Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again so lets do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend!  Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Inventory starts to climb sharply
‘Vancouver condo crisis’ to hit Calgary?
Pillar of sand and fog
Statscan warned on RE bubble
Selling like a couch on craigslist
Only see a bubble in retrospect?
Digital Domain sinking fast
Rates stay low, good or bad?
Genworth: Don’t wait to buy Toronto
Immigration crackdown causes fraud?
Canadian exports collapse

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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oh oh
Guest
oh oh
4 years 12 days ago

Oh Oh everywhere i look, ‘i drive all over the North Shore Vancouver & Richmond on a daily basis’ all i see is signs going up advertising new developments, balloons galore…

Theres gonna be some deals down the road

Lots of em!

Have a very happy Friday all!

KG
Guest
KG
4 years 12 days ago
Today the world is bedeviled by a modern day equivalent of alchemy. Those that study this modern day equivalent are called economists. Like many alchemists before them economists hold positions of great power and influence. Their words are listened to by world leaders with reverence and an almost fawning adoration. The emergence of economists is significantly more dangerous to the world than Wizards working in dingy laboratories trying to turn iron into gold. Economists are in the driver seat, pedal to the metal, driving us over a cliff in a manner that would make Thelma and Louise proud. The basic… Read more »
Vancouver
Guest
Vancouver
4 years 12 days ago

beginning of month inventory rise that’s all kids!

patriotz
Member
4 years 11 days ago
Housing market weakens, more softening seen European markets remain the weakest, while there were signs of modest improvement in countries such as the United States, the U.K., Australia and China, the Scotiabank report said. But it added that it will likely take considerably more time for a sustainable recovery to emerge in the global market. Stronger job and income growth will be required to generate the consumer purchasing power that is needed to support higher home sales. Scotiabank is missing the boat. What is required to support higher home sales is prices that make sense, as the US now has.… Read more »
patriotz
Member
4 years 11 days ago

Ease those empty-nest blues: Rent out part of your home

So instead of flooding the sale market, seniors can flood the rental market.

Bo Xilai
Guest
Bo Xilai
4 years 11 days ago

@patriotz:

Ease those empty-nest blues: Rent out part of your home

Just what I’d like in roomates… Wrinkly strangers playing Laurence Welk who forget their dentures soaking in my coffee mug…

Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
Guest
Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
4 years 11 days ago

Soon the pimps will replace:

” Vancouver is different, everyone is moving here, and it’s the best place on earth”

With:

Hurry, get in now, there are thousands upon thousands of 20 and 30 something buyers, who are just about to be unleashed onto the market, with their equity rich baby boomer parents help.

If there was a law against bad ethics and greed these bastards would get life in a federal correction facility-at least if I were a judge.

Happy Friday
Guest
Happy Friday
4 years 11 days ago

Can’t wait to see the broken down baby boomers, debt to the eyeballs recent grands, and crazy gambling HAMers crying on GlobalTV and begging for a bail out.

It’s great to see the inventory accelorating! What a wonderful time!

vanpire
Guest
vanpire
4 years 11 days ago

@KG:
I was once told by a very smart guy, that you can in fact turn jut about anything into gold. It simply depends how much money you want to spend in the process…

Dan in Calgary
Guest
Dan in Calgary
4 years 11 days ago

@oh oh, ” …. all i see is signs going up advertising new developments, balloons galore… ”

I predict a bubble forming in the balloon market.

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Guest
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
4 years 11 days ago
I was reading in the newspaper the other day how lumber prices have been down in recent years because of weak demand from the USA given the collapsed housing market there. The article said that prices for lumber should be going up as the US housing market recovers. It’s kind of interesting to ponder this in relation to Canada’s housing market. The boom/bust in housing bubbles has not been in sync between Canada and the US, with the timing of the Canadian bubble lagging USA by about 5 years (USA peaked in 2006, Canada peaked in 2011). But the price… Read more »
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Guest
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
4 years 11 days ago
@Patriotz: Regarding seniors renting out part of their homes to young people, I actually have first-hand experience with this. Several years ago I lived in Toronto for a while. Myself and 3 other young people (all under 23) rented the top two floors of a house from an old Italian lady in the heart of Little Italy. The Italian lady lived on the first floor. It wasn’t like we had our own suite in the house. We just had the top two floors. We shared the same door with her and we could have walked down into her living area… Read more »
Dan in Calgary
Guest
Dan in Calgary
4 years 11 days ago

@Bo Xilai, ‘Wrinkly strangers playing Laurence Welk who forget their dentures soaking in my coffee mug…”

Sorry Bo, although you’re right about the dentures, you’re wrong about Laurence Welk. Most wrinkly boomers would be more familiar with Frank Zappa than Laurence Welk. Welk’s “bubble machine” was the boomers’ parents’ generation. “A-one, an-a-two” and “Wunnerful, Wunnerful!”, lol.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 11 days ago

Here’s a good summary that I don’t see posted yet. Nothing new, but very stark:

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/09/11/canadian-housing-theres-an-obvious-oversupply-problem-in-vancouver-toronto-and-montreal/

Many Franks
Guest
Many Franks
4 years 11 days ago

Even the Courier’s reheating of a Real Estate Weekly press release has gone a little flaccid. In the search for a glimmer of hope they seem to have dimly stumbled onto seasonal variability in listings, but it’s too early to tell.

jesse
Member
4 years 11 days ago
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: A common one these days is taking in a stream of foreign short-stay students. Owners are responsible for room and board, get paid a daily stipend ($28/day I think, going up higher if the student is not of age). You can pick up students on an as-needed basis and you’re only limited on the number of bedrooms. I’ve heard of some craziness here but mostly from landlords with mental problems. The students are generally OK, likely no worse than the kids empty-nesters raised. If empty-nesters have some spare time, need some cash, and don’t mind cooking, that’s a nice… Read more »
jesse
Member
4 years 11 days ago

Ben live chat/debate on Globe and Mail with Eric Lasalles. Ask some good questions.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/great-debate/how-much-of-a-threat-is-household-debt/article4532455/

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
4 years 11 days ago

@jesse:

Yes, those foreign students can be a real cash cow for some.

An unscrupulous homeowner can take in 3 well behaved Korean kids, cram them into various spare areas of the house, bedrooms, basements, attics and whatnot, give them noodle soup twice a day at minimal cost and rake in the profits.

In return the students get a first hand taste of Vancouver culture at its finest.

Win-win.

QEInfinity
Guest
QEInfinity
4 years 11 days ago

enjoy your time while it lasts bears. the printing press around the world are going full tilt! soon the world will be awash in cash and hard assets are going to hyper-inflate!

Mr. Whiteperson
Guest
Mr. Whiteperson
4 years 11 days ago

@Best place on meth: and u can have sex with them too

space889
Member
space889
4 years 11 days ago

Just participated in an AirMiles survey about RE buying intentions, what if prices increased 10% or decreased 20%, my expectations of how much RE prices will rise/fall, interest rates, and effects of the recent mortgage changes by the Fed. I guess we will be reading about the results pretty soon in the papers.

guys
Guest
guys
4 years 11 days ago

i think it’s better to rent than buy. what do u think? let’s talk about it for the next 6 years, ok?

QEDelusion
Guest
QEDelusion
4 years 11 days ago

@QEInfinity:

“enjoy your time while it lasts bears. the printing press around the world are going full tilt! soon the world will be awash in cash and hard assets are going to hyper-inflate!”

Just like how QE1, QE2, and Twist inflated the US real estate market.

AG Sage
Member
4 years 11 days ago

@QEDelusion: Wake me when a single cent of that money ends up in the pockets of consumers, or as a loan to a consumer.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 11 days ago

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: Armchair economics at its finest!

vangrl
Member
vangrl
4 years 11 days ago
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/09/11/canadian-housing-theres-an-obvious-oversupply-problem-in-vancouver-toronto-and-montreal/ a comment on the article: “Just wanted to highlight the credentials of the author for a moment. Who here doesn’t know that Rabidoux is a part-time instructor of psychology at one of the lowest ranked community colleges in Canada? http://www.theglobeandmail.com… http://www.georgiancollege.ca/… I would advise readers to save their energy for discussions undertaken by actual subject matter experts. Just because anyone can start a blog and create charts these days doesn’t mean you should listen. A good rule of thumb might be whether an author has advanced academic qualifications in the subject matter and/or long-term work experience in the area.… Read more »
QEDelusion
Guest
QEDelusion
4 years 11 days ago

@AG Sage:

Exactly. QE3 will cause inflation for food and gas, which will impoverish an already financially stretched population. That will hurt the real estate market more than any small reduction in already historically low mortgage rates.

Dave
Member
4 years 11 days ago

@QEDelusion:

I think it’s different this time for a couple reasons. Firstly, the Fed is going to target mortgage securities, which should cause interest rates to trickle down to consumers. Secondly, the Fed has identified the US housing market as being a source of the slow recovery and stated they were going to monitor the situation closely and deploy monetary tools and asset purchases, as required. Don’t fight the Fed.

JR
Guest
JR
4 years 11 days ago
@Dan in Calgary: There is an absolute ton of developments in progress in Maple Ridge. I’m in absolute astonishment as I see new projects start. They are either really stupid or know their math very well. The amount of inventory that will be going online there in the next two to four months will be staggering. People can say anything they want about home owners staying firm on their prices, but if they have to sell, and a developer sells a new home for less because they have more room to play with, we all know where it goes from… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 11 days ago

@Dave:

I think it’s different this time…

Spoke like a true RE shill.

s
Guest
s
4 years 11 days ago

@Dave

QE is most likely done to weaken the US dollar ultimately so it’ll be easier for them to pay down the debt, the Fed knows the current deficits will wreck the economy. Unemployment I doubt is his real concern, he knows QE hasn’t worked the previous times, so obviously that’s not the game.

Also how does the Fed buying mortgage securities from the US banks affect the Canadian housing situation. It doesn’t.

The FED is driving up inflation making things more expensive for everyone, so it’ll have a negative effect on Canada, I don’t see it helping.

Dave
Member
4 years 11 days ago

@JR:

I’m also seeing a lot of activity out there. More in the works as well.

JR
Guest
JR
4 years 11 days ago

Hey Air Transat has discounted flight to Egypt right now.

Dave
Member
4 years 11 days ago
@s: I don’t agree. Canadian and US interest rates (measured by say a 5 year bond) are almost perfectly correlated. Our markets are so tied together that I believe it does affect us. It’s not about paying down the debt at all. That’s a side issue when you can print money and when you are the most powerful country in the World. They are trying to keep the economy growing so that the unemployment rate drops more quickly. Inflation is secondary to them right now because it has been under control for the last 3 decades. Commodity inflation is good… Read more »
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
Guest
joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
4 years 11 days ago
@anonymous: I gave you a thumbs up because I agree my first post today is armchair economics. I’m not an economist, I can admit that. But can anyone on here who is better qualified in economics than I am address the point I am raising in that post. What are the implications for how Canada’s real estate bubble plays out given that Canada’s timeline lags the US bubble timeline by 5 years? Is there any truth to the statement that low lumber costs (due to US crash) have artificially reduced (subsidized?) input costs for developers in Canada during our bubble?… Read more »
HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
4 years 11 days ago
I think the Fed has re-ignited the hard asset trade with its QE4-evah program. However, if you are liquid and can own gold, or even better gold/silver miners, then you will do far better than tying everything up in a market that is overvalued and overloaded on the offer side (e.g. Vancouver condos). Ironically, the Fed just kicked out one of the last remaining props under the Canadian housing market, which was the low morgage rates available to finance the ponzi palaces. Gov Can 3 year yields just took out a 4 month high. On top of that the C$… Read more »
QEDelusion
Guest
QEDelusion
4 years 11 days ago

@Dave:

Targeting Mortgage Securities or Treasuries does not make any difference as they are correlated.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts
4 years 11 days ago

@s: “QE is most likely done to weaken the US dollar ultimately so it’ll be easier for them to pay down the debt,”

Countries don’t always pay down their debt – they often pay just the interest, and let inflation eat away at the principal.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
4 years 11 days ago

@Dave:

“There is a reason our dollar went up after Ben gave his speech.”

Our dollar didn’t go up, the US dollar went down.

Printing money destroys its value.

Manna from heaven
Guest
Manna from heaven
4 years 11 days ago

From today’s Financial Post

“Why it’s better to rent than buy”

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/09/14/why-its-better-to-rent-than-buy/

Crikey
Guest
Crikey
4 years 11 days ago
@jesse: “I’ve heard of some craziness here but mostly from landlords with mental problems.” I had a chance to speak to a couple of adults who went to t “homestay” where only one woman lived by herself…plus the six homestay students she would take in at a time. Dinner? Mac&cheese, with Tang (juice crystals) for beverage. Every. Single. Night. No joke. LOL. Then there’s another student who did a homestay near 49th and Main whose “private room” consisted of half of the living room, with a poorly fitted curtain draped in the middle for her “privacy”. She could constantly clearly… Read more »
gokou3
Guest
gokou3
4 years 11 days ago

@Dave: “Commodity inflation is good for Canada. There is a reason our dollar went up after Ben gave his speech.”

On the flip side, all the remaining non-commodity exports are f**ked.

oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2
4 years 11 days ago

@Manna from heaven: Here’s a great post on the same topic, but focused on the USA. If this were Canada instead, the map would be a sea of red and orange circles, with Vancouver’s circle being blood red!

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/09/time-to-buy.html

vangrl
Member
vangrl
4 years 11 days ago
stuff like this that makes me never want to buy in a strata condo building ever again, talk about being screwed over, crap like this happened all the time when I was on council and had to o’k bills to pay. e-mail from a friend: “omg Kone elevator just sent a bill for $1032 for a 22 minute call. It was an overtime call for a stuck elevator that couldn’t wait till Monday because one owner insisted we call right away. They charged us 2 hours travelling time at $350 an hour (even though they’ve written 1.5 hrs, must have… Read more »
gokou3
Guest
gokou3
4 years 11 days ago

@Vote Down The Facts: “Countries don’t always pay down their debt – they often pay just the interest, and let inflation eat away at the principal.”

US debts has been growing at ~10% for the past few years. Howz the inflation eating away principal work out? Did prices increase 10% annually for the past few years?

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting
4 years 11 days ago

“Little children are sleeping in a bedroom with no window, no way to get out, no fire alarms. That has got to stop.”

http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/401611–mayor-of-delta-cracking-down-on-illegal-secondary-suites#Comments

The Mayor of Delta is cracking down on illegal suites. Fines start at $500…per day.

Illegal suites are not only the worst kind of housing, but help increase real estate prices. A crackdown will undermine land values.

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts
4 years 11 days ago

@gokou3: “S debts has been growing at ~10% for the past few years. Howz the inflation eating away principal work out? Did prices increase 10% annually for the past few years?”

It’s a long-term proposition. If you bought a $1000 10yr T-bill today, you’d get your $1000 returned in 2012. How much buying power would $1000 have then, compared to today?

Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts
4 years 11 days ago

@Vote Down The Facts:

I meant 2022, not 2012.

gokou3
Guest
gokou3
4 years 11 days ago

@Vote Down The Facts: Show me a long-term chart where you see US inflation outrun US debt. You can’t, one reason being that debt/GDP ratio is at all-time high.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
4 years 11 days ago

@gokou3: “Show me a long-term chart where you see US inflation outrun US debt. You can’t, one reason being that debt/GDP ratio is at all-time high.”

Yes, I know I can’t – because the US is issuing new debt faster than inflation could possibly erode it.

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