province has ever gotten to TBOE. ”
As much as I enjoy a bowl now and again, I have to say that the portrait you paint above is actually much more epic (and memorable) when your not whacked on blunts (the flask is OK though).
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June 1st, 2012 at 3:54 pm 55
http://www.forbes.com/sites/modeledbehavior/2012/05/30/the-housing-recovery-a-rethink/
That yield is not historically high, it’s about normal.
What’s the gross yield in Vancouver (or elsewhere in Canada)? Anyone think that difference is sustainable?
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June 1st, 2012 at 4:13 pm 56
@SourLemon: “No body that values their time will blow 3 hours driving each direction for a mountain with no evening hills”
What? Seriously? Real mountain ski operations don’t have night skiing. You’d know that if you were a real skier. I guess you’ve spent too much time on the Magic Chair.
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June 1st, 2012 at 4:21 pm 57
@Anonymous:
The point about Whistler (over, say, the North Shore mountains) is the technical terrain, and you can’t enjoy that to its fullest with either a bottle or a blunt involved. If a fellow is baked, he might as well be at Seymour.
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June 1st, 2012 at 4:35 pm 58
Somebody is seriously stuck on the West Side.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3051764634.html
Three (3) houses, all ready to move in.
Good luck!
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June 1st, 2012 at 5:10 pm 59
@Patsan: He can’t even afford to answer his cell phone, he asks that you text him, lol.
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June 1st, 2012 at 5:12 pm 60
@Patsan:
2.836 W 31 AVE. 7BR 6BA 4000 SQF,VERY WELL MAINTAINED,4000SQFT, $4800
Anyone who rents there will have a hard time with ambulance and helicopter
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June 1st, 2012 at 5:12 pm 61
@Patsan: Hahaha. Seriously, how many people in this town can afford $4800/mo rent. Amongst the people who can afford that, how many of them don’t already own a house?
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June 1st, 2012 at 5:46 pm 62
@Patsan:
Did you see the guys e-mail?
songgf8888@gmail.com
Aaaahahaa, what a fuckwit.
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June 1st, 2012 at 5:48 pm 63
New Listings 288
Price Changes 130
Sold Listings 147
TI:18575
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
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June 1st, 2012 at 6:25 pm 64
Wondering what happens to all those listings that are withdrawing that is actually the only source of inventory shrink. Do they just re-list again in August? Do they play a game of re-listing at a lower price in two weeks so they don’t look desperate…how does it work?
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June 1st, 2012 at 6:30 pm 65
@Lumbach:
“Ok, so you have identified one nice day this year. Great work!”
One counter-example was all that was necessary to show that your original comment was total nonsense. In fact, that one nice day was one of many – as another poster has already pointed out to you.
“That means more of precipitation than normal and and more cold days then normal. ”
Obviously precipitation and coldness is exactly what’s required on a ski hill. You’d have been moaning if there’d been less snow, or insufficient cold weather to make it stick around. Face it, you just like complaining.
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June 1st, 2012 at 6:36 pm 66
@Lumbach: ‘LOL. Ever hear of, “I rent so I can afford to stay in a hotel and go away for the weekend unlike those stupid owners who have no disposable income and can only go to whistler if they drive up for the day because they are too broke to stay the night.”’
What happened to “saving the difference” between renting and buying? That’s what all renters do, right? No. Apparently not.
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June 1st, 2012 at 6:41 pm 67
@Patsan:
3847 W 24TH Ave
http://www.livefraservalley.ca/homes/3847-W-24TH-Ave/21328879/
1936 W 35TH AVE
http://realty.vannow.com/Rent-14294.html
I smell HAM.
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June 1st, 2012 at 6:44 pm 68
@Anonymous:
#65/66
If you insist on keeping this retarded ski weather argument going well past the point where it should have been put to death then would you please choose a name so I know who I’m about to bitchslap?
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June 1st, 2012 at 7:40 pm 69
The Okanagan foreclosures article is not new, it is from March 14th and was already posted in this forum.
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June 1st, 2012 at 7:43 pm 70
@Ham Solo: a friend of mine listed his place in Kits for $1.7M. No offers. Dropped the price $100K, still no offers. They withdrew the listing and decided to stay put. That is probably happening in many cases, as people aren’t getting the prices they think they deserve.
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June 1st, 2012 at 7:53 pm 71
OK here’s my confession:
Bought a house in 2003. around $400K in the East side. Sold in 2005 due to personal reasons, for around $600K. Thought I did great.
Thought I will wait out the house market because it is too overvalued. Still waiting. Now that same house is probably valued around $1.1-1.2M.
I still believe it will crash, been following this blog and others for ages. But so far no luck. Been waiting 7 years. Very tough with all the friends and family saying I’m stupid.
However, renting a beautiful house on the west side in a neighbourhood I could never afford to buy in, so life is good overall. Actually living in a house nicer than all my friends and family for the monthly cost of a mortgage on a crack shack in east van.
So not feeling too bad actually! Still looking forward to the crash… hope it happens this year.
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June 1st, 2012 at 7:54 pm 72
Copied from PaulB’s number. Thank you PaulB.
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
http://tinyurl.com/paulsfacebookpage
Using good-format’s format.
Date List Price+- Sold Xpired Inv Inv+- S/L% 12.05.31 258 160 64 196 18881 -2 25 12.06.01 288 130 147 447 18575 -306 51 Total-Jun 288 130 147 447 -306 Jun-Avg 288 130 147 447 -306 51 List Price+- Sold Xpired Inv Inv+- S/L%Like or Dislike:
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June 1st, 2012 at 7:57 pm 73
This is pathetic.
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11965399&PidKey=16221006
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June 1st, 2012 at 8:04 pm 74
@patsan If you google Gary’s phone number, he appears to have quite the portfolio of properties he is trying to rent.
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June 1st, 2012 at 8:04 pm 75
@Best place on meth:
It is basically prepaying your rent!
Best Value in Strathcona! Priced way below assessment! Part of 3 unit complex. No maintenance fee and restrictions. Why rent when you can own! This is a leasehold prepaid strata. All measurements are approx. and to be verified by buyer.The numbers work out! If you rent it out for $1200 for 23 years (whats left on the lease), the rental total is over $330,000!! Plus rent usually goes up as the years pass!
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June 1st, 2012 at 8:14 pm 76
@Anonymous:
You actually save so much mpney that you can save tons and go on vacation too. That’s why renting is so appealing. Give it a try.
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June 1st, 2012 at 8:14 pm 77
@popgoesthebubble:
“Very tough with all the friends and family saying I’m stupid.”
Sorry to be so blunt but your friends and family are assholes.
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June 1st, 2012 at 8:23 pm 78
@Best place on meth:
Oooh the *nice* area of town.. what a deal
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June 1st, 2012 at 8:45 pm 79
@HAM SOLO – expired listings
It is a question whether those listings expirations are high historically? Perhaps vmd has some data on that.
The next question would require better data which probably isn’t easily available, are the expirations of late sitting on the sidelines or just relisting the next day or week at a lower price (actually contributing to the listings increases somewhat falsely)?
So if we knew that if the expirations are high historically and that the expirations are not coming back to the market immediately, then I think we can conclude that there is disbelief and that those listing will add to inventory again eventually.
I would say the smarter realtors don’t have 4 price decreases on the listing, they just take it off for a day or week and repost it – I have found @paulb guilty
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:mSrd4zV2bS8J:www.myfraservalleyhomes.com/listing/north-vancouver/lynn-valley/v936006-990-frederick-pl+990+frederick+pl+north+vancouver+march+2012&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ca&client=firefox-beta
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June 1st, 2012 at 8:48 pm 80
Here’s what realtors learn in their extensive 5 week course:
Week 1: Learn key phrases/disclaimers such as “All measurements approximate, buyer to verify if important” or “investor alert!!!!!!!”.
Week 2: Taking lazy, crappy photos
Week 3: How to convince buyers that the piece of shit you are selling them is worthy of “renovating” – or just using it as a holding property as it’s value can only go up. Show them how to drum their fingers together deciding what to do with the inevitable massive capital appreciation.
Week 4: Motivational speaking: “You can do this!”.
Imply scarcity: Schedule pre-open house before the actual open house to motivate buyers even more as demand will be cutthroat and bidding wars possibly violent.
Week 5: Shooters
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11959842&PidKey=-2062489058
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June 1st, 2012 at 9:33 pm 81
#80, BPOM: What a laff riot!
However, you forgot the most important part of all. Namely: “It’s now or never at this price.” She doesn’t know how right she is.
Or maybe she does.
In any case, truly gorgeous photos. All 3 of ‘em. Must have taken her at least three minutes. Three less minutes for bullshit-spewing. The poor dear.
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June 1st, 2012 at 11:32 pm 82
#79 – Re the expiration rate. My stats show the rate of expiries at the end of May was almost 1% higher for this week than the average of the previous 5 years. Thus, it was a much larger impact that would have been expected. This does not mean we won’t see them re-list but we are now past the peak listing period thus inventory increases will mainly be caused by decreasing sales.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 12:33 am 83
I think we will see higher than historic listing numbers through the summer. There is definitely a palpable sense of concern in the air for Vancouver RE. We could also see a spike if/when th SHTF if Euroland.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 12:53 am 84
To all geniuses who voted down my post #1 I will repeat again: Whistler is a stupid party town. Owning a tiny room in a town with no economy is lunacy. When real Vancouver crash happens so that you can stand next to a foreclosure sign and see the next foreclosure sign the party folk in Vancouver won’t be coming up to Whistler any longer- except maybe to jump off the bungee bridge with no bungee. Good luck with your Whistler condos then- the 65% drop will look like good times.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 4:10 am 85
@frank:
“It is basically prepaying your rent!”
Well no it isn’t, because of present value. You know, a dollar 20 years out is not worth as much as a dollar today. Also they are not including expenses.
Off the top of my head you would actually be prepaying your rent (net of expenses) on a 23 year leasehold if you paid about 75x monthly rent or in this case about $100K. So if you are paying the asking price you are throwing away over $100K.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 6:40 am 86
“When my family and I were pondering a move out of Vancouver, the line I heard more than once was “Don’t sell your house, you’ll never get back in.” It almost made sense, until I looked at the mountain of cash we would be leaving town with. For now I remain a Vancouver homeowner. The abstract concept of my net worth remains a fictional number.”
Discussion of a blog post at City Caucus by Martin Strong.
http://wp.me/pcq1o-4fZ
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June 2nd, 2012 at 7:12 am 87
@popgoesthebubble:
“a friend of mine listed his place in Kits for $1.7M. No offers. Dropped the price $100K, still no offers. They withdrew the listing and decided to stay put.”
So what were they going to do if it had sold?
Sorry to be a nag, but this would tell us a lot about the motivations of those listing.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 7:25 am 88
@Patsan:
This Gary guy has at least 12 West Side and Richmond properties advertised for rent. They are all vacant and available now and if you goggle the address all were recently purchased. Most of the properties on the West Side sold for close to 3 million and the Richmond ones are in the 1.5 million range. The guy must be a rental agent or ring leader behind investors who have recently dropped at least 20 to 30 million on houses to rent. The ads all state minimum 1 year lease so they are not looking for quick flips. None of the ads have photos or much details. The guy doesn’t have any houses advertised that appear to have been previously rented so he must be a newby to the game.
When you look at the yields they will get if they do get their asking rents they are below 2% after property taxes. Still lots of speculation going on out there. Actually considering the poor sales on the West Side and Richmond of late maybe speculators are the only ones buying.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 7:45 am 89
@Anonymous:
Another possible angle to consider is that this guy/group has had trouble ‘flipping’ these properties, so they are trying to insert wealthy renters, ergo the year leases, to attract buyers of ‘investment’ properties. I would be interested to see the last dates of sale on these properties and if they have been listed since. Doesn’t make sense to me that all of a sudden a bunch of wealthy renters moved out of these homes, ergo the properties have likely sat empty in the hopes of a juicy flip.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 7:57 am 90
@xyz:
That would actually make some sense if the houses were real investments, e.g. the rental yields were about 3 times higher. But as #88 pointed out, the yields are so low that the owner gets hardly more than just keeping them empty, and having a one year lease will in itself eliminate a lot of potential buyers.
Sounds to me like the guy is just clueless. Or desperate. Or both – they do go together.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 8:06 am 91
Anyone else noticing there seems to be a wide selection of houses for rent? I’ve been looking into the 3 bed plus lately and have noticed there seems to be plenty of selection, which is odd considering a few months ago there wasn’t much. Or is it just my imagination? When we went looking for our current place (we were in the market for 2 bed condos/townhouses), every place we showed up at was full of hoards of people looking to rent, and it ended up being rented to whoever the landlord liked most-lots of competition. We went to check out a SFH for rent last night in East Van, it was a decent price, though old house (likely worth $1 million), and when we got there for the showing…it was just us and one other couple (who seemed excited they’d found a place that would allow pets). Very odd that it was so quiet, and it wasn’t even the first showing of the place. Hm. A renter’s market in Vancouver?
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June 2nd, 2012 at 8:18 am 92
@pricedoutfornow:
As someone who has just taken advantage of this… Yes definitely a renters market. I’ve been Sale-a-Victed and Ren-o-Victed in this city more times than I can count, and this has been the first time EVER I showed up to the first place that had EVERYTHING we needed (pets, yard, dishwasher, washer dryer, 3 bedrooms, $1500-1700) and was able to come back the next day and sign the papers. The ad had been up for quite some time too, and the lady in the Basement suite said only one other person showed up, about a week before us…
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June 2nd, 2012 at 8:24 am 93
@pricedoutfornow:
I’ve noticed the increase supply of 3 bedroom rentals too. Also, many more of these are reasonably priced. I just check every few months to have a sense of the market and right now I am seeing the best conditions in years.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 8:38 am 94
@patriotz:
I didn’t say that this guys expectations were realistic, just that he could have expectations, after all he is clearly speculating to own 12 empty properties.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 9:28 am 95
@pricedoutfornow: it’s too bad there’s no way to get up to the date population stats for the city. I know of five families that moved away from Vancouver in the last year. I wonder if that’s just my group of friends or indicative of a larger exodus?
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June 2nd, 2012 at 9:37 am 96
@patrioz
Can you please elaborate on the one year lease argument? Do you mean people are looking for shorter or longer terms?
Are there inconveniences to choose the longest possible lease?
Thanks.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 9:55 am 97
I looked for a SFH rental in December and craigslist was the same as today, may be a bit cheaper for SFH, and less ads, but May is always the busiest. When I visited my home, we were alone, and the landlord had been trying to rent for quite a while, because they had so much problems with previous tenants that they had become picky. They told us the best way to make money is to rent to 5-8 students, $700 each, however they had very bad experiences and wanted a family, even if it meant less rent. Many houses are rented to students in our street. All the other houses we had visited before, we were alone, and the house belonged to HAM who said upfront they were speculating (= month to month).
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June 2nd, 2012 at 9:58 am 98
@Anonymous:
What I meant is that a property that is tenanted on a one year lease is going to be harder to sell, because the new owner has to honour the lease. So it’s not consistent with getting the highest possible price for the property.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 10:09 am 99
@xyz: “Another possible angle to consider is that this guy/group has had trouble ‘flipping’ these properties”
Could have been. It looks like a couple are activley listed for sale. Look at this one. You can buy it for 3 million or rent it for $3100 per month. Nice investment. If anyone has MLS access let us know when the last sale of this one was. Maybe it was a flip gone bad along with the other dozen he is trying to rent.
http://www.century21.ca/intownrealty/Property/BC/V6L_2E9/Vancouver/EDDINGTON_DR/2363
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June 2nd, 2012 at 10:13 am 100
@Best place on meth: What realtors learn in their 5-week training:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrEdsuXcJZE#t=0m9s
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June 2nd, 2012 at 10:33 am 101
In case you haven’t seen it, http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/06/01/bc-real-estate-wobbly.html
Larry Larry, quite contrary….
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June 2nd, 2012 at 10:36 am 102
@Anonymous:
Per BC Assessment Sold in April 2011 for $2.7mill, now listed for 3 Million, flip gone bad if I’ve ever seen one:
2363 EDDINGTON DR VANCOUVER V6L 2E9 $2,697,100 26/Apr/2011 $2,730,000 1 STY house – Semicustom 09-200-004721079350000
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June 2nd, 2012 at 11:12 am 103
@specuskeptic: Down 12%? Only 40 more to go….
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June 2nd, 2012 at 11:59 am 104
# 101 @ specuskeptic
Great link to the CBC story. “Uncertain fate for Vancouver real estate prices” Good video too.
“In May, average prices for houses have dropped about $150,000 compared to one year ago. That 12-per-cent drop wiped out two years of price increases.”
I think they mean average sales prices, I don’t think benchmark prices have dropped 12%. But, it’s good agitprop either way.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 12:50 pm 105
4575 Dumfies posted for 900000 and the biding started today.there are five offer already.Who said the price is dropping.Bear will be disappointed again.a 65 yrs can sell 900000 above so the average VAn SFH should be over 1.2 million now.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 2:25 pm 106
@Anonymous:
BC Assessment says last sale for 2363 EDDINGTON was 26/Apr/2011 $2,730,000.
Even if it sells for $3 mil the owner has barely broken even after costs.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 5:06 pm 107
If you thought “bubble bursting” in Vancouver were real and implies drastic reduction inprices,like below 500000 for a brand new one in East Van and North Van; you are dreaming and delusive. The bubble may burst though I don’t think so.However, prices will still be out of reach for the average white Canadian. There is no chance what so ever that the price going back to pre 2002 level coz Chinese owners will just don’t sell and stick in for long haul for indefinate period waiting for recovery.They endured the 1982,1989,1996……downturn and recovery so this time they are well prepared,also,most of them have rented out half of the houses,in time of the worst,they can withhold the correction and what for the next boom.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 5:20 pm 108
Annon 107:
“Chinese owners will just don’t sell and stick in for long haul for indefinate period”
Yes lets see how long the haul is for the speculator of 2363 EDDINGTON DR VANCOUVER referenced above. They paid 2.7 million and now are trying to rent it for $3100 per month after it sat vacant for over a year. Once they rent it, after property taxes they will get about a 1% yield if they paid cash. That is a notch lower than a savings account at the bank and you don’t have to worry about rent cheques clearing and plunging toilets to put your money in a savings account.
If they financed it at 3.5% they are bleeding $66,000 per year in interest alone after collecting the rent. When interest rates go up it will only get worse. Any idiot can figure out stuff like this can’t last long no matter how stupid the speculators.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 5:29 pm 109
“Anonymous Says:
June 2nd, 2012 at 5:06 pm
If you thought “bubble bursting” in Vancouver were real and implies drastic reduction inprices,like below 500000 for a brand new one in East Van and North Van; you are dreaming and delusive.”
And, what else have your Hillbilly friends been saying?
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June 2nd, 2012 at 5:42 pm 110
The rich Chinese immigrant arguement is so 2011. To the extent that it existed (which was highly exaggerated), the Conservative government appears to be putting an end to it.
In fact, immigration in general will probably drop in the Lower Mainland as Kenney is only concerned about getting skilled workers in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Northern BC. Its all about pleasing his buddies in the oil industry.
As suggested earlier in the thread, even existing Vancouverites are leaving. This will make the bust over-correct all the more.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 5:42 pm 111
Overheard this morning…. 2 neighbors chatting in Kits, the middle aged woman says “i see you sold your house that didnt take long” ” We’re gonna miss you two” Old guy…” Nope we are renting it back from the buyers so we will be here for a while!” The old guy had a smile on his face from ear to ear! Old and wise! No surprise!
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June 2nd, 2012 at 5:49 pm 112
A friendly suggestion to bears: please don’t vote down post #107 or ones like it. I have my popcorn and am very much enjoying watching the Vancouver bubble burst in spectacular fashion. Although I feel sorry for the innocent (yet clueless) masses, it’s the willfully ignorant people like this guy make who the show so entertaining.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 6:47 pm 113
@Patiently Waiting: I ain’t referring to Rich mainlander but average Chinese Vancourites who won’t give up their houses and apts under what so ever circumstances.They are savy and know how to manage their financec much better than white Vancourites.Time will prove you guys wrong once again
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June 2nd, 2012 at 6:59 pm 114
@Yalie:
What make U so sure Van RE will drop 40 plus,you think we are stupid to sell our houses at your target price;we will not sell,coz most of us bought ours before 2002.like mine,I bought it in 1990 at 380000 brand new then;now I am renting the ground floor units for $1700.My mortgage is only 2500 a month.How would u figure out thatwe will abandon our house and live on the street?
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June 2nd, 2012 at 7:06 pm 115
@Anonymous:
You mean collecting cans, fishing, hunnting dogs and rats, run massage parlors, etc? What do you mean when you say they are savy?
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June 2nd, 2012 at 7:33 pm 116
@Jake:
What ever u said but we could find a way to pull through,only u guys will suffer if there were ever a economic downturn.Even at can picking u guys are still lacking behind us.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 7:52 pm 117
@Anonymous: Welcome to the internet. You can be whatever ethnicity you want to be and misrepresent them.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 8:49 pm 118
@Meh:
No,It is just you guys in in-depth denial and creating your own fantasy,Van RE will drop may 10 to 20 % but once it has reached level,thousand of our compatriots will rush in and price will resume upward again.There gonna be few yrs of price stagnation,but it will be over and the usual pattern will repeat time and time again.What made you guys so sure this time is different than the past 60 yrs history,then a house around west Angus ave then was selling for 30 to 70 grands.Van RE investment in mid and long term are win win investment.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 9:10 pm 119
@Anonymous: Don’t worry, you’ll be back selling carpet before you know it.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 9:34 pm 120
@xyz: …..Per BC Assessment Sold in April 2011 for $2.7mill, now listed for 3 Million, flip gone bad if I’ve ever seen one:…
Guess he never got the ’12% drop and counting’ memo. He should be asking 2.4M (12% off of 2.7M) to start and after he drops in another 1.4M he might get some bites (but I doubt it).
Stuff like this just brings a big grin to my face.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 9:38 pm 121
@Anonymous: …..4575 Dumfies posted for 900000 and the biding started today.there are five offer already.Who said the price is dropping.Bear will be disappointed again.a 65 yrs can sell 900000 above so the average VAn SFH should be over 1.2 million now……
Can someone translate that for me, I don’t speak moron.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 9:43 pm 122
@Anonymous: ….Chinese owners will just don’t sell and stick in for long haul for indefinate period waiting for recovery.They endured the 1982,1989,1996……downturn and recovery so this time they are well prepared,also,most of them have rented out half of the houses,in time of the worst,they can withhold the correction and what for the next boom. ….
Ya, too bad the US never had any persons of Chinese decent otherwise they wouldn’t have had experienced a decline in RE prices.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 9:56 pm 123
@Anonymous: “There is no chance what so ever that the price going back to pre 2002 level coz Chinese owners will just don’t sell and stick in for long haul for indefinate period waiting for recovery.”
That’s it folks, you here is here first! There is no chance what so ever that the prices are going back to pre 2002!
Thanks for that fine bit of advice. I feel much better now knowing the fate of mankind is in the hands of Chinese Vancouver RE owners who, no matter how worthless their properties are, they will never sell.
I guess the upside is no matter how much my property drops, it won’t actually drop because my Chinese neighbour won’t sell. Wonder what Confucius would say about that? Maybe: Man who jumps off cliff, jumps to conclusion!
Only in Vancouver.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 9:58 pm 124
I really like dinner conversations
- Our house is not selling, and we both found jobs abroad. We will be condemned to renting our next place
- What do you mean “it is not selling?”
- No activity, no showing, no offer.
- Have you considered lowering the price?
- Of course! We did it, once.
- So may be you should do it again.
- Unthinkable!!!
- Why?
- Because that would mean selling for less we owe on the house =0 I would rather pull the house off the market! We are trying to rent it out to cover the cost, and we will wait.
Well, good luck!
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June 2nd, 2012 at 10:02 pm 125
A lot of morons posting today. Is this seasonal? I think we need to start tracking a new statistic: MOI = Months of Idiots, the average number of idiotic posts per month on VCI. This is probably a good contrarian indicator: when it’s high, the realtors are getting bored.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 10:08 pm 126
@Anonymous: “What ever u said but we could find a way to pull through,only u guys will suffer if there were ever a economic downturn.Even at can picking u guys are still lacking behind us.”
OK son, time to get back to your piano lessons; you don’t want to be late for your violin lessons.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 10:13 pm 127
You should all be ashamed of yourselves – Larry too – spreading your dangerous and contagious fear and negative nannyisms with all this naysaying… using numbers, and brain stuff…
We’re feeling really, really patient and happy about our forthcoming purchase right now. As I said we’ve got kids and I make good money and want to get out of the city – Squamish or high up above Poco or Port Moody area – have been tracking nineteen houses for the past six months and – ONE isn’t listed anymore (could have even just been taken off) – another half dozen have had $20-$40k decreases – but most are just sit, sit sitting away. And new fun ones getting added all the time, better and cheaper than the others… got another five or six this week that are enticing. We can afford to buy at these prices and are going to hold for a long long time – but I love the fact that it’s getting better every day.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 10:22 pm 128
@jumpin in: …..- Because that would mean selling for less we owe on the house =0 I would rather pull the house off the market!….
i.e. we want to wait and sell it for a lot less than we paid for it.
Proof that at least some of the product of all those BC grow ops is not going south of the border.
What are you pals going to do for blunts when they go abroad?
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June 2nd, 2012 at 10:26 pm 129
@Fonzarelli.
I am with you on that one
And once the 1500 sqft 1950 SFH becomes in my means, I eye at the 2000 sqft home in a better neighborhood and think: if only I wait six more months… it can be mine.
It is incredible what six years of a sickening market can do… I too feel like having infinite patience… up to a point that I do not even care missing the boat. The pop corn is soooo tasteful.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 10:27 pm 130
@UnagiDon: ….A lot of morons posting today. …..
It’s the time of year. High school students are getting pretty bored by now. Curiously enough, there educational equivalents, Realtards, are also pretty bored.
Seems like the increase in moron postings is directly correlated to the increase in listings (God help us).
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June 2nd, 2012 at 10:54 pm 131
@Anonymous:
“there educational equivalents”
Oh, the irony.
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June 2nd, 2012 at 10:58 pm 132
@specuskeptic:
Doesn’t Larry still have that $8.5m house to shift?
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June 3rd, 2012 at 3:55 am 133
@Anonymous:
“Chinese owners will just don’t sell and stick in for long haul for indefinate period waiting for recovery.”
Microeconomics 001: Market prices (of RE and everything else) are set by the people who ARE buying and selling, not the people who aren’t.
What happened to the people who just wouldn’t sell their Nortel shares?
And regarding your claim: Hong Kong saw a 50% drop in the late 90′s. Who was doing the selling?
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June 3rd, 2012 at 8:51 am 134
@patriotz: whoever doing the buy and sell, i am sure it’s not you. you could make it here, you left town and now cannot even find a job in ottawa.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 8:54 am 135
@Patiently Waiting: patriotz left, you are in rental. doesnt mean everyone else is leaving. have you seen your rich sister leaving yet? or she is sitting in her comfy home laughing at you!
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June 3rd, 2012 at 8:57 am 136
patriotz: ” Hong Kong saw a 50% drop in the late 90′s.”
anybody died during that drop??? Now HK is way up. It goes up and it goes down. what is your point?
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June 3rd, 2012 at 8:58 am 137
@Anonymous: I guess China must not have any Chinese owners either, since thy magically keep prices from falling and Chinese real estate is crashing.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 9:21 am 138
Wife and I are debt free, having paid off our condo this year (bought in 2003 for 150k) with considerable cash savings stockpiled. I suppose we could be considered classic “move up” buyers. We lust for a nice detached bungalow in the burbs. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t hoping for the debt riddled masses with their jumbo mortgages to crash and burn so we can pick up our little house for a song – we could probably pay cash for it even if we have to cash out a little of our investment portfolio. We hope to be done with mortgages – we are 39 BTW.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 9:28 am 139
@Canadian_in_Cabo: stop it, or you make bears more jealous and miserable!
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June 3rd, 2012 at 10:17 am 140
@kits:
“It goes up and it goes down. what is your point?”
That IS my point.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 10:42 am 141
“It goes up and it goes down. what is your point?”
patriotz: That IS my point.
and? apartments are still there. someone lives in them. people still go to work. HK is even more important financial hub in the world then it was in the 90′s. what do you expect when price drop 50%? Mad Max scenario?
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June 3rd, 2012 at 11:11 am 142
@kits:
“what do you expect when price drop 50%? Mad Max scenario?”
You probably didn’t notice, but this is a real estate blog. We discuss the price of real estate. That’s all. There does not have to be any Mad Max scenario for it to be interesting to us. I know: it’s very geeky. But that’s what it is.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 11:48 am 143
@kits:
When prices drop 50%, I expect to buy a house for half what I would pay today. If you can’t see the benefit of that, then you should go buy a house in Richmond right now; there’s plenty to choose from.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 12:12 pm 144
Yalie: “When prices drop 50%, I expect to buy a house for half what I would pay today.”
conversation was about the guy who bought his house in 1990 NOT about buying the house right NOW. you have reading comprehension problem.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 12:21 pm 145
@Yalie: meanwhile…you are still posting here out of misery.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 12:23 pm 146
@patriotz: his point is…he has a debt free condo and you dont…landless armchair economist!
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June 3rd, 2012 at 12:59 pm 147
@Anonymous:
As someone who has personally experienced the crushing effects of debt, bankruptcy, and basically loss of everything, I know a thing or two about misery. And now that I have come out the other side of financial Hell and rebuilt my life for the better, I think I have a fairly unique insight into the current and future plight of our fellow Vancouverites.
The people of this city are overloaded with debt. And one thing is clear: once debts become too large – as they have for a large portion of homeowners – there is no going back.
I’ve experienced it all: month after month of missed payments, endless debt collection phone calls, utilities getting shot off, not having the money to go out to a movie with friends, trying in vain to shuffle money from one account to another in the hopes that the numbers will start getting better. But they only get worse. And so does the misery.
In fact, misery does not begin to describe what a large portion of indebted Vancouverites are currently facing, or what they will experience in the coming years as they watch everything they’ve acquired in life slowly evaporate month after month.
Misery? Compared to my former life as a debt slave, my current situation is as close to nirvana as you could get. I wish I could say the same thing for my fellow citizens.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 1:04 pm 148
The fear around here is amazing. All these supposed property geniuses are getting scared shitless. They know the jig is up and the inevitable crash has started. I guess reading about it daily in the MSM has finally sunk in and they realize their wealth is about to evaporate. It will be interesting to read their continued denial as things unravel.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 3:28 pm 149
@ Fear@ Greed
I don’t know why the bull trolls make fun of the bears here, because if they were true capitalists, they would realize that most bears are capitalists too. Anyway…..back to looking after my bear nest egg war chest that I’ve been building up getting ready for the lean years.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 4:04 pm 150
Real Estate business crashes in Keremeos?
No problem….just round up a couple of retired friends and try smuggling 200 kilos of blow into Oz….
http://www.canada.com/news/Police+silent+drug+bust/6722463/story.html
Keremeos residents being held in New Caledonia after drugs seized from sailboat
Residents of Keremeos believe three locals being held in tropical prison
…The March 31 arrest of three Canadians off the coast of New Caledonia was trumpeted in an Australian government news release that said: “Australian, New Caledonian and United States authorities have disrupted an international cocaine syndicate attempting to import an estimated 200 kilograms of cocaine into Australia from South America.”
….The Province has learned the jailed Canadians are 55-year-old Robert Stanley, a former Keremeos public works foreman; his wife, Cindy Lou Stanley, 55; and 48-year-old Gary Yuzik, former owner of RE/MAX Keremeos Realty. As far as The Province has been able to establish, none of them has yet been charged with any crime.
A source said Cindy Stanley was employed by Yuzik, and Yuzik “ran a profitable business into the ground” after buying RE/MAX Keremeos Realty from Penticton realtor Bill Barkhausen in 2007….”
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June 3rd, 2012 at 4:15 pm 151
I don’t read bullish comments anymore as there is no possible way they could be logical or rational…
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June 3rd, 2012 at 4:29 pm 152
@Arthur Fonzarelli: Now imagine six years of that. You might actually bore of it.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 4:30 pm 153
@jumpin in: Lower the prince until it sells?
ha
http://i285.photobucket.com/albums/ll67/Emo-tional_Child/inconceivable.jpg
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June 3rd, 2012 at 5:21 pm 154
@kabloona:
“48-year-old Gary Yuzik, former owner of RE/MAX Keremeos Realty.”
Thanks for the heads-up. Another dirty BC Realturd® story I almost missed.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 5:35 pm 155
Asia open…Hallo Kitty is going bankrupt… down 2% in first minutes
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June 3rd, 2012 at 5:53 pm 156
Getting 50% off a house should be the same as getting 50% off a new 80″ TV, EXCITING!
Love the realtor’s comment from Okanagan story:
“Once everything is sorted out with world economy, everything is going to be good again”
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June 3rd, 2012 at 6:18 pm 157
@SunBlaster:
Once again these tools believe (or pretend to believe) that the absurd prices of recent years are normal and they are only falling because the global economy is screwed up, when the absurd prices are actually the most obvious symptom of a screwed up global economy.
If anyone wants to know what house prices should be when the economy really is working properly, they should look at those of the 50′s and early 60′s (relative to rents and incomes).
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June 3rd, 2012 at 6:44 pm 158
We are front and centre on Garth’s blog tonight.
Well worth the read!
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/06/03/from-bull-to-bitch/#comments
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June 3rd, 2012 at 6:45 pm 159
@Navin R Johnson: Mostly emotional bull comments, probably because of their position in the RE market.
I guess if I was over-extended and drinking the Rennie Kool-aid, I might be a bull too….
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June 3rd, 2012 at 6:52 pm 160
Life’s simple pleasures:
* good company
* a fine wine
* laughing ones ass off at China
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-slowdown-spreads-2012-06-03?siteid=yhoof2
So enjoyable….
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June 3rd, 2012 at 6:52 pm 161
Can anyone direct me to an average long term price graph for Whistler?
Thanks in advance.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 7:54 pm 162
@McLovin:
Why doesn’t Garth mention that the condo market is flat? As usual, he’s being selective with his stats…
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June 3rd, 2012 at 8:13 pm 163
Gambling revenues in Macau, which until now had escaped unscathed by mainland Chinese tightening, are now showing signs of new weakness. Figures released on Friday showed gaming revenue rose just 7.3% to 26.08 billion patacas ($3.26 billion) last month, which is the slowest growth rate since July 2009.
Shocking, Macau’s gambling revenue is down by a SHOCKING +7.3%, falling apart!
My Saturday night revenues are up a lot more, thank you to your patronage, bless you.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 8:13 pm 164
@McLovin: peabrains or tofu brains or housewives of van read garth’s.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 8:14 pm 165
@patriotz: just have to ask the loser who left town!
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June 3rd, 2012 at 8:26 pm 166
China warns travellers to Canada after killing of student
Oh my…
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June 3rd, 2012 at 8:48 pm 167
@Makaya:
The USA also warned travelers to Montreal about a month ago.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 8:56 pm 168
@Makaya:
No, Canada is not a safe place to visit or study.
People actually get murdered here from time to time which is clearly not the case in China where murders were abolished by the government 10 years ago.
It seems to have worked as there hasn’t been a murder in China since then.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 9:00 pm 169
#163 – Romeo Jordan please stop using my handle.
Your Mom is calling you she says its time to go to bed. Her little soldier has a big day tomorrow.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 9:03 pm 170
@Anonymous:
If the Chinese owners don’t sell ever then they have zero effect on the market price which will be set by the owners willing to sell. Therefore, far from being a good thing for people wishing house prices to stay high and go higher, Chinese owners are terrible for you. Those flightly non-Chinese owners will be ditching their properties at any old price and accelerating the downturn!
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June 3rd, 2012 at 9:16 pm 171
@kabloona:
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June 3rd, 2012 at 9:21 pm 172
in toronto if you go shopping you get murdered on fairly regular occasions.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 9:21 pm 173
@kabloona:
From the Keremeos couple article:
“Property records registered in May 2011 show Robert and Cindy Stanley took a loan from HSBC Bank Canada on a 2005 Hunter 33 yacht, which is a model worth about $100,000.
Court records show HSBC Bank Canada entered a B.C. Supreme Court civil foreclosure case against Robert and Cindy Lou Stanley on March 30, 2012.”
Sooo…just to recap. You can run two businesses into the ground and still get a $100k loan on a non revenue generating boat?!? WTF? And Mark Carney laments the debt levels of Canadians?! Is it any wonder when credit is this easy to come by?
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June 3rd, 2012 at 9:23 pm 174
@Selma Bouvier: Correction, it was a revenue generating boat, lol. Just illegal revenue.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 9:23 pm 175
expect guberment to sent tanks in Montreal. paper spraying does not work with frenchies like it did for vancouverites.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 9:25 pm 176
@Selma Bouvier: I’m sure they explained to the bank that the boat was being used to smuggle drugs and therefore a sound investment.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 9:26 pm 177
and so it has begun, pop. Friends are still in denial, scared because they purchased last year and don’t want to believe they are about to lose all their equity in the next year. They paid 1 mill for a 25×100 lot house in vancouver main area, they had 30% down so they can afford the downturn. But who really wants to realize it. I can’t wait to buy in the same area, with a bigger lot and nicer house for 1/2 the price. Btw, I personally sold a few months ago, now renting for cheaper than my mortgage. New place is double the size, nicer area, yard, and so on. Loving it, im going to buy some popcorn and watch the crash!
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June 3rd, 2012 at 9:27 pm 178
@Selma Bouvier: “Sooo…just to recap. You can run two businesses into the ground and still get a $100k loan on a non revenue generating boat?!? WTF?”
It said he took a loan on a boat worth 100K. It didn’t say he borrowed the full 100K. He could have put money down.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 9:35 pm 179
@Anonymous:
You’re right, it may not have been a $100k loan. Language comprehension is not my friend today.
Can anyone tell me how I ended up with a avatar with two gerbils/mice/chihuahuas kissing? I didn’t enter it myself and just started posting here.
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June 3rd, 2012 at 9:58 pm 180
@Anonymous: …..It didn’t say he borrowed the full 100K. He could have put money down…..
Ya, probably 5% down with 5% cash-back. Awesome!
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June 3rd, 2012 at 10:05 pm 181
I’m guessing this has already been posted here before (probably ad nauseum):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM
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June 3rd, 2012 at 10:15 pm 182
Shame, nothing but shame. How low one can go?
‘In my heart, I am Filipina,’ says Christy Clark at Vancouver’s Philippine Independence Day celebration”
http://www.theprovince.com/touch/entertainment/story.html?id=6723725
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June 3rd, 2012 at 10:17 pm 183
well if Chrisy that desperate she can go very low
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June 3rd, 2012 at 11:05 pm 184
in toronto if you go shopping you get murdered fairly regularly
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June 4th, 2012 at 7:59 am 185
@Selma Bouvier: you probably entered an email address that uses that avatar at gravatar. I’m guessing I you didn’t set that up you probably entered someone else’s email address : D
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June 5th, 2012 at 6:00 am 186
[...] sales on the West Side and Richmond of late maybe speculators are the only ones buying.” – Anonymous at VCI 2 Jun 2012 7:25am [...]
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June 6th, 2012 at 12:36 pm 187
[...] “Talking to a colleague. Her and her brother were looking at places in my neighborhood last night. He sold his place in the sticks and is now looking to move closer to the city. I asked her why doesn’t he just rent, “he feels that interest rates are going to rise and he wants to lock in a low rate.” Wouldn’t it better to sock away the money and wait for rates to rise, values to decrease and then buy, I asked. “Over the long term real estate never goes down besides there is so much money coming over here.” The rent for my one bedroom is $1,550 and similar apartments are listed for $490k. meaning it would cost me almost $3,000 a month to own a comparable apt. — based on 5% down with a 5-year fixed at 4% with a 25 year amort. I am so very, very tired of being wrong about Vancouver’s RE market. It appears that there is just no shortage of people who truly believe that we are running out land, that real estate always goes up and that everyone wants live here.” – Manna from heaven, at VCI, 1 Jun 2012 11:19am [...]
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June 7th, 2012 at 6:00 am 188
[...] “OK here’s my confession: Bought a house in 2003. around $400K in the East side. Sold in 2005 due to personal reasons, for around $600K. Thought I did great. Thought I will wait out the house market because it is too overvalued. Still waiting. Now that same house is probably valued around $1.1-1.2M. I still believe it will crash, been following this blog and others for ages. But so far no luck. Been waiting 7 years. Very tough with all the friends and family saying I’m stupid. However, renting a beautiful house on the west side in a neighbourhood I could never afford to buy in, so life is good overall. Actually living in a house nicer than all my friends and family for the monthly cost of a mortgage on a crack shack in east van. So not feeling too bad actually! Still looking forward to the crash… hope it happens this year.” – popgoesthebubble at VCI 1 Jun 2012 7:53pm [...]
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