BC, data, supply

2012: Worst July since 2008

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98 Comments

Ring the bell!  July 2012 has come to a close.

Soon we’ll see the press releases from the REBGV (and more entertaining from the GVREB) but it’s starting to look a lot like 2008 again.

Sales have dropped off dramatically, we’re down about 16% from last July and about 9% from last month.

Listings are growing slower than they did in the spring, but MOI is close to what it was in July 2008 according to VMD:

July 2012 Sales:
YoY: -16%
MoM: -9%

Months Inventory:

2012-07: ~8.5
2012-06: 7.8
2012-05: 6.3
2012-04: 5.9
2012-03: 5.3
...
2011-07: 5.9
...
2008-07: 8.8

According to madashell we needed to see less than 115 listings on the last day of the month to have lower sales volume than 2008.

It looks like we just squeaked under that, Paulb says we saw 106 sales for the day.  Here are the rest of the stats for July 31st:

New Listings 186
Price Changes 137
Sold Listings 106
TI:19188

 

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[…] “I don’t even talk about housing anymore with some friends. These are the friends that have bought 800k to 1 million dollar homes and are in their early thirties. Being close friends, it is disconcerting how badly they will be hurt when this bubble falls apart. So I don’t talk about it. Tried to warn them though.” – 900kCrackHouse at VCI 1 Aug 2012 10:45am […]

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[…] man – did he really think that he would be able to have doctors shill his development..?” – local observer at VCI 1 Aug 2012 12:30pm Share: This entry was posted in 15. Misallocation of Resources, 16. Missed The Boat? and tagged […]

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Proud and extremely rich Chinese home owners

@Boombust:

This province will escape reccession because Chinese are the majority in Vancover and they keep investing billions of dollar in this was once dead city.

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Proud and extremely rich Chinese home owners

@900kCrackHouse:

Don’t worry Bosa’s main customer base is Rich Mainland Chinese and well paid chinese middle class,not the average wage earners white folks or poor local Chinese.

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Proud and extremely rich Chinese home owners

Don’t worry stupid bears;even it has retreated to 2008 level,we still enjoy a huge gaint after 2002.The majority of us(the prudent and thrifty Chinese) bought our house or houses in mid 90 when we moved to this was once dead water city.Isn’t that white bears has been drumming the doom since 93.In long run Van RE will reward those who put their money in the right spot,instead of drug and alcohol.

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[…] “The Months of Inventory (MOI) metric for Westside Vancouver houses rose for the fifth consecutive month in June. It has risen from 4.39 in February to 12.51 in July. Active listing volumes for detached Westside houses are still over 1000 listings and sales dropped to only 83 homes this month.” – good-format relaying info from Sam Wyatt at VCI 1 Aug 2012 9:31pm […]

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Anon

Thanks ScubaSteve, we’ll keep watching, very interested in seeing how this pans out.

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ScubaSteve

@Anon:

They are averages, so North Van could have sold a few houses worth like $10m which brought the average up. The only problem is, that doesn’t explain the +6% for attached. So I think North Van maybe just had one of those months where only high priced places sold and lower ends didn’t. Not really sure, would need to sell the full pricing data.

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Anon

I don’t see how North Van can be a + 10.1% for detached?, doesn’t make sense to me…is anybody able to explain?
Thanks.

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fixie guy

@79 Anonymous: Agreed, he used it to convert that minority into a majority. The current US election demonstrates how important the economy is to an incumbent.

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Romeo Jordan

Mclovin – don’t give up your (Saturday) night job.

Mmm, mmm good – enjoy every last drop, you piece of shat.

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rp1

#79 @Anonymous: “Harper was first elected in 2006, so unless he was pulling magic levers from the opposition bench your theory is a bit thin.”

And later that year, we got zero down 40 year mortgages from the CMHC.

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good-format

I got an email from Sam Wyatt.

The Months of Inventory (MOI) metric for Westside Vancouver houses rose for the fifth consecutive month in June. It has risen from 4.39 in February to 12.51 in July.

…..

Active listing volumes for detached Westside houses are still over 1000 listings and sales dropped to only 83 homes this month.

……

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Afro_In_Exile

The Great Bearded One (a.k.a Garth Turner) is on fire today! Apparently the GTA (a.k.a CondoVille) is gearing up for a bloodbath soon: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/08/01/wont-end-well/

As for VCI, it’s funny how many comments have over 20+ votes today. It’s Bear Market Appreciation Day :):):)!

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McLovin

RJ thanks for taking time away from your job at McDonalds to share the battle earned knowledge of a 21 year old.

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McLovin

I agree with previous comments. I am giddy with these numbers but it all seems so easy. We are no longer fighting a rear guard action in Dunkirk we are 200 miles from Berlin with no Germans in sight.

Where have all the Bulls gone? I guess they are finally realizing that we can be wrong for a very long time but we only need to be right once.

This melt down will be possibility the biggest Vancouver has ever seen especially in light of how there were no external shocks that caused it. Prices just started to go down. Also the fact it went on way way too long due to artificial stimulus.

Vancouver put on your crash helmets!

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Romeo Jordan

I agree – actually i think this could be the once every THREE generations CRASH for Vancouver, we could see nominal price declines in the 60% range.

Muppets, pay attention.

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jesse

Chart of the day from Ben Rabidoux: http://t.co/fLT64csY

Add in July’s figures using a permanent marker.

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ReadyToPop

Manufacturing is slumping across the globe as confidence in the recovery ebbs and Europe’s troubles ripple through other economies.

Fresh data released Wednesday show manufacturing activity stalling in the United States, declining in Europe, and close to contracting in emerging economies such as China.

Global slowdown dashes recovery hopes

This ain’t your Dad’s recession….

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Anonymous

@good-format:

“Haper’s government engineered this house bubble to artificially lift Canadian economy in order to get re-elected as minority government”

Harper was first elected in 2006, so unless he was pulling magic levers from the opposition bench your theory is a bit thin.

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Joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs

@s: Thank you.

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Navin R. Johnson

@good-format:

Also, I fear a much lower demand for Canadian raw resources in coming years…. I see more upcoming damage than just a housing correction…

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s

@Joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs

Expired listings

People pulling their homes off the market expecting higher prices in the fall:)

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Joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs

How did we get below 19k when new listings are higher than sold listings?

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fixie guy

59 Anonymous Says: “…I hope for a “soft landing” and gradual adjustment, allowing rents and income to catch up.”

Soft for whom? Wages are a main component of the cost of goods and services. Generally rising wages uncoupled from a mass change in the type of work can only be nominal increases, which equates to inflation. That ‘soft landing’ you wish for home owners and real estate industries would devastate savers and those on fixed incomes. Better to wish for strong worker retraining programs, I see no justice that I should wait a full generation before these unearned special privileges are finally flushed from the system.
Many were misled into both buying and building homes and it cost those on the sidelines, now it’s time to switch places. Take it up with the deceivers.

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