Summer sales fail on a streak

According to Paulb tuesday saw only 66 properties sold in Vancouver.

VHB says that makes a record 11 days in a row with double digit sales.

We haven’t broken more than 100 sales in a day for more than two weeks.

As VHB points out:

I have PaulB’s daily numbers for 2010 to now. The current streak of 11 straight double digit sales days is now a record.

You might think you could see this kind of streak in December or January. But August? This is nutty low sales.

Yesterday was Wednesday and we saw 71 sales.  That means we’re now on the 12th day of an unbroken chain.

Even if this record holds up through the end of the month it will likely be broken on Tuesday as sales made over the long weekend will add two days into one.

But what we also might expect to see next week is a flood of listings.  Here’s VHB again:

In past years, the September listings surge begins precisely on the Tuesday right after Labour Day. Last year, we had 356 listings on that Tuesday. In 2010, it was 282.

So, it would be a surprise if there are fewer than 1000 new listings hitting the books during the four days next week. Good chance to get over 1200.

And finally ZRH2YVR left a wrap up of what this market is looking like in a few select areas. We’re approaching a MOI of 20 (!) in some areas:

1.) SFH in West Vancouver will end the month with approx 1 sale per day. Down 50% from last month and down 70% from last year. MOI will now be over 20 and up from 5 last year. Inventory is near record at 530 units.

2.) Richmond SFH. July repeat. Same sales level, same inventory. I would say prices have to be down. MOI close to 20. The month had a blip in the first half with the first 10 sales days coming at 33 sales but the next 10 days being 21 sales. Quite a different second half.

3.) Van-West Attached (Appartment/Townhouse). This is a big big market so it’s tough to have it stop completely. It is the centre of the uninformed buyer especially young people with parents money. This month will be 15% below last month, 30% below last year and pretty much on par with 2008. Many sources have indicated prices are down but maybe about 5%. So many units are available. MOI in this large market will end the month close to 9, up from 5 last year and 8 last month. The sales pace in first 10 days and second 10 days were constant.

Read his full comment for the low down on other areas including East Van, North Van and Burnaby.

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Chabar
Guest
Chabar

@Anonymous:

Very true, I don’t get it when people call it vibrant and funky neighborhood. I often go there to shop Italian delis, cheese and local fruit but that’s about it. To go there for a dinner or nite-out rather not.

VHB
Member
VHB
Total days	22
Days elapsed so far	21
Weekends / holidays	9
Days missing	0
Days remaining	1
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	69
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	155
SALES	
Sales so far	1608
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	69
Projected month end total	1677
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	3939
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	155
Projected month end total	4094
Sell-list so far	40.8%
Projected month-end sell-list	41.0%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of August 30, 2012	18899
Current MoI at this sales pace	11.27
paulb
Member

New Listings 128
Price Changes 78
Sold Listings 63

TI: 18899

http://www.paulboenisch.com

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow

@Patiently Waiting:

Vancouver price drop has another one of these “TD haters”-there must be some legal reason for it-on river rd in Richmond. Odd.

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo

Guess for the day… 58 sales, 165 new listings

HipsterBear
Guest
HipsterBear

@AG Sage was running the numbers before it was cool. You sure I can’t interest you in a retro tinfoil hat?

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

@Romeo Jordan: “OK, you must be good at learning.”

Perhaps you need to learn the difference between “your” and “you’re” before insulting the intelligence of others?

Papa Jones
Guest
Papa Jones

Anonymous Says:
“all I see a bunch of people who looked stoned, unemployed and haven’t showered in a few days. I prefer a different crowd I guess.”

you would fit well with hospice hating crowd at UBC

Romeo Jordan
Guest
Romeo Jordan

MOI – I could see high teens by year end, and perhaps no slowdown in listings as we head into the new year. The words “Vancouver housing market” could become toxic. “Buy not or be priced out forever” may become a crime to utter, before this is done, given how many families are going to be bankrupted by what is now in the early stages of unfolding.

Somebody buy Mikey some Depends…..

Bo Xilai
Guest
Bo Xilai

@Anonymous:

“The idea is it is a destination shopping mall.”

I’m sure all the people from Surrey and White Rock will flock to this new “destination” mall instead of driving to Bellingham or Seattle Premium Outlets…

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Patiently Waiting: “Its a bit much to call those “prime” areas. I mean its still Main Street, regardless if there’s overpriced shoeboxes nearby.”

I was laughing at that one too. I guess the real estate marketing machine is working. My favorite is Whalley is the new Yaletown.

Romeo Jordan
Guest
Romeo Jordan

Mike,

Your a Professional Engineer? Why didn’t you say that in the first place! OK, you must be good at learning. Go look up how simple averages are calculated, and what median, mean and mode mean. Then perhaps you can sleep at night without shitting the bed when you toss and turn.

Enjoy the show, I truly think that the meltdown will be worse than most of us bears currently foresee.

Chillax Mike, your on the right bus.

local observer
Guest
local observer

The supportive housing built at 7th and Fir (on my daily route to Granville Island) is for the “hard to house” and is managed by the Mental Patients Association. It is a very nice building and I think the belief is that it is every neighbourhoods’ duty to accept all Canadians. If the downtrodden are accepted into every corner of the city we wouldn’t have the DTES to contend with. The individuals that live at 7th & Fir are no more unsettling to the area than the condo dwellers.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

@patriotz: Very interesting. Eight months and eight price reductions later, and the bank still can’t find market price 😛

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

@VMD: “Following RBC & TD, National Bank is dropping the max LTV of its All-in-One LOC to 65%, effective Sept 4”

They (along with all other banks) had to make such a change prior to Oct 31st, under the new OFSI rules.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

@Tacky Tocker: Its a bit much to call those “prime” areas. I mean its still Main Street, regardless if there’s overpriced shoeboxes nearby.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

@Tacky Tocker: “Why why why does the COV build these in prime areas? ”

To prevent ghettoization.

AG Sage
Member

@s: They won’t hit their limit I don’t think. The portfolio only grew 1% year on year. $60 billion+ is freed up a year through pay offs, that’s $500 million a month in new policies just from churn.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@AnonAnon: “What’s wrong with Commercial Drive? It’s a great neighborhood that still retains its character. Its a safe, fun and vibrant.”

All of those things are true but when I walk down Commercial Drive all I see a bunch of people who looked stoned, unemployed and haven’t showered in a few days. I prefer a different crowd I guess.

Tacky Tocker
Guest
Tacky Tocker

RE Social-Supportive Houseing

3 New towers 2 just completed one on Main Street next to Burger Queen and soon to be next to Mechanica

the 2nd is on Fir Street and 8th Ave just south of Earls on Broadway

the 3rd tower is in construction on west 2nd ave just next to the upcoming West condo development.

Can’t imagine buying next to one of these crime towers

Why why why does the COV build these in prime areas? Hell they all have Ocean views!

Sillyness

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Many Franks: “Strathcona in general (and more broadly with some of the other posters here calling East Van a dump). Strathcona is up there with Commercial Drive and Main Street as one of the few Vancouver neighbourhoods I prefer to live in.”

Yes nothing better than the used needles and condoms at your door step, the emaciated drug attics wandering around aimlessly and the rattle of shopping carts down the ally. Pure Vancouver heaven.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@LazyCanadian: “Tsawwassen has a hard enough time keeping its current mall afloat”

The idea is it is a destination shopping mall. People will travel from all over to go there. Good luck with that. No public transit and the only place that is reasonably close outside of Delta is Richmond and then you still have the tunnel which is very difficult to get through at times. It sounds like a failure in the making to me. Those Granny’s in Tswwassen only need to much stuff.

LazyCanadian
Guest
LazyCanadian

Apparently there is a huge development being planned by the Tsawwassen First Nation. Tsawwassen has a hard enough time keeping its current mall afloat let alone “a 1.8-million-square-foot mall complex that would be the single-largest retail shopping destination in British Columbia.” I don’t see this turning out well.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Tsawwassen+plan+lacks+sewage+capacity/7163844/story.html

s
Guest
s

Garth says the CHMC is approaching it’s limit of $600 Billion currently sitting at $580 Billion is that correct?

patriotz
Member

@jerkasaurus:
Because it would give the appearance of not attempting to get fair market value for the property and give grounds for CMHC to try to disallow the insurance payout and/or the former owner to sue them.