Thanks for the housing market data!

Hey all, This is my first submission, mostly I lurk in the forum but read this site daily.

I just want to send out a big thank you to everyone who shares otherwise unavailable Vancouver housing market data here.

Watching the stats roll in day after day has been fascinating.

It’s amazing to watch the market change day by day, and the aggregate data provides an even clearer picture.

First of all of course there’s Paulb who’s been providing daily numbers for a long while.  It’s thanks to Paul that we see the daily number of new listings, sold properties and have a total inventory count.  Pauls website is here.

Then there’s VHB, who consistently posts analysis tracking the numbers through the month.  Here’s his most recent post.

We have a new commenter going by the name of HFHC who has been providing other great stats including listing data for the entire lower mainland and a break down of sales by category.

Then there’s Inventory, who’s provided excellent number breakdowns for specific markets as seen in yesterdays post about the low June sales numbers.

And of course everyone else who provides such amazing data, analysis and comments.  I started listing your handles, but the list went on and on and I knew I’d leave out some the best so I’m opting to just send out a big general thanks to ALL of you, you’re amazing.

Keep posting!

-kray

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Devore
Devore
8 years ago

@Vote Down The Facts:

Even if the subject-free offer was at a lower price?

Yes. Even without conditions, they’re often sent back to “improve”. But if you’re in a bidding war scenario, you do your pre-inspection, arrange your financing, and bring a fat deposit check with your condition-free offer on offer day. A conditional offer can trivially fall through as the overstimulated top bidders get cold feet after a night’s sleep, an unconditional one is a done deal right then and there.

oneangryslav2
oneangryslav2
8 years ago

@Vote Down The Facts:

They’re unpublished as far as I’m aware, which is suspicious in itself. If they wanted to be taken seriously they’d put them out there for others to review. They’d probably claim that there’s some sort of trade secret in their recipe, which puts them on the same page as KFC and hydraulic fracturing in my book.

+1,000,000!!

Wishing to see the data (or formulas) is wishful thinking as it would undermine the whole RE ponzi scheme. But at a minimum, they (REBGV) should be willing to supply summary tables of parameter estimates and standard errors.

rp1
rp1
8 years ago
Vote Down The Facts
Vote Down The Facts
8 years ago

@Anonymous: “If it was a true bidding war an offer with subjects would never be accepted if there was an offer with no subjects.”

Even if the subject-free offer was at a lower price?

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@Lionel Hutz: “I would be more willing to give this guy some credit for being honest if it weren’t for the fact that his assessment is entirely self-serving.”

It is true his blog post is a marketing ploy, but the fact is he did sell his own house and does support his point of view with facts. He even calls out his association. The more realtors who market like this the better. He is also sacrificing potential buyers agent commissions by doing this.

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@Vote Down The Facts: “If they’d written in any subjects at all they could have found a way out of the deal, and told both realtors where to shove it. Could these fools have submitted a subject-free offer?”

Any bidding war is typically all no subject offers. If it was a true bidding war an offer with subjects would never be accepted if there was an offer with no subjects.

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@Lionel Hutz: “Oh man that gave me a good laugh. A realtor getting rooked by another realtor.”

The realtor didn’t get rooked. Both realtors made more money by taking a commission on the 90K over asking. Remember the buyers agent is actually wooking for and paid by the seller. The buyer obviously did not realize this when he/she got sucked din to the ‘bidding war’.

Vote Down The Facts
Vote Down The Facts
8 years ago

@Makaya:

That’s awesome, thanks for the link.

Makaya
Makaya
8 years ago

@Vote Down The Facts: They’re unpublished as far as I’m aware, which is suspicious in itself.

Actually, the HPI formula is published. Here you can find it here:
http://www.yattermatters.com/wp/wp-content/images/2012/05/HPI-User-Guide-mls%C2%AE_hpi_user_guide.pdf

Absinthe
Absinthe
8 years ago

@Turkey: I’d actually not mind living in that area, sketchy tho’ it is, if those were, what, 60% off?

Tick Tock
Tick Tock
8 years ago

Reminder property taxes are due today…. i saw a line up at Money Mart in Vancouver this morning coincidence?

Cracks are showing, credit cards are maxed, Home Depot empty, get popping those kernels!

Romeo Jordan
Romeo Jordan
8 years ago

Thanks for the great stats breakdown!

Watch for simple average price decline in the 20%+ range by year end. As the year over year comparison starts with a higher 2011 price (given last year’s price trend).

The HPI or whatever that bullshit is should be down in the high single digits by then.

Hold onto yer ginches, this ride will pick up steam as we move into the fall.

Lionel Hutz
Lionel Hutz
8 years ago

Re: Keith Roy

I would be more willing to give this guy some credit for being honest if it weren’t for the fact that his assessment is entirely self-serving. Of course he wants to induce people to sell, how do you think he makes his money? What better way than to create panic: SELL NOW OR BE PRICED IN FOREVER. His schtick is no different than other used house salesmen when the market is going up. No matter what the market conditions are, it will always be a good time to buy and it will always be a good time to sell. All these realturds are out for themselves, don’t ever forget that.

HFHC
HFHC
8 years ago

New Listings 408
Back On Market Listings 52
Price Changes 181
Sold Listings 185

@Turkey –

V939354
780k 23-mar-12
719k 27-jun-12

V939353
888k 23-mar-12
818k 27-jun-12

V939338
898k – 23-mar-12
828k 27-jun-12

Also Sold today Breakdown

Townhouse – 41
apartment – 82
House – 58
duplex and acerage – 4

ReadyToPop
ReadyToPop
8 years ago

It wouldn’t surprise me if many over bidders are also prone to drive around to several outlets to get a few cents off their favourite deoderant.

Vote Down The Facts
Vote Down The Facts
8 years ago

@Crikey: “Why are formulas changing so often? What are those formulas, exactly?”

They’re unpublished as far as I’m aware, which is suspicious in itself. If they wanted to be taken seriously they’d put them out there for others to review. They’d probably claim that there’s some sort of trade secret in their recipe, which puts them on the same page as KFC and hydraulic fracturing in my book.

Joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
8 years ago

“The lack of affordable rental housing doesn’t just negatively affect the bottom line and quality of life for people like Patton, it’s negatively impacting Canada’s economy, according to a report released Wednesday by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities.

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+style+high+rents+drag+national+economy+report/6884931/story.html#ixzz1ziiyf64A

Vote Down The Facts
Vote Down The Facts
8 years ago

@Makaya:

There must be something missing from that story (the $90k over ask with no competing offers). If they’d written in any subjects at all they could have found a way out of the deal, and told both realtors where to shove it. Could these fools have submitted a subject-free offer? Why did they “negotiate” a $45k reduction instead of walking away in disgust?

Lionel Hutz
Lionel Hutz
8 years ago

@Makaya:

“Toronto realtor calls for stiffer bidding war rules after clients offer $90,000 over with no rival bids”

Oh man that gave me a good laugh. A realtor getting rooked by another realtor. You’d think these crooks would be up to speed on all the usual realtor sleazeball tactics from their colleagues.. I don’t feel sorry for these buyers at all. They seemed all too willing to overpay and if they are stupid/gullible enough to fall for this basic tactic from a listing agent then they are getting what they deserve. I can’t believe the realtor is claiming she was duped though. Was she born yesterday?

pricedoutfornow
pricedoutfornow
8 years ago

@pennysaver:

Re: Keith Roy-This is unbelievable! A realtor stating the obvious (when there’s more supply, prices go down). And selling his own home!

That’s it. It’s over. I can feel it, there will be blood on Vancouver’s streets very soon.

patient renter
patient renter
8 years ago

ok, so it’s a story on the front of the CBC website. The video is great right up until the last 10 seconds when they give the last word to an “economist at the BC real estate association” who says that there will be no bargains.

http://www.cbc.ca/bc/

Crikey
Crikey
8 years ago

I occasionally see discussion/consternation here about the different statistics reported by different RE bookkeeping organizations. Why are formulas changing so often? What are those formulas, exactly? And, can those statistics possibly ever be wrong? The answer to that last question, at least, is a resounding “YES!!!”. I hate to repeat something I’ve said in other threads, but we only need to look at recent history down south get see evidence of statistics shenanigans by supposedly “reputable” organizations: As recently as 7 months ago, the NAR (National Association of Realtors) in the U.S. released a BIG bombshell that somehow went relatively unnoticed by the MSM — since 2007 through 2011 they had been double-counting many sales, producing numbers that were sometimes as much as 20% off from reality! (The NAR only admitted this after another stats organization made it painfully obvious… Read more »

Simple
Simple
8 years ago

Looks like “Makaya” and “Vote Down The Facts” have finally settled their argument.

http://www.vancouversun.com/Roommate+facing+charges+after+Kitsilano+attack/6883191/story.html

Joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
8 years ago

What a monstrosity!!!

“A 30-storey glass arch structure of up to 2,000 residential units will act as a window between BC Place and False Creek, anchoring a massive mixed-use complex that will transform a dead zone into the heart of a vibrant entertainment district, according to a proposal to the city.”

Best comment is by jhane ball:

“Most of us realise that the loose the viaducts plan is really all about freeing up more land for the developers and not the creation of so called human scale parks and neighbourhoods. But seriously if this design is the best Vancouver architects can do and a sample of the shape of things to come, not only visually, but density wise, then g** help us.”