advice, BC, prices

Sales plunge to 10 year low

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153 Comments

The June news release from the REBGV has been released and it looks like the market has turned a corner.

As all of you regular readers here know, sales have plunged to a 10 year low.

The HPI benchmark price has also dropped from the previous month in some areas.  Oddly enough it’s houses in the desirable west side and Richmond which have both dropped about 2% from May.

Best Place on Meth summarizes the total changes for all areas:

Summary of June HPI:

All -0.7%
SFH -0.6%
Apt -0.9%
T/H -0.3%

I was expecting no change for June and declines to start next month so this is a bit of a bonus.

Yes the hot summer market has turned out to be anything but.  As prices drop a few percentage points from their all time highs some are calling this a ‘buyers market‘.

Meanwhile at least one local realtor has sold his own house and says it’s time to cash out.

 

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Anonymous

@VHB: “Sales coming in higher than expected in July so far. We normally see 15% or so less sales in July than June; so far we are matching June’s pace. But, we’re only three days in . . .”

I know what you mean, but I’d say sales are coming in lower than expected considering the rule change deadline this weekend. Get ready for some serious crickets next week!

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VanDweller

Copied from PaulB’s number. Thank you PaulB.
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

Date      List  Price+-  Sold  Xpired  Inv+-  Inv   S/L(%)
12.06.29   244   166     67      100    77    19630  27

12.07.03   304   188     116     1000   -812  18818  38
12.07.04   324   145     165     83     76    18894  51
12.07.05   281   184     112     91     78    18972  40

Total-Cur  909   517     393     1174   -658         
July-Avg   303   172     131     391    -219         43
          List  Price+-  Sold  Xpired  Inv+-  Inv   S/L(%)
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Crikey

@Dan:
“the little sub-million house red dots on MLS look like soldiers coming in from the East side. Can’t wait until more breach the Cambie line and make it deep into Westside territory.”

You, or somebody, should take daily snapshots of the sub-million house red dots and put together a little animation in a month or two that shows the RED SURGE attacking the westside territory.

That’d graphic would speak wonders, and even the usual naysayers would have problems speaking their usual BS past it.

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No Noise

Long time listener, first time caller – just sold the last of my 3rd consecutive properties in Vancouver – 1 BR Condo, 2 BR condo, and 4 Br detached (North Van, Burnaby, East Van respectively). Very happy to be out of the market now. The money I make off interest pays the rent for my family of 4! Let alone the drop that’s just beginning..

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Keeping An e

But pry through the pocketbooks and bank accounts of the average Canadian and the country looks remarkably like the America of 2005—or even worse by some measures—complete with record house prices and unprecedented debt.
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/28/youre-about-to-get-burned/

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piklishi

Today we went a bit off topic but I would not blame anyone. This is the reality, this is the place we live. It is not only the high prices but there are other things and problems that you all mentioned, part of our life that we have to deal with. It is good sometimes to give your opinion on different topics. Above all though as we started today : Sales plunge to 10 year low… and counting. TGIF.

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Anonymous

I think Garth is finally right…

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Anonymous

@Dr. Nick Riviera: “I wouldn’t be surprised if all this stuff about him selling his house is a total lie.”

Who really cares? As long as he is telling it like it is ie the market is correcting that is all I care about. I could care less if he sold his house or not. I doubt he would lie as his realtor buddies could expose him pretty easily. If he is just trying to get listings out of fear that is fine by me too. Hopefully more realtors do the same. We need more fear out there. If he does get some listings that gets us to 20K a little quicker.

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frank

@Dr. Nick Riviera:

Lets try and not become cynical twisted worms on this blog.

The guy says he sold, we will take him at his word, he told everyone to get out and sell coz the market is toast. That doesn’t sound like the kind of message that generates lots of eager sellers wanting top dollar.

Lets give him the benefit of the doubt.

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Meh

Building the seawall to UBC is the best idea I’ve heard in ages. Maybe we can also tear down those big ugly houses that loom over the Point Grey beaches. Vancouver waterfront for the masses. I like it.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/07/05/bc-vancouver-seawall.html

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Dr. Nick Riviera

@vangrl:

Re: Keith Roy

“goof…said he’s probably buying back in to the market in Sept or Oct….wtf,”

I called it yesterday — this guy is just another crapweasel looking for a commission. He doesn’t give a shit about a bubble, he doesn’t give a shit about household debt, fundamentals, cap rates, yields, credit, collapsing values, or any of the other issues facing this bloated market. He found another angle to use to get people to sell their homes and use him as their realtor. That is all it is. If he was so sure prices were crashing he wouldn’t be buying back in Sep/Oct, the very idea is absurd. Prices crashing and recovering in 2 months? Don’t think so, crapweasel.

I wouldn’t be surprised if all this stuff about him selling his house is a total lie.

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Makaya

@space889: hmmm, where do I start? Let’s give you some insider information. Evergreen line: will never been profitable, simply not enough ridership. You would need one high rise condo tower erected every month for 20 years along the corridor to get enough ridership… ain’t gonna happen. Decision made for political reason. Personally, I don’t think it’s a bad idea, but taxpayers will have to pay the bills. UBC line: not a bad idea, ridership will be there… half of the year! Ain’t gonna be built. Too many wealthy and influential people on the westside. You know, nimby mentality… Canada line: great ridership success, although they screw up on the design. Procurement procedure was not “fair” (ie some people at SNC have deep connections…), which means stations are not designed to allow for easy expansion (have a look at Yaletown station… Read more »

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vangrl

And Omni news is again going on forever about real estate, looks bearish, can’t understand a word they’re saying, not sure why I’m watching:)

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vangrl

That kitsilano house has been reduced twice now to get under a million

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condo watcher

Best place on meth Says:
July 5th, 2012 at 2:57 pm

If you’re renting from an amateur landlord you’re more likely to have a lease and be at the mercy of the amateur landlord who can sell at any time or evict you for “personal use”.

The lesson here is: don’t rent from amateur landlords.

A lease is binding even if the owner sells –you cannot be evicted unless you screw up–many web sites cover all aspects of tenancy law—read more here

http://www.bclaws.ca/EPLibraries/bclaws_new/document/ID/freeside/00_02078_01

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crashcow

“I’m a REALTOR…”

I’m a REALTOR. You don’t understand, I NEED this commission.

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crashcow

Freakonomics Asks: Does your real estate agent have your best interest in mind?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17jO_w6f8Ck

Wonder what Keith Roy got for his place…

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Best place on meth

Another Kits house under a million hits the market.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11854923&PidKey=-339589804

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VHB

Sales coming in higher than expected in July so far. We normally see 15% or so less sales in July than June; so far we are matching June’s pace. But, we’re only three days in . . . Total days 21 Days elapsed so far 3 Weekends / holidays 2 Days missing 0 Days remaining 18 7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales 115 7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings 288 SALES Sales so far 393 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 2070 Projected month end total 2463 NEW LISTINGS Listings so far 909 Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA) 5189 Projected month end total 6098 Sell-list so far 43.2% Projected month-end sell-list 40.4% MONTHS OF INVENTORY Inventory as of July 5, 2012 18972 Current MoI at this sales pace 7.70 See y’all at the BIG 19K… Read more »

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Anonymous

@Anonymous: …..“Getting rid of your car and buming rides off your buddies isn’t a legitimate solution to anything.”

It’s a great solution. I wish more people would do this. Way too many cars around, usually large ones with just 1 person in them.
…..

Except that after a while, buddies don’t appreciate freeloaders. Finding it difficult to get in touch with your buddies recently?

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market stats

so 121 is the sales rush before 9 july

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patriotz

@Re-diculous:
Sun: “A buyer’s market is loosely defined as a market condition in which supply exceeds demand.”

So loosely that it is never used in microeconomics. Supply always equals demand at the market price.

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Re-diculous

Well this is a surprise! A bearish, and rather anti-real estate industry article posted this afternoon in the …..Vancouver Sun! Essentially, don’t get sucked in by the “buyer’s market” nonsense….wait for prices to drop.

I had to read it twice to ensure I wasn’t losing my mind.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/buyer+market+wishful+thinking/6889931/story.html

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paulb

New Listings 281
Price Changes 184
Sold Listings 112
TI:18972

http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

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