Open Topic

Friday Free-for-all!

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225 Comments

It’s that time of the week again, lets do our regular end of the week news roundup and open topic discussion thread for the weekend!

Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

–Doors shutting on first time buyers
–How many realtors is enough?
–Vancouver RE plunges
–Families leave BC
–Housing affordability?
–Moodys warn on Canadian debt
–Sales/list Sept 2010-2011
–Great new source for data
–Toronto sales drop 12.5%
–Kleptocrats flee china
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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[…] think renting it for $5K/month is a good financial move. This is going to be fun to watch.” – an observer at VCI 7 Sep 2012 10:29pm […]

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[…] “My social group is mostly 100k/yr co-workers and 30k/yr friends. Of my 15 co-workers all but me have bought, many in the 2007 mania in Victoria. None will have to sell but all took mortgages for as much as they could get and will be paying out 40% of take home for the next 25-35 years. The 30k/yr friends would love to own, but accept that it’s impossible in this market without moving west out of Victoria and a couple trips through the Colwood crawl usually puts that to rest (for the smart ones anyway). I won’t be buying, I like winter travel and early retirement too much. So the ‘next wave’ of first time buyers in my world at least is when housing drops to where the 30k-40k salary can purchase, a 10% correction would (and has) gone… Read more »

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Anonymous

@Anonymous: “I think the development is called: “The Torch””

Or: ‘Pine Beatle Lodge’

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Anonymous

@Best place on meth: ““6 Story wood frame in Surrey. Can you imagine the noise?”

Can you imagine the flames?”

I think the development is called: “The Torch” 🙂

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HAM Solo

@ Anonymous 198 I hang with a few well connected Vancouver business types and I can tell you that, although it shouldn’t in theory be happening, employment in Vancouver is going to pick up in the short term. The reason is that there are a lot of new construction projects going on, including 6 (count ’em) new commercial highrise towers downtown (we haven’t had a year with more than 2 new towers for a decade). On top of that, although I think there is no chance of the units ever being sold for anywhere near the anticipated prices, there actually are a large number of new residential condos already in construction (especially near transit hubs) compared to the same time last year. Add to that the navy contracts, and, funnily enough, there actually ought to be job growth. At least… Read more »

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VMD

@jesse:
Thanks for the timely post! the bulls and pumpers are touting how the impending QE3 (well, it’s been impending for quite a while) will prevent Vancouver RE from dropping and it might trigger another round of “relentless appreciation”.

With interest rate already at near historically low levels, and with tighter CMHC/OSFI rules, can someone explain in what ways and magnitude a potential QE3 will impact Vancouver/Canadian RE price? Thanks

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VHB

If we get another week like last week, we will be on pace for sub-2008 September sales. Pause and think about that. In the middle of the biggest financial crisis in 75 years, more houses were sold than now. Wow.

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Best place on meth

@McLovin:

“6 Story wood frame in Surrey. Can you imagine the noise?”

Can you imagine the flames?

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Best place on meth

@Yellow Helicopter:

“I have been watching a house at 518 east 1st street, north Vancouver, for a couple of months. It was listed for $895k (insane!) and had progressively dropped to $815k. It’s now gone, and I presume sold, as the owner had moved into a nursing home and so I doubt they would have just taken it off the market. Could anyone please help /
let me know what it sold for?”

Not sold, it was re-listed Friday for $795K.

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McLovin

YLTNboomerang: Yes I guess it has gone on a little long.

I will accept the terms of your 5+(1) brokered peace agreement.

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Just looking...

Random anecdote for you folks:

Was at the in-laws this weekend in Richmond. They had a friend of theirs over who is a well-connected realtor in the Chinese community.

She said nothing priced above assessment value was selling. Prices off 15% from peak.

This is someone who was invited to one of Harper’s trade missions to China, so in a position to know if an influx of HAM was just waiting to be unleashed. Aggressive sellers are driving prices lower to attract the few buyers in the market.

Hopefully this trend continues.
JL

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Yellow Helicopter

– thanks, much appreciated. Totally agree with you about it being overpriced! The realtor told me it had been ‘valued’ earlier this year as part of the senior / her kids assessing her estate, and the number they got was that it was worth $870k. I had already seen the official assessed value via the online site so I just politely nodded. And here we are, months later. Problem is that so many houses in north van have sold above assessed for so long… So am hoping this is finally the turning point. Anyway, also can’t wait for the new assessed values to come out! Thanks again.

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YLTNboomerang

What is the deal between Romeo Jordan and McLovin? Why the hate? McLovin’ what did you do to piss off Romeo? Romeo, why are you animated, a chill pill may be in order.

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YLTNboomerang

@Yellow Helicopter: It re-listed for $795K (V970178). With an assessment of $670,900 it is still way overpriced. It is probably relatives of the senior that are trying to sell however their greed is going to cost them as listing over assessment in this market will never move a property. Speaking of assessed values, I am looking forward to the news reports next year when the next assessments come out and have gone down for the first time in almost 10 years!

My prediction is the place will go for $380,000 which is the proper assessed value I feel.

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ScubaSteve

@logic:
Tsur is such a twat.

Agreed. This guy has his head firmly up his ass. Back in 2009, he claimed that 2010/2011 would be stagnant years for RE, and of course, we know how that went. Now when things are clearly going downhill, he claims the opposite? Is this idiot determined to always be wrong? Seriously what the heck. How can these economists be so blind?

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ScubaSteve

Quattro is the biggest sh!t hole in Surrey. OMG. That 6 storey looks like a dump. I drive by that garbage every week and the whole complex is pure trash. It will end up being the projects of Surrey, guaranteed. It’s right across from a strip club, liquor store and ghetto crack houses.

Even worse is all the signs littering the neighbours with for sale signs. They are only 75% sold out and people start moving in Thursday? That sucks for them. Good luck selling the other 25% in this market. They will lower the prices and screw everyone in the building over.

CRAP HOLE!!!!

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McLovin

RJ : “So, as I said, I dropped into a small handful to see for myself. We (me and my buddy) were the only ones at each of these random stopovers.”

Did you guys roll up on your Big Wheels?

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T

Mill Bay Bound, the price to rent ratio is a tool that can be used to help influence the decision between buying and renting.

Sounds like you just want to rent and are looking for what the market rate is. To do that you just have to find comparables and calculate what the average rent per square ft is.

Markets set price of rent and price. Ratio of the two can help you decide to buy or rent.

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N

“The pattern among Chengdu’s construction cranes is evident across the country. As summer fades into autumn, Beijing is stepping up investment in a bid to rescue the economy, but consumers, businesses and debt-burdened local governments in China are showing little interest in spending money again.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/10/business/global/10iht-yuan10.html?_r=1&hp

The chart on the left gives construction as a percent of GDP in China, the US and Spain. Anyone know what Canada’s is?

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patriotz

@Mill Bay Bound:
“I believe people have posted something like rent if the value of the house is less than 100 times rent?”

Give it a little thought and you will first see that’s backwards. You should rent if price is above a certain multiple, not below it.

As to the multiple 150 is about the historic norm, 100 is really cheap (houses were about that much in the mid-1980’s).

Sounds from your numbers that price/rent is 300 or more. That’s a serious bubble and I don’t think it’s going to stay that way because the Island north of the Malahat is already into a serious bust.

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Devore

@McLovin:

6 Story wood frame in Surrey. Can you imagine the noise?

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/First+story+wood+frame+housing+comes+market/7208943/story.html

I don’t understand how a wood frame construction reduces land costs. Is the province subsidizing as part of this B.C. Wood First Act?

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crashcow

@Keeping An Eye On The Pimps: Just how ridiculous do those 2 clowns sound? To paraphrase your post…

There is no precipitation in Vancouver, declares Sommerville, and as if that wasn’t enough, Muir weighs in.

“I would expect the sunshine to pick up before the end of the year, at least on a seasonally adjusted basis,” Muir said.

“You don’t need an umbrella if there’s no rain,” said Sommerville. “But you can have water falling from the sky and it not be raining.”

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Mill Bay Bound

Could someone please remind me what the price to rent ratio should be?

I believe people have posted something like rent if the value of the house is less than 100 times rent?

Any help would be most appreciated!

I am looking to move to Mill Bay on Vancouver Island, and looking to rent a 3 bedroom house for about 1500 a month, and want to know if that is too much. It seems from a quick search on MLS that 3 bedroom houses are going from 400 to 600k in that area.

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Yellow Helicopter

Hi all,
I have been watching a house at 518 east 1st street, north Vancouver, for a couple of months. It was listed for $895k (insane!) and had progressively dropped to $815k. It’s now gone, and I presume sold, as the owner had moved into a nursing home and so I doubt they would have just taken it off the market. Could anyone please help /
let me know what it sold for? Many thanks!

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