advice, BC, prices

Sales plunge to 10 year low

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The June news release from the REBGV has been released and it looks like the market has turned a corner.

As all of you regular readers here know, sales have plunged to a 10 year low.

The HPI benchmark price has also dropped from the previous month in some areas.  Oddly enough it’s houses in the desirable west side and Richmond which have both dropped about 2% from May.

Best Place on Meth summarizes the total changes for all areas:

Summary of June HPI:

All -0.7%
SFH -0.6%
Apt -0.9%
T/H -0.3%

I was expecting no change for June and declines to start next month so this is a bit of a bonus.

Yes the hot summer market has turned out to be anything but.  As prices drop a few percentage points from their all time highs some are calling this a ‘buyers market‘.

Meanwhile at least one local realtor has sold his own house and says it’s time to cash out.

 

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Anonymous
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@VHB: “Sales coming in higher than expected in July so far. We normally see 15% or so less sales in July than June; so far we are matching June’s pace. But, we’re only three days in . . .”

I know what you mean, but I’d say sales are coming in lower than expected considering the rule change deadline this weekend. Get ready for some serious crickets next week!

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7 years 4 months ago
VanDweller
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Copied from PaulB’s number. Thank you PaulB. http://www.laurenandpaul.ca Date List Price+- Sold Xpired Inv+- Inv S/L(%) 12.06.29 244 166 67 100 77 19630 27 12.07.03 304 188 116 1000 -812 18818 38 12.07.04 324 145 165 83 76 18894 51 12.07.05 281 184 112 91 78 18972 40 Total-Cur 909 517 393 1174 -658 July-Avg 303 172 131 391 -219 43 List Price+- Sold Xpired Inv+- Inv S/L(%)
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7 years 4 months ago
Crikey
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@Dan:
“the little sub-million house red dots on MLS look like soldiers coming in from the East side. Can’t wait until more breach the Cambie line and make it deep into Westside territory.”

You, or somebody, should take daily snapshots of the sub-million house red dots and put together a little animation in a month or two that shows the RED SURGE attacking the westside territory.

That’d graphic would speak wonders, and even the usual naysayers would have problems speaking their usual BS past it.

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7 years 4 months ago
No Noise
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Long time listener, first time caller – just sold the last of my 3rd consecutive properties in Vancouver – 1 BR Condo, 2 BR condo, and 4 Br detached (North Van, Burnaby, East Van respectively). Very happy to be out of the market now. The money I make off interest pays the rent for my family of 4! Let alone the drop that’s just beginning..

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7 years 4 months ago
Keeping An e
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But pry through the pocketbooks and bank accounts of the average Canadian and the country looks remarkably like the America of 2005—or even worse by some measures—complete with record house prices and unprecedented debt.
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/28/youre-about-to-get-burned/

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7 years 4 months ago
jesse
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http://www.donrcampbell.com/commentary-on-the-vancouverbc-real-estate-market-video
haw haw haw :mrgreen:

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7 years 4 months ago
piklishi
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Today we went a bit off topic but I would not blame anyone. This is the reality, this is the place we live. It is not only the high prices but there are other things and problems that you all mentioned, part of our life that we have to deal with. It is good sometimes to give your opinion on different topics. Above all though as we started today : Sales plunge to 10 year low… and counting. TGIF.

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7 years 4 months ago
Anonymous
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I think Garth is finally right…

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7 years 4 months ago
Anonymous
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@Dr. Nick Riviera: “I wouldn’t be surprised if all this stuff about him selling his house is a total lie.”

Who really cares? As long as he is telling it like it is ie the market is correcting that is all I care about. I could care less if he sold his house or not. I doubt he would lie as his realtor buddies could expose him pretty easily. If he is just trying to get listings out of fear that is fine by me too. Hopefully more realtors do the same. We need more fear out there. If he does get some listings that gets us to 20K a little quicker.

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7 years 4 months ago
frank
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@Dr. Nick Riviera:

Lets try and not become cynical twisted worms on this blog.

The guy says he sold, we will take him at his word, he told everyone to get out and sell coz the market is toast. That doesn’t sound like the kind of message that generates lots of eager sellers wanting top dollar.

Lets give him the benefit of the doubt.

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7 years 4 months ago
Meh
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Building the seawall to UBC is the best idea I’ve heard in ages. Maybe we can also tear down those big ugly houses that loom over the Point Grey beaches. Vancouver waterfront for the masses. I like it.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/07/05/bc-vancouver-seawall.html

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7 years 4 months ago
Dr. Nick Riviera
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@vangrl:

Re: Keith Roy

“goof…said he’s probably buying back in to the market in Sept or Oct….wtf,”

I called it yesterday — this guy is just another crapweasel looking for a commission. He doesn’t give a shit about a bubble, he doesn’t give a shit about household debt, fundamentals, cap rates, yields, credit, collapsing values, or any of the other issues facing this bloated market. He found another angle to use to get people to sell their homes and use him as their realtor. That is all it is. If he was so sure prices were crashing he wouldn’t be buying back in Sep/Oct, the very idea is absurd. Prices crashing and recovering in 2 months? Don’t think so, crapweasel.

I wouldn’t be surprised if all this stuff about him selling his house is a total lie.

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7 years 4 months ago
Makaya
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@space889: hmmm, where do I start? Let’s give you some insider information. Evergreen line: will never been profitable, simply not enough ridership. You would need one high rise condo tower erected every month for 20 years along the corridor to get enough ridership… ain’t gonna happen. Decision made for political reason. Personally, I don’t think it’s a bad idea, but taxpayers will have to pay the bills. UBC line: not a bad idea, ridership will be there… half of the year! Ain’t gonna be built. Too many wealthy and influential people on the westside. You know, nimby mentality… Canada line: great ridership success, although they screw up on the design. Procurement procedure was not “fair” (ie some people at SNC have deep connections…), which means stations are not designed to allow for easy expansion (have a look at Yaletown station… Read more »
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7 years 4 months ago
vangrl
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And Omni news is again going on forever about real estate, looks bearish, can’t understand a word they’re saying, not sure why I’m watching:)

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7 years 4 months ago
vangrl
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That kitsilano house has been reduced twice now to get under a million

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7 years 4 months ago
condo watcher
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Best place on meth Says:
July 5th, 2012 at 2:57 pm

If you’re renting from an amateur landlord you’re more likely to have a lease and be at the mercy of the amateur landlord who can sell at any time or evict you for “personal use”.

The lesson here is: don’t rent from amateur landlords.

A lease is binding even if the owner sells –you cannot be evicted unless you screw up–many web sites cover all aspects of tenancy law—read more here

http://www.bclaws.ca/EPLibraries/bclaws_new/document/ID/freeside/00_02078_01

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7 years 4 months ago
crashcow
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“I’m a REALTOR…”

I’m a REALTOR. You don’t understand, I NEED this commission.

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7 years 4 months ago
crashcow
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Freakonomics Asks: Does your real estate agent have your best interest in mind?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17jO_w6f8Ck

Wonder what Keith Roy got for his place…

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7 years 4 months ago
Best place on meth
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Another Kits house under a million hits the market.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11854923&PidKey=-339589804

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7 years 4 months ago
VHB
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Sales coming in higher than expected in July so far. We normally see 15% or so less sales in July than June; so far we are matching June’s pace. But, we’re only three days in . . .

Total days	21
Days elapsed so far	3
Weekends / holidays	2
Days missing	0
Days remaining	18
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	115
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	288
SALES	
Sales so far	393
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	2070
Projected month end total	2463
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	909
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	5189
Projected month end total	6098
Sell-list so far	43.2%
Projected month-end sell-list	40.4%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of July 5, 2012	18972
Current MoI at this sales pace	7.70

See y’all at the BIG 19K Party, Part II here tomorrow!! (Just a warm up for the 20K party later this month, we hope!)

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7 years 4 months ago
Anonymous
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@Anonymous: …..“Getting rid of your car and buming rides off your buddies isn’t a legitimate solution to anything.”

It’s a great solution. I wish more people would do this. Way too many cars around, usually large ones with just 1 person in them.
…..

Except that after a while, buddies don’t appreciate freeloaders. Finding it difficult to get in touch with your buddies recently?

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7 years 4 months ago
market stats
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so 121 is the sales rush before 9 july

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7 years 4 months ago
patriotz
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@Re-diculous:
Sun: “A buyer’s market is loosely defined as a market condition in which supply exceeds demand.”

So loosely that it is never used in microeconomics. Supply always equals demand at the market price.

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7 years 4 months ago
Re-diculous
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Well this is a surprise! A bearish, and rather anti-real estate industry article posted this afternoon in the …..Vancouver Sun! Essentially, don’t get sucked in by the “buyer’s market” nonsense….wait for prices to drop.

I had to read it twice to ensure I wasn’t losing my mind.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/buyer+market+wishful+thinking/6889931/story.html

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7 years 4 months ago
paulb
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New Listings 281
Price Changes 184
Sold Listings 112
TI:18972

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

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7 years 4 months ago