Thanks for the housing market data!

Hey all, This is my first submission, mostly I lurk in the forum but read this site daily.

I just want to send out a big thank you to everyone who shares otherwise unavailable Vancouver housing market data here.

Watching the stats roll in day after day has been fascinating.

It’s amazing to watch the market change day by day, and the aggregate data provides an even clearer picture.

First of all of course there’s Paulb who’s been providing daily numbers for a long while.  It’s thanks to Paul that we see the daily number of new listings, sold properties and have a total inventory count.  Pauls website is here.

Then there’s VHB, who consistently posts analysis tracking the numbers through the month.  Here’s his most recent post.

We have a new commenter going by the name of HFHC who has been providing other great stats including listing data for the entire lower mainland and a break down of sales by category.

Then there’s Inventory, who’s provided excellent number breakdowns for specific markets as seen in yesterdays post about the low June sales numbers.

And of course everyone else who provides such amazing data, analysis and comments.  I started listing your handles, but the list went on and on and I knew I’d leave out some the best so I’m opting to just send out a big general thanks to ALL of you, you’re amazing.

Keep posting!

-kray

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jesse
Member
3 years 7 months ago

Having these numbers are great for a few reasons, first being that they have been good at predicting month-end sales after about 5 business days of sales. (Inventory is a bit more uncertain but still we have a fair guess.) That is a powerful indicator allowing us to determine market strength in the coming weeks. In effect the blogs know the news weeks in advance of any of the MSM press releases. If nothing else it’s a cool party trick! More hilarity on “da stream”: Apparently even if you buy Vancouver property today with 4% EBITDA and 5:1 leverage you… Read more »

Guest
Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
3 years 7 months ago

And then there are previews of thing to come:

“Ireland’s property crash has hit young first-time buyers the hardest – with many now struggling to hang onto their homes.

The buyers who paid sky-high prices at the height of the Celtic Tiger property boom are now paying the price”

Read more: http://www.irishcentral.com/news/First-time-buyers-pay-the-price-of-housing-bubble-burst-says-new-report-161192815.html#ixzz1zepWpPuE

Guest
pricedoutfornow
3 years 7 months ago

@Keeping An Eye On The Pimps:

I can see this happening here: “the biggest drop since the peak is in the value of one-bed and two-bed apartments” Too many condos with only one or two bedrooms. It’s not easy to stuff 4 people into a 2 bedroom apartment, I’m living this reality every day :s

Those are huge price drops! Yikes, average price of a one bed condo went from $300,000 to $110,000 (not exactly sure why they are quoting these prices in dollars, not euros).

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 7 months ago

Re: Ireland Article

“There isn’t really an investor market at the moment, and the people coming five or 10 years after those who bought for the first time in the boom aren’t really interested in a one or two-bed home.”
______________________________________________________________________

I thought investors swooped in and snapped up cheap properties if prices come down even 10%? I guess that only happens in Vancouver.

Guest
fixie guy
3 years 7 months ago

@3 pricedoutfornow: Makes sense, during the bubble small units would have seen increasing demand as larger ones moved beyond the reach of typical buyers. Developers would have targeted new product towards the highest demand, increasing supply.
It would be interesting to see whether civic markets like Miami and Las Vegas experienced the same thing as Ireland did nationally.

Member
3 years 7 months ago

@pricedoutfornow: Prices are in dollars because it’s an American based magazine.

Guest
MrV
3 years 7 months ago

I would like to add ZRH2YVR to the original commenter’s list, for his detailed & insightful posts

Guest
Harry Wang
3 years 7 months ago

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/07/04/vancouver-home-sales-plunge-to-10-year-low-in-june/

Vancouver home sales plunge to 10-year low in June
June report is out

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 7 months ago

@fixie guy: “It would be interesting to see whether civic markets like Miami and Las Vegas experienced the same thing as Ireland did nationally.” It is not just about how many bedrooms but more importantly it is the overall size of the unit. I am not sure the average size of the units in Ireland but we know a 1 bedroom in Toronto or Vancouver means 600 square feet and 2 bedrooms are around 800 square feet. In places like Miami you can look at the recent condo stock built and 1 bedrooms are generally 800 to 1200 square feet… Read more »

patriotz
Member
3 years 7 months ago

@AG Sage:
Quoting the prices in dollars overstates the decline because the Euro has gone down against the USD over the last 5 years. Remember the mortgages, rents and wages are in Euros too.

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 7 months ago

@patriotz: “Quoting the prices in dollars overstates the decline because the Euro has gone down against the USD over the last 5 years.”

They obviously would have converted all the figures at the same exchange rate. When they looked at old price history it is in Euros not USD. The percent decline is the same. The USD is only relevant to those buying with USD.

patriotz
Member
3 years 7 months ago

@Anonymous:
Let me make it more clear.

Suppose over the last 5 years the Euro had gone down 50% against the USD, but RE prices in Ireland had not changed at all.

Thus quoting in USD you would see a 50% decline in Irish RE prices. But for the people in Ireland nothing would have changed.

What we have in real life is a decline in the Euro price of RE, which matters to the Irish, and a decline in the Euro against the USD adding to the decline in USD, which doesn’t.

patriotz
Member
3 years 7 months ago

@Anonymous:
“They obviously would have converted all the figures at the same exchange rate.”

Forgot to comment on this. Why “obviously”, and at what rate?

Guest
Troll
3 years 7 months ago

@Harry Wang:

“Today, our sales-to-active-listings ratio sits at 13%, which puts us in the lower end of a balanced market.

Wow, the lower end of the balanced market keeps getting lower.

Guest
Rightsizer
3 years 7 months ago

@MrV: I agree, ZRH2YVR is awesome!

Also: Jesse, best place on meth, b5baxter, patriotz, and too many more to name.

I come here for the news, I stay for the discussion.

Member
Best place on meth
3 years 7 months ago

@Troll:

“Wow, the lower end of the balanced market keeps getting lower.”

Yes, I noticed that too.

Based on their own numbers MOI now sits at about 7.9 yet they still choose to call this a balanced market.

I’m not sure whether to call this spin or outright lying by the board.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 7 months ago

@Harry Wang: On the article: Prices appear to be stabilizing base on what the board calls its composite benchmark price index which is up 1.7% over the last year and 0.7% down from May. Translation: despite all our effort, hard work and multiple “adjustments”, we couldn’t make the benchmark price go up again this month, but hey, it’s still going up YOY. not too bad he? Supply does appear to be trending down with new listing off 18.9% in June from May. Compared to a year ago new listings are down 3%. Translation:The numbers are so terrible this month that… Read more »

Guest
Troll
3 years 7 months ago

@Best place on meth: The thing is, at least be consistent with your neighbor, the FVREB. On their Sales to Active Listings chart they show a balanced market between 18% and 22%. That’s a far cry from claiming 13% is balanced.

Also noticed that the Van Sun copy of the story shows the YOY price increase, but leaves out the MOM price decrease as included in the FP copy. Honest mistake.

Guest
fixie guy
3 years 7 months ago

9 Anonymous Says: “It is not just about how many bedrooms but more importantly it is the overall size of the unit..”

My post spoke to size and didn’t mention number of bedrooms.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 7 months ago

According to the REBGV Chief Comedian Eugen Klein, a balanced market is when sale to list ratio is between 10% and 20%. See his explanation here: http://youtu.be/6OYphI3WFU8 (starts at 58 seconds).

But funny enough, some of their members didn’t get the memo about the new definition of a “balanced market”. According to this realtor blog:

“Official Market type: Balanced market with average 15% sales ratio (14% is a Buyer’s Market)”

Funny, eh?

Guest
shriller
3 years 7 months ago

I find the HPI spin amusing. It’s such garbage. I have problems with the Teranet indices because I think they mix house-specific and market-specific pricing factors somewhat dubiously but at least Teranet tries to create a sensible index. The clowns who publish the HPI are, at best, trying to create a matching-estimator for house prices statistically. And with the number of sales last month the standard errors must be getting rather large so any `increase’ is statistically irrelevant. But I’m sure the `matching’ part is not properly done either. I can’t wait for Zillow to invade the Cdn market. As… Read more »

Guest
Troll
3 years 7 months ago

Good mortgage data from BMO in this CBC story, shows 20% of all outstanding BC mortgages have MORE than 25 years left to pay. Remarkable. That’s compared to a national national average of 12% and only 7% in Ontario.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/07/04/bmo-survey-mortgage-duration.html

Guest
fixie guy
3 years 7 months ago

20 Makaya Says: “According to the REBGV Chief Comedian Eugen Klein, a balanced market is when sale to list ratio is between 10% and 20%.”

How does product entering a market five to ten times faster than it’s absorbed calculate out as balanced? ‘Analysts say’ doesn’t quite have enough detail. The industry apparently maintained so tenuous a link between pronouncements and logic that they’re now comfortable just letting go. Up and up 4ever!

Guest
shriller
3 years 7 months ago

@ Troll.
Interesting survey results to be sure. What I would really like to know is the comparable number for Greater Vancouver. In lots of parts of the province, I don’t think people stretched as far to buy homes.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 7 months ago

For those of you who understand french, here is a famous quote from former president Chirac: “les merdes, ca volent en escadrille”

News keep getting bad for Vancouver…

Vancouver no longer ranked in the top 10 most livable cities

Let’s call it “a blow to the BPOE myth”…

Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 7 months ago

@Makaya:

I knew somebody would post that link without reading the article. Specifically the bit that says that they didn’t include the smaller cities, including Vancouver, Melbourne, and Vienna.

You can’t win a game you’re not playing in.

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 7 months ago

@Vote Down The Facts: “Specifically the bit that says that they didn’t include the smaller cities, including Vancouver, Melbourne, and Vienna.”

There goes also the myth that Vancouver is a World Class city…

The thing is, whether you like it or not, Vancouver no longer makes the headlines as “the most livable place in the world”, which was a total fallacy anyway.

Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 7 months ago

@Makaya: “The thing is, whether you like it or not, Vancouver no longer makes the headlines as “the most livable place in the world”, which was a total fallacy anyway.”

It probably will make the headline again (or at least be in the top 5) once the Mercer survey comes out. Then you can all start complaining about how these surveys don’t actually mean anything.

The best comment is on the Vancouver Sun article from a poster who says “In other news, the Canucks failed to win the World Series”. That about sums it up.

Member
Best place on meth
3 years 7 months ago

@Vote Down The Facts:

The Mercer survey is designed for use by employers assigning hardship allowances as part of job relocation.

It’s irrelevant when it comes to quality of life for locals.

Guest
oneangryslav2
3 years 7 months ago

@shriller:

And with the number of sales last month the standard errors must be getting rather large so any `increase’ is statistically irrelevant.

I’ve commented on this before and suggested that an enterprising reporter (or blogger!) may want to ask the RE Board for the size of the standard errors in their calculations.

Guest
gokou3
3 years 7 months ago

@Vote Down The Facts: The point, at least by one organization, Vancouver is not considered in the same league as NYC / HK / London / Toronto (!) etc.

Member
Best place on meth
3 years 7 months ago

Vancouver rated 16th most livable city on Monocle’s index.

http://www.psfk.com/2010/06/top-25-most-liveable-cities-2010.html

Important criteria in this survey are safety/crime, international connectivity, climate/sunshine, quality of architecture, public transportation, tolerance, environmental issues and access to nature, urban design, business conditions, pro-active policy developments and medical care.

Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 7 months ago

@Best place on meth: “The Mercer survey is designed for use by employers assigning hardship allowances as part of job relocation. It’s irrelevant when it comes to quality of life for locals.” When people relocate for work they become locals, by definition. The surveys are irrelevant in my opinion because they have to assign an arbitrary weighting to the various metrics they use. If somebody doesn’t care too much about healthcare because they’re young and fit, for example, then if a high weighting is used in that category it skews the results against things that actually matter to them. If… Read more »

Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 7 months ago

@Best place on meth: “Vancouver rated 16th most livable city on Monocle’s index. http://www.psfk.com/2010/06/top-25-most-liveable-cities-2010.html

That was in 2010. In 2011 Vancouver ranked 20th.

Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 7 months ago

@gokou3: “The point, at least by one organization, Vancouver is not considered in the same league as NYC / HK / London / Toronto (!) etc.”

Yes, because they used size as part of the qualification criteria. Vancouver isn’t as big as NYC, HK, London, or Toronto. That’s indisputable.

Member
Best place on meth
3 years 7 months ago

@Vote Down The Facts:

So we’re falling on 2 lists, and dropping right off the other.

Guest
patient renter
3 years 7 months ago

This is good for a laugh!

The Manhattenization of Toronto. Quick, buy now or be priced out forever!

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/the–manhattanization–of-toronto-will-change-family-housing-dreams.html

VMD
Member
3 years 7 months ago

June 2012 REBGV Stats Package (pdf)

I’ve also collected 2001-2012 REBGV Stats packages, see here

midnite toker
Member
midnite toker
3 years 7 months ago

@Anonymous: Who can afford to have more than 1 kid today. People ask if I’m going to have another, I say “maybe we’ll get a puppy”

Member
Best place on meth
3 years 7 months ago

Summary of June HPI:

All -0.7%
SFH -0.6%
Apt -0.9%
T/H -0.3%

I was expecting no change for June and declines to start next month so this is a bit of a bonus.

Member
Best place on meth
3 years 7 months ago

Richmond and Van West detached both down 2%.

And we’re off…

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 7 months ago

@Vote Down The Facts: It probably will make the headline again (or at least be in the top 5) once the Mercer survey comes out.
By definition, you won’t know until the report is out… what’s your point?

Then you can all start complaining about how these surveys don’t actually mean anything.
Who is complaining? Other than that, do you have any value to contribute to this blog?

Guest
Anonymous
3 years 7 months ago

@Best place on meth:

HPI down.

Yes, this is a “balanced market” with lots of new opportunities for first time buyers.

Hey Global, are you reading this? Make sure you report it on tonight’s news.

Guest
TNT
3 years 7 months ago

A friend of mine a RE agent on the North Shore just told me that RE agents are leaving Vancouver for Ontario/Alberta because it is so slow. I guess the GVREB would call a BALANCED market. Also a shift amongst moving companies over the past 5 mnths, many customers are selling and moving into rentals because they are aware that the market is unbalanced and overpriced. I guess the GVREB would call it a TREND.

Guest
Vote Down The Facts
3 years 7 months ago

@Makaya: “By definition, you won’t know until the report is out… what’s your point?” My point is obvious – that Vancouver didn’t exist on the list you posted because the city wasn’t large enough to be considered for inclusion. There’s no reason to believe that Vancouver would drop off the Mercer survey at this time, as there’s been no substantial change in the city to cause that to happen. The change that caused us to fall off the EIU list was they changed their selection criteria to remove 50% of the cities that were previously on it, including cities such… Read more »

VMD
Member
3 years 7 months ago

Single Family Home HPI and Median prices:

Area HPI-MoM HPI-YoY MEDN-MoM MEDN-YoY
Van West -2.0% +3.2% -6.0% -14.0%
Richmond -2.0% -2.7% -7.4% -6.9%
Van East +0.3% +7.1% -3.7% +2.3%

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 7 months ago

@Vote Down The Facts: Yes – correcting basic facts. You were too busy trying to be first to bash Vancouver to actually read the article you posted. First, I read the article before posting it and it’s not me who wrote the headline of that article, I just reposted it. If you had been around this blog longer, you would know through my comments that I like Vancouver a lot, like most people on this blog, yet I’m well-traveled enough to know that these rankings are just BS and don’t mean anything. Vancouver is not, by far, the most livable… Read more »

Member
ScubaSteve
3 years 7 months ago

DETACHED – HARDEST HIT AREAS

West Vancouver (Down 65%)
Jun/12 = 47 sales
Jun/11 = 134 sales

Port Moody (Down 65%)
Jun/12 = 11 sales
Jun/11 = 31 sales

Richmond (Down 52%)
Jun/12 = 76 sales
Jun/11 = 158 sales

Vancouver-West (Down 52%)
Jun/12 = 102 sales
Jun/11 = 213 sales

North Vancouver (Down 52%)
Jun/12 = 73 sales
JUn/11 = 153 sales

Vancouver-East (Down 41%)
Jun/12 = 107 sales
Jun/11 = 180 sales

Coquitlam (Down 31%)
Jun/12 = 101 sales
Jun/11 = 147 sales

Burnaby (Down 31%)
Jun/12 = 83 sales
Jun/11 = 120 sales

Guest
WFT?
3 years 7 months ago

@fixie guy:
“According to the REBGV Chief Comedian Eugen Klein, a balanced market is when sale to list ratio is between 10% and 20%.”

WTF? I’d say that sell to list ratio that low is indicative of a crashing and burning market. Eugine Klien apparantly thinks that markets are booming or balanced only. A real estate crash has never ocurred in the history of the human race according to Eugine Klein’s definitions.

patriotz
Member
3 years 7 months ago

@Makaya:
None of the international rankings take into account cost of living versus salaries (because they are for the expense-account crowd), and thus are totally meaningless for the ordinary local.

The Canadian Moneysaver (I think it’s from them) rankings do and we’ve seen where Vancouver ranks in them.

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