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[…] Average home price to dip 7.8% -MOI: This one goes past eleven? -The top ten weakest markets -Cheatsheet: What percentage drop equals rise? -Genworth: Condos demand will continue -Jump in […]

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Charlie Smith says that building bridges, transit and highways caused the real estate rush.

http://www.straight.com/article-766391/vancouver/kevin-falcon-affected-market

Sounds like Eugen Klein’s comment about Maple Ridge prices going up 30% in one year because of the Golden Ears Bridge (except that they didn’t).

http://www.vancourier.com/Blaming+Chinese+high+house+prices+Vancouver+racist/6417310/story.html

No bubble. Just transit. Evil evil transit.

VMD
Member

Question:
in July 2012, Whistler Apartment HPI shows
3 year change of +78.4%
5 year change of +76.3%

Now look at Whistler Apartment Median price:

2012 Jan-Jul: $235,000
2009 Jan-Jul: $284,075 -17.3%
2007 Jan-Jul: $321,000 -26.8%

+ 76% or -27%?

yvr2zrh
Member
Why stop now. Some more thoughts. Thought I would bring in the poor cousin FVREB area. This area is a bit more homogenous with fewer outliers. So, accross the REBGV / FVREB area, here are the worst areas and the areas which are still relatively buoyant (OK the second part is not that long of a list). If we look at MOI as well as the ratio of Price Changes (reductions) to sales, the higher the numbers, the worse off. Since both of these are sales dependant, they are somewhat correlated. Note this is based solely on the last 2 weeks and thus over the month of August will not look as bad. This is SFH Weakest markets with (MOI / Price changes to sales) 1.) Squamish (40) (5.0) 2.) Port Moody (36) (4.5) 3.) West Vancouver (28) (3.2) 4.)… Read more »
VHB
Member
VHB

@ZRH2YVR: Good call on September sales–quite likely we get under 2008!

September		
year	sell	list	sell/list
2001	2155	3155	68.3%
2002	2476	3447	71.8%
2003	3357	4082	82.2%
2004	2853	4946	57.7%
2005	3344	4590	72.9%
2006	2519	5115	49.2%
2007	2776	4770	58.2%
2008	1585	6142	25.8%
2009	3559	5746	61.9%
2010	2220	4731	46.9%
2011	2246	5680	39.5%
Mean	2645	4764	55.5%
median	2519	4770	60.1%

Beating 2008 for listings though–that would be hard 6142 was seriously huge. Of course, that was what happened last time we had a low sales summer. It is possible that all that stuff pulled off the market ‘until the market improves’ may reappear in September.

If that happens, inventory should climb. I reiterate my call that we will get to 19K in September and 20K of total inventory by October.

McLovin
Guest
McLovin

Romeo Jordan:
“when the Nasdaq was 5,000+ i was very bearish”

When the Nasdaq was 5,000+ you were in a high chair watching Sesame Street.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Thanks ZRH2YVR that was an excellent analysis

yvr2zrh
Member
A couple more thoughts. I was so excited I guess to get that West Van stat out I completely forgot Van-West. Since someone requested it – I do follow White Rock – partly for family reasons. It’s the worst of the Fraser Valley but I don’t think we’re at 10 MOI yet. Also – You should all know I lived in San Jose from 1999-2001. It was crazy. At one point when the Nasdaq was collapsing (I remember the day where we lost 700 points in about 2 hours) it was tough on the youngest people there as they really thought it was not real. Some eery similarities to where we are here. My Secretary (I hope I can use that word) told me that this decrease (at 2,000 points) was temporary and that she had seen it all before.… Read more »
Used House Salesperson
Guest
Used House Salesperson

@Joe_blown_away: I cant see the comments on the globe and mail story about cmhc on iPad or pc. It says there are 45 comments but when you click on that it doesn’t load. But comments on other stories load.

I just found the same thing on a mac, I was curious to see what people are saying, but only that story won’t show the comments. Weird.

Can anyone see the comments on this story?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/jump-in-claims-pinches-cmhcs-insurance-business/article4507242/

GNFINGR
Guest
GNFINGR

@ZRH2YVR I would love your thoughts on Ladner/Tsawwassen if you have them. White Rock too but I don’t want to get greedy!

frank
Guest
frank

@Anonymous:

“@Vulture Fun: “Do you doubt that Helicopter Ben’s statement March 2007 statement that the subprime problem was “likely contained” convinced a few thousand first time buyers to take the plunge?”

Hilarious. Comparing the influence of the fed chairman the HPI.”

Actually they are both frauds IMVHO so the comparison is valid

Romeo Jordan
Guest
Romeo Jordan

somehow, i’m picking up the vibe that larry of yattermatters is not generating the kind of income he has previously, i’m sensing some anxiety….he seems like a decent chap, i don’t wish him ill, but my spider sense tells me all is not well…

Romeo Jordan
Guest
Romeo Jordan

East Van is a dump….you know what, my budget is around one mill and change and I’ve been watching east van thinking if things soften i could pick up a character place and get on with things….but zhr2 is right, much of it is a dump, and lots of it is marginal….fuck, a million and change to live where there are still lots of crack whores plying their trade simply is insane.

Great points. What do you make of SFH west side?

Romeo Jordan
Guest
Romeo Jordan
ZRH2 – fantastic analysis, thank you. Some of the best I’ve seen. Mike, you can calm down now, you big crybaby. Relax pansy. I’m only saying this to soothe your nerves, you wimp. ZRH2 – when the Nasdaq was 5,000+ i was very bearish. I thought it could fall to 3,500 or perhaps 3,000. Idiots/Mike’s told me I was nuts, there was no way, we were on our way to 10,000+. It went much worse than my most dire predictions. In light of the above, could your well reasoned expectations not be tame? Could we not get to “cheap” in terms of price to income and rents? This would mean raw price declines of over fifty percent. Idiots/Mike’s call this crazy, but what do you think the odds are of something this dramatic unfolding. Again, great analysis/thoughts, thank you.
Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

@patriotz: “Landcor gets the same data as Teranet and could (no doubt would) call them out on it if they were cooking the numbers.”

Exactly.

Turkey
Guest
Turkey
@ZRH2YVR: 4.) SFH Van-East. – An interesting market. I don’t want to get on East Van but you have to admit that much if it is a dump. Not all but there are pockets where there are houses where you could not imagine living but these places sell for 600,000. In any case, this was one of the last places in Vancouver were young people could buy a “House”. $600,000, you say? That’s my cue to show you the latest silliness from Strathcona. Three new townhouses (V966587, V966575, V966631) modestly named “Crawford Row” are “phase 1” of a 6-unit development. For $400k, $700k, or $750k, you get (respectively) 516 sq. ft, 1138 sq. ft, or 1195 sq. ft. Strata fees are $120, $280, or $290/mo, again respectively. “Just 10% down now, move in Summer 2013.” Do these prices fly so… Read more »
Joe_blown_away
Guest
Joe_blown_away

I cant see the comments on the globe and mail story about cmhc on iPad or pc. It says there are 45 comments but when you click on that it doesn’t load. But comments on other stories load. A conspiracy?

VHB
Member
VHB

@ZRH2YVR: Thank you for this. Please don’t move to Zurich! We need you here!!!!

Vulture Fun
Guest
Vulture Fun

@Clockbike: Don’t worry, the jump in claims is “likely contained”. http://muwhahaha.com/

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Vulture Fun: “Do you doubt that Helicopter Ben’s statement March 2007 statement that the subprime problem was “likely contained” convinced a few thousand first time buyers to take the plunge?”

Hilarious. Comparing the influence of the fed chairman the HPI.

AG Sage
Member

@Clockbike: Are the comments on that site broken or am I just getting blocked for some reason?

yvr2zrh
Member

Somehow I hit submit . . .

In summary. I can not find anything positive to say. Nothing. If you were in the industry – you can only try to just say positive things and say that it’s “Balanced” and prices are holding their own. However – – we are on the verge of either an immediate decrease of say 10% followed by a 2-3 year slow decline. Or, a longer drawn out decrease.

Ultimately, this market has no more that can prop it up higher before interest rates increase. Whether that is 2 years or 5 years, this market will be toast when rates increase even 1%.

yvr2zrh
Member
What a difference a year makes. As we get through to the last 2 days of August, we can pretty much see where the month will end and overall it’s not pretty. I have so many stats to summarize but here are some interesting highlights. 1.) SFH in West Vancouver will end the month with approx 1 sale per day. Down 50% from last month and down 70% from last year. MOI will now be over 20 and up from 5 last year. Inventory is near record at 530 units. 2.) Richmond SFH. July repeat. Same sales level, same inventory. I would say prices have to be down. MOI close to 20. The month had a blip in the first half with the first 10 sales days coming at 33 sales but the next 10 days being 21 sales. Quite… Read more »
crashcow
Member

@Clockbike: Ruh roh!
Remember when fannie/freddie were trading at $75 before pulling a wiley coyote to $2? CHMC, realizing it has just run off a cliff, is paused in the air with those innocent eyes. Sucks the taxpayer is the one taking the hit.