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Used House Salesperson
Guest
Used House Salesperson

@VHB: I though patriotz said he wasn’t freako?

real_professional
Member

Intuitively I am thinking that the trend in average home prices (which is now decidedly downward) is a leading indicator for the “true” price change of the real-estate market for which Teranet is the best measure. This is just a reasonable hunch – I would like to see the data.

In fact, I would like to see a chart tracking the Teranet HPI and average home sale prices.

Does anyone have long term average prices, better yet median prices, in excel format? If so can you post it in the forum?

VHB
Member
VHB

@VHB: whoops meant patriotz, but same diff.

VHB
Member
VHB

@patriotz: freako is right. The data you need to run the models in the methodology document are not easily accessible. If they posted the data *and* the methodology they would win gold in the transparency olympics. For posting a serious methodology document I’m willing to give them a bronze.

jesse
Member

@VMD: mohican’s the owner of the housing-analysis blog. He took over from VHB when VHB decided to stop blogging activities. VHB and I post there from time to time, and I’ve tried to carry on updating the graphs VHB produced on a semi-regular basis.

VHB
Member
VHB

@fixie guy: here is a measure of transparency, ‘hidden’ away on the rebgv website.

http://www.rebgv.org/mls%C2%AE-home-price-index-methodology

jesse
Member

@Vote Down The Facts: “People here just don’t like the HPI because it’s not giving the results they desire”

I don’t like it because it shrewdly sidesteps the issue about equal access to individual sales data that MLS so fiercely guards. I like it because it appears to be accurate.

patriotz
Member

@Vote Down The Facts:
” somebody with access to the sales data ”

It’s not just sales data per se, but the hedonic data which are used to compute the index. Which means that the “somebody” is the same party who computes the index in the first place. Only.

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo

Guessing 42 sales today; 184 new listings

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

@fixie guy:

“Peer review and transparency are core to scientific validity and the MLS HPI appears to lack both.”

That’s not entirely true. The methodology is public, and somebody with access to the sales data is welcome to choose their own subset of the data and run the model for themselves. It would be pretty clear if there were some fiddling going on.

People here just don’t like the HPI because it’s not giving the results they desire. Instead, the “average” seems to be flavor of the month here (whereas it wasn’t until it appeared to show a decline).

registered
Member
registered

@16 VHB Says: “I don’t buy the conspiracy theories… not because of dark conspiracies in smokey rooms.”

Dark conspiracies aren’t necessary, the flood of pro-market bias already coming from the industry’s ‘academics, economists and experts’ has been ridiculed here often. Film stages of the lunar landscape aren’t required to suspect the same organizations would optimize a closed data set to their benefit, intentional or not. Not that it matters. Peer review and transparency are core to scientific validity and the MLS HPI appears to lack both. Trust, not questioning, needs justification.

patriotz
Member

@gokou3:
Google that phrase (in quotes) and you’ll get a Canada-wide gallery of properties that are pretty obvious foreclosures. Not surprisingly the Okanagan and Alberta dominate. For the BC properties you can also go to BC Assessment and compare with the assessed value.

ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve

Just for fun, I think we’ll see sales of under 50 today. But what do I know….

gokou3
Guest
gokou3

@patriotz: Are you pretty sure it’s a foreclosure? I mean, I have only ever see such clauses for TD and not any other banks.

gokou3
Guest
gokou3

@Broken Clock: “Maybe someone should create a new index. The “not doing anything” bear index, to measure the lack of action being taken by bears.”

As Charlie Munger would say, activity doesn’t equal to productivity.

patriotz
Member

@Anonymous:
Everyone is always doing something with their money. People choose between consumption and investment, and between different things to consume and different things to invest in. All the time.

Deciding not to buy RE at current prices isn’t “not doing anything”.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Broken Clock:

We are doing something. We are reading this blog. Same as you I might add.

All the miney has been made in real estatte. It is ancient history now. Good luck on making money on real estate going forward unless you are a foreclosue lawyer.

Broken Clock
Guest
Broken Clock
@HAM Solo: You’re understanding of the real world is lacking. The purpose of an index is to reflect reality, not to drive it. Me driving the index one way or another doesn’t do anything. But I guess that’s what this blog is all about, “not doing anything”. While others are making money hand over fist in real estate the bears on this blog aren’t doing anything. Maybe someone should create a new index. The “not doing anything” bear index, to measure the lack of action being taken by bears. Because posts on the internet are useless and pointless. Maybe you guys should get a life? On the positive side, this blog, if printed out from beginning to end and streached out across the art gallery would make an interesting statement. Maybe the 10 year anniversary would be a good occasion.… Read more »
patriotz
Member

@gokou3:
” The vendor will not accept any offers to purchase from any individual that is an employee of the Toronto-Dominion Bank or any of its subsidiaries or affiliated corporations.”

Foreclosure. Now that’s an indicator of falling prices.

VMD
Member

@jesse:
been wanting to ask for a while, who’s Mohican?

UnagiDon
Guest
UnagiDon

@jesse: Outstanding, you are brilliant.

gokou3
Guest
gokou3
jesse
Member

@UnagiDon: Funny you should mention that. See my chart from my last comment. In terms of detached permits, things seem a bit, um, procyclical. I cannot make up these numbers.

jesse
Member
UnagiDon
Guest
UnagiDon

@jesse: Jesse, you posted an analysis showing no slowdown in housing permits:
http://housing-analysis.blogspot.ca/2012/08/city-of-vancouver-permit-update-for.html

Do you have any feelings on why we are seeing high listings, low sales, high MOI, but little effect on permits? Are permits a lagging indicator? Will construction only slow down once the crash is past the point of no return?