‘very clear signs’ of market slowdown

Is the Vancouver real estate market cooked?

Sales are plummeting and the lower mainland is choking on inventory.

Tsur Somerville decided it’s time to sound the warning bell in the Vancouver Sun:

“We’re getting this consistently now,” said Tsur Somerville, director, centre for urban economics and real estate, Sauder School of Business at the University of B.C., after a monthly report by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver showed a continued rise in listings as sales drop.

“We’re in a market that’s much slower than what we’re used to and I think that will transfer into much more sluggish prices, at best.”

According to the board’s report, released Monday, May sales were the lowest total for the month since 2001 and 21.1-per-cent lower than the 10-year average for May sales. Local home sales in April were also the lowest total for that month since 2001.

…yeah, that’s right.  Lowest since 2001.  And the remarkable thing is that the word the real estate board has chosen to describe this market is ‘balanced’.

I guess it is very important to keep your balance while you’re sliding down hill.

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Anon
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Anon

Need to see some major foreclosure activity before the crazy mortgages can be “balanced”…

Ralph Cramdown
Guest
Ralph Cramdown

What’s a “sluggish price”?

patriotz
Member

And the remarkable thing is that the word the real estate board has chosen to describe this market is ‘balanced’

Free markets are always balanced. Anyone can always buy or sell at the market price.

That of course is not the meaning of the REspeak “balanced”, which is more like “it’s a great time to buy or sell”.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

Unless sales pick up “balanced” will be more like “dead”.

It cannot be overstated how weak 7 MOI in June is. Things do not get better from here.

Many Franks
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Many Franks
Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
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Keeping An Eye On The Pimps

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Real+estate+numbers+signal+slowdown+analyst/6731296/story.html

“Somerville said he can’t pinpoint a specific reason for the sales slowdown, but that factors could include a lack of faith in the economy, a slowdown in offshore investment or buyers refusing to pay high prices”

Yes, it’s so overwhelming trying to figure this out, so much so. that I think it’s best we call our local agent who is highly trained in these complex issues of economics.

But better still, we best get Cam to televise another helicopter trip around the Lower Mainland, but please this time take Levy and Bill Slut along

Alan
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Alan

http://news.vanpeople.com/?action-viewnews-itemid-194902

I am starting to see more and more price drop news on Vancouver’s Chinese blog.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

Isn’t Tsur Somerville someone many on this site love to hate? Seems like all along he was just doing his job, being a neutral market observer.

And he has been correct about the market year after year, unlike others who were wrong year after year.

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks

http://realestateagentsincars.tumblr.com/post/24540551730

Is your realtor light and fluffy, hard and crusty and prickly, or firm and crisp?

patriotz
Member

@Bull! Bull! Bull!:
“Seems like all along (Tsur) was just doing his job, being a neutral market observer.”

Somerville’s job (paid by the taxpayers) is a professor of business administration at UBC. As such he is supposed to pay attention to the established principles of economics and finance, not to be a “neutral market observer”.

You comment is like saying that a professor of medicine at UBC ought to take a neutral position as to whether HIV causes AIDS.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

I am one of those buyers who refuse to pay today’s prices.

I refuse to get a huge mortgage, waste hundreds of thousands on interest payments, and piss away what little equity in case of a market downturn.

Instead, I just rent and go on nice vacations now and then to get away from increasingly impatient, juvenile, and plastic real-estate town called Vancouver. The money I spent on trips would be peanuts compared to what I could potentially lose if I bought a house now.

In the worst case where there is no crash, I’ll be fine because I stopped being fixated on the idea that I HAVE TO stay in Vancouver. With enough research and efforts, I can always find professional opportunities elsewhere. I can think of many other “Best place on earth”.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Anonymous:
Is it real or u are bs? Do you have money for breafast?

mac
Member
mac
@patriotz: I think you’re being a bit hard on him. It matters not where his salary comes from he’s entitled to study the market and come to his own conclusions. Unless you are saying someone is paying him to come to these conclusions? Or that he is completely inept? Which I think you’d like to say but only because you disagree so strongly with him. I don’t have to tell you that being wrong is both part of economics forecasting and being in a bubble. He may be like every other economic forecaster in the US who could not see the bubble. If we’re in a bubble the mania would certainly spread even to academia in the form of a type of euphoria that a new model was being established. And we’re not out of it yet. With China lending,… Read more »
Turkey
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Turkey

@Many Franks: I would like a REALTOR® who is firm and confident, a REALTOR® who will work hard for me, and who understands the need, in modern times, for short-term relationships with multiple REALTORS®.

I would like a REALTOR® with a strong sense of purpose, and whose FeeFlex program puts me in the driver seat (since letting the REALTOR® drive will apparently involve turning in a big circle until the camera runs out of batteries.)

I would like a REALTOR® whose eyes look past me and into my soul, whose crisp suit masks a lithe, glistening body, whose muscular thighs w

patriotz
Member

@mac:
“He may be like every other economic forecaster in the US who could not see the bubble.”

I quite agree – wilfully blind.

There were plenty of academics and forecasters in the US who did see the bubble using simple metrics that can be understood by anyone with basic math skills.

That someone in Canada could ignore such metrics after their efficacy was proven in the US is inexcusable.

Navin R. Johnson
Guest
Navin R. Johnson

It’s done! Let the erosion begin. Psychology will take this sucker down just like psychology drove it up. I get to rub their freakin’ noses in it. I’ll take great pleasure in it too as many times in the past few years “dummy” ‘ol me was frowned upon for issuing practical warnings. Can anyone else on here relate this this?

Thanks to the many “Bearish” posters on here for tirelessly sticking to your rational arguments regarding this idiotic real estate bubble.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Given that Bernanke and co are about to press Ctrl-P, this will change very quickly as all the HAM floods back into hard assets like RE. As expected, Flaherty and Carney are going to do nothing but sit on their hands and smile.

s
Guest
s

If china does engineer another bubble of sort it’ll be within their own country, they’ll restrict capital outflows as much as possible. They wouldn’t want people to make money in china and ship the jobs out to other countries when they’re in a crisis.

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks

@Turkey: And here I was thinking that a bakery metaphor would be more appropriate than a snowflake — although it looks like you were about to get to the part about the wooden spoons, batter, and steaming buns when you were cut off.

Turkey
Guest
Turkey

@Many Franks: I would like a REALTOR® who has mastered the “French Roll”. Happy?

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks

@Turkey: Happy with a big “H”.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

“We’re in a market that’s much slower than what we’re used to and I think that will transfer into much more sluggish prices, at best.”

Does this mean anything at all?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

For those overextended home owners out there (you know who you are), please use this upcoming surge in buying as an opportunity to lighten up your RE portfolios. While you at it, sell some of your stocks too. Consider this a get out of jail free card from the heavens. I suggest you use it wisely. For the mo-mo idiots out there that see this as an opportunity to double and triple down, you fully deserve what is coming.

Simple
Guest
Simple

In these recent Bears versus Bulls discussions, I think we have been focusing on the wrong animal.

In fact, smart bulls have already cashed in their chips and despite what people like Larry MacDonald say, bears have little influence on this market.

Let me tell you folks. The animal on which we should focus is the pig.

It is pigs that have gorged on cheap credit and driven up prices. It is pigs that now have unreasonable expectations of gains. But this will all change. As the old saying goes “Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.”

I’ll fire up the BBQ.

Scott
Guest
Scott

I’m very curious about the changes to the HPI Benchmark. For years and years we had a system that was internally consistent and could be used to compare historical price changes.

Why was it changed and why can’t they seem to get it right? Now it needs to be ‘recalculated’ regularly and doesn’t seem to have any consistency any more.

Are they really that incompetent?

I know some of you think its a conspiracy and their fudging the numbers to make them look better, but that seems even dumber than incompetence. What would be the endgame there? That would just make a dropping market look even worse by faking the peak higher.

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