Friday Free-for-all! New Rules Edition
Welcome to the summer of 25 year amortizations!
You’ve made it to the end of another weekend and that means it’s time for our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread.
Lots of ink spilled over the new mortgage regulations released yesterday.
Here are a few links to kick off the chat:
-New rules in effect July 9th
-How rules effect mortgage numbers
-How new rules will sink houses prices
-Final OSFI guidlines released
-Brokers not so happy
-Inventory growth takes a breather
-Be very afraid of the Canadian bubble
-Falling prices, no more home ATMs
-Moody’s downgrades RBC 2 notches
-USA 2006 “I’m not giving it away”
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
June 22nd, 2012 at 12:18 am 1
More “bad” news: http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Publications/PeriodicalsReleases/PopulationHighlights.aspx
Net interprovincial for Q1’12 was negative 2400. Rut-roh!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 12:51 am 2
As if you needed any confirmation that the PTB don’t give a rat’s ass about Vancouver:
Toronto condo boom prompted new mortgage rules, Flaherty says
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 1:13 am 3
Yesireee celebrated with an extra doob tonight . Will be interesting to see what unfolds over the next few months.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 1:35 am 4
Not giving it away (expanded edition)
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 1:44 am 5
Yeah, cant wait to watch how Vancouver market unfolds in July, oh, and the olympic too.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 5:39 am 6
2 patriotz Says: It was a near coffee-through-nose moment reading this:
“In Toronto in particular, what I’ve observed and heard about from developers is continuous building without restriction,” Mr. Flaherty said. “It’s distorting the market, quite frankly. And for that reason, we’re taking the steps we’re taking.”
He’s stepping in because of the runaway prices and debt created by…. over supply? This government couldn’t point out honesty with an illustrated field guide.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 5:45 am 7
Did any of you see the idiotic spin on Global News at 6 about how the changes to the mortgage rules will only add to the “…thousands and thousands of renters, because they simply will NEVER be in a position to buy”.
Then, the talking head realtor was trotted out, blah blah…
NOT ONCE did they mention, of course, that it is much more likely that prices WILL GO DOWN to solve THAT problem. Duh.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 6:50 am 8
I suppose there will be some minor level of stampede of those buying expensive properties, or those that need max amortisation and heloc’s.
And if it is minor then would assume that it is pretty slow thereafter.
Additionally, I suppose there is also the possibility of a short term listings ramp to try and get out before the changes take effect. Should be interesting numbers next few weeks.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:04 am 9
I find it comical to read and hear the arguments from those that have a vested interest in Vancouver real estate activity and prices continuing at elevated levels about how the recent rule changes won’t change anything.
The real estate market is a very complex system, where modeling how one thing leads to another is fraught with problems. There are always unintended consequences to actions that people do not and cannot foresee.
On the surface, it is easy to see how these changes eliminate a meaningful segment of buyers from the Vancouver real estate market, which will shift the supply/demand equation in such a way that sellers will realize lower prices on their properties. But then things get complicated. What happens next and why isn’t easy to predict. E.g., here in the States, one thing that many people didn’t factor into their thinking when home prices started to fall was how much social mores has changed in recent years, and how it had now become almost fashionable to walk away from homes with negative equity. This helped to accelerate the decline in prices as the inventory of bank-owned homes climbed unexpectedly quickly.
Five years from now, I suspect this decision by the CMHC will be generally regarded as the pin that pricked the bubble, but the path from here will probably surprise most people.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:13 am 10
Any body know what happens to people who have their mortgages with Firstline?
Do they remain the same and then the borrower has to find a new lender at the end of the term?
I have friends who are with Firstline, who last week were commenting on how they weren’t sure if they would qualify for their mortgage at renewal, which is a few years away. Now they are worried that they may have to go looking for a mortgage sooner rather than later.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:23 am 11
@patriotz: “As if you needed any confirmation that the PTB don’t give a rat’s ass about Vancouver:”
And the best thing that can happen to Vancouver is for the changes to have no impact in Toronto. The Feds will bring in more tightening even if Vancouver is in a full crash. There are advantages to being ignored. Imagine what the new amortization changes will do to already declining markets like the Okanagan.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:25 am 12
@market stats:
New rules take effect July 9 and sales must be final before then to qualify under the old rules.
That’s just over 2 weeks from today which is far too little time for any meaningful number of buyers and sellers to do anything.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:27 am 13
Oh my… poor renters, they are pretty much screwed now that they cannot afford to buy
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3085966282.html
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:41 am 14
@ Bailing in BC
their mortgages are fine–cibc will continue with previous loans –no change there–this was posted yesterday @ #163 by d
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/20/cibc-fails-to-sell-firstline-mortgages-unit/
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:46 am 15
From Cormark morning notes:
Equitable Group Inc. (ETC – TSX)
Equity Financial Holdings Inc. (EQI – TSX)
Genworth MI Canada Inc. (MIC – TSX)
Home Capital Group Inc. (HCG – TSX)
New Mortgage Rules A Modest Positive For Sub-Prime Lenders, Likely Negative For MIC – Friday, June 22, 2012
The new rules announced on Thursday lower the maximum amortization period to 25 years, impose a maximum loan-to-value on refinance transactions to 80% from 85%, and lower maximum debt service ratios. In addition, homes valued over $1 MM will no longer qualify for mortgage insurance. The independent lenders have been experiencing rising origination volumes and higher credit quality as lending standards have tightened, squeezing more borrowers out of the prime category and into sub-prime. The new rules, in our view, only serve to further strengthen this trend. For Genworth MI Canada, the rule changes likely further shrink the firm’s addressable market. (Morning Notes)
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:51 am 16
@vanpire:
I cannot figure out some of these furnished rentals like you just pointed out. A 1000 sf condo which has a market rent unfurninshed of about $2300 per month at best has an asking rent furnished at $8575. The price is so out of line it makes you wonder why a rental agency bothers posting the ad.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:52 am 17
@Anonymous: “The independent lenders have been experiencing rising origination volumes and higher credit quality as lending standards have tightened, squeezing more borrowers out of the prime category and into sub-prime.”
I thought there was no such thing as sub-prime in Canada. Don’t they know if is called non-prime.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:59 am 18
http://www.theprovince.com/business/Flat+market+doesn+need+mortgage+rules+expert+says/6823910/story.html
Flat market doesn’t need new mortgage rules, “expert” says – will only “hurt” local market
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 8:32 am 19
@Harry Wang:
Yeah, Muir. Hurt exactly who? Speculators who have absolutely no interest in the community or the local economy? The sheep who bought thinking prices keep going up forever gorging on debt? Real estate marketers who screamed, “Buy now or never”?
If that’s the case, I’d say let this sh*t hit the fan. I have no sympathy for any of them.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 9:01 am 20
@Anonymous:
Muir is the biggest bubble scammer of them all. Doesn’t want to effect his job having to lie to people why 10 times income is normal. What a complete tool !
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 9:06 am 21
@Boombust: They can’t tell the masses that prices will go down, that could cause mass panic and there aren’t enough bridges to go around.
Still waiting for the Victoria Times Colonist rag to write an article on the changes, been over 24 hours and still nothing, crap journalism at it’s finest. Guess it’s not news if you don’t want it to be and the real estate advertisers are happy they bury it and pretend it doesn’t exist.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 9:08 am 22
@Bailing in BC:
Firstline was just a CIBC-owned brand. Existing customers will now be serviced by CIBC directly.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 9:19 am 23
Typically, there is a 10-20% dropoff in sales between June and July. Given the CMHC rules changes, I expect a bigger drop than that this year.
June sales were already the lowest over the last 10. July sales, I predict, will come in under 2000. With around 20K of inventory, we will have a shot at 10.0 MoI by end of July.
Here are July norms:
and for fun here is June
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 9:26 am 24
@Harry Wang: It’s funny that Muir wasn’t saying the same thing when mortgage rules were loosened. Could you imagine him saying “prices are rising so I don’t understand why the government is allowing 40 year amortizations. It will only make the market go higher!”
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 9:42 am 25
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/mortgages/First+time+homebuyers+will+squeezed+mortgage+rules/6821870/story.html/
From the article:
If he is able to buy before the new rules kick in, he can afford a $700,000 home with a $643,860 mortgage, including insurance, and will have payments of $2,773.58 a month. After July 9, the maximum mortgage he’d be allowed to carry will decrease to about $566,100 with insurance, dropping his top possible purchase price to $625,000, Trounsell said.
If that is a common case, then the market is hooped – there is no way prices will only go down 10% with such a big cap on mortgage amounts.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:01 am 26
Note that there are TWO (opposing) opinions in that Province piece. Note that the headline showcases only one – Muir’s. Note also that many readers merely skim headlines. The Province, of course, knows this.
I hope you’re very proud over there at Pacific Press. You’ve done your absolute best to hide and distort the truth all the way along, and even today as the bubble/zeppelin begins its plunge into the hard earth, you continue to be as deceptive and as slimy as ever.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:06 am 27
@Harry Wang: “Flat market doesn’t need new mortgage rules, “expert” says – will only “hurt” local market”
I don’t recall Muir complaining back in 2006 that our hot market didn’t need stimulative mortgage rule changes. I’m sure Flats is tossing and turning at night while he contemplates Muir’s concerns. Muir who?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:08 am 28
25 year amortizations. Million dollar CMHC price cap. 80% refinancing limit. 65% HELOC maximums. No more cash-back mortgages.
Yesterday’s news was like having Christmas in June. And yet nothing made me happier than hearing Cam Muir spout off about how much he hates the new rules.
Cam Good – do you have an opinion? I could use another pick me up today.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:10 am 29
@Not much of a name…: d’oh…you beat me to it!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:27 am 30
@fixie guy: It just goes to show that the government doesn’t give a shit about sky high prices. They are at best indifferent to the impact on families and the distortions in the economy. But when they see an end result, like 180 skyscrapers in Toronto and developers saying “we’ll build until it busts”, and they realize they are on the hook for those losses, well then I guess it’s time to do something.
The problem with policy, and this is especially true for monetary policy, is that it has been directed towards an outcome (GDP growth) and not a process. They are too focussed on what the economy does and not enough on how it operates. Hence the tendencies towards bubbles and easy money. Contrast that stance with Paul Volker’s in the 1980s.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:28 am 31
@gordholio: “Note that the headline showcases only one – Muir’s. Note also that many readers merely skim headlines”
With deference, I’m having a hard time calling someone who skims a headline a “reader”. If people can’t be bothered to read the article and instead “skim” for headlines for clever witty puns instead, can we really blame the Sun for inserting lorem ipsum into the text?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:29 am 32
#4 @patriotz: Oh you’re terrible. You mean we get 3-4 more years of hearing how much peoples’ houses are worth?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:30 am 33
@Yalie: “Cam Good – do you have an opinion? I could use another pick me up today.”
Didn’t that rat flee the ship?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:33 am 34
#24 @Not much of a name…: “prices are rising so I don’t understand why the government is allowing 40 year amortizations. It will only make the market go higher!”
I can not upvote this enough.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:36 am 35
#16 @Anonymous: “I cannot figure out some of these furnished rentals like you just pointed out. A 1000 sf condo which has a market rent unfurninshed of about $2300 per month at best has an asking rent furnished at $8575. The price is so out of line it makes you wonder why a rental agency bothers posting the ad.”
You can do that in New York if you fill the place with 10 million dollars worth of art.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:39 am 36
@Anonymous: “And the best thing that can happen to Vancouver is for the changes to have no impact in Toronto.”
I would laugh my ass off if Torontonians doubled down with subprime. Make 360 skyscrapers
Canada is a safe-haven!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:45 am 37
31, Jesse: Okay, I’ll rephrase that. Many *people* are headline skimmers. That’s the way it is.
Really, what were the chances that a *cough* upstanding *cough* publication such as The Province would headline and prioritize the Kwantlen professor’s POV and bury Muir’s at the bottom of the article?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:47 am 38
http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2012/06/vancouver-market-was-in-trouble-before.html
Vancouver was in trouble before the rule changes…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 11:01 am 39
@Anonymous: @Anonymous: “And the best thing that can happen to Vancouver is for the changes to have no impact in Toronto. The Feds will bring in more tightening even if Vancouver is in a full crash. There are advantages to being ignored. Imagine what the new amortization changes will do to already declining markets like the Okanagan.
This I 100% agree with. After all the hoopla of yesterday, I am noticing comments that indicate that Chinese buyers (whomever they might be foreign/local, I don’t know) will not be impacted by the changes. There is a good chance that pre-sale condos will continue and developers won’t be able to help themselves. If this were to occur in Toronto, I am hoping the Feds will act vs. the Provinces. Because we all know which way Christie Clark will go when it come to selling everything to anyone rather than creating a real economy with jobs for locals.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 11:11 am 40
@Boombust: Be happy that Global is Global. We don’t want a stampede to the exits as that will cause Rennie and the developer lobby to go to the provincial government to get measures that mitigate the course of these changes. There’s an election coming up, one of these two idiotic parties is bound to “defend” first time buyers.
To all your friends… now that we’ve been the harbingers of doom for so long… just say ‘everything will be OK… things will only go down a few points and that’s it. Ozzie Jurock said so on Global.
I am no longer that person that warns or explains (well I can’t help explaining, esp. when I hear people refer to these changes as “government meddling in the mortgage market”), I just simply listen, watch and wait. Owners need their comfort. Thank God they have Global TV. Just like all the TV anchors with good haircuts who told you to hold onto your stocks in 2008. People need comfort when things go bad.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 11:22 am 41
I have a serious question for the commenters on this blog. How much do you think real estate prices will drop in Vancouver? And why?
TD Bank is calling for a 15% drop over 3 years. Is this realistic. I’m thinking it’s going to be more like 50% to 75%. What do you intelligent people think about this?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 11:32 am 42
@rp1: The funny thing is, I have a feeling a “new” bubble is underway in some of the US cities: San Fran, Seattle, LA etc. They are back to bidding wars as vested interests (this time the banks that are underwater and holding off on releasing their foreclosures into the market) are trying to pump the market up so that they don’t lose money.
It’s like the world has gone mad. It used to be losing your home was a humiliation. Now it’s not. It used to be a bank that held more debt than they had equity would go bankrupt and the properties would be cleared by the market. Now not so much. They’re backstopped by tax payers for years and years until they unload their crap onto the market at inflated prices that they’ve manipulated. And they don’t mind seeing their customers get into bidding wars, and funding the successful bidder with a mortgages and saddle them with more debt than necessary because they want a better price for their underwater properties, while starting the whole process all over again.
I bet US banks will get back into the subprime lending business as soon as they can. And I bet, at one point, the US government will assist them in doing so or turn a blind eye once again.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 11:34 am 43
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: I’m with you. 50% is very likely. 70% may happen if we overshoot. 30% is like the best case senario, but very unlikely.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 11:35 am 44
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: No way to know the future, Joe.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 11:38 am 45
@mac:
It will drop 47.5%
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 11:40 am 46
“80% refinancing limit. 65% HELOC maximums.”
Can someone please explain this?
Does the 80% refinancing limit mean that if someone has a $1,000,000 mortgage on an $1,100,000 property and the term is for three years, that at the end of the term they can only get a mortgage for $880,000? or less if the property actually declines in value?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 11:45 am 47
don’t get carried away bears. you’ve had these good feelings and predictions before. remember what happened then?
this time is different, right?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 11:58 am 48
@mac
“The funny thing is, I have a feeling a “new” bubble is underway in some of the US cities: San Fran, Seattle, LA etc. ”
I hear you, and a lot of my friends are in bidding wars with other canadians in places like Phoenix, Vegas and Palm Springs. I keep hearing stories about how hot it is there right now. One friend even sold a few contracts for $500 to buyers that wanted the place more than she did. ..literally flipping sales contracts there now….I kid you not
and they are buying mostly with a HELOC that is large enough to cover the 30-40% down-payment required to qualify for a mortgage with a U.S bank.
All Ozzie followers, and all using the same realtor, mortgage broker and inspector (don’t even get me started that they don’t see the foolishness in this), and of course the realtor is offering them all “property management services” for their newly acquired real estate.
It’s all a package deal that they and many other Canadians are told about at Ozzie’s lectures
gag
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 12:01 pm 49
@vangrl:
Refinancing is not the same as renewal.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 12:07 pm 50
“refinancing is not the same as renewal”
so unless you stay with the same bank and under their terms, my scenario applies?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 12:15 pm 51
@vangrl: OMG!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 12:24 pm 52
Stick a fork in the Vancouver housing market… it’s done!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 12:25 pm 53
@mac: “OMG”
I know, welcome to my private hell that is my kool-aid drinking friends..
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 12:35 pm 54
this time next year, and the year after next, same stupid bears will keep saying the same thing again and again!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 12:36 pm 55
I posted this yesterday night, so likely not many people have seen:
——————————————————
Ladies and gentlemen.
As it seems we are passed the peak, and are on the way down, our next inventory milestone may be the perfect opportunity to have a real life inventory party. Haven’t you always wanted to meet VMD, BestPlaceonMeth, Gordolio, PaulB, Anonomouse, Mayaka, McLovin and all the others?
I suggest we start planning the 20k inventory party & 25 year amortization party. This milestone could come very soon or it could be a few months out.
Of course, we will invite “I buy 3 my husband buy 3″, and “25 year old male nurse”. Don’t worry, real estate pimp and realturd sniffing dogs will be onsite to protect bears from unwanted attention. As part of this event, we will have a high-end car auction for Realtors who can’t afford the monthly payments and want to switch over to the dark side. In addition, there will be a gold buyer on site for any Realturds who want to turn in the gold chains around their neck. Bears get first dibs.
Interested in joining the official organizing committee or have suggestions? Email 20kparty@gmail.com.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 12:46 pm 56
@vangrl:
Refinancing means INCREASING the outstanding balance on a mortgage. An 80% limit means the the outstanding balance can be increased only to 80% of the current market value. Likewise a HELOC can only take the total balance (including any mortgage) to 65%.
This will severely impact the ability of boomers to help their kids to buy by borrowing against their own houses.
That’s entirely different from renewal, which leaves the outstanding balance unchanged, and which anyone will be able to do at either the original or (if the CHMC insurance is portable) another lender.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 12:46 pm 57
@Anonymous:
If by “bears will keep saying the same thing again and again” you mean that we’ll look at price/income and price/rent ratios and if the cost of expected cost of shelter over the next few decades is lower when renting, then, yes, we will be saying the same thing again.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 12:47 pm 58
@Anonymous:
Nervous, a? Doing some self-comforting?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 12:48 pm 59
@patriotz: Great (and succinct) explanation, P! This should be made a part of a VCI wiki page of terms and phrases.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 12:52 pm 60
Interesting observation on chinese forums:
- A couple mortgage brokers (forum sponsors) came out yesterday to try to reassure the crowd that “it’s not gonna affect the Chinese/immigrants too much, because they have sufficient downpayment” (an argument I easily countered)
- A few people commented “The government targeted the “poor”/first-time buyers this time, it’s probably going to target the Rich investors soon”
- Some commented “Although the financial impact of these new rules to investors may not actually be large, the psychological impact will be.”
The new rules may have just pushed the already-teetering market psychology over the ledge…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 1:10 pm 61
Message to Cam Good. Real Estate is popping, hurry and fire up the yellow hellicopter and don’t forget to call gobal.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 1:11 pm 62
“one of these two idiotic parties is bound to “defend” first time buyers. ”
Why do you think only one of the parties would defend them? I would be truly shocked if both parties (plus the BC Cons, but maybe not the BC Greens) didn’t defend the status quo and try to keep pumping things. The majority of voters are homeowners. That’s all you need to know to predict the parties’ positions.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 1:13 pm 63
btw, my article re: “How to approach the July 9 mortgage rule change?” cotinues to be on the headlines of the Chinese web portal.
My key recommendations:
“1. If you are a seller, the last remaining best time to close your deal in the short-to-medium term will be now-to-July-9th. Because afterwards, the amount of mortgage that the buyer can obtain diminishes. After all, the so-called “Fixed demand” of RE is still constrained by the approved mortgage amount.
2. If you are a potential buyer, don’t buy between now and August. Better, don’t buy this year. After the new rules are implemented, the amount of buyers able to compete with you will diminish. Price will erode at a faster pace than the first half of this year.”
I’m surprised that it’s still high up on the headlines, as this website/webportal, like all Chinese media, is heavily sponsored by realtors/brokers/builders. Looking at the comments section, it’s dominated by bearish views.
Fun times. Stampede’s around the corner?
http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.westca.com%2FNews%2Farticle%2Fsid%3D234612%2Flang%3Dschinese.html&act=url
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 1:13 pm 64
@VMD: VMD, I’m curious how you countered the argument for “it’s not gonna affect the Chinese/immigrants too much, because they have sufficient downpayment”.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 1:18 pm 65
@VMD:
“I’m surprised that it’s still high up on the headlines, as this website/webportal, like all Chinese media, is heavily sponsored by realtors/brokers/builders.”
the Chinese naive gullible fools. that role is filled by a different group in Vancouver.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 1:21 pm 66
@vangrl: Maybe you should give your friends this to read:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/10/opinion/sunday/the-biology-of-bubble-and-crash.html
Be sure to tell them that Ozzie is the one with the biggest b*ner because he’s making all the money.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 1:22 pm 67
@900kCrackHouse:
They will be “indirectly affected” by falling pices in their neighborhood.
In fact, I didn’t have to say much myself. Several forum users countered with their own responses, something like “just because you only do business with Chinese clients does not mean they are the only ones buying/selling houses in this city” or “remember, Chinese is still a minority”
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 1:25 pm 68
thanks Patriotz!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 1:30 pm 69
@VHB: Of course, you are right. It’s even worse than I thought.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 2:09 pm 70
@mac:
The federal government controls what really matters and that’s ability to borrow.
All any provincial party can offer in 2013 is an extension of the FTB grant or something similar. The province can’t afford anything bigger. And you can see how effective the current grant has been.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 2:11 pm 71
dont believe me? get vhb to put his blog live and see what stupid bears have been said since 2006!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 2:28 pm 72
Well, more than 24 hours have passed. We are now in a new era of home buying – think 2006 and earlier all over again.
Assets where the asset purchase is funded with debt are driven by liquidity in the market. In the commercial world, there are not restrictions on how these markets can interact becuase they have no emotion, they work on economic fundamentals and move and they move in a market of competing buyers and sellers. The key I would say is no emotion.
However, the market players in the residential home ownership market are, for the most part, not financial experts in any way and generally not financial literate. For them, it is just a game of what can I get, how much can I get, how can I borrow to get there. This is especially true of the first time borrower.
The amount of money in the system is really fueled by new buyers as they are typically the only ones getting more debt. Move-up buyers get more debt when they earn more income – or – when we import money to the market through immigration or foreign investment.
The mortgage rule changes have generally attacked the lowest entry point. Although this does not directly affect today’s high-end buyer, it does cause a trickle up effect.
Now, even more so – the existing condo owner, who is desparately trying to move out into a house, but has no significant equity, no increas in income and now even no buyers, will not be able to sell, take their equity, and move into a bigger place. This “ladder” effect continues.
You should not underestimate the impact this will have – especially on Vancouver. I don’t see it will affect smaller markets where prices are not extortionate, but mostly this market where almost every first time buyer borrows the maximum they can in order to afford that small condo box – with the hopes – and dreams – that it will vault them into larger home ownership in 5 years or so.
So – here we are. Liquidty is being reduced, SFH in Vancouver are now no longer eligable for CMHC (period) and – - well – the foreigners are really gone from the market. Cam Muir must be pissed – -Cam Good may go the way of the geologist Mr. De Guzman and – - those who drank the kool-aid and bought in the past 2-3 years (or even 5 or 6) have nobody to blame but themselves for making what may be the worst financial decision of their life.
Anyone who buys right now as a first time buyer with little quity will be wiped out within 12 months.
Happy weekend to all – - I can see the rain is starting to come down and I think I need a drink . . .
I had a chance to back and read a couple of the old GVREB press releases (the honest and truthful ones and not the ones from the REBGV) – - They have been quite good so far at predicting the trends and the future. . . .
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 2:30 pm 73
@VMD:
Many ppl of the local Chinese forum don’t really have the sense of what’s going on in real estate market. They get their information from Chinese speaking realtors and mortgage brokers who try to make money off them. Just saw someone there said there is people lining up outside since Monday for the Moda presale tomorrow. And someone try to sell their no. 1 to 15 spots
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 2:42 pm 74
@G:
…people lining up outside since Monday for the Moda presale tomorrow.
These are famous so-called “Smart Investors from China”.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 2:49 pm 75
@Chabar:
I don’t believe people were lining up. They just wrote that to make people think its a good buy
They also said if you are the first few buyers, you get the VIP discount of 2%.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 3:00 pm 76
ya i saw this on Paul’s facebook wall post regarding the changes
Vicson Leung: ” I probably won’t apply to all those china man. Lol. On tuesday I was driving to work and drove by the moda sales centre. People were lining up already for a Saturday grand opening!!! “
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 3:22 pm 77
@ZRH2YVR:
“Move-up buyers get more debt when they earn more income – or – when we import money to the market through immigration or foreign investment. ”
Move-up buyers can get more debt easily if they weren’t maxed-out to begin with. Not everybody takes the maximum mortgage offered to them.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 3:30 pm 78
This is one the Sun’s awful picture collections, but the numbers tell the story.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/mortgage+rules+afford+these+Metro+Vancouver+homes/6826814/story.html
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 3:33 pm 79
@Anonymous:
Remember that most move-up buyers first bought when interest rates were much lower, and could take out the full amortization on the new purchase (i.e. take 30 years to pay off from that time), and so could take on a much bigger mortgage on the next property while making the same monthly payments as when they bought the first property.
Today mortgage rates can’t get any lower and the move to 25 amort has put an end to stretching out the payment period to keep the payments from going up.
I think the move-up market is going to be a major casualty of new rules.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 3:38 pm 80
@VMD:
“A couple mortgage brokers (forum sponsors) came out yesterday to try to reassure the crowd that “it’s not gonna affect the Chinese/immigrants too much, because they have sufficient downpayment” (an argument I easily countered)”
You have such stats on downpayments?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 3:39 pm 81
@patriotz:
“Remember that most move-up buyers first bought when interest rates were much lower”
Lower than when? Today?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 3:41 pm 82
@Anonymous:
If I recall correctly, new/recent immigrants are required to put down >35% DP.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 3:49 pm 83
@N: 1. Richmond house priced at $1,019,100: With a 5% down payment of $53, 650.90 you need a minimum annual income of $200,000 to qualify for a high-ratio 25-year mortgage. Monthly payment: $4,871.31.
that house is over a million so you would need 20% down wouldn’t you?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:01 pm 84
@Nezarb: “that house is over a million so you would need 20% down wouldn’t you?”
Yes but it could sell for 20K less and then you only need 5%. I think we will see a lot of houses priced at $999,999 very soon which were previously in the 1.0 to 1.2 million range. This part of the market will take the biggest hit.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:04 pm 85
Investing notes for Bear Market (phase II)
Oh glory … the long, painful bears-in-wilderness period is over as the gov’t has declared war on the property bubble.
Portfolio should now be loaded up with shorts/puts on Genworth MIC, Home Capital Group, Canadian Western Bank.
But now we are going to start seeing cracks in the “real economy” as employment earnings are reduced, tax revenues fall, and hardwood flooring contractors file for EI. It will be painful and will probably negatively impact all of us…even the bears. Get ready and get defensive and don’t gloat and be paranoid. This is going to get ugly starting today.
My guess is that discretionary spending starts to shrivel up faster than a lettuce leaf left on a Camaro’s dashboard on a hot Okanagan summer’s day. Watch some Canadian consumer demand stocks: Westjet, Canadian Tire, Reitman’s, Keg Royalties. This will be the next place where it hits…still lots of time to get short here (remember the agonizing wait for the financials).
And be patient and forgiving with the victims of this mess … they still know nothing!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:15 pm 86
@HAM Solo: This is when I so happy that my income is not dependent on the local economy!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:21 pm 87
I have another question for this blog: How do you think the new mortgage rules might affect condo projects not yet started but currently being planned? What will happen with the Little Mountain redevelopment on Main Street? Do you think the developer will go ahead with a massive development of 2000 condos? What about plans to demolish the Georgia Viaduct and put up condo towers there? What about plans for condos on the Musqueam Marpole Midden? What about plans for 50 storey condo tower at Surrey Central. There are lots of condo towers being planned for the future right now. Municipal politicians are acting like these are all going to come to fruition. Will developers walk away and stop building condos because of these new mortgage rules. After all, as some have pointed out, it’s the entry level condo market that is going to feel the biggest impact of these mortgage changes.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:26 pm 88
@Nezarb:
Good point!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:28 pm 89
@ Ham Solo
“Get ready and get defensive and don’t gloat and be paranoid. This is going to get ugly starting today.”
“And be patient and forgiving with the victims of this mess … they still know nothing!”
_____________________
As a long time tax paying bear bitter about subsidizing the largess lifestyles of those that could not afford it, I will bloody well be a “I told you so type” in the coming years, albeit perhaps in a more strategic and tactful manner. My coming line will be, “well, if I make more than you, and I sat on the sidelines all these years, doesn’t that tell you something about your ability to afford these ridiculous prices and the sustainability of those prices.” Or maybe something softer like “you really should get in on renting – paying an underwater mortgage is really throwing your money away now with nothing to show for.”
As a six figure single earner, you can be damn straight I will be saying this and I will be bringing it up at every social event, as that would be keeping with the trend of talking about RE at pretty much every social event in Vancouver of the past umpteen years (and no RE is not raised at every event, but RE is a obsessed about topic in Vancouver).
Why should I have to take shit all those years as a stigmatized “poor renter” while prices climbed to the stratosphere, and every hairdresser and Home Depot associate making 50k a year was buying a condo, leasing a BMW, taking Mexican vacations, and buying multiple properties, and then not be able to be righteous when prices crumbled. These people were acknowledged as “investment geniuses” on the way up, so now they can be regarded openly as “investment morons” on the way down.
Payback is a bitch – but we all need to learn that to prevent another bubble in our lifetimes (however unlikely that really is).
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:34 pm 90
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: All these projects are going to go ahead. The “Chinese”, whoever they are, local or foreign, we don’t know, are going to continue to buy and hold pre-sales and SFH until the city is like a Ghost City in China.
In the meantime, a smaller and smaller group of local buyers will continue to chase pre-sales borrowing their 20% from their parents now for the down payment. Used condos will languish. No connection will be made by the media. Inventory will skyrocket until one day either it collapses or every business in Vancouver is bust, leaving only Chinese speculators and their empty condos. However the Mayor Cam Good of Vancouver will still accept awards for Urban Development and pose for a picture in the Vancouver Sun.
That’s my prediction.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:36 pm 91
@VMD, “Fun times. Stampede’s around the corner?”
In CALGARY, the Stampede is July 6 to 15, an annual event featuring performances such as cowboys riding bulls. A popular belief holds that the bulls are made to buck because the flank strap is not tied around the bull’s testicles. This is not true. The Stampede is a lot of fun to watch.
In VANCOUVER, the Stampede will officially start July 9 and will last somewhat longer. It will feature castrated bulls being chased around by bears. This Stampede will also be a lot of fun to watch.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:37 pm 92
This just appeared on the Vancouver Sun website:
“In a report going to city council Tuesday, city planners say they’ve hammered out a long-awaited agreement with Holborn for what should be built on the 6.2-hectare L-shaped property at Main Street and 33rd Avenue near Queen Elizabeth Park.
The so-called policy statement is a blueprint for Holborn’s plans to build 1,800 units. It was crafted with input from neighbours who would be affected by the massive development.
Holborn bought the site, a former tract of postwar social housing, from the provincial government in 2007 for an undisclosed sum. The province made a commitment to the city that Holborn would replace the 224 units of social housing that had been on the site, and add 10 units for aboriginal people. All but one of the old tract houses were demolished in 2009 and the property has been vacant except for four families since then.
The province said the net proceeds from the sale would be used to create social housing elsewhere in the city.
But the development has been stalled for years because of a disagreement between Holborn and the city over how dense and how high the new buildings can be. Holborn had wanted to rezone the property for a much denser, higher development than the city anticipated, saying it needed the change to make the project financially feasible. The city and surrounding neighbours resisted.
The two sides have now agreed on a density range of 2.3 to 2.5 FSR or floor space ratio, which will allow Holborn to build a mixed community that includes stepped towers up to 12 storeys tall, with the majority of buildings in the four- to 10-storey range. The project is still subject to rezoning, which would trigger public hearings. The company hopes to begin construction early next year.”
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Little+Mountain+development+generate+million+public/6827424/story.html
So my question is this: Do you think this project will actually get off the ground next year??? Don’t you think it will run into more trouble and yet further delays due to the housing bubble crash and recently announced clamp down on mortgages??? What about other anticipated major condo developments in the Lower Mainland? Are developers seriously going to continue to add to supply during a real estate crash?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:37 pm 93
@Dan in Calgary, oops, text should read “… flank strap is tied around …”, not ” … is not tied around …”
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:41 pm 94
So back to the young woman who purchased a pre-sale unit in West a couple of weeks back. So at this point, her monthly payments just went up $130/mth without even a rise in interest rates. All those poor condo purchasers out there will be in for a big surprise when it comes for time of completion.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:46 pm 95
admin Says:
June 21st, 2012 at 12:33 am
Gresko/Trump is banned for crapflooding comments, that’ll work till they switch IP addresses or get bored of trolling.
============================================================
Dam good idea.
And don’t stop there..I’ll give you last
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:48 pm 96
@mac: Thank you for your answer to my question. Over at vreaa.wordpress.com, paul S. said this:
“new mortgage rules are a pseudo interest rate increase. Huge condo developments count on the speculative element to finance the ground breaking, and to build momentum for the bees to make honey. Bear Mountain in Victoria’s Highlands is a pretty good example of a monster development that drew in a large speculative element. The RE corrected here significantly in 2009, before moving up again with the 2010-2012 crack up boom. I’d be surprised if even 10% of these large condo developments, now on the drawing board, get off the ground.”
http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/06/22/notary-poll-more-than-half-of-b-c-homeowners-have-refinanced-their-home-or-property/#comment-41427
Both opinions sound convincing. Whom should I believe?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:48 pm 97
at this point, her monthly payments just went up $130/mth without even a rise in interest rates. All those poor condo purchasers out there will be in for a big surprise when it comes for time of completion.
Oh my gosh! A whole 150 bucks a month you say?! Well that will certainly crush her now!
Lol, no wonder you bears have been wrong for so many years – you have no concept of money. You think an extra 150 is a big deal. That is chump change, and most people view it that way as well. If it actually is hurtful, that amount simply contributes to another slow long bleed that will piss you bears off even more as you put your lives on hold.
150 bucks? hahahahhah
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:52 pm 98
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs: Uhhhh Joe Blow. You should calm down. Just because Flaherty adjusted the amortization period and put the CMHC under a regulator so now the plumber who is on the Board of Directors is going to have his resume gone over by a bunch of bureaucrats, is no reason to think the end is nigh.
There are still a few other factors that influence the housing market to say the least. No on on this board has any clue about development other than Dave. Ask him. He’ll probably tell you there’ll be a slight delay in timeline but all the projects will eventually be built, esp. where hard-won negotiations with NIMBY neighbours have been held. Big money developers have long time horizons anyway.
So what’s got your knickers in a knot? Are you planning on buying a house near Cambie hoping to cash in? I wouldn’t do that. But I wouldn’t panic thinking that by September prices will be down 50% either. What’s the big deal. We still gotta wait this mother out. And in the end, it might just be another 15% down. Who knows?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:54 pm 99
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs: What is going on with you? You shouldn’t believe anyone. You should calm down and think for yourself. Seriously? You sound panicked. What are you thinking of doing (because right now you kinda sound like a typical FTB in a showroom). Very easy to lead you around by your pecker.
Do you own? Do you want to buy? Are you a mega rich SOB and are thinking of purchasing a chunk of land the size of Iceland? What gives? Tell Uncle Mac all. I can help.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 4:59 pm 100
@Not much of a name…: She’s already signed and her mortgage is probably already locked in so the new rules may not apply to her. Plus her realtor dad will probably just kick another 10K her way.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 5:00 pm 101
I am simply interested in the future urban development of the Vancouver region. The condo boom has re-made this city, physically and socially. I’m just wondering if it’s going to continue. Are all the condo towers currently being planned for the future actually going to become a reality? I simply have a curious mind about the future development of the city.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 5:00 pm 102
Just curious how this site works. seems like certain people get voted up no matter how retarded they are, or if they rehash a bunch of statistics no one cares about.
Other, like a person named Dave or Anonymous are auto voted down.
Is this some sort of pick up site…coded language? PS Notice no chicks here.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 5:07 pm 103
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs: “Are developers seriously going to continue to add to supply during a real estate crash?”
The question is how much they paid for the land. They can build as much as they want as long as they can sell product: if they can drop the price and still walk away with a profit, why wouldn’t they build?
If they overpaid for the land, well, we all know how that turns out (cough Millennium cough)
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 5:07 pm 104
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs: I’d say yes. With a time horizon of until the sun burns out… all those developments and more will happen in the city.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 5:15 pm 105
Geez, we have not yet even begun to see the effect of yesterday’s announcements and already some pissed off journalists out there.
Pete McMartin of the Vancouver Sun: “The housing market is teetering. Happy now?”
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/McMartin+housing+market+teetering+Happy/6827464/story.html
So what say you to Martin, fellow bears? Are you “happy now”?
Personally, I won’t be happy until prices are cut 30% and I see halfwits like McMartin writing op-eds about how the government needs to protect prices from ever spiralling out of control again.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 5:43 pm 106
@paul Z: you can only discuss the crash here and nothing else. they are RE haters.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 5:45 pm 107
@Crikey:
This is of course the very same smug POS who along with his evil twin at the Province, Jon Ferry, was telling all and sundry that they were the new aristocracy and that everyone else, including their own kids, would have to live in a dog house or ship out.
Well Petey, we’ve been waiting for a long time for people like you to get your comeuppance. You bet we’re happy.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 5:47 pm 108
@patriotz: are you happy? what are you gonna do? i am sure you will be packing your bags again cuz ottawa is becoming unaffordable.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 5:48 pm 109
I’ll remind the journalist who wrote the story posted above that many “affordable-housing alarmists” are middle class families who are fighting to survive in this city. Many of whom read and subscribe to your newspaper. The investor immigrant program was scaled back, so some of the downturn that is happening in the market in some parts of the city is proving itself out. The rest of the market was pumped artificially by other government meddling. I’m still unclear as to what part of this housing market is actually a free market. (sarcasm fully intended)
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 6:01 pm 110
Cold and rainy days like this in the middle of the summer we have not seen yet, are here to remind us how absurd is to call this city “best place on earth”.
People are simply nuts.
Now, off to the border to save some money on grocery shopping and ruin the already rotten weekend waiting in line for 2 hours at the border customs before returning to the jampacked commute traffic on Monday morning. I love the Vancouverite lifestyle – Best place on earth my axx!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 6:09 pm 111
Regarding development plans, most all of those will go ahead, don’t confuse developers with flippers. Developers will be delighted to take extra profit from suckers during a boom, but they’ll keep on working through a bust if they can.
For one thing the cost of labor goes down during a bust because there’s less construction work. Any stoner can pick up a $25 hour job during a boom, but they’ll be glad to take a $18 hour job if they can get one during a bust.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 6:18 pm 112
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: “Will developers walk away and stop building condos because of these new mortgage rules.”
Absolutely not. Developers start off by preselling the condos before breaking ground. As long as they can presell them then of course they will build. The real question is will people decide not to buy presales based on the new mortgage rules. Not at this point in my opinion. In some respects presales could become more attractive. You don’t have to qualify for a mortgage to buy one. You just need 5% to 10% to throw down which you can borrow.
Longer term once people realize real estate is going down people will stop buying presales and then it will be difficult for projects to go through unless they significantly discount them. That may take another year. Some of the projects you mentioned may not go through if they can’t get the project going in the next year. My guess is in 2014 there won’t be many new projects. The only exception would be Concord Pacific projects on the former Expo lands where they got the land for free.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 6:28 pm 113
@HAM Solo: Ham solo, what about the fact that they are still paying dividends? Wouldn’t it be wise to wait until they cancel the first dividend and then short the $hit out of them? If you have a short position, you are responsible to pay the yield.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 6:28 pm 114
Vancouver All Areas*
New Listings – 233
Back On Market Listings – 6
Price Changes – 150
Sold Listings – 135
*Attached & Detached – Date: 2012/06/22 Time: 17:36 Pacific YatterMatters.com: Courtesy REBGV. Data believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 6:29 pm 115
Vancouver East & West*
New Listings – 81
Back On Market Listings – 3
Price Changes – 48
Sold Listings – 44
Vancouver All Areas*
New Listings – 233
Back On Market Listings – 6
Price Changes – 150
Sold Listings – 135
*Attached & Detached – Date: 2012/06/22 Time: 17:36 Pacific YatterMatters.com: Courtesy REBGV. Data believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:11 pm 116
@mac
“She’s already signed and her mortgage is probably already locked in so the new rules may not apply to her. Plus her realtor dad will probably just kick another 10K her way.”
you cannot obtain a mortgage for something that doesn’t exist ie: a hole in the ground–you secure the purchase with your down payment but the mortgage approval can’t be done till an “occupancy permit” is issued for the condo (that’s my understanding)
so you will be approved for your mortgage several years after actually purchasing your condo—a little risky in todays and the future housing market. If the market tanks–you still own and still owe–good luck with that
http://www.crd.bc.ca/buildinginspection/inspection/occupancy.htm
with these new changes, we may just see many of these pre sales being flipped –even though many of these were purchased by FT Buyers with every intention of occupying their purchase. The economic situation, one or two years out might just be, well, lets wait and see
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:22 pm 117
Some market momentum thoughts. I track in detail about 12 areas and the REBGV in total. I also have all the old Agent Will stats and continue to build the graphs and charts. Here is what we are seeing.
AVG SFH for June is down a bit from May but only 1%. There have been 2 or 3 $10M plus sales. This bumps up the average abit but things are definitely down. This makes it about 10% or so below last year.
Attached prices are down about 2% over last year and for the month.
REBGV Volume is down a lot. We should come in below 2008 overall. However it’s not evenly spread. Compared to 2011 (previous year) – the highlights on unit sales volume are:
VanWest SFH – down 50%
Richmond SFH – down 48% (last year was bad – we are now down to trickle)
West Van SFH – down 66%. On par with 2008 but remember 2011 was a spike up.
North Van SFH – down 40%. On par with 2008.
Burnaby SFH – down 31%. Will be a few units over 2008.
Overall, SFH coming in 20% below last month, 36% below last year but a few percentage points over 2008.
Van West Attached – Down 18% over last month, 17% over last year and 5% below 2008
Richmond Attached – Down 3% over last month, 26% over last year and 29% below 2008. This market is also very slow.
Van East Attached – Up 9% over last month, up 21% over last year and 33% on 2008. (This is the only sub-market with increased unit volumes).
Overall Attahched is down 16% on last month, 27% on last year and 4% on 2008.
INVENTORY LEVELS
On the inventory increase. Don’t expect any parties soon. We likely will not hit 19,000 SFH + Attached before September or October. We have stalled a bit now. The listing volume is slowing. Given that we get a constant expriy / cancellation rate, the lack of new listings means we will go flat on inventory now through the summer. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but this is how the market dynamics will play out. We will get poor sales but the constant expiry and listing cancellations will keep the overall inventory from increasing.
We do have some markets that are still increasing faster now than others. The following is the Month to date inventory movement compared to May month end.
Van West SFH – 0%
Richmond SFH – 3%
Van West Attach – 2%
Van East SFH – 8% (This is a high number)
Van East Atgached – 1%
Richmond Attached – 2%
West Van SFH – 7%
North Van SFH – 5%
Burnaby SFH – 6%
Months of Inventory?
This is a good stat to see what the overall sales rate is.
Richmond SFH – 14
West Van SFH – 12
Van West SFH – 10
Burnaby SFH – 8
Van East SFH – 6
North Van SFH – 6
Van West Attached – 7
Richmond Attached – 9.5
Van East Attached – 4.3 (This is comparatively low now).
So – What we should all do is just go away for the summer. Nothing is going to change in that time and then watch as all the people who have been unable to sell year-to-date – try to finally make a transaction into a weak market. Fall is the time when we will see the big price falls.
The activity prior to July 9 will blip up a little – it has to. But giving such little notice of the change in rules was quite smart to prevent any quick actions by people to move purchases before the rules. Many will be caught – but here we would say – many are now lucky to not be buying.
Happy weekend to all.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:26 pm 118
@condo watcher: Actually you have it wrong. I picked this up from VREAA and his quotation from the Department of Finance’s FAQ.
Q. If I bought a condo that is not expected to be built for another two years, will the new parameters apply?
A. If you bought a condo and have made a mortgage insurance application on or before June 21, then the new parameters would not apply.
Obviously, I don’t know the chick in question. I can only assume her mortgage insurance application is in with CMHC when she got pre-approved, presumably days/weeks/months before she went condo shopping at West. Of course, I don’t know for sure.
I do know that she bought on the opening weekend which was before June 21. However, I didn’t know that they would cut off the pre-sale buyers so fast. The day of the announcement–BAM! That’s it.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:49 pm 119
Patriotz said – “Well Petey, we’ve been waiting for a long time for people like you to get your comeuppance. You bet we’re happy.”
I’m with you in spirit, but I think it is still somewhat early to say that Petey is getting his comeuppance.
Ever play Jenga? The last day or two have felt like the whole Jenga tower has begun shaking a little — but until that tower falls, I’m not happy.
Also, I can’t believe Petey is stupid enough in his article to mock those who believe that Asian buyers have been a contributing factor to rising prices in Vancouver as conspiracy theorists: “Of affordable-housing alarmists who laid the blame for Metro’s rising prices solely on those offshore Asian buyers — without any hard numbers to back it up — their exclamations haven’t punctuated a newspaper story in ages. Maybe something else has caught their attention. Maybe they’re revisiting 9/11. You know, it really was an inside job!”
Um, yeah, obviously those exclamations haven’t punctuated the Vancouver Sun or Province in ages because those rags don’t tend to print anything that goes against their real estate advertisers — probably one of the last few sources of money for a failing print industry company like theirs. So Petey is basically saying, “Since the Vancouver Sun doesn’t print it, it must not be true!”. Somebody should get his head out from the middle ages.
And how stupid does Petey think his readers are? He mocks the influence of Asian buyers in an article the Vancouver Sun, a newspaper that has spent the last several months heavily pushing a new Chinese-version of their newspaper!!!
“Asian influence??? What Asian influence??? You’re crazy!!! PPSSSST – by the way, if you are Chinese I beg you please, please, please read our new Chinese newspaper, as we need more revenue in our dying industry and there’s a big Asian population that could influence our profits!!!!”
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 7:50 pm 120
Agent Will didn’t he bail to the US what a star
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 8:06 pm 121
@Crikey:
Thing is, though, that all the hard figures clearly show that very little Vancouver RE is being bought by offshore buyers, so it doesn’t really matter if the buyers are of East Asian descent, they are locals, just like the Europeans and South Asians. The bottom line is that prices were driven up by locals and will be driven down by locals. Bubbles are always inside jobs.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 8:34 pm 122
Oh my, this is simply too good to be true…
I looked up Pete McMartin, aka house pumper, after reading that ridiculous “yellow” journalism piece (not the derogatory term but a puff piece term), and found this little bio on the Vancouver Sun site.
Please pay particular attention to where he admits that “DESPITE BEING WRONG ON MANY ISSUES, HE CONTINUES TO WRITE FOR THE VANCOUVER SUN” and my favourite “HE HAS A SIZABLE MORTGAGE”…
I mean really, who writes they have a sizable mortgage on their bio. Somebody need to point that out in the comments section on the POS “editorial”…
Payback is indeed coming my little overleveraged real estate whore….
______________
Sun columnist Pete McMartin grew up in Windsor, Ont., which is a good place to be from.
By some miracle, he was accepted into the Journalism program at Ryerson Polytechnical Institute in Toronto. There, he succeeded in not completing his first-year economics course, an oversight that resulted in his not receiving a Journalism degree. Between his first and second years at Ryerson, he worked in a Chrysler car plant so that he might bankroll his last two years in school. There, he learned how to attach windshields to car bodies and that he preferred employment that didn’t entail physical exertion.
After graduation, he applied at every newspaper in Canada and received two replies: one from the Owen Sound Packet and Times, one from The Vancouver Sun. The Sun paid more handsomely. He has been with the paper since 1976, an awfully long time to work in one place.
In those 25 years, he has been a harbour reporter (where he routinely suffered from seasickness), a travelling feature writer, a city columnist and sports columnist. Despite being wrong on many issues consistently, he continues to write a column for The Sun.
He is married and has three children.
He has a sizable mortgage.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 8:39 pm 123
@ ytln
Last year at this time Genworth MIC was $26/share, now it is $18.50. Dividend for the year is about $1.25. My guess is that next year MIC will trade below $10. Would you pay $1.25 to make $8.00? That’s what I’ve been doing.
Just by-the-by, once the cult of RE is destroyed in this country, the next candidate for destruction is the cult of the unwarranted dividend. It is fine to pay a dividend on real earnings at an appropriate level, but so much of the “yield” in the market is being paid out by highly leveraged financial companies whose asset base is about to be mauled one way or another by the collapse of residential RE.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 9:35 pm 124
@Crikey:
Happy now? Ya…I have that Sheryl Crow song in my head…”If it makes you happy…it can’t be that bad….”
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 9:49 pm 125
121 N Says: “The bottom line is that prices were driven up by locals and will be driven down by locals. Bubbles are always inside jobs.”
It matters greatly where the money, not the buyer, comes from. Someone who steps off a plane and buys a home is only a local in a very limited and non-economic sense. It’s extremely important if the government sees them as another tool in the policy kit for stimulating real estate.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 9:52 pm 126
@mac:
This doesn’t make any sense to me, it doesn’t look like the question asked was answered. If you bought a condo and have made a mortgage insurance application before the deadline then the new rules don’t apply. BUT you can not get a mortgage on a pre-sales until it is complete. You can get a rate-hold for up to 3 years, but no mortgage.
How can you apply for mortgage insurance without a mortgage? As far as I know you can’t, which means all presales contracts bought now for building that won’t complete until after July 9th will be under the new rules.
If anyone knows better please correct me.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 9:57 pm 127
‘N’ said: “all the hard figures clearly show that very little Vancouver RE is being bought by offshore buyers, so it doesn’t really matter if the buyers are of East Asian descent, they are locals, just like the Europeans and South Asians.”
First of all, let me stress very clearly that I don’t care where the new hot money comes from, or what the people who bring it in look like. They can be from Russia, China, the US, or Mars for all I care.
The problem is the very uneven playing field that *encourages* people much wealthier than the average Canadian to enter our country and directly compete with us (and beat us) for the same resources.
The problem is that the newest of these “locals” you speak of have only been allowed into Canada because they have big, big bucks. It is part of government policy — and as a result the rest of us with “average” finances are outbid by them…from living in what used to be very average neighbourhoods.
Only a couple of decades ago, the policy was to allow hard-working people of modest means into the country. I have many friends of many backgrounds that came into Canada this way. We all worked side-by-side, worked hard, and most importantly all existed on an equal playing field.
If it has come down to just money, money, money, for this country… and not citizens… in that we are only encouraging the richest people in the world to come in and absentmindedly shoving the others aside…then that sounds more like a policy of Whores than a policy of a Land of Opportunity.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:03 pm 128
@Payback:
Wow, great scoop on Petey! LOL
Let’s see now…if he has a sizeable mortgage, he will be underwater once prices fall down far enough, right?
Combine that with his fixation with the colour “Yellow”, and what do we get?
Petey will be living in a Yellow Submarine before long!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:27 pm 129
@BulbsforSale
you’re right –bottom line is you can be pre approved for a mortgage for a long lenght of time but no mortgage will be finalized until the place is built
i can get pre approved for a mortgage today for 400k–(can keep renewing at the banks rate every 90 to 120 days till completion) buy a pre sale tomorrow for say 500k—2 years from now on completion the place is now appraised at 300k–i certainly wont get my 400k mortgage
under no cicumstances will you be approved for a mortgage 2 years out by any bank or credit union
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:29 pm 130
!!!!!Free house In Dunbar!!!!!
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11780031&PidKey=70202080
Best of all it has “surge protection” = dont expect the house price to surge any further
Dunbar = snooty lame boring neighborhood
Over & Out
Rodger Dodger
10-4
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 10:50 pm 131
@Crikey:
Here again, the numbers show that only a very small percentage of Vancouver sales can be accounted for by investor visa recipients.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 11:06 pm 132
#109 @ReadyToPop: “I’m still unclear as to what part of this housing market is actually a free market.”
Newspaper editorials?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 11:08 pm 133
@N: No they’re not. Spains bubble was drive in large part by the British. Same thing happening here only everyone who hears the word Chinese immediately thinks race rather than economy. That’s their fault. Plus there is not data on race or how money moves. So don’t bore me with data shows… data shows nothing that is impossible to collect.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 11:53 pm 134
@Payback:
“He (McMartin) has a sizable mortgage.”
McMartin has been a homeowner in metro Vancouver since the mid-1980′s at least (I can remember him saying so in his column), when the benchmark house in Vancouver was $125K and the maximum amortization was 25 years.
So by his own admission he’s a poster boy for chronic debt syndrome.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 22nd, 2012 at 11:56 pm 135
@mac:
If you don’t wan to bring data into it, there is not much left to say.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 12:14 am 136
@mac:
“Spains bubble was drive in large part by the British.”
Yes, in the coastal areas where British residents (who need no visa to live or work in Spain) and investors have long been a documented fact.
It’s also a documented fact that the bubble extended to many other places in the country which have few British residents or ownership.
Plus you can fly from one country to another in a few hours for as little as a hundred euros.
There’s really no analogy to China and Vancouver at all – the situation between the Spain and the UK is like between Florida or Arizona and other states in the US.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 12:34 am 137
@condo watcher: The FAQ was clear, only a sales agreement before the end of 2012 can qualify under old rules. A preapproval is not a sales agreement. The government saw how sales surged last time the rules were tightened. Not this time.
Their timing is interesting. Why now? My guess is they’re worried about something that would cause people to buy in the next few months; added liquidity in global financial markets?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 12:41 am 138
And look at this little gem that Robert wrote with none other than Tsur Somerville back in 2005:
http://www.sauder.ubc.ca/Faculty/People/Faculty_Members/~/media/Files/Faculty%20Research/Publications/Helsley-Paper-BoomsBustsBubbles.ashx
A masterpiece of mealy-mouthed equivocation that failed to call the massive bubble in the US at the time but made fun of those who did:
But maybe people who buy RE aren’t rational. Ya think?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 1:20 am 139
@Crikey: He says sellers don’t care who buys their home so long as it’s a good price….well I dont care what price they get cause they’re the ones that are leaving the city….good riddance and sorry about the failed flip!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 1:53 am 140
“has been with The Sun since 1976, a year in which, as the paper’s newly-minted harbour reporter, he caused a small riot on the Vancouver fishermen’s wharf by erroneously reporting the price of crab.”
Don’t take McMartin too seriously. He was trolling long before the internet was invented.
http://www.vancouversun.com/columnists/pete_mcmartin.html
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 2:06 am 141
[Effect of mortgage rule tightening on rent]
A few pumpers on the Chinese RE forum are fixated on possible upward pressure on rent, and how the current landlords will benefit from the mortgage rule changes. Their reason is as follows:
1. Fewer first-time buyers able to afford starter-home, thus stuck being tenants.
2. More tenants = higher demand for rental housing = rent increases.
3. Interest rate stays low, keeping landlords’ costs down.
******************
To counter the above points, I can think of the following:
1. More first-time buyers may now choose to stay with parents / share accommodations to keep housing cost down, especially in the current setting of poor economy.
2. In an already-declining RE market now exacerbated by new mortgage rule changes, price will fall noticeably. Any potential increase in rent will not be sufficient to compensate for the fall in house value.
3. It makes more sense to cash out now (and perhaps buy back at a reduced price few years later) then to hold on and wish for higher rental yield.
4. In U.S. , “Owner’s Equivalent Rent” (OER) did show a slight uptick (~2%) in mid-late 2006 (midst of rapid housing decline); however it was followed by a prolonged downward trend in OER lasting several years. I suppose poor economic conditions (declining wages/employment)at the end dictated the reduction in rent. The initial slight uptick in OER is harder to rationalize though… Is there a better marker for rent than OER?
http://hjhuney.com/alt/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/caseshiller10_vs_oer.jpg
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 2:13 am 142
@VMD:
Oh also, Thousands of new condo inventory about to be unleashed to several areas in Greater Vancouver in the next 1-3 years.
That should more-than-enough offset the potential increase in tenants.
And as Jesse had repeatedly pointed out, StatsCan showed BC’s population growth rate is at multi-year lows (~1% in 2011-2012Q1, vs 1.7%-1.8% during 2007-2010). That’s also going to negatively affect tenant/buyer pool.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 2:24 am 143
Just announced by RBC mortgage specialist Jason Wang, Effective June 22, RBC will reduce 3-year fixed mortgage rate by 0.1%
RBC will also consider matching other bank’s rates
When asked if 30-year amort is still ok, he said
“RBC Homeline requires 20% down, or, 20% equity for refinance
so 30yr should be ok.
unless, gov come up w/ new policy saying “all” mortgages, no matter what the DP is, will require to use 25yr amo. i hope not.”
I wonder if OSFI will try to get banks to phase out 30-year Amorts in the >20%DP (ie. non-CMHC) segment..
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 3:20 am 144
@VMD: Concurrent convos heard in cubicle, one side Mandarin the other side Cantonese, as told by a friend, both were discussing how to improve their income if they were to lose their relatively well-paid jobs at a large multinational firm with significant exposure in Europe, that is currently undergoing some reorganization.
Both discussions were around renting out suites and rooms to foreign students to supplement potentially reduced incomes. My friend, who understands both dialects fluently, was laughing her head off. Great minds think alike; fools seldom differ.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 3:25 am 145
@VMD:
You forgot the biggie:
If there are fewer owner-occupied dwellings, there have to be more rental dwellings.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 5:43 am 146
@N:
“Here again, the numbers show that only a very small percentage of Vancouver sales can be accounted for by investor visa recipients.”
Yawn – show us your magic data, then. Show us this “data” that the bank or real industry reports in the last several years have refused to find. Over and over again, those big-money boys have produced reports on the current state and future of sales, with big caveats that they have no data on how much of a factor foreigners (and ostensibly new foreigners and their families) are playing.
Go on, show us solid, reliable data, and not just other people who are saying what you say. Good. Solid. Data.
Then prep your CV, because I reckon if you have reliable data on the topic that major banks and industry players haven’t had for years, then they will want to hear from you.
Links, please?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 6:11 am 147
@YLTNboomerang: If you wait that long, sometimes you can’t borrow shares any more. Last year already Chanos complained that his hedge fund wanted to short Australian banks but there wasn’t a single share left to be borrowed.
Paulb must have been swamped yesterday. Hope he got a good night’s sleep.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 7:41 am 148
Globe and Mail claims “Even right in the sizzling Vancouver market, between 75 and 80 per cent of all purchasers buy either in cash or with substantial down payments”
Wtf? Really? Does the data really show that there is very little CMHC insuring going on in the Vancouver market? I highly doubt this is the case…someone want to show us the data to refute this?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/targeting-high-end-mortgages-more-politics-than-protection-experts-say/article4365313/
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:25 am 149
China may be over reporting electricity consumption.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/23/business/global/chinese-data-said-to-be-manipulated-understating-its-slowdown.html?_r=1&hp
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:36 am 150
@fixie guy: “It’s extremely important if the government sees them as another tool in the policy kit for stimulating real estate.”
I guess you haven’t been paying attention to government policy. The government is tightening CMHC lending and has been for some time. That is not a policy to stimulate real estate.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:41 am 151
@Crikey: Are you the last of the idiots that think it is foreign money driving real estate? It is locals you are ‘competing’ with that is driving the market.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:42 am 152
@pricedoutfornow: That 75-80% figure is just for the $1M+ homes. It makes sense, most people buying the very expensive homes are move-up buyers and high net worth individuals.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:44 am 153
@mac: “Spains bubble was drive in large part by the British.”
Ok well it is settled then the Chinese are driving our market.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:45 am 154
Here are my daily figurings. The inventory is from June 21st. The sale projection bumped up to 2491 with the higher-than-average Friday sales count.
Total days 21
Days elapsed so far 16
Weekends / holidays 6
Days missing 0
Days remaining 5
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales 117
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings 246
SALES
Sales so far 1906
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 585
Projected month end total 2491
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 4246
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1230
Projected month end total 5476
Sell-list so far 44.9%
Projected month-end sell-list 45.5%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of June 21, 2012 19346
Current MoI at this sales pace 7.77
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:46 am 155
@Payback: he’s from a small Ontario town, was a bad student yet still got into school and a good job, he didn’t have to take on debt because he could work at a car plant ( instead of Starbucks. And he has a huge mortgage.
This guy is a poster child for the ignorant, entiltiled baby boomer transplants that lower the average iq of this city and are responsible for this rediculous bubble. Why does bc get the flakes from all the other provinces?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:50 am 156
“It is, by definition, impossible to identify a bubble before it bursts”
This is the most f-cked up statement I have ever heard. Most bubbles are obvious as is the Vancouver real estate bubble. The part that is impossible is to predict is exactly when it will pop.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:58 am 157
“That 75-80% figure is just for the $1M+ homes.”
So the Vancouver West SFH market just lost 20 to 25% of the buying pool. That is more than enough to correct the market.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:14 am 158
@Crikey:
Although I don’t mind share information with you, I won’t spend my morning looking up links for you. You can search this site if you like, as the data has been posted many times. But you don’t even need charts and graphs for this one. There were 32000 homes sold in Vancouver last year. The annual cap for the investor visa program for all of Canada is 700. Even assuming that they all bought homes in Vancouver, the impact would be negligible.
Don’t get me wrong, I know that some expensive houses are being bough with dirty money from China, but the vast majority of homes are being bought with borrowed money from Canadian banks.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:21 am 159
I feel so good to be liquid and renting right now. Even better than I have felt for the last few years.
As prices marched up I knew it was wrong and that they would eventually correct but nonetheless it didn’t feel very good. My disappointment was eased by the fact I was living in a place at 31% the cost of owning it and my family was very happy. All in all it was not a bad place to be because if I was wrong I would gladly go on renting forever, deploying my cash elsewhere and enjoying the things I could never otherwise afford if I had a bloated mortgage.
Now that prices have clearly topped and we are on the slow (at times fast) inevitable march down it feels so much better. Basically, most Vancouver prices are getting lower every month. This will have a very pronounced effect on the buyer. Instead of the rush to buy for fear of being priced out forever it will be replaced by the thought of why buy now when I know it will be cheaper next year? People will just sit on their hands. Sure there will be the occasional up month or increase in sales the that pumper will jump on as a restart of old price increases but prices will just keep falling for years.
This market has been cooked for at least 6 months now the data is backing it up. The change in CMHC rules is the final stake in Vancouver RE’s coffin! I doubt how many people realize how pronounced that is going to be. People forget that the market plunged 15% in a few short months in 2008 until the Fed’s introduced 30-35-40% Am mortgages, $0 down and rock bottom interest rates. Those things artificially stimulated Van RE and will make the coming crash much worse.
If any one is reading this that is even remotely considering buying a property in Vancouver I urge you to strip away the hype and focus on the fundamentals. The risks to the downside are so much more pronounced that any chance of the market continuing to go up. Do yourself a huge favour and do nothing! In 6 – 12 months people will look at renters with envy instead of scorn just like they do in the US.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:33 am 160
As usual, I’m keeping an eye on the pimps, and the pimpettes, (is that a real word?).
Last night, I heard a very important announcement on the radio.
Angela C was briefing her fans on the changes to the mortgage rules, I was so relieved to hear, that she is available to help….. just a phone call away!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:38 am 161
@McLovin: Please dont buy anything right now. If I cant afford anything, neither should you!
A year or two from now, nothing will change. this blog is still here, you are still here.
Only VHB is the smart guy. while advocating a bear market, he bought while he could years ago!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:49 am 162
$1M+ isn’t even that expensive in metro Vancouver. Using a map search on realtor.ca with Lighthouse Park in the top left corner and Aldergrove in the bottom right, I get 23% of homes listed for $1M+. This includes an awful lot of exurban homes and condos, so it is pretty amazing that the percentage is so high. This percentage generally gets higher if one zooms in to include only the more central areas of metro Vancouver.
I find the “75-80% buying $1M+ homes have cash” figure hard to believe, but even if it is true then there are still 20% of the buyers shut out from 23% of the currently listed homes. At the very least this is another small downwards force (though I personally suspect it will be a massive game changer in the $700k to $2M+ market.)
(Another thing … doing similar searches for $1M+ in US metro areas using Zillow never produces such high percentages. Sure Manhattan is 45%, but NYC as a whole is only 15%, and the metro area less again. San Francisco and Seattle areas are both around 11%. Los Angeles must be a city of peasents, and Portland is only 2.5%.)
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:53 am 163
You Saturday morning smile:
A forum from 2008 where people are voting on the appreciate rate of their home. YIKES!
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/the-real-real-estate-appreciation-rate-33318.html
Many Vancouverites don’t realize the true LONG term price appreciation of residential real estate is a shade over inflation. This means that we are so above the long term trends that we could have 0 growth for 40 years and still be over priced. People are so focused on what has happened in the last 20-30 years thinking it will repeat. IT WON’T.
Real Estate stops going up when the next generation can’t afford to buy the house of the retiree. We hit that 5 years ago. A market cannot be sustained on speculation and foreign money. A starter buyer cannot buy anything without CHMC, 3% interest rates and help from parents. Real Estate cannot rise in excess of wages and inflation forever unless people live forever. They eventually have to sell. Are the few hundred people who come here the only people who realize this?
Ask yourself this question: If prices dropped 50% and a building lot on the West side was $1.2 million and a studio apt was $160K would you think that was cheap? I bet the answer is no.
Enough said.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:53 am 164
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=V938841
Originally sold for $214,900 (presumably 5 years ago) according to the listing
Assessed at $186,000
Listed in March for $199,000
6 price drops later it is down to $160,000
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:55 am 165
One more since it is very relevant to the new mortgage rules:
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=F1213537
Listed in May for $1.23 million
Dropped down to $998,875 yesterday
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:55 am 166
157 N Says: “..but the vast majority of homes are being bought with borrowed money from Canadian banks.”
Maybe I missed it but I’m not aware of any data on the source of funding for million-plus dollar homes in Vancouver.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:56 am 167
The new mortgage rules will be dropped as fast as they were brought in. We saw it happen after the financial crisis and it will happen again.
Before you downvote me off the page, give me one reason why the Conservatives won’t change the rules again to spare the baby boomers ( largest most powerful voting group ) ?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 10:03 am 168
@Bull! Bull! Bull!: “give me one reason why the Conservatives won’t change the rules again to spare the baby boomers ”
Because the feds are trying to avoid a big financial blowout / bank bailout / crisis.
I don’t know if they will avoid it, but I think all evidence is that F and C are clearly *trying* to avoid it.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 10:12 am 169
@an observer: “Listed in May for $1.23 million Dropped down to $998,875 yesterday”
I think this 1 Million cap on CMHC is going to put a lot of downward pressure on the whole market. Realtors are going to try to list everything close to a million at under 1 million to keep the CMHC insurance option. Remember most people get their property valuation from realtors when thinking about listing a place. The realtor will tell them it will only sell for 999K now to make an easier sale. This will drag the whole market down. For example the house above is now 998K from 1.23 million. That will put downward pressure on the house down the street marginally nicer listed at 1.4 million. A house that was already listed at 998K will now never sell with the above house listed and possibly selling for 998K. This ripple effect will go through the whole market.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 10:13 am 170
@fixie guy: “Maybe I missed it but I’m not aware of any data on the source of funding for million-plus dollar homes in Vancouver.”
There have been so many you obviously have not been paying attention.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 10:15 am 171
@Bull! Bull! Bull!: “The new mortgage rules will be dropped as fast as they were brought in.”
If that is the case it will be because the market is in free fall and it will be too late. Have a look at the US to see how much effect a government can have to reinflate housing prices.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 10:20 am 172
#161 –
You pumpers are hilarious! You think that because people don’t buy they can’t afford to buy.
Classic. Keep it coming.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 10:29 am 173
@McLovin: “You think that because people don’t buy they can’t afford to buy.”
That is the case for most. And in 2 weeks it will be the case for many more. If people can’t afford to buy guess what happens? Prices correct.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 10:34 am 174
@N 158 The application cap of 700 for the immigrant investor class only affects new applications since July 2011. There are some 80K applicants waiting in the backlog with an average of 5500 arriving a year during the boom years 2004 – 2010.
Let’s say those 5500 arrivals are 1800 families (3 each) who bought their way into Canada on an annual basis. Given that they need to demonstrate they have minimum $1.6 million net worth it’s conceivable they would buy high end property. That’s 1800 Van West/Richmond houses a year they might buy.
Last year the number of arrivals in this class dropped 30%. That’s perhaps a drop of 600 houses sales in the upper range. Seems a tad coincidental to what we’re seeing in the market, no?
To say that these “investor class” arrivals have no bearing on the housing market seems disingenuous at best and flies in the face of the facts.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 10:35 am 175
170 Anonymous Says: “There have been so many you obviously have not been paying attention”
No data?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 10:39 am 176
@173,
Except I think there’s a subset of people who’ve saved a pile of cash the last few years expecting the markets to correct.
The people who can’t afford in 2 weeks are the people who didn’t save and only marginally qualified for loans through CHMC’s lax mortgage standards. Those would also be the people who thought buy now or be priced out forever or some kids trying to flip an apartment, without an understanding of the market… you should see some of the idiot kids trying to flip apartments the last years… Yes… KIDS… 20 something year olds… with no understanding of lending standards… I can say once the new regulations come into effect their pre bought condos could very well be toast…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 10:49 am 177
Just announced by RBC mortgage specialist Jason Wang,
Effective June 22, RBC will reduce 3-year fixed mortgage rate by 0.1%
RBC will also consider matching other bank’s rates
When asked if 30-year amort is still ok, he said
“RBC Homeline requires 20% down, or, 20% equity for refinance
so 30yr should be ok.
unless, gov come up w/ new policy saying “all” mortgages, no matter what the DP is, will require to use 25yr amo. i hope not.”
I wonder if OSFI will try to get banks to phase out 30-year Amorts in the >20%DP (ie. non-CMHC) segment..
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 10:51 am 178
@Dan:
Even if all 1800 of them bought a house in Vancouver (and it is unlikely that 100% of investor visa recipients are stupid), that would represent something like 5% of purchases, which is nowhere near enough to drive a market. And before you start making an argument based on what percentage of the most expensive houses this represents, stop and consider that markets are not driven from the top but rather from the bottom.
I understand that it feels right to attribute crazy local prices to some special cause like foreigners or grow ops or whatever. After all, these prices are SO crazy that it would make sense if there were some kind of special-case explanation. But the truth is that it has been ordinary Vancouverites who have been driving this bubble by taking on debt. Not only do all the data available point to this, but this has been the case for basically every RE bubble everywhere else on the planet.
We are not so special.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 10:58 am 179
@Anonymous:
Flattery will get you nowhere, but insults only reveal your lack of confidence from a position of intellectual weakness.
In the last 20 years there has been a demographic sea change across Vancouver, along with real estate price increases, that any moron can notice. Well, *almost* any moron, apparently (Are you blind?).
A majority of those people in Richmond and Vancouver that comprise that demographic change are now “locals” by definition. However, they and their families brought in large amounts of wealth which them into Canada, which gave them a huge upper hand in bidding for properties against locals.
Are some longtime locals part of the factor driving up real estate prices too? Of course they are, but only as a reaction to the new money they’ve had to compete with.
Why do you think that the biggest immigration hubs in Canada are also the cities where prices have risen the most? You really think it is just coincidence?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 11:12 am 180
@N:
How disappointing, ‘N’. You go on and on about how data matters, then when I call you on it you can’t be bothered to provide any. Nice, but your bluff hand is in the open for all to see.
Where is that data you were so keen on everybody seeing? I knew you were just blowing smoke!
You said: “Even if all 1800 of them bought a house in Vancouver…that would represent something like 5% of purchases, which is nowhere near enough to drive a market”
Are you kidding?
First of all, you are assuming that each person is buying only a single property. Surely you know that it has become commonplace to see lineups at presales, of well-monied “investors” that have been buying multiple properties up.
I personally know several “new” well-monied Canadians who own 10+ condos/homes in Vancouver. So that point you make is shot down.
Furthermore, 5% is much more than enough to drive a market.
All it takes is an obvious change in bidding by entrants at one high level point in the market for the ripple effect to occur and price changes to percolate down to all levels. Almost every price in the market depends on prices below and above it. (Seriously, I have to wonder if you have even see a train and refused to believe that a single engine is actually having an effect of moving the several dozen cars behind it along)
Really, I can’t believe I have to teach Econ 101 here. You can’t even be bothered to show me the official data that you’ve been lamely pretending you had, why should I bother teaching you the way real estate works?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 11:13 am 181
Crikey Says: “Why do you think that the biggest immigration hubs in Canada are also the cities where prices have risen the most? You really think it is just coincidence?”
That is simply not true.Tthe cities in the Prairies had the biggest appreciation percentage wise in the last decade. Quit looking for Chines under your bed you idiot.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 11:13 am 182
@ an observer (164)
check out next door to that listing–a little older but almost 200sq ft larger –15k less
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12084988&PidKey=1974862589
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 11:44 am 183
@Crikey: His data is the survey that real estate agents take about the sales they’ve had this year. The voluntary survey that only a fraction of them fill out. I bet the Chinese agents roll their eyes and throw it in the garbage.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 11:53 am 184
@N: Do you think that a country that “fakes” its electricity consumption can have some people in it who can think their way around the investor visa program?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 12:06 pm 185
OMG!!! What do we have here? A “student” buying a house with money from her parents in… gosh, golly, China.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/03/14/real-estate-overseas-investors.html
Money is moved out through China by, of all things, family. What a concept. Not really when you consider than tons of money is raised in private family lending schemes within China.
And like Crikey says, who cares if Chinese citizens stop moving money tomorrow (which it won’t) and is replaced by robber barons from Russia? It’s all about our government policy selling our cities to the wealthy. Money, money, money. Immigration used to be about people who needed safe harbour. That, I don’t mind. Giving safe harbour to 100 million dollars with 10 used-to-be middle class homes, I mind.
But that’s not true either. Because Ontario, former home of Lower Canada Village is run by old school WASPs. And once things start happening there (now) which have been going on here for quite a few years, they will take steps to stop it. See June 21st as a first step. They’re starting with over indebted Canadians hoping, like you do, that that’s all that’s needed to quell the market. If afterwards, there are still a bunch of cash-crazed foreign buyers causing more and more towers to be built near the Gardner and left empty, I expect they will take the next step, which you will call racist and I will call far too little too late.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 12:52 pm 186
mac says: “OMG!!! What do we have here? A “student” buying a house with money from her parents in… gosh, golly, China.”
One anecdotal evidence..how is that compared to 100 of thousands of Canadian Baby boomers dipping in their HELOC loans from Canadian Banks to finance the first purchase? You have been spamming a lot this forum.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 1:03 pm 187
@N Look at the numbers – Vancouver has been receiving 50% of the investor class arrivals over the last number of years. This is way out of proportion of its population compared to the rest of the country. No other city in Canada receives such a high proportion of “investors” relative to its population (the other 50% isn’t going to St. Johns).
If 3/4s of those 1800 millionaire families buy Van West homes each year, that money goes to locals who drive up prices in other suburbs, VI, Interior, etc. Then everyone else competes with cheap credit and lax rules.
While other cities in Canada have seen prices increase due to credit conditions, none have reached the heights of Vancouver because of it’s intake of “investors”. As well the immigration minister also recently pointed out that the ones who land in Quebec tend to make their way to Toronto and Vancouver.
If you believe that this has no bearing on the Vancouver, then why aren’t prices similar to say Winnipeg? Are you suggesting Vancouverites are just plain dumber?
I’m just pointing out reality here backed by solid evidence, but it seems some people are in denial.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 1:07 pm 188
fyi CanadianMortgageTrends just put out a
“20 Observations on the New Mortgage Rules”
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/06/20-observations-on-the-new-mortgage-rules.html#more
worth a quick read
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 1:10 pm 189
@VMD:
“re: GDS restriction. The new 39% cap will lower the maximum theoretical mortgage by roughly $57,000, or 12%, for a household earning $75,000. (This assumes a 3.09% 5-year fixed rate with a 25-year amortization, no debt and 5% down.)
If you combine that with the amortization reduction (from 30 to 25 years), it’s quite a one-two punch—amounting to a 20% reduction in maximum theoretical purchasing power.”
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 1:13 pm 190
EPIC Debate thread today guys! is it the Rich Corrupt Chinese or the Debt Fueled Greedy Locals?
Or could it be a little bit of both?
(No, impossible! That’s the talk of a lunatic!!)
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 1:46 pm 191
@plutonium: You’re right. I’m just imagining it at open houses.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 2:22 pm 192
@VMD: Thanks for posting that link. It’s funny to read mortgage brokers whining about the removal of their government subsidies. If the housing market’s lofty levels are entirely dependent on arcane government loan subsidy rules, then I think that tells you something about how sustainable this boom truly is.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 2:58 pm 193
@McLovin
“You Saturday morning smile:
A forum from 2008 where people are voting on the appreciate rate of their home. YIKES!
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/the-real-real-estate-appreciation-rate-33318.html”
How about the person who started that thread who also had over 1000 posts on their forum, talking about the amazing long term returns on all of his properties yet strangely he hasn’t posted there in the last 3 years.
I guess “early-retirement.org” no longer applies to him?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 3:11 pm 194
@VMD: I like this part:
It’s like popping in for an e-meter reading. I don’t know what all those fancy numbers mean, but darn tootin’ it’s going to end up looking like a prescription for some corrective Scientology.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 3:15 pm 195
@VHB:
“Because the feds are trying to avoid a big financial blowout / bank bailout / crisis.
I don’t know if they will avoid it, but I think all evidence is that F and C are clearly *trying* to avoid it.”
If they are trying to avoid a financial blowout they will simply ease credit restrictions when real estate falls too much.
Therefore, there is a floor in Vancouver real estate. Where is this floor VHB? 10, 20, 30% from current levels?
Sounds like bears should throw in the towel after a slight correction in prices. Or am I not understanding what you are saying?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 3:17 pm 196
@Bull! Bull! Bull!: “they will simply ease credit restrictions when real estate falls too much.”
Except that expectations of appreciation is a main reason to buy when prices are greater than rental equivalents. Once you remove that motivation, prices revert to fundamentals. You can try to ‘push on a string’ to re-ignite the insanity, but that doesn’t seem to work so well. (See, for example, the US 2009-present.)
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 3:44 pm 197
@VMD:
Check out one of the comments from the Canadian Mortage Trends article:
Well would you look at that? A mortgage broker who’s concerned about the financial wellbeing of his clients! And he has shown how much he cares by personally pushing at least 20 people into over-leveraging themselves into a house they could not afford, and at the peak of the market. And now he wants to start a support group so they can deal with the sad consequences of his previous “help”.
I get the feeling this guy’s support group is going to involve electro-shock therapy.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 4:02 pm 198
@Bull! Bull! Bull!: The floor is in Toronto, not Vancouver. They’re in early on the TO bubble and late on the Van bubble. It doesn’t matter what happens here. Only in Quebec and Ontario, stupid.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 4:23 pm 199
@mac:
Yes, your right! The floor is in Toronto! Good for you Mac! But the important point is that a floor exists. The Feds will only let real estate fall so much. Im sorry, but that means no real estate apocalypse.
Also, Juvinille insults don’t suit you. They make you look like a small minded person who’s come across something he is too ignorant to understand.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 4:26 pm 200
@VHB:
“Except that expectations of appreciation is a main reason to buy when prices are greater than rental equivalents. Once you remove that motivation, prices revert to fundamentals. You can try to ‘push on a string’ to re-ignite the insanity, but that doesn’t seem to work so well. (See, for example, the US 2009-present.)”
You’ll forgive me if I don’t give your options and wisdom too heavy a weight. I’m someone whole values reputation and track records.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 4:51 pm 201
@Bull! Bull! Bull!: “Sounds like bears should throw in the towel after a slight correction in prices.”
Does Canada have some magic powers that the USA, Spain, Japan, Iceland, etc didn’t have when their housing bubbles imploded? All of their governments tried their best to inflate housing while it was going down. It didn’t work. You think Canada can do by playing with amortizations? Too funny.
Besides there is not a federal election for several years and there really may not be much competition for the Conservatives in the next one. They are getting the crash out of the way right now. They know it is inevitable. My suggestion is to change your handle to Sell! Sell! Sell!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 4:56 pm 202
@Crikey: @mac: @Dan:
The housing bubble goes across Canada and much of the world. Edmonton went up more on a percentage basis than Vancouver. Figure it out!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 5:15 pm 203
The CMHC providing a price floor could also be prevented by free market types within the Conservative party. I’m sure at least some of them don’t appreciate the amount of government interference in our housing market.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 5:21 pm 204
@Bull! Bull! Bull!: I prefer to think of the term stupid as a punctuation mark.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 5:32 pm 205
@Bull! Bull! Bull!: The floor is on an elevator, right bull? You wouldn’t be a bull if you didn’t agree to that. The elevator will still be going up in TO. The higher it gets, the more the feds will cut into whatever corners of demand keep prices rising. Slowly. I agree. The don’t want to wear a housing collapse.
Of course, Vancouver is now on a different plane. HAM is shopping closer to Bloor than Blenheim. Only time will tell, of course, but the Feds are now focused on preventing the bubble from going higher. I agree they don’t want to cause a collapse (read: a collapse in Toronto, the only place that exists). That could mean more severe consequences for the BPOE.
Anon: I am aware the bubble goes across Canada and much of the world. It has played out differently for every city. And it will play out differently in different cities here too.
BListingAgent: If there are free market ties within the Conservative Party boy, I’d appreciate if they’d speak up. Haven’t heard from them yet.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 6:02 pm 206
@Dan: “If 3/4s of those 1800 millionaire families buy Van West homes each year, that money goes to locals who drive up prices in other suburbs, VI, Interior, etc. Then everyone else competes with cheap credit and lax rules”
That’s the old multiplication factor argument. Assume the cash purchases are equivalent to income, and even then it’s minuscule compared to BC’s annual GDP. The investor immigrant hypothesis affects a few areas but more importantly it gives everyone else an excuse to overspend. If locals decided prices were too darn high, prices would fall.
Correlating a dropoff in investor immigrant intake with price weakness… um there are far better things I would attribute weakness to now, not least the province’s population growth has ebbed, and not only in the number of investor immigrants.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 6:09 pm 207
@Anonymous:
“Does Canada have some magic powers that the USA, Spain, Japan, Iceland, etc didn’t have when their housing bubbles imploded? All of their governments tried their best to inflate housing while it was going down. It didn’t work. You think Canada can do by playing with amortizations? Too funny”
The bubbles in USA, Spain, Japan, and Iceland popped by themselves. If the Canadian real estate depreciates it will be from a stroke of the pen by the government changing CMHC rules. That policy change can simply be undone, and we’ll be back to where we left off.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 6:10 pm 208
@mac:
“The elevator will still be going up in TO.”
That’s baseless speculation or wishful thinking.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 6:31 pm 209
@Bull! Bull! Bull!: Huh? Are you saying prices will be coming down?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 6:37 pm 210
@Bull! Bull! Bull!: ” That policy change can simply be undone, and we’ll be back to where we left off.”
Your thinking is assuming a linear time invariant system. Based on all previous examples of speculative bubbles and their subsequent reversions, I contest.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 6:53 pm 211
@jesse: you assume we are in a bubble. That is an opinion not a fact. also, I’m not aware of a bubble that was popped by the government.
You probably think china was a bubble, but looks like things are right on track over there.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/18/china-property-prices-idINL3E8HI0HW20120618
If bulls were smart they’d buy this dip. But we all know that won’t happen
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 7:21 pm 212
@Bull! Bull! Bull!: Not in a bubble? Is that the best you have? Price-income measure says yes to bubble. “We don’t know ex ante” platitudes are great rhetoric but require ignoring all evidence.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 7:24 pm 213
@Bull! Bull! Bull!
If you think it’s the perfect time to buy, please go and buy as many as you can. Why spend your time on a forum that believes the market is going to correct.
Don’t waste your time here, buy now or you might miss the dip, and be priced out forever.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 7:24 pm 214
@Jesse
@Dan is correct and I’m afraid you’re way off the mark.
I ask you, if its purely about population then why have we not experienced an equal or larger price explosion in condos as we have in SFH? After all a greater % of people can afford condo and NOT SFH?
The price increases in your attempted explanation would be pretty consistent between condo and SFH. Yes? And why only Vancouver? Why has Vancouver not followed an similar path to Victoria or Kelowna if it about BC population trends?
Yet there has been far greater resistance to price increase in condo market than SFH. To ignore this bizarrely glosses over the reality of the additional liquidity that has massively poured in the SFH market of Van West and Richmond.
The trickle down has hit the other markets – but to a lesser extent.
The reason is simple. Investor class has almost exclusively been interested in SFH the and this liquidity has been the prominent driving force. To try and put price increases down to the general % increase / decrease in population seems to lack any conviction.
Sometimes you have to take your eyes from the chart or data and look at what has been happening on the ground.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 7:38 pm 215
@Bull! Bull! Bull!:”give me one reason why the Conservatives won’t change the rules again to spare the baby boomers”
The pipeline. After the economy takes a massive hit, we will be begging for that pipeline in true patriotic fashion.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 7:43 pm 216
@Crikey: aka @mac: aka @Dan: aka @Anonymous
some idiot trolling the forum
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:02 pm 217
“Vancouver sprouting cranes with 16 condo towers in progress and 67 others in the works”
Cheryl Chan, The Province, Published: Sunday, June 24, 2012
http://www2.canada.com/health/vancouver+sprouting+cranes+with+condo+towers+progress+others+works/6828388/story.html?id=6828388
“Sixteen condo towers are under construction, according to a database by Skyscraperpage.com. and another 67 proposed high-rises are in the works… Is Vancouver oversaturated with condos?…B.C. Real Estate Board economist Cameron Muir says the short answer to our question is no.”
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:28 pm 218
@Anonymous: “I ask you, if its purely about population then why have we not experienced an equal or larger price explosion in condos as we have in SFH?”
This has occurred not only in Vancouver but also other jurisdictions. People put value in the land, and control over its use, apparently. The bifurcation appears to be across the Lower Mainland, check out the Fraser Valley stats for this.
“And why only Vancouver?”
I think on this front immigration has contributed to Vancouver’s strength, however increased transportation costs can also cause city cores to appreciate more than the outskirts. This does not mean investor immigrants are the penultimate driving force.
“To ignore this bizarrely glosses over the reality of the additional liquidity that has massively poured in the SFH market of Van West and Richmond.”
So to be clear do you have data supporting the source of recent purchases? Just curious.
“Investor class has almost exclusively been interested in SFH the and this liquidity has been the prominent driving force. To try and put price increases down to the general % increase / decrease in population seems to lack any conviction.”
Yet the markets you highlight are by no means the majority of purchases in the Vancouver area. This is in effect claiming that rich enclaves are dictating what the rest of the region must pay. I don’t buy it, and can do some simple maths to figure out, if all investor immigrants purchased with cash and this was treated as income, it still amounts to a small percentage of overall incomes. In other words the vast majority of families in Vancouver will not see any of this money and must rely on their own incomes to support paying for purchases of property.
Look I’m not disputing that investor immigrants have bought properties in certain areas of Vancouver and that this has impacted prices in these areas. I am disputing that this effect has significant impact on the rest of the region, which contains perfectly livable housing stock and, now, is available in great quantities to purchase. Maybe we’re talking past each other here; from what I see investor immigrants are not capitalized enough to wag the tail of a $200BB province, rather their impact will be localized and locals who compete with them should heed warnings the Greater Vancouver area is running into a brick wall when it comes to financing future purchases.
“Sometimes you have to take your eyes from the chart or data and look at what has been happening on the ground.”
I reject the argument that we can ignore data in favour of anecdotes.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:29 pm 219
Telling it like it is in the Financial Post. Refreshing article:
“Terence Corcoran: The housing incentives bubble”, Jun 22, 2012
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/06/22/terence-corcoran-the-housing-incentives-bubble/
“Across the globe, including Canada, governments provide the policies that create housing bubbles”
“Canadians are following the incentives that drove other markets: Low interest rates, high-ratio mortgages, rising values that are free of capital gains, generous government-backed mortgage insurance, banks that have trouble finding places to put their money.”
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:40 pm 220
@outhseacompany
exactly. government and banking elite in tandem.
hopefully thenidea of yellow peril investors are put the rest by resident trolls/idiots on the forum
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:08 pm 221
@jesse investor immigrants are not capitalized enough to wag the tail of a $200BB province.
But @Jesse what you spectacularly overlook is that there hasn’t been a housing bumble in throughout the $200BB province. But rather just a section (mainly SFH) of a few sections (mainly in vancouver).
So to try and take Investor class that is hugely concentrated to just a few small areas of Vancouver and extrapolate it province wide is illogical. Clearly it doesn’t wag the province market tail.
Im saying it wags the tail of the SFH market in the main bubble areas. Which is why everyone is really talking about if we’re honest, right? Big difference.
Of course the impact gets diluted province wide. But if there is a (for pure example) a $600k profit on a SFH West house and that profit has been created by new liquidity, then of course it will have an impact. albeit a diluted impact as it disperses in various directions with a lesser costing house purchase by the original seller. Clearly the closer the greater the impact. Take East Van.
You have data regarding population yes, but the fact you have population data does not detract from the fact that the link between that and SFH house price may be spurious. I believe it is, or at least far less significant than other factors.
If you are sticking to province wide mantra then maybe we are talking past each other. But I’m talking the bubble areas. Also you are not afraid to use plenty of anecdotes when it suits!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:13 pm 222
According to BC Stats, here are the number of Investor class immigrants (including family members) landing in BC in the past few years:
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:24 pm 223
@s:
“Why spend your time on a forum that believes the market is going to correct.”
Im interested in knowledge. knowledge isnt gained by bringing your ideas to a environment and seeing if they can stand up to challenges. You dont get knowledge from siting in.an.echo chamber complaining about sour grapes.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:25 pm 224
Your stats support the SFH bubble argument. Look at the key bubble years. Look at the numbers. Now ask yourself what if the trend changed from a more dispersed or random purchasing pattern to a more concentrated area (or areas) purchasing pattern.
What if, in addition to the above, in addition to the obvious considerable increase in numbers, what if the purchasing power of these Investors also greatly increased during the 2005-2010 period?
Back to what is actually happening on the ground in addition to the data..
Thanks Jesse for providing the data.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:36 pm 225
@Anonymous: “Which is why everyone is really talking about if we’re honest, right”
I’m not really talking about it. I offer that the west side of Vancouver has been a victim of its own desirability. And I should also be clear that Vancouver has seen significant immigration from SE Asia for close to a quarter century now. That has produced a large amount of residents — concentrated in the “bubble” areas — who have economic and personal ties to their countries of origin and place high value on ownership of land. Activity on the real estate front can be plausibly attributed not only to recent immigration but also to naturalized Canadians who still directly derive earnings from Asia. So yeah it sucks to be a local trying to buy in Van West. By all accounts, now, based on sales data, locals are trying Van East on for size, as you mention. I still think the direct impact overall is limited; rather the larger and more concerning impact is one where locals feel it justified and reasonable to compete.
“Also you are not afraid to use plenty of anecdotes when it suits!”
I relay anecdotes but never to reach a conclusion. Check out mohican’s blog, and others like worldhousingbubble, for some analysis of real-estate-related data. I never pretend to know any better than anyone else, nonetheless analysis offered is only on data. Readers are free to ignore this and use their eyes and ears instead.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:42 pm 226
@Bull! Bull! Bull!: So are your ideas standing up to challenges?
As I understand them your ideas are:
1.Vancouver is different
2.Prices are high but there is not a bubble
3.New CMHC regs will make prices go down slightly
4.A slight drop in prices will be a good buying oppourtunity
5.If prices drop gov will quickly reinflate.
6.The reason no other gov could reinflate is because they didn’t drive prices down
Is that about right?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 9:51 pm 227
There have been no firm magic-bullet conclusions formed from anecdotes by you or anyone, just a belief that PR Investor liquidity (including non-landed BC as well as BC landed btw – lets look at the whole picture not part of it – including Quebec) plays a more significant factor than you subscribe to, and certainly a more important factor than broad BC population increases / decreases.
Just a difference of opinion, not fact. Don’t take it to heart.
Its but one of many factors, including as you rightly point out rampant speculation. I would question the extent of cheap credit plays in the high end but that’s for another day.
Once again thanks for the data Jesse. I believe it supports the argument.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 10:18 pm 228
@Anonymous: One has to allow for the fact that money gets here from abroad in other ways than through the investor immigrant visa alone. I simply cannot believe otherwise. I have family members who have been ESL teachers. Much money is moved through students.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 10:42 pm 229
Night. Exterior.
“We’ve got to stop meeting like this”.
BPOM gazed out over the skyline as Angela pulled up her stockings.
“I can’t help it Meth, I’m addicted to you.” Angela synched her waistcoast and gazed at him standing there in the dark, raindrops glistening in his flaxen dreadlocks.
BPOM turned to look at her. “Think about what they would say, what they would do if they knew about me and you.”
Angela shuffled through her purse looking for a cigarette. “Damn them all” she said.
“Damn them. Yes, but you know we’re playing with fire. Ozzy, The Cams – both of them – and a whole den of bears would rise up against us if they only knew the truth.” BPOM buttoned his jeans “Even that milquetoast Somerville would rise up against us, just think of the things I’ve said in print. My fans and your fans are completely different animals.”
Angela sighed. “I don’t want to talk about this anymore. Tell me again about the new mortgage rules, fill me up with your stats again you dirty bear”
…to be continued
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 10:57 pm 230
@G:
re: polygon’s “MODA” presale in Burnaby that opened today, with some people camping since Monday…
sold today: 138
total units: 249
ratio: 55%
yawn.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 11:08 pm 231
@Anonymous: “I believe it supports the argument.”
What, that about 1500 supposedly affluent families can control what everyone else pays? I doubt it. The numbers are off by an order of magnitude.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 11:26 pm 232
@Jesse What, that about 1500 supposedly affluent families can control what everyone else pays? I doubt it. The numbers are off by an order of magnitude.
Look at the numbers YOU posted – per year numbers. Look at the peak years. Compare with the Vancouver SFH bubble years.Kind of in sync yeah? Also a reminder that they are only BC landed numbers, so only a fraction of actual.
So an average of approx 4,800 per year. In a select few areas of Van. At the bare minimum.
So exactly where do you get the 1,500 from? I take it your taking one of the lowest recent years and dividing by 3 (for family) or something. Nice try.
Hint: that table you posted, which only tells half the story regarding numbers is cumulative.
Seems you like data. Until you don’t.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 11:51 pm 233
@Anonymous: “Seems you like data. Until you don’t.”
The issue is there are only about 1500 purchases per year, maybe 1000-2000, of these families, and they are dwarfed by the plethora of other annual immigration sources, and immigration of affluent families has been going on for decades. I’m stating that in no way I see it plausible that that number of purchases can significantly impact tens of thousands of purchases across the Lower Mainland. People are paying more because they can, not because they have to.
Finding a correlation between investor immigrant in-migration and price changes… interesting, supports perhaps demand in certain locals, I guess we’ll have to disagree on how widely that effect spreads region-wide. Thanks for the discussion
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 23rd, 2012 at 11:55 pm 234
@Anonymous: “I take it your taking one of the lowest recent years and dividing by 3 (for family) or something”
The immigration numbers in investor class include sponsored family members. If the average investor immigrant family size is 3 that means an intake of 4500 translates to 1500 families. Not that I know the average family size but I think it a reasonable estimate.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 12:35 am 235
Hi Everyone,
I just wanted to share a story with you all.
At dinner with the in-laws this evening, my wife mentioned my plan to learn and teach our children Mandarin. We asked if the in-laws were interested in learning it with us. My brother-in-law said he had no interest at all, and he said “English is the only language I need”. They wanted to know why I wanted to learn. I explained that there were so many mandarin speakers that it would be a valuable and practical skill. He said that there were too many people who couldn’t speak English, and that all immigration of Chinese people should be stopped. He added that they were rude and impolite assholes and that was why he had no interest in learning Mandarin. Everyone concurred.
During the discussion, others at the table said there were already Chinese kids who spoke little or very bad English despite growing up in Richmond. They were all also bitter and angry that Chinese mainlanders were buying up everything and cruising around in expensive cars, and that all the mall and shop signs are in Chinese.
Sorry to bring all this usual “racist” crap back into the discussion.
Oh wait, here’s the kicker: My in-laws, and all present at the conversation except me and one other, are second generation Chinese. All the opinions expressed were theirs, not mine.
I sense the hostility and negativity many people feel toward the wave of Chinese immigrants of these past few years on this blog. And it kills me inside that when ignorant people see my brother in law, or my wife, or VMD, or Jesse, (big assumptions there!) that all they can think is “there goes another Chinese asshole” because of these newcomers. That is the “confounding” of race and culture.
Educate yourselves, people. Whities be sure that you realise how similar we all are – it’s just a matter of who you grew up with. Asian Canadians – be sure that you realise that when Whities complain about incoming Asians, they really do not mean you. And when they suggest a slowdown in immigration – it’s not because they are racist. In fact, it may even stem from a desire to protect and preserve the Asian – white – brown – etc harmony that we have here AT THE MOMENT. Don’t take it for granted; it is fragile.
In fact I am sick to death of the fact that we can’t have an open and honest discussion about immigration policy and what it is doing to the social fabric of the area without some do-gooder getting off on a high horse about racism or claiming it has fuck all to do with real estate. Some things are worth preserving, damnit.
I am also sick of the wave of negative anti-Chinese sentiment building, and I am worried that it will spill over into the “abject racism” that grips many areas of Europe.
I am still going to learn Mandarin. (Anyone ever use Rosetta Stone? any good?)It would be ignorant and bigoted to try to claim that “all” Chinese mainlanders were assholes. I am not as bigoted as my in-laws in that regard
I play badminton with many of them. and as we all should realise, many are lovely, lovely people. Some aren’t, but many are.
That is all I have to say.
Peace out!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 12:50 am 236
Is any information available as to whether CMHC backed loans of $1M+ are significant in the Vancouver market, (ie. as a percent of loans in that segment relative to those without CMHC backing?)
I would expect the vast majority of loans that size would be uninsured (>20% down), with relatively few first-time buyers and more move-up buyers. Then again, perhaps it’s a price point where speculators feel at home, and hence why the $1M mark was chosen.
As a seller above the $1M mark, I wouldn’t be in any hurry to lower my asking price on account of the cap, since I imagine only a small fraction of buyers at that price would be limited by the cap.
Am I wrong? Are enough CMHC loans insured above the cap, that the new rules will cause a SIGNIFICANT shift in demand to just below the cap?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 4:33 am 237
@TPFKAA I used Pimsleur to learn Mandarin while sitting in traffic. They slowly introduce new words in a very natural fashion.
It’s my Chinese and Filipino-descent relatives that are most convinced that rich millionaires will keep arriving in Vancouver. I point out the affects of credit, CMHC rules, etc. I’m afraid this belief has gotten them in over their heads, but I don’t know all the details.
It seems ridiculous to completely discount the effect of these “investors”. Of course the CMHC, lending practices, credit expansion is affecting the vast part of the market. But many have pointed out on this blog that the market is driven at the margins.
It’s really a shame that any time the subject of immigration is brought up all the trolls come out and play the race card. Frankly it wouldn’t make a difference if it were American, African, European millionaires, the effect would be the same.
So to avoid the trolls, consider if a tech company like HootSuite produced 1500 new millionaires with an affection for West Side houses each year. They could buy every house listed at the moment and not be affected by the new rules. They would compete among themselves for the nicer houses driving up prices. Sellers would take that money it would radiate outwards. Non-millionaires would try to compete with cheap credit.
It’s a disservice to all Canadians, regardless of their heritage, to deny all the factors at play in the most ridiculous housing bubble in the world.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 7:51 am 238
@TPFKAA:
I’m not a fan of Rosetta Stone. I find Chinese Pod to be excellent.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 7:58 am 239
@Sunday: “Am I wrong? Are enough CMHC loans insured above the cap, that the new rules will cause a SIGNIFICANT shift in demand to just below the cap?”
They changed the rules for a reason. If there was little or no CMHC financing above 1 million they wouldn’t have bothered.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 8:23 am 240
@TPFKAA: “Sorry to bring all this usual “racist” crap back into the discussion.”
Then why did you? Nothing in your post is relevant to real estate.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 9:58 am 241
206 jesse Says: “Correlating a dropoff in investor immigrant intake with price weakness… um there are far better things I would attribute weakness to now, not least the province’s population growth has ebbed, and not only in the number of investor immigrants.”
The background assumption of this discussion – that only those entering the province under the Investor program are buying million and up dollar homes – is obviously dubious.
Likewise the attempt to correlate Vancouver price increases solely to population factors. It’s was pointed out ad nauseum on RET that Vancouver for the better part of this run was roughly tenth in the rank of fastest growing Canadian cities. Barrie led the pack for years. The analysis only has potential merit when cities are compared using relevant metrics. Otherwise it might have the unintended impression Vancouver prices rose because ‘everyone wanted to live there.’
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 10:09 am 242
@Anonymous:
I think it is relevant… real estate is composed of peoples’ homes, and I sense a lot of people do find it very relevant when those who have been here for generations cannot buy homes while newcomers can. It has to sting a bit.
but you do have a point. I just had a few too many alcoholic beverages and decided it was a good idea to try to spread some memes that I think are absent in the population of readers on this forum. But yes, on the whole it is better if we all shut up and internalise our thoughts and feelings. No more from me.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 10:10 am 243
@ N and @ Dan
Thanks guys, I will investigate Pimsleur and Chinese Pod.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 10:29 am 244
LOL I have to admit I am such a busybody crusader at promoting racial and cultural harmony and understanding. This isn’t the forum for it, I know. I feel so guilty every time I write something on the subject! It’s horrendous! But I can’t help myself… It’s sad to see so much misunderstanding and reductionism.
Anyway, in this post I just wanted to add how lucky we are to have Chinese immigrants as opposed to some others, because property crime committed by them appears to be nonexistent to extremely rare. We could have a worse bunch of new neighbours! That’s one of the many bright sides
A lot less would get written if it wasn’t for coffee.
OK, now I am really done. Pinkie swear. Don’t. Touch. The. Keyboard. Unless. Really. On. Topic. And. Not. Connected. By. Some. Tenuous. Link.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 11:35 am 245
@TPFKAA:
Re: only immigrants can afford to buy when locals can’t
Last time I checked home ownership rates where at all time highs in Canada. Are those not locals? Many people around here can afford to buy but they choose not to because renting is cheaper. I would also argue the majority of immigrants can’t afford to buy. Do you think cab drivers and 7-11 worker immigrants are buying properties? You have been sucked into the real estate industry marketing. They publisize rich Chinese buying a multi million dollar property which makes the news. You and others see it and then some how think this is driving the.market. This is one sale iut of hundreds that day. The others are mostly locals. The impact on the overall market is minimal by the big sale o the news. The real estate industry marketing machine wants you to believe otherwise and it looks like their campaign has been effective.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 11:42 am 246
I watch White Rock closely, LOTS of new listings this weekend. Noticing in the last couple months alot of house not selling that come off the market for a couple days and then come back on either at the same price or slightly lower. Just saw this one today. Was on the market for $1.2 M, dropped to $1.15 M, then pulled for a couple days. I see it is back up now, they knocked $100 off the price! This is my favorite house in White Rock and am actually a bit surprised it didn’t sell, but its been on the market for quite a while now. I doubt $100 will do it!
F1216215
Interesting stuff going on in White Rock….I believe it is ground zero for the RE collapse. Theres one new development right on the border in Surrey they call Summerfield. I akin it to the projects in Florida that never quite got finished before the RE bubble burst. Right now theres 93 properties on MLS in a little 5 block radius. Right on 8th and hwy 99 at the border.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 12:39 pm 247
@Anonymous:
Like I said I will not talk on this subject any more.
Here is one little data point to add to the collection:
This house
http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/listing?id=259321035
Is still empty and celebrating its one-year anniversary of being listed and unsold. A 9% asking price reduction hasn’t been enough to make it move.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 1:14 pm 248
Since I am such a Share-Bear today, I would like to share my recent renting experiences with the community.
When the basement suite tenant in our long-time house left, the landlord accepted the very first applicant to replace him. The new tenant was a nice kid, but when you are 19 and have already been kicked out from your previous rental as well as your parents’ home, it IS quite hard to adapt to a family based household that likes its peace and quiet after midnight. I the first two weeks alone, he held 5 parties/gatherings with 10 or more loud, shouty, drunk teenage guests until 3- 4 am. In our house that has no sound insulation, it is quite impossible to sleep with this taking place. It’s like trying to sleep in a crowded bar. Broken glass and beer in the washing machine in the morning. Cigarette butts and empties all over the path and lawn. Then we had had enough. We didn’t want the hostility of an eviction scenrio, having lived through the fear and threats when a bona-fide crack smoking prostitute was evicted from the same suite with her associates five years prior.
So we tried moving into a house three months ago. The house was a rancher, with two bedrooms and a crude loft conversion. It was mid-renos and dreadfully cheaply and quickly slapped together by the landlord, but something we could live with given the circumstances. It was close to the kids’ school, and had a nice garden and a garage, which I needed as I repair our own cars. The landlord said he was not planning to rent out the loft, as it was not livable space, but that we could finish it and use it to our tastes. I needed the room for work. Two days into the clean-up after we had taken possession, we discovered that the silvery grains that were visible in various nooks and crannies in the loft were loose-fill vermiculite – otherwise known as a breathable asbestos bearing health hazard. The landlord had mentioned asbestos tests, so we asked him if it was safe. He replied that the asbestos expert had said that if he was to be doing any renos or tear down to the house, he would have to remove it with the fully certified space suit wearing asbestos removal team. But, if you do not disturb it, he assured us, it was quite safe to live around. So what did he think living up there was going to do? Merely tickle it gently?
Well, turns out that that’s not what Health Canada guidelines have in mind either. They advise keeping the heck out of any loft containing vermiculite, and to seal off all cracks and vents to the downstairs. The house was like a swiss cheese, and we did not feel at all safe, especially given how the wind blew through the loft and you could feel the positive pressure forcing air down through the various holes. We immediately requested a cancelling of the lease agreement. Landlord offered to seal off the loft and the house, and then we would be perfectly safe. Having seen his work, we said no thanks. To his credit, he gave back all of our money but refused to provide compensation for the carpet we had bought for upstairs, the carpet cleaner rental and other cleaning supplies. We were going to apply to the residential tenancy branch but in the end could not muster the energy. He tore down the house right after, to his credit, instead of trying to rent out again. He works in construction as a builder – developer with the family business.
So then we moved into a professionally managed purpose built rental apartment and – we absolutely LOVE it!! No bs about broken anything or living with rats and asbestos or leaky roofs. The value proposition is so much better than any amateur landlord’s shack. It feels like staying at a best western: you pay for the service and you get it. We feel like clients to a service that cares about its customers’ happiness and well-being. No one is likely to kick us out for any reason. I heartily recommend it to any family. We live close to skytrain, a major shopping mall, pay $1200 for 1200 south facing square feet, heating and water included, and the whole suite was completely renovated with new appliances, counters, tiles, cabinets, sinks, bathrooms – everything was brand new. I feel so ensconced here that I cannot even get the tiniest bit excited about shopping for a house anymore. They look like moldy rodent hell-pits from up here. A comparable suite in the next building sells for 460,000. We could pay our rent for 25 years and still not come even close to paying that much, nevermind the strata fees and interest and utilities.
When renting finally works out, life looks pretty good down here from the ranks of the disenfranchised tenant class!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 1:18 pm 249
Michael Burry was one of the few who made a fortune betting against the US housing crash, shorting over $8B of subprime mortgages in ’05.
Here he is speaking at UCLA: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CLhqjOzoyE&feature=player_embedded#!
Back in 2005, certain questions stood out…
- Why are home prices diverging from the household income trendline? Answer: Leverage.
- What are the incentives of lenders that make mortgages only to sell them on Wall St? Answer: Volume at the expense of credit standards
- How much is consumer spending dependent on cash-out refinancings?
- What % of jobs are dependent on the assumption of rising home prices?
- When interest rates bottom, how far can lenders push mortgage terms in order to keep home prices and loan volumes rising? The answer
to this question would put a ticking timer on the boom
Bloomberg also did a half hour video on Burry:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/72756316-michael-burry-profiled-bloomberg-risk-takers.html
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 2:45 pm 250
@TPFKAA: Thanks for weighing in. What you say doesn’t surprise me at all. Having said that, it’s funny how when I say the same thing, I am branded “racist” because it is assumed I”m white. Whites are a funny lot. They’ve told themselves the story that they are the worst people on earth and have convinced everyone, especially themselves that they are right.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 2:48 pm 251
@fixie guy: Not to mention that no one on this or any other forum is privy to real estate data or data on the very private movement of money.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 2:51 pm 252
@Anonymous: “Do you think cab drivers and 7-11 worker immigrants are buying properties?” Yes. Yes, I do. I’ve met more than one cab driver of whatever descent who owns multiple properties. The Indian community produces lots of cab driver and lots of participants in the real estate sector.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 2:55 pm 253
@TPFKAA: There’s “the blog” and then there’s the posters. When you get voted up this much it’s because you represent the readers, not the knee-jerk posters. Big difference. Keep sharing.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 2:58 pm 254
mac says: “The Indian community produces lots of cab driver and lots of participants in the real estate sector”
But they ARE LOCALS with LOCAL money form Canadian banks, aren’t they? that is contrary what you been trolling the last few days about FOREIGN Investor’s money gobbling properties. GO AWAY.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 3:14 pm 255
@Crikey:
Wrong answer. Prices have risen just as much (if not more) in Saskatoon, Whitehorse, and St John’s.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 3:21 pm 256
@TPFKAA: I’m glad it worked out for you, I had a similar realization when my family moved from a rented house to a properly run rental building. I would never rent from an amateur again. Property managers who care about their buildings and run them as a business are fantastic to rent from in my experience. I’ve been able to get counters replaced because the laminate was scratched when we moved in and they did the work professionally and around our schedule.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 3:33 pm 257
Debating the influence of foreign money on local prices is hardly trolling, especially given that this is a real estate forum. You may not agree with someone’s position on the issue, but that’s not an acceptable reason to demand that they leave the discussion.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 3:46 pm 258
did anyone else notice that there’s a ReMax agent selling a coupon on Social Shopper for $1500 cash back at closing when buying/selling a home?
i guess business is tough to come by this year
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 4:18 pm 259
TPFKAA, may I ask specifically where you are renting (or a link to the management company would suffice)? I have generally noted professional rental buildings being 10-20% higher than other places (at least after factoring out all the desperate “Pai mah mortgage on my overpriced coffin nao!!” amateurs), and $1/sqft seems more reasonable than usual, so I’m curious…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 4:33 pm 260
@bobby: The question was: “Do you think cab drivers and 7-11 worker immigrants are buying properties?” The answer is yes. I think they do.
No. You, who can’t discuss inflow of money, should go away.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 5:00 pm 261
@oneangryslav2
exactly. no yellow peril in regina and they still manage to inflate RE to biblical proportions.
avarage new SFH in shithole regina is 6-700 k. world class city? no kidding. Where is money coming from? it is ALL loose lending from the canadian banks.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 5:02 pm 262
@mac: “Do you think cab drivers and 7-11 worker immigrants are buying properties?” The answer is yes. I think they do.
And where are they getting the money?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 5:10 pm 263
@mac
let’s try mac.. where is the money coming from? no useless drivel just give us the answer..
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 5:29 pm 264
@bobby: There’s no point. I think it’s a mix of foreign inflow and local Jo & Jo-Anne borrowing heavily to keep up. And you think it’s a credit bubble only. I get it. Never will we convince each other.
Unfortunately, I’m not alone in my views. And my views are not unknown amongst the Chinese. Globe & Mail commentary. This Saturday, print edition, not out on the online edition yet. Letters to the editor:
“The condo boom is largely financed by foreign cash-buyers. Making it harder to get a mortgage will reduce the number of local buyers looking to to live. It may even depress the market in the short term, thus attracting more feign investors in the longer run. Talk about unintended consequences.” Signded, David S.P. Cheung, Toronto
I hope to heck David S.P. Chueng is wrong. But I don’t think he is. I posted a year ago on Ben Rabidoux’s blog (also completely blind to HAM) that changes had to be very careful not to lock out local low-end buyers while encouraging rich buyers.
So I, like the people of Hong Kong, like the people of Singapore, feel that mainland Chinese money is driving our markets. Not saying Canadians (of all firkin’ ethnic stripes) aren’t punch drunk on credit, they are. But if there is no legislation limiting inflow of capital from Chinese, Brazilian, Persian, Russian, who the deck ever, then the decline merely represents a buying opportunity for them. Not to live, but to hold, during tumultuous economic times.
All I would like is to be able to mention this without this discussion being shut down by those who see racists under their bed. I would like the same limitations on Chinese spekers that they have in China. And yes, I think that working class immigrants also buy, buy, buy. It’s their dream. They live many people to a house to afford it. I’m not super bothered by that as interest rates and mortgage rule changes will affect them too. But big foreign capital, maybe it will, maybe it won’t. We shall see. Right now, HAM is in Toronto and that makes me feel better. With a big enough decline in real estate, there’s always the chance they’ll come back here.
Anyway, I’m sick of this discussion. I don’t care to change your mind. You should feel at ease. Mortgage rule changes have been enacted, there’s a new regulation, the bubble should be 100% deflated in your mind. In my mind, I will be ever careful not to make the same mistake I made in 2009.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 5:50 pm 265
@mac: Every incremental drop on Van RE will attract our wealthy Compatriots flocking to Van in a bonaza buying spree;Van is a safe place for them to store their wealth,and money for them is not a problem.Even the current price seems too cheap to be true.China has replaced US,Germany,Japan……and the whole EU as the only source of capital export.Vancouver is too small to resist Chinese capital inflow.If the city cooperates with China then our motherland will reward this city with peace and wealth in the future. Remeber never resist a rolling train with a bear hand or u will be crushed.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 5:58 pm 266
@mac:
Just for the record, I don’t think your argument is racist. It’s just wrong. It’s bad math, not bad morals.
But as you say, there is no need to argue because we are going to see what was going on very shortly. As they say, when the tide goes out, we will see who was swimming naked. We will also see if the areas popular with recent wealthy Chinese immigrants stand up better than other areas. So far, they don’t seem to be doing well. In fact the area that is doing the best is East Van, which is one of the least popular with recent wealthy Chinese immigrants. But these are early days. We will see what we see, and then the argument will be over.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 6:04 pm 267
“Is it a good time to buy real estate?”
“in Regina it is”…… Says the Regina real estate agent
http://www.leaderpost.com/business/Expert+Your+Home+Real+Estate/6813604/story.html
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 6:16 pm 268
@mac:
“It may even depress the market in the short term, thus attracting more feign investors in the longer run. Talk about unintended consequences.”
The intended consequence is to reduce the growth of consumer debt and both falling prices and fewer domestic buyers accomplish this.
I don’t know what this guy thinks the intended consequence is, but obviously he hasn’t heard anything Carney has been saying for the last year, not to mention Flaherty’s own publicly stated reasons for the changes.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 7:30 pm 269
268 patriotz Says: “I don’t know what this guy thinks…..”
It’s the old realtor argument that falling prices will attract investors. Oddly, so do rising prices, causing Vancouver to ascend on a tautology.
Quibble: as it was regarding policy on the way up, the last place to look for true intention today is Carney’s or Flaherty’s words. They’re not ‘doing something’, they’ve stopped doing what they started in 2006.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 7:41 pm 270
We’ll see 20%+ year-over-year declines by late Fall.
Specuvestors will SHIT THEIR PANTs.
Bubbles all end the same way in the end – in tears.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 7:50 pm 271
It’s now safe to assume that China is lying about everything. Absolutely everything.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/23/business/global/chinese-data-said-to-be-manipulated-understating-its-slowdown.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp
Go short coal, copper, and anything to do with China or Vancouver.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 8:01 pm 272
@Anonymous: …..Every incremental drop on Van RE will attract our wealthy Compatriots flocking to Van in a bonaza buying spree;…..
Ya, cause one thing we all know: wealthy compatriots love to buy assets just as they’re declining from an obvious peak. I mean, why wait for prices to fall when you can jump in and take part in the decline.
On other fronts: scientist confirm the moon is not made of cheese. Rather, it’s apparently made of a rare version of tofu.
And, frogs with four legs amputated apparently become deaf as they fail to respond to commands to ‘jump’.
More science news at eleven.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 8:07 pm 273
@mac
You have missed the whole piece. It is all about mortgage credit. There are no Chinese in the Okanagan, Nanaimo, Abbotsford. Story is the same. For a few zip codes with real Rembrandt quality uniqueness, yes some Chinese have participated in the high prices created by excess mortgage credit. But that’s it. It’s great to have code-word complaints about people who look a little different…lots of Vancouver old-timers never have felt comfortable with the large Asian presence in this town. Get used to it.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 8:07 pm 274
@Romeo Jordan: Romeo, please be nice
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 8:14 pm 275
@Best place on meth:
I posted that yesterday.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 8:25 pm 276
@Anonymous:
Do you think cab drivers and 7-11 worker immigrants are buying properties?” The answer is yes. I think they do.
And where are they getting the money?
What do you mean, where are they getting the money? From the bank of course! Guaranteed by our Canadian government!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 8:38 pm 277
China moves to lift property market in today’s Financial Times:
http://tinyurl.com/77ppljm
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 8:46 pm 278
Sunday evening humour, as seen on Garth’s comment section:
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 8:51 pm 279
@pricedoutfornow: “What do you mean, where are they getting the money? From the bank of course! Guaranteed by our Canadian government!”
That was my point. However, mac’s tinfoil hat is telling him the money is coming from China.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 8:53 pm 280
Hi,
I’ve been an avid lurker on this site since 2008. There’s been a recent development within my family that is causing me a lot of distress so I was hoping the folks here may shed some light on the situation. I wanted to forward any related comments on the situation to my parents to convince them to not go through with their decision.
My parents are 62. My father takes in 40K after tax as he gets disability payments for the rest of his life and my mom does not work. They also take in 11K a year from renting out the basement of their Vancouver special which they bought in 1989 for 179K. On Friday, they told me they bought a 800K+ house in Burnaby using a 300K downpayment from a condo they sold in 2010. I don’t think the deal is final as they are getting a house inspector to look at the place on Monday. However, they claim they were preapproved for a 25 year mortgage. They plan to rent out the top suite to my brother, sister-in-law and their newboard for $1200 a month, and they also will rent out the basement suite.
To me, getting a 500K+ 25yr mortgage at age 62 with 51K income is just completely ridiculous and crazy, especially with the recent developments and current malaise of the market. They always spout the same nonsense about how house prices can’t go down, running out of land, house prices being propped up by mainland Chinese & drugs, Canadian banks more prudent than Americans.
So my question is how could they have been pre-approved for this mortgage 10x their income at age 62? It just seems impossible to me. Am I missing something or is there some loophole where a financial institution would actually lend this couple this much money? I am desperately trying to convince them not do this but this ‘can’t lose’ Vancouver real estate mentality is just too hard to break.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 9:07 pm 281
Yup me too… i sign up for the occasional presale development in Vancouver, lately i have have been getting emails on the ones that are complete and have been issued occupancy permits from the developer stating they have released a limited number of previously unavailable units for sale. Sold out my ass
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 9:21 pm 282
tektite Says: “To me, getting a 500K+ 25yr mortgage at age 62 with 51K income’
hey mac,
multiply this case times 100 of thousands and here you have your bubble.
No cab driver’s Riksha relative in Calcuta financing involved; it is good ol’d prudent Canadian Banks.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 9:23 pm 283
@tektite:
You’ll have to kill them, in their sleep, with an ax, it’s that simple.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 9:28 pm 284
chilled: “You’ll have to kill them, in their sleep, with an ax, it’s that simple.”
do it before home inspection
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 9:32 pm 285
@sbermunk:
Yes, it is a cracking deal, isn’t it? I looked at comps in the area before renting and they are the same ballpark or a bit more per sq ft. It is easy walking distance to the largest mall that there ever was.
I think that rents are distressed in this market segment, because who the hell is left to rent to when 70% of people are already money renters who take care of collateral boxes for their bankster overlords?
But – and I’m sorry about this – If I am wrong and it really is below market rent, and I reveal the name of the company, and we sit here praising how low they charge per sq ft – I might be facing an unexpectedly huge rental increase in a year’s time, might I not?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 9:39 pm 286
LOL so much arguments……. I think we should all just quit these arguments and come back a year later and see the data. That saves everyone’s time.
most ppl believe the market will be down (I believe so too).. but before the time and data kick in…. nothing is for sure.. we shall see
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 9:48 pm 287
@Anonymous: most ppl believe the market will be down
most yes, but not all…
Sunday night humour #2. Here is a comment from Larry’s latest post Flaherty’s Folly Kills Rosy Vancouver Home Buying Dreams
Can you smell the fear?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 9:50 pm 288
@Makaya: to which West Side Realtor replied:
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 9:53 pm 289
@N: Thanks. I really hope with every fibre in my body that you are right and I am wrong.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 9:54 pm 290
@Best place on meth: Doesn’t that include the TSX in general?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 10:15 pm 291
@Makaya: Funny stuff, welcome to serfdom! Someone should let these guys know economics is about scarce resources, yet the supply of capital is, according to their train of logic seemingly endless. I’ve read of more critical thought in first world war battle tactics at the Somme.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 10:19 pm 292
@HAM Solo: I have no idea what yer on about.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 10:29 pm 293
Day. A Highway Rest Stop.
Dave kicked out the stand on his Harley and leaned back on the seat. His belly glistened with sweat in the mid-day sun from the hard ride down the California coast. This rest area was his kind of place, smelling of redwood and hot oil.
The rider to his left stroked his handlebar moustache and grinned as he took in the BC plates on Daves Harley. “You too eh?” the man said pointing to his own BC tags.
“yeah” Dave replied “Best place on earth but sometimes you just got to get away.”
“I hear you on that one” the other rider said extending his hand. “The names Cam, I’m in sales, what do you do?”
Dave unbuckled his helmet “I’m in development.”
Cam raised an eyebrow. “development eh, what kind?”
Dave reached into his saddlebag and pulled out two tall-boys and tossed one to Cam. “Homes, townhomes, condos.. I erect them all.”
“I’ll bet you do” Cam said as he cracked open his beer and took a big swig.
…to be continued
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 10:32 pm 294
@tektite:
It sounds like your parents have their minds made up. Basically they are spending your inheritance so it is in your best interest to not have the deal go through. As far as the mortgage goes the banks will finance this based on the 300K down payment.
Your best bet to get the deal to fall through would be to have the home inspection come back with problems. Show up to the home inspection yourself and go through the place with the home inspector. Look for things wrong with the house. Make sure the home inspector notes them in the report. Then convince your parents the house has too many problems that will cost a lot of money to fix. It likely does have lots of problems but you have to look for them. If you know a contractor bring him to go through the house to look for problems. Hopefully the home inspector was not referred by the realtor otherwise you will have a tough time getting him to note the real problems. They will try to cover up what ever they can to keep the realtor happy. Good luck with it.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 10:37 pm 295
@dire straits: What part of Canadians are punch drunk on debt did you not understand. I get it that banks dole out craploads of money. But look! They’re putting more than 20% down. They also take up only a 1/3 of the house. They have relatives upstairs that they can hit up for more should their mortgage get out of hand.
I personally wouldn’t make this bet but maybe they want to leave a house to their kids. One that’s divided into 2 or 3 units. Maybe that’ll make them happy when they die. Dunno. I don’t know these people.
Having said that, if Tektite wants to try to scare the bejesus out of them, may I suggest he gets them to read Garth’s blog. If that doesn’t work, nothing will. But it sounds like they have lots of equity and prefer to own real estate. They have a) A Vancouver Special b) A hefty down payment of 300K from a previous sale (presumably taxes have been paid) c) They have family upstairs kicking in a possibly subsidized mortgage so they might get more if they left D) Renters downstairs kicking in another possible $800/month… that means most of their mortgage (even at a higher rate than today) is covered.
If they take a loss of 20%-30% over 10 years and it creeps back up to break-even over another 10 and then they leave it to the kids, who cares? It’s not worth panicking over. That’s probably why the bank lent it to them. They’ve got equity but not much income.
Although I am curious which credit union or bank did it, Tektie?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 10:50 pm 296
@fixie guy: “Likewise the attempt to correlate Vancouver price increases solely to population factors. “
Agreed; my thesis, FWIW, is that recent (this year’s) malaise in sales can be plausibly, for the most part though by no means exclusively, attributed to a drop-off in population growth last year. That does not mean that previous population growth justified high prices, only that a marked slowdown in dwelling formation must lead to slower sales. This was what happened about 14 years ago when population growth fell off a cliff in 1998 and it took several years before sales began to grow again.
Net migration fell from about 60K/year in 2007-09 to 33K last year. That means about 10K fewer new dwellings required.
A drop in population growth is the catalyst for lower prices — wrought through higher MOI — but doubtful the root cause.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 11:25 pm 297
@VMD:
re: polygon’s “MODA” presale in Burnaby that opened Saturday, with some people camping since Monday.
1st day sales:138
total units: 249
ratio: 55%
Additional details:
1. The first 150 units are offered 2% VIP discount. I guess they over-estimated the amount of VIPs…
2. Anecdotal info from a realtor: some buyers who “got” the units are still hesitant and are considering opting out in the opt-out period.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 11:39 pm 298
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 24th, 2012 at 11:42 pm 299
Someone has been busy spam-faxing the following letter to Greater Vancouver households lately (posted in Chinese RE forum):
http://s8.postimage.org/sn9o3b4h1/housing_crash_fax.jpg
methinks the communication medium is a little outdated.. a billboard might work better?
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 25th, 2012 at 12:00 am 300
Just curious if anyone checked out the open houses over the weekend, and wondering if there was a rush to buy in Vancouver before July 9.
Vancouver was toast before the new regulations, I wonder if there were people crazy enough to rush in now.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 25th, 2012 at 1:23 am 301
@mac:
I am with you on the rents cover mortgage cost.
But what if 20-30% loss over the 10 years, and higher interest rates too. They might need to pay more for monthly mortgage.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 25th, 2012 at 5:46 am 302
292 mac Says: “@HAM Solo: I have no idea what yer on about.”
White Knighting: associating any discussion of immigration policy with racism. Hence ‘code words’. The bigotry behind that position of course are beyond Solo’s grasp, as is the high probability those accused might just be immigrants or first born offspring.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 25th, 2012 at 6:02 am 303
96 jesse Says: “…recent (this year’s) malaise in sales can be plausibly, for the most part though by no means exclusively, attributed to a drop-off in population growth last year.”
It’s hard to argue against the notion fewer buyers mean less demand.
I agree completely on both points, population rate of change impacts housing prices and it’s only one (temporary) component. The latter is why I maintain it’s also one of the components of government policy targeting market stimulus.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 25th, 2012 at 11:40 am 304
@s:
North Van (Pemberton Heights) was dead…
Cookie Baking/Baloon inflating was in overdrive though…
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 26th, 2012 at 12:12 am 305
@metrix:
I have only ever said “immigrants”, and stressed that I don’t care where they’re from. It looks like your the racist if you’re assuming I’m referring to “chines” or whatever idiotic other term you want to conjure up.
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
June 26th, 2012 at 12:27 am 306
@oneangryslav2:
Really, a market dominated by million-dollar homes in Whitehorse? Puleez!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
July 5th, 2012 at 10:27 pm 307
Nice blog here! Also your website loads up fast!
What host are you using? Can I get your affiliate link to
your host? I wish my website loaded up as quickly as yours lol
Like or Dislike:
0 
0
July 11th, 2012 at 2:11 pm 308
Spot on with this write-up, I truly think this site needs a lot more
attention. I’ll probably be returning to read through more, thanks for the advice!
Like or Dislike:
0 
0