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ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve

@Clockbike:

WE ARE SCREWED!!!

That’s the nail in the coffin. ALREADY??? hahaha. How can 2nd quarter CMHC claims be up??? Wait until 3rd quarter results come out….. WoW

Clockbike
Member
Clockbike
VHB
Member
VHB
Aug-2012	
Total days	22
Days elapsed so far	20
Weekends / holidays	9
Days missing	0
Days remaining	2
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	70
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	160
SALES	
Sales so far	1545
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	141
Projected month end total	1686
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	3811
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	321
Projected month end total	4132
Sell-list so far	40.5%
Projected month-end sell-list	40.8%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of August 29, 2012	18907
Current MoI at this sales pace	11.22
dyugle
Guest
dyugle

Pigginton found that median price per square foot usually approximated Case-Shiller quite well.
http://piggington.com/july_2012_resale_data_rodeo
Why can’t they release that data?

Vulture Fun
Guest
Vulture Fun

@Anonymous: Yes, I think that spin has an impact, mostly because investigative journalism is dead in the MSM. Most articles about real estate are based on interviews with real estate agents or press releases from CREA. Most readers won’t read past the headlines. Do you doubt that Helicopter Ben’s statement March 2007 statement that the subprime problem was “likely contained” convinced a few thousand first time buyers to take the plunge?

I’m not worried about the bears being fooled by this BS. I’m worried about the guy at work who just bought his first condo but is constantly saying “We have no money.”

patriotz
Member

@Vote Down The Facts:
“Then what about Teranet?”

Landcor gets the same data as Teranet and could (no doubt would) call them out on it if they were cooking the numbers.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

@Vulture Fun: “Conflict of interest is why we shouldn’t trust Colin Powell when he shakes his little vial of yellowcake. It’s the reason the RCMP should not be allowed to investigate themselves. And it’s also why the HPI is suspect.”

Then what about Teranet?

oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2

@Anonymous: Damn! I forgot to sign in.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Vulture Fun: “And it’s also why the HPI is suspect.”

The big difference is manipulating the HPI would give the real estate industry little or no benefit. Do you think their spin actually has an impact? You give them way too much credit.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@VHB: “whoops meant patriotz, but same diff.”

You would think after all these years you would know the difference between Freako and Patriotz. Both are well educated and have a lot of knowledge about finance but they are obviously different people even to the casual observer.

jesse
Member

If people haven’t picked up the vibe yet, this is starting to get interesting. August was a make-or-break month for pulling out of a stall and it did not do this. If there was a strong likelihood of a fall rebound a la 2010 it would have meant much stronger August sales.

September through December are usually weaker than the summer with a few exceptions. Things are not looking good for fall sales.

I’m dusting off some of the old 2008 price drop graphs that were put into hibernation. Just in case. And I’ve been wrong before so don’t get your hopes up.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Vote Down The Facts:

Has anybody actually tried asking them for the data? Surely they should be able to provide it in anonymized form?

Yes. And no.

I then asked if they were willing to at least provide parameter estimates, with accompanying standard errors, of the dozens of regression equations that they use to stitch together the HPI. My interlocutor politely declined insisting that this would require a “change in policy” at management levels.

Vulture Fun
Guest
Vulture Fun

@Vote Down The Facts: Conflict of interest is why we shouldn’t trust Colin Powell when he shakes his little vial of yellowcake. It’s the reason the RCMP should not be allowed to investigate themselves. And it’s also why the HPI is suspect.

jesse
Member

@Anonymous: “Wrong. Demand is what matters.”

Nope. Platitudes usually get voted down.

jesse
Member
@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs: “It simply means the inability to scrutinize the data undercuts the public legitimacy of the HPI.” It’s possible to scrutinize the index by having the system peer reviewed and validated. It need not mean the index is incorrect, it means you rely on a third party to qualify it just like an auditor would not release confidential information. There are two issues, one is getting MLS data into the public domain like the US, the other is whether their HPI is being rigged. I actually don’t care whether or not the HPI is rigged because I have ways of telling whether it is by comparing to other measures. In any case it does not factor one iota into my buy/nobuy decision because it tells me relatively little about a specific property for sale. If people want to believe that… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@fixie guy: Double up on the foil. You will see things more clearly.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@jesse: “The data tell a different story. If you want best indication of where prices are headed in the short term, months of inventory and sell/list provide strong leading indicators. Supply/demand leads, prices lag.”

Wrong. Demand is what matters.

paulb
Member

New Listings 133
Price Changes 87
Sold Listings 71
TI:18907

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
Guest
Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
@Vote Down the Facts I wasn’t wading into the HPI debate. I simply remarked that I appreciate the wisdom of fixie guy’s statement, “Trust, not questioning, needs justification.” I don’t know whether the HPI is fixed or not. I know that Garth Turner has called it a “frankenumber”. Maybe the problem with the HPI is that it is not something easily understood. It lacks legitimacy among the public precisely because the data that is behind it is kept hidden. This doesn’t necessarily mean there is a deliberate conspiracy or that the HPI is rigged. It simply means the inability to scrutinize the data undercuts the public legitimacy of the HPI. Rather than the HPI, I would prefer to consider median prices. Everybody with even the most rudimentary understanding of statistics can understand what the median is. And yes, the mls… Read more »
Bally
Guest
Bally

@Vote Down The Facts:

My proprietary House Price Index shows a 4% decline month-on-month and a 14% decline year-on-year. You can’t have access to the data & if I feel like it I’ll revise the way I calculate my HPI. If you don’t believe me it is up to you to prove me wrong.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

@Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs:

There’s nothing wrong with questioning. But if somebody wants to claim that the MLS HPI is being fixed, then the burden of proof is on them. No evidence has so far been presented – only a general dislike of the data being considered proprietary, and some sort of misunderstanding that the index (of all dwelling types) should be showing a 14% drop (the *average* price drop of SFH)

patriotz
Member

@Vote Down The Facts:
” Surely they should be able to provide it in anonymized form? ”

The hedonic data by its very nature leads to identifiability of the property. I’m sure any web programmer could capture the MLS listings, and then given the sale prices and hedonics could match them up with better than 90% success rate.

Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs
Guest
Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs

fixie guy said: “Trust, not questioning, needs justification.”

That’s a brilliant statement. I am always accused of being a conspiracy theorist simply because I am skeptical/critical of the media and various authorities. But really it should be those people who have blind faith that everything we’re being fed is the golden truth that should be on the defensive. Questioning authoritative versions of events is essential for both science and democracy.

real_professional
Member

@Vote Down The Facts

Even the averages? One wouldn’t be able to reconstruct the MLS index if they just average or median prices. You would need complete transactional data.

Teranet is great – go to their website and download! done.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

@VHB: “The data you need to run the models in the methodology document are not easily accessible. If they posted the data *and* the methodology they would win gold in the transparency olympics. For posting a serious methodology document I’m willing to give them a bronze.”

Has anybody actually tried asking them for the data? Surely they should be able to provide it in anonymized form?