Open Topic

Friday Free-For-All!

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140 Comments

It’s Friday!  The end of another glorious summer work-week and the weekend is calling.  This is when we do our regular end of the week news roundup and open topic discussion thread and as per tradition here are a few links to kick off the chat:

–Inventory Graph slowing
–Canada home price hits record
–US prices to median $149,300
–Vancouver plans new ‘Superroad’
–Sales dive in West Van & Richmond
–Capcom lays off 20
–BC deficit understated by $520M
–Oakridge plans to be a community
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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[…] it’s an emotional topic and I didn’t want to upset anyone, and lets enjoy the wedding.” – SunBlaster at VCI 29 Jul 2012 10:33pm Share: This entry was posted in 01. He Said, She Said, 09. Delaying Buying and tagged Anecdotes, […]

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MM

@jesse: Perhaps the cure is education and a culture that’s more interested in facts, and looking past the marketing messages? I don’t understand why people aren’t embarrassed to “dumb down”. They will even defend their right to be dumb.

The discussion about who invented the internet (or even what “The Internet” is) is just another example. Very simple concepts, very simple facts.

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gokou3

@Kaul P: Listing for $459k? How is that possible? The seller bought the place last August for $474k per BC assessment. Why does he choose to lose $15k plus carrying costs like mortgage interest (or the interest income if he bought for cash), selling agent commissions, property taxes, insurance, legal fees? Wouldn’t he lose like $70k when all is said and done? Doesn’t vancouver RE always go up?

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jesse

@fixie guy: “simplistic reasoning that undercuts one of the fundamentals of free markets: maximizing returns.” That’s not the point I’m making, I’m stating the focus should not be drawn from perfectly good examples of people managing their families and businesses without getting swept up in financial woe wrought by poor risk-return. The inevitable sob stories of people getting swept up in asset bubbles too grandiose to fathom, and blaming governments for producing inherently unstable financing guidelines, diminish personal responsibility and there are countless examples stretching from families with generations of accumulated wealth to single parents living hand-to-mouth who have managed to avoid taking the bait. I just hope whatever these people did or were advocating doesn’t get glossed over when TSHTF. I will be blaming government like everyone else but I don’t think its ultimately the right thing on which… Read more »

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patriotz

@N:
“we should be pointing that out”

We’ve been pointing it out for seven years now and essentially all we’ve received in return is derision.

But far more important than anything we’ve been saying is the colossal bust in the US which every Canadian knows about. If people won’t pay attention to that they won’t pay any attention to anything.

Yes of course the Cons took advantage of the population’s greed and stupidity but as the saying goes, you can’t cheat an honest man because he doesn’t expect to get something for nothing.

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N

@patriotz:

It might be useful step away from blame and look at it in terms of policy. If we think that the policy of backstopping the banks in order to flood the housing market with easy money is a bad policy, then we should be pointing that out.

Just because the population agrees with stupid policy does not mean we should not point fingers at the policy makers. For example, the vast majority of Americans supported the Iraq war, but that does not mean their is no point in criticizing the Bush administration.

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fixie guy

133 patriotz Says: “Ultimately you can’t blame politicians for saying and doing what it takes to get elected, you have to blame the voters.”

Voters thought they were getting a healthy economy based on sound conservative fiscal policies. The got corporatism and a bubble. I’ll still put the bulk of the blame on the deceiver over the deceived, as I blame Enron and anyone who loads children’s milk with chalk dust no matter how greedy and selfish consumers are to want cheap milk and quarterly cheques.

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patriotz

@fixie guy:
“The federal government continues to this day telling voters and anyone who’ll listen that we’re different and Canadian housing isn’t in a bubble, contrary to the very same historical precedent you point to in the US and financial opinions world wide.”

The reason the Cons are saying this (and the other parties aren’t calling them on it) is because it’s what the voters want to hear. We have a bubble because the voters wanted a bubble. No clearer lesson can be gained by the outcome of the election in 2011.

Ultimately you can’t blame politicians for saying and doing what it takes to get elected, you have to blame the voters.

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fixie guy

126 blamegame Says:” Everyone is responsible for their own purchases. If they go broke, fuck ‘em. They should have made better decisions.” Don’t confuse my gist with sympathy or bailouts. Buyers get what’s coming to them. If that piece of shit in charge suggests taxpayers who saved instead of bought should ‘help’ buyers in trouble, I’ld consider emigrating. What jesse infers however is that no matter the distortions and incentives from government and industry, buyers are solely responsible, simplistic reasoning that undercuts one of the fundamentals of free markets: maximizing returns. Hidden government stimulus assured housing performed that function spectacularly well for the last decade. You’re blaming the market for behaving like a market. The federal government continues to this day telling voters and anyone who’ll listen that we’re different and Canadian housing isn’t in a bubble, contrary to the… Read more »

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trackback

[…] Histats.track_hits();} catch(err){}; Inventory posted this update to detached sales in Richmond and it’s […]

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Navin R. Johnson

@SunBlaster:

Your friend is toast. It’s theses people that think “it’s different here” that I can’t wait to rub noses in it…

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rp1

@SunBlaster:

Central Banker: Free Booze!
Average Person: Whoopie!
Central Banker: Whoa, hold up!
Average Person: Doc I’ve got a hangover! Help!
Central Banker: Have a shot of this!
Average Person: That’s better, but I ain’t doing too well.
Central Banker: Have another shot!
Average Person: Ugh! I think I’m going to-
Central Banker: One more!
Average Person: BLAAGGGHH!!!
Central Banker: Keep drinking, really!
Average Person: My liver is failing.
Central Banker: This is the only medicine we have!

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SunBlaster

Was at a friends wedding last night, with a group of friends. One asked me if I am going to up-size from my current place to a bigger one. I said no, since market is crashing, and gave him most up to date stats -50% in sales compared to last year and -10% in price in last 5 months. Second friend turned around and said that there is no way it’s going to crash in Vancouver, since San Francisco never crashed. I was bit a buzzed from gin and tonic so couldn’t remember exacts stats for San Francisco. Then the first friend jokenly said that second one bought a third property not too long ago and waiting for it to be built. At that point I told them that lets not talk about real-state since it’s an emotional topic and… Read more »

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Anonymous

@HAM Solo:

We should as a group put together the best top 10 list why real estate isn’t selling in Vancouver anymore.

For July only I will add “Chinese too busy watching doped up countrymen winning all events”.

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blamegame

@fixie guy: Everyone is responsible for their own purchases. If they go broke, fuck ’em. They should have made better decisions.

Anyone who watched what happened in the US and then made the same choices deserves exactly what they get, no matter what government policy encourages.

They can blame whoever they want, but if they want to find who is ultimately responsible they need to look in a mirror.

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fixie guy

123 jesse Says: “Of course culpability is shared with regulators but, from what I can tell from the evidence offered in history, it should be no surprise they can and will fall short.”

Average citizens ‘shoodanone’ government policies we too good to be true? That perspective widely shared would certainly be in the best interest of the real estate industry and the CMHC.

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Eddie

Meanwhile in Phoenix… Note the 2005 selling price folks, that kind of pain is coming to a neighborhood near you!

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5609-S-31st-Dr-Phoenix-AZ-85041/67781683_zpid/

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jesse

@N: “That doesn’t mean that I am without responsibility but in my opinion it does mean that some is shared by the government” Of course culpability is shared with regulators but, from what I can tell from the evidence offered in history, it should be no surprise they can and will fall short. Individuals, save a few with sicknesses, are quite capable of making sound choices and many do. There seems to be no stratification in the frequency of how these choices are made; that is, I am convinced Canadians are more than capable of figuring things out regardless of education or class. So we have two entities: a government that we should expect to have culpability, and citizens, some who have managed to handle their finances and not take some unhedged risk by hitting the Easy Button. There are… Read more »

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fixie guy

120 jesse Says: ” I cannot blame external influences for what as far as I can ascertain is a problem that in all cases involves an individual signing of free will on the bottom line. “

You meant, of course, the bank officers who of their free corporate will designed, printed, advertised and offered signed mortgages to customers they wouldn’t touch ten years ago. They had the centuries of experience and the mathematical models to guide them on what constitutes a safe loan. Fair point.

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N

@jesse:

There is room for blame on both sides. The government created the moral hazard for the banks and it could be expected that the banks would do all they could to encourage people to act imprudently. The people in turn wre imprudent.

It is also reasonable for people to expect that government participation implies government sanction and government sanction means safety. If the federal government is insuring my loan for the bank, and the provincial government is giving the developer ten grand (through me), then it is not surprising if I feel that government smiles on my transaction. That doesn’t mean that I am without responsibility but in my opinion it does mean that some is shared by the government.

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jesse

@Urbain: I’m not so wise to think that imposing regulations will be a permanent fix to Vancouver’s chronic boom-bust mentality; I cannot blame external influences for what as far as I can ascertain is a problem that in all cases involves an individual signing of free will on the bottom line. Then we get the populist dogma that governments are at fault for — what — allowing people to have free will? I agree that regulations have a place but why should we be surprised when governments imposing these regulations let their citizens down and that the regulations tend to rot over time? I’m certainly not — I’m trying to find times in history where governments DON’T end up mostly disappointing aspirations. As far as I’m concerned, from what I see around me, especially in Canada, people have been given… Read more »

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Urbain

@jesse: I agree to a point, however it’s difficult for people to make an educated decision when the vast majority of the information available is made so by the Nefarious, Dishonest and Corrupt (NDC) in collusion with their bought and paid-for cohorts in the MSM. Sure, there’s bear blogs like this one but so many people have been drinking the MSM cool-aid, and are pressuring friends and family to do the same, that the knowledge and understanding found in blogs like this is dismissed out of hand. Paradigm is a powerful thing and those who can pay for the privilege of directing it have the control. ‘Conventional wisdom’ is anything but; it’s merely a term used by the aforementioned NDC crowd to encourage people to part with their (borrowed) money. Local and national news will continue to trot out ‘experts’… Read more »

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HAM Solo

@ Crikey

Top 5 realtor excuses for July sales

– fabulous weather meant buyers were busy enjoying the BPOE

– European time zone Olympics caused people to watch sports during the critical 2-4 PM open house hours on weekends

– SO MUCH great selection and SO MANY places to choose from meant more work for buyers in finding their dream home

– Rumours of SPECTACULAR condo launches in the fall pushing buying decisions tp September

– HAM prefers to buy in 8th month of the year

– (and Bonus 6th excuse, used only by Dr. Goebbel’s Big Lie Realty Inc) Actually, July sales were better than expected

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Crikey

@Dr. Nick Riviera: “I think pretty much any excuse they can pull out of their ass will suffice.” In all seriousness, we should start a Twitter feed called “ReasonsForRealEstateDownturn” or “ExcusesForRealEstateDownturn”. With enough satirical/funny contributions, attention, and trending, it could help showcase Vancouver & Toronto realtor quotes as the farcical bullshiat that they are. Then, when any of sheepleBear friends/coworkers harp on about how Vancouver real estate prices will never fall, we can nod in feigned agreement and (trying to keep a straight face) point them to this twitter feed for a list of great excuses for why local real estate has had a bad blip in the last while. If such sheepleBears realize that their position is being widely ridiculed…is the butt of jokes (in a “trending” Twitter feed, no less!)… for at least some of them, it may… Read more »

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Crikey

@Boombust:
“EVERYONE wants to live here”…”This was yesterday afternoon at a Port Moody BBQ.”
BWA-hahahaha…HAhahaha
Oh…my gut hurts

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