Another Realtor says “SELL NOW”

Should we have some sort of index tracking Realtors making public statements that it’s time to sell?

The market is sluggish, sales are low, inventory is growing.

..And the number of agents saying it’s time to SELL NOW is growing as well.

Agent Keith Roy was in the news recently with his blog post about the sale of his personal property and now Sam Wyatt is saying something similar:

Vancouver’s real estate market is getting and is going to get hit from both ends.  So, now that you are thoroughly depressed, here is the bright light:  IF YOU SELL NOW, YOU WILL STILL BE SELLING NEAR THE TOP OF THE MARKET.  If you plan to sell, you will need to price BELOW the most recent comparable sales prices.  If you don’t do this, your listing will stagnate.  I am pleased that this methodology has produced 4 sales in the last 30 days for my clients in a market were most homes are not selling.  In one case we had a multiple offer with a significant over asking result and in another we negotiated a full asking price sale.

I guess the important part is in all caps.

So can anyone find me a Realtor saying that now is a good time to buy in Vancouver?

 

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VHB
VHB
8 years ago

Here are the month-end projections, using a 7day MA Jul-2012 Total days 21 Days elapsed so far 10 Weekends / holidays 6 Days missing 0 Days remaining 11 7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales 106 7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings 238 SALES Sales so far 1165 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 1170 Projected month end total 2335 NEW LISTINGS Listings so far 2608 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 2614 Projected month end total 5222 Sell-list so far 44.7% Projected month-end sell-list 44.7% MONTHS OF INVENTORY Inventory as of July 16, 2012 19179 Current MoI at this sales pace 8.21 Here are the July norms: year sell list sell/list 2001 2618 3504 74.7% 2002 2670 3929 68.0% 2003 4023 4447 90.5% 2004 3019 4785 63.1% 2005 3652 4107 88.9% 2006 2732 4370 62.5% 2007… Read more »

SunBlaster
SunBlaster
8 years ago

Sex sells, just tell the potential renter that your wife/sister is going to be around while you are away, and the place will get rent out right away!

Borat voice: She is my sister, you rent with her for a month, she sleeps in closets! You let her share bed with you, she is nice!

NEXT, RENT FOR AN HOUR while I AM AWAY! Could that we actually called a rental?

Neighbors
Neighbors
8 years ago

For those destined to move in to these select neighborhoods….

Look at who your neighbors are gonna be

188 east 1st next to Mechanica. City run social housing tower for homeless, addicts etc

215-225 west 2nd amongst all those trendy towers under construction

1601 west 7th

And nine others just look at cov supportive housing

A lot in prime areas of the city

I wonder how many buyers actually know about these

No Noise
No Noise
8 years ago

@ Best place on Meth

Could be good crash pad downtown for me to get away from the wife and kids during August. Will I have access to all of your RE data? Throw in your PC password and you have a deal! Your sister shouldn’t be hot though. My wife..

rp1
rp1
8 years ago

#54 @Boombust: “That video…the guy is a freakin’ idiot. Can you imagine HIM managing the biggest purchase of most peoples’ lives?”

I think we have a demonstration of exactly that coming up.

rp1
rp1
8 years ago

#53 @Best place on meth: “I’ll be away for a month but you can share this place with my sister while I’m gone.”

This sounds way better than the axe murderer rental. “She’s at school all day long” – ok, I’ll just make dinner and pick up a bottle of wine 🙂

N
N
8 years ago

@ScubaSteve:

>>realtors could care less how much RE drops as long as they can benefit from it. Scumbags.<<

So they are scumbags for pumping it and scumbags for standing by and letting it drop.

ScubaSteve
ScubaSteve
8 years ago

Down we go…

Sales on July 9th (last day for a 30 year) were the highest they have been all month long. What a surprise! We had 158 sales on that day. Since then?

77, 134, 115, 99, 107

Today we were 51 sales lower than last Monday. Today was also the 1 week expiration date for subjects that a lot of people set. Meanwhile, realtors just care about SALES not PRICES. Since real estate fees in BC are front loaded (7% on first 100k), realtors could care less how much RE drops as long as they can benefit from it. Scumbags.

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@Smog Man: “The smog is not from fires in the States, but from Siberia. Unimaginably huge fires are burning there. And with the effects of global warming outstripping the worst case projections Vancouverites should probably look forward to it being a regular summer phenomenon.”

I heard the smog was due to the Conservative government burning the carcasses of dead cattle to hide their covert mutilation projects.

crashcow
8 years ago

hey Scotiabank, did you mark-to-market your RE loan portfolio lately? You’re poorer than you think.

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

Get your binoculars out fellow voyeurs; the tide is going out! Start counting the schlongs.

VanDweller
VanDweller
8 years ago

Copied from PaulB’s number. Thank you PaulB.
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

Date      List  Price+-  Sold  Xpired  Inv+-  Inv   S/L(%)
12.06.29   244   166     67      100    77    19630  27

12.07.03   304   188     116     1000   -812  18818  38
12.07.04   324   145     165     83     76    18894  51
12.07.05   281   184     112     91     78    18972  40
12.07.06*

12.07.09   278   195     158                  19053  57
12.07.10   266   183     77      102    87    19140  29
12.07.11   222   140     134     125    -37   19103  60
12.07.12   216   165     115     69     32    19135  53
12.07.13   236   139     99      64     73    19208  42

12.07.16   248   165     107     170    -29   19179  43

July-Tot   2375  1504    1083    1704   -532         
July-Avg   264   167     120     213    -67          46
          List  Price+-  Sold  Xpired  Inv+-  Inv   S/L(%)

*No data available for this date.

patriotz
8 years ago

@gokou3:
“Condos like these will end up selling below replacement (construction) value, just like they did / do in many US markets.”

Well depends on just what you mean. They will sell below their own construction cost, but they won’t sell below the construction cost of new condos, because that will follow the market price down, as we have seen in the US.

paulb
8 years ago

New Listings 248
Price Changes 165
Sold Listings 107
TI:19179

http://www.laurenandpaul.com

Joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
8 years ago

Indeed, the hazy air in the Lower Mainland of late is due to massive forest fires in Siberia.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/07/10/bc-haze-russian-forest-fire.htm

I was just on this blog last week talking about how BC is down wind from Asia and how air pollution from China makes its way here as prevailing winds blow east. We have tendency to think Asia is too far away to effect us so it’s good to see this story in the mainstream media.

midnite toker
midnite toker
8 years ago

@Best place on meth: no pics of his sister? C’mon!

jesse
8 years ago

@M-: “so buyers can take their time and have inspection” If CMHC received a flood of applications leading up to July 9th chances are they won’t be able to get through those right away. If that’s the case the subject sales we’re seeing coming through are partly driven by CMHC backlog. But also, as you mention, buyers are more cautious and, with higher MOI, can negotiate longer-lasting and more onerous subject terms. There are also ways of getting discounts without them showing up in the sales price, including requiring existing owners to repair deficiencies before closing; not something I would recommend because buyers don’t have control over the quality of the repair, but from what I’ve seen often brought up in negotiation after an inspection. When I have seen this invoked I cannot recall a time when I was impressed… Read more »

pricedoutfornow
pricedoutfornow
8 years ago

@Best place on meth:

Re: short term rental

Let me guess: the siblings bought a condo together, couldn’t afford a two bed so they share a one bed plus den and split the mortgage. They each pay $1200/month towards the mortgage. Now the guy’s going away for the month and needs someone to cover his half. Just my guess.

How much??
How much??
8 years ago

@Best place on meth:

Dummy. One nice provocative pic of sis and rent could easily be doubled.

jesse
8 years ago

@Best place on meth: “$3 billion in Chinese money has disappeared compared to last year”

The arrow infographic assumes that the sales of properties in the “hot” areas mean sellers immediately turn around and buy properties in the other areas. It also assumes the capital from China is cash and not financed through Canadian sources. A corollary is that there should be arrows pointing out to service debt.

Work out how leveraged that $3BB capital injection is to produce the results they are describing. I count 4-5 arrows.

Funny stuff.

DonLogan
DonLogan
8 years ago

@Best place on meth:

What, no photo of the sister?

Smog Man
Smog Man
8 years ago

The smog is not from fires in the States, but from Siberia. Unimaginably huge fires are burning there. And with the effects of global warming outstripping the worst case projections Vancouverites should probably look forward to it being a regular summer phenomenon.

kansai92
kansai92
8 years ago

Let’s say we were to have a drinking game so when we read a phrase like “best place on earth” or “running out of land” or “balanced market” we all take a shot.
How long do you think it would be before everyone’s passed out drunk?

Boombust
Boombust
8 years ago

PS:

That graphic showing the Chinese money “flow” using the arrow reminds me of Nazi newsreels showing the “alien hordes of non-Aryans” (Jews) infiltrating from the East…