BC, data, supply

Detached home sales collapse in June

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198 Comments

Wow.

It looks like the number of detached home sales in a number of lower mainland areas are coming in very low for June this year.

It’s useful to look at what sales looked like in June 2012 compared with the last many years.

Fortunately Inventory posted a bunch of month-end stats showing exactly that this weekend.

Here’s Richmond, which saw an all-time low number of sales of detached homes:

1995 = 112
1996 = 114
1997 = 144
1998 = 105
1999 = 135
2000 = 128
2001 = 160
2002 = 139
2003 = 166
2004 = 147
2005 = 248
2006 = 170
2007 = 198
2008 = 115
2009 = 204
2010 = 139
2011 = 158
2012 = 73 **June 28

Here’s what’s happening with detached sales on the west side:

1995 = 108
1996 = 133
1997 = 140
1998 = 126
1999 = 152
2000 = 125
2001 = 189
2002 = 150
2003 = 180
2004 = 154
2005 = 185
2006 = 181
2007 = 177
2008 = 108
2009 = 200
2010 = 147
2011 = 213
2012 = 99 **June 28

..And here’s the East side, which up until now has been one of the last ‘hot-spots’ It is now also at an all time low:

1995 = 145
1996 = 175
1997 = 185
1998 = 136
1999 = 233
2000 = 185
2001 = 269
2002 = 203
2003 = 282
2004 = 243
2005 = 303
2006 = 396
2007 = 244
2008 = 139
2009 = 238
2010 = 145
2011 = 180
2012 = 107 ***June 29

Thanks Inventory for all the numbers!

It will be very interesting to compare July to previous years since we’ve got about one more week until the new mortgage rules come into force which includes reseting the amortization limit back to 25 years.

Here’s a very informative chart showing the effect of amortization and interest rates on the ability to buy based on Vancouvers Median after-tax income (click to see large). This was posted by Taipan over at Real Estate Talks:

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[…] days we will hear press reports about just how bad June’s sales data is. As noted over on Vancouver Condo Info today, detached home sales in some areas were the worst in 15 years. Here is the data from […]

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Vote Down The Facts

@oneangryslav2:

Yes, i understand why my figure is different – because it doesn’t extrapolate the last 7 days of sales back to the beginning of the month (therefore overestimating MOI in a slowing market and underestimating it in an accelerating market).

My figure is the true MOI by its standard definition. When sales pick up later in the year I’m sure I’m sure you’ll be more than happy to hear that MOI is actually higher than VHB’s metric.

If you think pointing out this glaring error is “being a prick” then that says more about you than it does me.

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Dan in Calgary

@rp1, “So in Vancouver, higher pot prices could be supported by real estate? Oh the irony.”

I see this becoming a trend. Just think of it…. tens of thousands of small-scale light-bulb-in-a-walk-in-closet grow-ops. The price of pot will plummet, making large-scale growops no longer economically feasible. Thousands of ex-grow-op tear-downs will flood the market, contributing further to Vancouver price declines.

It’s a win-win!!!

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It's too late

It’s too late. If you can afford to hold on to it then do that. Live your life in your home. Don’t think of it as an investment. I was working at Lehman. I saw how it started. The only way you can get out of this is to short the Canadian banks.
Good luck to all.

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It's too late

It’s too late. If you can afford to hold onto to it then do that. Live your life in your home. Don’t think of it as an investment. I was working at Lehman. I saw how it started. The only way you can get out of this is to short the Canadian banks.
Good luck to all.

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Vulture Fun

Holy crap! 191 comments already? It seems obvious that this blog is getting a lot more attention. Anyone have any stats on this? A few comments are regularly voted past 50, so based on that there must be some kind of traffic surge going on. Does anyone know how many visitors per day? To the owner: I hope you are making tons of money (or at least covering the cost of webhosting!) Enlightening and hopefully converting greater fools is truly righteous work. I have a feeling the blog’s message will be relevant for a very long time.

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trackback

[…] Forum « Detached home sales collapse in June […]

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N

@GNFNGR: “I would think there would need to be a catalyst for people to sell their place for 20% less than they thought it was worth a year earlier. So, would most people simply not try to sell their house until the market ‘turned around’? If they can afford their payments, barring a job loss, or interest rate hike would they simply not hold steady?” The first part of the answer is that most people will, indeed hold steady. The second part of the answer is that the fist part doesn’t matter. Let’s imagine there are a hundred people who are thinking about selling identical houses, which they all bought for $1M. They are all sitting there waiting for an offer and not much is happening. Then one house sells, but only for 800K. That’s the market price now. Out… Read more »

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squeako

$1,100 for that ??

What are they thinking?

It is horriblis. It is suitable for fungus only.

~ Squeako ~

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Anonymous

@Not much of a name…: “We’ve never had trouble making our mortgage payments so we were a little surprised when the bank told us we don’t qualify for our usual refinancing.”

I have a friend who does the same thing via HELOC. He figures housing prices will continue to go up and he will just take that out via HELOC to live off, make mortgage payments, etc. I suspect the jig will be up soon for many with the new rules on HELOCs which will lead to distress sales.

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HAM Solo

@ Not much

Otherwise known as kiting!

Someone should create a Canadian flag with a big red kite in the place of the maple leaf. It’s the national pastime…soon coming to a crushing end.

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midnite toker

@rp1: I think we will see lots more amateur landlords turned amateur growers soon enough. 😉

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Anonymous

@VMD: OMG! Can you imagine him debating Rennie & Good at the same time” I would pay big cash to see that. Especially if it was televised live on Global. “What you say, Mr. Rennie and what you say Mr. Good is pure sophistry, the evil of our time and the noxious hot air that blew our housing bubble to astronomical heights on the backs of taxpayers. Meanwhile, you pay lip service to affordable and social housing and other nonsense you’re lifestyle says you’re not in the least bit interested in. Well, Mr. Rennie & Mr. Good, it’s time someone handed you your hats. The whole house of cards is about to come tumbling down and its about time you two made good on your exit. Slink away so that those who are responsible can clean up your mess. Consider… Read more »

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mac

@shriller: I know what you’re saying. How many restaurants on 4th and on Denman aren’t serving meals because their customers are stuffing their faces in Bellingham?

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oneangryslav2

@Vote Down The Facts: So, now it looks like your objective is to be a prick, is it? You do understand that June listings expirations are always very high relatively to other months. I also hope that you understand why your MOI figure is different from VHB’s.

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Vote Down The Facts

@Vote Down The Facts: “There were about 2473 sales last month (couldn’t find an update for Friday, so that’s based off Thursday’s projection). Inventory today is 18818. That makes MOI 18818/2473=7.6”

Vote down those facts, people.

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ReadyToPop

Banking scandal: how document trail reveals global scam

It is understood at least 16 banks in addition to Barclays are being investigated. Inquiries into alleged market manipulation are being carried out in the UK, the US, Japan, Canada, the European Union and Singapore and involve nine government agencies.

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Mortgagee

@meth: Love the electrical job on the suite reno. The pictures look like they were taken with a spy/briefcase camera. The “tunnel vision” effect on the exterior photo is, somehow, very fitting.

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ScubaSteve

@Best place on meth:

They didn’t buy the camera – the found it in the basement. It has some weird photos of a Spice Girls concert from 1999 on it.

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rp1

#98 @VMD: “A former real estate agent is in the midst of a cross-country seminar tour to teach potential students how to set up their own marijuana grow operations — legally.”

So in Vancouver, higher pot prices could be supported by real estate? Oh the irony.

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VHB

“we don’t qualify for our usual refinancing. ”

Our ‘usual financing’. ‘Usual’.

That people view this as something they do so often they have a ‘usual’ is just f***ing nuts.

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Not much of a name...

And people wonder why the mortgage rules were changed…

http://www.theprovince.com/business/Living+within+your+means/6874827/story.html

Q: We’ve always used our line of credit to pay our bills and credit cards. We’d then refinance our mort-gage to pay off our line of credit.

We’ve never had trouble making our mortgage payments so we were a little surprised when the bank told us we don’t qualify for our usual refinancing. Now we’re not sure what to do because our credit line is maxed and it’s only a matter of time before we can’t afford the payments. Help!

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Lionel Hutz

@Best place on meth: I guess they didn’t have much left over for the camera. Those were some grainy looking photos.

God, what a depressing basement. $1100? Thanks but I think I will pay that much and stay above ground.

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Best place on meth

Congratulations Sarah and Andrew on buying your first home – and first camera.

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/3117523252.html

I’m sure they’ll both bring you many wonderful memories and exciting new challenges.

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