Open Topic

Friday Free-for-all!

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148 Comments

Yeah! It’s friday and that means it’s time for the sun to shine and for us to do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread. Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–Updated inventory graph, still climbing!
–2 experts debate the bubble
–Blame Canada? Blame Europe!
–Nokia shutting down Burnaby
–Why low and stable prices are good
–Will sunshine bring a tear of joy?
–‘Rodeo drive north’ going south
–Van West tilting at windmills
–West Van sales party over
–OECD: Canada suffering Dutch Disease
–Bubble fears a boon to alternative lenders

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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patriotz

@YLTNboomerang:
“If you short Genworth, aren’t you responsible for covering the dividends?”

Yep, and the yield is over 6%. I think the easy money shorting Genworth has already been made. Also, I would stay away from the custom short ETF’s, they usually have very high overhead.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/chart/?q=MIC-T

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VMD

@HAM Solo: Thanks for the excellent insights! I still need to get myself educated on the more advanced tools of investing (don’t have a margin account yet). Those bear etfs were but my crude attempt to bet against the market (with relatively small amount of $ involved). Lots to learn. re: shorting Genworth MIC, Canadian Western Bank, Home Capital Group, there were rumors that the upcoming OSIF rule changes are mainly directed against big banks, while these marginal lenders may actually benefit (at least for short-term, until the downturn worsens). So far I’ve shunned the TSX by significantly reducing my Canadian equities exposure since late 2011/early 2012. Looking back, I probably sold 1-2 months early (late Feb was TSX peak), but at least my most recent RRSP contributions (minimal canadian equities exposure) were relatively unscathed, now that TSX has wiped… Read more »

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Anonymous

@jesse: ….More like, my taxes will be less because they’re taxing someone else. ….

Good grief, do you really believe that? if so, you should renew your subscription to Gullible Peoples Digest before they’re sold out.

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YLTNboomerang

@HAM Solo: If you short Genworth, aren’t you responsible for covering the dividends? I’m not sure I want this guaranteed liability.

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condo watcher

(and i’m a she)

“This was my place that i sold and am now renting back from the investor. I asked for a 5 year lease, with a condition that I (and only I) can break the lease with 60 days written notice.”
sweet deal–good for you

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HAM Solo

@ VMD Maybe not a bad idea to sell the 3x shorts. Book your gain. Greeks have delayed the inevitable for another six weeks. On the investing side, I think the safer shorts are here at home. Read all the way through the 140-odd posts and you see an investor’s dream: an established trend (i.e. declining Canadian home prices), with a long way to run (what do you say, 40-50% clear downside runway to plausible “fair value”), that is not well understood by investors or the general public (why are we spending time on some far flung corner of the internet…because all the MSM is too conflicted or too stupid to see what is happening). I doubt we have much more time to jump on the trend before it becomes popular. I was just in Toronto, which is a frickin… Read more »

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Best place on meth

@gordholio:

“The next time the housing market in B.C. comes up in conversation – and we know it will – let’s try to remember that without such a successful industry, our economy would be in much rougher shape.”

The same could be said of the grow op industry, but they don’t brag about it like these real estate d-bags.

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jesse

@gordholio: “But to then use the horrible truth as a way to guilt the reader”

LOL when you see drivel like that in the media, you know someone’s under the gun. Big time.

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gordholio

Anonymous: Truly a piece of crap article. Here’s the key quote from the CEO of the Canadian Homebuilders Ass: “The next time the housing market in B.C. comes up in conversation – and we know it will – let’s try to remember that without such a successful industry, our economy would be in much rougher shape.” No shit. That’s the entire problem wrapped up in the proverbial nutshell. If we weren’t going broke buying and selling criminally overpriced houses to each other like brainwashed zombies, the economy would tank. So nice of him to come right out and admit it. Indeed, most of the piece discusses how incredibly much of our isolated little world here in the BPOE is built on housing. To anyone with a brain, it’s a frightening read. I wonder if he knew how idiotic his words… Read more »

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mac

@Anonymous: Sounds like you’re a smart “she”!

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jesse

@Patiently Waiting: “Talk about desperation, when they go down this road for revenue.”

More like, my taxes will be less because they’re taxing someone else. And yes, I’m one of those *ssholes who smiles every time I see a red light camera flash go off.

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Anonymous

@Patiently Waiting:”Talk about desperation, when they go down this road for revenue.”

OK I don’t like the idea of taxing used vehicles. But the law is the law. People are scamming other tax payers by not paying it. It looks like 1/3 of all private sales are ‘gifts’. I applaud the government for doing this.

From the article:

“Almost one-third (161,000) of the 503,000 private vehicle transactions last year were reported as gifts instead of sales. And an estimated 60,000 of those were between unrelated individuals.”

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Patiently Waiting

@Anonymous: Many people take offense to a sales tax on private sales of used cars, and feel quite right about evading some or all of it. They sort of have a point considering the cars were already taxed when sold new.

When I was young, friends were always selling old junkers to each other and I’m sure nobody bothered paying tax.

Its good PR to point to the high-end luxury sells, but if the government starts cracking down across the board, it could be quite controversial. And how far back can they go (statue of limitations)?

Talk about desperation, when they go down this road for revenue.

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Anonymous

“there has never been a better time to purchase a new home or renovate your current house.”

says the…

“CEO of the Canadian Home Builders’ Association of B.C.”

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Anonymous

on another note

http://www.theprovince.com/life/Benefits+homebuying/6795853/story.html

are you kidding me…

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Anonymous

“He obviously didn’t understand it otherwise he wouldn’t be asking people on VCI when his rent could be increased and by how much. Just because his landlord didn’t increase the rent doesn’t mean he ‘screwed up’. The landlord might value a good tenant and not want to extract every penny he can. Hardly what I would call screwing up. Sure glad you are not my landlord. no, i do understand (and I’m a she) that the rent can be increased every year by the allotted amount. I entered into the standard B.C residential tenancy Act agreement, and I read the entire agreement. The only part I’m confused with was, do they not have to increase it at the end of every year? or could they come to me 14 months in and ask for the increase (even though I’ve already… Read more »

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Anonymous

@patriotz: He said (101) that the lease specifies that rent can be increased by the amount allowed by the RTB. It appears that the landlord screwed up by not giving the required notice. He obviously didn’t understand it otherwise he wouldn’t be asking people on VCI when his rent could be increased and by how much. Just because his landlord didn’t increase the rent doesn’t mean he ‘screwed up’. The landlord might value a good tenant and not want to extract every penny he can. Hardly what I would call screwing up. Sure glad you are not my landlord. “What surprises me the most is that a landlord would enter into a 5 year lease at all. If the landlord has no intention of selling, the 5 years lease is to his advantage. There is no advantage for the tenant… Read more »

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patriotz

@Anonymous:
“I am shocked someone would sign a 5 year lease and not know what the provisions for a rent increase are.”

He said (101) that the lease specifies that rent can be increased by the amount allowed by the RTB. It appears that the landlord screwed up by not giving the required notice.

What surprises me the most is that a landlord would enter into a 5 year lease at all. That means the owner (or subsequent owner) has no right to end the tenancy for 5 years except for non-payment. Obviously that limits the buyer pool severely if he wants to sell at some point.

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Gresko MCGresko

@ZRH2YVR:

Here in HAM-Ville…

Any stats on Richmond MOI?

What I am seeing is projects freezing….aka vacant houses boarded up.
Or properties with development signs now trying to sell the lot and old house

These parties most likely bought at the peak, and have lost big time…cut their losses via do not build. (As the saying goes, the profit was made the day you bought the lot).

Another anomaly:
Watch what the South Asian Builders are doing. Many of them build, live in , do the capital gains then sell…repeat. One near me is not even to lock up yet “For Sale”. These Ma and Pa builders will get hit the hardest as they are often exclusively dependent on HAM as buyers.

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Anonymous

@Anonymous: “I’m in a 5 year lease, and just entering year 2.”

I am shocked someone would sign a 5 year lease and not know what the provisions for a rent increase are. I know most people sign almost anything without reading it or understanding it, but a 5 years lease? That is something you must read and understand PRIOR to signing it.

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Sheesh

@Anonymous: “they never asked for an increase… but maybe they can just come back in a month’s time and say they forgot to raise it a month ago and are wanting to do so now.”

I believe they have to notify you in writing three months before a rent increase. You can email the province (they have a contact somewhere on the Residential Tenancy Branch website) if you want to be sure.

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ZRH2YVR

Seems the sun is peeking through so I’m going out. Some current trends. Richmond – price decreases norm now and may end month with 14 MOI Vancouver – Sticky – – not too many motivated sellers but we’ll see when the Spec Builders start to unload. Overall Market – We should end 2012 June with lower sales in market than 2008. Big factor is condo sales slow in Van-West – the largest single component of the market. All locations are down but this big component is down a lot. However, listing pace is not as high as 2008 (yet?) so we will not have as low Sale/List but will be second lowest and far away from seasonal norms. We may not end Sep/Oct with higher inventory than 2008, but that is still possible. We should have flat inventory from June… Read more »

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jumpin in

@patiently waiting: same here.

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Gresko MCGresko

Solution:

Re-invigorate HAM $$$$

What should do is up the deposit on beverage containers from 5 cents to $25 dollars (minimum).

See many Asians out dumpster diving and with huge 10 ft tall bags full of recyclable deposits tied to their bikes. If the GDP of the loads can increase from $5 Dollah to $500…evelybody wins.

Sure I know such a move may reduce Surreys GDP…but hey its a start.

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