Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again so lets do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend!  Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

-Inventory starts to climb sharply
-‘Vancouver condo crisis’ to hit Calgary?
-Pillar of sand and fog
-Statscan warned on RE bubble
-Selling like a couch on craigslist
-Only see a bubble in retrospect?
-Digital Domain sinking fast
-Rates stay low, good or bad?
-Genworth: Don’t wait to buy Toronto
-Immigration crackdown causes fraud?
-Canadian exports collapse

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

268 Responses to “Friday Free-for-all!”

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    Oh Oh everywhere i look, ‘i drive all over the North Shore Vancouver & Richmond on a daily basis’ all i see is signs going up advertising new developments, balloons galore…

    Theres gonna be some deals down the road

    Lots of em!

    Have a very happy Friday all!

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    Today the world is bedeviled by a modern day equivalent of alchemy. Those that study this modern day equivalent are called economists. Like many alchemists before them economists hold positions of great power and influence. Their words are listened to by world leaders with reverence and an almost fawning adoration. The emergence of economists is significantly more dangerous to the world than Wizards working in dingy laboratories trying to turn iron into gold. Economists are in the driver seat, pedal to the metal, driving us over a cliff in a manner that would make Thelma and Louise proud.

    The basic alchemy that economists are preaching to the world is that we can keep borrowing more money and printing more money to get our way out of the debt crisis. This theory, like the obsession of turning iron into gold is by any measure of common sense, impossible, stupid, dangerous and absurd. However like any good ‘con job’, the leaders and the general population are a perfect ‘mark’ because they desperately want to believe the myth. The alternative is to accept that developed countries and their baby boomers are going to have to endure years of hard times and a lower standard of living while global debt is paid down, defaulted on and deleveraged.

    Economist or Alconomist

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/26864/economist-or-alconomist

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    beginning of month inventory rise that’s all kids!

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    Housing market weakens, more softening seen

    European markets remain the weakest, while there were signs of modest improvement in countries such as the United States, the U.K., Australia and China, the Scotiabank report said.

    But it added that it will likely take considerably more time for a sustainable recovery to emerge in the global market. Stronger job and income growth will be required to generate the consumer purchasing power that is needed to support higher home sales.

    Scotiabank is missing the boat. What is required to support higher home sales is prices that make sense, as the US now has. The problem in other markets is simply that house prices are still much too high.

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    Ease those empty-nest blues: Rent out part of your home

    So instead of flooding the sale market, seniors can flood the rental market.

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    @patriotz:

    Ease those empty-nest blues: Rent out part of your home

    Just what I’d like in roomates… Wrinkly strangers playing Laurence Welk who forget their dentures soaking in my coffee mug…

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    Keeping An Eye On The Pimps Says:
    7

    Soon the pimps will replace:

    ” Vancouver is different, everyone is moving here, and it’s the best place on earth”

    With:

    Hurry, get in now, there are thousands upon thousands of 20 and 30 something buyers, who are just about to be unleashed onto the market, with their equity rich baby boomer parents help.

    If there was a law against bad ethics and greed these bastards would get life in a federal correction facility-at least if I were a judge.

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    Happy Friday Says:
    8

    Can’t wait to see the broken down baby boomers, debt to the eyeballs recent grands, and crazy gambling HAMers crying on GlobalTV and begging for a bail out.

    It’s great to see the inventory accelorating! What a wonderful time!

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    @KG:
    I was once told by a very smart guy, that you can in fact turn jut about anything into gold. It simply depends how much money you want to spend in the process…

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    Dan in Calgary Says:
    10

    @oh oh, ” …. all i see is signs going up advertising new developments, balloons galore… ”

    I predict a bubble forming in the balloon market.

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    joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
    11

    I was reading in the newspaper the other day how lumber prices have been down in recent years because of weak demand from the USA given the collapsed housing market there. The article said that prices for lumber should be going up as the US housing market recovers.

    It’s kind of interesting to ponder this in relation to Canada’s housing market. The boom/bust in housing bubbles has not been in sync between Canada and the US, with the timing of the Canadian bubble lagging USA by about 5 years (USA peaked in 2006, Canada peaked in 2011). But the price of home construction inputs like lumber follows the US timeline because US is such a larger market than Canada. That means while Canada’s bubble was growing (2006-11), prices of lumber should have been low because of crashed USA housing bubble. This is the opposite of what should happen during a boom, inputs prices should go up with higher demand. So in effect, we might be able to say that the Canadian housing bubble was partly subsidized by low lumber costs. Now that the Canadian bubble is crashing, while the USA housing market is recovering, lumber prices will be going back up. This means developers in Canada will face a double whammy of both lower returns (ie. lower housing prices) and higher lumber costs.

    I actually have no numbers to back this up. It just popped into my head when I read a newspaper article saying lumber prices have been down due to USA housing crash but should be going back up again soon as USA housing market recovers. I don’t actually know how deeply lumber prices went down in recent years. I also don’t know how true it is that the USA housing market is recovering. But it does make you think, if the US housing market does start a very strong recovery, this could lead to significant increase in demand for Canadian lumber and this may actually help the economy here, creating new jobs and help our prevent the Canadian housing bubble from completely crashing.

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    joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
    12

    @Patriotz:

    Regarding seniors renting out part of their homes to young people, I actually have first-hand experience with this. Several years ago I lived in Toronto for a while. Myself and 3 other young people (all under 23) rented the top two floors of a house from an old Italian lady in the heart of Little Italy. The Italian lady lived on the first floor. It wasn’t like we had our own suite in the house. We just had the top two floors. We shared the same door with her and we could have walked down into her living area if we wanted to.

    This was not a very good arrangement. I remember being woken up early in the morning almost everyday by her loud (and I mean LOUD) phone conversations in Italian. It seemed like she was having a passionate and loud phone debate about Italian politics almost every morning. She was always snooping on us. We didn’t have a working stove. We probably weren’t the easist to live with either. She would get upset when we came in late at night, when we brought people home from bars, and when we’d smoke on her patio outside (at least we weren’t smoking inside). This was the home she raised her children in but they were all grown up and she was quite old.

    20-somethings and empty-nester seniors do not make good room-mates together, esp. 20-somethings in Toronto for the first time in their lives who want to party every night. If you’re going to rent out part of your house, I think you should make a completely separate suite, like a basement suite, with a separate entrance.

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    Dan in Calgary Says:
    13

    @Bo Xilai, ‘Wrinkly strangers playing Laurence Welk who forget their dentures soaking in my coffee mug…”

    Sorry Bo, although you’re right about the dentures, you’re wrong about Laurence Welk. Most wrinkly boomers would be more familiar with Frank Zappa than Laurence Welk. Welk’s “bubble machine” was the boomers’ parents’ generation. “A-one, an-a-two” and “Wunnerful, Wunnerful!”, lol.

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    Anonymous Says:
    14

    Here’s a good summary that I don’t see posted yet. Nothing new, but very stark:

    http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/09/11/canadian-housing-theres-an-obvious-oversupply-problem-in-vancouver-toronto-and-montreal/

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    Many Franks Says:
    15

    Even the Courier’s reheating of a Real Estate Weekly press release has gone a little flaccid. In the search for a glimmer of hope they seem to have dimly stumbled onto seasonal variability in listings, but it’s too early to tell.

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    @joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: A common one these days is taking in a stream of foreign short-stay students. Owners are responsible for room and board, get paid a daily stipend ($28/day I think, going up higher if the student is not of age). You can pick up students on an as-needed basis and you’re only limited on the number of bedrooms.

    I’ve heard of some craziness here but mostly from landlords with mental problems. The students are generally OK, likely no worse than the kids empty-nesters raised. If empty-nesters have some spare time, need some cash, and don’t mind cooking, that’s a nice supplement for OAS/CPP.

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    Ben live chat/debate on Globe and Mail with Eric Lasalles. Ask some good questions.
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/great-debate/how-much-of-a-threat-is-household-debt/article4532455/

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    Best place on meth Says:
    18

    @jesse:

    Yes, those foreign students can be a real cash cow for some.

    An unscrupulous homeowner can take in 3 well behaved Korean kids, cram them into various spare areas of the house, bedrooms, basements, attics and whatnot, give them noodle soup twice a day at minimal cost and rake in the profits.

    In return the students get a first hand taste of Vancouver culture at its finest.

    Win-win.

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    QEInfinity Says:
    19

    enjoy your time while it lasts bears. the printing press around the world are going full tilt! soon the world will be awash in cash and hard assets are going to hyper-inflate!

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    Mr. Whiteperson Says:
    20

    @Best place on meth: and u can have sex with them too

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    Just participated in an AirMiles survey about RE buying intentions, what if prices increased 10% or decreased 20%, my expectations of how much RE prices will rise/fall, interest rates, and effects of the recent mortgage changes by the Fed. I guess we will be reading about the results pretty soon in the papers.

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    i think it’s better to rent than buy. what do u think? let’s talk about it for the next 6 years, ok?

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    QEDelusion Says:
    23

    @QEInfinity:

    “enjoy your time while it lasts bears. the printing press around the world are going full tilt! soon the world will be awash in cash and hard assets are going to hyper-inflate!”

    Just like how QE1, QE2, and Twist inflated the US real estate market.

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    @QEDelusion: Wake me when a single cent of that money ends up in the pockets of consumers, or as a loan to a consumer.

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    @joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: Armchair economics at its finest!

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    http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/09/11/canadian-housing-theres-an-obvious-oversupply-problem-in-vancouver-toronto-and-montreal/

    a comment on the article:
    “Just wanted to highlight the credentials of the author for a moment. Who here doesn’t know that Rabidoux is a part-time instructor of psychology at one of the lowest ranked community colleges in Canada?

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com

    http://www.georgiancollege.ca/

    I would advise readers to save their energy for discussions undertaken by actual subject matter experts. Just because anyone can start a blog and create charts these days doesn’t mean you should listen.

    A good rule of thumb might be whether an author has advanced academic qualifications in the subject matter and/or long-term work experience in the area. I’m not taking medical advice from my accountant, but I am asking him about accounting.”

    wtf, a Ben basher? that is not cool at all

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    QEDelusion Says:
    27

    @AG Sage:

    Exactly. QE3 will cause inflation for food and gas, which will impoverish an already financially stretched population. That will hurt the real estate market more than any small reduction in already historically low mortgage rates.

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    @QEDelusion:

    I think it’s different this time for a couple reasons. Firstly, the Fed is going to target mortgage securities, which should cause interest rates to trickle down to consumers. Secondly, the Fed has identified the US housing market as being a source of the slow recovery and stated they were going to monitor the situation closely and deploy monetary tools and asset purchases, as required. Don’t fight the Fed.

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    @Dan in Calgary: There is an absolute ton of developments in progress in Maple Ridge. I’m in absolute astonishment as I see new projects start. They are either really stupid or know their math very well. The amount of inventory that will be going online there in the next two to four months will be staggering. People can say anything they want about home owners staying firm on their prices, but if they have to sell, and a developer sells a new home for less because they have more room to play with, we all know where it goes from there.

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    @Dave:

    I think it’s different this time…

    Spoke like a true RE shill.

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    @Dave

    QE is most likely done to weaken the US dollar ultimately so it’ll be easier for them to pay down the debt, the Fed knows the current deficits will wreck the economy. Unemployment I doubt is his real concern, he knows QE hasn’t worked the previous times, so obviously that’s not the game.

    Also how does the Fed buying mortgage securities from the US banks affect the Canadian housing situation. It doesn’t.

    The FED is driving up inflation making things more expensive for everyone, so it’ll have a negative effect on Canada, I don’t see it helping.

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    @JR:

    I’m also seeing a lot of activity out there. More in the works as well.

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    Hey Air Transat has discounted flight to Egypt right now.

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    @s:

    I don’t agree. Canadian and US interest rates (measured by say a 5 year bond) are almost perfectly correlated. Our markets are so tied together that I believe it does affect us.

    It’s not about paying down the debt at all. That’s a side issue when you can print money and when you are the most powerful country in the World. They are trying to keep the economy growing so that the unemployment rate drops more quickly. Inflation is secondary to them right now because it has been under control for the last 3 decades.

    Commodity inflation is good for Canada. There is a reason our dollar went up after Ben gave his speech.

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    joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
    35

    @anonymous:

    I gave you a thumbs up because I agree my first post today is armchair economics. I’m not an economist, I can admit that.

    But can anyone on here who is better qualified in economics than I am address the point I am raising in that post. What are the implications for how Canada’s real estate bubble plays out given that Canada’s timeline lags the US bubble timeline by 5 years? Is there any truth to the statement that low lumber costs (due to US crash) have artificially reduced (subsidized?) input costs for developers in Canada during our bubble? Do you see the US recovery starting before the Canadian recovery? Will that mean rising lumber costs due to US growth will have a negative effect on developers in Canada when they are already suffering due to lower real estate prices? I think what I am saying is logical in theory although not backed by empirical analysis.

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    I think the Fed has re-ignited the hard asset trade with its QE4-evah program. However, if you are liquid and can own gold, or even better gold/silver miners, then you will do far better than tying everything up in a market that is overvalued and overloaded on the offer side (e.g. Vancouver condos).

    Ironically, the Fed just kicked out one of the last remaining props under the Canadian housing market, which was the low morgage rates available to finance the ponzi palaces. Gov Can 3 year yields just took out a 4 month high. On top of that the C$ has just risen 3c vs the US. So the whole “stimulus” program is rather unstimulating to Canadian housing. To a degree, people might cash out gains in stocks to buy more properties, but I doubt it.

    Kind of the mirror image of the Canadian housing market’s resilience to the collapse in the US through 2009-2011.

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    QEDelusion Says:
    37

    @Dave:

    Targeting Mortgage Securities or Treasuries does not make any difference as they are correlated.

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    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    38

    @s: “QE is most likely done to weaken the US dollar ultimately so it’ll be easier for them to pay down the debt,”

    Countries don’t always pay down their debt – they often pay just the interest, and let inflation eat away at the principal.

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    Best place on meth Says:
    39

    @Dave:

    “There is a reason our dollar went up after Ben gave his speech.”

    Our dollar didn’t go up, the US dollar went down.

    Printing money destroys its value.

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    Manna from heaven Says:
    40

    From today’s Financial Post

    “Why it’s better to rent than buy”

    http://business.financialpost.com/2012/09/14/why-its-better-to-rent-than-buy/

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    @jesse:
    “I’ve heard of some craziness here but mostly from landlords with mental problems.”

    I had a chance to speak to a couple of adults who went to t “homestay” where only one woman lived by herself…plus the six homestay students she would take in at a time. Dinner? Mac&cheese, with Tang (juice crystals) for beverage. Every. Single. Night. No joke. LOL.

    Then there’s another student who did a homestay near 49th and Main whose “private room” consisted of half of the living room, with a poorly fitted curtain draped in the middle for her “privacy”. She could constantly clearly hear the family sitting in the living watching TV while she enjoyed her “private room” and her Canadian family experience. LOL.

    There’s something very wrong when owners of million dollar home are so desperate for cash that they have to resort to this kind of nonsense.

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    @Dave: “Commodity inflation is good for Canada. There is a reason our dollar went up after Ben gave his speech.”

    On the flip side, all the remaining non-commodity exports are f**ked.

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    oneangryslav2 Says:
    43

    @Manna from heaven: Here’s a great post on the same topic, but focused on the USA. If this were Canada instead, the map would be a sea of red and orange circles, with Vancouver’s circle being blood red!

    http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/09/time-to-buy.html

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    stuff like this that makes me never want to buy in a strata condo building ever again, talk about being screwed over, crap like this happened all the time when I was on council and had to o’k bills to pay.

    e-mail from a friend:

    “omg Kone elevator just sent a bill for $1032 for a 22 minute call.

    It was an overtime call for a stuck elevator that couldn’t wait till Monday because one owner insisted we call right away.

    They charged us 2 hours travelling time at $350 an hour (even though they’ve written 1.5 hrs, must have rounded it up) plus mileage of $45 and taxes of almost a hundred! and the rest was 1/2 hour labour at $350 an hour.

    unbelievable”

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    @Vote Down The Facts: “Countries don’t always pay down their debt – they often pay just the interest, and let inflation eat away at the principal.”

    US debts has been growing at ~10% for the past few years. Howz the inflation eating away principal work out? Did prices increase 10% annually for the past few years?

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    Patiently Waiting Says:
    46

    “Little children are sleeping in a bedroom with no window, no way to get out, no fire alarms. That has got to stop.”

    http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/401611–mayor-of-delta-cracking-down-on-illegal-secondary-suites#Comments

    The Mayor of Delta is cracking down on illegal suites. Fines start at $500…per day.

    Illegal suites are not only the worst kind of housing, but help increase real estate prices. A crackdown will undermine land values.

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    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    47

    @gokou3: “S debts has been growing at ~10% for the past few years. Howz the inflation eating away principal work out? Did prices increase 10% annually for the past few years?”

    It’s a long-term proposition. If you bought a $1000 10yr T-bill today, you’d get your $1000 returned in 2012. How much buying power would $1000 have then, compared to today?

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    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    48

    @Vote Down The Facts:

    I meant 2022, not 2012.

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    @Vote Down The Facts: Show me a long-term chart where you see US inflation outrun US debt. You can’t, one reason being that debt/GDP ratio is at all-time high.

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    @gokou3: “Show me a long-term chart where you see US inflation outrun US debt. You can’t, one reason being that debt/GDP ratio is at all-time high.”

    Yes, I know I can’t – because the US is issuing new debt faster than inflation could possibly erode it.

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    Canadian 5 year bond yield heading up http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GCAN5YR:IND

    on higher inflation expectations?
    ->harder to qualify for mortgages

    Effect of QE2 on Canadian bond yields:
    http://takloo.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/image001.png

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    USA CREDITWORTHINESS DOWNGRADED TODAY! Says:
    52

    Creditworthiness of USA DOWNGRADED!

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/49037337

    BTW, this is a question to all you hard asset types out there who don’t have a penny after your ponzi palace rents cover the mortgage: How is it that you are going to participate in hard commodity asset appreciation? You’ve got no cash collateral to buy metals, gas, oil, agriculture. Please tell us uninformed housing bears what broker is allowing you to put up your house(s) as collateral instead of cash? No more HELOCS remember…

    If you think you house is going to keep going up under an inflationary scenario, think again. Your house has already had it’s run relative to wages, interest rates, and gold. Wages, interest rates, and gold will outpace your house and you will have no collateral to participate!

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    #48 @gokou3: “Show me a long-term chart where you see US inflation outrun US debt.”

    From 1933-1953 the total amount of debt in the US was reduced from 300% of GDP to about 150% of GDP, first through defaults, then through war spending.

    http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/01/03/the-debtwatch-manifesto/

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    Anonymous Says:
    54

    Signs of progress in NVan

    Price Dates
    Current Price $868,000 Listed Feb 15/12
    Original Price $1,000,000 Entered Feb 17/12
    Jul 17/12 $898,888 Status Chgd Sep 13/12
    Jun 25/12 $930,000 Sale Date Sep 4/12
    Sale Price $840,000

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    @rp1: I didn’t look into the entire article in detail but it looks like you were linking to a debt/GDP chart? I was asking VDTF to present a debt and inflation over time chart.

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    Vancouver Says:
    56

    I just heard the board’s sales report person is done for the day. Expect low sales volume today and triple digits all next week.

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    Vancouver Says:
    57

    OMG another QE is apparently going to tack on another 20% upside for Canadian real estate prices. I can’t believe this. We will never be able to afford to buy in Canada. Only the rich will get richer. The rest of us are screwed.

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    @gokou3:
    There was a massive decline in US debt/GDP from the end of WWII to the beginning of the Vietnam War. The economy saw two decades of almost uninterrupted growth and most years had budget surpluses.

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    Anonymous Says:
    59

    @Vancouver:

    the person left cause there were no more sales to report

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    OMG I forgot my meds for my bipolar!
    I am so sorry guys, deep inside I am burning in jealousy of you bears’ cash and liquid investment. How I wish I have spare cash to invest in stocks now! My house in Richmond is depreciating by $10000/month!

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    curious lurker Says:
    61

    @joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs:
    Regarding living with seniors.

    I did that too when I was on a co-op term at one time.
    I had a dutch landlady. Nice enough lady but crazy rules. Basically she lived on the mainfloor and let gave us the bedrooms upstairs as well as the basement. (There was one tv in there, and the laundry machines) Of course no dryer so we would all hang our laundry in the basement.

    There were two of us living in her house, and we would each get one shelf in the fridge. She was cheap so the heat was barely on. (this was winter in Ottawa.)

    She was off on vacation for 1 week once and we turned the heat way up. I wonder how much difference it made on her bill that month. heh.

    Some of you may remember that I posted a few months back that I was relocating to the US.

    It sure is different down here. I feel bad to be missing out on what appears to be a spectacular meltdown just getting rolling up there in Vancouver. But hey, I gotta live right? And living in the USA is pretty darn good. gas is cheap. groceries are cheap, and houses? well they are fairly valued at worst. undervalued if you’re lucky.

    I ain’t ‘throwing money away on rent’ no more. It’s paradise for those with savings here in the USA. And that’s something to look forward to in BC. I’d guess maybe 4-5 years from now, maybe?

    The one challenge with relocation is credit. but hey, us Canadian renters don’t really need great credit with all the savings we have from the landlords subsidizing us right? :)

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    MORTAGE = DEATH PLEDGE Says:
    62

    @Vancouver:

    OMG I forgot my meds for my bipolar!
    I am so sorry guys, deep inside I am burning in jealousy of you bears’ cash and liquid investment. How I wish I have spare cash to invest in stocks now! My house in Richmond is depreciating by $10000/month!

    Good luck getting your paper profits out. You won’t even be able to get a HELOC, never mind ever selling. RE was a good trade. Unfortunately for morons like you, you’ll never be able to trade anything else or even close the position on your one good lifetime trade in RE. Good luck and remember to take your meds.

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    @Vancouver:

    I remember when “triple digit” sales days weren’t considered something to aspire to or crow about. Standards have changed pretty fast.

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    Anonymous Says:
    64

    @joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: Well, thanks for the thumbs up. This was indeed fine armchair economics and made good logical sense (if one accepts all your assumptions and ignores the thousands of other variables involved). If you sensed a touch of sarcasm its because I think your time would be better spent playing with your kids or sipping a martini on the balcony, or tending your garden, og going for a bike ride etc. rather than pondering and speculating about very complex and delicate economic relationships. Your logic makes sense in isolation, but in reality a thousand other factors could throw it totally off, so why bother to think about it.

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    Island Bound Says:
    65

    I am in the midst of moving to a community on the Island that has experienced over development, and it seems that every street as a house for sale (in a town of 3000 this is pretty scary).

    We are looking at making an agreement with a developer to rent the house for a year. It appears that he has too many houses on the books and wants some income. He tried the whole “rent to own” but I said that that we would only rent (since the market there is getting hammered).

    What are my rights? I was told by another realtor that if I sign a lease, they cannot sell the house (especially if stipulated in the lease). However, a friend of mine went through the process of having his Vancouver condo sold while on a lease, and what they did was that 4 months before the lease was to expire, the owner was allowed to show the place. So he had the people coming through the home for 4 months and then on the date the lease expired he was to be out, and was giving one month’s notice.

    And if I break the lease, I just lose my security deposit right? Can they come after us?

    Any advice on avoiding a situation where I am paying the realtor while he is trying to sell it would be most appreciated!

    As I said, the entire community seems to be for sale so I am not worry about houses being sold like hot cakes. And before anyone says why move there, we are moving to the community because it splits our commute distances and times.

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    Island Bound Says:
    66

    Sorry

    …so he had the people coming through the home for 4 months and then on the date the lease expired he was to be out, and was given one month’s rent

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    Anonymous Says:
    67

    @Island Bound: @Island Bound: Generally there is nothing stopping the owner putting the house up for sale during the tenancy, but you would still be entitled to stay until the end of your lease and the new owner would be subject to the same rules re. terminating the lease as the former owner. As for showing the house, the owner would have to give you at least 24 hours notice before entering, and he can’t enter before 8 am or after 9 pm. You could try to get a “no sale” or “no showing” clause into the lease agreement. If the owner says no to that, then you know what to expect and should probably rent somewhere else.

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    Island bound — the BC Landlord Tenant Act has a nice overview of your rights. It is here:
    http://www.rto.gov.bc.ca/
    Basically, no you cannot restrict the developers rights to sell the property. But you are entitled to two months notice and one months rent if the new owner wants to move in.
    The landlord may show the unit by giving you 24 hours notice. If you feel this is being taken advantage of you can try the dispute resolution mechanism. Or you can agree to a schedule of visits in a lease. You are entitled to reasonable quiet enjoyment of the unit. If the landlord does not provide this they are in contravention of ANY lease, regardless of the cause. This provides you with many rights, including that the landlord pays the cost of the move.
    And finally no, if you break the lease, the landlord can sue you to receive lost income that he would have earned had you kept to the lease.
    In my experience, most amateur landlords have no idea of what the Act says.

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    Vancouver Says:
    69

    Someone keeps using my name!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Vancouver Says:
    70

    I wish I had spare cash to buy Canadian real estate.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Bull! Bull! Bull! Says:
    71

    Market is going to crash any day now! This isn’t 2008 all over again, this time it’s different!!!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    LazyCanadian Says:
    72

    @shriller: The landlord can only enter 24 hours after the tenant received the notice. The method the landlord serves the document changes when it counts as being received. For example, if the landlord puts the notice on your door it is not counted as being received by the tenant until 3 days later.

    See section 90

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    @patriotz: I knew this, but that’s not the issue I had with VTFD.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @LazyCanadian — fair enough point albeit semantic. It’s all at the site to which I included the link.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Island Bound Says:
    75

    Thanks everyone for letting me know! I really appreciate it – I love this blog and all the shared insights and knowledge.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    3 townhouses in Richmond offering tantalizing deals with every townhouse sold!

    Honda Civic anyone?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Island Bound Says:
    77

    One more question – I am on a month to month tenancy agreement and have been for years.

    If I fail to give one months notice and give say two weeks, what is the worse that can happen? Is it simply that they keep the security deposit and won’t give a good reference, or can them come after me in court like a fixed term year lease?

    Thanks!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @ Island bound — I believe you will owe them a month’s rent. The security deposit is a bit different — it is not security for the rent but for the condition of the property. But I’m pretty sure they can withhold it for rent non-payment. However, the right answer is in the Act.

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    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    79

    @gokou3: “I was asking VDTF to present a debt and inflation over time chart.”

    I don’t know why you’d ask for such a thing – it makes no sense to do so as the amount of debt is constantly being added to, especially so over the past few years. If a government were to stop borrowing then of course their debt burden would reduce over time due to inflation. Because that’s how inflation is defined.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Happy 19K Everyone!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    81

    @VMD: “3 townhouses in Richmond offering tantalizing deals with every townhouse sold!”

    I remember when these units first went up for sale. They had a realtor’s sign hanging off each unit facing the hwy, and quite literally every other sign (ie: either the odd or even units) immediately had a “Sold” sticker affixed. Not too conspicuous, right?

    Since then, the signs have fallen (wind storms, or…?) and been resurrected with varying numbers of “sold” stickers.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    CanuckDownUnder Says:
    82

    Once in a while an article comes along and just triggers a moment of clarity. Now it makes perfect sense that the Vancouver market is dead, it’s because there’s new wave of HAM invading the Sydney market! Cashed up Asians have rediscovered the Harbour City:


    Sydney Real Estate Revival

    The more cynical observer might suggest the stabilisation of prices has more to do with the RBA cutting rates by 125bp over the past year but the idea of Chinese hordes invading Australian shores with suitcases of cash is more sexy. Could there be a better lead news story to print on inspection day?

    This realtor blurb is the best: “Rents were rising and there was a fundamental undersupply of property in the market. The identical thing is happening and we’re at the beginning of a five-year cycle.”

    Gee, I thought sales were at levels last seen in the late 1990s while supply is just off the all-time high set last year. And if we were to move today we would easily find an equivalent place for lower rent. It’s not like we live right near the Sydney suburb with the highest proportion of Chinese-Australians. Oh wait, we do.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @VMD:
    An hour later,now it’s 5 units offering new civics.

    would be amusing to see the whole neighborhood driving the same vehicle, but perhaps in a couple more months the deals will be upgraded to more mainstream-Richmond vehicles like X5’s and ML350’s

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    New Listings 264
    Price Changes 137
    Sold Listings 47
    TI:19099

    Party on people ;)

    http://www.paulboenisch@gmail.com

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    85

    Bull! Bull! Bull! = Current score – 50

    There, I’ve given Bull a head start.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @VMD:
    Aren’t the lenders going to deduct the FMV of the Civic to get the actual sale price of the property for financing purposes, which means buyers would have to put down 5% down plus the price of the Civic?

    I’m sure it would make a dandy excuse for CMHC to disallow an insurance claim later if they don’t.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @paulb:

    49 sales and we power through 19k – must be this godawful weather we’re having.

    Happy Friday people!

    Time to crack a cold one!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    oneangryslav2 Says:
    88

    @paulb: VHB, crank up the Excel spreadsheet! MOI projections for the end-of-month must be back over 12, I think.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    89

    @PaulB

    Wow….I’ve been saying the decline will take 3-5 years to play out but the speed in which the market has grinded to a hault is shocking. 49 sales. This must be a record low for September? Wish more data was available on real estate.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    90

    @paulb Lynn valley listing MLS® V971564

    Sorry to see you had to relist that for about the fourth time now.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    We just had a ripping net inventory gain of 1,000 in 8 days! At this pace of 125/day, we should reach 20k in 7 days. Sep still has 10 business days so its very doable!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    92

    47 sales, not 49, 47! Unbelievable!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    93

    September on pace for 1486 sales.

    MOI using those sales is 12.85.

    Happy 19K everyone, 20K up next!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    I bet the nice weather we have had lately has been a positive effect on sales, just imagine a rainy week, we would have zero sales!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Jim ready to act

    “We were concerned about the level of indebtedness related to residential housing, including condominiums, [so] four times we intervened in the mortgage insurance market in the last four years.

    Like you didn’t intervene in the previous two years?

    And it is working. Even the Toronto and Vancouver markets have calmed. This is a good thing. There is a tranquillity in the market now that is desirable.”

    The sound of silence.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @paulb: BREAK OUT THE STRIPPERS AND COKE!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    ScubaSteve Says:
    97

    Link to updated stats
    http://i46.tinypic.com/2ahtnkn.gif

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    98

    @ScubaSteve: Hi Scuba, for Sep 13, 2012 I think you used HFHC’s sales for all lower mainland at 131 instead of Paul B’s number of 91? Thanks for the link – Fantastic!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    HAPPY 19K PARTY EVERYONE!!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    HoppyFroddy Says:
    100

    It’s great that we have finally reached 19k, I can’t remember the last time inventory was at that level! This is truley an exceptional day!~

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @paulb: OMFG, I’ll have to move back to Vancouver sonner than I thought…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Aaron Chipman Says:
    102

    My uncle “Dave” has gone over the deep end again.

    We haven’t seen him this bad since the days of Freako, Tulip, and Boombust.

    At the office he is logged on every computer.
    He has purchased 5 more used desk tops for home, and spends every waking moment commenting on RE blogs and boards.

    This can’t be true he cries in his sleep.
    Bob Rennie said this couldn’t happen.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Vancouver RE Speculator Says:
    103

    Quick, someone point me to the nearest exit.

    Out of my way!!!!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    “As an analyst of Bubbles, I often quip that they tend to “go to incredible extremes – and then double.” Timing the bursting of a Bubble is a very challenging – if not nearly impossible – proposition. Yet this in no way should cloud the harsh reality that the longer a Bubble is accommodated the more devastating the unavoidable consequences. It is, as well, the nature of speculative manias for things to turn crazy in the destabilizing terminal-phase. The past few weeks – with more than ample Bubble accommodation and craziness – really make me fear that eventual day of reckoning.”

    QE Forever

    http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10707

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Aaron Chipman Says:
    105

    See how many computers my delusional uncle Dave is logged on?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    106

    @Island Bound: shriller is right. You’ll owe them a months rent. Thay can come after you to collect and I hope they do. Why are people so blaze about stiffing their landlords? It is really no different from any other theft or fraud.

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    Boombust Says:
    108

    “We haven’t seen him this bad since the days of Freako, Tulip, and Boombust.

    I’m still here. What Can I do to soothe you?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    109

    @Anonymous: “Why are people so blaze about stiffing their landlords? It is really no different from any other theft or fraud.”

    It is not fraud or theft both of which are illegal. Big difference.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    I’ve been reading this blog forever….is patriotz really freako?? I used to love watching freako bitchslap Chipman on a daily basis….

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @oneangryslav2:

    forecasting right now 12.9 total with 14.3 on SFH and 12.0 on attached.

    Two months ago those same numbers were 8.6, 10.1 and 7.7 respectively.


    (Last sleep – – I depart tomorrow . . . :-( )

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    112

    @Anonymous: Breach of contract is also illegal. There is a difference in that theft and fraud are crimes, punishable under the Criminal Code, whereas breach of a lease agreement is a civil matter. But, in all three you are unlawfully taking or withholding something that rightfully belongs to someone else.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Why would developers pull something like this? Do the benefits outweigh the fines?

    http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Surrey+mayor+neighbours+shocked+horror+movie+illegal/7245875/story.html

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    Anonymous Says:
    114

    @Vote Down The Facts: Well what about price level and debt over time. U will clearly see debt outrun price level increase on a percentage basis

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Romeo Jordan Says:
    115

    ZRH,

    Wish you well, stay on the blog…..come back when it makes sense….

    I do now suspect that prices here fall in the range of fifty percent, to the point where you can buy a very very decent place on the westside (not a mansion, mind you) for a million bucks.

    Be well.

    Rob Chimpman – can we chip in and mail him some rocks to shove up his ASS for being so fucking stupid about listings? What a fucking dolt.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Romeo Jordan Says:
    116

    Chimpman predicted a peak in listings for the year.

    Rocks up his ASS!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Romeo Jordan Says:
    117

    Smooth, round, comfy ones, mind you….the kind he likes.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    118

    @Romeo Jordan:

    “I do now suspect that prices here fall in the range of fifty percent, to the point where you can buy a very very decent place on the westside (not a mansion, mind you) for a million bucks.”

    That’s still fucked up.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Best place on meth:

    A basic bungalo should be going for $650k. not a tear down, but a decent shape bungalo. They are basically what? $1.2 right now? Wonder what they will end up going for at the trough.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    120

    @Anonymous: “There is a difference in that theft and fraud are crimes, punishable under the Criminal Code, whereas breach of a lease agreement is a civil matter.”

    But you said it was ‘no different from theft or fraud’. Sounds different to me.

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    @Anonymous: Chill out, no one’s stiffing anyone. You’re reading way too much into things.

    It is a fact tenants generally have more ways out of a lease than landlords do. IT’S THE LAW. A tenant who has a lease, pays his rent on time and is not breaking the law is basically unmovable.

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    Anonymous Says:
    122

    @DaMann: “A basic bungalo should be going for $650k. not a tear down, but a decent shape bungalo. They are basically what? $1.2 right now? Wonder what they will end up going for at the trough.”

    What is going for $1.2 mil right now on the Westside should be about 400K. I think we will see that at some point. Heck in most US cities of the same size as Vancouver that house would be $150K and considered a dump. In Vancouver we call it ‘livable’.

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    Best place on meth Says:
    123

    This home has great Fung Su.

    http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12354315&PidKey=1613531489

    What is that?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @ZRH2YVR: aw man, hope you’ll be checking in here in the future. You analysis and comments are one of the main things I enjoy about this site, you seem to have very good seats to view the bubble from.

    In any case good luck with the move!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    new article today from Canadian Business: Canada’s Housing Crash Begins

    “The Vancouver market has cracked.”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Bailing in BC Says:
    126

    @ZRH2YVR:
    But you’ll still visit us, right?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Best place on meth Says:
    127

    @crashcow:

    Wow.

    That was unexpected from Canadian Business.

    Game on.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @crashcow: from your article:

    “he only way to account for the market becoming so detached from fundamentals, in Madani’s view, is a pervasive belief among buyers that prices will keep rising. “Vancouver is far, far beyond what anyone would expect, based on trends in immigration, income or interest rates,” he says. “That’s just not sustainable.””

    enough said…

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    CBC’s The National will be doing a segment on Vancouver’s meltdown next Thursday. They’ve decided to replace Sewerville with Garth Turner. Should be good.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    HipsterBear Says:
    130

    There was a question about what QE means. Here is my understanding. The Fed is going to be buying most non agency US MBSs going forward for as long as unemployment is elevated. That has the effect of dropping mortgage rates and allowing people to bring forward future price increases by giving them exorbitantly cheap debt. That will increase disposable income and be good for consumer spending. This will not lead to inflation in the near term because labor markets are weak.

    How about Canada? Rates are going up in Canada in part because growth of exports to the US is seen as positive. I don’t think there are any renewed inflation expectations, this looks ‘real’ to me. Since Canada floats its currency rates need to be viewed with exchange rate expectations in mind.

    Hey where is that Conrad guy. I wanted to ask him how cincos aregoing up when they should be going down. Who knows, don’t take anything u read here seriously unless its data. And why isnt patriotz/yogurt getting modded up like crazy? Makes me think we’ve all got biases. We all want Herr markt to drop but that won’t make it so.

    Makaya you better get comfortable, its a long way to go. Markets don’t correct in a year, unless Vancouver is different. Wouldn’t that be ironic.

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    bullwhip29 Says:
    131

    @ HipsterBear September 14th, 2012 at 11:18 pm

    With QE to infinity (and the threat of an appearance from the inflation boogeyman), Bernanke is attempting to pull forward the purchases of every hard asset under the sun whether we like it or not.

    Rates are not going up in Cda anytime soon.

    The RE market in Vanc and elsewhere is about to have another bounce. This will be fueled primarily by cash buyers looking for a place to park some money. Those on the fringes will be out of luck. The recent pullback was not the “big one” everyone here has been waiting for.

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    HipsterBear Says:
    132

    And as for freako, he will be back. zrh good luck, don’t know why you’re sad, enjoy the cheese and wine and getting to wear a suit that people notice. I would never make it there.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    HipsterBear Says:
    133

    @bullwhip29: QE is a huge + for los americanos, QE3 was their Gandalf the White, construction spending is starting to pick up and will continue to improve for years. As for Canada there will be definite +s for resources.

    It looked like QE was unnecessary anyways, the 5-5 was showing no breakout, this latest bout was trying a stopgap for the fiscal asshattery the US is stuck with. It’s no substitute but it’s better than nothing. The size of QE3 was also small relative to past moves.

    Hate the power of central bankers if you must but the Bernank is winning this one for the US, and maybe its not popular but that is good for Canada too because growing into other parts of the world look to be risky in comparison.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    HipsterBear Says:
    134

    @bullwhip29: On VanCity getting a boost. There are two meeeelion Vancouverites, that would need to be a lot of parking of cash. I thought rates were supposed to go down, last I checked my mediums were down since Thursday. Help a brother out here; if there’s one think this blog’s comments have taught me it’s that Vancouver is built on debt and Canada’s CB no likey.

    Prediction: prices will rise next spring month on month. Maybe QE makes it go up a bit more but the trend is going to be down. 2015 is only 2 years away, as that date grows nearer any guess what 5 year yields will do? Asking because I’m not entirely sure the answer.

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    ScubaSteve Says:
    135

    @Anonymous:

    Thanks for letting me know. The chart has been updated. Here is the new link:

    http://i45.tinypic.com/308z77c.gif

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    @ZRH2YVR

    Sorry didn’t catch your previous post, where you going and for how long?

    Hope you stick around, you’ve provided all of us with amazing information.

    Thank you!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Not Ready To Be Slave Says:
    137

    2006 Mersedes anyone? (first time i see this kind of questionn on LJ… we are on the right track)))

    http://vancouver.livejournal.com/5080319.html

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    Vancouver Says:
    138

    I honestly can’t see prices rising more than 20% this year.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Proud and extremely rich Chinese home owners Says:
    139

    @HipsterBear:

    OUR motherland will provide job for desperate Canada if they are friendly to China and adhere to our foreign policy against US and Japan.Down with Japan aggression to China.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    why all the articles about how this realtor didn’t price the property for what it was obviously worth??

    http://www.vancouverobserver.com/blogs/realestate/vancouver-real-estate-bidding-war-british-properties

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/vancouver-real-estates-million-dollar-question-what-sells/article4545230/

    just a couple of a LOT that were published this week

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    ZRH2YVR please tell me you’re going to still visit and post on this site?

    you’re one of my favourite posters, I’ll miss you like crazy:(

    Wishing you all the best with your move!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Meth-What is that?

    “For a realtor trying to survive the currently sluggish market, there might be no sight as disheartening as that of the unyielding feng shui master who shows up with the buyer to assess the property.”

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/feng-shui-a-mystic-force-in-vancouver-real-estate/article4529893/?cmpid=rss1

    $3800 to assess a house, $2800 to assess an apartment….omg-wtf

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    “he only way to account for the market becoming so detached from fundamentals, in Madani’s view, is a pervasive belief among buyers that prices will keep rising. “Vancouver is far, far beyond what anyone would expect, based on trends in immigration, income or interest rates,” he says. “That’s just not sustainable.””

    Larry should bring that article to his next realtors coffee talk

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    “In Canada, the banks are also taking a much closer look at the income and assets of wealthy buyers before issuing huge mortgages, according to Roy. “It used to be if you showed up from China and said you owned a business, the bank would just give you the 80% financing,” he says. ”

    but we are much more prudent than the U.S was..

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    Anonymous Says:
    145

    http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/98306–canada-s-housing-crash-begins

    EVERYBODY SHARE THIS ON YOUR FACEBOOK WALL! save you friends some pain by not making the mistake of buying in this market

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Romeo Jordan Says:
    146

    20,000, jeez it is actually possible THIS MONTH….

    I think that the fear/panic/awareness is building faster than expected.

    Expect to hear screams in the night….

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Romeo Jordan Says:
    147

    rbc is doing condo tours, starting with getting pre approved for a mortgage and then some wine pairings to set the mood and then out to shop for condos with a realtor….smart move actually, IMHO.

    Anyone else hearing about how things are slowing and folk in the biz are getting creative?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    “It wasn’t that long ago that we had the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression followed by a global recession. If that wasn’t the tipping point for deflation of an asset bubble, I don’t know what is”
    -Cam Muir, Sep 5 2012

    “What’s surprising about the weakness on the West Coast is the absence of any change in economic fundamentals, such as a spike in unemployment, to explain it. The Vancouver market was cooling even before the latest round of mortgage tightening by Ottawa, which took effect in July.”
    – Cdn Business, Sep 14, 2012

    People here got this idea that Vancouver must be special since it survived 2008. Yeah right. We had 20% price drop in 8 months followed by unprecedented stimulus to goose prices back up. You call that survival? Let’s see how your Vancouver market survives now.

    Bubbles don’t need a trigger. They eventually collapse on their own weight.

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    Anonymous Says:
    149

    @Best place on meth: ….This home has great Fung Su.

    http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12354315&PidKey=1613531489

    What is that?…….

    Not sure but I believe it comes off with toilet paper.

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    Boombust Says:
    150

    “EVERYBODY SHARE THIS ON YOUR FACEBOOK WALL! save you friends some pain by not making the mistake of buying in this market…”

    Although I routinely post articles such as this on FB, I find it really has little or no effect.

    I have tried talking to people and explaining things every which way….but they don’t listen. Many of them end up buying anyway.

    However,I DO think I am starting to get fewer of those looks that say, “You must be off your rocker”.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    151

    @crashcow: “CBC’s The National will be doing a segment on Vancouver’s meltdown next Thursday. They’ve decided to replace Sewerville with Garth Turner. Should be good.”

    I miss Tsurd already.

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    Anonymous Says:
    152

    @vangrl: “why all the articles about how this realtor didn’t price the property for what it was obviously worth??”

    I guess it is news when a realtor tries to pull a fast one on an elderly lady. I think it is news worthy and shows either this realtor was incompetent at pricing a property or was just looking for an easy sale at the expense of an elderly lady. Probably a little of both.

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    Bo Xilai Says:
    153

    I’ve been checking the http://re.olvius.com/ website just about every day…

    The website tracks daily price changes for individual properties in the REBGV.

    In about 5-10% of the cases, there is an actually price INCREASE… Even for some properties which have been languishing for months.

    For example:

    http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12410581&PidKey=-218599722

    This one was listed for $3,288,000.00 on July 5, 2012, but raised to $3,488,000.00 yesterday.(!)

    Can anyone explain this behaviour? Haven’t these homeowner received the memo? I’m scratching my head.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Bo Xilai:
    perhaps the owner changed a realtor who advertised “superior sales skills” and guaranteed “higher sale price”? Also, apparently there are some big shot realtors who would refuse to list a house if it’s priced below a certain level.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Muff Diver Mike Says:
    155

    @Boombust: Boombust. I’m with you. I veered away from engaging in debate about the idiot real estate prices long ago. For me, like many of you, this has been the ultimate exercise in patience. We bears knew we’d be right because we were talking logic. Post 2008 we saw the Feds artificially pump more hot air into this thing…. But, WE knew it couldn’t last too long.

    I’m fascinated with the surge of properties onto the market. Psychology baby!!!!!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    gordholio Says:
    156

    According to the MLS map, there are approx 1100 “houses” currently for sale in Richmond – a place where total listings have exploded from 1800 to 2700 in the past few months. Yet only one house (a WWII-era craphole cabin in airplane-riddled Burkeville) is priced under $600,000.

    Unreal. This is going to be soooo interesting going forward.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    oneangryslav2 Says:
    157

    @vangrl:

    “In Canada, the banks are also taking a much closer look at the income and assets of wealthy buyers before issuing huge mortgages, according to Roy. “It used to be if you showed up from China and said you owned a business, the bank would just give you the 80% financing,” he says. ”

    I call b.s. Everybody knows that HAM didn’t need no stinkin’ mortgages. They paid everything in cash.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Bo Xilai

    It’s a marketing strategy Dan Kennedy teaches if you can’t sell it increase the price this makes people on the fence want to jump on the product cuz they feel they’ll miss the opportunity to buy at that price again.

    Realtors are constantly trying to improve their sales skills, went to an open house and they were using all sorts of sales techniques on me.

    Can you imagine yourself in this living room, your TV here… blah… blah…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

    Vancouver Says:
    159

    Bo Xilai – prices are rising in spring and fall markets. It’s seasonal.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    160

    @Bo Xilai. Thanks for the site, thought this listing was funny.

    Mission 34463 ROCKRIDGE PL 04-Jul-12 $469,900.00 3 3 View details
    28-Jul-12 $464,900.00 -2% View details
    01-Aug-12 $459,900.00 -3% View details
    03-Aug-12 $458,900.00 -3% View details
    09-Aug-12 $457,900.00 -3% View details
    10-Aug-12 $456,900.00 -3% View details
    15-Aug-12 $455,900.00 -3% View details
    17-Aug-12 $454,900.00 -4% View details
    23-Aug-12 $453,900.00 -4% View details
    25-Aug-12 $452,900.00 -4% View details
    31-Aug-12 $451,900.00 -4% View details
    02-Sep-12 $450,900.00 -5% View details
    07-Sep-12 $449,900.00 -5%

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    161

    If anyones thinking of buying this one, wait a couple days and another $1K will come off!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Groundhog Says:
    162

    Same place: http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11885926&PidKey=-218599722
    Huge Value! This home was purchased in 2007 for $540,000!

    Thats 16% below the 2007 price!

    Sorry for all the reposts on the same topic.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    wakeupcall Says:
    163

    WOW!!!
    That “Canadian Business” story is HUGE!
    Remember folks, we’re not talking the regular forecast from the RE industry, but a very credible impartial financial news source.

    Although this snowball has just shifted gears, it’s still time to get out before any sight of the bottom.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Groundhog: Dutch Auction? Some kind of tulip bulb thing?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    YLTNboomerang Says:
    165

    Oh this is too good to not post:

    http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/detail.cfm?mls=V971457

    This is the MLS link for the most expensive property currently listed in the Delbrook area of North Vancouver. I’ve been tracking this area for 4 years now and have seen the general trend of decent (but overpriced) places getting snapped up at around 800K, knocked down, and 4500sqft monsters built in their place and listed for $2M plus. Its almost like the spec builders have shifted from Van West to Delbrook. These houses are nice but builder designed boringness that will be albatrosses once a return to normal prices, but I digress.

    The main reason for the post is the open house comment for next week:

    “More than an open house this will be a FEAST. Profeesionally catered, by one the city’s finest, you are sure to appreciate the home and the food. Bring your appetite!”

    So, you are trying to sell a $3M house in suburbia by targeting cheapskates looking for free food!!! I get freshly baked cookies to appeal to walk-bys but actually advertising a free catered event??? BTW, “profeesionally” is the actual spelling in the copy, it is professionally catered, not professionally listed as any “professional” would check the spelling before posting to MLS!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    YLTNboomerang Says:
    166

    @YLTNboomerang: Oh wow, the profeesional I referenced above is actually Simon Coutts, owner of Simons Bike Shop. Check out this article from 2009 in the straight where he talks about having to moonlinght as a realtor “on the side” because of his struggling bike shop during the recession:

    http://www.straight.com/article-205319/bike-shops-ride-out-recession

    Then check out the copy on his webpage where he insinuates that he has been selling houses for 20 years when he says he has been “doing business in downtown for over 20 years”…selling bikes buddy, not selling houses!!!!

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    YLTNboomerang Says:
    167

    @YLTNboomerang: Oops, here is the link to “about simon”

    http://www.simoncoutts.com/about_simon.htm

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    AngloMan AngloMan Says:
    168

    Hi folks – im a long time Lurker and have just decided to post on here. I felt driven to join the ranks of bears when i discovered today that this link no longer works:
    http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/98306–canada-s-housing-crash-begins

    It worked yesterday. Do you think the powers that be at Canadian Business found the truth to difficult to read???
    Or am i just being paranoid??? I ask this as a long time follower of http://www.Housepricercrash.co.uk (a UK housing blog I’m sure some of you are aware of), having seen many a bearish article being pulled from the net.
    So hi folks – on to 20K and enjoy the fireworks.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Many Franks Says:
    169

    @AngloMan: This link works fine for me: http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/98306–canada-s-housing-crash-begins

    In the URL you posted, it looks like the double-dash got turned into an em-dash somewhere along the way, which broke the link. Ergo, not a conspiracy.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    AngloMan AngloMan Says:
    170

    BTW if anyone saved that article from ‘Canadian business’, i would love to get a copy – it summarizes things quite nicely :)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    AngloMan AngloMan Says:
    171

    How did that happen????? i just cut and pasted from the original link. Your link works fine – i shall put my tin foil hat away :)
    Thanks for your help :)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    AngloMan AngloMan Says:
    172

    @Many Franks: That was at you thanks :) – sorry just getting used to this posting stuff

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    AngloMan AngloMan Says:
    173

    Okay so this is a slightly more useful post than what i have started with that will have no irritating smileys (Admin – delete those posts if you wish).
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-14/spanish-home-prices-fall-most-on-record-as-economy-shrinks.html
    So its about spain – but the interesting part is this:

    “The property bonanza that ended in 2008 has left around 2 million unsold homes in Spain, representing supply that will take a decade to absorb, according to Madrid-based property research firm R.R. de Acuna & Asociados.”

    Who go on to say:

    “Stock isn’t being reduced and some of it will never be sold because of its quality and location,” said Fernando Rodriguez de Acuna Martinez, a partner at Acuna & Asociados. “Some of it may have to be demolished in the future to stop the slide in prices.”

    I doubt Condos will be demolished here – but can’t help but wonder where all the Tenants are going to come from once the investors pull out or are foreclosed on.

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    Vancouver Says:
    174

    AngloMan – don’t worry about Spain. Look at Phoenix it was the worst performing market, now it’s hotter than NYC, actually anywhere in America.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Vancouver:

    AngloMan – don’t worry about Spain. Look at Phoenix it was the worst performing market, now it’s hotter than NYC, actually anywhere in America.

    Yes it is. And a couple of years after its 50% price drop, I won’t be surprised if Vancouver’s market is “hot” again, too.

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    Romeo Jordan Says:
    176

    I think by the time we are done, decent lots on the westside will go for around $700,000…..down by 50-60%….

    Muppets are going to get squashed.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    177

    ‘How did that happen????? i just cut and pasted from the original link. Your link works fine ”

    i had the same issue when i cut and pasted that article somewhere else, just came up “page not found”…strange

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Bailing in BC Says:
    178

    @Groundhog:

    Perhaps they are taking a leaf out of David Ingrams book?

    http://www.centa.com/article.php/CanWeekofMon20080512000739.html

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Painted turtle Says:
    179

    “25-Aug-12 $452,900.00 -4% View details
    31-Aug-12 $451,900.00 -4% View details
    02-Sep-12 $450,900.00 -5% View details”

    Looks like a Sports Junkie tag: used equipment, price dropped every week until it appeals to someone.
    I like being patient and snap stuff for 5% of the initial price ;)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    180

    @Romeo Jordan: then you north van shoebox would be $100,000 in value, and your mortgage would be $300,000. imagine, your prenant girlfriend leave you with your pile of…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    BallsWoodman Says:
    181

    It would be nice if someone could update this youtube vid on the Vancouver Real Estate market roller coaster.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqOn5XEm86A

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    YLTNboomerang Says:
    182

    @AngloMan: As I’ve said before, we will not see condos demolished but I bet my hide we will see some of the tiny shoeboxes combined to form normal sized units. 700sqft 2 bedroom??? Really??? Gonna be pretty cheap to buy used kitchen and bathroom fixtures in 2015

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @BallsWoodman: 2 months ago I attempted the rollercoaster game editor.. not an easy undertaking. Made a couple trial coasters, but nowhere near the sophistication of the original. The original coaster author probably spent many many hours perfecting it. Fyi there are several coasters to pick from, the hanging glider version should be quite cool, especially under water.

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    Calling All Teranet Hedgers... Says:
    184

    Would anybody care to comment on the reliability of private placement quotes for the 2012/2013 Vancouver forward contracts from http://www.housepriceindex.ca/

    In particular, we are interested in:

    (1) Any problems with excessively large bid/ask spread when rolling the December expiry forward each year.

    (2) Any problems with inconsistent/adverse/discriminatory quotations buying versus selling. For example would could undertake comparing quotations provided to shell company or arms length affiliate on the other side of the same contract.

    We believe it would be an ideal time to begin acquiring/hedging Vancouver real estate which can be nominally priced according to the Teranet methodology. A risk free “subject to” spot offer on index priceable properties in Vancouver would be exactly bid – (ask – bid) where bid and ask are, respectively, the bid and ask price of the forward contract. The “subject to” condition on the real estate purchase would be that the offseting short private placement contract is honored by National Bank at the quoted bid or better.

    At some point in the very near future when prices begin their inevitable and spectacular decline, one would firesale the actual real properties while holding the short forward hedge contracts for profit.

    A highly profitable trade of this sort was was demonstrated with spectacular effect in the US by John Paulson. A book was written which documents the trade:

    http://www.amazon.com/Greatest-Trade-Ever-Behind-Scenes/dp/0385529910

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Calling All Teranet Hedgers…: what do you smoke?

    Nobody is bullish any more on Van RE. In a trade, there’s always two sides for the transaction. Who’s gonna take the other side of your trade?

    “one would firesale the actual real properties while holding the short forward hedge contracts for profit”

    yeah, right…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Calling All Teranet Hedgers... Says:
    186

    @Makaya:

    Hello. Thank you for commenting. You have the point exactly. We have some sample quotations and they display a reasonably workable bid for this trade.

    HOWEVER, we would like to know if the sample quotations are representative after significant positions are booked. For one thing, National Bank itself knows the entire book since they issue the securities.

    Please don’t vote down my question. We mean no offense. We are merely looking for real world responses regarding the reliability of the National Bank Teranet forward contract quotations. If participants on this board are not interested in seeing the responses to this question, then we do understand and shall inquire elsewhere.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    187

    @Makaya:
    “Nobody is bullish any more on Van RE.”

    Well anyone buying Van RE – and people are still buying – is bullish of course. And I would say they still represent the views of most people.

    The problem is, as you said, that nobody willing to play the Teranet forward contracts is going to be bullish. This means that the contracts will NOT track the actual market.

    In any market where the actual asset can be short sold, forward contracts will track the actual market due to arbitrage. Like the stock market. But of course, you can’t short sell RE.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    space needler Says:
    188

    @Calling All Teranet Hedgers…: Case Shiller indexes have something similar, was not too useful due to low volume. Basically it’s an Intrade bet, of which I think Vancouver has one. If you could put up housing as collateral like a put, that would be interesting: owner writes a put and has option to close it out before it closes, same as US style stock put. If it works like a stock put the writer gets steady cash flow but is heavily exposed to tail risk.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Talked today with a very successful realtor who’s always had high sales, even when other realtors experienced slowdowns in ’08. But now, the market is dead for him. Listings through the roof and no sales for over a month. Worst August ever.

    Why? He honestly didn’t have a clue. Thought maybe it was the good weather. (LOL) He’s just hoping that things will somehow pick up in the fall, as his fixed costs are decimating his meager savings.

    I’ve been cautious to call the crash as finally happening, but now I’m convinced. If this guy is dead, then it’s done.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    New handle . . same analysis and info . . as long as it is possible!!

    Cheers from Zurich

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Betamax Says:

    September 16th, 2012 at 4:34 am

    Talked today with a very successful realtor who’s always had high sales, even when other realtors experienced slowdowns in ’08. But now, the market is dead for him. Listings through the roof and no sales for over a month. Worst August ever.

    Why? He honestly didn’t have a clue. Thought maybe it was the good weather. (LOL) He’s just hoping that things will somehow pick up in the fall, as his fixed costs are decimating his meager savings.

    ————————————————-
    Partly off topic, but, “this very successful realtor who’s always had high sales”………”decimating his meager savings”

    I think this guy needs financial planning help…..hope he’s not giving out financial advice and just stick to real estate sales.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @YVR2ZRH: if you don’t like overpriced things you won’t like zurich too much

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    real_professional Says:
    193

    No doubt Vancouver’s upward home price momentum is dead. But despite all odds, it survived the 2008 crash, even after the olympics in 2010 inventory was building (albeit not at these levels) and yet Vancouver found life again in the phantom Chinese invasion. Throughout all of this ]Mark Carney has been wagging his finger at consumers saying, “I’ll raise rates, I warn you, I raise rates” and yet that did nothing to slow home buyers.

    What it took after everything was government intervention, which is what caused this mess in the first place.

    I have been trying to think of anything that could provide one more leg up in Vancouver home prices and I have come up blank. I can’t even see Ottawa trying to reflate the bubble if it collapses too quickly, partly because the serious carnage is not going to be distributed equally across the country, it is going to be focused on Vancouver which needs 50% price drops just to put things back into line.

    Any thoughts on what could push Vancouver upward?

    1) Lower rates (NO)
    2) Chinese of other nationalities buying in bulk (NO)
    3) Pick up in international, inter/intra provincial migration (NO)
    4) Real Economic growth (Wild card – but a lot would be needed)
    5) Increases in real rents (Possible I guess, but support in history of this)
    6) Increase in real wages (This would have to go hand in hand with number 4, unless they start paying police officers quadruple overtime now instead of their)
    7) Christy Clark has a plan (NO – because she isn’t getting re-elected)
    8) A shortage of housing stock is uncovered (Everything seems overbuilt already and without immigration NO)
    9) People take on more debt (We would have to see a reversal of the lending tightening that we have seen to date).

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    Anonymous Says:
    194

    @YVR2ZRH: Dont fake it. you are still in a rentalcondo somewhere in van.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    195

    @Makaya: nobody? one opinion of a stupid bear represents all the people? what are you smoking? oh, please dont advertise all your degrees on the anonymous blog, cuz noone gives a ratass about it.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    patriotz patriotz Says:
    196

    @real_professional:
    “What it took after everything was government intervention”

    What it took was LESS government intervention. The government is intervening less in the market than it was a couple of years ago. If the government stopped intervening altogether, the market would collapse immediately.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    197

    @patriotz: stupid bears live in lala land. if it wasnt for gov intervention, would stupid bears have jobs to pay rent?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Anonymous Says:
    198

    @Makaya: “Nobody is bullish any more on Van RE.”

    What have you been smoking? Sure people around here are not bullish and never have been. However, the vast majority of people will remain bullish long after the crash has started. The first leg down will be seen as ‘bargains’. The vast majority of people will become bearish at or near the bottom. You need to read up on how markets work.

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    @Conrad:
    With Salary x 3 for same job – – – you don’t really notice – – just don’t come here as a tourist. As a travelling Canadian, it can be shocking – but relative to incomes, prices in Switzerland are lower.

    Funny thing is – day 1 in town and there are things that are now cheaper than the price 10 years ago with most things the same. That’s what 0% inflation is all about.

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    YLTNboomerang Says:
    200

    @real_professional: What about making mortgages tax deductible to give those struggling a leg up” This would piss me off but it is one card they have left that they could play. I know BPOM doesn’t see this as possible but I’ve seen stranger things. Unfortunately, making rent deductible makes more sense as it will reduce govt income less and help those at a lower income level.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    @Conrad:

    @YVR2ZRH: if you don’t like overpriced things you won’t like zurich too much

    The locals don’t find it overpriced, because the prices are supported by local incomes. What’s Vancouver’s excuse?

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    Anonymous Says:
    202

    @Devore: like you know…stupid bears keep pretending they know everything.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Patiently Waiting Says:
    203

    @real_professional: “What it took after everything was government intervention, which is what caused this mess in the first place.”

    I know I’m tooting my horn, but this is what I suggested here a few years ago. The invisible hand can’t move fast enough to correct years of government meddling.

    Now the federal government is seeing a huge mess in Toronto and Vancouver thanks to low wages and high housing prices. Toronto’s unemployment has been 9-10% since the 2009 recession, and is still stuck at 9% today. This is really, really bad and is a drag on the national economy, not to mention government coffers.

    Even with these bad conditions, if immigration policy hadn’t been err “renovated” we’d still have newcomers piling into our major cities. The eventual outcome being slums full of ethnic tension.

    The Conservatives know the urban elite are not their support base (check out the last Liberal seats in Vancouver-Toronto-Montreal) so to hell with them. Time to dust off the old strategy of using immigration to settle the vast open Prairies.

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    @YLTNboomerang:
    “What about making mortgages tax deductible to give those struggling a leg up”

    Will not happen for a number of very good reasons:

    1. It’s a huge on-budget expenditure at a time when the government is trying to reduce the on-budget deficit.
    2. Almost all of the money goes to people who already own. Extremely small bang for the buck when it comes to supporting buyers.
    3. Will encourage people to take on more debt when the government is trying to reduce consumer debt (sincerely I think because the outcome if they don’t is catastrophic). Again refer to #2.

    If the government wants to try to rejuice the market, it will use off-budget items like loosening lending requirements again, or expanding the RRSP buyers program. Or use more bank-for-the buck on-budget expenditures like expanding the first buyers credit.

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    @Devore:
    With regard to RE prices, the Economist rates Switzerland 0% against rents and -7% against incomes. Canada is ranked +77% and +32% respectively (Canada, not Vancouver). Against rents, Canada is the most overvalued country in their ranking.

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    Anonymous Says:
    206

    @YLTNboomerang: “What about making mortgages tax deductible to give those struggling a leg up” This would piss me off but it is one card they have left that they could play.”

    It would never happen because this would require the government to give back a massive amount of tax revenue of which only a very small part would end stimulating housing. The vast majority of people who would get this deduction already own houses and have mortgages and therefore would have no impact on stimulating housing. Sure it might help new home owners a bit but there would be much more efficient ways to give money to first time home buyers and cost the government a fraction of what this would cost.

    There are two things to consider when we think about what can the government do to inflate housing. First the government is currently trying to cool the housing market. They have been tightening CMHC and other regulations for years now so it is not in their plans to stimulate housing right now. Second, if things went down too fast and they wanted to reverse course we have seen in other markets there is really nothing the government can do to have any meaningful long term impact. See Japan, the US, Spain, Ireland, etc as examples. The only thing that could happen realistically is for incomes to rise significantly. With housing going down the opposite will happen. The economy is for the most part beyond the Canadian governments control and will depend on the US and world economy more than anything else. I don’t think there is any new game changing industries coming to Vancouver that will change our incomes. The only thing I see on the horizon is the NDP which will cool things further even if just by perception. If you are bullish on the world economy (I’m not) you are probably better to have your money is equities and commodities anyway.

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    I live in a four unit rental property. After years of not doing much, my landlord is suddenly doing improvements. A new shed, a new fence on one side, and some cement work around the driveway. None of it totally necessary but I’m happy to see it, though the DIY cement-work isn’t all pretty. What I wonder is whether he is getting ready to sell.

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    HAM Solo Says:
    208

    @ real_pro and YLTN

    I think you guys are definitely on the right track. You have to be aware that for all our omniscience here on this blog, H,F, & C have all the same data we have and are clearly quite willing to do anything to prop up the bloody ponzi scheme and, most importantly, get re-elected three years from now.

    My guess is that the feds are purposely putting the brakes on now, so that their prop-up job in 2015/2016 is not too difficult. The gameplan is probably more to limit the damage in housing rather than try in vain to reflate the bubble, and hope like hell that some other areas of the economy start performing. Here, IMHO are the options they could draw on to stabilize a cratering housing market:

    1. Foreclosure bans, particularly for owner-occupied homes. It would be a massive vote-getter, and why wouldn’t they employ it themselves rather than letting the NDP campaign their way to power on that platform.

    2. Mortgage interest deductibility. Again, a massive transfer to Tory supporters in the 905 belt in Ontario, as well to suburban families. Of course there would be a big hole in the government’s budget if they implemented this. However, if they let the economy crater into a massive recession, there would be an even bigger hole.

    3. I think they may also realize that there are too many buildings being built, so I doubt they would do too much to prop-up new construction activity. However, they have used renovation tax credits before…and I can’t imagine them leaving that stone unturned going into an election season.

    4. How do they pay for it? Printing press. So long as Canada prints less money, proportionately, than the US, Europe and Japan, we will probably get away with it without descending into chaos.

    Even if they do all that, I think that the new construction industry is going to be hurting. However, I think the gov’ts game plan is going to be subsidizing export-oriented construction jobs in pipelines, forest products, ports, railways…and basically pulling the trades people away from housing bubble activity to those areas in an attempt to keep employment high.

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    @Anonymous: Have you seen the sales number recently?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Richmond Realtor James Wong’s Aug report is out:
    “August was another disappointment for many home sellers who were hopeful of selling their homes.

    The real estate market in Richmond deteriorated further in August.The lack of buying activities and large number of listings continued to exert pressure on home sellers to cut their prices in order to sell their homes. There are many more homes listed at or below their city assessment values.

    There are no signs of the market in Richmond getting better. With the onset of the seasonally slower months in the fall, it is unlikely the last 3 months of 2012 will bring any relief to home sellers who are desperate to sell.

    For sellers who have to sell, the only way out is to cut prices… not just 5%, a much deeper cut of 10% to 15% is required.

    A prolonged period of low sales, and declining home prices could take many years to play out. Declining home prices will erode seller confidence, resulting in more motivated home sellers to cut prices to sell before home prices drop further.

    A real estate down cycle is already in motion, and just like from 1995 to 2001, the real estate market in Richmond will have a persistent high level or homes for sale, and few buyers willing or able to buy due to tighter lending rules.

    Richmond detached homes over $1,000,000 are not seeing much buying interest. With total active listings of 721 and average sale around 26 homes the past 3 months, there are 26 months supply of homes. For detached homes over $1,500,000, there are currently 366 homes for sale. With an average past 3 months sale of 12 homes, this translates into 30 months supply of homes.

    Early sellers would consider themselves the smart ones, cashing out long before others!

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    Anacdote Andy Says:
    211

    You guys like stories right? Espcecially ones where the cheater loses, right?

    Someone I know personally fucked with Revenue Canada and lost. He owed a shit load of money due to back taxes. So, rather than deal with them he avoids. They go into his account and take $100,000. Of course, I’m thinking why aren’t you hiding your money if you wanna cheat the system? Or, if you don’t want to lose a huge chunk of change, why don’t you arrange a payment plan? Ouch!

    Ps. He rents :-)

    The current house I’m renting in here in Calgary has been on the market for a year. It was originally listed last spring @ $385,000. It’s since been lowered to $350,000 with almost zero shows. It has now been taken off the market and will be relisted in the spring. The margin of profit is pretty slim as I know the owner’s situation. Does the market better itself in the spring? Or will these guys be forced to go lower?

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    HAM Solo Says:
    212

    Another anecdote. House on my street sold for $1.2 M. Buyer was a young couple w 2 pre-schoolers. He’s a builder. Now living in a house he has re-built, listed @ 2.4 million … Not selling. He was going to move in to the house on our street, while he builds a house on a third property. Now he is desparately trying to rent out the house he just bought. Put this in perspective: if the housing market stays weak, his forward-looking income is more or less zero (in that he probably won’t be able to recoup his costs from the home re-build), plus he is losing equity like crazy on two other properties at the same time. Likely going bankrupt and should likely cost his lenders about $ 1M in credit losses by the time it all settles.

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    Vancouver Says:
    213

    Betamax – “He honestly didn’t have a clue” – Bullshit! Your entire post was a lie.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    215

    @HAM Solo:
    “Foreclosure bans, particularly for owner-occupied homes.”

    You must be joking. First of all, foreclosures come under provincial jurisdiction anyway. Second, if lenders weren’t able to foreclose to recover the outstanding loan balance, they wouldn’t make any new loans, would they? What would that do to the market? It wouldn’t inspire much confidence in the stability of the banks either.

    Your other points don’t make any sense either but they’ve already been dealt with for the most part.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    216

    @Anonymous:
    “can you buy a coach house? and if so do you own part of the property? and what’s with the $409 maintenance fees”

    It’s a strata (i.e. condo), that’s what.

    You should send this one to Mish, I think even he would be surprised.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    217

    @VMD:
    “A real estate down cycle is already in motion, and just like from 1995 to 2001″

    Yeah right. The nominal price decline over that whole period was 15%, and she’s just pointed out that prices are already down that much.

    We are headed for the largest nominal decline since the 1930’s.

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    HAM Solo Says:
    218

    @ patriotz

    I think the gov’t is not going to let the housing market go down 90 per cent, just so a few cautious guys with 50 grand in the bank can buy shaugnessy mansions. They are going to let things cool down to a point and then pull every trick they can imagine to prop this sucker up. Whether you think their playbook of options has been “already dealt with” or not.

    I’m no bull, but I’ve been watching these guys for some time now and I think they have been paying attention to the US. Not a coincidence in my book that US housing prices have bottomed at the same time as the robo-signing lawsuits led to a foreclosure ban. Foreclosure requires action by both CMHC and the provincially managed court system. Either the feds or the provinces could pull off a foreclosure ban, IMHO. Not saying it’s fair. Just thinking it is a weapon in the jam-job arsenal that ultimately gets used.

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    @patriotz:
    This was the same Richmond realtor who predicted “In Richmond, there is a high probability of a price decline for detached homes in excess of 30%, and attached homes in the range of 20% or more over the next 3 years.”

    Interestingly, sometime since then he had edited out “next 3 years” to “next few years”. I’m sure he’s getting lots of hate mails and special attention from his agency for all the negativity.

    http://richmondbcrealestates.com/?p=828

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    220

    @HAM Solo:
    There was never a foreclosure ban in the US. There were some moratoria on foreclosures imposed either by some states or by lenders themselves due to title and securitization issues which do not apply to Canada.

    The reason why the market has bottomed in the US is that buying has become cheaper than renting – a good deal so in many markets. It’s that simple.

    The Cons will never admit there was a US-style bubble in Canada which means that they will never do anything that admits there is a US-style bust. As I’ve said, they may make take some measures to encourage buying, but existing owners in trouble are going to be toast. Flaherty expressly said “people should not buy houses they can’t afford” and that was not an off the cuff remark.

    You might want to take notice that one of the strongest areas of support for the Cons is the Okanagan, which is ground zero for the bust, and they have tightened lending requirements in the face of this bust.

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    HAM Solo Says:
    221

    @ patriotz

    “Second, if lenders weren’t able to foreclose to recover the outstanding loan balance, they wouldn’t make any new loans, would they?”

    Oh, come now, you are talking about old fashioned banks, one’s that actually put their capital at risk. Canadian banks just go and sign up any old drunk whose personal information can be made to conform to CMHC requirements. So long as the CMHC kept on paying them back their principal on the bum loans they have written, the Canadian banks will continue to write new loans. It is not classic lending, they are essentially underwriting government debt and taking 150 bps as a fee.

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    Painted turtle Says:
    222

    I am targeting realtors in the segment I am interested in.
    I tell them about my (honourable) financial situation, and ask them, since the market is currently going down to reconnect with economics fundamentals, to inform sellers that it only makes sense for buyers like me to buy when mortgage payments match my rent (= after prices go down by 50%).

    This maneuver is as pathetic as Scam Good filming yellow copters, but, hey, I think it is fair play ;)

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    @Vancouver: “Bullshit! Your entire post was a lie.”

    Not at all, no matter how much you might want to think otherwise.

    I’m sure the realtor has heard of the recent qualification changes which generally affect first-time buyers, but he’s in an area selling primarily houses and townhouses and generally deals with move-up buyers rather than first-timers. He clearly hadn’t figured out how a lack of first-time buyers was killing the move-up buyer market. He went on about the weather at some length.

    He’s a great salesman and a real ‘people person’, but neither logic nor research are his strong points.

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    HAM Solo Says:
    224

    @ patriotz

    I completely agree with you that there are going to be some existing home owners thrown under the bus, foreclosed on etc. It is happening right now. But if you put a 30 per cent drop on home prices in Vancouver and Toronto, then nearly everyone under 40 who loses a job will geyt foreclosed on. I think the price drop will happen, but that some Robin Hood type will emerge to save the young families. Harper doesn’t care about being philosophically inconsistent. He cares about being re-elected.

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    @HAM Solo: “likely cost his lenders about $ 1M in credit losses by the time it all settles.”

    I wonder how much of that is going to be payed by the taxpayer. This country is a joke.

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    Anonymous Says:
    226

    @HAM Solo: “I think the gov’t is not going to let the housing market go down 90 per cent”

    You give the government way too much credit. They will try to prevent this but if market forces say the price should go down 90% then it will. See Japan for a great example of how much real estate and stock markets can go down despite government efforts to prop them up.

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    Anonymous Says:
    227

    @HAM Solo: “But if you put a 30 per cent drop on home prices in Vancouver and Toronto, then nearly everyone under 40 who loses a job will geyt foreclosed on. I think the price drop will happen, but that some Robin Hood type will emerge to save the young families. Harper doesn’t care about being philosophically inconsistent. He cares about being re-elected.”

    Any reason why Obama is not doing this in the US? Why doesn’t he wave his magic wand and make house prices go up.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    228

    @HAM Solo:
    “But if you put a 30 per cent drop on home prices in Vancouver and Toronto, then nearly everyone under 40 who loses a job will geyt foreclosed on.”

    That is exactly what happened in BC and Alberta in the 1980’s and in Toronto in the 1990’s.

    Nothing was done then and nothing will be done this time. The problem is that the great majority of the public would see themselves as being made to pay for the irresponsible minority. If government bailouts could actually halt price declines the majority might see it as doing them some good, but as someone has already pointed out it doesn’t work.

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    @Anonymous: alternatively, you could buy a basement suite for $649,000 ($800/sqft)…

    Mount Pleasant basement suite on sale for $649,000

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    HAM Solo Says:
    230

    @ patriotz

    I think the reason why something will be done about foreclosures now and not in the past is that this bubble has morphed the problem out of all proportion to past foreclosure spurts. In the past housing problems were regional, this one is national. In the past we weren’t dealing with home-price to income of 8,9,10x like we are with a lot of communities in Canada. The bottom quartile get thrown under the bus. The next higher group gets bailed out. Won’t be fair. But it will win someone an election.

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    HAM Solo Says:
    231

    @ Anonymous

    Obama doesn’t control the executive and the legislature like the PM does. Incidentally, what do you think Bernanke is doing, if not throwing the kitchen sink at the housing market.

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    patriotz patriotz Says:
    232

    @HAM Solo:
    “Incidentally, what do you think Bernanke is doing, if not throwing the kitchen sink at the housing market.”

    Indeed he and Greenspan before him have been throwing sinks since 2001. What’s the end result? 2001 prices, or lower.

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    HAM Solo Says:
    233

    @ patriotz

    1. It’s not an irresponsible “minority,” it’s an irresponsible majority. That’s why the bailouts will be possible. This town (and most others in the country) is loaded up with under-saving, over-spending HELOC-kiting, BMW-leasing non-mathematical fools.

    2. You will note that in 2005-07 the Greenspan/Bernanke Fed actually raised rates over a dozen times, choking off the adjustable rate mortgage crowd and pricking the bubble. What Bernanke is doing now (possibly with some success) is trying to re-flate a Canadian-style gov’t guaranteed housing bubble in the US.

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    Bag it and tag it Says:
    234

    My prediction for peak inventory is 20800, at end of October…

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    Anonymous Says:
    235

    @Makaya: eventhought it’s a basement suite, it’s mouth-watering to have!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    From the Canadian Business article:

    ” But while the average resale home price has jumped nearly 128% since 2000, rents have risen by just 16.7%, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. “

    You can sum up the bubble perfectly in this short sentence. I don’t know anything more telling of the insanity that is Vancouver RE.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    October 28th 2012

    Inventory 20888

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    @HAM Solo: “it’s an irresponsible majority. That’s why the bailouts will be possible.”

    And that’s precisely why it can’t happen. Bailing out just 10K people for 100K each is $1billion. And there will be way more than 10K people in trouble and 100K each won’t cover much with a say 30% downturn.

    There will be no bailouts for individuals. Banks will get their bailouts if needed, but individuals will not.

    As someone above said, it simply isn’t that easy or Obama would have waved the wand.

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    Does Credtor Protected Asset Segregation Work In BC? Says:
    239

    What are the relevant BC precedents on squirreling away cash into segregated accounts while making all the minimum payments on home line(s) of credit?

    For example, one could make the minimum payments on all loans while using excess equity on properties to finance acquisition of additional rental properties. One could argue it is completely responsible if, for example, one is counselled by professional realtors with advice such as “Real estate never goes down”. Tell the judge, “Who knew????”. Right?

    From http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/canada-immune-foreclosure-wave

    Any sparse financial assets that new homeowners may own can be protected from creditors in the event of bankruptcy. As mentioned above, it’s clear that the average first time homebuyer in the past few years has little in the way of savings, so that should not prove to be a significant foreclosure deterrent. However, should a homeowner consider defaulting, their financial assets can be protected by investing them in segregated funds, which are issued by a number of insurance companies. This is a little-known fact, but I can’t help but think that people will figure this out as the correction intensifies.

    Considering the comment about the “irresponsible majority” earlier in this thread, would the federal leader of the offical opposition, “11 Mortgage Mulcair”, seem like more man of the people than the present leader “Harper The Axe”?

    Mulcair: http://www.torontosun.com/2012/05/28/mulcair-remortgaged-home-11-times

    Harper: http://www.harper-watch.ca/promises/harper-plans-80000-job-cuts-public-servants/

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    Bag it and tag it Says:
    240

    @VMD: ‘For sellers who have to sell, the only way out is to cut prices… not just 5%, a much deeper cut of 10% to 15% is required.’

    ..but don’t worry homeowners, …prices are stable

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    Anonymous Says:
    241

    Hockey lost. The problem is the commissioner. He should join his brother in the poker world or go back to to being a lawyer.

    “Bettman was born in Queens, New York. He studied Industrial and Labor Relations at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, where he was a brother of the Alpha Epsilon Pi Fraternity, and graduated in 1974. After receiving a Juris Doctor degree from New York University School of Law in 1977, Bettman joined the New York City law firm of Proskauer Rose Goetz & Mendelsohn.

    Bettman is Jewish and lives with his wife, Shelli, and their three children Lauren, Jordan, and Brittany. He is a resident of Saddle River, New Jersey.[7] Half brother Jeffrey Pollack was the Commissioner of the World Series of Poker.[8]”

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    HAM Solo Says:
    242

    Well, it was an interesting discussion. We’ll just have to see what happens. I kind of think that there’s going to be some actual people bailed out by printed up money. Not today, but once this thing gathers a bit of momentum, I don’t think the gov’t of the day is going to have much of a choice. For some reason, on this site, that’s not a popular point of view. Anywhere else they would tell you there isn’t going to be a crash. Here no one thinks a recovery of any kind can be juiced by any amount of printed cash or legal tricks or tax changes. Let’s come back to this subject some point in the future.

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    Vancouver Says:
    243

    betamax – I get it now.. the guy is a Vancouverite :P

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    Vancouver Says:
    244

    So much cheaper to buy vs rent now in Vancouver.

    1-bedroom downtown is $1650 to $1700 = $20,000 per year.

    $75,000 down-payment
    $300,000 mortgage at 3% = $9,000
    Property Tax = $1,300
    Strata fees = $2,700
    Total = $13,000 per year.

    SAVINGS $7,000 or about 10% return on down-payment.

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    Painted turtle Says:
    245

    @vancouver

    Find a better calculator!!! I obtain $22,000 for buying. Bad return on investment for your $70,000…

    Nice try ;) Are you a realtor?

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    Dukes of Moral Hazardous Says:
    246

    @Vancouver: “$75,000 down-payment”

    Say you did this deal. Is there any way of wringing out say $60,000 of the down-payment and putting it into a segregated annuity? Eg: Drain the collateral down to 5% and then plead DK when it can’t be rented out. DK = Didn’t Know.

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    @HAM Solo: Don’t you think a bailout will not occur until there’s substantial pain, e.g. 30-40% drop? If you think the bailout will happen when there’s a 10% drop, then there should have been bailout already given average prices have dropped by 12%.

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    popgoesthebubble Says:
    248

    Ok I am getting tired of waiting. When is this damn thing going to pop? I don’t want 1% drops, I want 30-40%! What’s going to be the triggering event?

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    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    249

    @Painted turtle:

    I imagine the $9k is just the interest.

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    Vancouver Says:
    250

    Painted turtle – hard time following my math?

    Just showing that anyone can make their dream happen and buy a property and save a ton of money versus renting.

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    Vancouver Says:
    251

    Of course all you use is interest. It is the cost going out. The rest of the mortgage payment is going back into your pocket.

    I can help anyone do a calculation on any property they think is good value. We can stop the madness of renting.

    We all need to spend wisely and save wisely. So stop paying your landlords mortgages.

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    Vancouver Says:
    252

    So much cheaper to buy vs rent now in Vancouver.

    1-bedroom downtown is $1650 to $1700 = $20,000 per year.

    $75,000 down-payment
    $300,000 mortgage at 3% = $9,000
    Property Tax = $1,300
    Strata fees = $2,700
    Total = $13,000 per year.

    SAVINGS $7,000 or about 10% return on down-payment.

    I will repost until this is not foreclosed on.

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    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    253

    @Vancouver:

    The property tax estimate is too high – a resident owner would likely qualify for a discount.

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    Vancouver Says:
    254

    Vote Down The Facts – I know I was being conservative so people couldn’t find any holes in the math. Thanks tho.

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    4SlicesofCheese Says:
    255

    A 300k mortgage at 3% even at 30 year amortization is $1,262

    How did you come up with 9k a year?

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    Vancouver Says:
    256

    4SlicesofCheese – Just use the interest to figure out cost. The rest of the payment is your money. The rest pays down your mortgage.

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    Anyone know anything about the fancy development on Granville and 16th?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    I don’t see many $375K apartments downtown renting for $1700 – I’m sure there are a few but not typical. More like $1600 = $400K which cuts into your numbers by about $4K and that $75K down payment can easily earn 4% after tax in very safe investments so a $3K opportunity cost.

    Now the return is 0% – costs when things go wrong and need fixing not to mention the equity that is about to disappear with falling prices, the $10K or so in PTT and legal / inspection fees up front and another $15K in realtor fees when you sell.

    Great deal.

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    Vote Down The Facts Says:
    259

    @An Observer:

    Closing costs would be about $1200-$1500, and a FTB would get an exemption on the PTT.

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    4SlicesofCheese Says:
    260

    “4SlicesofCheese – Just use the interest to figure out cost. The rest of the payment is your money. The rest pays down your mortgage.”

    That is what I did, I used a mortgage calculator from a realtors site and it gave me $1,262/month for a 300k mortgage at 3% for 30 years.

    Can you show me how you got 9k/ year for a 300k mortgage at 3%?
    I am honestly curious, maybe it is cheaper than I thought if I can borrow your math.

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    4SlicesofCheese Says:
    261

    Oh duh I get it. you are only calculating interest.

    But still only saying it is 9000 a year is misleading, even though the rest goes to principle, you have to add it to your budget. That money has to come from somewhere.

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    Girlbear Says:
    262

    UPDATE 1-Canadian existing home sales drop in August
    17 Sep 2012 09:54 ET

    * Sales down 5.8 pct m/m, 8.9 pct on year

    * Declines seen across most of country

    * Tighter mortgage rules have cut demand – economist

    TORONTO, Sept 17 (Reuters) – Sales of existing homes in Canada dropped in August from July, notching the biggest month-over-month decline in more than two years, the Canadian Real Estate Association said on Monday in another sign Canada’s long real estate boom is cooling.

    The industry group for Canadian real estate agents said sales activity was down 5.8 percent in August from July. Actual sales for August, not seasonally adjusted, were down 8.9 percent from a year earlier.

    “While we always caution that housing market trends at the national level can and do run counter to trends in many local markets, the decline in activity in August was definitely the result of much of the country moving in the same direction,” CREA President Wayne Moen said in a statement.

    Sales declines were reported in about two-thirds of local markets representing 80 percent of national activity, with monthly sales drops in almost all large urban centers, including Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, the Fraser Valley in British Columbia, Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa.

    The real estate group said a move by the Canadian government to tighten mortgage lending rules and limit the amount of debt new homeowners can take on to buy a house has dampened demand, just as the government had hoped it would.

    “August’s sales figures will no doubt provide comfort to policymakers, providing the first clear indication that the recent changes to mortgage regulations aimed at cooling the market are working as intended,” Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, said in a statement.

    The group said a total of 334,208 homes have changed hands over Canadian Multiple Listing Service systems so far this year. That represents a 2.8 percent increase compared with levels reported over the first eight months of 2011 but a narrowing of the 4.5 percent lead for year-to-date sales activity in July.

    The national average price for homes sold in August, not seasonally adjusted, was C$350,192 ($361,022), up 0.3 percent from the same month last year.

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    Vancouver Says:
    263

    4SlicesofCheese – Are you 4 slices of dumb?

    The money is savings, it doesn’t come from anywhere.

    I bet you have debt cause you are so dumb!

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    Vancouver Says:
    264

    So much cheaper to buy vs rent now in Vancouver.

    1-bedroom downtown is $1650 to $1700 = $20,000 per year.

    $75,000 down-payment
    $300,000 mortgage at 3% = $9,000
    Property Tax = $1,300
    Strata fees = $2,700
    Total = $13,000 per year.

    SAVINGS $7,000 or about 10% return on down-payment.

    I will repost until this is not foreclosed on…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Vancouver Says:
    265

    4SlicesofCheese – hey dumb! not only is it $9,000. But once you make the first payment and each payment after that the amount declines :)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

    @Vancouver: at 3% = $9k on a 300k mortage you are paying only interest and none of the principle. what is the amortization for this mortgage? Infinity?

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    […] home was purchased in 2007 for $540,000! Thats 16% below the 2007 price!” – Groundhog at VCI 15 Sep 2012 11:24am Share: This entry was posted in 11. Regrets about Investing in RE and tagged Anecdotes, British […]

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    Anonymous Says:
    268

    Hi

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