Summer sales fail on a streak

According to Paulb tuesday saw only 66 properties sold in Vancouver.

VHB says that makes a record 11 days in a row with double digit sales.

We haven’t broken more than 100 sales in a day for more than two weeks.

As VHB points out:

I have PaulB’s daily numbers for 2010 to now. The current streak of 11 straight double digit sales days is now a record.

You might think you could see this kind of streak in December or January. But August? This is nutty low sales.

Yesterday was Wednesday and we saw 71 sales.  That means we’re now on the 12th day of an unbroken chain.

Even if this record holds up through the end of the month it will likely be broken on Tuesday as sales made over the long weekend will add two days into one.

But what we also might expect to see next week is a flood of listings.  Here’s VHB again:

In past years, the September listings surge begins precisely on the Tuesday right after Labour Day. Last year, we had 356 listings on that Tuesday. In 2010, it was 282.

So, it would be a surprise if there are fewer than 1000 new listings hitting the books during the four days next week. Good chance to get over 1200.

And finally ZRH2YVR left a wrap up of what this market is looking like in a few select areas. We’re approaching a MOI of 20 (!) in some areas:

1.) SFH in West Vancouver will end the month with approx 1 sale per day. Down 50% from last month and down 70% from last year. MOI will now be over 20 and up from 5 last year. Inventory is near record at 530 units.

2.) Richmond SFH. July repeat. Same sales level, same inventory. I would say prices have to be down. MOI close to 20. The month had a blip in the first half with the first 10 sales days coming at 33 sales but the next 10 days being 21 sales. Quite a different second half.

3.) Van-West Attached (Appartment/Townhouse). This is a big big market so it’s tough to have it stop completely. It is the centre of the uninformed buyer especially young people with parents money. This month will be 15% below last month, 30% below last year and pretty much on par with 2008. Many sources have indicated prices are down but maybe about 5%. So many units are available. MOI in this large market will end the month close to 9, up from 5 last year and 8 last month. The sales pace in first 10 days and second 10 days were constant.

Read his full comment for the low down on other areas including East Van, North Van and Burnaby.

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ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve

Good posts from ZRH2YVR and VHB. These two guys are assets to this site. Appreciate it guys!

VMD
Member

(repost from end of last thread)
Question:
in July 2012, Whistler Apartment HPI shows
3 year change of +78.4%
5 year change of +76.3%

Now look at Whistler Apartment Median price:
2012 Jan-Jul: $235,000
2009 Jan-Jul: $284,075 -17.3%
2007 Jan-Jul: $321,000 -26.8%
+ 76% or -27%? (it’s a 103% difference!)

poppycock
Guest
poppycock

My favorite thing about VHB is how he pops up whenever rhe market looks soft, makes a bunch of predictions, pronouncents, and pontifications only to crawl back under his rock – tail between his legs – when he is once again proven wrong.

But this time is different, right guys?

jesse
Member

Some good sub-market data from ZRH. The dropoff in sales the second half of August is not a good harbinger for the fall.

VHB is like Obi-Wan Kenobi. The VHB blog may be dead but the spirit of VHB lives on, and talks to us at plot-critical moments with proper grammar.

On an unrelated note, the changes to EI claims the government announced are now being implemented. More grants/claims are being denied by extending the scope of equivalent work. The government is turning the screws.

patriotz
Member

Demand for condos supported by demographics

But I guess they can’t talk about rents.

TORONTO – A new condo report suggests first-time buyers, retirees and population growth will continue to fuel demand and price growth for the compact living spaces over the next few years.

The study by Genworth Canada found that average condo resale prices are expected to rise next year in seven of the eight metropolitan centres studied.

Well there’s an impartial source for you.

RFM
Guest
RFM
This small development is an interesting case study and a cautionary tale about the reality of the Vancouver real-estate market: In the first quarter of 2012 a five-unit strata development (called, according to the on-site sign, ‘Strathcona Gateway’) was completed from assembled lots at the southeast corner of Gore Avenue and Union Street in Strathcona in Vancouver East. The five detached townhouses have ‘heritage’ architectural elements with a shared 4-car garage (parking pad for 312 Union) without storage. Floor plans available on various websites show very small rooms but an open kitchen arrangement. I have not toured these properties, but the interior photos appear to show standard construction. The situs is the southeast corner of Gore Avenue and Union Street. Gore Avenue is moderately busy; Union Street is lightly traveled and is a major bike route from the east to… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

“We haven’t broken more than 100 sales in a day for more than two weeks.”

I hope everyone realizes the posted sales each day are not actual sales for that day but various sales from previous weeks just getting posted that day. The significance of a certain number on any give day is low. It is significant when you look at the 2 week period of sales though which are very low. Just saying.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
@RFM: ‘Strathcona Gateway’ I would rate this a C- location. Strathcona has big potential for gentrification in the future. When the hospital finally gets started the area will change for the better significantly. There will be densification and it may turn into a nice place to live which is close to downtown. Right now the place is a dirt hole and I barely want to drive by it little lone live there. Those strata units get the head lights right in their windows of every car leaving downtown over the via duct. Prior street will only get busier if the via duct plan goes through. And why bother with a strata when you can buy a house for similar money (although not as new). Those places will never sell for their asking price. I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends… Read more »
Islander
Guest
Islander

@Anonymous:

Yes but the daily sales are still relevant. Even though the sales everyday are a collection Of properties that are Sold with varying dates such as 2 months ago or 2 days ago, you could make the daily sales refer to a specific date by figuring out the average time it takes for a house to become officially sold. August numbers are not really August numbers. They may be half August a d half July.

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Guest
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
“Strathcona has big potential for gentrification in the future.” Being a slum area with lots of poor people and drug addicted people and run-down hotels, yes, it is true that there is great POTENTIAL for gentrification in Strathcona/DTES. You can’t gentrify an area that’s already rich. So the potential for gentrification is there in the DTES. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that Strathcona/DTES WILL gentrify. UBC Geographer David Ley xwrote a paper a few years back showing that the DTES has been very resistant to gentrification over the past 30 years. While West Side areas like Kits, 4th Ave, and East side areas like Commercial and Main have all gentrified, the DTES has not gentrified to the extent one would have expected over the past 3 decades. Ley attributes this to the strength of the social service organizations/advocacy groups that… Read more »
oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2

@patriotz: Interesting…I found this related report just the other day.

TORONTO – A new automobile report suggests first-time buyers, retirees and population growth will continue to fuel demand and price growth for used cars over the next few years.

The study by Luigi’s Used Car Emporium found that average used car prices are expected to rise next year in seven of the eight metropolitan centres studied. “Would I lie about something like this”, Luigi was quoted as saying before handing over the keys to a 1984 Pontiac Sunbird to an excited Maple Ridge resident.

patriotz
Member

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs:
“The only anti-poverty activists we have are the ones in the DTES who are so focused on the drug aspect of poverty.”

Oh come on off it. The whole Left (that is, the NDP and trade union movement) is anti-mainstream poverty pretty much by definition, and churches also have a lot of people who work against mainstream poverty.

The reason the government keeps the druggies in the DTES is not because of pressure from the activists, who they don’t give a rat’s ass about, but because the other parts of town, which determine the outcome of elections, don’t want them.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: “So I wouldn’t bank on the DTES ever fully gentrifying. The activists there are just too strong.”

That is true, there is an industry which wants to maintain what the DTES is today. It will never look like the Westside. My guess is it will look more like Commercial Dive which is still pretty sketchy. The hospital will be the game changer IMO. At some point we will get a right wing council and that may speed things up as well. In any event all of the COV political campaigns (left and right) are supported by developers. Don’t count out their influence.

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Guest
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
“Oh come on off it. The whole Left (that is, the NDP and trade union movement) is anti-mainstream poverty pretty much by definition, and churches also have a lot of people who work against mainstream poverty.” I disagree. That’s why I am a contrarian within the NDP. I am sometimes called a conservative by other NDPers for my views–that we should be doing everything we can to help working class people who were born here as opposed to pandering to immigrants and drug addicts. But it’s not the NDP who are running the show right now. It’s the BC Liberals. If you look at their social housing policies, you cannot deny that they are almost entirely focused on supportive housing for drug addicts and the mentally ill. They are not building any new social housing for people who are not… Read more »
Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

The TD Bank hater strikes again. Eight price reductions on a Burnaby sub-penthouse that appears to have never been occupied since it was built in 2009.

http://byron.livefraservalley.ca/homes/9888-Cameron-Street/Burnaby/BC/V3J%200A4/19221437/?index=98

“The vendor will not accept any offers to purchase from any individual that is an employee of the Toronto-Dominion Bank or any of its subsidiaries or affiliated corporations.”

UnagiDon
Guest
UnagiDon

@RFM: The main advantage of Strathcona is its potential for mortgage helpers: instead of renting out the basement with a year-long lease, you can rent it out by the hour.

AnonAnon
Guest
AnonAnon

@Anonymous:

What’s wrong with Commercial Drive? It’s a great neighborhood that still retains its character. Its a safe, fun and vibrant.

It would be fantastic for Vancouver if DTES become another Commercial drive. We need more neighborhoods of character in the city. There’s so few of them outside of Downtown, Kitsilano, Commercial, and Kerrisdale. Everything else is just bland.

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Guest
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Patriotz: “The reason the government keeps the druggies in the DTES is not because of pressure from the activists, who they don’t give a rat’s ass about, but because the other parts of town, which determine the outcome of elections, don’t want them.” I think there is some truth in that at the city council level. But the govt could still keep the addicts in the DTES without building supportive housing for them. Also, the new supportive housing being built for drug addicts is not entirely within the DTES. There is one new supportive housing facility being built at17th and Arbutus–the heart of west side NIMBY-ville. But the group that this facility is targeted to is drug addicts, a large portion of which come from the DTES. Supportive housing for drug addicts is a DTES priority and it has drowned… Read more »
jesse
Member

@Anonymous: “Strathcona has big potential for gentrification in the future.”

I agree it has great potential. So did I.

Many Franks
Guest
Active Member
Many Franks
@Anonymous: “Little lone”? First time I’ve heard that one. Yes, those units are badly situated and horribly overpriced. However, I disagree with the way you’re characterizing Strathcona in general (and more broadly with some of the other posters here calling East Van a dump). Strathcona is up there with Commercial Drive and Main Street as one of the few Vancouver neighbourhoods I prefer to live in. Check out the Culture Crawl this November and you’ll probably see why. East Van is not only desirable as a crappier-but-more-affordable or hopefully-gentrifying-investment-potential neighbourhood. Parts of it are genuinely great to live in, even compared to much more expensive areas. As for Prior Street, it’s not a foregone conclusion that the viaduct plans will increase traffic. I can’t find a reference at the moment but OTOH the city has stated that Prior is currently… Read more »
Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

@patriotz: “The reason the government keeps the druggies in the DTES is not because of pressure from the activists, who they don’t give a rat’s ass about, but because the other parts of town, which determine the outcome of elections, don’t want them.”

On that criteria they’re definitely failing. The junkies are all over downtown. The recent facelift of Granville St has served only to provide more square footage for zombies and pan-handlers. And Yaletown now has a few resident bums of its own, it seems. Sure, the problem is concentrated in the DTES but its influence extends far beyond that neighbourhood.

Broken Clock
Guest
Broken Clock

11 days of low sales!! The market is going to crash any day now!! I can feel it in my bones!! Any day now… just sitting here waiting… for 6 long years… for the market….. to crash….. any day now…..

groundhog
Guest
groundhog

@Broken Clock

You obviously know very little or nothing about markets then. Read some books or do some research on the internet.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@poppycock: #3,
vhb has been warmed and confortable in in his house long ago already. he is trying to lend his shoulders for the others to cry on.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!
I’m not familiar with Strathcona. Is there a lot of social housing there? When we talk about gentrification, social housing is an important factor. A lot of social housing puts a cap on gentrefication. The reason social housing puts a cap on gentrefication is because certain classes of buyers are repulced by it. Social housing means poor families. Poor familes mean poor kids. And poor kids mean bad schools. In general this is true. And families that want to buy a home want good schools. So, neighbourhoods with social housing don’t attract the key demographic which will push up real estate prices, families. Instead they attract renting singles and counter culture types, who won’t be sending their kids to school or don’t have money. Compare and contrast comercial drive versus main and 12th area, for example. Despite the decades long… Read more »
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