Vancouver is dragging the Canadian market down

Yeah, sales are down across Canada and prices as well.

Average prices across the nation dropped 2% in July on a Year over Year basis.

But it’s really not as bad as it sounds.

That national average is mostly being dragged down by Vancouver where average prices fell 12.2% in July according to the CREA.

So mostly it’s the Vancouver real estate market where prices shot through the roof and are now falling back to earth that is dragging down the national average.

No Canadian real estate market crash yet.

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Not a Realtor says
Guest
Not a Realtor says

“Is that how it happened anywhere else in the world? Don’t think so.”

Elsewhere in the world people can walk away from mortgages. Can’t do that here without declaring bankruptcy.

🙂

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

http://pacificapartners.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Canadian-Housing-Inventory-Supply-and-Demand.png

It was never a supply amd demand function .. Look at this Pacifica partners chart… it falls in line with what I was observing

Not a Realtor says
Guest
Not a Realtor says

top world class city.. hehe.. was that a joke?

oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2

@Girlbear: A Nordstrom’s is going in. The building is going to be substantially renovated.

Girlbear
Guest
Girlbear

@Not a Realtor says: Interesting theory.

Is that how it happened anywhere else in the world? Don’t think so.

Hey question, anyone hear what is going to happen with the Sears building once Sears vacates? I have heard nothing. Hard to imagine a top world class city with a property that large empty in it’s prime downtown mall…

Not a Realtor says
Guest
Not a Realtor says

I agree jesse – people just aren’t going to sell their properties if they can’t break the mortgage for even. Therefore they end up stuck in the property and prices remain stuck and a bottom gets put in on prices very quickly. I’ve been trying to explain that to everyone here. Maybe you can help me explain it.

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow

@McLovin:

I think we’ll be hearing a lot of that in the years to come “sold for under what it’s worth”

hahahahahahahaha

good-format
Guest
good-format
Copied from PaulB’s number http://www.laurenandpaul.ca Date Listing Sales S/L Price(+-) Inv Inv(+-) Aug-01 258 61 23.6 99 18,708 Aug-02 182 49 26.9 114 18,740 32 Aug-03 202 93 46.0 92 18,799 59 Aug-06 0 0 0 0 - Aug-07 232 113 48.7 128 18,784 -15 Aug-08 210 49 23.3 105 18,851 67 Aug-09 195 120 61.5 119 18,816 -35 Aug-10 169 96 56.8 118 18,806 -10 Aug-13 206 103 50.0 124 18,788 -18 Aug-14 239 97 40.6 125 18,811 23 Aug-15 175 53 30.3 110 18,826 15 Aug-16 183 76 41.5 91 18,792 -34 Total-Cur 2,251 910 40.4 1,225 84 7-day avg 139 61 43.7 81 -3 Total-EST 4,612 1,942 42.1 2,604 18,734 22 August numbers year sell list sell/list 2001 2566 3315 77.4% 2002 2468 3287 75.1% 2003 3290 3693 89.1% 2004 2537 3986 63.6% 2005 3649 4366 83.6%… Read more »
Vote Down The Facts
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Vote Down The Facts

@McLovin:

I didn’t say that was the source, it was just my only guess. Perhaps there are other records they can access, relating to building permits? Either way, matched sales pairs are far more reliable than average prices in my opinion – you’re just upset that the indices don’t tell the story you’d like them to.

jesse
Member

@Not a Realtor says: ” cause people pull their properties off the market. It’s the old “I ain’t gonna give it away””

Using the US as a gauge, the math changes significantly when the possibility of prices going even lower sets in, and when financing terms become decidedly worse due to eroding equity booked by banks. That has not happened in any meaningful way in Vancouver for a long time. Looking back the 2008-09 housing recession in Vancouver had significant tailwinds to put in a bottom and de-listings were an easy call given the change in debt-service ratios. A drop of 10% nominal or so, coupled with limited ability to access more favourable financing, is a situation that hasn’t occurred in Vancouver for close to a generation. I am suspicious few can conceive what that feels like.

McLovin
Guest
McLovin

I’ve no idea. Perhaps because “Renovation Date” is sometimes a field in MLS listings

Wow using MLS listings as data points. No wonder the index is so F@CKED!

Used house salesmen (UHS) don’t put 2 mins into those listings. The info on MLS is as useless as the douche bag listing it.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Out of topic but very troubling:
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/07/201272814252754222.html

Canada mulls China’s massive oil takeover bid

Not a Realtor says
Guest
Not a Realtor says

Anonymous –
Listings can’t climb any higher cause people pull their properties off the market.
It’s the old “I ain’t gonna give it away”

jesse
Member

@An Observer: “Can’t expect to have kids, a life and still live in the best place on earth!”

Move upstate or across the Hudson. Vancouver, I mean Vanhattan, has finally “arrived”. Don’t let the door hit you on the backside on the way out. 🙂

An Observer
Guest

@Chip’s right Makaya, should have thought through about the kid thing. Can’t expect to have kids, a life and still live in the best place on earth!

Bo Xilai
Guest
Bo Xilai

@McLovin:

I was speaking to an 75 yr. old that listed her apt in White Rock 3 months ago.

—————

At that age, waiting a year to re-list constitutes long term planning…

Chip
Guest
Chip

@Makaya:

” Result, my wife as been out of work for almost two years now, to look after the kid: ridiculous”

Leaving aside the idea that it’s ridiculous to spend two years raising your children, it’s somewhat ironic that someone who constantly mocks investment decisions in real estate failed to account for the cost of having a child.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Half way through August and we’re on pace for 1820 sales and 40% sell/list.

Last August was 2420 and 51%.

AG Sage
Member

@Anonymous: Yes. That’s the implication.

This is where the market needs a small shock to shake sellers loose. Changes in employment (happening slowly) or interest rates (unlikely) would do it. It’s true to some degree that a sellers strike will work. Heck, banks in the U.S. have been pulling one off successfully in Southern California for years now holding foreclosures off the market to pinch supply.

A default by Greece may or may not do it. Houses do have a bit of the shine that gold does in having value currency cannot. It would cause a shock in Australia where 30 – 40 % of the mortgage funding is coming from overseas, read: Europe.

AG Sage
Member

@VMD: wow, does Home Trust stock to be shorted. Too bad I prefer to sleep well at night. Second liens will be decimated in this crash.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

why are there consistently about twice the amount of listings than sales yet the inventory is sticking at around 18,800?

are there as many people delisting as there are sales every single day?

frank
Guest
frank

@paulb:

With such a low sales/list I wonder why it is taking the inventory so long to build up. Must be some people giving up on selling for now and pulling off the market.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

@McLovin:

“How could they possibly know? ”

I’ve no idea. Perhaps because “Renovation Date” is sometimes a field in MLS listings?

McLovin
Guest
McLovin

“So they take renovations into consideration, at least at some level”

How could they possibly know? If the place hasn’t been completely gutted but has new floors, new paint, new roof, new cabinets and new fixtures (none of which requires a permit) It could add 30% to the cost base of the house.

I think with all indexes or averages on the ground knowledge is the key. From the information shared by the many great posters here we know that things are much worse then the Teranet, HPI or even average price is showing.

Too bad the average person can’t depend on their Realtard (sorry UHS) to give them this information instead of spin and lies.

Turkey
Guest
Turkey

@Not a Realtor says:

Hypothesis

The only good Realtors to you guys are ones who give you numbers. None of you will know what a bottom is even when it’s staring you in the face.

Answer:
August 2012
March 2009

rejected.

Current score: -6