‘very clear signs’ of market slowdown

Is the Vancouver real estate market cooked?

Sales are plummeting and the lower mainland is choking on inventory.

Tsur Somerville decided it’s time to sound the warning bell in the Vancouver Sun:

“We’re getting this consistently now,” said Tsur Somerville, director, centre for urban economics and real estate, Sauder School of Business at the University of B.C., after a monthly report by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver showed a continued rise in listings as sales drop.

“We’re in a market that’s much slower than what we’re used to and I think that will transfer into much more sluggish prices, at best.”

According to the board’s report, released Monday, May sales were the lowest total for the month since 2001 and 21.1-per-cent lower than the 10-year average for May sales. Local home sales in April were also the lowest total for that month since 2001.

…yeah, that’s right.  Lowest since 2001.  And the remarkable thing is that the word the real estate board has chosen to describe this market is ‘balanced’.

I guess it is very important to keep your balance while you’re sliding down hill.

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[…] so glad to leave and return home. Vancouver is nice, but it sure ain’t worth the cost.” – Escapee at VCI 6 Jun 2012 9:20pm Share: This entry was posted in 07. Avoiding Vancouver, 14. Social Effects of the Boom, 15. […]

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White Rock renter
White Rock renter
8 years ago

@CuriousLurker – If you blog about your experiences moving stateside, I know I’d be interested. My family is in the exact same position as you, except husband hasnt formally started applying for jobs there yet (software engineer). The only thing that keeps us here is family really. I would love to know how education and health care measure up from someone actually making the switch. I think too often we dismiss the US as a non-option because of the assumption that schooling is terrible and health care is too expensive. I’m betting with better salaries, cheaper cost of living, and affordable housing that maybe healthcare costs and even private school costs would balance out and maybe we’d still come out ahead. I don’t know. I’m just sick of it here, the rain, and the attitude that somehow its different here.… Read more »

asalvari1
asalvari1
8 years ago

@pricedoutfornow:

I am in exactly same situation as you are. With small difference – I had to move just recently.

Regarding your question, I am asking same thing myself as well. I know the options very well (as you are I am sure). Sooo… the answer… is:

WAIT OR BUY OR LEAVE VANCOUVER OR RENT another place.

AG Sage
8 years ago

@ZRH2YVR: Agents are having to work longer hours to get the deal done?

ZRH2YVR
8 years ago

Seems that REBGV is posting some sales late in the evening now so the PaulB numbers are not showing all the transactions. For June 5 there were 141 sales and June 5 there were 157 sales. Quite a difference from what was there when PaulB posted.

We are not quite on the trend to come below 2008 unless the sales start to slow a lot. Where we are seeing a large volume increase is in East Van attached. Otherwise, most other areas are lower than 2008 however including right now Van-West condos.

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

Yatter is showing 144 sales. Just saying.

Devore
Devore
8 years ago

@Navin R. Johnson: I didn’t expect it to be a whole lotta fun, but it sure is interesting.

VMD
VMD
8 years ago

Vancouver West – Detached – Total Dollar Volume:
Pretty sharp drop vs May 2011, even below May 2010 levels.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/96082302/Rebgv-Area-Charts-2012-05-Vancouverwest-Graphs-listed-Sold-Dollarvolume

Bilbo Bloggins
Bilbo Bloggins
8 years ago

@patriotz:
Sewer Sommerville is hardly a neutral voice.
He works for UBC who runs the Sauder School of Real Estate.
He needs to pump RE in order to get students through their licensing program.
Not hard to add 2 and 2 together.

Bilbo Bloggins
Bilbo Bloggins
8 years ago

@Makaya:
No different than people who drive 4hrs each way from Seattle to Portland to save 8% on sales tax.

Makaya
Makaya
8 years ago

It’s funny how people think sometimes…

Stuck in place: Canada’s mobility problem

Mario Garofalo also can’t move. The 42-year-old assembler, who worked at Honeywell for 14 years, doesn’t want to sell his house and leave his parents, girlfriend and nieces and nephews behind. “If I sold now, it would be in a position of weakness – I’d have to rent. I would use up money for other things, and on living expenses,” he says.

So if I follow the logic, it’s better to be a homeowner and unemployed than a employed renter.

This guy just doesn’t realize that he’s already in a position of weakness that that he’ll get himself into trouble with that kind of attitude…

mac
mac
8 years ago

@McLovin: I agree. I’m not having fun either. Mainly because I can no longer bear to go to open houses and torture real estate agents. Hopefully my taste for blood will come back in the fall.

BRITANNY
BRITANNY
8 years ago

THANX PAUL B.

mac
mac
8 years ago

@YLTNboomerang: Economists, even doomers, are as bad a real estate agents. They all talk out of both sides of their mouths. Rosie said that Flaherty had prevented a bubble when he pulled back on CHMC-insured amortizations, what was it, 18 months ago? Now he says that the bubble that he previously said was no longer there has now burst? Aaaaarrrrrgghghghghgh! I’m soon going to go with James Althucher and stop watching/reading the news, period. It’s all useless and just trying to either scare you or entertain you. Completely useless for news or commentary.

McLovin
McLovin
8 years ago

#124 – True but it used to be that I would wonder what the daily’s would be.

Now 30% S/L’s in primetime are the norm.

The excitement has gone. 🙂

This market is one its way to many many years of downward movements. Think Whistler or Florida. The average person has no idea what is in store. This in a perfect market for RE. Imagine an external shock or higher rates?

Vancouver top to bottom – 7 years and 45%.

19K party soon!

UnagiDon
UnagiDon
8 years ago

@curious lurker: Congrats lurker. It warms my heart when people follow their dreams and leave town. You’re headed to a better place.

Navin R. Johnson
Navin R. Johnson
8 years ago

@McLovin: Are you kidding me? This is way more fun 🙂

McLovin
McLovin
8 years ago

Another brutal day for the bulls. I must say this isn’t quite as much fun as it used to be. Now its just a given that the market will crash its not even a question.

Good luck all Bulls or buyers in the last 2 years.

VanDweller
VanDweller
8 years ago

Copied from PaulB’s number. Thank you PaulB.
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
http://tinyurl.com/paulsfacebookpage

Using good-format’s format.

Date      List  Price+-  Sold  Xpired  Inv+-  Inv   S/L(%)
12.05.31   258   160     64      196    -2    18881  25
12.06.01   288   130     147     447    -306  18575  51

12.06.04   340   219     87      145    108   18683  26
12.06.05   309   173     86      82     141   18824  28
12.06.06   281   163     82      102    97    18921  29

Total-Cur  1218  685     402     776    40             
June-Avg   305   171     101     194    10           33
          List  Price+-  Sold  Xpired  Inv+-  Inv   S/L(%)
Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@Escapee:

Do you think Vancouver rents are expensive?

Escapee
Escapee
8 years ago

I definitely prefer watching this bubble implode from the outside 😀

Escapee
Escapee
8 years ago

@curious lurker: I moved away a little more than a year ago. My preconceived notions of how much I would miss Vancouver turned out to be nothing like reality. Sure I miss my good friends and family that live there, but everytime I go to visit I’m so glad to leave and return home.

Vancouver is nice, but it sure ain’t worth the cost.

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@Navin R Johnson:

MOI isn’t 10 yet. Thats one poster’s month-end projection based on the first few days of June.

Navin R. Johnson
Navin R. Johnson
8 years ago

@pricedoutfornow: Move to another destination. We got tired of the Lower Mailand and the exact type of living you’re doing and I found a better job in Calgary. We rent a 4 bedroom house for $1500.00 a month.