Friday Free-for-all!

Hey, guess what? You made it to the end of another work week.  It’s friday and that means it’s time for us to kick back with our open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  Here are a few links to get the conversation started:

Will the US outpace Canadian growth?
The housing bubble makes us rich
Flying too close to the sun?
Vancouver slides, Toronto ‘balanced’
Commercial RE cheaper to buy 
A campaign based on video games
Mondo condo listings
Updated Real estate bubble chart book
Consumer debt growing slower
What to make of new HPI?
Olympic plunge in London prices
Comment formatting tips

 

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
yvr2zrh
Member

Instead of saying first – I will say

Thursday’s sales – 85
of which 27 were post July 9

Navin R. Johnson
Guest
Navin R. Johnson

@ZRH2YVR:

Thanks for your updates. That is still a lot of pre-July 9th sales

ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve

@ZRH2YVR:

ZRH2YVR – Those stats are downright shocking. This is going to get bad quickly if these numbers keep up. Sales are trending downward big time. MOI sky rocketed up. If we see these trends continue for the final 8 business days of the month, we may come close to the 2008 lows. What a mess. Realtors will probably blame the poor weather, or maybe the London olympics – keeping people indoors? Worth a laugh anyways.

rp1
Guest
rp1

Looking at an old Mish post:

“In what sense of the imagination is that house worth over $400K? One listing does not a city make but some listings I looked at in Toronto and Vancouver are as silly as prices in California or Florida.”

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2006/06/bubble-trouble-in-canada-and-spain.html

Well I guess the joke’s on him (and us) because 3 bedroom houses on that block now start at 1.2 million dollars. There is little change if you price it in gold. Lesson learned anyone?

VHB
Member
VHB

@Navin R. Johnson: ” That is still a lot of pre-July 9th sales”

I don’t know that it’s so much that there are still a lot of pre-July 9th sales. The bigger deal with ZRH2YVR’s numbers is that there are so few AFTER July 9th. Normally at this point we would be seeing more sales from the previous 7 days. But we’re not. Which, as ScubaSteve points out, bodes not very well for sales numbers for the rest of the month.

ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve

Guess it could be worse, we could live in Colorado. Terrible news coming out on CNN right now about 14+ people dead in a movie theatre shooting at the premiere of The Dark Knight Rises. Unrealted to RE, but none the less, consuming media today…

patriotz
Member

@ScubaSteve:
Yahoo, in their usual degree of on-the-ball-ness, still has the big banner ads for “The Dark Knight RIses” on either side of their home page which leads with the Denver story.

patriotz
Member

@rp1:
“”If you are looking for a bubble, don’t point to Alberta,” said Richard Corriveau, regional economist for the Prairies with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.”

Prices in Alberta crashed one year later.

Whatever you may think of his views on other topics Mish has always been one of the most prescient commentators on the global RE bubble, as well as one of the most entertaining.

jesse
Member

Don Campbell : Now Is The Time To Get Real About Real Estate

I just liked the title.

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Guest
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Regarding the Dark Knight Rises Batman shooting: Real estate bears often point out price differentials between the US and Canada that show how much more value you get when you buy US real estate compared to Canadian real estate. Heck, I remember seeing that Paula Abdul’s mansion in California was selling for the same price as a crack shack in Vancouver. It is tempting to move to the US with these price differentials. But the one thing that keeps me away from the US is the gun violence – and the random nature of it. These random rampage public shootings just don’t seen to happen in Canada (knock on wood). I mean, in the states, you can get shot dead just going to the movie theatre to see the latest batman movie. That doesn’t happen in Canada. Toronto and Vancouver… Read more »
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Guest
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs

Just as I posted that I thought of the Montreal Massacre, which was a public rampage shooting of strangers. Okay, so it’s happened once in Canada. We’re not really safe here either. But I think we’re way safer still in Canada compared to the US simply because there are fewer guns here.

metalhead
Member
metalhead

Are you kidding me?

By coincidence, I’m in Denver right now.

You are not going to ever visit the U.S. because you are scared of a random shooting?

I’m amazed you have the courage to ever leave your home!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: “But the one thing that keeps me away from the US is the gun violence – and the random nature of it.”

Yes we never see that in Canada

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/07/19/toronto-scarborough-street-party-shooting.html

“Politicians are under pressure to curb the gun violence that has claimed four lives in Toronto this week”

frank
Guest
frank

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs:

Maybe if we just incinerated these fuckers when they are caught, instead of imprisoning them and trying to ‘rehabilitate’ them we could rid society of vermin. The Montreal Shooter who killed intelligent, young women is still alive eating three meals a day and watching TV at our expense as is Barnardo.

Some bleeding hearts even want them released so they can pass their warped genes on. I say give the families of the victims a blunt knife and let them decide what happens.

Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
Guest
Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs

@Anonymous #13

Yes, there have been several high profile public shootings in Toronto recently. But I believe those have all been targeted shootings. A gang member was targeting another gang member in a public place. Although very serious, that is different from the random shooting of strangers like what happened in Colorado. Although even with these targeted shootings innocent people can get caught in the cross fire.

condo watcher
Guest
condo watcher
Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
Guest
Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
I just want to say that in my comment #10, I think I was wrong. I want to take it back. I can think of at least 3 public shootings of strangers in Canada. There was the Dawson College shooting in Montreal in 2006. There was the Fabrikant shooting spree in Concordia University in 1992. Also in Montreal, there was the Ecole Polytechnique shooting of female students in 1989. There was also that guy in Vancouver recently who had a hit list of targets, such as his landlord (okay, so that was targeted, but targeted at innocent people unconnected to crime, so it has a semi-random component) Okay, so these tragedies can and do happen in Canada. I WAS WRONG!!! I guess when one’s sense of public safety is threatened, one comes up with rationalizations to make one feel safe.… Read more »
Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
Guest
Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
From wikipedia: “The United States has the highest rate of gun related injuries (not deaths per capita) among developed countries, though they also have the highest rate of gun ownership and highest rate of officers.” Firearm homicide rate per 100,000 population: Canada: 0.54 USA: 2.97 Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence So yes, the USA does have a much bigger problem with gun violence than does the US. That is reason for me to avoid visiting/living in the USA. I don’t want to be in a country that has such a massive gun problem. That is my choice. I would even be willing to pay more for real estate in a country with gun control and fewer instances of gun violence (although not as much more as the current RE price differentials between Canada and US). HAVING SAID THAT, I WANT TO REITERATE I… Read more »
Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
Guest
Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs

correction:

“the USA does have a much bigger problem with gun violence than does the US”

should read:

“the USA does have a much bigger problem with gun violence than does Canada”

Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
Guest
Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
Even when I admit I was wrong, I get voted down. How many times do you see people outright say they were wrong on this blog! I even gave an explanation for my poor logic: a desire to feel safe in public leads to a false rationalization that random shootings of strangers never happen in Canada. I WAS WRONG! RANDOM SHOOTINGS OF STRANGERS DO HAPPEN IN CANADA. I ADMIT I WAS WRONG! But, you guys have to admit it is a statistical fact that the USA has more gun violence than Canada, by a large margin. This includes targeted and untargeted shootings. You guys also have to admit there is something qualitatively different between what happened in Colorado last night and the recent gun violence in Toronto. Although both are very tragic–the Toronto shooting were gang members/drug dealers shooting other… Read more »
N
Guest
N

Real estate, folks.

LS
Guest
LS

@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs:

Hahaha well there is definitely no one who would doubt Canada having less gun violence than the US (there has to be some sense behind The Increasing Trend of U.S. Immigration to Canada), we also have higher taxes, better health insurance, education is equally bad in both countries and our RE is being consumed in the exact same way it did in US three four years before.

Buy you have got a point!

registered
Member
registered

Re: the first article, its title – “Dodging housing bubble could cost Canadian economy its dominance” – initially suggests special interests over responsible journalism but the text is far subtler. It lays out Canada’s ‘dominance’ was thanks to government and housing stimulus, as was Harper’s majority victory. The underlying message comes through loud and clear. Clever writing.

The comment section dispenses with subtlety. It appears the public no longer has the patience to dance around the obvious.

yvr2zrh
Member

Here’s the total so far through yesterday.

Total Post July 9 Sales through yesterday (8 sales days).
46 detached and 70 attached for 116 sales. I will try to keep posting until the Pre July 10 sales are not significant. I have given only days 6-8 details. In days 1 through 5, there were only 33 Post July 9 sales.

shriller
Guest
shriller
@ZRH2YVR I quite appreciate your numbers. Thanks for posting them. I wish I could get access to the raw data like you can. A quick question — if you were to take say June 19th (or May 19th), what proportion of sales reported on that day would have been post June 9th? I just wonder if it is usual for sales to be reported with such a lag. It would make it easier to believe that the new rules are having a serious impact. Another way to look at it would be to use a rolling-window of sales prior to and post July 9th by date of sale. Personally, I think that the biggest change for the banks is the scaling back of covered-bonds. So I would also look at the 20% plus downpayment sales data if one could. The… Read more »
wpDiscuz