Vancouver is dragging the Canadian market down

Yeah, sales are down across Canada and prices as well.

Average prices across the nation dropped 2% in July on a Year over Year basis.

But it’s really not as bad as it sounds.

That national average is mostly being dragged down by Vancouver where average prices fell 12.2% in July according to the CREA.

So mostly it’s the Vancouver real estate market where prices shot through the roof and are now falling back to earth that is dragging down the national average.

No Canadian real estate market crash yet.

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gokou3
Guest
gokou3

#1 again tonight 🙂

A lot of media stories report the Vancouver drag, but not many state the 12.2% drop yoy… which is expected since that would scare the shxt out of people

Realtor says
Guest
Realtor says

The 12.2% is an average. prices are up on a comparable property basis. It’s just that people are buying lower priced properties naturally because that is the responsible thing to do and the banks are lending them less. Easy folks! Don’t waste your time waiting for a price drop. Contact your local Realtors asap to buy before you are priced out forever 🙂

gokou3
Guest
gokou3

@Realtor says: The Vancouver market has been dropping 10%+ for the past few months vs the year ago periods. Are you saying that the high-end properties didn’t move during this time, Mr. Realtor? Didn’t learn much math in your 5-week Realtor course eh?

Realtor says
Guest
Realtor says

gokou3 – all the information is out there, just read it. This isn’t rocket science. I’m not a Realtor. It doesn’t take a Realtor to understand this stuff. Just not an idiot and troll who thinks prices are going down.

Crikey
Guest
Crikey
@Realtor says: “It’s just that people are buying lower priced properties naturally because…banks are lending them less” Realtor, you are making the Bears’ arguments for them. What do you think happens when the people with the higher priced properties do not have buyers, but are forced to sell? Yes, they LOWER their price. Divorce, death, loss of job, debts, etc, etc, etc. There are a million reasons there will ALWAYS be properties that MUST sell as quick as possible, including at the more “expensive” levels of the market. I’ve seen people who are waiting for their piece of estate sale…of …Let me tell you, they are NEVER very patient, and are certainly not going to wait a year or two to sell for “maybe” some idealistic price. Especially when the proceeds of a sale are to be divided by several… Read more »
Anonymous
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Anonymous

@realtor
what I can see with my own eyes = townhouses in my street. One sold for a million 4 months ago, another one is now for sale for 850k. identical units.

Crikey
Guest
Crikey

And – oops – I broke my own rule below.
Please replace any use of the term “Realtor” in my message below with the less contrived, more honest term, “Used House Salesman”.
Thank you.

ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve

@Crikey:

Bingo! If the guy at $1.5m can’t sell his house, he lowers it to $1.4m. Then everyone at $1.4m lowers their price to $1.3m… and so on and so forth. Price drops trickle down from the top. Lack of high end sales is EXACTLY what leads to lower prices.

VMD
Member

@gokou3:
it seems like our MSM are becoming more adventurous with their choice of vocabulary..

The Province: “Vancouver home resales plummeting
– wow, “plummeting”

yesterday Ottawa Citizen was also saying “the pace of depreciation is picking up”
– wow, “depreciation”. Few months ago it was “the pace of appreciation is slowing down”

someone forgot to give the MSM its happy pills.

patriotz
Member

Canadian buyers face more competition as U.S. housing recovers

Some of those multiple bids are actually coming from other Canadians. It’s still extremely difficult for all but the most credit-worthy Americans to get financing, so Canadians who can make all-cash offers – as most Canadian buyers do – still have a big advantage.

Since Canadian real estate prices have not collapsed the way they did in the U.S., home equity lines of credit are frequent sources of that cash.

Only all-cash from the perspective of the US seller, of course. So Canadian borrowing is pushing up prices in Arizona. Well done – we’re the new California!

registered
Member
registered

@10 patriotz Says: “…..as U.S. housing recovers “

The latest Case Shiller numbers suggest America’s MSM might be popping corks a little prematurely.

http://i48.tinypic.com/ifx0e1.gif

patriotz
Member

@fixie guy:
The headline is correct but not in the sense likely intended. US housing has recovered because prices are back to normal. I repeat – back to normal, not low – as your graph makes clear.

Vansanity
Guest
Vansanity

http://www.theprovince.com/business/Number+young+people+leaving+soars+likely+reasons+include/7096450/story.html

Young people fleeing B.C. in big numbers: Are bad economy and pricey housing to blame?

RFM
Guest
RFM
For comparison: we own property in Regina and monitor the market there every month. Significant sales and price increases every month this year and last. Here is the link for the current monthly report from the Regina MLS: http://www.reginarealtors.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=11&Itemid=20 And here is the full report for July: JULY MLS® SALES UP OVER 2011 Despite falling below the 400 mark for the first time since March, residential property sales reported through the Regina and area MLS® System were up over 2011 in July, said the Association of Regina REALTORS® Inc. There were 386 sales reported during the month in all geographic areas, up 16% from 334 recorded in 2011. This represents the third highest ever for July – behind 2009 (443 sales) and 2007 (424 sales) and well above the immediate past 5-year average of 355 and 10-year average of 314.… Read more »
specialfx3000
Member
specialfx3000

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/08/15/canadian-home-inspectors-to-face-regulation

Home inspectors will soon require to meet national standards for training and education. That’s good news on a few fronts.

– Hopefully more credibility and reason to hire one
– Perhaps this keeps contractors a bit more honest?
– More molds, cracks and leaks to be found
– And my favorite… Job loss for the pathetic ones

Burt
Guest
Burt
RE: Young people leaving BC. I always find it alarming when writers and economists find it “unclear” why something is occurring. Particularly something that can be explained by talking to a half dozen real people. I know we live in a study obsessed age, where everything needs to be modelled and tested for years before its declared to be true, until the next study comes out. Its pretty simple why people are leaving BC, its too expensive! Not just housing, food, insurance, luxuries, all more expensive in BC. Add to this the fact that we certainly do not have the incomes to justify the exuberant prices and it becomes painfully obvious why young people are leaving. Alberta is next door and booming. I have first hand experience, my close friends have moved to Edmonton. The job market up there is… Read more »
Anonymous
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Anonymous

@gokou3: Well, MY high end property hasn’t budged down a penny in the five months its been on the market! I’m holding out for 3,888,888.00 no matter what!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Used house salesman says: “It’s just that people are buying lower priced properties naturally because that is the responsible thing to do and the banks are lending them less.”

The very first computer hard drive I bought was 20 Megs and cost $200. The most recent one I bought was 2terabytes and cost $150.

It’s not that the price of computer gear has come down, people just started buying the better cheaper stuff because that’s the responsible thing to do.

yvr2zrh
Member
On the topic of young people leaving. If I was them, I would run and not walk away from Vancouver. There is no hope here for a long term stable future for anyone other than the very wealthy or with family money. Many of you know that I am leaving town in the coming weeks. Main reasons? 1.) Cost of housing. 2.) Job opportunity taking us elsewhere. 3.) Upcoming government change (Really don’t want to see the effects of this) 4.) The silly vote down of HST which is going to hurt this province’s competitiveness. When I was young(er) – I also left for better opportunity. It was in the era of a $0.63 Canadian Dollar, and a crazy time in Silicon Valley. It was the best move I ever made in my life and really has opened up the… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@ZRH2YVR: “There is no hope here for a long term stable future for anyone other than the very wealthy or with family money.”

What?? You’re leaving because of the cost of housing!!?? But, but, but … isn’t it all about to come crashing down, by … like at least 60%? You’re not doubting jesse and patriots and UnagiDon and all the other wise men and fortune tellers here, are you?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@ZRH2YVR: “If you split it out, it’s the condos/towhouses that are really quite slow now. We are seeing sales in this area almost as low as 2008 and when the stats for this month come out, it is really detached that are up. (i.e., Detached running at 35% over 2008 and attached close to flat).”

Interesting! But how does this square with what we keep hearing that the 12% drop in average prices is not due to a drop in comparable properties, but a different mix of sold properties (i.e. fewer expensive properties selling). If there are fewer condos selling but detached sales keeping pace, shouldn’t we expect the average price to rise?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Anonymous: -2? Why on earth are you guys voting this down? I just asked an honest question.

JR
Guest
JR
@Burt: “I always find it alarming when writers and economists find it “unclear” why something is occurring. Particularly something that can be explained by talking to a half dozen real people.” When I lived in the states before the recession between my friends and riding the bus you could see people get in over their heads, and when gas and COL went up you could literally feel the strain; a credit hangover. The summer of 2007 every bus was packed, people were so spread thin and cutting every unnecessary cost. I knew something was terribly amiss. The problem is most economists and bank executives don’t have friends who are borrowing money from their parents HELOC to buy a place. They don’t ride the bus. They don’t feel the pulse, they just see the reading on the machine. They live in… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@JR: Bernanke and Flaherty are probably doing okay. But, economists (at least the ones I know) are pretty ordinary people, earning a regular salary (as academics or bank employees etc.) and often stretching their budget just like any other ordinary joe, to buy a home in the burbs, save for their kids’ education etc. And they ride the bus, because, just like myself, they don’t want to pay $15 a day for downtown parking.

registered
Member
registered
@13 Vansanity Says: “Are bad economy and pricey housing to blame?” Or Sun reporting? Below is a graph of number of BC residents per age group for years 2000-2001, generated from the most recent BC Stats data. It’s not all sunshine and a bit surprising, but the notion young families and those starting out are fleeing appears completley false: http://i50.tinypic.com/9lg1tz.gif The 20-30 group has shown a dramatic increase over the last ten years. The Boomers appear to still be dying in droves after 70. Most interesting, the 45-55 group appears to be increasing. Maybe jesse can speak to it but my recollection was migration from other provinces was weak at best, if not negative. The implication is this age group is potentially fueled by immigration, a strange result for a federal immigration policy purportedly designed to save us from the… Read more »
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