Friday Free-for-all!
Hey, guess what? You made it to the end of another work week. It’s friday and that means it’s time for us to kick back with our open topic discussion thread for the weekend. Here are a few links to get the conversation started:
-Will the US outpace Canadian growth?
-The housing bubble makes us rich
-Flying too close to the sun?
-Vancouver slides, Toronto ‘balanced’
-Commercial RE cheaper to buy
-A campaign based on video games
-Mondo condo listings
-Updated Real estate bubble chart book
-Consumer debt growing slower
-What to make of new HPI?
-Olympic plunge in London prices
-Comment formatting tips
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
July 20th, 2012 at 12:31 am 1
Instead of saying first – I will say
Thursday’s sales – 85
of which 27 were post July 9
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July 20th, 2012 at 12:39 am 2
@ZRH2YVR:
Thanks for your updates. That is still a lot of pre-July 9th sales
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July 20th, 2012 at 1:51 am 3
@ZRH2YVR:
ZRH2YVR – Those stats are downright shocking. This is going to get bad quickly if these numbers keep up. Sales are trending downward big time. MOI sky rocketed up. If we see these trends continue for the final 8 business days of the month, we may come close to the 2008 lows. What a mess. Realtors will probably blame the poor weather, or maybe the London olympics – keeping people indoors? Worth a laugh anyways.
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July 20th, 2012 at 2:16 am 4
Looking at an old Mish post:
“In what sense of the imagination is that house worth over $400K? One listing does not a city make but some listings I looked at in Toronto and Vancouver are as silly as prices in California or Florida.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2006/06/bubble-trouble-in-canada-and-spain.html
Well I guess the joke’s on him (and us) because 3 bedroom houses on that block now start at 1.2 million dollars. There is little change if you price it in gold. Lesson learned anyone?
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July 20th, 2012 at 2:34 am 5
@Navin R. Johnson: ” That is still a lot of pre-July 9th sales”
I don’t know that it’s so much that there are still a lot of pre-July 9th sales. The bigger deal with ZRH2YVR’s numbers is that there are so few AFTER July 9th. Normally at this point we would be seeing more sales from the previous 7 days. But we’re not. Which, as ScubaSteve points out, bodes not very well for sales numbers for the rest of the month.
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July 20th, 2012 at 4:52 am 6
Guess it could be worse, we could live in Colorado. Terrible news coming out on CNN right now about 14+ people dead in a movie theatre shooting at the premiere of The Dark Knight Rises. Unrealted to RE, but none the less, consuming media today…
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July 20th, 2012 at 4:57 am 7
@ScubaSteve:
Yahoo, in their usual degree of on-the-ball-ness, still has the big banner ads for “The Dark Knight RIses” on either side of their home page which leads with the Denver story.
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July 20th, 2012 at 5:08 am 8
@rp1:
“”If you are looking for a bubble, don’t point to Alberta,” said Richard Corriveau, regional economist for the Prairies with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.”
Prices in Alberta crashed one year later.
Whatever you may think of his views on other topics Mish has always been one of the most prescient commentators on the global RE bubble, as well as one of the most entertaining.
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July 20th, 2012 at 6:02 am 9
Don Campbell : Now Is The Time To Get Real About Real Estate
I just liked the title.
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July 20th, 2012 at 7:31 am 10
Regarding the Dark Knight Rises Batman shooting:
Real estate bears often point out price differentials between the US and Canada that show how much more value you get when you buy US real estate compared to Canadian real estate. Heck, I remember seeing that Paula Abdul’s mansion in California was selling for the same price as a crack shack in Vancouver.
It is tempting to move to the US with these price differentials. But the one thing that keeps me away from the US is the gun violence – and the random nature of it. These random rampage public shootings just don’t seen to happen in Canada (knock on wood). I mean, in the states, you can get shot dead just going to the movie theatre to see the latest batman movie. That doesn’t happen in Canada. Toronto and Vancouver do have gun violence, but it’s mainly drug dealers/gang members shooting each other. Yes there have been a few tragic cases here in Canada in which innocent bystanders were accidentally shot in the cross fire between gang members. But I can’t remember a case in Canada in which a mad man just opened fire on a crowd of random strangers in a public place. That has happened several times in the USA: Colombine, a remember a story about a guy shooting random strangers in a donut shop, postal workers shooting their coworkers, etc. There is no rhyme or reason to gun violence in the US so that keeps me away, even for vacations.
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July 20th, 2012 at 7:34 am 11
Just as I posted that I thought of the Montreal Massacre, which was a public rampage shooting of strangers. Okay, so it’s happened once in Canada. We’re not really safe here either. But I think we’re way safer still in Canada compared to the US simply because there are fewer guns here.
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July 20th, 2012 at 7:41 am 12
Are you kidding me?
By coincidence, I’m in Denver right now.
You are not going to ever visit the U.S. because you are scared of a random shooting?
I’m amazed you have the courage to ever leave your home!
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July 20th, 2012 at 7:49 am 13
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: “But the one thing that keeps me away from the US is the gun violence – and the random nature of it.”
Yes we never see that in Canada
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/07/19/toronto-scarborough-street-party-shooting.html
“Politicians are under pressure to curb the gun violence that has claimed four lives in Toronto this week”
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July 20th, 2012 at 8:09 am 14
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs:
Maybe if we just incinerated these fuckers when they are caught, instead of imprisoning them and trying to ‘rehabilitate’ them we could rid society of vermin. The Montreal Shooter who killed intelligent, young women is still alive eating three meals a day and watching TV at our expense as is Barnardo.
Some bleeding hearts even want them released so they can pass their warped genes on. I say give the families of the victims a blunt knife and let them decide what happens.
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July 20th, 2012 at 8:17 am 15
@Anonymous #13
Yes, there have been several high profile public shootings in Toronto recently. But I believe those have all been targeted shootings. A gang member was targeting another gang member in a public place. Although very serious, that is different from the random shooting of strangers like what happened in Colorado. Although even with these targeted shootings innocent people can get caught in the cross fire.
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July 20th, 2012 at 8:20 am 16
such short memories–happens more than we want to remember
http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/12/15/alberta-rcmp-close-highway-to-investigate-murder-multiple-deaths/
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July 20th, 2012 at 8:24 am 17
I just want to say that in my comment #10, I think I was wrong. I want to take it back.
I can think of at least 3 public shootings of strangers in Canada. There was the Dawson College shooting in Montreal in 2006. There was the Fabrikant shooting spree in Concordia University in 1992. Also in Montreal, there was the Ecole Polytechnique shooting of female students in 1989.
There was also that guy in Vancouver recently who had a hit list of targets, such as his landlord (okay, so that was targeted, but targeted at innocent people unconnected to crime, so it has a semi-random component)
Okay, so these tragedies can and do happen in Canada. I WAS WRONG!!! I guess when one’s sense of public safety is threatened, one comes up with rationalizations to make one feel safe. I think that’s what I was doing.
Having said that, I think if we look at the statistics we will see gun violence is far higher in the US than in Canada. This is one of the reasons I prefer to live in Canada — we don’t have a constitutional right to bear arms.
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July 20th, 2012 at 8:33 am 18
From wikipedia:
“The United States has the highest rate of gun related injuries (not deaths per capita) among developed countries, though they also have the highest rate of gun ownership and highest rate of officers.”
Firearm homicide rate per 100,000 population:
Canada: 0.54
USA: 2.97
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence
So yes, the USA does have a much bigger problem with gun violence than does the US. That is reason for me to avoid visiting/living in the USA. I don’t want to be in a country that has such a massive gun problem. That is my choice. I would even be willing to pay more for real estate in a country with gun control and fewer instances of gun violence (although not as much more as the current RE price differentials between Canada and US).
HAVING SAID THAT, I WANT TO REITERATE I WAS WRONG TO SUGGEST RANDOM UNTARGETED SHOOTINGS OF STRANGERS IN PUBLIC PLACES DO NOT HAPPEN IN CANADA. Clearly, they have happened here.
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July 20th, 2012 at 8:34 am 19
correction:
“the USA does have a much bigger problem with gun violence than does the US”
should read:
“the USA does have a much bigger problem with gun violence than does Canada”
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July 20th, 2012 at 8:45 am 20
Even when I admit I was wrong, I get voted down. How many times do you see people outright say they were wrong on this blog! I even gave an explanation for my poor logic: a desire to feel safe in public leads to a false rationalization that random shootings of strangers never happen in Canada.
I WAS WRONG! RANDOM SHOOTINGS OF STRANGERS DO HAPPEN IN CANADA. I ADMIT I WAS WRONG!
But, you guys have to admit it is a statistical fact that the USA has more gun violence than Canada, by a large margin. This includes targeted and untargeted shootings. You guys also have to admit there is something qualitatively different between what happened in Colorado last night and the recent gun violence in Toronto. Although both are very tragic–the Toronto shooting were gang members/drug dealers shooting other gang members in public places. Although very scary, that is slightly less scary to me than someone just shooting a crowd of strangers they have never met before. There is a huge difference between those two scenarios. The difference is, if you keep your nose clean, if you don’t become a drug dealer or a gang member, you reduce your chances of getting shot. But there is nothing you can do to prevent yourself from being shot my someone who is just shooting people randomly for seemingly no reason, people he has never even met before. There is a powerlessness in that second scenario.
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July 20th, 2012 at 8:57 am 21
Real estate, folks.
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July 20th, 2012 at 9:05 am 22
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs:
Hahaha well there is definitely no one who would doubt Canada having less gun violence than the US (there has to be some sense behind The Increasing Trend of U.S. Immigration to Canada), we also have higher taxes, better health insurance, education is equally bad in both countries and our RE is being consumed in the exact same way it did in US three four years before.
Buy you have got a point!
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July 20th, 2012 at 9:13 am 23
Re: the first article, its title – “Dodging housing bubble could cost Canadian economy its dominance” – initially suggests special interests over responsible journalism but the text is far subtler. It lays out Canada’s ‘dominance’ was thanks to government and housing stimulus, as was Harper’s majority victory. The underlying message comes through loud and clear. Clever writing.
The comment section dispenses with subtlety. It appears the public no longer has the patience to dance around the obvious.
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July 20th, 2012 at 9:13 am 24
Here’s the total so far through yesterday.
Total Post July 9 Sales through yesterday (8 sales days).
46 detached and 70 attached for 116 sales. I will try to keep posting until the Pre July 10 sales are not significant. I have given only days 6-8 details. In days 1 through 5, there were only 33 Post July 9 sales.
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July 20th, 2012 at 9:17 am 25
@ZRH2YVR
I quite appreciate your numbers. Thanks for posting them. I wish I could get access to the raw data like you can.
A quick question — if you were to take say June 19th (or May 19th), what proportion of sales reported on that day would have been post June 9th? I just wonder if it is usual for sales to be reported with such a lag. It would make it easier to believe that the new rules are having a serious impact.
Another way to look at it would be to use a rolling-window of sales prior to and post July 9th by date of sale.
Personally, I think that the biggest change for the banks is the scaling back of covered-bonds. So I would also look at the 20% plus downpayment sales data if one could. The relative decline in this segment versus the decline in the less than 20% downpayment might be an indication of which CMHC change is having the biggest impact.
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July 20th, 2012 at 9:24 am 26
@VHB, ive been following these daily stats ever since the mortgage rule changes. I was about to ask a similar question before I saw your post this morning, so it looks like you may know the answer. Is this usual that such a large percentage of sales occured 2 weeks prior? To me it seems high, but I have no context to judge it against. For a relevant comparison I would need to know what the sales distribution was like in say July 2011? Any idea if this is normal?
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July 20th, 2012 at 9:25 am 27
“…education is equally bad in both countries”.
No. It’s not. Public education in the US is substandard compared to Canada.
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July 20th, 2012 at 9:40 am 28
@Boombust: “No. It’s not. Public education in the US is substandard compared to Canada.”
Quoted from the Encyclopedia of Erroneous Canadian facts. Other notable quotes from the same publication:
“Health care is free in Canada, but not in the US”
“American beer is weaker than Canadian Beer”
“Wealthy immigrants prefer Canada as a destination”
“Prices aren’t really any cheaper in the US than they are in Canada” (that’s my personal favorite).
etc, etc, etc.
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July 20th, 2012 at 9:42 am 29
Don’t you just love west coast summer days?
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July 20th, 2012 at 9:59 am 30
#25 Shriller
It’s not possible to get the data to check. Anecdotally however, this is a typical “tail”. As I posted early last week, this is normal and it has always taken 2-4 weeks for an actual sale to post.
Thus, the change in mortgage rules can not be immediately identified but will blend into the daily stats over the 4-6 weeks following. I would expect that by the end of next week, we should be down to only 10-20 pre july 9 sales per day through the end of the month.
For the record, the REBGV stats are based on the day the sale posted so are always really 1/2 month behind on average.
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July 20th, 2012 at 10:05 am 31
Speaking of Mish, more news on China.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/07/job-losses-and-unemployment.html
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July 20th, 2012 at 10:15 am 32
@Boombust:
Not true. The public school system in the US (and it’s really 51 public school systems, though there is a Federal Dept. of Education that sets some country-wide standards) has both the best and the worst schools in the country. In survey after survey, US parents are overwhelmingly satisfied with the public school their child attends. The problem with public education in the US is the “savage inequalities” (as Jonathan Kozol put it) in funding from school district to school district. In one of his case studies, he found a funding discrepancy within San Antonio of 20:1 between an upper-class district and an inner-city district. The incoming freshman classes at Harvard, Princeton, etc., are made up of a large majority of students who graduated from a public school.
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July 20th, 2012 at 10:25 am 33
@oneangryslav2:
The wide variation in standards in itself means that the US system is substandard compared to Canada. Much more student potential is lost at the low end than is gained at the high end. Beyond a certain point you really don’t get much more out of the students by spending more money on them.
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July 20th, 2012 at 10:42 am 34
“Quoted from the Encyclopedia of Erroneous Canadian facts.”
So, what’s your point? Go live there if it’s so great.
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July 20th, 2012 at 11:07 am 35
Van East SFH still the fastest growing inventory in regions I monitor (doesn’t include Richmond). Fastest growing segment? 500K-999K. Gotta get in under the 1MM mark for CMHC, baby!
Re: What is ‘typical’ distribution of sales posting? See ZRH2YVR for the answer. As he said, most are posted in first 2 weeks.
From all I’ve seen I have a serious inkling we’ll average <=80 sales/day over the rest of July….
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July 20th, 2012 at 11:16 am 36
@oneangryslav2:
Spoken from the ” trenches. ” Although it’s up to the teacher to provide a dynamic educational experience, being a great learner is pretty much intrinsic. You can throw a high achiever into almost any environment and they will thrive.
Look at all you guys, both bearish or bullish, you have the desire… You search out the info…. Many of the buyers we currently see sure don’t.
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July 20th, 2012 at 11:26 am 37
@VHB: Things are getting mighty quiet over at Realestatetalks. I think people are taking vacations…
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July 20th, 2012 at 11:40 am 38
@jesse:
Yeah, I’ve noticed that too, Jesse. Sign of the times, eh?
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July 20th, 2012 at 11:41 am 39
“The problem with public education in the US is the “savage inequalities”…
I rest my case.
Ditto for US healthcare.
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July 20th, 2012 at 11:44 am 40
@Boombust: “So, what’s your point? Go live there if it’s so great.”
Good answer! I hear they have better fish and chips in England than in Canada, I think I’ll move there.
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July 20th, 2012 at 11:54 am 41
@Navin R. Johnson: I’m surprised you would claim to visit RET. I’ve already admitted occasional visits there, much like I would admit visiting a brothel, but that’s another story. I would have thought most of us would rather keep it discreet.
On that subject check out the latest discussion “over there”
http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=115334&start=225#p303816
If I had a million monkeys and a million typewriters I would never begin to come close to being able to reproduce RET.
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July 20th, 2012 at 12:15 pm 42
@jesse:
Oh how I miss the RETard board.
Monkeys can do better than this.
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July 20th, 2012 at 12:39 pm 43
@jesse
Unfortunately, my other secret’s out. I particularly get a kick out of this Eyesthebye character. Clearly delusional or maybe just one of Ozzie’s personas….
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July 20th, 2012 at 12:39 pm 44
@Boombust: “No. It’s not. Public education in the US is substandard compared to Canada.”
At the university level, Canada’s universities are outclassed by several US public universities. Some that come to mind: UC Berkeley, U Penn, UCSD, Georgia Tech, U Michigan, U Washington, UT Austin, UCLA…
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July 20th, 2012 at 12:43 pm 45
Lest we forget Robert ‘Willie’ Pickton. No guns involved that we know of, but about as sick and twisted individual I can imagine. The fact that he was home grown right here in our backyard makes it all the more sickening.
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July 20th, 2012 at 12:47 pm 46
Well, at least there’s some news we can all cheer:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/07/19/bc-monty-robinson-sentencing.html
I would have been extra happy if Robinson happened to be on vacation down in Denver, catching the latest blockbuster flick…
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July 20th, 2012 at 12:48 pm 47
“Good answer! I hear they have better fish and chips in England than in Canada, I think I’ll move there”
Good. You can cram them up your ass..
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July 20th, 2012 at 12:54 pm 48
“But, you guys have to admit it is a statistical fact that the USA has more gun violence than Canada, by a large margin.”
Yes, I think that is probably true.
However, I would very happily live in the US rather than Canada (and if it weren’t for family/friends connections in Vancouver, I would be doing so). These headline-grabbing, random acts of gun-related violence would not deter me from visiting or living in the US because:
(1) It is significantly more likely that I will die from a car crash or cancer than from gun violence. Who knows, maybe moving to the US, switching from conventional to organic fruit and buying a Volvo might actually increase my life expectancy.
(2) In most areas of the US that I’ve visited, the unsafe neighbors are surprisingly segregated from the safe neighborhoods. (In contrast to, say, Rio de Janiero.) The safe neighborhoods are pretty darn safe.
(3) You can’t realistically protect yourself from crazy people. Random violent acts in safe neighborhoods are unpredictable and they can happen in any country.
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July 20th, 2012 at 12:57 pm 49
Had the pleasure of hearing a radio news broadcast boasting about how Jimi Hendrix’s *grandparents* live/lived in Vancouver. Oh. wow. I mean, really? Is that how lame Vancouver’s self-identity depression has become? Jimi Hendrix’s grandparents are considered something grand to boast about?
Its sad,embarassing, to see and hear Vancouver MSM always trying so hard to grasp and clutch at any seeming validation of the city’s supposed World Class status. Obviously Vancouver’s MSM isn’t yet itself convinced of the city’s world class status, because if so they wouldn’t have to keep validating it in their headlines.
In perpetually sunny cities, the MSM doesn’t print front-page articles proclaiming, “OMG! Look, it is going to be sunny today!”. Likewise, in truly world class cities, the MSM doesn’t print front-page articles akin to saying, “OMG! Look, more proof we’re world class! The Best Place on Earth!”. Can you imagine the MSM doing that in New York or London? If so, the readers would respond, “Yes, and the sky is blue. And water is wet. And this paper sucks!”. So why does Vancouvers MSM publish those stories? Why are these stories still news, unless nobody’s convinced we’re World Class?
In REAL world class cities, the MSM hardly reacts to being in top-ten lists. Can you imagine Tokyo or Los Angeles regularly tripping all over itself for appearing published on some no-name study/list? Of course not. Having lived in truly world-class cities, I can tell you that real world class cities don’t need to validate themselves like Vancouver constantly tries to. To be sure, ANY organization/magazine can publish a “ranked” list of whatever, especially if said publication/study wants continued (advertising or monetary) support from some given target markets/cities. I will bet you dollars to donuts that before Vancouver started appearing in those given lists/studies, 99.999% of Vancouverites had never of those lists/studies before. That they had never heard of them is because they are no-name lists/studies! (As an aside..I often chuckle at how many companies I deal with manage to regularly win no-name awards from sources nobody has ever heard of before).
If the city of Vancouver was a person, it would be somebody with huge self-esteem problems, always and obviously trying to hard to validate him/herself as belonging to the “in” crowd… but instead coming off as a very fake, desperate, insecure-looking creature.
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July 20th, 2012 at 1:06 pm 50
And who is Jimi Hendrix?
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July 20th, 2012 at 1:26 pm 51
@gokou3:
“And who is Jimi Hendrix?”
Depends on who you ask.
If you were to ask a Realtor, he is somebody for whom now is a great time to buy a home/condo in Vancouver, before he is priced out forever (Nevermind that he’s been dead for years, but let’s not judge Realtors for that— they’re desperate right now, and anwyays there’s only so much stuff that could be packed into their 5-week training course)
If you were to ask the Vancouver MSM, Jimi Hendrix was famous person who had a parent that had two parents who now now may possibility live something in Vancouver. Ergo Vancouver is the “Best Place on Earth”; Quod est demonstratum.
If you ask me, he was a great musician. And he probably has lots of relatives still around, that live in many places, some even (*gasp*) mundane.
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July 20th, 2012 at 1:44 pm 52
Since we are completely off topic, can someone help me plan my next trip?
What’s the violence potential and safety issues traveling Cuba solo?
Alguien?
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July 20th, 2012 at 1:46 pm 53
Thanks ZRH2YVR for the response. I guess by early August we’ll be able to do a pre-change post-change analysis. It will be interesting to see what’s going to happen.
I’m also kind of curious to see how many current listings are because of `trading up.’ If some recent buyers purchased with the intent to sell their previous place, then more listings may yet come online. If they only obtained bridge financing then a great many of them may soon be unable to finance both properties. This could force them to sell the newer house too, likely at a loss or else declare bankruptcy. This could be tinder for the match.
Cheers
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July 20th, 2012 at 2:13 pm 54
@shriller:
Can someone also explain the significance of the Dec 31 “exceptions deadline” for the old mortgage rules? Does it mean some of the sales we see until Dec 31 will still be old 30-yr mortgages?
“If your application does not conform to the new insured mortgage guidelines, however, you’ll have to close by December 31, 2012.”
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/06/20-observations-on-the-new-mortgage-rules.html
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July 20th, 2012 at 2:37 pm 55
@VMD@work: “Does it mean some of the sales we see until Dec 31 will still be old 30-yr mortgages?”
This is from my understanding. Someone can clarify if this is incorrect.
A sale is recorded when the contract is signed and the contract can have subject clauses that would need to be removed before the sale is finalized. When subjects are removed that is when the sale shows up in MLS. Sales close (i.e. title is transferred) some time after a finalized sale, sometimes months after.
The CMHC changes mean you have to have a sales contract in place by July 9th and the insurance policy application submitted to CMHC by then to sneak in with the old rules. CMHC will process the application and approve or reject. Sales that are making these applications will most likely have subject to financing clauses and will therefore wait for CMHC to clear the loan before the sales are finalized. When that occurs — and I assume CMHC has a big backlog it’s still working through — the financing subject will be removed and the sale booked in MLS. But the closing date — the date at which the mortgage term starts and title is transferred — can be anywhere up until December 31st 2012. It will nonetheless be booked as a sale in MLS when the sale is finalized.
Again, if anyone knows that this is not correct please let us know.
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July 20th, 2012 at 3:06 pm 56
But very few, if any, homeowners would allow a closing date that far away. So we won’t be seeing pre-July 9th sales of any significant into August and beyond.
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July 20th, 2012 at 3:08 pm 57
Left wing discussion of Vancouver’s housing bubble:
http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/mainlander/2012/07/re-financing-housing-bubble-strategies-neoliberal-state
As an NDPer I especially enjoyed this read. Good points made about how the privatization/redevelopment of social housing (Little Mountain, Heather Place) are carried out to feed the housing bubble.
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July 20th, 2012 at 3:14 pm 58
@ScubaSteve: Did you read my comment? Closing dates are not what are booked in the MLS system… unless you know different…?
I’m hearing some scattered reports of long closing dates being negotiated to allow for slack in sale of existing residence. In one case I’m familiar with the closing date was set for October for a sale in June for that very reason: the seller did not want a “subject to sale of existing residence” clause put in but during negotiation agreed to a later closing date in lieu. In a hot market I would expect that’s less common but now, for some properties, any offer is presented and considered.
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July 20th, 2012 at 3:16 pm 59
@jesse
That is my understanding too. Though I agree with Steve that sellers have no incentive to agree to subject to financing deals that long. I don’t think CMHC will take too long to process the backlogs. I believe they pretty much rely on the banks to do it themselves. The penalty for doing it improperly is voiding the insurance and banks have no incentive to want this to happen.
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July 20th, 2012 at 3:16 pm 60
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs:
“In the four years since the financial crisis of 2008 brought a North American-wide collapse in housing prices…”
If I had a dollar for every writer who got this causality wrong I could buy… well a “world-class” hot-dog anyway.
Good read once you get past the first sentence though.
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July 20th, 2012 at 3:17 pm 61
This table is crazy!
http://www.pacificapartners.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Google-City-Rankings-for-Housing-Bubble-and-Real-Estate-Bubble.png
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July 20th, 2012 at 3:24 pm 62
@shriller: “Though I agree with Steve that sellers have no incentive to agree to subject to financing deals that long”
Steve mentioned “closing”, not subject lengths; maybe he meant the latter. The two are not the same and should not be confused.
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July 20th, 2012 at 4:33 pm 63
In what kind of twisted reality is 1.6 million described as “affordable”.
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reb/3152412142.html
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July 20th, 2012 at 4:38 pm 64
@Boombust: ““Good answer! I hear they have better fish and chips in England than in Canada, I think I’ll move there”
Good. You can cram them up your ass..”
Then they don’t taste as good.
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July 20th, 2012 at 4:41 pm 65
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: “Good points made about how the privatization/redevelopment of social housing (Little Mountain, Heather Place) are carried out to feed the housing bubble.”
Yes it would have been nice if we could have kept those old rat infested moldy buildings and prevented new privately paid for social housing buildings being built. Yes that sound like an NDPer to me.
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July 20th, 2012 at 4:49 pm 66
Not strictly on topic, but at least it’s not about gun violence.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/07/20/report-subprime-private-student-loan-market-explodes-to-150-billion/
“There are striking similarities between stories of the private student loan market and stories of mortgage market in the years leading up to the financial crisis,” Richard Cordray, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, told reporters Thursday. “Before the financial crisis, some lenders in both markets engaged in aggressive marketing and risky underwriting. They also originated loans for immediate sale.”
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July 20th, 2012 at 4:57 pm 67
@Anonymous:
One of the things I find particularly interesting about the numerous global housing bubbles (and the larger global financial crisis of which the bubbles are a part) is how their causes can’t easily fit the traditional left/right dichotomy. Two of the blogs I read – Mish and TAE – are about as far apart politically as you can get, and yet they somehow come to the same conclusions regarding the causes of the bubbles / crises. That fact says a lot about “the nature of the enemy”, if you will.
Recall that the single largest contributor to Obama’s successful election campaign was Goldman Sachs. And the largest contributor to McCain’s campaign was … drumroll … Goldman Sachs. A similar trend can be found going all the way down to local politics – our Vancouver city councillors regularly receive a large donations from local developers and related FIRE industry types who don’t care which party wins – as long as they remember who funded their campaigns when it comes to policy decisions.
In my opinion, bashing the left or right obscures the fact that the the old paradigm no longer applies, and does little to illuminate the true causes of the problem. Which is exactly what the engineers of this mess want us to do.
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July 20th, 2012 at 5:39 pm 68
@Anonymous: Well however we’ve done it, seems like we’ve done a very good job of preventing “new privately paid for social housing buildings being built” at Little Mountain.
Good job!
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July 20th, 2012 at 5:55 pm 69
New Listings 212
Price Changes 123
Sold Listings 61
TI:19287
http://www.paulboenisch.com
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July 20th, 2012 at 6:01 pm 70
@Yalie
What are the true causes of the problem?
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July 20th, 2012 at 6:06 pm 71
Sales projection is falling. So long as sales average under 89 in the 7 remaining July days, we’ll be under 2008 sales level to take the worst sales record since at least 2001. Listings aren’t terribly high though.
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July 20th, 2012 at 6:30 pm 72
@paulb:
Yep, sounds about right.
I think double digit sales will be the norm from now on.
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July 20th, 2012 at 6:31 pm 73
@paulb: and reality resumes…
Gloria, I think you’re headed for a breakdown.
Gloria, don’t you think you’re fallin’?
If everybody wants you, why isn’t anybody callin’?
Feel your innocence slipping away, don’t believe it’s comin’ back soon
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=355Fk8drgZE
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July 20th, 2012 at 6:35 pm 74
@VHB:
Thanks for posting these stats. The MOI is getting demolished and the moving average plunging. The sell-list is also plunging. At this rate, it looks like it is going to give 2008 a run for its money!
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July 20th, 2012 at 6:43 pm 75
“One of the things I find particularly interesting about the numerous global housing bubbles (and the larger global financial crisis of which the bubbles are a part) is how their causes can’t easily fit the traditional left/right dichotomy.”
Unfortunately any government takes the bait on offering cheap easy credit to temporarily stimulate the economy and increase government revenue.
The Little Mountain project is a good one in that it takes decrepit social housing that requires replacement and brings in a developer to rebuild it at no cost. The developer gets to densify and put in condos. This type of thing is one of the few benefits of a housing bubble. The fools that will buy the condos at inflated prices pay for the social housing in the end. Little Mountain is taking forever because the City is trying to build an environmental utopia kind of like the Olympic Village but there is no forced timeline which the OV had. Lets just hope the developer doesn’t go bankrupt this time.
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July 20th, 2012 at 6:53 pm 76
@VHB: low sales, mediocre new listings, record-high existing stale inventory = realtors’ worst nightmare?
Just had a hardworking realtor (J Liu) ring the doorbell 15 minutes ago asking if I’m looking to sell. He was all suited up, going up to all the houses in the neighborhood ringing door bells at 6:30pm on a Friday evening…
Starving realtor, literally ; )
All jokes aside, I commend him for his diligence..
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July 20th, 2012 at 7:32 pm 77
@VMD:
oh and I said, sorry dude, I rent.
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July 20th, 2012 at 7:32 pm 78
@VMD:
If nothing is selling, then why is this guy looking for something to sell?
Is he new at this?
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July 20th, 2012 at 7:39 pm 79
@Best place on meth:
not sure.. don’t see any active listings on his website..
http://www.jamieliu.ca/
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July 20th, 2012 at 7:39 pm 80
It feels like 2008.
Spring saw the market top, summer saw sales and prices falling hard, fall saw the financial crisis.
I wonder what will happen this fall?
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July 20th, 2012 at 8:17 pm 81
@Best place on meth:
It feels like 2008 but it isn’t – it’s much worse. There will be no government stimulus or ultra low interest rates to pull us out of this one. By 2013, telling people you are a homeowner will no longer elicit the usual response of “Oh wow. That must be nice”. Instead, it will elicit a sympathetic “Oh. Well, hopefully the markets get better”. Renters will be envied.
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July 20th, 2012 at 8:19 pm 82
The percentage of post July 9 sales should be around 50% or better by now, and should climb over 90% by the end of next week.
Just a reminder of the last 4 days of sales:
137
100
87
61
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July 20th, 2012 at 8:40 pm 83
HAM Strikes Back (with music)
With a hand-painted mural of Venice under the lid, the one-of-a-kind $189,000 Fazioli Piano flown from Italy this week to Richmond reveals not everyone in the Lower Mainland is struggling to pay the rent.
http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/News/local/2012/07/19/20006666.html
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July 20th, 2012 at 8:44 pm 84
@Laibach:
“Bernaschek estimates that half his customers are locals who either own companies or are involved in professions such as realty. The rest, he said, are foreigners, usually Asian, operating businesses in China or Taiwan while living here.”
Poor guy, dependent on the incomes of realtors and money coming from China.
He’s so fucked.
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July 20th, 2012 at 8:58 pm 85
@VMD:
“He was all suited up, going up to all the houses in the neighborhood ringing door bells at 6:30pm on a Friday evening…
….I commend him for his diligence”
I wouldn’t be very happy to have a salesperson of any kind knocking on my door at 6:30pm, much less a Realtor, and on a Friday. His “diligence” translates to unpleasant interruptions to my dinner and/or free time. People are already sick and tired of “diligent” phonecalls from other salespeople (and no, the do-not-call list doesn’t help much).
He should just leave a well-written, informative flyer and not bother people. People can phone them if they’re interested.
Or, we can applause his diligence and encourage more like him to bother everybody.
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July 20th, 2012 at 10:06 pm 86
Total sales on Thursday 61
Of which 36 were post July 9.
152 total sales Post July 9 to date.
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July 20th, 2012 at 10:14 pm 87
Here comes the death spiral at Cosmo 161 W Georgia St:
I am in the market for a 2 bedroom condo as first time buyer in Dt for the past few months. My budget is 500k. I have been watching this building closely.
There are 6 units that are exactly the same layout on MLS. Unit 807, 1608, 1708, 1808, 2108, 2208. Asking price from 575k to 629k.
807 had open house two weeks ago (I viewed) and was the lowest priced at that time. Now 2208 entered the market last week and priced lowest. 807 (V949770) just reduced it’s price to beat 2208 (V962354) this week.
At this rate, I hope they will drop to $500k by Nov. this year.
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July 20th, 2012 at 10:19 pm 88
Hey everyone,
I’m in Regina right now. This place is still going through their hot housing phase right now. Anyway I hope to get some time to post some stats tomorrow for everyone. Glad to see the sales tank.
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July 20th, 2012 at 10:37 pm 89
MOI at the “Big 4″. So, watching the market implode from the top, here are the MOI stats for what I will call the Big 4. This is a straight projection based on month to date averages – so – this should get worse by month end (and the numbers in brackets are an estimate of the worst case scenario for month end).
Van West – 13 (15)
Richmond – 20 (22)
West Van – 15 (20)
Burnaby – 9 (10)
There is a marked differnce in Attached and Detached right now. Detached has completely slowed while Attached was the most impacted by the rule changes. Thus, the MOI as a whole, will be higher than last month, this is entirely due to detached as attached is currently lower but projected to be flat at the most by month end.
Remember that at 10 months, prices really can not go up and will fall quickly. At 20, we get into 15% declines within 3-4 months.
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July 20th, 2012 at 10:42 pm 90
@ HFHC
We know they’re running out of land in Regina.
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July 20th, 2012 at 10:58 pm 91
Last few comments on stats on this rainy Sunday morning from Zurich.
Median prices have shown a measurable decrease in past 3 weeks. The amount is about 5% below the 10 week moving average.
Average prices should be slightly down this month althought the past 2 weeks have been 6-9% below the 10 week moving average. So – is this an immediate 5% decrease followed by some further decreases in the next few months? Fearful sellers who are seriously “up” and in the money are those who are most likely to push this market down while the recent purchasers get killed and have that dear-in-headlights look . . .
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July 20th, 2012 at 11:23 pm 92
@G:
Don’t rush Dude, they will be selling around 220K in few years and that’s what’s worth max.
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July 20th, 2012 at 11:33 pm 93
@ZRH2YVR:
Richmond is fucked – no other way to put it.
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July 20th, 2012 at 11:57 pm 94
@Navin R. Johnson:
I used to occasionally post on RET but I lost my password and the moderator wouldn’t let me re-register. I have a feeling that they were trying to discourage the bears. Now that the bulls have got their comeupance it’s all quiet on the Western front. I still read over there but can’t make any comments, which is probably just as well. I’ve noticed that ETB has started posting properties that have sold below the asking price as great deals for the purchaser. Previously she only posted properties that she cherry picked above asking. One can only assume that that nothing is selling above asking?
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July 21st, 2012 at 12:37 am 95
@Bailing in BC:
RET is a pathetic excuse for a site. Not even worth reading – hasn’t been for a good 4 years. There’s a few other forum threads about the Vancouver bubble. One I have followed is http://forums.redflagdeals.com/vancouver-bubble-road-50-housing-crash-w-monthly-stats-1194032/ which has like 800 replies. Some decent stats there but a lot of idiots too. Someone should start up a forum specifically for Vancouver real estate, maybe vancouvercondo.info ?
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July 21st, 2012 at 2:19 am 96
@Kaul P:
“What are the true causes of the problem?”
David Lewis essentially got the idea (if not recent details) right 40 years ago.
Corporate Welfare Bums.
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July 21st, 2012 at 9:17 am 97
@G: “At this rate, I hope they will drop to $500k by Nov. this year.”
Those units in Cosmo are worth about 250K at best. That is when they are new. Used ones would be worth less.
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July 21st, 2012 at 9:46 am 98
Still can’t give away his condo for $80k less than he paid because it’s still overpriced (been at it for months)
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/rds/reb/3150107973.html
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July 21st, 2012 at 10:05 am 99
@G:
31 condos for sale at Cosmos, all by flippers and speculators.
Those fuckers must be sweating, just wait them out.
Or offer them 20% below asking and when they refuse tell them you’ll be back in a year with a lower offer.
Laugh at them on the way out.
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July 21st, 2012 at 10:25 am 100
Not sure how to explain this but the following listing just came up in my email today:
14638 29TH AV in South Surrey listed for $1,578,000
What makes this odd is that this property sold on April 12, so just a little over 3 months ago, for $1,550,800
Even if they get asking price for this place they’ll take a $100K loss in fees and transfers between the two transactions but oddly enough selling this place right away is probably the smartest thing they could do assuming they aren’t buying another property.
OR… is it possible that the lender killed this deal if possession hasn’t occurred yet? In that case deposits would be lost and the buyer will likely be sued I would assume?
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July 21st, 2012 at 10:26 am 101
Perusing the listings in one of my places of interest and thought it kind of odd that the most expensive house in the search area has a “mortgage helper”
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11993121&PidKey=-1781431908
If you are thinking of buying a place for $2.5M, you better be earning enough and not need a renter in the basement; that is just bizarre.
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July 21st, 2012 at 10:27 am 102
@Anonymous:
” I HAVE A FULLY ASSUMABLE MORTGAGE WITH TD CANADA TRUST AT 2.2% INTEREST, $180,000. FOR 35 YEARS. ”
Assumable that is, providing the buyer comes up with a $98K down payment to meet his asking price of $278K. Or he could settle for $225K with a $45K down payment (20%, needed to keep that uninsured 35 year amort). Or he could take 5% down and the buyer would need a 25 year insured mortgage… uh oh those payments don’t look too good.
Where is Scam Good when you need him?
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July 21st, 2012 at 10:34 am 103
Is anyone having problem accessing the BC assessment website?
http://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/
I found two townhouses in my other search area that are currently listed for less than they were listed for in 2008 and I want to check if these are underwater:
V962659
V961558
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July 21st, 2012 at 10:48 am 104
@G:
Good for you!
But I am more than willing to wait until the prices drop to $500 per sqft. (In this case, around $430000 for the unit you are looking at)
Even $450 per sqft is entirely possible.
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July 21st, 2012 at 10:57 am 105
@Anonymous: I like how the poster advertises that the “interest” payment on the 35yr mortgage is $600; is the owner only paying the interest on the mortgage?
I’m guessing a lot of speculators new to the game have figured out the absolute minimum they have to pay and bought the max with the expectation that prices would go up. Why pay down the principal if you’re speculating on capital gains.
Last point noted, if this building was built in 2009, why are the pool and jacuzzi not built yet? Bosa isn’t broke so I’m guessing there is something nefarious going on like a lawsuit.
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July 21st, 2012 at 10:59 am 106
@Anonymous: I’d use stronger words than entirely possible and go with 100% probable as the price per sqft moves through $450 and lower.
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July 21st, 2012 at 11:02 am 107
@ Navin R Johnson,
I very occassionally post on RET as well, but merely to rub ETB’s nose in it……I ‘ve noticed she has gone very silent recently. Probably hiding under that rock I suggested she find.
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July 21st, 2012 at 12:58 pm 108
This is the first time I have seen anyone call for a correction of more than 10%… Vancouver around 40%
http://pacificapartners.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Canadian-Housing-Market-Correction.png
Also – you notice this bloomberg article:
“Residential construction was the fastest expanding segment of the economy in the first quarter, according to Statistics Canada data, and was responsible for almost half of Canada’s 1.9 percent annualized growth rate.”- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-20/canada-growth-risks-lagging-u-s-as-exports-cool-economy.html
So if the chart book report is right – we could see a housing correction and just avoid a recession.
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July 21st, 2012 at 1:01 pm 109
@YLTNboomerang: subletting is a personal choice. Not sure why you are beingbso judgmental about it.
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July 21st, 2012 at 1:22 pm 110
@patriotz: “Where is Scam Good when you need him?”
Yeah where is he? The main page of his The Key website has been “under construction” for at least a few weeks. Could be much longer, as I hadn’t checked the site in months.
Other than his fake-ass overseas pages, the only active part seems to be Key Rentals, with a grand total of 14 listings. Yep, providing a service that Craigslist does for free. I’m sure its lucrative.
Someone should drive by 239 East 6th Ave and check for a “For Lease” sign in the window. I would but I’m stuck out in the burbs.
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July 21st, 2012 at 1:46 pm 111
Key Marketing’s twitter account has gone pretty quiet recently as well.
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July 21st, 2012 at 2:31 pm 112
@Anonymous: “So if the chart book report is right – we could see a housing correction and just avoid a recession.”
No way. That half of 1.9% is the growth rate. The current level of building is unsustainable and has been for a decade. We have been creating more dwellings than households every year except 2009. Why? Because of investor demand! When this ends – and it will end terribly – nobody will be building. Construction which is now a huge part of the overall economy will halt, households will double up, and spare dwellings will explode. The current situation is unstable and unsustainable.
The only thing that will help Vancouver is basement suites, because their supply is elastic. If people can get by without the income, they may not rent the suite. They may let relatives move in. I think this will happen a lot.
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July 21st, 2012 at 2:39 pm 113
@YLTNboomerang:
I think at this price point it is more likely that the suite would be for a relative or live in nanny. But even the idea of a $1M house having a basement suite (many of which ARE being used as rental helpers) is absurd if you think about it.
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July 21st, 2012 at 3:35 pm 114
Basement suites are great. I know quite a few bears that have the independence of a suite and the luxury of low/no rent with mom’s cooking included. An easy way to wait for a sane market, some might go insane before the market corrects though.
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July 21st, 2012 at 4:34 pm 115
@an observer: “14638 29TH AV in South Surrey listed for $1,578,000″
I see this all the time. Someone buys a place then decides they don’t like and sell. It could be they discovered a major problem, had a family issue or just didn’t do their homework on the place. Either way it is an expensive lesson with real estate transaction costs being so significant.
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July 21st, 2012 at 4:38 pm 116
@an observer: “14638 29TH AV in South Surrey listed for $1,578,000″
It is listed for 1,688,000
http://www.homelifecloverdale.com/listing/F1120982-14638-29th-av-south-surrey-white-rock-bc-v4p-0b1/
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July 21st, 2012 at 4:38 pm 117
@Anonymous:
That is one of the best reports I’ve seen on Canadian RE so far. Thanks.
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July 21st, 2012 at 4:42 pm 118
@Kaul P:
In a word: debt. Massive, gargantuan, unholy levels of debt accumulated by households and governments across the world that is mathematically impossible to repay.
Understanding the cause of all this debt requires a lot more than one word, and I can hardly do it justice without over-simplifying. But more or less, the root problem is that our politicians have been bought and payed for by wealthy and powerful interests who have benefited enormously from the accumulation of all this debt.
And it comes from both “the left” and “the right”, which is why it’s meaningless to argue that one or the other is to more to blame. Politicians on “the left” get much of their money from unions, and politicians from “the right” get more of it from corporations and banks, but even then there is a lot of overlap, and in the end they are all bribed into making decisions that benefit their campaign contributors at the expense the general public. Which is why we have banks making billions from government loan guarantees (Freddy / Fanny / CMHC) and entire cities in California going broke from massively over-generous defined benefit pension plans (a problem coming soon to Canada – mark my words).
Really want to know why things are the way they are? Just follow the money. Look at who makes the rules, and who pays for them to get elected, and you’ll learn all you need to know about why we’re so fecked right now.
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July 21st, 2012 at 4:53 pm 119
@Yalie:
The BC government is on the hook for municipal pensions, not the individual municipalities.
Medical costs are a major component of DB pensions (both private and public sector) in the US and that’s the biggest reason for pension funding problems there.
Also note that municipal tax revenues in BC are not dependent on property values (as in many US states). The municipalities are also not allowed to run deficits. Also there is no legislated cap on property taxes.
So the good news is that BC municipalities look to be in good fiscal shape going forward, but the bad news is that the provinces and federal government look less so. And that goes for the consumer too, of course.
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July 21st, 2012 at 5:00 pm 120
@patriotz: “So the good news is that BC municipalities look to be in good fiscal shape going forward”
I don;t think so. Lets wait and see once the bubble pops. What it will mean is much higher property taxes which will be reflected in real estate prices.
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July 21st, 2012 at 5:01 pm 121
@patriotz:
sounds like stories like this will become more common..
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/property-taxes-go-way-way-up-in-saskatoon-area-rural-municipality-163142016.html
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July 21st, 2012 at 5:10 pm 122
@patriotz:
Agreed. By “coming soon to Canada” I didn’t mean that our cities were about to go bankrupt (I am aware that pension risks are assumed by the province and not cities), but instead that I think Canadian defined benefit plans will be seeing massive deficits in the near future.
I don’t, however, agree that the US cities got into so much trouble due primarily to skyrocketing medical costs. While these have certainly contributed to the problem, the wildly over-optimistic investment return assumptions are also largely to blame. We are likely entering a protracted deflationary period that could see 1% interest rates for years, yet most of these funds assume returns of 7 or 8 percent. That’s what I think is going cause our own pension meltdown right here in Canada, free healthcare or not.
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July 21st, 2012 at 5:35 pm 123
Thanks Patriotz and Yalie. Great responses.
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July 21st, 2012 at 6:09 pm 124
@VMD:
That’s an urbanization infrastructure issue, shared by many growing urban areas. A similar situation was the main reason why Metro Toronto was created back in the 1950′s. The obvious solution for this problem would simply be to amalgamate with Saskatoon. But that probably would not be acceptable to the people who are complaining about the taxes, as they would like to have their cake (skyrocketing property values) and eat it too (no tax increase).
The housing bubble in Saskatoon may be pushing more people outside the city proper than might otherwise happen, but I don’t think it’s really a bubble problem, rather a growth and planning problem.
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July 21st, 2012 at 6:16 pm 125
@Yalie:
Actually at the federal level all of the above have been banned and only individual contributions are allowed.
At first glance you might wonder why the Conservatives went along with this. The reason is that their contributors are mostly social conservative zealots who are a lot more motivated to contribute than their wimpy left and liberal counterparts. The second punch was made by the Cons after they got their majority – getting rid of government funding based on voter support, which had been a tradoff for getting rid of the other donations.
So there’s more to it than just payoffs from big interest groups.
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July 21st, 2012 at 6:28 pm 126
@Anonymous It is listed for 1,688,000
http://www.homelifecloverdale.com/listing/F1120982-14638-29th-av-south-surrey-white-rock-bc-v4p-0b1/
No, that is the old listing back from April – it was listed at 1,688,000 and sold for $1,550,800. The new listing won’t hit the public MLS for a couple of days, the number is F1218986
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July 21st, 2012 at 7:00 pm 127
@patriotz:
“At first glance you might wonder why the Conservatives went along with this. The reason is that their contributors are mostly social conservative zealots who are a lot more motivated to contribute than their wimpy left and liberal counterparts.”
Studies show left leaning people are less likely to voluntarily part with their money in general, whether it’s for charity, in Europe or here in Canadian politics. Quebeckers donate the least next to Newfies.
(Though they are always keen for the government to take take someone else’s money.)
And is it only social conservatives who are motivated? Surely, it is the hallmark of fiscal conservatives and libertarians that civil society works best when it is voluntary, so wouldn’t they be philosophically geared to private donations?
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July 21st, 2012 at 9:25 pm 128
While driving today in Vancouver I spotted several buses with fresh Marine Gateway on Cambie ads. The question is why would anyone spend money on marketing if the whole project sold out? Is someone not being honest?
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July 21st, 2012 at 10:34 pm 129
Living at home is the best until you save enough to buy without CMHC
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July 21st, 2012 at 11:16 pm 130
@Anonymous:
#127
Got a source for that info., Jack???
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July 21st, 2012 at 11:20 pm 131
@ScubaSteve:
Agreed Scuba. I still like to check in once in a while with RET because it seems to be the only place with hard core bulls. I like to make sure that almost everything they say still sounds like a load of shit. No doubt one day in the distant future one of the bulls there will make a comment that rings true and then it may be time to re consider my stance on RE.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 12:11 am 132
Living at home is the best until you save enough to buy without CMHC
——
Only if you want to be socially retarded…
Clearly, when renting costs one half of home ownership, you cannot save for your down payment….
Get a life and cut the umbilical cord…rent and save up
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July 22nd, 2012 at 4:54 am 133
@Anonymous:
“Surely, it is the hallmark of fiscal conservatives and libertarians that civil society works best when it is voluntary, so wouldn’t they be philosophically geared to private donations?”
To whom? Certainly not the Conservatives, who are neither fiscally conservative nor libertarian.
The closest we have to that at the federal level is the Liberals really.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 5:20 am 134
@patriotz:
“The closest we have to that at the federal level is the Liberals really.”
Had, you mean, when Paul Martin was around. I don’t think Dion, Rae and that young Trudeau fellow quite qualify as fiscally conservative.
Btw, the top four constituencies for donations to the Cons were downtown Toronto and Calgary, West Van and St Pauls, ON. Hardly hotbeds of social conservatism.
The point that the Cons are fiscal conservatives, I concede. They are extinct in Canada.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 6:53 am 135
134 Anonymous Says: “They are extinct in Canada.”
Reagan and Bush Jr both left massive deficits. Clinton (who I detest) didn’t. Conservatives are only against spending on constituents, they class leading spendthrifts elsewhere. That’s why the destruction of our social safety nets by the upcoming crushing federal debt to banks is a double win for Harper. Queue the crocodile tears.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 7:09 am 136
@fixie guy:
“Reagan and Bush Jr both left massive deficits. Clinton (who I detest) didn’t. ”
Mostly a function of economic cycles. Clinton rode a tech boom and the US was plunging into deficits by the time he left office. Bush got the tech crash and 9/11 and then rode the housing the boom with the deficit shrinking every year he was in office in the second term.
And of course spending originates in the congress. Clinton had Gingrich, while Bush had Pelosi.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 8:03 am 137
@136 Anonymous: Far too much factual distortion to waste a nice day debating. Most know the legacy of military spending under Reagan and Bush, that the latter benefited from a bigger bubble than Clinton yet still left shortly after signing TARP. Dot Com popped a year and half before Clinton left office, the budget surplus survived it but not Bush’s election:
http://www.factcheck.org/2008/02/the-budget-and-deficit-under-clinton/
It’s sunny here, looking forward to reading how the US was torpedoed by dishonest minorities and the poor betraying Moody’s and banks during a period of record profits….
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July 22nd, 2012 at 9:04 am 138
@Anonymous:
In the US the fiscal Conservatives have disappeared. The right just want to cut entitlements for the poor and unemployed. Well they better get good electric fences and armed guards of they do.
meanwhile they still want to cut taxes and have a ruiniously expensive war machine and have the Government bail out Goldman Sachs and the Banks when they screw up.
Even if you cut every cent of ‘poor people spending’ you cannot balance the budget without raising taxes, or cutting the military or cutting Medicare.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 9:20 am 139
@frank:
Frank, you must have been living in a cave not to see the near civil war within the GOP over spending. Does the Tea Party ring a bell, the huge influx of young GOP congressmen in 2010, the primary challenges to Lugar and Hatch, the emergence of Scot Walker in Wisconsin?
The GOP is still led by big spending clowns, but it’s the only party with a debate over unsustainable deficits. The Dems haven’t even introduced a budget in three years.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 9:33 am 140
@fixie guy:
” Dot Com popped a year and half before Clinton left office, the budget surplus survived it but not Bush’s election:”
The Nasdaq peaked in March 2000 and Clinton left office on Jan 2001. The crash that saw $5 trillion of equity shredded ran through 2002.
Presidents can control spending (though they never do) but tax receipts are largely a function of the boom-bust economic cycle.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 9:37 am 141
@Anonymous: “but tax receipts are largely a function of the boom-bust economic cycle.”
Or maybe tax receipts are largely a function of the tax rate.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 9:43 am 142
@fixie guy: “Reagan and Bush Jr both left massive deficits. Clinton (who I detest) didn’t.”
Just curious, is there anyone or anything you do like? You seem to detest everyone and everything. It must be tough to get up in the morning.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 9:58 am 143
An entire neighbourhood in Anmore that was recently listing lots / custom homes on the MLS is now a court ordered sale. 9 building lots for $2.5 million. Also interesting that there are a bunch of lots just beside these ones currently listing for around $500K each
The overly ambitious developers are going to start dropping like flies
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=V963415
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July 22nd, 2012 at 9:59 am 144
From Time Magazine quote:
Clinton ushered out the Glass-Steagall Act, which for decades had separated commercial banking from investment banking, and signed the Commodity Futures Modernization Act — which exempted all derivatives, including the now notorious credit-default swaps, from federal regulation. His Administration also loosened housing rules, which put pressure on banks to lend in low-income neighborhoods.
CLINTON STARTED THE FIRE, BUSH ADDED THE ACCELERANT
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July 22nd, 2012 at 10:13 am 145
@an observer: I hope they never get built. That area is beautiful until its covered with rich peoples houses.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 10:20 am 146
@an observer: An entire neighbourhood in Anmore that was recently listing lots / custom homes on the MLS is now a court ordered sale. 9 building lots for $2.5 million. Also interesting that there are a bunch of lots just beside these ones currently listing for around $500K each
___________________________________________________________________
At around 270K each that seems well below what you can buy a lot for anywhere in the lower mainland and that would be a pretty nice spot close to the lake. If a builder does buy it he will then undercut other builders on the houses.
I was recently told by a builder who has been building custom and spec SFHs continuously for decades that for the first time he has nothing on the go right now. He said there is just too many brand new spec houses out there sitting empty for sale. There is not much interest for building lots. And this was before the CMHC changes.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 10:29 am 147
@Meh: “That area is beautiful until its covered with rich peoples houses.”
You would probably be surprised that many of those home owners are not rich. They are just in debt up to their eyeballs.
Now with lots selling at 270K each in the area when we are just starting the crash that area may be very affordable in the near future. Once the trades and builders start dropping their prices in order to keep working building a brand new house in the area may look pretty good for the average family. Of course the used houses will have to be even cheaper in order to sell.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 11:55 am 148
@Anonymous:
Anon The Tea Party is a right wing media construct.
Think about it – we just went through a period of grand larceny by the big, well-connected money. They had to divert the anger from the banks, corporations and wealthy. Viola the Tea Party.
They can whine about the cost of Food Stamps which help 44 Million Americans at a cost of $68 Billion and ignore the $200 Billion dished out to Goldman and hedge funds by the AIG bail-out. Money they might as well have pissed away.
They ignore the fact that the US government government is controlled by big corps and whine about unions and illegal immigrants and the working poor who have been decimated in this recession.
Oh and they believe in the right to bear machine guns and we can see where that ends up.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 12:06 pm 149
Anyone know how the opening sales went yesterday at the SOLO District?
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July 22nd, 2012 at 1:04 pm 150
More supply coming on the market. Saw this one being advertised on a full front page spread on some Chinese newspaper while shopping at Safeway.
http://www.stationsquare.ca/
Burnaby recently allowed 50-60 story heights in Metrotown and Anthem’s going for it. That’s 200-300 units per building. Seems like a lot to bring on the market at one shot. Line up starts in the fall.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 1:28 pm 151
Regarding Station Square, they closed down my families favorite place to eat, Red Robins to get ready for a building that might / hopefully never be built
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July 22nd, 2012 at 2:52 pm 152
SHUT THE FUCK UP YOU FUCKING NERDS
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July 22nd, 2012 at 2:53 pm 153
@an observer:
I’d love to see half of love to see half of Vancouver torn down just before shit hits the fan. Then half the city would be holes in the ground for the next 2 decades, hahaha.
Just a little fantasy of mine
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July 22nd, 2012 at 3:01 pm 154
At YYZ. OMG, not even 20 seconds off the escalator into the international baggage claim and 3 boomers are talking about their YYZ property prices – - – - sounds eerily like Vancouver circa 2010 – - – - I kid you not – these is the first conversation overheard on Canadian soil since I left 23 days ago.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 3:06 pm 155
@an observer: What I’ve been hearing about Station Square is that it hasn’t been profitable for a while. To wit Cave-on Foods has been on notice for a couple of years that they are likely going to close due to low sales volumes. The main theatre being moved to Metropolis was another indication that whole strip was in need of a redo, especially one so close to transit.
JMHO. I’m sure Red Robin’s will open up somewhere else if they think they can make a go of it.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 3:54 pm 156
@jesse:
I agree. Station Square is in need of a facelift.
But the Red Robins has always been busy. I’m sure they will open elsewhere close by.
However, at this stage in the market, 1000 new overpriced units coming on should be hilarious by the time completion rolls around.
Classic bubble project. I guess Burnaby needs its own Olympic Village.
Perhaps we should be taking bets on how many of those towers actually do get completed.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 4:37 pm 157
“We might see a 5% correction, but not a 10% correction” – Ian Watt, Realtor, July 2012
2013: “We might see a 20% correction”
2014: “We might see a 40% correction”
2015: “It’s tanking! Get out while you still can!!!”
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July 22nd, 2012 at 5:26 pm 158
@ crashcow
Anyone trying to make a prediction now is surely doing so with their fingers crossed behind their collective backs.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 6:13 pm 159
@crashcow:
The fallout I’m most looking forward to (other than affordability, obviously) is the mob anger that will be directed to those responsible for the mess – namely the CMHC, local government inaction against foreign speculators, and of course, the RE industry as a whole and marketing practices.
Hopefully some good legislation can come out of it.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 6:25 pm 160
@Maverick:
We’ll see. My prediction is that if the NDP is elected next spring the RE industry, the press, and whatever the right is calling themselves at the time will do their level best to blame them for the bust.
You’ve already heard people on this board and on other websites blaming the NDP for driving down RE prices 1991-2001, when in fact they went up over that period.
May or may not work – we will see. However I don’t see the NDP taking on the RE industry in any serious way until the bottom is clearly in, so as not to look responsible for price declines.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 7:16 pm 161
Massive mortgage debt is top of mind for Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, but in his quest to curtail Canadians’ borrowing, he might want to start thinking about the vehicles sitting in their driveways and garages, too.
The use of long-term loans to purchase new vehicles is skyrocketing, as car buyers look for ways to cut or hold steady a key component of a family’s spending – the monthly car payment.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/debt-burdened-canadians-succumb-to-the-lure-of-the-long-term-car-loan/article4434786/
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July 22nd, 2012 at 8:07 pm 162
Stopped in at Solo District Sales center mid day today…. quite a few lookers, and just as many salesmen/woman, they were sitting around awaiting their next victim. Sounds like the 1st tower-phase 1 of the 4 planned did not sell out, lots of selection still available, we were told the whole project ie; all 4 towers are estimate to be completed 2020 lol
NOT Gonna End well
FYI units are aprox 400$ per sq ft
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July 22nd, 2012 at 8:09 pm 163
FYI units start at aprox $400 per sq ft
lol
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July 22nd, 2012 at 8:36 pm 164
Speaking of foreclosures, friends of mine in the Okanagan are eagerly checking out the dozens of properties currently foreclosed on there, hoping to get a good deal (IMHO, these are still overpriced, but to each his own). One property was recently forwarded by their realtor as “not a foreclosure! currently owned by CMHC!” Anyone know what the difference is? Perhaps the bank just gave up and passed the property onto CMHC instead of trying to sell it? Not sure what the difference is here…anyway, lots for sale in the Okanagan, not really sure the prices are what they should be though, think they will drop lower with the new 25 year rules!
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July 22nd, 2012 at 9:18 pm 165
I guess HAM has moved to Europe:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/18/uk-property-europe-china-idUSLNE86H02320120718
Same story everywhere “HAM will save us” jokes on them I don’t think HAM will exist 5 years from now
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July 22nd, 2012 at 9:19 pm 166
Does anyone know the completion dates for metro town area condos, such as The Met, Silver, Chancellor, Moda, Station Square, MetroPlace, Sovereign?
If they all finish around the same time, this will create lots of downward pressure on price.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 9:34 pm 167
@patriotz: “My prediction is that if the NDP is elected next spring the RE industry, the press, and whatever the right is calling themselves at the time will do their level best to blame them for the bust.”
The NDP wont be responsible for the bust but they sure will excelerate it and make prices over correct. When taxes rise, business’ close and people flee the province it does tend to cause real estate to go down more than it would have otherwise. I am looking forward to it.
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July 22nd, 2012 at 11:31 pm 168
@Anonymous: I disagree. NDP will throw more money at the problem in a futile attempt to delay the inevitable, the pain for BC taxpayers will be made even worst.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 12:19 am 169
@Chem guy:
“I don’t think HAM will exist 5 years from now”
Reality is, as long as we keep buying so many, many things made in China and the region, there will be HAM. The question really is, where will the HAM be spent/invested in 5 years? Europe? U.S.? Canada? China? All of the above?
The day there is no more HAM in the world is the day countries have adopted protectionist trade policies, or else our factory salaries are competitive with China’s(and if you know what their salaries and work conditions are like, you definitely don’t want us stooping to their level).
Honestly, I’d love to be convinced with a good argument as to why HAM will just simply disappear in 5 years though. Any good reasons out there why all the money we’re sending over there should *poof* disappear?
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July 23rd, 2012 at 4:08 am 170
@Anonymous:
“NDP will throw more money at the problem in a futile attempt to delay the inevitable”
The NDP is not going to throw money at programs with the goal of supporting prices, like Crusty’s new properties credit. They know who Crusty’s backers are, and that such programs put money directly in their pockets.
IMHO they are not going to be want to be seen as either trying to support present prices – which can’t and won’t work – or driving them down. As usual, look for them to promise various programs to assist in rental and co-op accommodation.
Remember that Vancouver’s last extended bear market in RE took place during Glen Clark’s tenure. Do you recall any government response to that?
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July 23rd, 2012 at 4:11 am 171
@Crikey:
This is the HAM we should be worried about:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/chinas-cnooc-to-buy-nexen-for-151-billion/article4435247/
As for HAM buying Canadian RE, yes it may well fall significantly, once the message gets to them that it’s a great way to lose money.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 5:58 am 172
@142 Anonymous Says: “Just curious, is there anyone or anything you do like? You seem to detest everyone and everything. It must be tough to get up in the morning.”
Sorry, I just can’t see the world in your limited and simple terms. Clinton’s financial industry deregulation was the secret sauce to his economic ‘success’ and set the stage for both the Dot Com and housing bubbles, while his attack on rights and freedoms under his War on Drugs, blatant pandering to the Right so he wouldn’t appear weak on crime, set the ground work for the Patriot Act.
You are correct, however, that waking up to a world in which dittoheads like you incessantly promote a fallacious and self-defeating ‘your team/my team’ world view can be depressing. Believing you’re contracted to post those opinions help tempers it.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 6:32 am 173
[...] “Here comes the death spiral at Cosmo 161 W Georgia St: I am in the market for a 2 bedroom condo as first time buyer in downtown for the past few months. My budget is 500k. I have been watching this building closely. There are 6 units that are exactly the same layout on MLS. Unit 807, 1608, 1708, 1808, 2108, 2208. Asking price from 575k to 629k. 807 had open house two weeks ago (I viewed) and was the lowest priced at that time. Now 2208 entered the market last week and priced lowest. 807 (V949770) just reduced it’s price to beat 2208 (V962354) this week. At this rate, I hope they will drop to $500k by Nov. this year.” – G at VCI 20 Jul 2012 10:14pm [...]
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July 23rd, 2012 at 6:56 am 174
@Crikey: “Honestly, I’d love to be convinced with a good argument as to why HAM will just simply disappear in 5 years though. Any good reasons out there why all the money we’re sending over there should *poof* disappear?”
There’s two factors driving HAM to Canada: The feeling that their capital may be subject to confiscation if left/invested in China, and the feeling that Canadian real estate is one of the best places to invest overseas right now. If either of those things change, or if China busts and there’s simply less capital to export, flows could change in a hurry.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 6:59 am 175
@patriotz:
First you say this:
“You’ve already heard people on this board and on other websites blaming the NDP for driving down RE prices 1991-2001, when in fact they went up over that period.”
Then this:
“Remember that Vancouver’s last extended bear market in RE took place during Glen Clark’s tenure. Do you recall any government response to that?”
Get your story straight.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 7:00 am 176
@fixie guy:
Enough said…LOL
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July 23rd, 2012 at 7:03 am 177
@patriotz: “The NDP is not going to throw money at programs with the goal of supporting prices”
True, they will be too buy handing out excessive union contracts and driving evil businesses away to worry about housing.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 8:26 am 178
‘Average’ house prices don’t tell the whole story
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/07/17/f-average-home-prices.html
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July 23rd, 2012 at 10:13 am 179
@Anonymous:
I have it straight.
I have a hunch someone might come up with a reply like yours. RE prices in Vancouver went up over the period 1991-2001 and there was a decline while Glen Clark was Premier.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 10:25 am 180
@crashcow:
Meanwhile, Garth’s predictions are going in the opposite direction.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 10:55 am 181
180 Vote Down The Facts Says: “Meanwhile, Garth’s predictions are going in the opposite direction.”
The only sense I can make of it is he doesn’t want to risk being labelled a ‘doomer’ and losing page clicks. Historical valuations, affordability, price/rent and more all point to a dramatic negative correction.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 11:06 am 182
Head’s up investors! Don Campbell not sanguine about Vancouver property in near term!
Buy gold
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July 23rd, 2012 at 12:03 pm 183
Larry is calling out for a plunge in sales (and prices, implicitely):
http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/07/vancouver-is-about-to-make-a-splash/
I have never seen more bearish blog from him so far.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 12:38 pm 184
@asalvari1:
Larry doesn’t realize that all the water has been drained from the pool.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 12:59 pm 185
@Best place on meth:
straight to the bottom of sea floor..?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqOn5XEm86A
It’ll be fun to see the 2012 vci roller coaster..
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July 23rd, 2012 at 1:46 pm 186
@Mick Murphy: “Average” home price trend for Canada in the short term is next to meaningless. However, when you get more granular, say, down to the municipal level or even down further to dwelling type, one can’t really argue anymore that the data are skewed, because such detail data are already quite homogeneous.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 1:50 pm 187
This link on developer Anthem’s website shows they will build 1.6M+ SF of residential space at Station Square:
http://anthemproperties.com/properties-overview/all
Assuming 800SF per unit that’s 2000 total units. Plus there are 478k SF of commercial space.
And only 1205 parking spaces. WTF.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 1:51 pm 188
Poor, poor Richmond….
9177 EVANCIO CRES, 3847 sqft, 76 days on market.
Ask: $1.488M
Sold: $1.26M
15% below asking.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 1:52 pm 189
VMD Says;
“It’ll be fun to see the 2012 vci roller coaster..”
Maybe there should be a price level at which the roller coaster dives into the ocean, and becomes an underwater ride.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 1:56 pm 190
Poor, poor N. Van…..
968 FOREST HILLS DR, 20 days on market
Ask: $1.198M
Sold: $1.05M
12.5% below asking.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 1:58 pm 191
@Mick Murphy:
Yes, the real estate industry would only like us to pay attention to metrics that always go up. So when the average starts to fall it’s no good anymore and time to invent something new like say the HPI which can continue to rise forever.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 1:58 pm 192
@Best place on meth: Anyone know what the house last sold for?
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July 23rd, 2012 at 2:09 pm 193
Toronto looks on the bright side of oversupply and falling prices:
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1228289–real-estate-advice-toronto-condo-market-gives-renters-plenty-of-choice-and-better-prices
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July 23rd, 2012 at 2:15 pm 194
@187 gokou3 Says:
Re: Station Square; I think that parking number on Anthem’s page refers to the existing parking. The Rezoning doc including proposed parking ratios are located here;
https://burnaby.civicweb.net/Documents/DocumentDisplay.aspx?Id=11812
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July 23rd, 2012 at 2:37 pm 195
@Best place on meth: Well that evancio place is assessed at $1.26M… so can’t really say it was too bad. Lucky seller.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 2:39 pm 196
@Best place on meth: On the other hand, the NV place was sold at $70k below assessed value of $1.12M.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 2:40 pm 197
@Best place on meth: Why do people keep posting these ask, sell posts without context? What is the assessed value? what is the date and price of the last sale?
these types of post distract from valuable discussion and reduce the value of this site.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 2:56 pm 198
@gLOO:
“what is the date and price of the last sale?”
Why don’t you ask a realtor since their criminal cartel keeps such basic information under lock and key.
Let us know how far you get with that.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 2:57 pm 199
@gLOO:
It’s true that ask/sell numbers don’t tell us much, but in terms of reducing the value of this site, I think you are dreaming. When you compare that to the hundreds of posts about traffic, the behavior of Chinese people, the weather, etc., the ask/sell numbers pure gold.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 3:38 pm 200
@Best place on meth: Yes, it’s the real estate agent’s fault that you post out of context information.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 3:41 pm 201
@N: “It’s true that ask/sell numbers don’t tell us much, but in terms of reducing the value of this site, I think you are dreaming. When you compare that to the hundreds of posts about traffic, the behavior of Chinese people, the weather, etc., the ask/sell numbers pure gold.”
Crap is still crap. It doesn’t how much worse the turd beside it smells, it’s still crap. I just want to point that out. Let’s not discuss this further, and let people vote things up or down as they see fit.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 3:54 pm 202
@gLOO:
well, you asked for it.
it took approx 10 min to get your posts to “foreclosure” level.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 4:23 pm 203
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/2035/Richmond+company+fined+fraud/6975782/story.html
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July 23rd, 2012 at 4:26 pm 204
Sales today look as quiet as Friday.
To put that into the proper context: “Sales today look as quiet as Friday.”
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July 23rd, 2012 at 5:22 pm 205
seriously, who the hell would spend a million dollars to live in Richmond?
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July 23rd, 2012 at 5:41 pm 206
Today is Monday – all day.
There were 82 sales today of which
33 were from prior to July 10.
There were 49 sales posted where the sale date was after July 9.
For those keeping score, since July 9 there have been exactly 1,000 sales post and 799 related to pre-July 9 sales and 201 were for post July 9.
We are seeing the pre July 9 sales drop off and the post July-9 sales creep upwards.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 5:41 pm 207
Anyone have the sales numbers for today?
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July 23rd, 2012 at 5:42 pm 208
Wow ZRH… you read my mind.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 5:44 pm 209
@ZRH2YVR:
Those numbers are *** SO BAD ***. Unbelievable. 82 f’ing sales? You kidding me? For a Monday? This market is f*cked. I was expecting 110-120 today minimum. If this keeps up, we could see 50-60 sales a day by week-end.
ZRH2YVR – Are we projected to have worse sales than July 2011 yet based on the 7 day moving average? MOI must be above 9 by now. Things are crashing hard.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 5:56 pm 210
New Listings 201
Price Changes 166
Sold Listings 86
TI:19279
http://www.paulboenisch.com
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July 23rd, 2012 at 6:01 pm 211
Did not mean to Pre-empt PaulB on the daily sales – I suppose he will post his normal daily post. Here’s the other trends.
1.) We are def. below 2011. We may go below 2008. Based on last week average, expected to be 2008.
2.) SFH sales falling off a cliff and down 25% over last year and 10% from last month at least.
3.) Attached impacted by change in rules – here was where the bump was most impacted. However, if all sales go as they are now – we may still have attached be below 2008.
Sigh – what a trend – - back in 2008/2009 – the govt’s of the world pulled out all the liquidity stops. So we pumped this thing up. Now – the amunition is limited if there at all.
MOI is going to end the month a 8 (using the REBGV numbers which exclude bare land in the inventory). However, SFH is close to 10, up from 8.6 last month.
Attached is at 7, which is down slightly from the previous month.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 6:02 pm 212
Date List Sold
12.07.03 304 116
12.07.04 324 165
12.07.05 281 112
12.07.06 233 82
12.07.09 278 158
12.07.10 266 77
12.07.11 222 134
12.07.12 216 115
12.07.13 236 99
12.07.16 248 165
12.07.17 211 156
12.07.18 214 100
12.07.19 193 87
12.07.20 212 61
12.07.23 201 86
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July 23rd, 2012 at 6:05 pm 213
Sales are bad but inventory is stubborn. 20K seems like a while off yet.
We all know things are bad and getting worse. That said I am not sensing panic among the masses.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 6:05 pm 214
No Toronto condo bubble, RBC says
As usual, the texbook criterion for determining a bubble – price versus earnings (rental value) – somehow escaped scrutiny.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 6:14 pm 215
Record low sales in July 2008 were 2174.
With only 6 days left, it appears if we average less than around 80 sales per day, we will break that record.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 6:16 pm 216
Wow, sales are off a cliff! Still looking like the year of the bear! Start practicing that sympathetic look for all the people you warned but who didn’t listen.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 6:17 pm 217
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July 23rd, 2012 at 6:17 pm 218
@McLovin:
I get the impression that Vancouverites are attempting the old “Take my listing off, and put it back up next year for more” trick. This time it won’t work though. MOI is approaching 10 and once it hits that mark, prices will drop. This is where condos come in and SHINE! Because condos compete directly with exact floorplans, selling wars break out and drag the whole market down. It will trickle down to houses. Once sellers see prices dropping they will panic and we will see a surge of listings in the winter. We aren’t going to hit 20k this year, it’s probably unlikely now, but we don’t need to. Sell-list ratio is in the dumps. I can’t *WAIT* to see the Richmond stats at the end of this month. The REBGV is going to have to work extra hard to put a spin on this shit hole of a month. Two months back to back record low 10+ year sales during summer would be unheard of.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 6:17 pm 219
@TPFKAA: from year of the dragon to year of the bear. nice.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 6:34 pm 220
@McLovin:
The masses don’t look at the stats every day like we do. They will panic when it is too late which, if nothing else, is the time at which panic is most appropriate.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 6:37 pm 221
@ScubaSteve:
“Are we projected to have worse sales than July 2011 yet based on the 7 day moving average?”
Average sales per day last July was 132.
This July is 109 and falling.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 7:17 pm 222
I’ve been watching good old Spectrum listings just for fun…
For example, 3005-111 West Georgia St. This particular listing seems to be chasing down the market (what’s NOT to do in the declining market…).
Listed in April for 437,000. Didn’t sell, so pulled off the market and re-listed this week for 429,000.
This is the beginning of a death spiral.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 8:24 pm 223
@ZRH2YVR: “Sigh – what a trend – – back in 2008/2009 – the govt’s of the world pulled out all the liquidity stops. So we pumped this thing up. Now – the amunition is limited if there at all.”
It is really not about ammunition, it is about what the federal government is trying to do in Canada. In 2008/2009 they were trying to prepare for an election and get a majority government. Now they have a majority and the next election is years away they are trying to deflate the bubble now rather than it popping later closer to the election. Things are going as planned. They want housing to correct.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 8:28 pm 224
@Anonymous: “I’ve been watching good old Spectrum listings just for fun… Listed in April for 437,000. Didn’t sell, so pulled off the market and re-listed this week for 429,000.”
That is a notable price reduction in one of the most prestigious buildings in Vancouver. Wow, almost 2% off the original asking price. It might be time to buy. Looks like some serious carnage.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 8:45 pm 225
@Anonymous: I know you think you were being clever, but this is the epitome of behavior characterized as “chasing the market down.” Rather than pricing at a significant discount to generate interest and a sale, the owner will continue to drop the asking price 1or 2 percent at a time.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 8:50 pm 226
@ScubaSteve: “It will trickle down to houses.”
Isn’t it usually the top-end of the market where price decreases begin? Aren’t we already seeing that?
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July 23rd, 2012 at 9:18 pm 227
@Oneangryslav2:this is the epitome of behavior characterized as “chasing the market down.”
Asking 429K for a dump in Spectrum is not chasing the market down. It would have never sold for that even at peak.
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July 23rd, 2012 at 9:23 pm 228
@Vote Down The Facts: “Isn’t it usually the top-end of the market where price decreases begin? Aren’t we already seeing that?”
First time buyers are typically what drives the market and where things dry up first. In Vancouver there was a lot of speculation on the Westside and Richmond with SFH which seems to have poped first. But as far as one driving the other it is the first time buyer that is critical for the market to keep going. The high end stuff could correct and not impact the rest of the market.
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