Housing crash implications for banks

If you haven’t seen it yet, you should really check out this post by Ben Rabidoux over at The Economic Analyst.

This report was put together mid-June and things haven’t gotten any better since then.

It’s a lot of stuff you already know, but some data you may not have seen and it’s jam packed with beautiful charts.

Check out the how the BC economy has grown in construction, but flatlined outside:

And there’s this little data point as well:

Before diving into the data, consider this fun anecdote: There are currently over 5,000 homes in Vancouver metro area for sale for over $1 million according to MLS.ca.  In comparison, the NAR reports that in April, just over 7,000 homes sold in the entire US were sold for over $1 million.  And this despite the fact that the US population is 135X greater than the metro Vancouver market, the average personal disposable income in the US is 20% higher than the Vancouver average ($37,100 vs. $30,800) while US per capita GDP is higher than the average for all of BC.

Do yourself a favour and read the full post over at The Economic Analyst if you haven’t already.

 

 

 

 

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mobile vhb
mobile vhb
8 years ago

@good-format: thanks for you chart and figurings. It looks to me like you included a ‘zero’ in your 7 day average for Monday. I usually treat holidays as ‘missing data’ like weekends since it gives a more realistic projection. So, I’m not sure we are under 2008 pace yet. A few more 49 sales days would do it though!

patriotz
8 years ago

@BLISTINGAGENT:
“Wow the Georgia Straight is on a roll publishing some of the worst housing-related articles I’ve ever read.”

To think this was the same paper that was the arch-enemy of RE developer mayor Tom Campbell and pretty much everything capitalist.

And you thought Jann Wenner had sold out.

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@Ray: Oh god, please don’t tell me they spent 3 million on a website and it’s serving up a desktop view to my iPhone.

Responsive web design guys, you should be able to get that for three million dollars.

UnagiDon
UnagiDon
8 years ago

@Joe_blown_away: “Prospective sellers are expected to respond to weaker market conditions by curtailing listings activity, which will limit excessive inventory in the housing market.”

LOL. That ‘prediction’ is highly inconsistent with what actually happened in the US. But it sounds very authoritative because they use fancy words like “curtail”.

Ray
Ray
8 years ago

New Vancouver.ca website:

“Affordability will be achieved primarily through the tenure as renting is inherently less expensive than owning.”

Apparently this webmaster didn’t get the memo that renting (minus the homeownership risks) should be more expensive than owning. I’ll give them a break since they based this website on information from the “last 3 years”. There is nothing “inherent” about it.

http://vancouver.ca/people-programs/creating-new-market-rental-housing.aspx

BLISTINGAGENT
BLISTINGAGENT
8 years ago

@Anonymous: Wow the Georgia Straight is on a roll publishing some of the worst housing-related articles I’ve ever read.

s
s
8 years ago

Vancouver.ca developed for $3 million.

I’m sure the old site would have functioned just fine instead of spending $3 million improving a site. I’m sure there are better ways to spend $3 million.

http://www.theprovince.com/news/million+rebuild+City+Vancouver+website/7059866/story.html

Joe_blown_away
Joe_blown_away
8 years ago

““A recent tumble in home sales coupled with a drop in headline prices have some wondering (hoping?), whether Canada’s longtime poster child for a potential housing price bubble is set to burst,” the report concluded. “While a weakening state of demand in Metro Vancouver makes short-term price drops a near certainty, we expect that declines will be both modest and temporary.

“Prospective sellers are expected to respond to weaker market conditions by curtailing listings activity, which will limit excessive inventory in the housing market. Short of another recession and large-scale job losses, market activity in the Lower Mainland is expected to be characterized by a relatively low sales and a flat-to-weak pricing environment.”

According to Central 1, B.C. as a whole should also see prices decline this year before rising slightly in 2013 and 2014.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/Metro+home+prices+will+slip+plunge+Central+Credit/7060886/story.html

good-format
good-format
8 years ago

If the current trend holds, we will see 1,364 sales for this August.

The following is copied from VHB’s posting.

 year  sell  list  sell/list
2001   2566  3315   77.4%
2002   2468  3287   75.1%
2003   3290  3693   89.1%
2004   2537  3986   63.6%
2005   3649  4366   83.6%
2006   2998  4500   66.6%
2007   3384  4408   76.8%
2008   1568  4331   36.2%
2009   3441  4544   75.7%
2010   2202  3750   58.7%
2011   2378  4685   50.8%
Mean   2771  4079   67.9%
median 2566  4331
good-format
good-format
8 years ago

Copied from PaulB’s number
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca

 Date     Listing  Sales   S/L   Price(+-)  Inv    Inv(+-)
Aug-01      258     61    23.6     99     18,708
Aug-02      182     49    26.9    114     18,740    32
Aug-03      202     93    46.0     92     18,799    59

Aug-06        0      0       0      0	     -
Aug-07      232    113    48.7    128     18,784   -15
Aug-08      210     49    23.3    105     18,851    67

Total-Cur 1,084    365    33.7    538              143
7-day avg   118     43    36.8     63               20
Total-EST 3,798  1,364    35.9   1980     19,321	

7 Calendar day average use the previous 7 days’ data (including weekends and holidays).

oneangryslav2
oneangryslav2
8 years ago

@Best place on meth: According to Jeff’s reasoning, it is technically impossible for the MOI to be either above or below 1.0. Anybody who doesn’t sell their home in a particular month has not priced it to sell and, therefore, didn’t really want to sell it anyway (according to the philosopher-king, Jeff). So, MOI must equal 1.0 at all times.

ffej
ffej
8 years ago

@Anonymous: Wow! Real Estate must really make you rich if you’re willing to give away 80 grand!

And just imagine how much all those capitol letters cost! 😀

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@ScubaSteve:
This guy is my favorite, he’s been at it for months and still any “give away” his white rock condo for 80k less than (he thinks) it’s worth:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/rds/reb/3150107973.html

AfroFrancophone
AfroFrancophone
8 years ago

@Anonymous: Reading between the lines, the GVREB is saying “Buy NOW! Flaherty will never let prices fall too sharply!”. Pumpers pumping to the very end. The recent downturn has nothing to do with the amortization changes anyway. According to Garth Turner (to be taken with some grain of salt, even tho the guy seems to know his shit), the new amortizations rules haven’t had their full effect yet, and would not until after 5 months since their enactment.

We are only 1 month in…

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
8 years ago

Hey Jeff,

With today’s numbers I would imagine MOI has probably climbed to 1.02, wouldn’t you think?

rp1
rp1
8 years ago

#123 @Best place on meth: “Anyone think we’ll see a day anywhere near 181 this August?”

In the new MOI we swap listings and sales.

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

A comment on CTV news article…. Classic!

“We bought our house 2 years ago. We put 25,000 over asking just to be able to get the house since there were bidding wars going on in the area. If I decided to sell, no way am I taking a loss, regardless of what they say the market is doing. The market may cool, but hopefully housing prices won’t go lower than what the home is worth in today’s market.”

Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canada-s-housing-market-cooling-scotiabank-1.907491#ixzz23100MQJM

Loon
Loon
8 years ago

omfg, 210 new listings.
I see for sale signs popping up all over my west van neighborhood (I rent a “garden suite”), it looks like a boomer rush for the exit. I think sellers are start to eye each other up and think to themselves, I can go lower than you. I see some nice places a tad under a mill with seller is motivated in the description, they need to fund their retirement somehow, with life expectancy creeping ever higher. Damn you medical system !

We are not in Kansas anymore, better lay some OSB over the windows for a mother of a tornado blowing our way.

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

http://www.straight.com/article-749566/vancouver/finance-minister-jim-flaherty-may-intervene-amortization-period-home-mortgages

Ya like you really think he’s going to increase the amortization after only a few months at 25..

Bag it and tag it
Bag it and tag it
8 years ago

Hey Jeff! 105 price increases today…I’m surprised you haven’t brought it up

HAM Solo
HAM Solo
8 years ago

My guess is that we will post at least one day of less than 30 sales in the next two weeks.

McLovin
McLovin
8 years ago

RJ : “As a very well known and logic-based Vancouver housing bear” Well, Romeo Jordan here’s what we know very well about you on this blog: You were a major bear until you surprisingly went out and bought a condo. You then spent 3 months trying to tell us that your “numbers” made sense and we should all do the same. 6 months later you reversed course and sold the place for a loss. Since then you come and gone occasionally and make immature self serving statements. You may also be posting under the handle Ravishing Rick. During that period you lost money flipping a used Porsche in Portland, got fired from a job as some sort of “financial advisor” for a power house firm located in Surrey and got dumped by some chick you had been ranting about. She… Read more »

McLovin
McLovin
8 years ago

Could yesterday’s “high” level of sales have anything to do with Monday being a holiday? Were sales possibly not processed?

Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
8 years ago

It’s not that Vancouverites have found their calculators, and realized that the math doesn’t work, what this means, is the greatest pool of fools has finally dried up.

I doubt that even Rennie can blow life back into this thing.