Sales plunge to 10 year low

The June news release from the REBGV has been released and it looks like the market has turned a corner.

As all of you regular readers here know, sales have plunged to a 10 year low.

The HPI benchmark price has also dropped from the previous month in some areas.  Oddly enough it’s houses in the desirable west side and Richmond which have both dropped about 2% from May.

Best Place on Meth summarizes the total changes for all areas:

Summary of June HPI:

All -0.7%
SFH -0.6%
Apt -0.9%
T/H -0.3%

I was expecting no change for June and declines to start next month so this is a bit of a bonus.

Yes the hot summer market has turned out to be anything but.  As prices drop a few percentage points from their all time highs some are calling this a ‘buyers market‘.

Meanwhile at least one local realtor has sold his own house and says it’s time to cash out.

 

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blueskies
Guest
blueskies
3 years 11 months ago

your quintessential “deer in the headlights” moment…… oh deer!

patriotz
Member
3 years 11 months ago

In Vancouver, the seller’s market recedes

Article contains some good stuff mixed with howlers.

While there is anecdotal evidence that foreign investors are losing their appetite for real estate in the Vancouver, experts remain perplexed as to exactly why the city is seeing such a decline in transactions right now.

Maybe nobody left willing and able to pay absurd prices? Like at the top of every bubble?

fixie guy
Guest
fixie guy
3 years 11 months ago

@2 patriotz: They’re probably still willing, just no longer able. Flaherty is turning off the money tap.

patriotz
Member
3 years 11 months ago

But the market had clearly turned before F announced the new rules. Wile E Coyote was already heading down, F just added the anvil.

fixie guy
Guest
fixie guy
3 years 11 months ago

The data shows markets exploding when lending requirements were dramatically loosened in 2006 and sales collapsing leading into their well publicized and predicted retraction in 2012. Sounds like basic economics.

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Guest
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
3 years 11 months ago
Look at this monstrosity they want to build on False Creek where the viaducts currently are. They are going to demolish the viaducts and build a 2000 unit glass tower that is shaped like a square arch. You have to click on the link and look at the picture to see how ugly this building will truly be. This building will ruin Vancouver’s skyline. It looks like a monumnent to Vancouver’s obsession with bad architecture, glass buildings, and cramped high density living. To top it all off, Mayor Robertson is saying that the viaducts are being demolished to create green… Read more »
Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
Guest
Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
3 years 11 months ago

This is serious, very serious, the pumpers weren’t able to engineer a buying panic before the new mortgage rules come into effect, has to mean the supply of greater fools is depleted.

Bill Slut may have to be called upon to pitch a few slow ones to the panel of impartial experts, I suggest Pastrick, Calla, and Tsur.

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Guest
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
3 years 11 months ago

The second link in my post should have been this one, Van Sun article about Prior Street protests due to increased traffic from demolished viaducts:

http://www.vancouversun.com/Prior+Street+residents+plan+protest+against+traffic/6884577/story.html

PS: I know you guys like to stick to real estate economics, but this is just insane. Demolish the viadcuts and put up a glass arch of 2000 units! And this is all coming about as the real estate bubble is popping in the public mind!!!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 11 months ago

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: “this is just insane. Demolish the viadcuts and put up a glass arch of 2000 units!”

The glass arch building is at the Plaza of Nations site. It has nothing to do with the viaducts other than being close by. This proposal could go through without the viaducts coming down and is on private land. I agree the building design is hideous. It is only a proposal from a developer at this point.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 11 months ago
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: “Mayor Robertson is saying that the viaducts are being demolished to create green space and reduce traffic into downtown. Who actually buys that crap excuse for selling out more land to developers???” Mayor Robertson is trying to reduce cars coming into downtown by creating congestion and limiting parking. This is actually worse for the environment because cars are sitting in traffic idling and driving around in circles looking for parking. The current regime likes to brag about less cars coming into downtown but it is as congested as ever. There may be less cars but cars are spending more… Read more »
piklishi
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piklishi
3 years 11 months ago

CityTV morning news,one of those headlines in the bottom had the following message:
“Vancouver home sales hit 10 year low, the board declares buyers market”.

Bo Xilai
Guest
Bo Xilai
3 years 11 months ago

REGVB has a guide to explain the methodology of HPI…What gobbledygook… There so many loopholes about determining an appropriate “representative” home from a “typical” neighbourhood. If I was in charge of the local HPI, I could fiddle with the selection criteria to ensure there was never a negative number.

I can’t get over how all the local media bleat the HPI as if it was delivered from Moses along with the 10 commandments.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 11 months ago

@piklishi:

Same headline on yesterday’s Vancouver Sun website.

McLovin
Guest
McLovin
3 years 11 months ago

Good morning fellow Bears. Its a great time to be a bear in Vancouver. I feel as the Allies must have right after D-day. After years of being beaten down the tide finally turned, the war was won and it was just a matter of time. Victory was inevitable and everyone knew it.

Apr 2012 was our D-Day.

Turkey
Guest
Turkey
3 years 11 months ago
@Anonymous: Mayor Robertson is trying to reduce cars coming into downtown by creating congestion and limiting parking. This is actually worse for the environment because cars are sitting in traffic idling and driving around in circles looking for parking. Put bluntly, this is horsesh!t. Extra lanes conjure up extra traffic. Removing lanes causes traffic to disappear — not just to be rerouted, but actually disappear. (Before you get carried away, I didn’t suggest that we remove all roads and dance naked in the forest.) I’ve recently heard a number of pro-Viaduct arguments purportedly made on my behalf (as a Strathcona… Read more »
van_coffee
Guest
van_coffee
3 years 11 months ago
Wooooooooaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhh Horsy…….. Guys, I am probably more bearish than anyone here. Other than my buddy Dave. He is really bearish. (not that Dave, another Dave). I understand the excitement in watching the inventory build, and the knowledge that rates aint coming down this time, and the further knowledge that people are maxed out. I am also quietly optimistic that the mythical “foreign buyer” has settled down a little, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Prices are still sooooo far out of whack relative to rents, incomes and any reasonable return expectation. IF this is “THE BEGINNING”, let’s quietly enjoy… Read more »
starbucker
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starbucker
3 years 11 months ago
@Turkey: “Put bluntly, this is horsesh!t. Extra lanes conjure up extra traffic. Removing lanes causes traffic to disappear — not just to be rerouted, but actually disappear.” ‘conjure up’? ‘disappear’? obviously crippling our transportation system will reduce the number of trips taken as for many the pain will out way the gain of making a trip. but that isn’t a victory, that’s a failure. you think that each trip represents waste. it doesn’t. it represents a tax paying citizen fulfilling a desire. that desire might be to go to school, work at their dream job, or enjoy the outdoors with… Read more »
patriotz
Member
3 years 11 months ago

@starbucker:
“that desire might be to go to school, work at their dream job, or enjoy the outdoors with their family.”

In downtown Vancouver? I think you’re getting a bit carried away – on all three counts.

b5baxter
Member
3 years 11 months ago

@starbucker:

I hate to continue an off-topic conversation but…
@Turkey is right.

The evidence is that removing traffic lanes reduces congestion:
http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/008957.html

And the evidence shows that adding lanes increases pollution:
http://www.sightline.org/research/climate-analysis-gge-new-lanes-10-07/

No city has reduced pollution by building more lanes to “reduce idling.” The only cities that have successfully reduced pollution in recent decades have done so by reducing light duty vehicle traffic and increasing modal share in other forms of transportation.

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow
3 years 11 months ago

Did the realtor Keith Roy take his post down? I can’t seem to find it on his blog….

This morning on Global, they announced that it is a “buyers market” but “prices are still going up, the benchmark price is up”. What a bunch of BS-the average person will sit back on their couch and think “Oh good, nothing to worry about, my house is still worth $X” Meanwhile, the average price of SFH in Vancouver has dropped 14%!

Nonsense!

BikeMike
Guest
BikeMike
3 years 11 months ago

@patriotz
“In downtown Vancouver? I think you’re getting a bit carried away – on all three counts.”

Not necessarily in downtown – for example, I sometimes like to go to Squamish to climb after work in the summertime, but having to fight through downtown traffic after work generally means adding 30 minutes to the drive.

patriotz
Member
3 years 11 months ago

@BikeMike:
You don’t use the car to climb do you? The best solution to the problem is to get there other than by driving.

If you really do have to drive to Squamish, living in a location that doesn’t require you to go through downtown might make more sense.

It is impossible in a metro with the number of bottenecks that Vancouver has for everyone to expect to drive anywhere they want conveniently.

mac
Member
mac
3 years 11 months ago

It seems the UBC Sauder School of Business has one predominant thought on Vancouver housing: you are displaying entitlement issues if you think housing is here to be used by locals who earn a living here.

OK bears, attack:

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.866289

kabloona
Member
kabloona
3 years 11 months ago

Yeah, where did they dredge up Davidoff? He’s more annoying that Somerville, if that’s possible…..

🙁

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 11 months ago
@patriotz: “In downtown Vancouver? I think you’re getting a bit carried away – on all three counts.” What route do you suggest someone takes if they want to drive from the West Side to Whistler? For many, it’s absolutely necessary to drive their car through downtown in order to live life to the fullest. Public trasport just isn’t an option for many if you’re taking your family to the North Shore mountains or Whistler for skiing or mountain biking. If it’s gridlock and downtown is going to add 30 mins to my trip, I may just cancel the trip and… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 11 months ago

@patriotz:
“It is impossible in a metro with the number of bottenecks that Vancouver has for everyone to expect to drive anywhere they want conveniently”

You may be right, but why constantly take steps to intentionally increase the inconvenience.

starbucker
Guest
starbucker
3 years 11 months ago

@Anonymous: “What route do you suggest someone takes if they want to drive from the West Side to Whistler”

I think he wants you to use your jet pack 🙂

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 11 months ago

@Anonymous:

“If it’s gridlock and downtown is going to add 30 mins to my trip”

Downtown is rarely gridlocked. Georgia (between Richards and Stanley Park), Seymour (between Davie and Georgia), and Denman (between Georgia and Davie) can be pretty brutal, but in general it’s possible to drive right across downtown at any time of day.

Crossing a bridge/tunnel is always going to be problematic, in any city.

Troll
Guest
Troll
3 years 11 months ago

@Anonymous:

What route do you suggest someone takes if they want to drive from the West Side to Whistler?

Oh, here we go again, those poor Westsiders. Now they have to endure not having a private, direct access road to Whistler, oh the horrors.

God, this town is filled with whiners.

fixie guy
Guest
fixie guy
3 years 11 months ago

23 mac Says: “OK bears, attack:”

Attack? Industry experts telling average local wage earners they’re not good enough to live in Vancouver is gold for bears. BCREA’s brains should be blowing out whenever their Sauder friends make that kind of public judgment. Comedy gold is the extreme disconnect between wages and prices didn’t elicit a comment from a news organization.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 11 months ago

@patriotz:

“The best solution to the problem is to get there other than by driving.”

How else would you suggest getting to Squamish? Buses/coaches still have to queue for the Lions Gate. Neither Taylor Way nor Stanley Park Causeway have bus lanes.

Or are you talking about the ‘best solution’ in a collective sense, leading by example, and all that?

b5baxter
Member
3 years 11 months ago
@starbucker: “…are adding extreme inefficiently to people’s lives…” But cars are probably the most inefficient way to move people around. In therms of: – energy (no contest here) – tasks (you can get work done while on transit and exercise while cycling) – time (for short trips in Vancouver a bike is faster and for longer trips rail could be faster – if we had it). I haven’t owned a car in over 15 years and still manage to make it to the North Shore, Squamish and Whistler on a regular basis. I agree that we don’t have enough good… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 11 months ago

@Troll: “God, this town is filled with whiners.”

whiners hang around this blog only; they have nowhere else to go . for the rest of the population, they are pretty cool.

Turkey
Guest
Turkey
3 years 11 months ago
@Anonymous: If it’s gridlock and downtown is going to add 30 mins to my trip, I may just cancel the trip and be pissed about it. That’s not progress. (15 points): Define “progress”. Relate your answer to the traffic planner’s traditional role in promoting the efficient movement of goods and labour. Should passenger vehicles heading for Whistler be given special consideration? Again, it seems like mountain climbing, biking, and skiing are stalking horses for the real topic, which is commuting. If we were really discussing trips out of the city, then why does it seem totally off-topic to mention border… Read more »
shriller
Guest
shriller
3 years 11 months ago
@ mac. (Nice comments BTW) Sauder isn’t exactly known for their big picture thinking. The idea of a general equilibrium is a bit beyond them. For instance, if locals can’t afford to live in a city then there are no workers to provide services in that city — this can’t really be an equilibrium. Prices would adjust to bring about an equilibrium with workers living in the city. This argument doesn’t compute with Sauder folks who work in partial equilibria. Sure they know GE effects exist but they never think that they are applicable. The thing I really fault them… Read more »
Not much of a name...
Member
Not much of a name...
3 years 11 months ago

Something that made me go hmmm. Just reading the following article in the G&M about June RE sales in Toronto.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/toronto-home-sales-fall-54-in-june/article4391684/

At first, I found that it was just the usual piece about RE and that you could insert any city into the article and just change a few numbers. But….then it hit me. All the prices quoted were averages not benchmark prices. I thought the rationale behind changing the HPI was that it was to be used Canada wide. I guess the Toronto RE board didn’t get the memo.

starbucker
Guest
starbucker
3 years 11 months ago
@b5baxter: “- tasks (you can get work done while on transit and exercise while cycling)” you obviously don’t take skytrain or canada line. it is way too crowded to do work. “- time (for short trips in Vancouver a bike is faster and for longer trips rail could be faster – if we had it).” the vast majority of people aren’t within biking distance to work. the place they travel to or from 40 times a month. “I haven’t owned a car in over 15 years and still manage to make it to the North Shore, Squamish and Whistler on… Read more »
boogeybear
Guest
boogeybear
3 years 11 months ago
When we get our first landed immigrant mayor from China elected, you will then see progress on building highways within Vancouver City. For 30 years and more, Vancouver has tried to discourage the use of personal cars. All that this policy has done is to increase grid lock and pollution. My bet is that in a hundred years from now, the personal vehicle will still be the number one choice of commuting. I doubt if the bus will still be here. The bus system is expensive and inefficient way of moving one or two people through a city.
starbucker
Guest
starbucker
3 years 11 months ago

@b5baxter:
“The evidence is that removing traffic lanes reduces congestion:
http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/008957.html

that article talks about very specific cases where a careful and thoughtful mathematical analysis was performed and it was determined that shutting down a road in Seoul Korea would speed up traffic and it did.

taking those facts and making general statements that not investing in roads is a good idea ALL THE TIME is ridiculous and dogmatic.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 11 months ago

@Vote Down The Facts:
“Downtown is rarely gridlocked”
I’m not talking about now, I’m talking about the future if Mayor Moonbeam continues to shutdown lanes in and out of downtown.

lavarocks
Guest
lavarocks
3 years 11 months ago
@starbucker: the vast majority of people aren’t within biking distance to work. the place they travel to or from 40 times a month. And whose fault is that? One of the reasons I rent is mobility. I can live in the area I want in a residence I enjoy instead of being trapped in an area I don’t like in a sub-optimal home. I can also move at the drop of a hat. Last time my office moved I did just that because as you say, so much time can be wasted commuting. I choose to walk to work even… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 11 months ago
@patriotz: Downtown Vancouver has more parks, schools and enploys more people than anywhere in Metro Vancouver. FFS Stanley Park is downtown. I think it is a great idea to reduce traffic into downtown. There are better ways to do it than create gridlock. Personally I am not opposed the the viaducts coming out because it will make the area nicer and may not make much difference for traffic other than Prior Steet maybe. It is most of the other bone head changes they made that I am opposed to. If they want to reduce traffic into downtown the solution is… Read more »
starbucker
Guest
starbucker
3 years 11 months ago
I’ll end my off topoc posts on commuting and transportation by posting this: OCTOBER 18, 2011 Toronto Board of Trade research on the average total commute time in major metros: Dallas 53 minutes Milan 53.4 Seattle 55.5 Boston 55.8 Los Angeles 56.1 San Francisco 57.4 Chicago 61.4 Berlin 63.2 Halifax 65 Sydney 66 Madrid 66.1 Calgary 67 Vancouver 67 New York 68.1 Stockholm 70 London 74 Montreal 76 Toronto 80 we are slightly better than NY (19 million) and much worse than LA (4 million) if you think neglecting transportation is about the environment, you are wrong. “it’s always about… Read more »
b5baxter
Member
3 years 11 months ago
@starbucker: “…you obviously don’t take skytrain or canada line. it is way too crowded to do work…” Let me repeat myself – we need to improve transit and other options for commuting in Vancouver. They are clearly not adequate. But that is where the focus should be – not on more road lanes. “..the vast majority of people aren’t within biking distance to work. the place they travel to or from 40 times a month…” The average commute distance in Metro Vancouver is 7.4 km and has been decreasing.(see: http://www.metrovancouver.org/about/publications/Publications/2006_commute_report_30oct2008.pdf) That is about a 30 minute bike ride. It seems… Read more »
starbucker
Guest
starbucker
3 years 11 months ago

@lavarocks:

@starbucker: the vast majority of people aren’t within biking distance to work. the place they travel to or from 40 times a month.

“And whose fault is that?”

physics? two bodies can’t occupy the same space.

i’d love it if more business and offices moved out of vancouver and downtown core. but it isn’t happening at enough scale to make any difference.

the RCMP is already moving to surrey. move the court house there too. the federal department of justice offices would follow.

starbucker
Guest
starbucker
3 years 11 months ago

@b5baxter: “Greyhound (with service several times a day), SnowBus, Car pooling (Club Tread, Wanderung, network of friends), Car sharing (Modo). But I would really like to see passenger rail service restored.”

lmao. come on. you are using the roads, but someone else is driving. bahahaha. ok, i’ve had enough, i’m closing my browser rofl.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 11 months ago

@b5baxter: “we should focus on building those alternatives instead of adding road lanes”

Who said anything about adding lanes…they’re trying to take lanes away.

TPFKAA
Guest
TPFKAA
3 years 11 months ago
@starbucker: “the vast majority of people aren’t within biking distance to work. the place they travel to or from 40 times a month.” I disagree… I know several people who commute from central Burnaby to downtown by bike. It’s a comfortable hour for even fairly unfit people, and includes enough hills. I would guess that is the median size of commute, roughly 18 kms. The real problems are the incessant rain, the lack of bicycle-only routes, and the inconsiderate, unempathetic, oblivious, aggressive and entitled commuters who occupy every 7th car one encounters. “cars are the backbone of our transportation system.… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 11 months ago

@b5baxter: ….I haven’t owned a car in over 15 years and still manage to make it to the North Shore, Squamish and Whistler on a regular basis. …

Getting rid of your car and buming rides off your buddies isn’t a legitimate solution to anything.

TPFKAA
Guest
TPFKAA
3 years 11 months ago

@TPFKAA:

there you go. B5baxter actually has data.

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