Summer sales fail on a streak

According to Paulb tuesday saw only 66 properties sold in Vancouver.

VHB says that makes a record 11 days in a row with double digit sales.

We haven’t broken more than 100 sales in a day for more than two weeks.

As VHB points out:

I have PaulB’s daily numbers for 2010 to now. The current streak of 11 straight double digit sales days is now a record.

You might think you could see this kind of streak in December or January. But August? This is nutty low sales.

Yesterday was Wednesday and we saw 71 sales.  That means we’re now on the 12th day of an unbroken chain.

Even if this record holds up through the end of the month it will likely be broken on Tuesday as sales made over the long weekend will add two days into one.

But what we also might expect to see next week is a flood of listings.  Here’s VHB again:

In past years, the September listings surge begins precisely on the Tuesday right after Labour Day. Last year, we had 356 listings on that Tuesday. In 2010, it was 282.

So, it would be a surprise if there are fewer than 1000 new listings hitting the books during the four days next week. Good chance to get over 1200.

And finally ZRH2YVR left a wrap up of what this market is looking like in a few select areas. We’re approaching a MOI of 20 (!) in some areas:

1.) SFH in West Vancouver will end the month with approx 1 sale per day. Down 50% from last month and down 70% from last year. MOI will now be over 20 and up from 5 last year. Inventory is near record at 530 units.

2.) Richmond SFH. July repeat. Same sales level, same inventory. I would say prices have to be down. MOI close to 20. The month had a blip in the first half with the first 10 sales days coming at 33 sales but the next 10 days being 21 sales. Quite a different second half.

3.) Van-West Attached (Appartment/Townhouse). This is a big big market so it’s tough to have it stop completely. It is the centre of the uninformed buyer especially young people with parents money. This month will be 15% below last month, 30% below last year and pretty much on par with 2008. Many sources have indicated prices are down but maybe about 5%. So many units are available. MOI in this large market will end the month close to 9, up from 5 last year and 8 last month. The sales pace in first 10 days and second 10 days were constant.

Read his full comment for the low down on other areas including East Van, North Van and Burnaby.

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Dan in Calgary
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Dan in Calgary

@fixie guy 104: I don’t think we can be friends any more.

registered
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registered

97 Dan in Calgary Says: “In all sincerity fixie guy, I don’t know for sure what your point is, but I think you’re defending tax-paying wannabe (you left out this key word) hipsters with REITs as model citizens …”

Pro tip in all sincerity: self modding obvious and blatant fabrications gives away the game.

Dan in Calgary
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Dan in Calgary

Definition: Contrarian = Troll?
Starting to wonder …

Epte
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Epte

Jesse, thanks so much for this information and suggestion!

I have been involved in trying to get a petition drive going that would itemize various aspects of the RE craziness here that might actually be addressed by City Council and help affordability. I’ve also written and phoned City Councillors, MPs, the CMHC, and others.

I’ll definitely consider drafting a letter about opening up the MLS. Anybody else who reads these blogs (VREAA and VCI), I hope you’ll consider speaking up too, or providing suggestions on the blogs for what might be said in such a letter.

jesse
Member

@Epte: If you want MLS opened up, there is an active campaign to do just that. A letter to your MP highlighting your concerns, with a cc to the competition bureau, is exactly the type of fodder they need to make their case for open markets.

And I know you are a great writer so if you do write the letter please feel free to copy it here for us to read.

Ain’t nothing like a good old-fashioned letter writing campaign 🙂

Epte
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Epte

“Previous sales information can be obtained from the land title office for a small fee.”

@Patriotz:
“BC Online will divulge the whole title for any property for around $20.”

Thanks very much for this info, Patriotz.

Priceless! Yet another fee!

So City Hall makes money off Vancouverites because the realty industry here conceals vital statistics from consumers?

When I relayed the one realtor’s comment about how “we don’t give information like this out to strangers over the phone,” my husband remarked on how Vancouver practically sells multimillion dollar properties over the phone to strangers — and, I might add, to local speckers whose capacities to pay for these properties may not, for all anyone knows, eventually much exceed their capacities for paying City Hall a small fee to find out the last selling price for their mansions.

registered
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registered

@95 Many Franks: Flaherty began applying the brakes to his loose mortgage policies a long time ago. Here’s an article from Jan 2011:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/01/17/flaherty-mortgage-changes.html

The only new aspect is the rate at which he’s making changes. It should be no shock to anyone the markets were slowing before the latest round.

Dan in Calgary
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Dan in Calgary

@Broken Clock, “The market is going to crash any day now!! I can feel it in my bones!! Any day now… just sitting here waiting… for 6 long years… for the market….. to crash….. any day now…..”

Sorry dude, you’ve got it all wrong … in all honesty, I’ve been waiting 10 years. The bad news in all this is that someone likely made a decision to sell their condo based in part on my bad advice to them. In a nutshell, I told them “The sky is falling … the sky is falling … the sky is falling” and they believed me.

We’re all such fools.

Dan in Calgary
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Dan in Calgary
@fixie guy, “Apparently stereotyping and resentment. Needle drops and rampant property crime are preferable to wage earning, tax paying ‘hipsters with REITs’? You’ll love Detroit.” In all sincerity fixie guy, I don’t know for sure what your point is, but I think you’re defending tax-paying wannabe (you left out this key word) hipsters with REITs as model citizens while stereotyping people who live in about-to-be-gentrified neighbourhoods as sub-human, and all this while simultaneously summing up anyone who thinks there may be something amiss as being consumed with resentment. Nice word-crafting. Did I get it right? Or did I miss something? My post may have had an edge to it, but it’s still a good question, possibly one that academic social planner types are wondering about. Maybe we should be too. btw, are you related to one of Alberta’s former Premiers?
patriotz
Member

@Many Franks:
All bubbles eventually come to an end without a change in parameters such as lending availability because they run out of buyers. That’s what has clearly happened in Alberta and all of BC outside of Vancouver, and there’s a case to be made the turn was already happening in Vancouver when the changes were made.

In any case the changes were put in to put the squeeze on the Toronto bubble which still appeared to be growing.

Many Franks
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Active Member
Many Franks

@fixie guy: First part no, second part yes. See e.g.: http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.ca/2012/06/vancouver-market-was-in-trouble-before.html

“Flaherty sunk the market with the return to 25-year max amorts” risks becoming a dominant narrative. Things were already looking a little green around the edges before he made that change.

registered
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registered

@90 JB Says: “Let´s see how would Flaherty´s mortgage adjustments add to the price corrections.”

Adding to it? Flaherty’s removal of fun money from the market is the primary cause, just as Flaherty’s injection of fun money was the primary cause of 2006’s wildly accelerated run-up.

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
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joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
On the Tsawwassen First Nation mega-mall: This development absolutely disgusts me too. 1.) Traffic concerns: The George Massey Tunnel is already full. The tunnel is one of the worst traffic bottlenecks in the Lower Mainland. It will probably be THE worst traffic once the new Port Mann Bridge is finished. So how are people going to get to this mall and the 1900 units of housing to be built there? Expanding Canada Line south to Ladner would help. It would mean all the buses that currently go through the tunnel wouldn’t be going through the tunnel anymore because they would terminate at Ladner and people would get off the bus and transfer onto Canada Line at Ladner instead of at Bridgeport in Richmond, where they currently transfer. But there’s simply no money for an expansion of the Canada Line. Richmond… Read more »
pricedoutfornow
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pricedoutfornow

Just came back from travelling in the US. My cousin has just completed renovations on a condo in Miami-I guess prices there are now going up! Lucky her, she may do ok with this investment (good timing). Of course when I talk to her about real estate in Vancouver, she gets a look of real pity on her face-as an American who’s been through a bubble, they can recognize all the signs: overexuberance, denial, etc etc. Poor Canada! she says, and shakes her head. Americans know what’s coming for us (and it seems to be coming more obvious every day, doesn’t it?).

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

@local observer: Very good points. Forcing all the mentally ill into the worst neighbourhoods probably isn’t good for them.

Every homemoaner in Vancouver thinks their area is prime and is going to raise a NIMBY fuss the moment anything that isn’t expensive housing is built next to them. Even in the armpit of Tricities, a homeless shelter (3030 Gordon Ave) was violently opposed by local mortgage-slaves. Thankfully, the shelter is being built.

JB
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JB

I think it was highly expected. I just follow Vancouver Price Drop and watch it go. Also the numbers from the Second quarter are talking for itself. Let´s see how would Flaherty´s mortgage adjustments add to the price corrections.

patriotz
Member

@Epte:
” it’s apparently impossible for anyone to divulge what it sold for last year.”

BC Online will divulge the whole title for any property for around $20.

Epte
Guest
Epte

Thanks very much, dosouth!

The listing realtor for this property (2828 West 43rd) volunteered an explanation as to why the house was being re-sold in a year. Quote: “Last year it was bought by a family from China and some of them went back. The house is too big for the rest of them, very expensive [to maintain].”

dosouth
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dosouth

@Epte: assessed value is $3,007,000 but no sales info for 2011

gordholio
Member

This Tsawwassen “mega mall” makes me want to puke. I don’t know if any of you have been there, but it’s one of the few untouched large spaces left in the Best Development on Earth. Biking out there is great – no buildings or trees to block what little sun we have, very few people, just open prairie. Tons of birds flying around, eating and living. It’s just a wonderful place.

Goddam it…there’s so little of this sort of thing left, especially in the western lower mainland. And now, a “mega mall.”

Brutal, just brutal.

And while I’m at it, f*** Cameron Muir. “But that doesn’t mean the price of a typical home will drop”? You lying, word-twisting sack of shit.

N
Guest
N

Well, that takes the guessing out of it anyway. 7.8%

“The average price of homes sold in B.C. is forecast to fall 7.8 per cent this year, but that doesn’t mean the price of a typical home will drop, the B.C. Real Estate Association’s chief economist Cameron Muir said Thursday.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/home+prices+cent+economist/7170668/story.html

Conrad
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Conrad

Another bullish day for listings! read it and weep!

Bo Xilai
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Bo Xilai

Looks like Melbourne, Australia’s RE market is getting a kick in the head…

Melbourne Hasn’t Seen Worst of Housing Drop as Glut Builds

http://bloom.bg/TzmFNG

Epte
Guest
Epte
Speaking of sales fails: I’m curious about a couple of things and wondered if anyone can help. 1). There’s a big newer build at 2828 West 43rd that was sold last year. Now it’s on the market for $3,658,000. In the grand tradition of openness that distinguishes Vancouver realty, it’s apparently impossible for anyone to divulge what it sold for last year. Does anyone know a way to look up previous sale prices? Telling a realtor that this information is freely available in the United States, for example, brought two responses: “We’re not in the United States” (oops!); and “This is information we don’t just give out to strangers over the phone.” 2). I have noticed another curious phenomenon: houses (new build) that are listed as “Sold” but into which nobody seems to move. Of course it’s possible some new… Read more »
Bo Xilai
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Bo Xilai

@Chabar:

“I often go there to shop Italian delis”…

Go to Bosa’s in Burnaby, off Boundary & First.. Free Parking and no 30 minute lineups… No skeezers on the sidewalk outside either…