Vancouver Real Estate: listings up, sales down

Over at the CBC there’s an article about the ‘uncertain fate’ of Vancouver real estate.

Vancouver’s real estate market has taken another interesting turn, with listings up and sales down during what is usually a busy time of year.

In May, average prices for houses have dropped about $150,000 compared to one year ago. That 12-per-cent drop wiped out two years of price increases.

The reason appears to be that too many more sellers are trying to cash in at the same time. Listings are up by 23 per cent, but fewer are buying: sales are down 24 per cent.

“Probably, on average, about a 150 or 160 homes in Vancouver are reducing their price every day in the hope of catching, getting ahead of the train and maybe get out before they can’t,” said realtor Larry Yatkowsy.

Larry is an interesting fellow, he seems to change opinions frequently, but isn’t it in most realtors interest to get sellers to lower listing prices to make a sale?

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
VMD
Member

SFH Disaster zones:

1。Van West
Sales YoY -47%
Lists YoY +36%
Ratio = 27% vs 67%

2。West Van
Sales YoY -59%
Lists YoY -23%
Ratio = 34% vs 63%

3。Burnaby
Sales YoY -38%
Lists YoY +23%
Ratio = 37% vs 74%

4。Van East
Sales YoY -28%
Lists YoY +26%
Ratio = 45% vs 79%

5。Coquitlam
Sales YoY -21%
Lists YoY +21%
Ratio = 46% vs 70%

6。Richmond
Sales YoY -20%
Lists YoY +11%
Ratio = 26% vs 39%

*Richmond was the first to slow down last spring, so its #’s were pretty bad last May. This May is worse.
(late post yesterday)

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
specialfx3000
Member
specialfx3000

Investors in the BC interior are underwater in more than one way.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/06/05/bc-flooding-advisory.html

Yah
Guest
Yah

Anyone figured out why and in what way the rebgv keeps ‘recalculating’ the HPI ?
This used to look like a useful index but lately it seems to have no connection with reality.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Yah: They are trying to tweak their formulas to get it to be a legitimate index with country-wide comparisons. Vancouver is a unique market so their methods are likely improperly tuned to other locales. Now with other cities starting to participate there are errors that are brought to the surface. That’s my read. No conspiracy, but their method is inferior to the Teranet HPI IMO.

silverfish city
Guest
silverfish city

I was just looking at MLS# V947267 in Squamish and I had to laugh at the description of it as a “commuter’s dream” with its “gorgeous 30 minute commute to Vancouver”. WTF? You would have to break every traffic law known to even make it to the Lions Gate that quickly. Back in reality, thirty minutes from deepest Valleycliffe puts you just past Porteau Cove.

I mean, why lie like that? It’s just so transparently dumb.

taylor192
Member

Larry is still a realturd and thinks they offer some value to the market. Hopefully one day we won’t need guys like him to post blogs with market analysis and we’ll just have access to the numbers like in other countries.

mattymatt123
Guest

@silverfish city: Ya, what a joke! Gotta do what you can when nothing is moving.

registered
Member
registered

5 Anonymous Says: “Vancouver is a unique market so their methods are likely improperly tuned to other locales….. No conspiracy…”

Principles don’t change west of Boundary, mathematical models applicable to Trois-Rivières are also valid in Vancouver. Constant revisions naturally raise questions about their competency or motives without the need of conspiracy theories, especially when the Case Shiller and Teranet indexes already exist.

jesse
Member

@fixie guy: ” Constant revisions naturally raise questions about their competency or motives’

It also raises questions about the method itself, at least when comparing historical data. Same-sales-pairs won the day in the US for a reason, the board just wanted something more timely.

I have stopped using the benchmark for much because of the revisions. The historical benchmark generally followed the Teranet HPI but there was some noted separation in the past few years that raised my eyebrows.

Bailing in BC
Guest
Bailing in BC

@silverfish city:

The answer to your question, based on the person who wrote the description, is habit.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
Some news from the Mother of All bubble: Beijing Alone Has 50% More Vacant Housing Than The US Putting some housing things into perspective. From the (less than credible) NAR: Total housing inventory at the end of April rose 9.5 percent to 2.54 million existing homes available for sale, a seasonal increase which represents a 6.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 6.2-month supply in March. Listed inventory is 20.6 percent below a year ago when there was a 9.1-month supply; the record for unsold inventory was 4.04 million in July 2007. Meanwhile, half a world away, from a just released report in Beijing News (google translated): The Beijing Public Security Bureau Population Administration Department said yesterday that have checked the information of the mobile population 725.5 million, mark the rental housing 1.39 million, checking vacant houses… Read more »
jesse
Member

@Makaya: “I’m not sure we’ll ever see HAM coming back”

Interesting that the slowdown in China has been getting significant press, it seems things have not been strong for several months now. There is likely going to be another round of Chinese government stimulus focused on infrastructure investment.

It could be the recent weakness in parts of Vancouver is tightly tied to slowing Chinese GDP growth. If another round of stimulus jacks up GDP growth for another 1-2 years, there’s a possibility “HAM” will return. China’s investment boom is not necessarily at its end. Just trying to be realistic about it.

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@jesse: I’ve read somewhere that the major problem faced by the Chinese authority regarding the future stimulus package is to find where to spend the money. They have already invested in a lot of inefficient infrastructure projects that will haunt them for years to come (re: high speed train).

Not sure they’ll be able to prop up their GDP with this strategy this time. They’re already over capacity.

patriotz
Member

@Makaya:
“I’ve read somewhere that the major problem faced by the Chinese authority regarding the future stimulus package is to find where to spend the money.”

Where to spend the money is obvious and has already been pointed out by many commentators – put it in the hands of the Chinese consumer. That is the only way that the imbalances in the Chinese economy can be levelled out.

The problem is that the existing economic and political order in China is built on shovelling capital into state-sponsored infrastructure and RE projects that are becoming more and more redundant given that consumer incomes are stagnant.

Something will have to give, the question is how and when.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

In the late 1900’s, the Hong Kongers came, drove RE up and left a few years later. In early 2000, it was the Taiwanese’s turn and they left shortly after that. Now its the mainland Chinese’s turn. This is why the MSA issued 9 million carecards for a population of 4.5! Wake up Canada, revoke the citizenship of convenience.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@silverfish city: Agree…you’re lucky to make it downtown from West Van in 30mins.

VHB
Member
VHB

Jun-2012
Total days 21
Days elapsed so far 2
Weekends / holidays 2
Days missing 0
Days remaining 19
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales 125
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings 285
SALES
Sales so far 234
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 2371
Projected month end total 2605
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 628
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 5419
Projected month end total 6047
Sell-list so far 37.3%
Projected month-end sell-list 43.1%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of June 4, 2012 18683
Current MoI at this sales pace 7.17

wreckonomics2
Guest
wreckonomics2

Any XLS wizards here? I have a spreadsheet with two columns: comment date and comment rating. I want a formula that will give me percentage of sub-zero rated comments per month. Interested to see if there’s any correlation between signal-to-noise in the comments here and listings/sales.

The column formats are date / time (ie: “11-01-18 21:32”) and rating (ie: “-12” or “6”)

Is there a simple formula to graph percentage of subzero comments per month?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@wreckonomics2:
You’re looking for the count and countif functions. It would be something like this:
=countif(A1:A10,”<0")/count(A1:A10)

Troll
Guest
Troll

@VHB: Good stats. Do you have the ten history of lists/sales to put June’s numbers in context?

Troll
Guest
Troll
Chipman’s bearish again, been a few years, although he talks as if this is what he’s said all along. http://www.robchipman.net/ The REBGV press release is out. Inventory is up, sales are down. All in all I think it’s a pretty positive spin on what is clearly a flat/declining price environment. As I’ve mentioned in the past, I don’t think we can characterize our local market as balanced just because price gains have ceased. Balance implies a modicum of longevity as well as a certain degree of satisfaction for both buyers and sellers. Our prices are so detached from fundamentals that we need (I think) both a strong economy and low interest rates to avoid stagnation. Stagnation may be long lasting, and for buy and hold investors there are certainly worse things, but for the average buyer and seller stagnation won’t… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Madashell:

The same thing happens when the US, Brits, Aussies, and Germans come here. Many of them have went back. And you’re point is?

MrV
Guest
MrV

@ Troll (#22)

haha, good catch! Somehow (per REBGV) we have increasing HPI in a “clearly flat/declining price environment”. Realtors’ skepticism towards the data produced by their own governing body is worthy of a note, REBGV should start coming out with more precise readings of the market if they want to avoid losing credibility

wreckonomics2
Guest
wreckonomics2

@Anonymous: Thanks! That looks like it does the trick.

wpDiscuz