It’s that time of the week again… Time for our end of the week new round up and open topic discussion thread! Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:
–Canadians carry stupid debt levels
–Canada better off than USA?
–Average price to jump this month?
–Chinas glut of unsold goods
-(lazy editor, More links to follow)
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
If Canadian house prices don’t correct, we’ll end up like the Dutch:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/08/dutch-pay-the-price-for-poor-housing-policy/
US: No recession now, but when
http://pragcap.com/no-recession-now-but-when
Europe: SHTF
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/08/europe-marches-into-recession/
China: what’s cooking?
http://pragcap.com/chinas-slowdown-can-no-longer-be-masked-by-cooked-economic-data
Japan: LOL China
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9491069/China-bubble-in-danger-zone-warns-Bank-of-Japan.html
Marc Faber: Iron ore
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/marc-faber-iron-ore-lady-has-sung
Bill McBride: US housing
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/08/new-home-sales-increase-in-july-to.html
John Maudlin: Germany
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/08/is-germany-entering-a-recession/
Economist: South Seas Apple Inc.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/08/daily-chart-6
I looked for this, quite relevant to BC. Australian Minister says mining boom is over:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-23/australia-s-mining-bonanza-is-over-resources-minister-says.html
Does anyone have info on how many presale condos were sold this year? vs how many total?
Ozzie wrote “Vancouver added 8,000 condos into a market that last year saw only 4,000 sales”
http://www2.jurock.com/hotproperty/tips.asp
I am watching Metro area, as Silver, Moda still have units unsold, how would developer price their Station Square ones? I have heard it’s coming out Oct 1st.
Also Cambie Garden, since MarineGateway was quite successful.
Widespread manufacturing woes test fragile global economy
But that will have no effect on Vancouver of course, because it has no manufacturing anyway.
🙂
Peripheral RE connection but I thought it’s worth quoting just because it’s so ridiculous:
Disclosure of financial documents in Canucks owner Francesco Aquilini’s divorce proceedings could significantly damage the city’s hockey team, a British Columbia Supreme Court judge has heard.
George Macintosh, a lawyer for Mr. Aquilini, told Justice Nathan Smith on Thursday that releasing details of his client’s finances in his divorce from estranged wife Taliah could threaten the Canucks brand, fan loyalty and relationships with sponsors.
The Only Way Out for China by Andy Xie.
Copper leads global growth – another good article by Pragcap.
Most students expect to graduate more than $20,000 in debt
By the time Hardik Jadeja graduates from the MBA program at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management next year, he expects to be more than $100,000 in debt.
The 28-year-old has already borrowed $35,000 from his family and has $47,000 in student loans. Tuition, books, rent and other living expenses add up to about $70,000 a year, he said.
Tell us who’s going to buy the boomers’ houses at today’s prices to pay for their retirement, again?
@G:
“Ozzie wrote “Vancouver added 8,000 condos into a market that last year saw only 4,000 sales””
Here he is talking about it;
@gordholio:
“My friends, for example, who want to sell their condo and buy again immediately”
If they are intending to move up, at least they’ll be better off staying put.
@gordholio: “given that wages aren’t increasing, given that BPOE cost of living is out of control, given that RE prices are stratospheric (though a bit less stratospheric than a year ago), given the gobs of new product coming on to the market as developers vainly try to catch the end of the bubble, given new mortgage restrictions, given that interest rates have nowhere to go but up”
Disagree, disagree, agree, disagree, agree, agree (but not in a zerohedge sort of way).
I thought the following was pretty interesting:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48768746
Faber is a very thoughtful analyst, and I believe people should listen more carefully to them than to market pundits that are employed by firms that have a vested interest in stock markets climbing (just as one should never listen to a real estate agent prognosticate about where real estate prices are going).
If Faber is right, and 2013 does in fact see a global recession – even a mild one – Canada will get smoked economically, and Vancouver home prices will collapse from these levels. Not that this is a terribly new thought or anything…
@gordolio
Your friends cannot accept a change of paradigm in a few months. They are not idiots, they are going through the seven stages of grief.
Hey “Extremely Rich and Powerful and Proud Chinese Homeowner” or whatever your stupid handle is…
9 month old suspension bridge collapses in China…
China… Not ready for prime time…
@patriotz:
“But that will have no effect on Vancouver of course, because it has no manufacturing anyway.”
Not true… Vancouver has a thriving meth cooking industry…
AMC is thinking of developing a Vancouver Franchise of “Breaking Bad”.
2 rp1 Says:“I looked for this, quite relevant to BC. Australian Minister says mining boom is over…”
Not very relevant. A 2006 Census result put mining, gas and oil combined at 0.9% of the workforce. The last Census found that adding forestry, fishing and quarrying employed about 45,000. Real estate and construction combined runs around 336,000 not including building support services, manufacturing is around 195,000. The only categories smaller than all the BC natural resources industries combined are Utilities and Agriculture, so a mining slowdowns’ greatest impact will be as fodder for excuses.
I found it interesting, MSM getting some sense of impending decline in RE.
“Working title for the next phase of the housing market: Revenge of the first-time buyer.”
14 PCinWA Says: “… 2013 does in fact see a global recession – even a mild one – Canada will get smoked economically, and Vancouver home prices will collapse from these levels…”
The global economy sputtered over a period of unparalleled growth in Vancouver prices so it makes little sense to tie a collapse to them now. Vancouver will do what all irrationally priced markets have always done without Greece’s help.
@Bo Xilai
Forget the complicated transition to domestic consumption, the next phase of China’s economic growth model can be rebuilding collapsed infrastructure.
@gordholio: “Yet they somehow blindly believe their stupid-ass realtor when she says the current slump is just a “local thing” and that it’ll all turn around in September”
It’s hard to blame people for thinking things will turn around since over the past few years there has been a couple slumps/crashes and it has turned around each time. I truly believe it’s not going to turn around this time, but many will be in denial until the bitter end and will never sell.
Yup, and I am only 90% sure it wont turn around this time. In fact, I am less sure now than I was in 2008. This market has shown us that it can stay irrational through thick and thin. Don’t get me wrong, it has to go back to fundamentals at some point, and I fully believe that has started, but I wouldn’t bet money on a date.
Despite their material comfort and living in one of the most Asian cities in North America, HAM don’t like it here and are not assimilating. You can bet that once they realize they’re deep in negative equity, they will catch the first plane out of YVR.
http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2012/07/29/post-immigration-syndrome/
@fixie guy: “manufacturing is around 195,000”
What does BC manufacture? (sincere question)