‘very clear signs’ of market slowdown

Is the Vancouver real estate market cooked?

Sales are plummeting and the lower mainland is choking on inventory.

Tsur Somerville decided it’s time to sound the warning bell in the Vancouver Sun:

“We’re getting this consistently now,” said Tsur Somerville, director, centre for urban economics and real estate, Sauder School of Business at the University of B.C., after a monthly report by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver showed a continued rise in listings as sales drop.

“We’re in a market that’s much slower than what we’re used to and I think that will transfer into much more sluggish prices, at best.”

According to the board’s report, released Monday, May sales were the lowest total for the month since 2001 and 21.1-per-cent lower than the 10-year average for May sales. Local home sales in April were also the lowest total for that month since 2001.

…yeah, that’s right.  Lowest since 2001.  And the remarkable thing is that the word the real estate board has chosen to describe this market is ‘balanced’.

I guess it is very important to keep your balance while you’re sliding down hill.

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Anonymous
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Anonymous

@ pricedoutfornow

The bubble…was so interesting to study, now it’s just a pain in my a** in real life. What to do while the show’s going on for the next few years…

On the flip side, you could be under water in a depreciating asset, pulling the curtains shut so you don’t have to watch the happy couple on the lawn across the street closing a deal for 40% less than what you paid.

Initia Nova
Member
Initia Nova

@Mortgagee

Ok thanks, that makes more sense.

Mortgagee
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Mortgagee

@Initia Nova: In Vancouver, the finished basement is included in the square footage. So, this is more like a 1000 sqft home, I’m guessing, by standards elsewhere in the country.

Initia Nova
Member
Initia Nova

Is it just me or do many of these listings have suspect estimates of square footage. I don’t know how many times I have seen a 3000 sf+ house listed in Vancouver when there is no way such a house could be so big. (esp on a 32′ wide lot)

Are there loose rules in BC on quoting square footage on MLS?

Anonymous
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Anonymous

@Anonymous:
Don’t worry it will be gone next wks friday and snatch up by Chinese.

pricedoutfornow
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pricedoutfornow
That the housing market is about to plummet makes me feel a bit dismal. Must we now go on waiting for years for prices to come down to a reasonable level? I’ve had so much patience so far…my current housing situation is not great-two kids in a two bedroom apartment. We’ve been looking for other suitable accommodation but haven’t come up with any great solutions. Right now the place we’re in is ideal-great location, great landlord who won’t be selling anytime soon (it looks like), and the rent’s decent. We’re just in need of more space (I also work from home). I’m loathe to look for YET ANOTHER rental, where the landlord will likely be 1) not great, a pain to get ahold of when something goes wrong 2) about to sell, but shiftily tells you they’re not thinking of… Read more »
N
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N

@Selma Bouvier:

It is described as a “townhouse alternative,” which I would have thought meant an alternative to a townhouse, being small and “cheap” like a townhouse, but not a townhouse.

Selma Bouvier
Guest
Selma Bouvier

@Simple:

“Check out V954500 – The little canary house in the coal mine.”

Is that actually a detached? In the description (all caps, thanks for yelling Mr. Realtor) its described as a townhouse?

And am I crazy or is the last photo in the sequence a pic of an entirely different house? It has a red roof and no houses right beside it.

curious lurker
Member
curious lurker
@AG Sage: I think we will choose to rent for at least the first year. It just makes sense to take a little bit of time to get familiar with the area before committing to buying a place we have to live in for a long time. It does seem that monthly costs are really high in the area we are moving too. Maybe we won’t like it down there. Who knows, leaving may open our eyes to the truth that Vancouver really is the BPOE. I’m thinking likely not. I’m looking forward to the adventure of being someplace new and different. Life should be fun and exciting. 30+ years of debt is just not for me. It’s really amazing how much Vancouver demonstrates the ’emperor has no clothes’ children’s story. Who will be the little boy that points out… Read more »
Selma Bouvier
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Selma Bouvier
@curious lurker: [Quote]In any case, after waiting so long and quite a large aount of marital stress over housing, we’re moving away.[/Quote] You’re lucky. If I had a clear path to the US I would be there in a heartbeat. Canada has nothing to offer young people right now. Real estate is overvalued (everywhere, not just YVR) and unless you’re in natural resources there is nothing going on economically for a young person looking to make their mark. As long as you have a decent job, the US is good place to be right now. Salaries are better down there. Greater diversity of jobs/industries. Property values are low and you can deduct your mortgage interest. That’s just a few of the economic advantages, there are many more. Besides, if you really hate it down there you can always come back.… Read more »
Selma Bouvier
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Selma Bouvier
Ah, good ole Tsur. Tsur is the type of guy that walks outside on a rainy day and proclaims that its going to rain that day. He goes with the momentum of the recent data (or at least the perceived market sentiment) . He is not one for bold or contrarian predictions. He is the milque toast of economists. Not that I can blame him. The market hasn’t made sense in 8 years and trying to predict what will happen to YVR RE is impossible. Economics is not an exact science. Most economists are talking out of their asses, IMO. They try to apply rational models to markets that are imperfect, lacking information, and driven by factors that are not based on fundamentals (i.e. market psychology).Then when their model doesn’t explain the actual outcome they just make shit up (HAM,… Read more »
Simple
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Simple

RED DOT POPS UP ON THE WEST SIDE!

If you have spent ANY time on MLS you will know that there hasn’t been a freehold detached house listed on the West side for less than $1,000,000 in a very long time. Well now there is.

Check out V954500 – The little canary house in the coal mine.

Navin R Johnson
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Navin R Johnson

Hey, wasn’t it something like 10 MOI that we needed for the serious erosion to begin? Party on Jack!

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Well, at LEAST GLOBAL TV NEWS is soldiering on…

On tonight’s 6 0’clock News Hour, Deb Hope seemed a tad “startled” to announce that maybe, just maybe, there IS a RE bubble in YVR and it’s “bursting”?

Quick diversion…they showed a house under construction on Point Grey Rd. with an “assessed value” of 37,000,000…head shots of “wise-looking” neighbours. They even interviewed a few. “Well, I’m not surprised!”or, “Really? That much, eh?”

THEN, the REAL talking head showed up. You guessed it, CAM MUIR!

He set everyone’s minds at rest, though. In othr words, “a flat market” or “stable pricing” or some other such nonsense. Phew!

They just won’t give it up, will they?

AG Sage
Member

@curious lurker: Why don’t you rent for a while until you have a credit number built up, then buy. It will save you a bundle in refinancing fees in three years.

bum
Guest
bum

9.53 MOI wow how balanced is that?

Anonymous
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Anonymous
Maverick
Guest
Maverick

@paulb:

Wow. This market is so cooked.

82 new greater fools.

Looking forward to the 19k party tomorrow!

VHB
Member
VHB
Jun-2012	
Total days	21
Days elapsed so far	4
Weekends / holidays	2
Days missing	0
Days remaining	17
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	93
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	295
SALES	
Sales so far	402
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1584
Projected month end total	1986
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	1218
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	5018
Projected month end total	6236
Sell-list so far	33.0%
Projected month-end sell-list	31.9%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of June 6, 2012	18921
Current MoI at this sales pace	9.53

On track for fewer than 2000 sales, based on projections using the 7-day moving average. Ouch. The MoI at today’s pace is 9.53. Ouch ouch. Might hit 10.0 soon….

Anonymous
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Anonymous

@Anonymous: …Being a scholar does not always protect one from the collective narratives of one’s community. ….

Those who can, do. Those who can’t, teach.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

@paulb:

3 straight days of dismal data… The market is officially dead…

Anonymous
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Anonymous

@YLTNboomerang: ….One bubble popped (vancouver), another to go (toronto):….

Isn’t if funny that none of the ‘experts’ started crying ‘bubble’ until Toronto started to go nuts. The fact that Vancouver buyers have been demented for a decade didn’t seem to get noticed. Proving once again that the folks in Toronto need lots of sunscreen on their calfs (since the sun obviously shines out their collective asses).

paulb
Member

New Listings 281
Price Changes 163
Sold Listings 82
TI:18921

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Anonymous: “May be Tsur believes in his own stories.”

Which means he is incompetent and should not be in his current position.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

May be Tsur believes in his own stories. I know someone who works at the School of Business and bought at the peak expecting substantial gains b/c of “the long term impact of HAM.” Being a scholar does not always protect one from the collective narratives of one’s community.