Friday Free-for-all!

Hey, guess what? You made it to the end of another work week.  It’s friday and that means it’s time for us to kick back with our open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  Here are a few links to get the conversation started:

Will the US outpace Canadian growth?
The housing bubble makes us rich
Flying too close to the sun?
Vancouver slides, Toronto ‘balanced’
Commercial RE cheaper to buy 
A campaign based on video games
Mondo condo listings
Updated Real estate bubble chart book
Consumer debt growing slower
What to make of new HPI?
Olympic plunge in London prices
Comment formatting tips

 

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Vote Down The Facts: “Isn’t it usually the top-end of the market where price decreases begin? Aren’t we already seeing that?”

First time buyers are typically what drives the market and where things dry up first. In Vancouver there was a lot of speculation on the Westside and Richmond with SFH which seems to have poped first. But as far as one driving the other it is the first time buyer that is critical for the market to keep going. The high end stuff could correct and not impact the rest of the market.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Oneangryslav2:this is the epitome of behavior characterized as “chasing the market down.”

Asking 429K for a dump in Spectrum is not chasing the market down. It would have never sold for that even at peak.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

@ScubaSteve: “It will trickle down to houses.”

Isn’t it usually the top-end of the market where price decreases begin? Aren’t we already seeing that?

Oneangryslav2
Guest
Oneangryslav2

@Anonymous: I know you think you were being clever, but this is the epitome of behavior characterized as “chasing the market down.” Rather than pricing at a significant discount to generate interest and a sale, the owner will continue to drop the asking price 1or 2 percent at a time.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Anonymous: “I’ve been watching good old Spectrum listings just for fun… Listed in April for 437,000. Didn’t sell, so pulled off the market and re-listed this week for 429,000.”

That is a notable price reduction in one of the most prestigious buildings in Vancouver. Wow, almost 2% off the original asking price. It might be time to buy. Looks like some serious carnage.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@ZRH2YVR: “Sigh – what a trend – – back in 2008/2009 – the govt’s of the world pulled out all the liquidity stops. So we pumped this thing up. Now – the amunition is limited if there at all.”

It is really not about ammunition, it is about what the federal government is trying to do in Canada. In 2008/2009 they were trying to prepare for an election and get a majority government. Now they have a majority and the next election is years away they are trying to deflate the bubble now rather than it popping later closer to the election. Things are going as planned. They want housing to correct.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

I’ve been watching good old Spectrum listings just for fun…

For example, 3005-111 West Georgia St. This particular listing seems to be chasing down the market (what’s NOT to do in the declining market…).

Listed in April for 437,000. Didn’t sell, so pulled off the market and re-listed this week for 429,000.

This is the beginning of a death spiral.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@ScubaSteve:

“Are we projected to have worse sales than July 2011 yet based on the 7 day moving average?”

Average sales per day last July was 132.

This July is 109 and falling.

N
Guest
N

@McLovin:

The masses don’t look at the stats every day like we do. They will panic when it is too late which, if nothing else, is the time at which panic is most appropriate.

crashcow
Member

@TPFKAA: from year of the dragon to year of the bear. nice.

ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve
@McLovin: I get the impression that Vancouverites are attempting the old “Take my listing off, and put it back up next year for more” trick. This time it won’t work though. MOI is approaching 10 and once it hits that mark, prices will drop. This is where condos come in and SHINE! Because condos compete directly with exact floorplans, selling wars break out and drag the whole market down. It will trickle down to houses. Once sellers see prices dropping they will panic and we will see a surge of listings in the winter. We aren’t going to hit 20k this year, it’s probably unlikely now, but we don’t need to. Sell-list ratio is in the dumps. I can’t *WAIT* to see the Richmond stats at the end of this month. The REBGV is going to have to work extra… Read more »
VHB
Member
VHB
Jul-2012	
Total days	21
Days elapsed so far	15
Weekends / holidays	8
Days missing	0
Days remaining	6
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	94
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	206
SALES	
Sales so far	1636
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	565
Projected month end total	2201
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	3639
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1237
Projected month end total	4876
Sell-list so far	45.0%
Projected month-end sell-list	45.1%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of July 23, 2012	19279
Current MoI at this sales pace	8.76
TPFKAA
Guest
TPFKAA

Wow, sales are off a cliff! Still looking like the year of the bear! Start practicing that sympathetic look for all the people you warned but who didn’t listen.

ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve

Record low sales in July 2008 were 2174.

With only 6 days left, it appears if we average less than around 80 sales per day, we will break that record.

patriotz
Member

No Toronto condo bubble, RBC says

As usual, the texbook criterion for determining a bubble – price versus earnings (rental value) – somehow escaped scrutiny.

McLovin
Guest
McLovin

Sales are bad but inventory is stubborn. 20K seems like a while off yet.

We all know things are bad and getting worse. That said I am not sensing panic among the masses.

ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve

Date List Sold
12.07.03 304 116
12.07.04 324 165
12.07.05 281 112
12.07.06 233 82

12.07.09 278 158
12.07.10 266 77
12.07.11 222 134
12.07.12 216 115
12.07.13 236 99

12.07.16 248 165
12.07.17 211 156
12.07.18 214 100
12.07.19 193 87
12.07.20 212 61

12.07.23 201 86

yvr2zrh
Member
Did not mean to Pre-empt PaulB on the daily sales – I suppose he will post his normal daily post. Here’s the other trends. 1.) We are def. below 2011. We may go below 2008. Based on last week average, expected to be 2008. 2.) SFH sales falling off a cliff and down 25% over last year and 10% from last month at least. 3.) Attached impacted by change in rules – here was where the bump was most impacted. However, if all sales go as they are now – we may still have attached be below 2008. Sigh – what a trend – – back in 2008/2009 – the govt’s of the world pulled out all the liquidity stops. So we pumped this thing up. Now – the amunition is limited if there at all. MOI is going to… Read more »
paulb
Member

New Listings 201
Price Changes 166
Sold Listings 86
TI:19279

http://www.paulboenisch.com

ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve

@ZRH2YVR:

Those numbers are *** SO BAD ***. Unbelievable. 82 f’ing sales? You kidding me? For a Monday? This market is f*cked. I was expecting 110-120 today minimum. If this keeps up, we could see 50-60 sales a day by week-end.

ZRH2YVR – Are we projected to have worse sales than July 2011 yet based on the 7 day moving average? MOI must be above 9 by now. Things are crashing hard.

ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve

Wow ZRH… you read my mind.

ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve

Anyone have the sales numbers for today?

yvr2zrh
Member

Today is Monday – all day.
There were 82 sales today of which
33 were from prior to July 10.
There were 49 sales posted where the sale date was after July 9.
For those keeping score, since July 9 there have been exactly 1,000 sales post and 799 related to pre-July 9 sales and 201 were for post July 9.

We are seeing the pre July 9 sales drop off and the post July-9 sales creep upwards.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

seriously, who the hell would spend a million dollars to live in Richmond?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Sales today look as quiet as Friday.

To put that into the proper context: “Sales today look as quiet as Friday.”