Island markets have that sinking feeling

If you’re curious what a market looks like when it’s been falling for a while check out these stats for different areas on the island.

John Cooper of ReMax provides some good stats packages for various Vancouver island markets.

It looks like a lot of the outlying areas and recreational property in BC isn’t doing as hot as it once was.

In Qualicum Parksville, a single condo sold last month.

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ScubaSteve
ScubaSteve
8 years ago

Thought I would update PaulB’s chart using his last 3 days of number, to get the updated list/sell ratio, MOI and projected EOM sales.

———-
As of Jul-13-2012
Total days 21
Days elapsed so far 9
Weekends / holidays 4
Days missing 0
Days remaining 12
SALES
Sales so far 1058
Projected month end total 2468
NEW LISTINGS
Listings so far 2360
Projected month end total 5506
Sell-list so far 44.8%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
Inventory as of July 10, 2012 19208
Current MoI at this sales pace 7.78
———-

The numbers will probably trend downward in the 2nd half of July though. Just IMO.

TO Bound
TO Bound
8 years ago

Alright folks,

I am getting married and likely moving to TO within the year. I am a little disappointed that I don’t get to watch the collapse in person. I am a little concern with what I hear about the “Vancouverization” of TO. I really don’t want to wait a few more years of watching increases in prices before decreases in prices, after their bubble bursts.

Does anyone know any good bubble sites for Toronto RE?

Thanks in advance.

Simpatico
Simpatico
8 years ago

@Disbelief: It’s already shaping up as a pretty bad deal for 2 colleagues in BC who purchased vacation homes that were just “too good a deal to pass up.” One bought a 4 bd, 2bth home in gulf coastal community in Florida for $40K last year. Bought it in good shape, no title issues, tried to turn it into a vacation rental, got no takers (huge inventory overhang in this community meant everyone was trying to rent at the same time). Gave up on vacation renters, tried to get a year round, went months without any luck. Finally got a renter, who proceeded to trash the place. Got rid of the renter, hired a property management company to handle the cleanup and re-renting. The community in which the house was located ends up being very close to bankrupt, so raised… Read more »

Simpatico
Simpatico
8 years ago

@fixie guy: I’m actually more concerned about credit unions like Vancity. Lots of mortgages out there, backstopped by the province. Lots to go under water in near future, and economy in BC not faring all that well.

I’d appreciate your thoughts…Vancity, safer, or less safe, than Canadian banks? I have money in both US and Canada and track bank ratings on Weiss…what’s the comparable here, DBRS?

Having seen very surprising developments in the US over the past 6 years, beyond our wildest imagining…I now believe that there are lots of risks in the financial system that would surprise even the more knowledgeable.

Victoria
Victoria
8 years ago

I am here in whistler. It is dead compared to last year. Might have been the weather but I am not sure. The difference is amazing. Greed killed the golden goose???

ZRH2YVR
8 years ago

A couple of thoughts. 1.) The sales post on MLS typically some time after subjects are removed and only when the Realtor reports the sale. The date entered as a sale date is the date the contract was signed. So there is a time lag which is usually 2 weeks. I have seen it go back a couple of months but if you run a distribution curve of the number of days we should go with about 5-10 business days as the normal. Thus, it will not be unitl July 23 at which we can say only a trickle are coming in from pre July 9. 2.) When we get stats for all Lower Mainland, it does not include Chilliwack but it does go out to Mission / Abbotsford. @HFHC – if you went and opened up the details for… Read more »

Madashell
Madashell
8 years ago

@HFHC: All of LM sales is 213 vs Paulb’s 115 leads to the conclusion that the sales in the vancouver area is dying and outskirts areas like Chilliwack is still alive…for now.

rp1
rp1
8 years ago

@TNT: “China’s latest GDP numbers suspect again.”

China is crashing. Interest rates tell all.

Disbelief
Disbelief
8 years ago

The Canadians that are investing in the US are all cash buyers as many of my US realtors have said. The Canadians have huge mortgages not cash…. hmmm they are using their overpriced homes and false equity as the piggy bank to invest in retirement property. Once the bubble bursts this will be disastrous….

TNT
TNT
8 years ago

China’s latest GDP numbers suspect again. The Ponzi that keeps on giving. This house of cards just keeps getting bigger.

Yellow Helicopter
Yellow Helicopter
8 years ago

@HFHC – awesome stats, thank you for your time on this!

HFHC
HFHC
8 years ago

New Listings 300
Back On Market Listings 15
Price Changes 261
Sold Listings 213

ALL LOWER MAINLAND

After taking a closer look only 15 sold dates were after July 9th. Some had sold days from May. I guess there will be a bunch of listings sold maybe even till the end of the month.

SOLD
Townhouse – 36
Apartment – 61
House – 116

SOLD
Houses
1 mil + = 20
900k – 999k = 2
800k – 899k = 7
700k – 799k = 11
600k – 699k = 23
500k – 599k = 26
400k – 499k = 22
399k – = 5

rp1
rp1
8 years ago

30 story skyscraper for Saskatoon, because “it’s downtown and people just expect it”.

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/River+landing+reaches/6907683/story.html

Simple
Simple
8 years ago

@jesse:

Jesse. I have been wondering about your picture as well but now I get it. You slay bulls for a living! Bad-ass.

rp1
rp1
8 years ago

#51 @SunBlaster: “now what do I say to that?!”

Good luck?

Conrad
Conrad
8 years ago

@Thurston Howell: The proof will be in the pudding my friend

rp1
rp1
8 years ago

#10 @fixie guy: “True, new homes can always be built in Jensen, Saskatchewan but demand for that product will be a hurdle.”

Are you sure? The media in Saskatoon claims they’re running out of land.

rp1
rp1
8 years ago

#5 @ZRH2YVR: “Paris is a World-Class city.”

But do they have a $100 hot dog?

Thurston Howell
Thurston Howell
8 years ago

@Conrad:

“Big activity in the market this week. Expect large sales volumes until at least the end of July. Looks like the mortgage rules are having a very minimal effect.”

Nice one. Got me going.

I don’t think there is much chance of large volume going forward, after all, as you pumpers like to claim “we have run out of land”

Therefore I reason: no land, no building, no inventory to sell.

You pumpers are so screwed.

TNT
TNT
8 years ago

Just checked posted site message said its currently off line.

HFHC
HFHC
8 years ago

I will look into the dates of the sales tonight. It slipped my mine that you can look up the closing date.

Navin R. Johnson
Navin R. Johnson
8 years ago

@GVR:

Oh, he he …you so punny… You got me dare swifty….

George the Third
George the Third
8 years ago

I thought some of the readers of this blog might be interested in a piece of mail I received today unsolicited. It reads: Re: $10,000.00 First Time Buyer grant My name is —–. I am a mortgage broker. Over the past ten years, I have helped many families become homeowner. I understand saving for a down payment while paying rent is not easy, and I am happy to let you know that now there is a $10,000.00 grant available for the first time home buyers. Opportunity like this makes your dream of home ownership a reality and a much easier process. If you are a first time buyer, here are three reasons why the housing market is on your side: Our economy is seeing historically the lowest interest rates and this is great reason to enter the market now. Low… Read more »

paulb
8 years ago

New Listings 216
Price Changes 165
Sold Listings 115
TI:19135

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca