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Condo Program

It is interesting how you have observed the impact a architectural gem can have. Your blog is great. Very valuable information Many.


Two replies from CBO:

Where is the article Canada’s Housing Crash Begins?



Sorry for the inconvenience. The online stories follow a publishing schedule and that story in question was unintentionally released early. It will be available again on Monday.


Don Sutton

Online Managing Editor,
Canadian Business


Hi Ray,

It’s on newsstands everywhere. If you’re looking for it for free online, I’m afraid it’s not there (at least not yet). We’re offering less free content now and will soon be moving to a pay model where only a few articles will be free each month. Thanks for your interest.

Conan Tobias


Pick which response you like.


@YVR2ZRH: I’m not sure if you are actually disagreeing with me. For sure your insurance cost is high due to the high value of your content. My guess is if you are a homeowner, your homeowner insurance would be even higher?


@jesse: Hi Jesse. The comments on the old blog are long gone. Some update to the blogger software ate them a few years ago. But here is a post I culled from the comments at that time: Some words from Cameron We had a visit this afternoon from Cameron Muir in the comments. (At least, someone claiming to be him – from what he says it appears legit to me anyway.) We’ve had a bit of discussion here at VHB about him and we’re happy that he took the time to comment. Here are his five points with my ‘counterpoints’ beneath: CM: 1) CMHC is self-funded, except for the adminstration of federal funds to assist in affordable and assisted housing initiatives. VHB: Yes, I have looked through CMHC’s annual report and you are correct that CMHC takes no subsidies at… Read more »



“it will likely fall one-tenth of a per cent”

Yeah. Likely.


@jesse: Here is something Cam wrote and I responded to:

Cameron Muir, chief economist with the B.C. Real Estate Association, said Gartman’s observation ignores the prevailing economic conditions that brought about past “price breaks,” such as the crushing interest rates of the early 1980s, or the economic stagnation that B.C. experienced in the late 1990s.

“[That] history repeats itself certainly is a truism,” Muir said. “But all the circumstances of history have to repeat.”

Of all the things Cam has said, this one has to rank near the top of the WTF-o-meter. Is he really saying that a crash is not possible unless the exact circumstances of 1981 are repeated? If that is his claim, then it is very silly.

What’s next: ‘prices can’t crash so long as Hall and Oates are not in the top 10.’


@Muff Diver Mike: A couple of comments. The YTD sales for 2012 are likely to be the worst since the 90’s. 2008 was very bad and sales stopped the last 3 months so that may still be worse but we have a very good chance to make it. That being said, the next step in the market will not be sales volume increases caused by liquidity, it will be sales volume increases because the sellers will reduce price to make a sale and this will cause an uptick in volume. It will not be significant but starting from a low base, it is not inconcievable that volumes will be up next year. Remember the forecast is not for higher prices, just higher volumes. On price decrease, first volume decreases, then prices fall and transactions continue to be made. Separately, looking… Read more »


@anonymous That article states: “Four years ago, BC Housing started moving the 224 residents of a social housing project into other subsidized homes.” In fact, the displacements from Little Mountain started over 5 years ago in March 2007 when BC Housing opened the Relocation Office on the site. The fact that a major redevelopment would start off with mass displacement before any consultation with the community (which did not start until 2010–after all but these last few tenants had already been displaced) makes this redevelopment look like it is straight out of the 1950s/60s like urban renewal. This is a BC Liberal privatization gone off the rails. The developer entered into the purchase agreement in Spring 2008–before the Global Financial Crisis that hit later that year in the fall. He paid a very high price for the land (although the… Read more »

Bag it and tag it

@Muff Diver Mike:
It would be interesting to get Cam’s prediction from last year, for this year…

Muff Diver Mike


7.5 increase next year says Scam. What a pile of crap. This guy licks his finger, sticks it up in the air and throws out this number… Zero rationale…


Is it just me or does today feel like we have turned a corner and are about to see things really escalate?

We bears are now the majority for sure, reading te comments on ths article pretty much confirm that there really aren’t any bulls left


A voice of reason

Re: renters Insurance

I would suggest going to market @ renewal if you haven’t done so in awhile. I have about $80k of coverage with Earthquke rider. Was paying $800/yr. but got that knocked down to $445 by changing providers. I work in insurance so yes, I did read the fine print and both policies were pretty much identical. Policy also has rider to cover my grandparent who lives in the basement. I would be happy to refer the broker who assisted me if anyone is interested.



Might be a bit more than inexperience behind the developers delay…just saying


@gokou3: I hate to disagree with Gokou but – – I will tell you that my renters insurance is extortionate. We’re talking over 1,100 per year. (Assets are pretty high thought). I can tell you that when I moved here it was tough to find a company that would rent to tenants with more than 100,000 of contents. I would say this is because in the North American model, you would likely not have accumulated so much in non-real estate assets before you plunked down $50,000 to buy a box in the sky. Remember- this is just the content insurance. When you look at a homeonwer’s policy, you are also insuring structure if you are not strata. If you take that risk out, the cost of the contents insurance is much much less than what you get in a tenant’s… Read more »


“Time to get off the sidelines bears!”

Agree, Facebook all negative articles, let’s get this ball rolling faster


Quoting crea
“It expects the average national home price to rise by just 0.6 per cent this year, to $365,000. And next year, it says it will likely fall one-tenth of a per cent to $364,500, with Ontario and B.C. seeing small price declines while other provinces see modest gains.”


Best place on meth

Remember when US home sales started to fall in 2005?

Then prices tumbled starting in 2006?


It’s our 2006.

604 Receding Gains

@Joe_blown_away: From the article: ““Provincially, overall unit sales are expected to be down 4.4 per cent this year before rising 7.5 per cent in 2013,” said Muir.”

So there we see the REBGV spin strategy: discourage listings and panic by acknowledging a little bit of reality now about the market being off (which is undeniable anyway) and holding the carrot that everything will be better next year so don’t panic. Then they hold their breath and wait until Spring.

The sad part, the psychology of this bubble is so ingrained in locals that they will believe this jive. Unless more things happen to erode this psychology. How can us bears reinforce the current trends in negative sentiment? Any suggestions? Ranting on blogs and voting down trolls is not enough. Time to get off the sidelines bears!

oh oh

Anyone know what 347 East 34th sold for last year? I see someone gave it a redo and is now asking 1,049.000, will be interesting to see what it sells for.

Best place on meth

The National will be profiling the “big chill” in real estate market across Canada the entire week.

Thursday they will be covering Vancouver.

Lead story tonight: http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/TV%20Shows/The%20National/ID/2280540119/

Romeo Jordan

Perhaps Cam smokes his first blunt before his morning coffee?

What else can explain it?

Oh yeah, he’s a PAID shill, I forgot…that said, what else should we expect – the truth? Ha! Fat chance.

Let thousands of families get shackled with a lifetime of debt instead….


A few years ago Cam Muir was commenting on a local blog about Vancouver’s bubble (or lack thereof). Was that here or was it on van-housing.blogspot.com? His exchange with freako was hilarious, was wondering if that exchange could be pulled for public view again.


@Joe_blown_away: From the article: ““Provincially, overall unit sales are expected to be down 4.4 per cent this year before rising 7.5 per cent in 2013,” said Muir.”