Lots of new condos coming
They aren’t making any more land, but they are making more condos. Lots more condos.
Real estate market team MPC Intelligence started tracking new condo projects in Vancouver in 2005.
They just recorded the busiest six months on record for announced new concrete condo projects.
This despite a recent slow down in the presales market.
A new wave of projects is expected in the fall.
Hancock said the pace of pre-sales has slowed in the last two months, but he expects a “large wave” of new launches in the fall.
Hancock attributes the slowdown to developers postponing projects because of market conditions, and some projects being delayed in the approvals process.
He said projects priced right and in the right location — near rapid transit — are doing well, citing strong sales at the Solo District condo project in Burnaby that started pre-sales this past weekend.
Hancock noted that 55 per cent of the concrete condos introduced to the market this year have been sold, with most sales in the first quarter and “the second quarter showing slower uptake.”
He also said it’s “too early to tell” if the slowing resale market is a factor in developers delaying projects.
The presales market can’t be doing too bad when we have big projects like Marine Gateway selling out in 4 hours. The odd thing is some people are reporting seeing bus ads for this development.
Why spend money advertising something that isn’t for sale anymore? Can anyone confirm these ads?
The good news is they have a plan to deal with the smell.
July 25th, 2012 at 12:09 am 1
Does anyone have completion dates on those presale condos in DT, metrotown areas?
I think thats when the death sprial begins….
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July 25th, 2012 at 2:57 am 2
@G:
One place to look up completion dates of pre-sales:
http://www.buzzbuzzhome.com/city/canada/british-columbia/vancouver
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July 25th, 2012 at 3:48 am 3
One of the shit holes I am keeping an eye on is Quattro in Surrey (www.quattroliving.ca). These guys are SCREWED! They have been desperately trying to sell these condos for years. Instead of just lowering the prices to market value, they have decided to try and spend even more money on advertising. So every week I got more quattro flyers in the mail and have to read about their stupid promotions. But the icing on the cake was a couple of months ago when some genius there came out with “The Greatest New Home Sales Event” (that’s what it’s actually called).
From what I can gather (in the 7 seconds I spent on their website before I vomited everywhere), anyone who buys a Quattro condo gets to pick from $2,500 of overpriced garbage, like baby cribs and mp3 players. Oh, and you are entered to win a trip for 2 to one of “six exciting destinations”. But the real kicker??? “HURRY, THERE’S ONLY 50 LEFT!!!”. The website has said that for 2 months now, so I am guessing there is no “hurry” anymore.
Worst of all, these dumps are an eyesore. Future low rise crack shacks, with an active strip club still operating right across the street. They don’t mention that in their advertising though. Down we go……
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July 25th, 2012 at 7:08 am 4
@ScubaSteve
I remember reading a few years back how the original Quattro buyers wanted to sue the developer for false advertising. The developer made ads promising that the Whalley area of Surrey would become the next Yaletown. These buyers claim that this promise is what got them to buy. Well, no surprise, Whalley hasn’t turned out to be the next Yaletown. So they wanted to sue for false advertising.
WHO IN THEIR RIGHT MIND WOULD BELIEVE WHALLEY WOULD BECOME THE NEXT YALETOWN!?! I actually remember seeing those ads at skytrain stations and I just laughed at the time. Anyone who knows anything about Yaletown knows what a ridiculous claim that is. Yaletown started off as an industrial area full of warehouses. Many of the warehouses were renovated into loft apartments with shops below. Only later did the gleeming glass towers spring up.
Whalley is not an industrial area. There are very few warehouses in Whalley so it is not possible to create loft apartments in former warehouses in Whalley. Whalley has long been SFH residential — Yaletown was never that. So you’re starting with a different form of development from the get go — that shapes how the neighbourhood may transfer. Also, Quattro is low rise apartments — there is very little of that in Yaletown, which is all lofts/warehouses and high rises. Yaletown is by the waterfront in the downtown area. Whalley is not by the waterfront and it’s in the suburbs. Yaletown and Whalley couldn’t be more different. No one with a brain in their head could ever believe Whalley could become something like Yaletown. Yes, Whalley is gentrifying. I know because I live here and I see it every day. But even if it ever fully gentrifies and all the druggies and homeless are pushed out, the neighbourhood will never feel anything like Yaletown.
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July 25th, 2012 at 7:22 am 5
This plan to demolish the viaducts and build a super road/condos/parks/affordable housing is really bugging me.
It just makes me sick because there is no arguing with these biking ideologues. I just hope they demolish the viaducts, the real estate crash takes hold, and Vancouver ends up with a series of half-built condo towers right on false creek where the viaducts used to be. It will look like a giant monument to how f*^ked Vancouver is. And I think it’s one more nail in the coffin for shopping downtown and on Robson Street if people can’t drive into downtown.
I really hate how they are talking about brining back Hogan’s Alley and they are talking about preserving Vancouver’s history that was lost with urban renewal/highway construction of the viaducts and how it displaced the black community. Um, if they actually cared about Vancouver’s heritage they wouldn’t have demolished the pantages theatre, building at Robson and Granville. If they were actually opposed to the displacement of low income locals, they wouldn’t have allowed the Little Mountain redevelopment.
Vision Vancouver is so full of contradictions. They are anti car and they want Vancouver to be the greenest city in the world. If they’re so anit-car, why is it that under Mayor Moonbeam we have cars parked right on the sidewalk of Granville Street. Granville Street downtown is Vancouver’s equivalent to Toronto’s Yonge Street or San Fran’s Market street, etc. It’s our main drag downtown. Why are we allowing cars to park right on the sidewalk where pedestrians are supposed to be — on our main drag right downtown. That doesn’t give tourists the impression we are pedestrian friendly, green etc.
The viaducts are good for pedestrians because they keep the cars separated from where the people are. Tearing down the viaducts will just destroy the whole area. Oh and I forgot to say we had a Georgia Viaduct back in 1915 at that spot, an older version. So there’s always been a viaduct there — long before the 1960s plans to build a big highway through the downtown. So they are telling a very selective story about our history to make this sound like it’s something about preserving character, sense of place, environmentalism, livability. NO IT”S NOT, IT”S ALL ABOUT FREEING UP LAND FOR DEVELOPERS AND SATISFYING THE BIKING IDEOLOGUES. Isn’t Vancouver supposed to become a retirement community with all the old people from the rest of Canada selling their digs and retiring here. I hear that all the time from bubble deniers. Senior citizens cannot bike into the downtown!
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July 25th, 2012 at 7:23 am 6
Bus ads: Why spend money advertising something that isn’t for sale anymore? Can anyone confirm these ads?
I have seen them recently. My guess is they were bought prior to Marine Gateway selling out. The ads probably have to stay on for a minimum time. They can’t just take the buses off the road to strip ads and offer a refund because sales go well.
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July 25th, 2012 at 7:24 am 7
Ranting so much I forgot to post the link
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Vancovuer+proposed+Super+road+mean+early+death+viaducts/6983485/story.html
By the way, I am NDP. But I am a real class politics NDPers. I’m not one of these identity politics/biking politics lefty like Vision Vancouver. Part of why I’m so sick about it is these are the people who are supposed to represent the left wing. We are so F-ed!
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July 25th, 2012 at 7:36 am 8
4 joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: “WHO IN THEIR RIGHT MIND WOULD BELIEVE WHALLEY WOULD BECOME THE NEXT YALETOWN!?!”
Simple misunderstanding. The developer’s spokesperson has a speech impediment. They meant ‘Aletown’: 50, X, Laker….
No change in other words.
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July 25th, 2012 at 8:12 am 9
WHO IN THEIR RIGHT MIND WOULD BELIEVE WHALLEY WOULD BECOME THE NEXT YALETOWN!?! I
——
I almost spit out my morning coffee when I read this, because a 27 year old colleague went out and bought in that area in late 2009, claiming exactly that – that whalley would be the new yaletown.
My other bearish colleague and I almost laughed when she said this during a staff meeting, as he actually lives in Surrey. She was so proud that she wrote in the office log “off to get my mortgage approved for my first place – smiley face”
She was married to a guy that works at the bank, and they have since bought another place. They are renting the whalley place, and claim that their rent covers their mortgage payment. When questioned further, they didn’t factor in property taxes, insurance, and strata fees..
I cannot wait till this twit gets burned…
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July 25th, 2012 at 8:48 am 10
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs:
There are a lot of vested interests in taking down the viaducts. It seems to me that the biking groups are the lowest on the totem pole. Developers, city planners, and the local residents are driving this thing. Not sure why you feel the need to point fingers at cyclists for all the ills of Vancouver.
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July 25th, 2012 at 8:56 am 11
@ScubaSteve:
Isn’t Quattro one of the ones that burnt down a couple years ago?
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July 25th, 2012 at 9:08 am 12
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs (but not U.S. gunmen):
An emotional rant is fun, but that sort of emotional reasoning is the same mental process that leads people into making mistakes like buying million dollar crack-shacks.
Better to have a calm rational analysis of the situation. For example, in analyzing the Vancouver housing bubble, it’s useful to make reference to previous housing bubbles here and in other places, to see what their experience is, trying to figure out why, if any reason, it’s different here, or this time.
So, on the topic of removing elevated expressways from an urban area, why not look at previous examples where this was done. Luckily, the internet is big and it is easy to find analyses of this nature.
For example, here’s a report from the City Of Seattle that covers a number of mostly North American examples:
Study (pdf)
I like this study because it specifically tries to identify relevant ways in which the previous cases are similar or different to their own. As far as I can tell, there are no cases where removal of an elevated freeway ‘destroyed the whole area’ or caused it to be ‘fucked’, nor does it seem that the freeway removals over the decades in Portland, San Francisco, Boston, Seoul, Chattanooga, Trenton and Milwaukee were all motivated by ‘BIKING IDEOLOGUES’.
Based on the history it seems likely that the viaduct removal will lead to a more pleasant, vibrant neighbourhood and rapidly rising property values – but maybe it is different here/this time.
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July 25th, 2012 at 9:13 am 13
@Dr. Nick Riviera:
…you nailed it. This is one of those few projects that most interest groups can get behind. The only group that’s left out are suburban commuters, who feel they’re victims of a class war. (@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs, you seem like a reasonable guy when you aren’t fired up about cyclists. I’m not thinking specifically of you here.)
Guess what? If you’re surgically attached to your car, it *should* seem like class warfare. But, that complicated assembly of nubbins below your waistline (no, not those nubbins, the other ones) forms a pretty effective means of locomotion. If you start leaving the gas pedal at home, you’ll find it easy to stop taking the whole thing so personally.
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July 25th, 2012 at 9:43 am 14
If your smart you’ll use this as a chance to buy before prices go up higher. Buying a presale condo is one of the smartest investments you can make.
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July 25th, 2012 at 10:07 am 15
Capital Economics calling for a 25% decline in house prices:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/07/25/canadian-housing-looks-to-be-in-soft-landing-but-actually-heading-for-25-crash-capital-economics/
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July 25th, 2012 at 10:29 am 16
wtf……did these people buying at the Marine Gateway project know that it smelled like garbage?
was this info out before the pre-sales went on sale? and/or can you actually smell the garbage from the sales office?
this blows my mind..
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July 25th, 2012 at 10:32 am 17
@Don Lapre: Maybe that lawyer yesterday would take these experts’ opinion of 25% “crash”?
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July 25th, 2012 at 10:53 am 18
Just walked by Northgate in New West which is just a big hole in the ground at the moment. No smell but I’m sure they will enjoy the six lanes of new Patullo bridge coming soon.
Actually I feel bad for the old condo tower that is just behind it which is going to lose alot of river views. C’est la vie ..
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July 25th, 2012 at 10:57 am 19
@donald:
“Actually I feel bad for the old condo tower that is just behind it which is going to lose alot of river views. C’est la vie ..”
Buying any place without a protected view seems like a fools game to me. Views often come with a 10-20% price premium, which could be obliterated in an instant.
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July 25th, 2012 at 11:13 am 20
Watching NVan to some degree and it finally looks like the market has stopped in the last month.
My take is lack of demand will do its work in due course, but would be accelerated by further Euro/chinese economic and financial catastrophe this fall.
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July 25th, 2012 at 11:44 am 21
http://www.vancouversun.com/homes/Vibrant+Brentwood+district+goes+Solo/6977673/story.html
“Appia Developments will soon be pre-selling Solo District – “South of Lougheed.”
This article (ad?) is from Monday July 23th. I thought Solo started presales last Saturday (July 21)? Anyone has updates?
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July 25th, 2012 at 11:50 am 22
@Vote Down The Facts: …..Buying any place without a protected view seems like a fools game to me. Views often come with a 10-20% price premium, which could be obliterated in an instant….
Ya, and look at the legions of suckers that were sold the false creek views over and over again. P. T. Barnum was right!
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July 25th, 2012 at 11:52 am 23
Every day driving around Burnaby you can see a bewildering number of half built or just completed condo towers and townhome complexes. I have no numbers to back it up, but just visually estimating, there is a huge number of new units appearing in a short span of time.
I find myself wondering every day what the people who are going to move into these units will do for an income, as I do not see the same proportionate increase in office, commercial, and industrial space occurring in this span of time.
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July 25th, 2012 at 12:08 pm 24
woah anyone watching BNN right now?
Doak interview
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July 25th, 2012 at 12:14 pm 25
@Navin R. Johnson:
Yes, Quattro was the dump that burned down (torched by an angry homeowner is my guess). You could see the flames from Vancouver and the thing went up like a pile of twigs. They didn’t replace the foundation (which was all shot to hell) and instead patched it up and got some sketchy engineer to say it was all good. The owners sued the developer saying they had agreed to buy a new building, not a half burnt building with a heat affected foundation. Last I heard, the lawsuits were dropped in 2009 when suddenly the market picked up again and the owners wanted their units at presale prices. What a surprise. Seems like they didn’t care anymore. One guy was a realtor and said he had bought 10 units or something, what a meat head. To this day, those units in Quattro sell below the cost back in 2008. People realize that they can get a high rise somewhere else for the same price.
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July 25th, 2012 at 12:19 pm 26
@vangrl
Give us that don’t have access to a TV at the moment a summary of the interview.
Thanks!
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July 25th, 2012 at 12:22 pm 27
http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/
Inventory increase by region over the 19 weeks
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July 25th, 2012 at 12:22 pm 28
Single Family Home Inventory Graph
Richmond’s inventory is at the highest point in the history.
http://vancouverpricedrop.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/inventory.jpg
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July 25th, 2012 at 12:31 pm 29
@TPFKAA:
Astronaut families, black market? These areas are predominantly targeting Chinese making $$ in their parallel non-taxable universe.
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July 25th, 2012 at 12:39 pm 30
I watched Doak and while I don’t agree with everything he said, I am very much opposed to selling Canadian assets to SOE’s (state-owned enterprises) — CNOOC’s offer to buy Nexen.
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July 25th, 2012 at 1:57 pm 31
New Listings 170
Back On Market Listings 9
Price Changes 163
Sold Listings 79
AS OF 1:57PM
All lower mainland
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July 25th, 2012 at 2:01 pm 32
@HFHC: Looks like another slow day for sales. I like the price changes outpace the sales by double, almost as much as listing. This market is going down fast.
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July 25th, 2012 at 2:12 pm 33
Paul mentioned yesterday that he’s updated his stats so I had a look.
Richmond detached is on pace to end the month with about 21 MOI.
http://www.paulboenisch.com/Dexterselectmarketstats.ubr
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July 25th, 2012 at 2:16 pm 34
I see Teranet new numbers are out (http://www.housepriceindex.ca/). I know the indicator lags but it appears to not be showing the expected price declines with even the June update.
Teranet has frequently been cited as a good proxy for market conditions by both bears and bulls. What is the interpretation here?
I am in the ‘horrid sales numbers will beget ever lower prices’ camp, but Teranet seems to show otherwise.
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July 25th, 2012 at 2:26 pm 35
@Someguy:
Why would you be expecting price declines for the month of June?
Also note that Teranet gets its information from land titles, which don’t get updated until closing. So a July sale would likely get to them around their September index.
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July 25th, 2012 at 2:47 pm 36
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs:
“I just hope they demolish the viaducts, the real estate crash takes hold, and Vancouver ends up with a series of half-built condo towers right on false creek where the viaducts used to be. It will look like a giant monument to how f*^ked Vancouver is.”
I have the same fantasy
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July 25th, 2012 at 3:17 pm 37
@Best place on meth:
Taking a look at the detached stats, I see the following pace for the end of the month
VAN WEST = 84 sales (down 40% YOY)
VAN EAST = 112 sales (down 23% YOY)
NORTH VAN = 69 sales (down 25% YOY)
WEST VAN = 36 sales (down 59% YOY)
RICHMOND = 61 sales (down 51% YOY)
Prices in West Van and Richmond are the worst. They will once again likely drag the entire average price down.
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July 25th, 2012 at 3:30 pm 38
@gokou3:
How do we know that they’re real economists? Ben Stein (in the US) claims to be an economist, but nobody has seen his PhD diploma.
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July 25th, 2012 at 3:33 pm 39
@Vote Down The Facts:
I know two couples personally for whom this is now an issue, who were upset because “my realtor told me that nothing would be built to block our view.”
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July 25th, 2012 at 3:33 pm 40
@gokou3: “Maybe that lawyer yesterday would take these experts’ opinion of 25% “crash”?”
How consistent are ‘experts’ collectively at successfully predicting *any* future event? Thinking back to the US housing crisis here. Ask enough experts and you’ll probably get answers that cover any possible outcome. One of them is always bound to be right.
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July 25th, 2012 at 3:47 pm 41
40 Vote Down The Facts Says: “How consistent are ‘experts’ collectively at successfully predicting *any* future event?”
I predict a cold winter for Edmonton.
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July 25th, 2012 at 3:52 pm 42
@fixie guy: ….I predict a cold winter for Edmonton. ….
Poster is obviously not an Edmonton Realtor.
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July 25th, 2012 at 4:02 pm 43
http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/Finance/20120726/News/ea_eaa1.htm
Purchased in 1999 at 7M CAD And trying to sell for 75M CAD now after 11 years. Not a bad return for 11 years!!!
Another property setting record for selling for 12000 CAD/sqf. You read it right. It’s 12,000 CAD /sqf.
Who says that bubble can’t stay a lot longer than most people expect. Meanwhile, those people already pocketed in 10x return.
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July 25th, 2012 at 4:08 pm 44
@Vote Down The Facts:
The fact is that housing busts are highly predictable using simple metrics.
When “experts” fail to predict busts it’s because they don’t want to get it right, not because it’s difficult to get it right.
The problem is that almost everyone working in finance or economics has an interest in the future direction of the RE market, even if it’s just through their own house. Thus they already have a built in conflict of interest in predicting future market directions.
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July 25th, 2012 at 4:15 pm 45
@rksleung: that link is all Greek to me !
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July 25th, 2012 at 4:49 pm 46
@fixie guy: “I predict a cold winter for Edmonton.”
That’s the flip side of it – if you happen to get that prediction right (and there’s no guarantee, mind), it doesn’t make you a meteorologist.
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July 25th, 2012 at 4:51 pm 47
@rksleung: “Trying to sell for 75 Million” is different from “Succeeded in getting 75 Million”.
BTW, I’m selling my calico cat for 3.2 Million… Any takers? Other than missing a set of gonads, he’s fully functional.
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July 25th, 2012 at 5:10 pm 48
@Bo Xilai: Explain to me why Mainland China market is red hot again then after the two latest two interest rate decrease? Explain to me why developer was setting a listing price of 100M for mansion just ouside of Beijing then?
A developer just paid $5000/sqf recently for the Peak in HK. And that’s just land price only. So, even if the guy was overlisting at $9000/sqf. How about 30% or 50%. At 50% from the list price, it would still be selling at $35M. That’s 5 times in 10 years still.
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July 25th, 2012 at 5:17 pm 49
Good Garth post today http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/07/25/sea-change/
Focus is “stagnation” and how sellers are refusing to accept the price reductions that buyers believe are merited.
What troubles me is the suggestion this period could last two full years!
I can’t imagine that anyone would be happy with that.
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July 25th, 2012 at 5:23 pm 50
@Vote Down The Facts:
Amen. If our credential-seeking anonymous lawyer is still lurking, here’s a link that you’d do well to read.
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/07/10/how-economists-get-tripped-up-by-statistics/
The surprising part about this is that most of the economists (with PhDs) surveyed believed that they would be able to more easily answer the question posed if given numbers, rather than only the chart shown at the top. If you’ve taken any statistics classes, the answer should be immediately obvious…
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July 25th, 2012 at 5:30 pm 51
Selling London now on HGTV. There are tons of rich people out there.
Apartment for 1.4M-1.8M for typical new apartments. Mansion for 70M in Kennsington. How about all the top paintings auctioned at > 100M? How about China being the top auctions market consistently since 2008, surpassing the US? How about the Chinese buying up the Bordeaux vineyard estates?
Rich people just get richer. Face it. It’s a fact. The reason is not that the rich exploiting the poors as socialist would like to categorize. The reason is the rich has good connections with the government, which knows nothing other than printing money. Stop the government monopoly on money and everyone will be on a level-playing field.
This money-printing just screws up everything. QE3 coming. Count on it. The US knows nothing other than money printing. The newly printed will push commodities, especially agri-commodities further up. The average folks will need to allocate more to food while the rich with connections will keep on grabbing the newly printed money and secretly convert them to gold. Once the paper currency destroys itself and world government will impose a new currency at 1=100 old currency. Count on this occuring.
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July 25th, 2012 at 5:40 pm 52
@ rksleung
The devil’s in the details…
However, other numbers tell a very different story. According to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, total floor space sold was down -9.3% YoY in May, and -3.3% YoY in June. Total sales in June rebounded to +6.9% YoY, the first gain this year, but hardly makes a dent compared to the 33% YoY increase in units for sale. Meanwhile, land sales resumed their downward slide to -22.4% YoY in June, and new starts were down -16.3% YoY that month, the worst this year.
Don’t Be Fooled By China’s Real Estate Rally
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July 25th, 2012 at 5:42 pm 53
@moses: What troubles me is the suggestion this period could last two full years!
That’s how it works and there’s a good reason for it. When buyers dissapear most sellers at first are simply dissappointed they can’t sell for a peak price, but arent driven to lower their price because they usually live in the house and can wait “for the market to recover”.
Meanwhile there are always ‘must sells’ on the market as well: foreclosures, divorce, death or illness, Job loss, etc. These prices drop to sell driving down all comps.
If the guy waiting out the market suddenly turns into a ‘must sell’ by then the price they can get is even lower.
This cycle is exacerbated in a bubble because price outrun rental value by so much. Anyone who bought at reasonable price levels can usually simply rent out the home if they want, bubble buyers can’t do that without bleeding lots of cash.
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July 25th, 2012 at 5:54 pm 54
New Listings 216
Price Changes 164
Sold Listings 103
TI:19308
http://www.paulboenisch.com
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July 25th, 2012 at 5:54 pm 55
My rant about the proposed demolition of the viaducts was misunderstood as a rant against bicycling. I wrote that very quickly this morning before going to work and I did not express myself properly. So I am going to try again.
Dr. Nick Riviera said: “Not sure why you feel the need to point fingers at cyclists for all the ills of Vancouver.”
That is not my intention. Let me say first that I do not drive. I take transit everywhere in Metro Vancouver. I have nothing against cyclists. What I am upset about is how Vision Vancouver is using cycling as a way to portray Vancouver as a radically progressive city. That is what I mean by biking as an ideology. We can ignore the fact that people are being pushed out of their city by high housing costs, we can ignore forced government displacement of 200 families at Little Mountain, we can ignore poverty, low wage, etc. We can ignore all of that and still come off as a progressive city as long as we put up a few bike lanes. I am upset that cycling politics has displaced class politics.
Some Guy said they are removing viaducts in cities around the world and pointed to Seattle. Believe me, I know all about that. I am an urbanist. And when they remove waterfront viaducts in other cities they actually have a plan to deal with where the traffic is going to go. In the case of Vancouver, they are simply reducing road capacity and hoping people will opt to cycle or take transit into downtown. This is going to mean more traffic on nearby roads. They are already protesting on Prior Street about that. Just watch, more traffic on Hastings will mean more pedestrian fatalities. It’s so predictable I can see the headlines in the Vancouver Sun right now.
The hypocricy is something that really irks me. The Vancouver Sun article talks about how the viaducts were built in the 1960s as part of a major highway plan that was never built, the article talks about how it resulted in the demolition of parts of Chinatown and the city’s black area around Hogan’s alley. They are talking about urban renewal here. Urban renewal/highway construction in the 1960s is something I know a great deal about. It was devastating. It displaced low income minorities from central areas of cities. Large areas were demolished resulting in a loss of sense of place, a loss of character, a loss of anything uniquely identifying of a place. Vision Vancouver is trying to cast themselves as being opposed to that urban renewal, as being progressive, as wanting to create a city with character and sense of place. But the contradiction is that we basically are going through a new form of urban renewal right now with this condo boom. Buildings with unique character are being demolished to make way for condos. The Pantages Theatre on Hastings is an example. The building at Granville and Robson is another example. The Little Mountain redevelopment is like Urban Renewal 2.0 — it’s a total throwback to urban renewal from the 60s: large scale demolition, erasing all sense of what was once there, whole scale displacement of hundreds of residents, lack of transparency, democracy, government pressure tactics to get people to move. If you read the urban renewal literature from the 1960s, it’s all happened all over again at Little Mountain in the 200s. We are living through another form of urban renewal right now and Vision Vancouver is complicit with it. So it’s the height of hypocracy for them to cast themselves as progressive urban planners who would never engage in urban renewal type approach to urban development. And yes they are telling a selective story about the viaducts. It is true they were built in the 60s as part of an urban renewal/highway expansion plan that displaced local people. BUT there was already a viaduct there from 1915. So it is disingenious to say the viaducts were not part of that place before the 1960s. They are part of the sense of place, viaducts were there since 1915 and the currents ones since the 1960s. They have become part of the sense of place that is there now.
Some Guy said: “As far as I can tell, there are no cases where removal of an elevated freeway ‘destroyed the whole area’ or caused it to be ‘fucked’”
Well Vancouver will be a first then. Look at the volume of traffic they have on those viaducts. Grade separation means those viaducts are keeping that traffic away from people at ground level. We are now going to have all that traffic on the surface level where people are–on the new super road (whatever that means) and on other nearby roads like Hastings and Pacific. I would argue that this increased traffic on local reads will undermine the urban livability of the area. As a pedestrian if I had to cross a highway at ground level with traffic volumes equivalent to those viaducts, I would be very scared. It means more traffic for pedestrians to have to deal with. I don’t see how that makes the False Creek area a more pleasant area to be in.
I pointed out how elderly people cannot cycle. This is a serious point. Vision Vancouver wants to portray themselves as “inclusionary” and celebrating of “diversity”. But their obsession with cycling is anything but inclusionary. People with disabilities and elderly people cannot cycle. This is not diversity. Diversity accepts people of all body types, including those who cannot cycle.
Turkey said: “The only group that’s left out are suburban commuters, who feel they’re victims of a class war.”
A few things. First, I don’t think it’s true that the viaducts are primarily used by suburban commuters. I think an awful lot of people who live in the City of Vancouver use the viaducts. I grew up in Vancouver but have been displaced to Surrey by high housing costs. Ever since moving to Surrey, I have to say I have been on the viaducts less than when I lived in Vancouver. But I think it is true that there is this push to exclude suburbanites from the downtown. Look how the riot has been blamed on people from Surrey. Again, this goes against how lefties and Vision Vancouver want to be seen as inclusionary. No they are not inclusionary. Tearing down the viaducts is a metophor for putting up a wall against suburbanites from coming into downtown. This push to exclude people based on residential geography irks me, especially coming from a party that wants to be seen as progressive, inclusionary. A lot of those suburbanites are the original Vancouverites whose ancestors built this city. Is downtown going to be a vibrant downtown for all of Metro Vancouver’s 2 million + population or is it going to be an exclusive enclave for the rich who can afford to live there? If it’s enclave, then it’s really almost like a suburb at that point, it’s not a real downtown unless belongs to everyone in this Metropolitan region.
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July 25th, 2012 at 6:01 pm 56
@ReadyToPop: Excellent blog. The author would definitely be proven correct but I questioned the timing. He underestimated the herd mentality among the chinese. Chinese is among the top, if not the top, group of people who would stampede on each other to outbid each other.
There is no way that the gov there would be able to maintain its targeted growth rate without resorting back to its old trick of pushing the real estate further up. When this finally burst, it will be of a magnitude several times the Tulip mania.
I really question the timing since the china gov still have a coffin of money to keep it going. In the last 30-40 years, give me an example of a government that are willing to take the medicine and let the recession run its course and let the free market take over till its equilibrium. The last I know. The French insisted on lowering the pension age limit. The Spanish gov still trying to hide the bad debts within its local banks. The Italian government? ha ha.. Greece? What has it done to improve its people productivity? The US? Money printing as usual. The UK? Last I heard is that they have just embarked on another QE. No one is willing to take the medicine.
You can rest assured that China will engage in whatever stimulus plan to prop up its property market again until it reaches an epic finale.
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July 25th, 2012 at 6:06 pm 57
For those who voted down my post.
“This money-printing just screws up everything. QE3 coming. Count on it. The US knows nothing other than money printing. The newly printed will push commodities, especially agri-commodities further up. The average folks will need to allocate more to food while the rich with connections will keep on grabbing the newly printed money and secretly convert them to gold. Once the paper currency destroys itself and world government will impose a new currency at 1=100 old currency. Count on this occuring.
”
Mark this comment. Apparently, you voted down the above comment because you disagree that the US is printing money. When this paper currency collapases, don’t say I don’t warn you.
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July 25th, 2012 at 6:10 pm 58
The fact that today’s 103 sales is the highest of the last 6 days says a lot about this post July 9 market.
The same period last year had 236, 144, 115, 141, 139, 141.
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July 25th, 2012 at 6:10 pm 59
@rksleung:
“When this paper currency collapases, don’t say I don’t warn you.”
Gold prices will collapse way before that. Good luck.
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July 25th, 2012 at 6:18 pm 60
@Vote Down The Facts: Talk back in 10 years and see who will be correct then.
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July 25th, 2012 at 6:36 pm 61
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs:
“Look how the riot has been blamed on people from Surrey. ”
You’re number one!
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July 25th, 2012 at 7:01 pm 62
rksleung & Vote Down The Facts, if this site is still here in 10 years, we’ll all be able to see if one, the other, or neither of you is correct. That’s the nifty thing about predictions and the internet; the predictions are there for posterity. Thanks to both of you for being bold enough to make your predictions while being relatively respectful to one another.
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July 25th, 2012 at 7:20 pm 63
@patriotz
Yes, I know that is true. Surrey contributed more rioters to the Stanley Cup riot than any other municipality in Metro Vancouver.
So that empirical reality leads to this impulse in Downtown Vancouver among the residents there to want to exclude people from the suburbs from coming downtown. I hear it from Downtowners all the time, how they don’t want people coming into their neighbourhood from the suburbs. It’s the tension created from having a large residential community located within what functions as the downtown core for a metro region of 2 million. Understandably, Downtown residents do not appreciate the distasteful behaviour of those from the suburbs who come downtown to party. Although maybe these downtown residents should have considered that before deciding to live downtown. Being in an area that hums with human activity and business and socializing and bars is all part of the reason why people should want to live downtown. Although our downtown has always had a residential component, I think the condo boom has residentialized our downtown more than it used to be. So it takes on some of the NIMBY aspects of the suburbs and this desire to exclude (which we also often see in the suburbs).
This desire among downtowners to exclude suburbanites and build walls is something we can understand and explain.
BUT the point I am making is that this desire to exclude suburbanites conflicts with Vision Vancouver/lefty discourse on inclusion and diversity.
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July 25th, 2012 at 7:25 pm 64
Just a follow up to this last point I made: “BUT the point I am making is that this desire to exclude suburbanites conflicts with Vision Vancouver/lefty discourse on inclusion and diversity.”
This is especially the case when you consider that so many suburbanites are originally from Vancouver, grew up in Vancouver, were forced out of Vancouver by high housing costs, ancestors built Vancouver, attended school in Vancouver, continue to attend school and work in Vancouver (even after they’ve been forced out of Vancouver), and socialize and shop in Vancouver.
Just because somebody lives in Surrey doesn’t mean they don’t belong to community in Vancouver. I’ve lived in Vancouver, Burnaby, New West, Surrey, Delta, Langley.
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July 25th, 2012 at 7:33 pm 65
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs: “Downtown residents do not appreciate the distasteful behaviour of those from the suburbs who come downtown to party. Although maybe these downtown residents should have considered that before deciding to live downtown”
So we should just accept the distasteful behavior? Why don’t you just except all the stuff you have been complaining all day long? You should have considered these things before deciding to stay in the lower mainland.
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July 25th, 2012 at 7:46 pm 66
@Anonymous
“So we should just accept the distasteful behavior?”
I didn’t say that. Public policy making/urban planning requires the intellectual ability to juggle many balls at the same time. I don’t think people should be forced to accept hooliganism in their residential communities and I certainly don’t think the riot was acceptable. I am making a very nuanced point.
There could be innumberable solutions to this problem:
-careful planning that allows for a party district/red light district that is physically separated from residential development
-any residential development near party areas/entertainment districts should be oriented toward young single people
-dealing with the fundamental reasons why people rioted (something I don’t want to get into–but I think we have a form of social anomie setting in because of larger issues
-having affordable housing/social housing options for elderly people and disabled people all around the city as opposed to having much of it clustered in the downtown area as it is now (there are benefits to having elderly people living downtown such as close to hospitals, but we also need social housing for elderly people outside of downtown and in suburbs because I think it is the elderly who are the most sensitive to hooliganism in the downtown core)
To a certain point I suppose we do have to accept young people like to party, drink, and get rowdy out in public. We just need to find ways to mitigate the damage.
European countries use things like the running of the bulls/tomato fights to relieve this pent up social aggression among young men.
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July 25th, 2012 at 8:28 pm 67
rumour is that Microsoft Games Vancouver laid off some people today … the industry continues to bleed
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July 25th, 2012 at 8:32 pm 68
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs: “There could be innumberable solutions to this problem:”
How about banning people from Surrey from entering the downtown core.
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July 25th, 2012 at 8:41 pm 69
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs: There’s a lot to like in your comment.
I used the term “culture war”, and I think I meant it. Try a mix-and-match: on one side, you’ve got cyclists, pedestrians, urbanists, lefties, and university profs; on the other, you’ve got suburbanites, commuters, and soccer moms. Drawing the battle lines that way is reductive to the point of being insulting, but it pretty accurately describes the state of civil discourse in the city. City hall didn’t start this fire, although they’ve certainly added some live ammunition. That, ultimately, is my point: it’s really easy to focus on a particular lightning rod (cyclists or commuters) and champion or blame Vision’s policies, but the dysfunction is collective and the trench warfare is just a distraction. People are anxious and angry, and if it wasn’t cyclists, it’d be something else. I hope you don’t mind if I use your original comment, and reply, as an illustration.
The city can’t win here. The level of public discourse is so low, and so poisonous, that they aren’t allowed to plan for the long term (without being accused of ignoring public will) or not plan for the long term (or be accused of governing by checklist.)
In broad strokes, though, you’re complaining about economic forces over which the city has very little control. It’s now fashionable (and thus expensive) to live downtown again. Combined with the property boom, we’ve got large-scale redevelopment and the trust-fund douchebags that drive all of us nuts. (Yaletown, is that you?) These economic forces gentrify neighbourhoods and displace long-time residents, and there is nothing the city can realistically do to stop it.
…but I was talking about the viaducts, from my selfish perspective as a Strathcona renter. For me, bringing down the viaducts is an unqualified win. (…and I think the local protests are frankly paranoid.) It’s not the quantity of traffic that makes Prior dangerous, it’s the speed — people drive faster on the Viaduct than they ever would on at-grade streets. Prior serves as an on- or off-ramp, with speeds to match. The city claims traffic volume will decrease, which we can argue about. However, it’s clear that the speed on Prior will come down no matter what. From my perspective, the benefits of bringing down the viaducts are so huge that they’d really have to muff whatever comes next. I just hope Vision doesn’t take that as a challenge.
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July 25th, 2012 at 9:06 pm 70
@Anonymous:
not showing up on dailyjobcuts.com yet..
did see “Capcom Vancouver lays off 20 staff”
Thursday, 19th July 2012
Dead Rising 2 developer trims seven per cent of employees due to ‘unsuitable fit with studio goals’
http://www.develop-online.net/news/41461/Capcom-Vancouver-lays-off-20-staff
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July 25th, 2012 at 9:07 pm 71
@Anonymous #67:
not showing up on dailyjobcuts.com yet..
did see “Capcom Vancouver lays off 20 staff”
Thursday, 19th July 2012
Dead Rising 2 developer trims seven per cent of employees due to ‘unsuitable fit with studio goals’
http://www.develop-online.net/news/41461/Capcom-Vancouver-lays-off-20-staff
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July 25th, 2012 at 9:44 pm 72
@Anonymous:
How about banning everyone from the burbs into downtown and completely wiping the downtown economy right out…
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July 25th, 2012 at 9:52 pm 73
Nice weather – out drinking – sorry for being late.
Today’s Detached and attached sales were 102.
Pre July 10 was 35
Post July 9 was 67.
Almost exactly the same as yesterday.
As you can see, the pre-July 10 sales are trickling in and the post July 9 sales are creeping up.
Really like the PaulB pdf file with all the data. Tells the exact same story I’m seeing now as well. Van-West however is really stubborn for priceon the way down. Have to wonder if it will hold the current level or not.
Richmond is still dead really. That one has to fall.
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July 25th, 2012 at 9:54 pm 74
Either Spain or Greece will have to depart from the Euro – in the long term that is probably good for the world economy; in the short term there will be swings financial markets.
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July 25th, 2012 at 9:59 pm 75
@Anonymous:
Confirmed. Microsoft on Cambie closed, 35 lay offs.
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July 25th, 2012 at 10:14 pm 76
@Vote Down The Facts: I wonder if the Belmont Ave office is still open.
http://tinyurl.com/cvrref3
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July 25th, 2012 at 10:21 pm 77
today “inside information” says Burnaby presale condo “Moda” has just dropped its remaining units’ price by 10-20%.
fyi its opening day sale was 138 out of 249 units on June 23.
need further confirmation of its “10-20% off sale”
From what I can see, its original ad was “from $289,900″
now it’s “from 279,900″.
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July 25th, 2012 at 10:22 pm 78
@Vote Down The Facts:
also on dailyjobcuts.com ,
“Capcom Vancouver lays off 20 staff”
Thursday, 19th July 2012
Dead Rising 2 developer trims seven per cent of employees due to ‘unsuitable fit with studio goals’
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July 25th, 2012 at 10:22 pm 79
Not sure if anyone saw the CBC financial roundtable discussion on The National last night which focussed heavily on debt. The same four folks that were there last time. Patricia Croft kept insisting Canada would be the *only* country to engineer a soft landing in real estate. She said it twice. Its amazing how arrogant Canadians have become — We. Are. Different.
Preet Banerjee (from G&M) seemed like the only one who seemed to have a sensible scepticism about debt. Everyone else was like “debt is great!, tra la la, go buy a TV on your credit card!!”
I guess I’m just out of touch with the world today. I could never fathom buying a TV if I hadn’t saved for it.
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July 25th, 2012 at 10:29 pm 80
@Navin R. Johnson: “How about banning everyone from the burbs into downtown and completely wiping the downtown economy right out…”
Good idea. Downtown will be fine without them. Generally they don’t spend much money and just do damage anyway.
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July 26th, 2012 at 12:09 pm 81
@patriotz:
So a June sale for Teranet is likely May or possibly even April. Got it, and it explains that the indicator lags more than I thought.
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July 27th, 2012 at 6:30 am 82
[...] property taxes, insurance, and strata fees.. I cannot wait till this twit gets burned…” – SKS at VCI 25 Jul 2012 8:12am Share: This entry was posted in 01. He Said, She Said, 08. Overextended Buyers, 15. Misallocation [...]
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July 28th, 2012 at 10:17 am 83
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