Thanks for the housing market data!

Hey all, This is my first submission, mostly I lurk in the forum but read this site daily.

I just want to send out a big thank you to everyone who shares otherwise unavailable Vancouver housing market data here.

Watching the stats roll in day after day has been fascinating.

It’s amazing to watch the market change day by day, and the aggregate data provides an even clearer picture.

First of all of course there’s Paulb who’s been providing daily numbers for a long while.  It’s thanks to Paul that we see the daily number of new listings, sold properties and have a total inventory count.  Pauls website is here.

Then there’s VHB, who consistently posts analysis tracking the numbers through the month.  Here’s his most recent post.

We have a new commenter going by the name of HFHC who has been providing other great stats including listing data for the entire lower mainland and a break down of sales by category.

Then there’s Inventory, who’s provided excellent number breakdowns for specific markets as seen in yesterdays post about the low June sales numbers.

And of course everyone else who provides such amazing data, analysis and comments.  I started listing your handles, but the list went on and on and I knew I’d leave out some the best so I’m opting to just send out a big general thanks to ALL of you, you’re amazing.

Keep posting!

-kray

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jesse
Member

Having these numbers are great for a few reasons, first being that they have been good at predicting month-end sales after about 5 business days of sales. (Inventory is a bit more uncertain but still we have a fair guess.) That is a powerful indicator allowing us to determine market strength in the coming weeks. In effect the blogs know the news weeks in advance of any of the MSM press releases. If nothing else it’s a cool party trick!

More hilarity on “da stream”:
Apparently even if you buy Vancouver property today with 4% EBITDA and 5:1 leverage you can still get a return on equity of 10%! Beat that, hedgies.

Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
Guest
Keeping An Eye On The Pimps

And then there are previews of thing to come:

“Ireland’s property crash has hit young first-time buyers the hardest – with many now struggling to hang onto their homes.

The buyers who paid sky-high prices at the height of the Celtic Tiger property boom are now paying the price”

Read more: http://www.irishcentral.com/news/First-time-buyers-pay-the-price-of-housing-bubble-burst-says-new-report-161192815.html#ixzz1zepWpPuE

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow

@Keeping An Eye On The Pimps:

I can see this happening here: “the biggest drop since the peak is in the value of one-bed and two-bed apartments” Too many condos with only one or two bedrooms. It’s not easy to stuff 4 people into a 2 bedroom apartment, I’m living this reality every day :s

Those are huge price drops! Yikes, average price of a one bed condo went from $300,000 to $110,000 (not exactly sure why they are quoting these prices in dollars, not euros).

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Re: Ireland Article

“There isn’t really an investor market at the moment, and the people coming five or 10 years after those who bought for the first time in the boom aren’t really interested in a one or two-bed home.”
______________________________________________________________________

I thought investors swooped in and snapped up cheap properties if prices come down even 10%? I guess that only happens in Vancouver.

registered
Member
registered

@3 pricedoutfornow: Makes sense, during the bubble small units would have seen increasing demand as larger ones moved beyond the reach of typical buyers. Developers would have targeted new product towards the highest demand, increasing supply.
It would be interesting to see whether civic markets like Miami and Las Vegas experienced the same thing as Ireland did nationally.

AG Sage
Member

@pricedoutfornow: Prices are in dollars because it’s an American based magazine.

MrV
Guest
MrV

I would like to add ZRH2YVR to the original commenter’s list, for his detailed & insightful posts

Harry Wang
Guest
Harry Wang

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/07/04/vancouver-home-sales-plunge-to-10-year-low-in-june/

Vancouver home sales plunge to 10-year low in June
June report is out

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
@fixie guy: “It would be interesting to see whether civic markets like Miami and Las Vegas experienced the same thing as Ireland did nationally.” It is not just about how many bedrooms but more importantly it is the overall size of the unit. I am not sure the average size of the units in Ireland but we know a 1 bedroom in Toronto or Vancouver means 600 square feet and 2 bedrooms are around 800 square feet. In places like Miami you can look at the recent condo stock built and 1 bedrooms are generally 800 to 1200 square feet with 2 bedrooms 1200 to 1800. It gets pretty tough to find a condo built in the last 10 years over 1200 square feet in Vancouver. A recent article said the AVERAGE size of a new condo in Toronto is… Read more »
patriotz
Member

@AG Sage:
Quoting the prices in dollars overstates the decline because the Euro has gone down against the USD over the last 5 years. Remember the mortgages, rents and wages are in Euros too.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@patriotz: “Quoting the prices in dollars overstates the decline because the Euro has gone down against the USD over the last 5 years.”

They obviously would have converted all the figures at the same exchange rate. When they looked at old price history it is in Euros not USD. The percent decline is the same. The USD is only relevant to those buying with USD.

patriotz
Member

@Anonymous:
Let me make it more clear.

Suppose over the last 5 years the Euro had gone down 50% against the USD, but RE prices in Ireland had not changed at all.

Thus quoting in USD you would see a 50% decline in Irish RE prices. But for the people in Ireland nothing would have changed.

What we have in real life is a decline in the Euro price of RE, which matters to the Irish, and a decline in the Euro against the USD adding to the decline in USD, which doesn’t.

patriotz
Member

@Anonymous:
“They obviously would have converted all the figures at the same exchange rate.”

Forgot to comment on this. Why “obviously”, and at what rate?

Troll
Guest
Troll

@Harry Wang:

“Today, our sales-to-active-listings ratio sits at 13%, which puts us in the lower end of a balanced market.

Wow, the lower end of the balanced market keeps getting lower.

Rightsizer
Guest
Rightsizer

@MrV: I agree, ZRH2YVR is awesome!

Also: Jesse, best place on meth, b5baxter, patriotz, and too many more to name.

I come here for the news, I stay for the discussion.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@Troll:

“Wow, the lower end of the balanced market keeps getting lower.”

Yes, I noticed that too.

Based on their own numbers MOI now sits at about 7.9 yet they still choose to call this a balanced market.

I’m not sure whether to call this spin or outright lying by the board.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
@Harry Wang: On the article: Prices appear to be stabilizing base on what the board calls its composite benchmark price index which is up 1.7% over the last year and 0.7% down from May. Translation: despite all our effort, hard work and multiple “adjustments”, we couldn’t make the benchmark price go up again this month, but hey, it’s still going up YOY. not too bad he? Supply does appear to be trending down with new listing off 18.9% in June from May. Compared to a year ago new listings are down 3%. Translation:The numbers are so terrible this month that this is the only piece of stats that we could spin with a positive tone. Of course, we won’t tell you that new listings in May had been at record high, pulling some listings forward, which maybe could explain why… Read more »
Troll
Guest
Troll

@Best place on meth: The thing is, at least be consistent with your neighbor, the FVREB. On their Sales to Active Listings chart they show a balanced market between 18% and 22%. That’s a far cry from claiming 13% is balanced.

Also noticed that the Van Sun copy of the story shows the YOY price increase, but leaves out the MOM price decrease as included in the FP copy. Honest mistake.

registered
Member
registered

9 Anonymous Says: “It is not just about how many bedrooms but more importantly it is the overall size of the unit..”

My post spoke to size and didn’t mention number of bedrooms.

Makaya
Member
Makaya

According to the REBGV Chief Comedian Eugen Klein, a balanced market is when sale to list ratio is between 10% and 20%. See his explanation here: http://youtu.be/6OYphI3WFU8 (starts at 58 seconds).

But funny enough, some of their members didn’t get the memo about the new definition of a “balanced market”. According to this realtor blog:

“Official Market type: Balanced market with average 15% sales ratio (14% is a Buyer’s Market)”

Funny, eh?

shriller
Guest
shriller
I find the HPI spin amusing. It’s such garbage. I have problems with the Teranet indices because I think they mix house-specific and market-specific pricing factors somewhat dubiously but at least Teranet tries to create a sensible index. The clowns who publish the HPI are, at best, trying to create a matching-estimator for house prices statistically. And with the number of sales last month the standard errors must be getting rather large so any `increase’ is statistically irrelevant. But I’m sure the `matching’ part is not properly done either. I can’t wait for Zillow to invade the Cdn market. As for inventory, while I like the concept, what really matters is the shadow inventory. I imagine that, listed or not, the shadow inventory must be getting larger. Especially if the HELOC to mortgage refi party is coming to an end.… Read more »
Troll
Guest
Troll

Good mortgage data from BMO in this CBC story, shows 20% of all outstanding BC mortgages have MORE than 25 years left to pay. Remarkable. That’s compared to a national national average of 12% and only 7% in Ontario.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/07/04/bmo-survey-mortgage-duration.html

registered
Member
registered

20 Makaya Says: “According to the REBGV Chief Comedian Eugen Klein, a balanced market is when sale to list ratio is between 10% and 20%.”

How does product entering a market five to ten times faster than it’s absorbed calculate out as balanced? ‘Analysts say’ doesn’t quite have enough detail. The industry apparently maintained so tenuous a link between pronouncements and logic that they’re now comfortable just letting go. Up and up 4ever!

shriller
Guest
shriller

@ Troll.
Interesting survey results to be sure. What I would really like to know is the comparable number for Greater Vancouver. In lots of parts of the province, I don’t think people stretched as far to buy homes.

Makaya
Member
Makaya

For those of you who understand french, here is a famous quote from former president Chirac: “les merdes, ca volent en escadrille”

News keep getting bad for Vancouver…

Vancouver no longer ranked in the top 10 most livable cities

Let’s call it “a blow to the BPOE myth”…

wpDiscuz