economy, opinion, predictions

Interesting Articles – Could Get Very Ugly

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106 Comments

A couple of very interesting articles:

Pimco and JP Morgan halt vacations to prepare for crash?

When one company decides to cancel vacations, or impose additional workloads on their employees due to projected events, it is not considered relative news. However, when several institutions, analysts, and even the head of the World Bank acknowledge a coming crisis, then everyone needs to come to the realization that something big is on the horizon that will have an effect on both Wall Street and Main Street.

21 signs this could be a long hot crazy summer for the global economy

The summer of 2012 is shaping up to be very similar to the summer of 2008. Things look incredibly bleak for the global economy right now. Economic activity and lending are slowing down all over the planet, and fear is starting to paralyze the entire global financial system. Things did not look this bad back in the summer of 2011 and things certainly did not look this bad back in the summer of 2010.

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Anonymous
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@patriotz: ….and per capita Canada is massively ahead of the US and is the highest in the world (except perhaps Oz)…..

What sort of retard would immigrate to Canada when they could have immigrated to Oz?

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7 years 8 months ago
b5baxter
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@Anonymous:
“….hat the last 15 years show no warming….”

Nothing could be further from the truth. Here are some facts:
– Depending upon the records used 2005 was either the hottest or second hottest year on record.
– 2010 tied with 2005.
– The hottest 12-month period ever recorded was from June 2009 to May 2010.
– The last decade, 2002-2011, was the hottest on record.
– Nine of the ten hottest years on record have been since 2000.
– 2011 was the hottest La Nina year on record.

Claiming that it has not been warming the last 15 years is like claiming that real estate in Vancouver has gone up 25% this year.

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7 years 8 months ago
patriotz
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@fixie guy:
There is more legal immigration today into Canada than to any other country except the US in absolute terms, and per capita Canada is massively ahead of the US and is the highest in the world (except perhaps Oz).

Speaking of the US, its poor social services have never stopped it from being a draw for both legal and illegal immigration.

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7 years 8 months ago
registered
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46 patriotz Says: “Where else are they going to go?”

I’m less confident than you that stripped of social services, with little opportunity for growth and crushing debt Canada will remain the BPoE for immigration. Statistics show it isn’t today.

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7 years 8 months ago
patriotz
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@Bilbo Bloggins:
“if you look at the amount of money that has poured out of equities and into bonds since 2009, the stock market is already out of favour in the eyes of today’s investors.”

The stock market in Canada is much higher today than the bottom in early 2009 and only a bit under the top in late 2009. In the US it’s higher today that at any point in 2009.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/chart/?q=VTI-N

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7 years 8 months ago
patriotz
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@Makaya:
“This fancy loan was indexed on the Swiss Franc. Within two years, the loan went from 170,000 euros to 636,000 euros”

Whatever it was, it wasn’t simply a loan indexed on the Swiss Franc, because the latter is de facto pegged to the Euro, as the Swiss government has been making very clear.

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7 years 8 months ago
Bilbo Bloggins
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@Anonymous:
Notice Mercer indicates “including rental accomodation costs”.
What? Renting is cheaper than owning. Haven’t we known this for a number of years now?
Our yields are craptastic!

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7 years 8 months ago
Bilbo Bloggins
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While there’s still the risk of more deflation and a flash crash, if you look at the amount of money that has poured out of equities and into bonds since 2009, the stock market is already out of favour in the eyes of today’s investors.
If you ask me, the real bubble right now is in bonds and treasuries. Everyone’s scared s***less and are hiding under the sheets.

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7 years 8 months ago
Alan
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@Anonymous:
“Vancouver comes 63rd in 2012 ‘expensive cities’ list:”

That’s totally make sense! If you read how they do the survey: “The survey takes account of small items of spending, such as a hamburger or a cinema ticket, but is dominated by the cost of renting a luxury two-bedroom apartment of the type favoured by expats.”

I wonder what our ranking would be like with 30 years mortgage on a typical 850k’s Vancouver East home.

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7 years 8 months ago
Anonymous
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@YLTNboomerang: …When your real estate is not doing anything, copy a village in Austria??. …

Well, it worked for Whistler (for a while :))

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7 years 8 months ago
Anonymous
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Vancouver comes 63rd in 2012 ‘expensive cities’ list:

http://www.mercer.com/costoflivingpr#City_rankings

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7 years 8 months ago
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@Realist:

“…immigrant parents that are unable to communicate in the official language, requiring a host of additional services and challenges for staff…”

A host, huh? Other than interpretation and translation, what additional services does failing to speak “the official language” (there are actually two, by the way) necessitate?

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7 years 8 months ago
market stats
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@mac Irish emigration Have you noticed the Irish accents around town increasing? I think there must be an affinity for property speculation. Ireland attracted a lot of capital in the years leading up to 08 with low corporate tax rates, employment and incomes inflated commensurately. Unfortunately, they levered up those income streams to insane levels and when the bubble popped the government assumed the bank debt. So whilst the economy in theory could have remained ok with reasonably solvent foreign employers servicing Euro clients, the insane level of debt and subsequent forced austerity due to the Euro has only created a downward spiral and flight of labour and capital. Ultimately the main test for the vancouver RE market for the balance of the year will be the Eurozone. If there is a disorderly breakup of the Euro chaos is likely… Read more »
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7 years 8 months ago
YLTNboomerang
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Wow, no skimming SOE’s in China…to build Austrian villages!

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/05/china-unveils-knockoff-version-of-an-entire-austrian-village/

When your real estate is not doing anything, copy a village in Austria??.

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7 years 8 months ago
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@Makaya: Either they are pulling back, or they are screaming in case Flaherty ratchets the rack another notch.

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7 years 8 months ago
Realist
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‘free heathcare’ It isn’t free! We all pay for it with MSP premiums and taxes including the immigrants. And the immigrants I see are working their a$$-es off doing jobs we wont do. Like the East Indians who are doing back-braking work on the farms so we don’t just have to depend on US produce, and the Phillippinos who are feeding and cleaning your grandmother in the nursing home and the Chinese that just got killed or brain-damaged on the mushroom farm. Meanwhile an older friend of mine, many generation Canuck who moved to the US over twenty-five years ago to pay less taxes, has just moved back to have his MS treated here. better not to make too many assumptions about who is using our healthcare system the most, you may be very wrong. _________________________________________ While I appreciate your… Read more »
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7 years 8 months ago
Anonymous
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@Makaya: Sorry about this long link but this is the root article. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/toronto-vancouver-house-prices-to-sink-15-over-2-3-years-td-warns/article4246895/

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7 years 8 months ago
Makaya
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An euphemism to say the bubble is starting to pop: Signs of sanity in Toronto’s condo craze Ottawa’s efforts to cool off Toronto’s red-hot condominium market appear to be having an impact, as prices begin to ease and developers pull back on projects and bidding for land. (…) So far, the evidence of a slowdown is primarily anecdotal, not statistical. But some economists are hopeful that the signs are pointing to a modest, and relatively painless, correction in condo prices [I think they’re joking, but I’m not sure…] (…) “People are really scared right now,” said real estate agent and author Brian Persaud. “When Flaherty says the condo market is overheated, you get people who have bought [units] walking away within the 10 day cooling off period.” A number of condo projects that have recently hit the market have had… Read more »
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7 years 8 months ago
Moe Szyslak
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Re: 3243 33 ave VANCOUVER BC

WTF? Who advertises a $2.3M house on Craigslist of all places!? Are people with a $2M budget looking on Craigslist for homes!? This realturd clearly does not understand targeted marketing.

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7 years 8 months ago
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@/dev/null:

Geynne Dyer highly regarded? Oh please.

His last article was on global warming where he states the world will warm. Y 3 degrees by 2100. Yet quick google shows rate in last century was .67 degree, the same rate since the last ice age, and that the last 15 years show no warming. So, 3 degrees from now?

Maybe you have to be highly regarded to figure it out.

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7 years 8 months ago
/dev/null
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@frank: Gwynne Dyer is a great author and has an interesting outlook on the world. I’d recommend his book War (the updated version if you can get it).

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7 years 8 months ago
Chem guy
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@McLovin: Ha, check out the guy pushing the program

http://ca.linkedin.com/in/rmsutherland?_mSplash=1

Guess he’s putting those two years at community college to work!

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7 years 8 months ago
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@Anonymous:

It demonstrates China power extended as far as Toronto and can’t be ignored.So Vancouver has been blessed such Chinese since 2000 and such blessing will last as long as China prevails.

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7 years 8 months ago
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http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/canadian-housing-prices-canada-housing-real-estate-bubblereach-apex-set-for-deep-fall-foreign-money-speculation-housing-debt/

Not sure if this is already posted but good article

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7 years 8 months ago
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@Anonymous:

More than 1/4 of the year is good in Whistler. I’d say about 3/4. There’s more than just skiing up there.

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7 years 8 months ago