advice, BC, prices

Sales plunge to 10 year low

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The June news release from the REBGV has been released and it looks like the market has turned a corner.

As all of you regular readers here know, sales have plunged to a 10 year low.

The HPI benchmark price has also dropped from the previous month in some areas.  Oddly enough it’s houses in the desirable west side and Richmond which have both dropped about 2% from May.

Best Place on Meth summarizes the total changes for all areas:

Summary of June HPI:

All -0.7%
SFH -0.6%
Apt -0.9%
T/H -0.3%

I was expecting no change for June and declines to start next month so this is a bit of a bonus.

Yes the hot summer market has turned out to be anything but.  As prices drop a few percentage points from their all time highs some are calling this a ‘buyers market‘.

Meanwhile at least one local realtor has sold his own house and says it’s time to cash out.

 

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blueskies
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your quintessential “deer in the headlights” moment…… oh deer!

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6 years 10 months ago
patriotz
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In Vancouver, the seller’s market recedes

Article contains some good stuff mixed with howlers.

While there is anecdotal evidence that foreign investors are losing their appetite for real estate in the Vancouver, experts remain perplexed as to exactly why the city is seeing such a decline in transactions right now.

Maybe nobody left willing and able to pay absurd prices? Like at the top of every bubble?

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6 years 10 months ago
registered
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@2 patriotz: They’re probably still willing, just no longer able. Flaherty is turning off the money tap.

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6 years 10 months ago
patriotz
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But the market had clearly turned before F announced the new rules. Wile E Coyote was already heading down, F just added the anvil.

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6 years 10 months ago
registered
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The data shows markets exploding when lending requirements were dramatically loosened in 2006 and sales collapsing leading into their well publicized and predicted retraction in 2012. Sounds like basic economics.

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6 years 10 months ago
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
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Look at this monstrosity they want to build on False Creek where the viaducts currently are. They are going to demolish the viaducts and build a 2000 unit glass tower that is shaped like a square arch. You have to click on the link and look at the picture to see how ugly this building will truly be. This building will ruin Vancouver’s skyline. It looks like a monumnent to Vancouver’s obsession with bad architecture, glass buildings, and cramped high density living. To top it all off, Mayor Robertson is saying that the viaducts are being demolished to create green space and reduce traffic into downtown. Who actually buys that crap excuse for selling out more land to developers??? http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/proposed-complex-would-pump-life-into-dead-zone/article4391250/ Meanwhile, the protests are already starting the Downtown Eastside over concerns about increased traffic congestion on local roads after the… Read more »
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6 years 10 months ago
Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
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This is serious, very serious, the pumpers weren’t able to engineer a buying panic before the new mortgage rules come into effect, has to mean the supply of greater fools is depleted.

Bill Slut may have to be called upon to pitch a few slow ones to the panel of impartial experts, I suggest Pastrick, Calla, and Tsur.

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6 years 10 months ago
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
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The second link in my post should have been this one, Van Sun article about Prior Street protests due to increased traffic from demolished viaducts:

http://www.vancouversun.com/Prior+Street+residents+plan+protest+against+traffic/6884577/story.html

PS: I know you guys like to stick to real estate economics, but this is just insane. Demolish the viadcuts and put up a glass arch of 2000 units! And this is all coming about as the real estate bubble is popping in the public mind!!!

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6 years 10 months ago
Anonymous
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@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: “this is just insane. Demolish the viadcuts and put up a glass arch of 2000 units!”

The glass arch building is at the Plaza of Nations site. It has nothing to do with the viaducts other than being close by. This proposal could go through without the viaducts coming down and is on private land. I agree the building design is hideous. It is only a proposal from a developer at this point.

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6 years 10 months ago
Anonymous
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@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: “Mayor Robertson is saying that the viaducts are being demolished to create green space and reduce traffic into downtown. Who actually buys that crap excuse for selling out more land to developers???”

Mayor Robertson is trying to reduce cars coming into downtown by creating congestion and limiting parking. This is actually worse for the environment because cars are sitting in traffic idling and driving around in circles looking for parking. The current regime likes to brag about less cars coming into downtown but it is as congested as ever. There may be less cars but cars are spending more time on the road with their engines running which makes the city less ‘livable’ and creates more pollution.

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6 years 10 months ago
piklishi
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CityTV morning news,one of those headlines in the bottom had the following message:
“Vancouver home sales hit 10 year low, the board declares buyers market”.

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6 years 10 months ago
Bo Xilai
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REGVB has a guide to explain the methodology of HPI…What gobbledygook… There so many loopholes about determining an appropriate “representative” home from a “typical” neighbourhood. If I was in charge of the local HPI, I could fiddle with the selection criteria to ensure there was never a negative number.

I can’t get over how all the local media bleat the HPI as if it was delivered from Moses along with the 10 commandments.

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6 years 10 months ago
Vote Down The Facts
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@piklishi:

Same headline on yesterday’s Vancouver Sun website.

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6 years 10 months ago
McLovin
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Good morning fellow Bears. Its a great time to be a bear in Vancouver. I feel as the Allies must have right after D-day. After years of being beaten down the tide finally turned, the war was won and it was just a matter of time. Victory was inevitable and everyone knew it.

Apr 2012 was our D-Day.

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6 years 10 months ago
Turkey
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@Anonymous: Mayor Robertson is trying to reduce cars coming into downtown by creating congestion and limiting parking. This is actually worse for the environment because cars are sitting in traffic idling and driving around in circles looking for parking. Put bluntly, this is horsesh!t. Extra lanes conjure up extra traffic. Removing lanes causes traffic to disappear — not just to be rerouted, but actually disappear. (Before you get carried away, I didn’t suggest that we remove all roads and dance naked in the forest.) I’ve recently heard a number of pro-Viaduct arguments purportedly made on my behalf (as a Strathcona resident, for example.) Or, arguments in the name of the environment, somehow claiming that removing the viaducts is a regressive move. In each case, I suspect the argument is being made disingenuously by a commuter who passes through the neighbourhood… Read more »
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6 years 10 months ago
van_coffee
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Wooooooooaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhh Horsy…….. Guys, I am probably more bearish than anyone here. Other than my buddy Dave. He is really bearish. (not that Dave, another Dave). I understand the excitement in watching the inventory build, and the knowledge that rates aint coming down this time, and the further knowledge that people are maxed out. I am also quietly optimistic that the mythical “foreign buyer” has settled down a little, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Prices are still sooooo far out of whack relative to rents, incomes and any reasonable return expectation. IF this is “THE BEGINNING”, let’s quietly enjoy this zenn moment. After all, in the words of my former partner “ye who wants it least, wins”. Translate: if you are a foaming-mouth bear chomping at the bit to watch the crash and buy, it will never come to… Read more »
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6 years 10 months ago
starbucker
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@Turkey: “Put bluntly, this is horsesh!t. Extra lanes conjure up extra traffic. Removing lanes causes traffic to disappear — not just to be rerouted, but actually disappear.” ‘conjure up’? ‘disappear’? obviously crippling our transportation system will reduce the number of trips taken as for many the pain will out way the gain of making a trip. but that isn’t a victory, that’s a failure. you think that each trip represents waste. it doesn’t. it represents a tax paying citizen fulfilling a desire. that desire might be to go to school, work at their dream job, or enjoy the outdoors with their family. by making it harder to travel you are adding extreme inefficiently to people’s lives. it’s sad that people have as brainwashed as you are. in the end, only the developers benefit. transportation becomes more and more of a… Read more »
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6 years 10 months ago
patriotz
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@starbucker:
“that desire might be to go to school, work at their dream job, or enjoy the outdoors with their family.”

In downtown Vancouver? I think you’re getting a bit carried away – on all three counts.

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6 years 10 months ago
b5baxter
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@starbucker:

I hate to continue an off-topic conversation but…
@Turkey is right.

The evidence is that removing traffic lanes reduces congestion:
http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/008957.html

And the evidence shows that adding lanes increases pollution:
http://www.sightline.org/research/climate-analysis-gge-new-lanes-10-07/

No city has reduced pollution by building more lanes to “reduce idling.” The only cities that have successfully reduced pollution in recent decades have done so by reducing light duty vehicle traffic and increasing modal share in other forms of transportation.

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6 years 10 months ago
pricedoutfornow
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Did the realtor Keith Roy take his post down? I can’t seem to find it on his blog….

This morning on Global, they announced that it is a “buyers market” but “prices are still going up, the benchmark price is up”. What a bunch of BS-the average person will sit back on their couch and think “Oh good, nothing to worry about, my house is still worth $X” Meanwhile, the average price of SFH in Vancouver has dropped 14%!

Nonsense!

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6 years 10 months ago
BikeMike
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@patriotz
“In downtown Vancouver? I think you’re getting a bit carried away – on all three counts.”

Not necessarily in downtown – for example, I sometimes like to go to Squamish to climb after work in the summertime, but having to fight through downtown traffic after work generally means adding 30 minutes to the drive.

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6 years 10 months ago
patriotz
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@BikeMike:
You don’t use the car to climb do you? The best solution to the problem is to get there other than by driving.

If you really do have to drive to Squamish, living in a location that doesn’t require you to go through downtown might make more sense.

It is impossible in a metro with the number of bottenecks that Vancouver has for everyone to expect to drive anywhere they want conveniently.

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6 years 10 months ago
mac
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It seems the UBC Sauder School of Business has one predominant thought on Vancouver housing: you are displaying entitlement issues if you think housing is here to be used by locals who earn a living here.

OK bears, attack:

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.866289

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6 years 10 months ago
kabloona
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Yeah, where did they dredge up Davidoff? He’s more annoying that Somerville, if that’s possible…..

🙁

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6 years 10 months ago
Anonymous
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@patriotz:
“In downtown Vancouver? I think you’re getting a bit carried away – on all three counts.”

What route do you suggest someone takes if they want to drive from the West Side to Whistler? For many, it’s absolutely necessary to drive their car through downtown in order to live life to the fullest. Public trasport just isn’t an option for many if you’re taking your family to the North Shore mountains or Whistler for skiing or mountain biking. If it’s gridlock and downtown is going to add 30 mins to my trip, I may just cancel the trip and be pissed about it. That’s not progress.

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6 years 10 months ago