Team Ben! Ben is wrong!

Real estate markets move slowly.

Really slowly.

So let’s entertain ourselves with some bear fights.

A couple of days ago Garth Turner came to town with his traveling bear show from Greater Fool.  In that presentation some are saying he used charts from The Economic Analyst Ben Rabidoux without any attribution.

This kicked off a twitter snark-fest as seen below:

Now I didn’t see the presentation, so I don’t know if there were charts used without attribution, but in any case: BEN IS WRONG!

No, not wrong in this twitter war – Ben is correct to ask for attribution for his work and Turner is a jerk for neither clarifying nor denying the charge.

The reason I say Ben is wrong is because of what he says in this article about new record debt levels for Canadians:

“You can not have everyone in Canada pay off their debts at the same time because that will drag on the economy,” he said. “It is a strange dynamic. How do you pay off the debt when paying off the debt itself becomes an economic headwind?”

OK, maybe wrong is not the right word, more like incomplete.  As Patriotz points out:

I think Ben’s scenario is slightly off the mark. Crunch time will happen not when people decide to start paying off their debts, but when they simply can’t borrow any more.

And as Fixieguy points out it should read something more like this:

“… it shows the extent to which our economic growth is based on debt instead of fundamentals, a scenario which can’t be sustained for long before the jobs created evaporate…”

So mark your calendars, for here is one thing that Ben is wrong about and that is remarkable because Ben is never wrong.

82 Comments
newest
oldest most voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
patriotz
8 years ago

@Anonymous:
I said (exact quote) “If a rental property (commercial or residential) is sitting empty that means the owner is asking above market rent by definition.”

Is VS going to move into every empty storefront in town, douche?

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@Vote Down The Facts: “So it sounds like Victoria’s Secret is taking over 2 floors of the former HMV on Robson. Perhaps the predictions of the death of Vancouver retail are premature?”

There is over a 1000 Victoria Secret stores and this will be the second largest. That is quite a statement for Robson retail when you think about this one being larger than stores in Vegas, New York, LA, etc. Who was claiming Robson rents were too high by definition because HMV closed down? I am still laughing at that one.

Betamax
Betamax
8 years ago

Devore — like PW stated, she’s living with her middle class kids. Doesn’t need the money but she lived through revolutions and famines in which people ate tree bark to stay alive, so she wants to earn. Can’t work elsewhere, so this is her ‘job’. She can’t believe what these crazy westerners will throw away.

GNFINGR
8 years ago

You’re

Girlbear
Girlbear
8 years ago

@McLovin: Vic Secrets will do fine. They already bot La Senza a while ago and now they are looking to go a little higher end in Van. Their catalogue sales to Canada are large. They know what they are doing. There is no real competition.

Just sayin’ 🙂

McLovin
McLovin
8 years ago

Vote,

I saw that, quite interesting. 36,000sq feet -they are taking a huge bet on this place. I don’t know if this is a well thought out undertaking, could easily see it fail

That said, I’m looking forward to browsing the aisles:-)

Vote Down The Facts
Vote Down The Facts
8 years ago

So it sounds like Victoria’s Secret is taking over 2 floors of the former HMV on Robson. Perhaps the predictions of the death of Vancouver retail are premature?

McLovin
McLovin
8 years ago

Well, I don’t swallow it, is what I meant to say.

McLovin
McLovin
8 years ago

No way I’d do that, I don’t even drink milk!

Romeo Jordan
Romeo Jordan
8 years ago

Anon, why would I need to do cocaine when I can get the ultimate high of watching the Vancouver housing market shit the bed?

Give your head a shake, you douche bag.

HAM Solo
HAM Solo
8 years ago

Ben = Judean People’s Front

Garth = People’s Front of Judea

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

No more cocaine for you, Romeo.

VanDweller
VanDweller
8 years ago

NYTimes has a nice buy/rent calculator. Go give it a try at:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html

Romeo Jordan
Romeo Jordan
8 years ago

Fuck you Maurice, your a leech and a loser.

Meth, good points. That said, I don’t think China is fucked. But it’s taking a few steps back, and that should be enough to help take westside prices down up to 60% over the next 2-3 years. I can hardly believe it, but it is finally here! This will be epic.

McLovin, I married that girl (not that marriage is perfect, we have our issues, but so far so good). Sure, I lost $8000 on the condo, big deal, that’s less than one month’s net income. I admit it, I lost. Now admit that your a cat sucker, for $20 a pop on Saturday nights. I’m not knocking you, I mean we all have to build up a downpayment somehow. But that’s a dirty business, you should milk cows instead.

Maurice
Maurice
8 years ago

I was at Garth’s presentation Monday, it was a great night and he landed a powerful message. I am a fan but I did recognize a number of his charts from Ben’s posts on the Economic Analyst. A little credit is warranted….come clean Garth!

VHB
VHB
8 years ago
Aug-2012	
Total days	22
Days elapsed so far	16
Weekends / holidays	7
Days missing	0
Days remaining	6
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	71
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	183
SALES	
Sales so far	1265
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	426
Projected month end total	1691
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	3165
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1097
Projected month end total	4262
Sell-list so far	40.0%
Projected month-end sell-list	39.7%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of August 23, 2012	18918
Current MoI at this sales pace	11.19
Muff Diver Mike
Muff Diver Mike
8 years ago

@Proud and extremely rich Chinese home owners:

Now you’re talking right outta yer ass

Loon
Loon
8 years ago

Ben should come to Vancouver and put on a presentation for all to see and then we can judge for ourselves !

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
8 years ago

The actual amount people in BC owe in non-mortgage debt is $37,800 vs $26,200 for Canada.

Expect more shops and restaurants to close all over the lower mainland.

paulb
8 years ago

New Listings 156
Price Changes 93
Sold Listings 72
TI:18918

http://www.paulboenisch.com

TNT
TNT
8 years ago

Ben no need to get your panties in a knot.

I was at the event and the charts provided much information to potential clients, you should be flattered.

Garth was probably far to busy to go through all that work, and why bother?

Ben become a realist and turn that frown upside down(its easier to go with the flow, charts)

Proud and extremely rich Chinese home owners
Proud and extremely rich Chinese home owners
8 years ago

@kansai92:
China is to strong and too big to be fucked,we have 3.5 millons in Arm Force.Ten million paramilitary police,most important 1000 Nucleau ICBM.Our Navy is strong enough to land on this city to protect its citizens in case of White riots like the one in 19 century.

Anonymous
Anonymous
8 years ago

@Best place on meth: “He’s just promoting the myth of “Chinese money will power Vancouver real estate forever ’cause they’re so fucking rich and powerful” like every other lowlife douchebag in the real estate cartel and the media.”

Talking about me? Or rksleung? Either way, you need a good spanking and a tongue-scrubbing.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
8 years ago

@Anonymous:

He’s just promoting the myth of “Chinese money will power Vancouver real estate forever ’cause they’re so fucking rich and powerful” like every other lowlife douchebag in the real estate cartel and the media.

Nothing we haven’t seen a thousand times before.

Absinthe
Absinthe
8 years ago

@Devore: I’m in Marpole and there are quite a number of neatly dressed older Asian folks who come around on garbage day to collect the cans. One woman has a wheelie as you describe. They’re lovely and polite and don’t make a mess.

There’s also the Mercedes Shark which I find a little weird. Only seen it twice, very late – 1 or 2 am. It’s a shiny, black, expensive looking car (might not be a Mercedes, but similar) – and a couple inside. They pull up, grab cans and anything else we’ve left back there to share forward, and drive on. I can’t imagine that cans are of greater return than cost of gas, though, so it baffles me. Maybe it’s gas-paid work vehicle?