Friday Free-for-all!

It’s a fine Friday for another fabulous free-for-all post, so let do our regular end of the week news round-up and open topic discussion thread!  Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Central one hopes for slip, not plunge
Jurock: sales and avg price way down
Harper wants to destroy RE market?
Economists forecast 5-10% price drop
Hoping for years of stagnation?
Scotiabank: correction in TO & VAN
Realtors: Calgary will avoid downturn
Richmond Realtor warns of decline
Carney: Rates can go up
Canadas trade gap widens

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Manatee
Guest
Manatee

How are the UBC sales of new condos going? Looking like there is less of a frenzy.

Vulture Fun
Guest
Vulture Fun

I recently ran my standard rental search terms through Craiglist (“house”, $1300 – $1800, two bedroom, with photo) and came up with 597 hits. It’s been hanging around the 490 – 550 level for many months. Previous years:
Aug 20, 2008 – 163
Aug 12, 2009 – 330
Aug 15, 2010 – 607

I’m glad to see that some posters are having an easy time finding a place. When I was looking in October, 2011, it was a bitch. We looked at 27 places before we found something decent.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a nice spike in rental listings due to people who tried to sell, pulled their listing, and will list again in a year “when the market improves”. Bwa ha ha ha ha.

rp1
Guest
rp1

#1 @Manatee: “How are the UBC sales of new condos going?”

It’s a ghost town 😉

rp1
Guest
rp1

The Georgia Straight article is deranged.

ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve

@Vulture Fun:

Those are interesting stats, but you must realize that they are unscientific, e.g., craigslist might just be getting more popular and more people are using it. So you would need to, at the very minimum, compare your search to generic search terms such as “sofa” or “television”. If craigslist is getting 4 times as many hits and 4 times as many rental listings, then it is a moot point.

ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve

The Richmond realtor claiming a 30% crash in prices should be so lucky. By the time this is all said and done, Richmond will probably end up leading the entire country with the biggest overall drop in prices. If Canada drops 25-30% nationwide, and Vancouver drops 45-50%, then Richmond should drop 65-70%. Ground zero baby, ground zero.

registered
Member
registered

@4 rp1 Says:“The Georgia Straight article is deranged.”

True, but in a way that accurately reflects the market. The title says is all. This affects Vancouver, what does Canada have to do with it? Apparently he believes taxpayers in Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario….. should backstop Vancouver house prices and real estate industry first.

“So any bailouts would come from provincial taxpayers and provincial credit union deposit insurance corporations.”

The consequences of your actions can be a harsh task master. Your delusions are coming home to roost.

patriotz
Member
@fixie guy: Smith is wrong about so many things it’s hard to know where to start, but this is as good as any: “The Conservative government has repeatedly reduced the mortgage-amortization period, dropping it from 40 years to 35 years to 30 years, and finally, to 25 years.” Of course, when they came into office, it was 25 years. Smith is talking as though the Cons had an agenda to bring down RE prices, when of course their agenda was to push them up time and again until they won a majority, and then try to engineer a “soft landing”. Unfortunately, Vancouver was already in bubble territory in 2006, which means a “soft landing” has been impossible for some time. Which is something the Cons have never cared about. What they have cared about all along was Toronto, which Flaherty… Read more »
patriotz
Member
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Vulture Fun: “I recently ran my standard rental search terms through Craiglist”

The same ads are duplicated over and over again on CL. Sometimes you can find 10 or more postings of the same unit on given search. You would need to filter out the duplicates to get any real indication of units available.

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Guest
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs

I posted the link to this Van Sun article here yesterday but nobody responded. Can any RE bears rebut this article? It says the RE correction will be mild and short lived and RE prices will start rising slightly nexxt year and the year after. It says sellers who see prices falling now are removing their listings so this will lead to reduced supply, which minimizes any downward pressure on RE prices. It also says continuing low interest rates and employment growth are two factors that will keep prices high. How do the RE bears respond to this? It’s the most recent article in the Van Sun on the RE market.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/Metro+home+prices+will+slip+plunge+Central+Credit/7060886/story.html

Apocarypse Now
Guest
Apocarypse Now

Wow, what brilliant forecasting! The Province (and the Montreal Gazette) really get the scoop!

“Housing slump could hit Vancouver and Toronto”

http://www.theprovince.com/business/Guest+column+Housing+slump+could+Vancouver+Toronto/7069627/story.html

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@Vulture Fun:

There’s a ridiculous amount of RV’s for sale on Craigslist.

Maybe people can live in those.

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Guest
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
There’s also this gem of a bullish RE comment on the same Van Sun article I just linked to. It’s by Acetrader. They’re just begging for a RE bear to set them straight: “Obviously none of the posters on here are homeowners and therefore have no skin in the game. In NV we have a 3-6 billion $$ shipbuilding deal tol create 1000s of jobs. BC has a slew of mining, pipepline, tourism, and development proposals all which will create many more jobs. we have: 1) stable financial system 2) world renowned school systems 3) relatively low government corruption 4) opportunities for all 5) good environmental policies 6) proximity to the PacRim 7) rigid regulatory environment nowhere else in the world can match up There are heat waves across Europe, the US and Asia. Sky high house prices across Europe.… Read more »
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Guest
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
@Vulture Fun: I’ve rented all my life and I typically move once every year or two so I have a lot of experience with the rental market in Metro Van. My sense is that the number of affordable, quality vacancies can vary tremendously from month to month. We have a very low vacancy rate, according to CMHC (I think 0.7% in Van proper, last time I checked). But some months are better than others, if a spike of people have moved. Generally, spring and summer are better than fall and winter. October would be a difficult month because all the students are settled into school and are not moving until spring. Also, not all vacancies are listed on craigslist. In a tight rental market, a lot of the good places are found through word of months, friends move and recommend… Read more »
gordholio
Member

ScubaSteve: Agreed. If Richmond plummets 50%, that would mean those unliveable 1940s-era teardown crapholes on microscopic lots directly under the flight path will still cost some poor sucker $250K rather than a half million. Looking at it this way, a 50% slice and dice seems rather mild.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

stupid bears just keep giving million of reasons for being price-out; more reasons as days go by.

VMD
Member

Canada unemployment rate: 7.3% <- 7.2% <- 7.3% <- 7.3%
Vancouver unemployment rate: 6.8% <- 6.4% <- 6.4% <- 6.2%

we are different.

N
Guest
N

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs:

The arguments in the article are so completely without merit that they do not warrant serious rebuttal.

If falling prices really resulted in a decrease in supply of a magnitude that offset the price fall, no commodity would ever go down in price. If low interest rates could prop up prices forever, US houses would cost as much as they did in 2006.

jesse
Member

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: “I await (and hope) for intelligent and provable rebuttals”

I think he means “I await a provable rebuttal to my unprovable assertions.” Fellow’s in the wrong schoolyard.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@VMD:

BC unemployment rate jumps from 6.6 to 7.0

http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/unemployment-stats/

JR
Guest
JR

@patriotz: Yes, let’s blame the American’s for our mortgage mess.

If you buy crack from someone, and you become a crack addict, it’s your fault not the dealers fault.
If you buy crack from someone, and it’s not crack, it your fault not the dealers fault.
If you buy crack from someone and then get caught with it, it’s your fault not the dealers fault.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

@Anonymous: “The same ads are duplicated over and over again on CL. Sometimes you can find 10 or more postings of the same unit on given search. You would need to filter out the duplicates to get any real indication of units available.”

Even then you’d need to know if the units available now are of the same type of those available 6 months ago. Tracking the number of listings at a certain price may just be telling you about price distribution changes. Perhaps the extra listings you’re seeing now are of a lower quality, but still within the $1300-$1800 price range.

Also the keyword “house” doesn’t guarantee a property type match, only that the word is mentioned somewhere within the listing.

There are likely far more reliable ways of tracking vacancy rates than craigslist searches.

TNT
Guest
TNT

@13- Best place on meth Says

Toy’s being sold off, another sure sign of belt tightening, reduced cash flow.
Sales listings excelling in bikes, boats, cars, RV’s, holiday bookings, Spa’s, luxury items, food purchases…
Survival instinct.
Just like down south.

Theo
Guest
Theo

@Vote Down The Facts: Although I agree the craigslist index is not a perfect accurate measure, don’t you think ad repetition indicates a certain amount of desperation?

The good places go on one ad.

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