Vancouver Real Estate: listings up, sales down

Over at the CBC there’s an article about the ‘uncertain fate’ of Vancouver real estate.

Vancouver’s real estate market has taken another interesting turn, with listings up and sales down during what is usually a busy time of year.

In May, average prices for houses have dropped about $150,000 compared to one year ago. That 12-per-cent drop wiped out two years of price increases.

The reason appears to be that too many more sellers are trying to cash in at the same time. Listings are up by 23 per cent, but fewer are buying: sales are down 24 per cent.

“Probably, on average, about a 150 or 160 homes in Vancouver are reducing their price every day in the hope of catching, getting ahead of the train and maybe get out before they can’t,” said realtor Larry Yatkowsy.

Larry is an interesting fellow, he seems to change opinions frequently, but isn’t it in most realtors interest to get sellers to lower listing prices to make a sale?

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Vancouver mortgage broker
Guest

I really like the way you shared this great info with us, I am looking forward for more updates from you soon.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

@jumpin in: “Venus transit
zombie invasion:”

Don’t forget: Cam Good constipated.

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow

@McLovin:

I would consider buying a Whistler condo if it were $99k. Seems like a good price to pay. You’ve gotta watch strata fees though, they can be quite high. I would wonder though, how many nights you could stay in a hotel for the cost of owning. Calculate it out, it might not be worth it.

Chabar
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Chabar

@Makaya:

I’m more and more convinced that the HAM wave in Vancouver is over and gone.

I hope so too, the city is already full of shit and polluted enough.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
@jesse: Jesse, check this article from Market Watch published today: China’s easy-growth era drawing to close HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China will have a hard time living up to its growth targets this year, according to analysts who say a reality check could be forthcoming for policy makers seen as able to fine-tune the economy at will. (…) Credit Suisse said Monday it believes China is now entering a structural downturn, pointing to important changes in the housing market and a currency that no longer appears undervalued, as among six factors that appear “less promising” for China’s growth outlook. (…) Likewise, the large proportion of investment as a share of China’s economy — previously seen as catalyst that helped to spur activity — looks problematic in an industrial landscape glutted with excess capacity, they said. (…) China’s policy makers, they… Read more »
mac
Member
mac

@McLovin: McLovin: ¥ou’ve gotta good sense of humour, dude! Even obliquely referencing RJ means you have a strong stomach!

jumpin in
Guest
jumpin in

I completely agree that people who bought recently will never admit they made a bad decision or they defended crazy theories. For example, I had a friend explaining to me 2 years ago that Vancouver is becoming a HAM resort and the white (who do not own) will become their servants !?!?! therefore his home price would go up forever.

Let’s make a list of Ponzi deniers’ excuses. So far, we heard:
flood plain in Richmond
bear talks in VW
HAM evaporation in Burnaby
Mayan Calendar (for PoCo?)

Coming soon:
Too much rain (climate change exodus)
Venus transit
zombie invasion:
http://www.longislandpress.com/2012/05/30/should-we-take-zombie-apocalypse-threats-seriously/

/dev/null
Member
/dev/null

@jojomalone: Somerville said he can’t pinpoint a specific reason for the sales slowdown, but that factors could include a lack of faith in the economy, a slowdown in offshore investment or buyers refusing to pay high prices.

Ah?! Ah?! He said it. See Tsur, it’s not that hard. Say it again. It gets easier.

VanDweller
Member
VanDweller
Copied from PaulB’s number. Thank you PaulB. http://www.laurenandpaul.ca http://tinyurl.com/paulsfacebookpage Using good-format’s format. Date List Price+- Sold Xpired Inv+- Inv S/L(%) 12.05.31 258 160 64 196 -2 18881 25 12.06.01 288 130 147 447 -306 18575 51 12.06.04 340 219 87 145 108 18683 26 12.06.05 309 173 86 82 141 18824 28 Total-Cur 937 522 320 674 -57 June-Avg 312 174 107 225 -19 35 List Price+- Sold Xpired Inv+- Inv S/L(%)
condo watcher
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condo watcher

McLovin Says:
June 5th, 2012 at 7:59 pm

My stockbroker just told me Australia blew away it’s Q1 expectations, based on strength of raw material imports to China!

—the figure for their GDP for the 1st quarter was 1.3%–this was higher than expected but really says it all for our global economy when a figure of 1.3% is considered a good number–they have also cut their interest rate for the second time in a month (.5% a month ago and now .25%)4.25%-to 3.5%

Anonymous
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Anonymous

@Keeping An Eye On The Pimps: What a jackass…nothing would please me more than to see him go bankrupt, then get fired for incompetence after a 50% Van RE haircut

UnagiDon
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UnagiDon

@Simple: I appreciate your joke, but I hope you realize that Tsur is a Hebrew name, Tsur Somerville is Israeli, and that Jews do not celebrate Christmas.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

I was just thinking how lucky I am to have so many great friends…and almost none of them own even though they’re mostly all very successful. They’re finally starting to appreciate my years of warnings and shoving metrics down their throats.

Simple
Guest
Simple

Man, I would hate to be Tsur’s kid.

“Now Jimmy. I know it is Christmas eve and I know that you have been good. But to hope that Santa is coming… Well, it’s a bit hopeful…”

Vulture Fun
Guest
Vulture Fun
@tiesto: @Vulture Fun , @chip well FYI another fund manager Kyle Bass who is shorting Japan is down on his fund 29% just in April. Both of them could very well be bankrupt before things start to unwind. So NO, formed opinion, is not the only thing that is relevant —- Bass is losing money on his bet, but so what? It’s hard to time these things. He has a compelling argument for his position. How about you? Off the top of my head: 1. Horrific demographics 2. Yes, JPN bonds are held by their own population, but they’ll be cashing them in shortly because they’re old, broke, and need to eat. 3. 99% of nuclear reactors are still off-line due to safety concerns and public opposition. This means factory disruptions, rolling blackouts, and a greater dependence on foreign energy… Read more »
Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
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Keeping An Eye On The Pimps

Did anyone catch Tsur on NW98Realty Radio today?

It will be just a slight cooling.
Everything will be ok, he is an impartial academic.

The rich immigrants, the shortage of land etc etc will keep the cooling to a minimum, before the next leg up.

I hope he is invested to his eyeballs in Van RE.

Balda
Member
Balda

another one bites the dust:

http://www.rt.com/news/mmm-mavrodi-ponzi-scheme-715/

greed and stupidity together again, the final is always the same.

wreckonomics2
Guest
wreckonomics2

@Stupid Landlords: Can anyone point me to monthly data for that range? What would be the stat to overlay? Sales to list ratio? I don’t know if it will actually correlate to anything, it might be too noisy since it would include spammers which have no connection to the local market.

http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/general-chatter/forum/topic/vci-comment-signal-to-noise-ratio-graph/

Stupid Landlords
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Stupid Landlords

@ wreckonomics2

Can we see that on top of the sales graph for the last couple of years?

looks like it would would match up beautifully (in an inverted kind of way).

Love it. Damn Realtrolls.

McLovin
Guest
McLovin

My stockbroker just told me Australia blew away it’s Q1 expectations, based on strength of raw material imports to China!

And apparently China is opening up its stock market further, looks like they might juice things.

And gold is rising.

What does this mean, am I charging enough for my Saturday night specials? I’ve been cutting the Aussie’s a break lately, buy one get one free.

McLovin
Guest
McLovin

#75 “I’m going to enjoy their pain. Immensely”

I must agree with you. I am taking a strange enjoyment in watching the show. I have been ridiculed for holding up stats and logic like price to rent and price vs income. People are getting what they deserve.

People don’t really want to talk about the market anymore. The funny thing is like my previous post, people aren’t telling me I’m right, they are getting mad. Its as though me telling them not to buy somehow contributed to them buying. I have become the target of their fury.

Luckily I have made a suit of new burn proof $100 bills with all the money I have saved as dirt bag renter paying 30% of the cost of ownership of my place.

ReadyToPop
Guest
ReadyToPop
xyz
Guest
xyz

Oops.. my brilliant ex-landlord that traded in his 1970’s VanSpecial + 500K for a 2012 VanSpecial just lost $156K

And the kicker is he isn’t moving till the end of July…

No renters, we left 5 days after we got our 2 month notice, and the sardine can basement apartments (totally illegal) in his new place will be empty, to a glut of vacancies.

Did I mention there’s a 2nd baby on the way?

I almost feel sorry for the guy…

VMD
Member

I have revived the “2012 VCI Price Prediction Contest” thread, the original was lost with the previous server reset.

http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/general-chatter/forum/topic/2012-vci-price-prediction-contest-1/

Preliminary Round #1 results based on May 2012 data:
Currently Jesse in the lead, for both HPI-based and Median-based categories.
If we’re just looking at Average price however (-6.34% since Jan 2012), “604x” is closest at -7.52%, while ZRH2YVR is second closest at -4.7%

Can’t wait until end of month stats arrive ; )

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@McLovin:

“he added that the only thing that would bring Vancouver RE down more than 20% was a world wide financial melt down.”

I’m seeing a lot of this behavior from the bubble deniers lately, they already have a scapegoat in place to blame for when real estate goes tits up – ranging from some external event like a financial crisis or Europe blowing up to absolutely comical reasons like the clown who wrote the article blaming us bears in advance should real estate crash.

None of them will ever admit that prices could collapse simply because they got way too high.

I’m going to enjoy their pain. Immensely.