The ‘right price’ keeps changing
Yesterday we heard from a Vancouver Realtor about why condos aren’t selling.
They’re overpriced.
And now there’s this article in the Vancouver Sun Buyers on the Sidelines as Market Slows.
Its all about the market slowdown – we’re now seeing the lowest number of sales since 2000 in Vancouver.
Nice houses that are priced right are selling within days, some in bidding wars. But anything priced too high or considered undesirable is apt to sit idle in this market, which is, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, witnessing the lowest total sales for the region since July, 2000. The Board reported 2,098 property sales in July, a drop of 11.2 per cent compared to June. It’s a drop of 18.4 per cent compared to July, 2011.
There are many anecdotal stories around the Lower Mainland about houses that have sat on the market for months, priced too high for the more price-conscious market. A six-year-old West Vancouver home on a 21,000-square-foot lot overlooking Capilano Golf & Country Club was originally listed at $3.695-million three months ago. The owners have reduced the price by $400,000 and it still hasn’t sold.
“There is a lot of product but it’s not selling for the price that people expected or hoped for,” says real estate finance expert Tsur Somerville, who is director of the University of B.C.’s Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate. “People aren’t buying at the prices that are being set.”
Well here’s a funny thing about ‘the right price’ in a correcting market: it keeps changing.
I live in a BC market that is several years into it’s correction and I can tell you that the places that are selling are moving only at prices that are lower than the ‘right price’ a year ago and far lower than the ‘right price’ several years ago.
August 15th, 2012 at 12:04 am 1
“A six-year-old West Vancouver home on a 21,000-square-foot lot overlooking Capilano Golf & Country Club was originally listed at $3.695-million three months ago.”
Example of an creme-de-la-creme needing to drop price?
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August 15th, 2012 at 12:11 am 2
An extension of the “It’s different here” argument is the “my property is special” one. This cruise ship is turning around and very few people have noticed it so far. When they do, the rush for the lifeboats will get interesting and you can forget about ladies and children first chivalry.
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August 15th, 2012 at 2:06 am 3
Just going to float this one: maybe few are buying because there are few buyers. On a related note, I’m a pedestrian when I’m pushing my fixie up a hill, but when I’m riding it down the other side, I’m not really a pedestrian.
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August 15th, 2012 at 3:12 am 4
Living is Vancouver is getting stupid now. Same job paid more in the states, houses are cheaper in the states, cars are cheaper in the states, pretty much everything are cheaper in the states as I found myself buying everything online now. Time to move instead of waiting for Vancouver to sink…
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August 15th, 2012 at 3:43 am 5
This is off topic. I saw someone complained about Chinese women wearing visors on the street.
Watch out for the new trend in China. This might come to Vancouver soon. It’s full body swimming suit with face mask.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/local/2012-08/13/c_112710330.htm
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August 15th, 2012 at 3:44 am 6
Tsur:“People aren’t buying at the prices that are being set.”
Um Tsur, a price is set when someone buys. People aren’t buying at the prices that are being asked.
#3:”maybe few are buying because there are few buyers.”
If by a buyer who mean someone who actually buys, well of course that’s tautological.
If by a buyer you mean someone who would like to buy, there are always more people who would like to buy than people who would like to sell. Houses don’t sell because the latter are asking more than the former are willing to pay.
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August 15th, 2012 at 6:01 am 7
@6 patriotz: Spin is versatile. The housing market for Tsur isn’t overpriced; some members of that market have unrealistic expectations. implying fundamentals are fine. Pastrick pushes an HPI he didn’t when the average painted a much rosier picture, adding an unsupported note of hope: “I think in 2013, we’ll also begin to see sales pick up as well.” Hold the line citizen, the market will return next year. I think.
Not one of these ‘academics’ suggests the most expensive market in Canadian history, on the tail of the most corrosive real estate bubbles in history, might simply be inflated. How do these pricks sleep at night?
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August 15th, 2012 at 6:07 am 8
Re: Costo Bellingham. It made the news in the most read french newspaper!
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conso/2012/08/15/05007-20120815ARTFIG00088–bellingham-la-chasse-aux-canadiens-est-ouverte.php
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August 15th, 2012 at 7:34 am 9
I just woke from a nightmare. In it, I had a speckerfriend (a real person), come over yelling at me if I want to help make 12 million bucks. I said how? he replied building a mansion in Whistler. I face palmed and said haven’t you seen vancouverpricedrop ? He’d never heard of it, I told him he would be lucky to get 8 mill in this market. A desperate look came over him, I asked how much to break even ? He said 3 million, I told him I would think about it ….and then I woke up !
If this were real, I would tell him to take a flying f@ck. I’ve got to stop reading these articles just before sleep.
Anybody else experiencing this at night ?
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August 15th, 2012 at 8:03 am 10
@patriotz: If all Chinese don’t sell the price still holding firm until the next up swing.That is the past history of Van and more and more wealthy Chinese come to this city so price won’t go back to 2007 level period. 60% of Vancouver house owner are Chinese.
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August 15th, 2012 at 8:17 am 11
@Moivng to the States: good luck to you. another relief on the medical system!
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August 15th, 2012 at 8:20 am 12
@stupid logic:
Until he gets really ill or retires, and comes back. And acute and elder care account for the great bulk of Medicare costs.
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August 15th, 2012 at 8:27 am 13
http://www.vancouversun.com/touch/news/Vancouver+once+again+world+third+most+livable+city/7093534/story.html
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August 15th, 2012 at 8:38 am 14
@Vote Down The Facts:
“Two other Canadian cities —Toronto and Calgary — followed Vancouver in fourth and fifth place, respectively”
Yeah right…
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August 15th, 2012 at 8:48 am 15
@patriotz:
The Canadian government makes no effort to stop “Canadians of convenience”. Is it unethical to take advantage of that? Or is it simply the rational choice?
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August 15th, 2012 at 9:15 am 16
@UnagiDon:
I wasn’t saying it was unethical. I was commenting on “stupid logic”‘s comment that it would be a “relief on the medical system”. In fact Canadians becoming non-resident during their peak earning years and then returning represent a net burden.
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August 15th, 2012 at 9:19 am 17
@patriotz: how do you know he would last until retiring?
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August 15th, 2012 at 9:39 am 18
If he’s moving to the US he most likely has a good job and good income. If that’s the case he’ll be receiving MUCH better health care at an overall MUCH lower price when you factor in how much of our tax dollars goes towards health care. And as far as a relieve to the medical system, again, if he is making a decent salary he is contributing way more to the system than taking from it.
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August 15th, 2012 at 9:57 am 19
For the Canadians who buy all the milk( the whole pallet as they say) the solution is that Costco should open a store right at the border, if possible at the peace arch so no border crossing necessary. It will look ugly but our American friends will park they big cars freely horizontally.
Ps: I can’t believe the newspapers have nothing important to deal with.
On topic: BNN headlines had the following this morning” July average Vancouver home pricing drop by 12%”
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August 15th, 2012 at 9:59 am 20
@an observer:
“If that’s the case he’ll be receiving MUCH better health care at an overall MUCH lower price”
That is, as long as the insurers consider him to be a good risk. If Obamacare goes through that will mediate things somewhat, but not fully I think.
Of course as I said, as a Canadian he can have his cake and eat it too by coming back.
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August 15th, 2012 at 9:59 am 21
Prices were going up? Chinese fault! Prices are going down? Still Chinese fault…
The Globe and Mail in full spinning mode again:
@Listing chill hits Vancouver housing market
My preferred part of the article:
“But a closer look at the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Home Price Index, which tracks the change in prices for same-home sales in the five major real estate markets in Canada, shows prices in Vancouver are actually 0.64 per cent higher than last year.
The MLS index measures price differences over time between comparable homes — townhouses to townhouses, mansions to mansions and so on. Using this metric, home prices fell a modest 0.74 per cent between June and July .
What this means is the kinds of homes now being sold in Vancouver is changing. Fewer multi-million-dollar properties are finding buyers, and it’s more modest condos and townhouses seeing action.
“Here, we’re really getting in to the question of foreign investment,” Mr. Fong said. “Vancouver is the epicentre of the big question of what kind of impact is foreign investment having [on the Canadian real estate market].”
Anecdotally, market watchers know a lot of those high-priced properties were being bought up by Asian investors in the past. Now, a Chinese economic slowdown that has seen the rate of growth in the country decline for six consecutive quarters could be putting a damper on the spirits of these investors, making them less likely to lay out the cash to buy foreign real estate, Mr. Fong said.
“There’s no data on the issue … [but] it’s definitely a reasonable explanation,” Mr. Fong said.
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August 15th, 2012 at 10:02 am 22
@Vote Down The Facts: #3, ouch. But why do we have more expensive RE than Vienna and Melbourne, which is #2 and #1 on the most livable list (according to Demographia)? OTOH, why isn’t HK #1 on the most livable list with its highest RE price?
Livable and RE prices aren’t really correlated, is it?
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August 15th, 2012 at 10:06 am 23
@G: “Watch out for the new trend in China. This might come to Vancouver soon. It’s full body swimming suit with face mask.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/local/2012-08/13/c_112710330.htm
”
Looks like a promo for the Avengers
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August 15th, 2012 at 10:18 am 24
@gokou3: “But why do we have more expensive RE than Vienna and Melbourne”
Not so sure about Melbourne, but I suspect the HAM is not too keen on having to learn German.
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August 15th, 2012 at 10:21 am 25
There was a comment yesterday about how most stuff that’s selling on the West Side is going for 10% below assessed.
This got me thinking. Instead of relying on avg, median or HPI to determine price drops, it seems to me the best way to get a sense for price change from month to month is to compare sale price to assessment value, then avg that out.
In a simplictic example, if we have 2 houses that sell in month 1. One at 5% above assessed and one at 5% below assessed…this would avergage out to being equal to assessment.
Then in month 2, we have two different houses that sell. Once at 10% below assessed, and one at assessment value. This obviously would average out to 5% below assessment. We could then say that prices dropped 5% from month 1 to month 2.
With a large sample size, I think it would show an accurate trend. This method would also eliminate any skewing since we would be averaging a % change, which is weighted equally.
Thoughts?
I was thinking some folks on this site would have sufficient access to the data to be able to do this calculation.
It might be a lot of work, but might be fun to try it for certain neighbourhoods such as Richmond or West Side.
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August 15th, 2012 at 10:32 am 26
@Makaya: That article definitely wanders off into the cow vetch. But, the first three paragraphs following the lede are pretty solid:
This is a relatively new narrative, and a necessary next step in the burst. The decrease in listings reflects not-quite-serious and not-yet-serious sellers, so it’s nothing to be worried about.
Ultimately, it’s the have-to-sellers that really matter, and it’s not like they have the luxury of waiting indefinitely or flirting with the market. As long as have-to-sell properties are forced to compete for a smaller pool of buyers, prices will be pushed down.
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August 15th, 2012 at 10:34 am 27
@Makaya: At any Costco, count how many late model German and Luxury Japanese cars in the parking lot!
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August 15th, 2012 at 10:36 am 28
@Bag it and tag it:
good idea but getting assessed values seems like a manual process via bc assessment website. Perhaps doable via crowd-sourcing on google spreadsheet among interested vci members.
but assessed value also has its shortcomings. eg. some houses may be partially completed or had renovations since the date of assessment (July of previous year).
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August 15th, 2012 at 10:41 am 29
Just notice the 5y bond rate went up to 1.502 from the low of 1.07 in June.
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August 15th, 2012 at 10:54 am 30
@Madashell: How do you think they afford the expensive cars? This isn’t rocket science!
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August 15th, 2012 at 10:56 am 31
@VMD: “good idea but getting assessed values seems like a manual process via bc assessment website. Perhaps doable via crowd-sourcing on google spreadsheet among interested vci members.”
You should probably read the website’s T&Cs – I believe they expressly prohibit what you’re proposing.
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August 15th, 2012 at 10:57 am 32
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120815-706584.html
“Average existing home prices in Canada declined 2% on a year-over-year basis in July, but the loss was concentrated largely in Vancouver, where prices fell 12.2%, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.”
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August 15th, 2012 at 11:26 am 33
@Vote Down The Facts: “I believe they expressly prohibit what you’re proposing.”
Yes, actually even publicly referencing MLS price info without prior consent can get you a letter from an MLS lawyer. If you think that’s unfair let your MP know.
BC Assessment makes some of its money by charging fees for access to the data it has, as does the LTO. If you don’t like it let your MLA know.
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August 15th, 2012 at 11:31 am 34
@Madashell:
That’s only 50 basis points; ’tis but a flesh wound! What, you mean that’s equivalent to a 40% increase in just a couple of months?!? Gulp!!
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August 15th, 2012 at 11:32 am 35
drove back from the airport along granville street…there musta been 30 to 40 for sale signs from 16th to about 70th. some of the signs looked like they had been there a while.
if i was from out of town and was being driven downtown i might think, ‘why is everyone fleeing?’.
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August 15th, 2012 at 11:39 am 36
@jesse: I find it so strange that the same people that think it’s important to drive an overpriced vehicle aren’t embarrassed to be seen fighting over a grocery sale or buying cartloads of expired dented tins of food.
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August 15th, 2012 at 11:46 am 37
@oneangryslav2:
“That’s only 50 basis points; ’tis but a flesh wound! What, you mean that’s equivalent to a 40% increase in just a couple of months?!? Gulp!!”
It’s still super low by historical standards, and doesn’t indicate any imminent increase in interest rates.
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August 15th, 2012 at 11:47 am 38
@Vote Down The Facts: Just more nails for the coffin for the Vancouver Real Estate.
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August 15th, 2012 at 11:52 am 39
@Vote Down The Facts: “It’s still super low by historical standards, and doesn’t indicate any imminent increase in interest rates.”
I don’t know of much that indicates an “imminent increase in interest rates” of the 5 year bond. If you know of such a beast, you will be able to afford a westside mansion in very short order. Thanks for the wonderful insight.
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August 15th, 2012 at 12:07 pm 40
@jesse
Not to put words in anyone’s mouth but probably what he means is that this series is super volatile and bounces around like crazy for no apparent reason. What seems like a significant move, +40 bps in 3 weeks, seems more significant than it is, only because rates are so absurdly low.
Unless we see yields move higher from here I expect we’ll continue to see deeply discounted 5 yr rates at 3% as the typical spread is about 150 bps.
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August 15th, 2012 at 12:09 pm 41
@jesse: “don’t know of much that indicates an “imminent increase in interest rates” of the 5 year bond. If you know of such a beast, you will be able to afford a westside mansion in very short order. Thanks for the wonderful insight.”
It was a reference to those who think a mortgage interest rate hike is coming every time bond yields tick up slightly.
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August 15th, 2012 at 12:14 pm 42
@Anonymous:
Austria (Wienna) do not let them in so easy if at all. What they are going to do with them in the heart of Europe anyway?
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August 15th, 2012 at 12:21 pm 43
@Madashell: @legacy:
It is normal in some cultures.
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August 15th, 2012 at 12:40 pm 44
@Vote Down The Facts: If you can predict the future direction of interest rate based on examination of an interest rate vs time graph, then you would be too rich to think about the fluctuations in vancouver RE.
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August 15th, 2012 at 12:43 pm 45
@gokou3: “If you can predict the future direction of interest rate based on examination of an interest rate vs time graph, then you would be too rich to think about the fluctuations in vancouver RE”
Fixed term mortgage rates are derived in part from the bond market.
My prediction on the future direction of interest rates is based on the US Feds saying they’ll keep rates low until late 2014. No magic necessary.
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August 15th, 2012 at 12:51 pm 46
@VMD: Good points. One option might be to do a random sample of properties each month and compare sale value to assessment value. It would be interesting to see the month by month change in the sample avg. We could even go back 6 months and take a random sample and compare to this month so see how far we’ve come in those 6 months….
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August 15th, 2012 at 12:56 pm 47
@Vote Down The Facts:
Take your eye off the rates and look at availability. The total amount of government mortgage guarantees cannot continue to increase indefinitely. That’s what the recent CMHC changes were all about and you will see further tightening of qualifications if the growth in debt does not taper off. That’s what’s going to bring this bubble to an end.
Low rates don’t help you buy if you can’t qualify to borrow.
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August 15th, 2012 at 1:17 pm 48
@Vote Down The Facts: So why isn’t US real estate prices sky high again?
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August 15th, 2012 at 1:19 pm 49
@Vote Down The Facts: “It was a reference to those who think a mortgage interest rate hike is coming every time bond yields tick up slightly.”
I read more silence when rates drop but let’s chalk it up to wilful blindness. Still, if rates are going to have gone up, they’ll have to go up first. Or put another way, going from a low rate environment to a high rate environment involves rates going from low to high.
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August 15th, 2012 at 1:19 pm 50
@Vote Down The Facts: And why did 5yr bond rate goes from 1.07 to 1.502% in two months, per a previous poster, when US Fed has not changed rates for the past 3 years?
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August 15th, 2012 at 1:25 pm 51
@Vote Down The Facts: “My prediction on the future direction of interest rates is based on the US Feds saying they’ll keep rates low until late 2014″
Yet another wonderful superb cash-generation activity right there if you’re right.
Someone told me once that long rates encompass all future expectations of short rates, or something to that effect. So moving rates higher in (at earliest) 2014 is — hang on… (tap tap tap) — 2 years away. That means the 5 year bond has — (tap tap tap) — 3 years to maturity after 2014. So let’s say overnight rates might be thought to be increasing post-2014. Maybe the mouth-breathers trading the longs are thinking that’s more likely now than before.
Or maybe they finally read (and I mean r-e-a-d) zerohedge and see hyperinflation in our future.
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August 15th, 2012 at 2:13 pm 52
I’ll have to go find the link but it was either Krugman or Steve Keen had a post recently about interest rate increases and used Japan as an example. Basically when rates get this low it takes a very long time for them to go up.
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August 15th, 2012 at 2:20 pm 53
@Makaya:
“Using this metric, home prices fell a modest 0.74 per cent between June and July”
That’s a considerably less modest 9% on an annualized basis i.e. full scale crash.
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August 15th, 2012 at 2:22 pm 54
Apparently prices are rising, people are just buying cheaper properties. It all makes sense now!
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August 15th, 2012 at 2:45 pm 55
@JR:
“either Krugman or Steve Keen had a post recently about interest rate increases and used Japan as an example.”
Not a very useful example since Japan was the world’s biggest creditor and had a high savings rate and high personal savings when their bubble burst.
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August 15th, 2012 at 2:46 pm 56
New Listings 190
Back On Market Listings 9
Price Changes 128
Sold Listings 76
AS OF 2:46PM
ALL LOWERMAINLAND
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August 15th, 2012 at 2:49 pm 57
ASKING 11,888,000 SOLD TODAY 9,180,00
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August 15th, 2012 at 3:11 pm 58
@HFHC: Your data point has inspired me to come up with my own HAM statistic. So, the statistic is meant to gauge the intensity of HAM-buying over time. The higher the number, the more HAM-intense buying has been. So, here’s how it is calculated: take the number of 8s in the sold price of a property and divide that by the number of 8s in the initial selling price. In this case, it would be 1 and 3, for a Selling Price HAM (SPHAM) Index of 0.33. Do this for all sales in a month and take the mean for the final monthly SPAHM Index.
[Before VDTF chimes in about the problems with the index, of which there are many, I'm just kidding.]
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August 15th, 2012 at 3:13 pm 59
@HFHC: Woohoo! 9 million dollar sale is gonna push up the average! Boom times are here again!
I can only hope condos stop selling altogether, and then the average price will skyrocket!
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August 15th, 2012 at 3:33 pm 60
@oneangryslav2: How about just taking the number of 8s in the selling price and subtracting the number of 8s in the asking price as in HFHC example posted just before you.
That would be a -2 but could have been a +2
A properly goofy superstitious buyer should have payed 9,188,888 for that place.
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August 15th, 2012 at 3:43 pm 61
@Anonymous: Right, and that would be just as meaningless as the 12% “pricedrop” the bears keep talking about.
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August 15th, 2012 at 3:58 pm 62
@oneangryslav2:
tracking the amount of listings with “wok kitchen” could be interesting
http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/search?q=wok
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August 15th, 2012 at 4:06 pm 63
@VMD: I have a wok. Does that make my kitchen a “wok” kitchen? How much does that add to the value of my house?
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August 15th, 2012 at 4:46 pm 64
@Anonymous: #63
you were asking a renter the value of your house?
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August 15th, 2012 at 4:49 pm 65
I always liked the data point that was around in someones summaries a while back (Paulb, or VHB I would assume), which was a daily % below ask on the selling price.
I seem to recall that number getting up around 4 or 5% as SHTF in 2008 (versus hovering around 1-2% typically.
I would think it would track price changes quite well.
Any chance of bringing that one back?
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August 15th, 2012 at 5:21 pm 66
@FlipFlop:
Rob Chipman has been posting that exact info on his blog for a long time now. You can still get some of the older figures (from before his site redesign) using WaybackMachine. For example, here’s what he said precisely 4 years ago, for the week ending Aug 15th 2008 :
“This week there were 1,279 new listings, with an average list price of $644,453. There were 438 sales, for a sell/list of 34.25%. Average list price of sales was $516,384; average sales price was $501,212, a difference of $15,172, or 2.94%. Average DOMs was 49. There were 16 overlists (3.65%), with an average list price of $552,894, and an average sales price of $652,163, $99,269, or 17.95% higher. DOMs for overlists was 39.There were 929 price changes, of which 15, or 1.61%, were increases. Average original price of price changes was 656,499; average new price was $29,866, or 4.55% lower, at $626,583. DOMs to price change was 62. The average sale price was only 79.99% of the average new price of price changes. Its not surprising that over 90s are growing. Inventory reached 19,206.”
http://web.archive.org/web/20080824040041/http://robchipman.net/blog/
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August 15th, 2012 at 5:26 pm 67
@Anonymous:
since the topic of “rent” and “house value” comes up…
I’m currently in the market for a newer and larger condo to rent.
My current 1B+Den unit has a Price-to-Rent ratio of 283 months, or 23.6 years.
a 3BR unit that I might be interested in sits at 25.4 years P-R ratio.
According to Investopedia
Price-to-rent ratio of 1 to 15 = much better to buy than rent
Price-to-rent ratio of 16 to 20 = typically better the rent than buy
Price-to-rent ratio of 21 or more = much better to rent than buy
It might be interesting to see what kind of P-R ratios we’re seeing for bachelor/1BR/2BR/3BR units in this city.
I’d hazard a guess that ground floor bachelor units would have the lowest P-R ratios (thus best return for investors)..
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August 15th, 2012 at 5:32 pm 68
@Moivng to the States”, “Time to move instead of waiting for Vancouver to sink…”
When we moved to Calgary in 2007, we had already waited for the market to correct for some time. Glad we didn’t wait any longer, it would have been painful. It’s still going to take some time.
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August 15th, 2012 at 5:56 pm 69
That $9M sale was bought in 2009 for $3M. Nothing done to it at all.
Put all your eggs in real estate people… 3X your money
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August 15th, 2012 at 5:58 pm 70
New Listings 175
Price Changes 110
Sold Listings 53
TI:18826
http://www.paulboenisch.com
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August 15th, 2012 at 6:03 pm 71
Ouch looks like the majority of long weekend sales and pre July 9 sales are cleared out
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August 15th, 2012 at 6:05 pm 72
@Realtor says: Yup and just wait to see what the 9M buyer gets for it in a flip.
3X Gains or 3X Losses…
Should be interesting…
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August 15th, 2012 at 6:09 pm 73
My realtor’s phone is ringing off the hook today. Sudden interest in viewing listings. Anyone care to speculate?
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August 15th, 2012 at 6:16 pm 74
@xyz: Just add a wok in the kitchen and flip it for 12 million.
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August 15th, 2012 at 6:18 pm 75
@paulb:
People are really putting the brakes on. And these sales numbers reflect a market that is still unaware of the unfolding crash. For example, a couple of weeks ago I hung out with a guy who doesn’t have a day job, he just renovates and flips. He was oblivious to the shift in the market, and quoted Global as saying prices were up (HPI). Another friend, who took out a home-equity loan to cover his daughters down payment was even less aware (basically unaware that there is such as thing as a market that can change). When the truth gets out to the masses, we are going to see sales grind to a near dead stop.
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August 15th, 2012 at 6:19 pm 76
@Realtor: My realtor’s phone is ringing off the hook today. Sudden interest in viewing listings. Anyone care to speculate?
Those are probably just repo guys coming after your beemer. Be careful at your showings.
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August 15th, 2012 at 6:20 pm 77
Tonight I will try to share as much info as I can with you guys. Computer has been kicking out of the system lately….maybe they have found out I’m sharing the information.
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August 15th, 2012 at 6:21 pm 78
@Realtor says: Sure, I’ll speculate. You’re a twit! How’d I do??
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August 15th, 2012 at 6:24 pm 79
“we are going to see sales grind to a near dead stop.”
Ain’t gonna happen
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August 15th, 2012 at 6:35 pm 80
@Anonymous: I have 2 wok’s I’ll give you one for a cut on the profit.. hahah
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August 15th, 2012 at 6:39 pm 81
2008… Someone very close to me was working in collections…
He spent 99% of his time on the clock calling Realtors.
He has a much better job now but surmises that is EXACTLY what his ex-coworkers are doing now.
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August 15th, 2012 at 6:40 pm 82
@Realtor says:
You’re right troll, there will always be some sales and we need some sales otherwise prices can’t move down rapidly as desperate people take whatever they’re offered.
If sales ground to a halt then prices would freeze in a Mexican standoff.
So come on buyers, we need a few of you to take one for the team!
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August 15th, 2012 at 6:54 pm 83
@N: The CMHC are the ones putting the brakes on. Without them this bubble would have never materialized because the banks would have had to shoulder the risk and would have been far more carefull – regardless of interest rates.
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August 15th, 2012 at 7:06 pm 84
@Eddie:
Not that I don’t agree. I do agree, but the CMHC changes only impact a few specific sections of the market at the moment. For example, they have no impact on move-up buyers who have a large down payment available. (I know they will, in future, when first time buyers stop buying the move-up buyers’ houses.) This makes me think that people are also choosing to put the brakes on, not only because they can’t get the financing, but because they sense that things have changed. When they know that things have changed, and the CMHC changes have worked their way through the whole market, the drop off will be greater.
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August 15th, 2012 at 7:07 pm 85
I’m a troll cause a house sold for 3X as much in just 3 years…
Imagine where prices will be in 3 years from now..
You can keep renting
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August 15th, 2012 at 7:23 pm 86
Funny about the collection story.. all the Realtors I know are buying new cars. Keep in mind that only about 1,000 Realtors actually work. It’s the old 10% of the Realtors do 90% of the sales. The others just hold a license to help a friend or relative or themselves save a few bucks.
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August 15th, 2012 at 7:27 pm 87
@Realtor says: I don’t think you’re a troll but you are very naive if you think that 3x in 3 years is anything more than dumb ass luck meeting wealthy idiots on parade
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August 15th, 2012 at 7:27 pm 88
“Funny about the collection story.. all the Realtors I know are buying new cars. Keep in mind that only about 1,000 Realtors actually work. It’s the old 10% of the Realtors do 90% of the sales. The others just hold a license to help a friend or relative or themselves save a few bucks.”
It’s true guys. Realtors don’t suffer like you think.
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August 15th, 2012 at 7:36 pm 89
Copied from PaulB’s number
http://www.laurenandpaul.ca
August numbers
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August 15th, 2012 at 7:41 pm 90
@Jp: Of course they don’t. Cue the tooth fairy.
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August 15th, 2012 at 9:04 pm 91
MSM articles like this will continue to erode people’s confidence in RE:
“Canadian home prices falling steadily”
8/15/2012
- “Home prices continued to decline across the country in July and the pace of the depreciation is picking up, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.”
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/fp/Canadian+home+prices+falling+steadily/7094482/story.html#ixzz23g7uaOpS
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August 15th, 2012 at 9:22 pm 92
I only know one realtor because my wife’s friend married him. He is a full-time REALTOR who was selling 4 units/houses a month for the last whatever years but he hasn’t sold anything since May..
He asked me on Sunday if my industry was hiring
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August 15th, 2012 at 9:52 pm 93
Inventory remains stubbornly high.
Just wait till the “fall selling season” rolls around.
BHAHA HA AHA HA AHAHA AHA H
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August 15th, 2012 at 10:04 pm 94
@McLovin: wait for what? you are not becoming a homeowner any time soon with that 100k, you know that. but, guys like you, alway say having billion of dollars.
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August 15th, 2012 at 10:21 pm 95
Oops. Losing a few potential buyers.
“Number of young people leaving B.C. soars – likely reasons include slow economy, pricey housing”
http://www.theprovince.com/business/Number+young+people+leaving+soars+likely+reasons+include+slow+economy+pricey+housing/7096450/story.html#ixzz23gRoHljL
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August 15th, 2012 at 10:32 pm 96
@good-format: Hi goodformat. How can your 7 day averages be right?
7-day avg 141 67
We do not even have **one** day of listings under 141. How can the average be 141? Similarly, the sales average is too low–I get 93.8 for the last 7 calendar days. Just trying to clarify.
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August 15th, 2012 at 10:40 pm 97
Interestingly, my projected end of month sales and listings are close to those by goodformat. The difference is only the 7-day average row in his post. I’d be grateful if goodformat could clarify.
BTW, last Thursday we had 120 sales. That falls out of the 7day average tomorrow. If we don’t match 120 on Thursday this week, the projected sales figure for the end of the month will fall.
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August 15th, 2012 at 11:07 pm 98
@Anonymous:
We went to a show home (V933008) over the weekend which had a giant red front door entrance, fortune cookies everywhere and a Chinese Cooking book in the kitchen. Not many other people there, just two other couples we ran into at each one – my guess is they were also bored and wanted to see a few overpriced homes. All of us were the wrong ethnic target of this home anyway.
This place was listed Feb 18th 2012 for $824,900 and is now up for $779,000. The others near it with mostly identical floor/land areas are still priced in the $849,000 range. Good luck! We went into one which didn’t even have a finished basement, the Realtor kept reminding us that the two homes between this one have already sold. When I asked her how long it was listed, she said July… or June. I looked it up when we got home, listed in MARCH. Scum.
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August 15th, 2012 at 11:41 pm 99
Jesus Chris look at this, is this desperation or what ? Pay 0% interest for the first 2 years. Next 5 purchasers only !
http://www.outlookliving.com/
Their Math seems a little fishy
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August 15th, 2012 at 11:49 pm 100
Oh and It’s in langley too. Good luck with your commute!
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August 15th, 2012 at 11:55 pm 101
@VHB:
I use 7 day’s data (regardless whether it is working day or not).
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August 15th, 2012 at 11:56 pm 102
Patrick_Saint – it’s impossible that a 4 sales a month Realtor who wants to work has sold nothing since May. Maybe he is down to 2 sales per month which is still on average $15,000 commission or $180,000 per year. So the poor guy drops to $180,000 from $360,000. But to zero, absolutely unlikely.
Start telling the trust or this blog is getting worse than Garth’s idiots and pack of trolls.
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August 16th, 2012 at 12:42 am 103
@good-format: Hi. Thanks for responding. Could you check your formulae? I think it is impossible to get an average of 141 listings no matter what days you include since we have all days above 141 listings. There was a holiday, so maybe you are including that 0 as a 0 rather than as missing. But that holiday is outside your definition of a 7 day window. Thanks.
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August 16th, 2012 at 1:04 am 104
@VHB: He is using zero for weekends. There’s always 2/7 weekend days, and their sales must show up somewhere. The 7 day average may fluctuate during the week, but for week-on-week changes it’s simple and sound.
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August 16th, 2012 at 6:31 am 105
[...] “I just woke from a nightmare. In it, I had a speckerfriend (a real person), come over yelling at me if I want to help make 12 million bucks. I said how? He replied building a mansion in Whistler. I face palmed and said haven’t you seen vancouverpricedrop? He’d never heard of it, I told him he would be lucky to get 8 mill in this market. A desperate look came over him, I asked how much to break even? He said 3 million, I told him I would think about it …and then I woke up !” – Loon at VCI 15 Aug 2012 7:34am [...]
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August 16th, 2012 at 8:53 am 106
To Bullshit,
Im telling what I know to be the truth. You, little man, are speculating. And that is what has Vancouver in the situation its in now..
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