Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again!

Let’s do our regular end of the week news round-up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Experts perplexed at decline in sales
Vancouver too tiny to count?
CTV video on squeezed families
Downtown Vancouvers Dead Zone
Toronto condo sales plunge
Offering 90k over ask on single bid?
Expanding the seawall past Kits
tougher credit cheaper houses

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news link, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

 

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Maverick
Guest
Maverick

Garth posted a pretty good piece on Victoria:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxqK9FKIcG8&feature=player_embedded

You get the sense that fear is becoming palpable, especially with the mortgage change deadline tomorrow being portrayed as some kind of doomsday for the market. Median SFH prices down 40k YoY.

I see tomorrow as a catalyst, engineering the reaction that would have happened anyway, just sooner, and ultimately with less fallout.

You have to think that if MOI can hit somewhere around 12 later this year, a price “waterfall” event is not out of the question.

patriotz
Member

It is now cheaper to buy a home than it is to rent in virtually every major city in the United States, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting…

With credit tight, many consumers have no choice but to rent. Others who can afford to buy are also renting, because they view real estate as a lousy investment. As demand has increased, rents in some cities have jumped by double-digit percentage rates.

Duh. DUH. DUH.

patriotz
Member

Victoria bust makes the news

Thanks to House Hunt Victoria and regular contributor Marko Juras.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Re: Victoria

The interesting thing about the Victoria video other than the carnage on prices is the comment by the realtor at the end when asked if he saw an increase in buying to beet the coming CMHC changes. He said no, people seem to be waiting to see if prices come down after the changes. This is the psychology we need. Everyone keeps waiting for prices to come down.

Mick Murphy
Guest
Mick Murphy
piklishi
Guest
piklishi

I just wanted to add another article that was published yesterday at thestar with the headline : “Toronto home sales drop 5.4% in June”

It starts like this ” Toronto-area house hunters took a vacation from open houses and bidding wars in June after an earlier than usual buying spree in April and May.

Home sales declined 5.4 per cent across the GTA last month…
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1221810–toronto-home-sales-down-5-4-per-cent-realtors-say.

Mick Murphy
Guest
Mick Murphy

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/buyer+market+wishful+thinking/6889931/story.html

A buyer’s market, or wishful thinking?

It takes more than just a greater supply of homes to entice homebuyers to enter market

lavarocks
Guest
lavarocks

Anybody remember when the US real estate faithful sounded exactly like they do here now?

“I’m not going to give it away”

Now this is the scene:

Today’s housing market is a buyer’s paradise.

It is now cheaper to buy a home than it is to rent in virtually every major city in the United States, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

Those fundamentals have a way of coming back to bite you in the ass, even if they can’t be summed up in an elevator, a tweet or a blog post.

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Guest
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs

“The Economist’s analysis of price-to-rent ratios suggests that Canadian properties were about 75% above their long-run “fair value” in the first quarter of 2012”

http://www.economist.com/node/21557731

registered
Member
registered

Hard to understand what the experts find perplexing, banks aren’t lending as freely, shrinking the buyer pool and therefore demand:

“Tom Choy, a real estate agent with Sutton West Coast Realty, who has been in business since 1992, said he has noticed the slowdown. One customer backed out of a condo purchase after new mortgage rules were announced last month, saying his bank had told him that the new maximum debt-service ratios meant his planned purchase wouldn’t work unless his wife also earned an income.

Other customers who are close to the federal government’s new maximum debt ratios have also stepped away from purchases, Mr. Choy said. At the same time, he has had homeowners who are looking to sell reduce their asking prices.”

Is anyone seeing banks getting an early jump on tightened lending standards?

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Phew! It feels like D-Day…The Allies have landed and liberation is on the way.

Be patient…(or, BE a patient).

Bag it and tag it
Guest
Bag it and tag it

@Maverick: Good piece indeed, except they said prices in Vancouver are still going up and they finish with the seemingly always requisite bullish comment ‘…there may never be a better time to buy than right now’

Bilbo Bloggins
Guest
Bilbo Bloggins

@lavarocks:
And the other famous sayings:
“Boom, boom, boom!”
“I buy three and my huzzba buy three!”

Bilbo Bloggins
Guest
Bilbo Bloggins

You say experts, I say talking heads. Same difference.

Rightsizer
Guest
Rightsizer

Now this is what I call a buyers market, yessiree. Prices are still near record highs so you know the product is valuable. There are fewer and fewer buyers so you know the product is exclusive. Time is rapidly running out to buy at or near the peak!

Bag it and tag it
Guest
Bag it and tag it

@lavarocks:
CREA must send out the same dictionary to all the boards since they all seem to adopt the same terminology.

Ways to describe/explain a crash:

buyer vacation
buyers taking a breather
weather too nice
weather too bad
bottom end of balanced
buyer’s market
balanced in favour of buyers
buyer’s paradise
best time ever to buy to buy in the BPOE!

van_coffee
Guest
van_coffee

@ Chilled

Sorry I missed your response to my post on the last string.

I have a perspective on Golf as well, and, specifically your question.

You said that you have a “Fade” that verges on a “Hook”. I think your terminology is off.

You either have a DRAW that verges on a HOOK OR you have a FADE that verges on SLICE.

Not knowing anyting about you, and just assuming that you are like 99% of the popoulation, I would suggest that you likely fall into the later camp, and your “FADE” is probably much closer to a SLICE.

My perspective is to pick up a classic tome and study it – the 5 lessons: modern fundamentals of golf.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

It’s a happy time for buyers. Prices don’t get much lower than this. So come on out and make an offer! Once fall arrives, it’s back to the seller’s market again.

I gotta make a lease payment on my BMW. Oh some beer money and lunch at Glowbal, too.

So, just make an offer, ok?

Oh, one more thing, I don’t deal with 1% realty.

Dan in Calgary
Guest
Dan in Calgary

@lavarocks: Anybody remember when the US real estate faithful sounded exactly like they do here now?
“I’m not going to give it away”

In the early 1980s, a lot of Calgary homeowners didn’t have a choice about “giving their house away” after the Calgary RE market crashed badly. Before the crash, parents were encouraging their kids to “buy now or be priced out forever”. Then the market changed. The economy/market/reasons-for-crash/interest-rates/etc were all different from now, but the rhetoric was likely very similar.

Indeed, a lot of people would sell their house for $1 and the new owner would assume the mortage. The phrase “dollar your house” was coined. Now that isn’t quite “giving it away” but it’s close.

It literally took decades for prices to recover.

Here’s a graph of the crash from the old Calgarian Contrarian blog.

900kCrackHouse
Guest
900kCrackHouse

I have a CHMC ad on the side banner of this page. Kind of ironic that we have CHMC paying to advertise on the side of a bear blog.

Troll
Guest
Troll
Makaya
Member
Makaya

@Troll: I love the conclusion of your article:

What happens next is unknown, but what’s happened up until now is crystal clear. San Diego’s stunning home price increases were owed not to fundamentals but to euphoric optimism, excessive risk taking, and increasingly unreasonable expectations of future price gains. This is the very definition of a speculative bubble.

Since we’re already seen the movie playing in the US, at least we know what comes next in Vancouver…

Troll
Guest
Troll

@Makaya: Although, to be fair, they took it to a whole other level. At the time, interest only mortgages accounted for more than 60% of all new mortgages.

UnagiDon
Guest
UnagiDon

“experts remain perplexed as to exactly why the city is seeing such a decline in transactions right now”

Maybe that’s because those “experts” are a bunch of fucking morons with no credibility. VCI’s gang of anonymous bloggers and armchair economists are far more intelligent and credible.

/dev/null
Member
/dev/null

@900kCrackHouse: I have a CHMC ad on the side banner of this page. Kind of ironic that we have CHMC paying to advertise on the side of a bear blog.

Yes, most of the ads on this blog are from the real estate industry (because of the way the automated content->ad analysis works). Also ironic that if you click on them it costs those companies money, some of which goes to our proprietor Pope. Just saying…

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