Island markets have that sinking feeling

If you’re curious what a market looks like when it’s been falling for a while check out these stats for different areas on the island.

John Cooper of ReMax provides some good stats packages for various Vancouver island markets.

It looks like a lot of the outlying areas and recreational property in BC isn’t doing as hot as it once was.

In Qualicum Parksville, a single condo sold last month.

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French_In_Exile
Guest
French_In_Exile

Keep bringing on some bear food! I’d love to see stats on Richmond. Looks like the island was ground zero for the crash… The tidal wave is at our shores 😀 😀 …

French_In_Exile
Guest
French_In_Exile
CNBC Asia has a story out on why the US is ‘Paradise’ for real estate investors. For those who are still wondering where the HAM is going: ” The United States is a ‘paradise’ compared to the rest of the world and investors should be looking at companies that make most, if not all, of their money in the country because these firms will be able to weather a downturn in the global economy a lot better, according to Bill Smead, CEO of Smead Capital Management. The American economy is currently “reviving” one of its most important engines of growth, the domestic housing sector, which has seen about six months of positive data, Smead told CNBC Asia’s “Cash Flow” on Thursday. GDP growth will be driven by this sector because some of the so-called “baby boomers’ kids” who haven’t bought… Read more »
patriotz
Member

Five reasons why falling house prices aren’t so bad

All good, but he left out #6 – high house prices hurt the real economy. We should be investing in industries that produce tradeable goods and services, not RE that doesn’t.

specialfx3000
Member
specialfx3000

Ahh, I’m late to the party but what da heck….

Ground Beef is the new Bull.

yvr2zrh
Member
Sorry but this is a repost from yesterday. It was very late when I posted so wanted to make sure it did not get buried. . —– Some insight (I may repost on tomorrow’s blog also as the day is about to turn over soon). The new rules have definitely had some impact on moving the marginal buyer’s purchases forward. This is really sad as they stand to lose the most but you can see people are just driven to make any transaction and the possibility that they will lose this ability has forced their hand. The stats are now starting to include the sales since the annoucement date and a statistically significant change in the composition of sales has emerged. Here’s what we’re seeing. 1.) SFH sales continue to be slow and will almost certainly be lower in July… Read more »
Rightsizer
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Rightsizer

@specialfx3000: Fashionably late I’d say, try some of our soup..

Soup is the new ‘real human food’ 😀

Rightsizer
Guest
Rightsizer

@ZRH2YVR: Brilliant, thanks for the update! Fascinating that there was a bump evident in such a compressed time between announcement and the change. Id guess the short time did help limit the number of people that leapt. Amazing the number of people out there that seem to need protection from their own financial decisions.

Trader Joe
Guest
Trader Joe

@patriotz:

Isn’t real estate a tradeable good? We sell tons of it to foriegn buyers. Lots of Canadians buy it in the USA.

gokou3
Guest
gokou3

@ZRH2YVR: Regarding “2.) Condo sales have spiked such that July is on track for higher than last month by 10% and even higher than last year.”

It should be reasonable to conclude that the spike in condo sales is due to naive first-time buyers getting in before they are “shut out”, pulling sales forward. If that’s true, expect the post-July 9th sales to be even worse than comparable period last year. I think overall July sales can still end below July last year.

registered
Member
registered

8 Trader Joe Says: “Isn’t real estate a tradeable good?”

Not one that’s sustainable. Vehicles and electronic devices can be manufactured and sold to customers overseas forever. Once the desirable housing markets have reached saturation of foreign ownership, it’s game over. True, new homes can always be built in Jensen, Saskatchewan but demand for that product will be a hurdle.

Not much of a name...
Member
Not much of a name...

@gokou3: Naive is right. Why not wait for prices to come down about 9% on that condo the FTB has their eye on? This will make their monthly payment about the same at 25 yr as it would be at a 30 yr amortization. Interest rates aren’t going anywhere fast.

I don’t think the wait will be that long. Places I’ve been watching in NV have had prices reductions of 5% in the last 30 days. Nothing is moving. These places are now at about the same price they were when brand new and are asking under assessed. It won’t be long before they can be had for 9% less than the original asking. I’m waiting for a whole lot more…

gokou3
Guest
gokou3

From BCREA: “BC Home Sales Lower through June, Stronger Second Half Expected”
http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/news-and-publications/news-room/news-releases/2012-06-statistical-release

“The pace of home sales slowed during the first half of the year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, the downturn is likely to be temporary as population growth, persistently low mortgage rates and encouraging employment figures suggest a stronger second half of 2012.”

Watch for these factors to make vancouver prices 100x the average US prices!

jesse
Member

@gokou3: “the downturn is likely to be temporary”

I can agree with this, though I expect we disagree on its duration.

French_In_Exile
Guest
French_In_Exile

@gokou3: Pumpers trying to save their shirts…

crabman
Guest

@gokou3: I’ve put that Muir quote in the Quote Tracker. It should be a classic in a couple of years.

http://vancouverpeak.com/groups/quote-tracker/forum/topic/cameron-muir-bcrea-chief-economist/

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@gokou3: stronger is the new weaker?
Cameron Muir will recycle himself as Comedian in Chief at Yuk Yuk’s once he loses his job…

Troll
Guest
Troll

@gokou3:

and encouraging employment figures suggest a stronger second half of 2012

But first half 2012 employment figures were encouraging in relation to 2011 employment figures……

GVR
Guest
GVR

A quick question for you bears who like to dismiss and mock everything the “pumpers” say: In the last ten years or so, who has been more right about the direction of the real estate market, you or the “pumpers”?

And based on that, who should I listen to? You or the “pumpers”?

Not much of a name...
Member
Not much of a name...

@GVR: You need to get your terminology straight…bears are “deflators”.

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@GVR: “And based on that, who should I listen to? You or the “pumpers”?”

I think you should listen to the pumpers and go and buy a condo in Burnaby, a SFH in Richmond or a townhouse in Langley. Please do so and let us know in a year from now how richer you feel…

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

awww Keith Roy had to edit his blog post

“*This version has been edited because it was deemed by some of my colleagues to be disrespectful to the industry of which I am a part.”

http://keithroy.com/blog.html/blog.18066/

GVR
Guest
GVR

@Makaya: Don’t need to. I’m happily settled in a comfortable North Shore home which I purchased several years ago, despite then (alleged) impending doom-and-gloom. I withstood the 2008 dip and expect that I will ride this one out quite nicely as well. And, honestly, most homeowners I speak to are not too concerned either, so I wouldn’t be counting on a major panic and sell-off anytime soon.

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@GVR: o I wouldn’t be counting on a major panic and sell-off anytime soon.

That’s not what the market is saying. Numbers in 2012 are close to those in 2008… And your presence here shows that, despite what you claim, you are probably a bit worried.

I don’t wish you anything bad and I surely hope the coming RE crash will spare you and your family.

jesse
Member

@Anonymous: LOL, here is at least one of the deleted passages, for the record:

Far too often the real estate industry, of which I am obviously a part, makes excuses for slow sales periods, declining prices and difficult negotiations. These excuses are self serving.

I would have worded this differently.

GVR
Guest
GVR

@Makaya: Not particularly worried, but watching with interest. The truth is, I’m finding it difficult to find a balanced and level headed discussion and analysis, so I try to glean what insight I can from reading both the pumpers and the “deflaters”. I think it would be in most people’s best interest if RE simply levelled off for a while, allowing the fundamentals to gradually catch up. The bears gleefully hope for a crash, but ignore the fact that they and their friends and families will also suffer the general economic fall-out from that.

wpDiscuz