Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again! Let’s wrap up the work week with our regular news round-up and open topic discussion thread.  Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

Inventory inches up
Canada’s housing crash begins
BC slowdown signals wider slump
No Cam, thats not what happened
Mommy, can I borrow the car?
Vancouvers economic well-being
No more land, lots more condos
Tiny little boxes
25% drop in Vancouver?
Come back to BC!
Why rent?

 

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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patriotz
Member

Just watched the CBC report from Thursday PM. Very disappointed that they did not touch on the fundamental (no pun) issue – ownership costs versus rents. Prices in Vancouver for all forms of housing in all districts are massively out of proportion to actual economic value. This shows that the RE prices in Vancouver have nothing to do with the amenities which the program touts, which of course are equally available to renters.

Garth should have brought this up (perhaps he did and was edited out), but everything that he said was spot on. The best being that there is a limit to consumer indebtedness – which is the straw that is going to break the back of this camel.

Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
Guest
Keeping An Eye On The Pimps

“So I ran that thesis past Robert Shiller, of Yale University, probably the foremost authority on real estate in America. He co-founded the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and predicted the American collapse in 2005, a year before it happened.

“I worry,” he told me, “that what is happening in Canada is kind of a slow-motion version of what happened in the U.S.””

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/09/20/f-rfa-macdonald-housing-prices.html

Not me,I ‘m not worried at all,nothing wrong with prices reverting back to where they should be.

patriotz
Member

@Keeping An Eye On The Pimps:
2005:

The bubble is building in “glamour cities and glamour vacation areas” in the United States and Canada. Ominously, Prof. Shiller says that “Vancouver is the most bubbly city in the world.” He says that city has a history of volatile housing prices but he doesn’t see the same level of bubbliness in the rest of the country’s housing market.

Seven years later, Vancouver has confirmed Shiller’s characterisation and the rest of the Canada has a bubble as big as the US had then.

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow

A friend of mine just made an offer on a place for $238k (subject to financing). Curious to see if she’ll get approved for the mortgage since her income is about $33k per year. She’s buying it with about $40k down, actually buying it with her significant other, but just wants her name on the title so “next time we buy we can use his first time home buyer credit”. (Oh ya, and he has no documented income anyway). She was approved for $150k mortgage under the old rules (30 years), not sure why she’s thinking she’ll magically get approved for more under the new rules.

Troll
Guest
Troll

The National Story last night was horrible.

A realtor lying about the listing price for his home, it was never listed at $1.57M, in fact it is currently listed at $1.373M! Nice fact checking CBC.

And a real estate marketing specialist claiming when a condo comes up for rent in the ‘borough’ of Yaletown, that 40 people will line up to rent it. Ignoring the fact that a statement like that doesn’t even pass the smell test, that kind of supply/demand mismatch would put a huge upward pressure on rents. And we know that rents are going essentially nowhere.

Very disappointing effort from the CBC. Would have much preferred to have had the group from the roundtable discussion from the previous night to actually go through some of the numbers and metrics for the Vancouver market.

real_professional
Member

@ patriotz,

The editing in TV news is brutal I’ve seen 30 minute interviews turned into a 10 second sound bite.

Sadly, If one wants in-depth understanding one can’t go to the TV news. I had my fingers crossed for the CBC segment too – but I was disappointed.

The worst part was that loser that compares Vancouver to Manhattan. Also that guy selling the house that says, “Get off the sidelines, take some risk, get into the game”… ha ha, He should have said, “Get into the game PLEASE, I have to get rid of this house – take some risk off of me”

He made me smile

jesse
Member

@Troll: “The National Story last night was horrible”

I thought the Neil McDonald piece was decent. Agree that what they clipped from Garth Turner was overall correct, but they should have given both “sides” a rebuttal.

N
Guest
N
@real_professional: Yes, the piece sucked. They asked a guy selling something if it was a good idea for people to buy it and treated his answer like a credible data point, they let the lie about the forty people lining up stand, and used only shots of beaches and cafes in the sunshine, without any shots of Kingsgate mall in the rain. That said, they got on the TV and said “bubble” and “crash.” And that will be enough to change the tone of the conversation and make people think about whether we might be at the top. A few months back, when I told my landlady, as I often have in the past, that I think prices will fall, she said, “Why would they?” That’s the attitude that has propped up prices: the failure to even consider price drops.… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Just heard that Vanilla Ice is doing a reality TV show about flipping real estate in the US.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@real_professional:

Phil Chan did the best Tom Vu impression I’ve seen in a long time.

Come on, get in the game!

jay
Guest

One thing missing

From the CBC show and all other talks regarding Vancouver’s housing price, no one mentioned that foreign money played a big role here.

I think in Vancouver in the last few years most of 3 millions + houses are bought by money from overseas. This made the “average price” go through the roof and it has little to do with local economy, unemployment and mortgage rate etc.

Yes, too many condo built, and I am expecting a 30% drop by next spring.

“40 people line up to rent” is a lie.

crashcow
Member

New article out: How Canada resembles a slow-motion replay of the American crash

“I watched America’s nightmare unfold, and it appears pretty evident to me that a sequel of some sort is coming to Canada.”

“Nosebleed levels of debt”

“People are investing in real estate that is tough for their budgets because they think it will make them rich. When prices stop increasing, people back off, and the bubble then collapses.”

“It was not the financial crisis that burst the American housing bubble. Rather, when the groupthink that caused the bubble turned, the market collapsed”

Mick Murphy
Guest
Mick Murphy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qe61HVGIwUo

TD scamming home buyers on home insurance

Scott
Guest
Scott

@Troll: the ‘borough’ of Yaletown

That’s a simple misunderstanding, he was referring to a burrow in Yaletown. You know, a small dark box in the sky suitable for housing rabbits.

an observer
Guest
In the CBC interview Philip Chan lied about the current price and the current drop. The reporter also said that the original price was including tax but that’s also false unless he has a habit of listing new homes with HST included and not mentioning that huge point in the description. I happen to have all of the old descriptions for this unit and HST being included was never mentioned. This is the description back in May: “Brand new front unit with south facing yard. Feels like a half duplex. Great spacious floor plan with 1,721 SqFt living area, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a heated garage with 1 underground parking and a unique turn table parking feature! This home, built by a German builder features quality luxury finishes and excellent craftsmanship & woodwork throughout, such as high coffered ceiling,… Read more »
gordholio
Member
You guys all bring up great points about The National piece last night. BPOM, I too immediately thought Tom Vu when that no-brain sleazeball started yapping about “getting in the game.” Seriously, who can watch that particular bit without thinking the guy’s total pond scum? And who knows how heavily Garth was edited. I do know it was essentially two RE industry slime vs one Garth. Though I’ve been disappointed in the past when Garth seems to tone down his fire for TV spots. Maybe he’s just concerned that if he’s TOO Garth, too *real*, he’ll be edited even more than he already, undoubtedly is. One thing is certain: Increasingly as this crash unfolds, bulls are being forced to do what bulls do best – spew bullshit. Sewerville, Muir, Tom Vu, Rennie – they’re all just straight up lying these… Read more »
A Nation of "Amway" House Ponzi Morons
Guest
A Nation of "Amway" House Ponzi Morons

“Slow Motion USA”

Real estate prices are still high in Canada for the same reason Amway is still profitable and running video ads on CBC’s online properties…

The existence of CBC Amway ads really pisses me off because it shows how gullible and slow Canadians really are in street smarts. Amway is dead and gone in every other jurisdiction, but here in Canada there’s a significant population of shit for brains people who think it’s a brand new and undiscovered way to make money!

Canada is a haven and incubator for all manner of obvious ponzi schemes besides real estate:

http://www.pyramidschemealert.org/PSAMain/news/BusinessInMotion.Scam.html

Tom Vu
Guest
Tom Vu
Hello Friends, I am glad you enjoyed Mr. Chan’s quotes from TV, he was an excellent student of mine! Today only, I present to you, 10 of my all time favorite quotes. Now, get off your butt you loser and start making money! 1.“There’s an old American saying. It’s called, ‘Get off your butt and do it!’” 2.“Today I could relax and enjoy life around my mansion. Watch the waterfall in the front, the waterfall in the back…the waterfall inside the house. I get tired of hearing the water running.” 3.“Don’t listen to your friends. They’re losers!” 4.“If you’re not willing to spend three free hours to learn from a self-made millionaire to maximize your opportunity, you deserve to be broke!” 5.“I hope you enjoy seeing my waterfall as much as I do. I built this water fountain right in… Read more »
Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Look at all these current and future condo projects that Mac Marketing is involved with, spanning the many boroughs of Vancouver.

http://www.macmarketingsolutions.com/projects/

More like 40 specuvestors lined up for every 1 prospective tenant.

McLovin
Guest
McLovin

Garth was edited. I do know it was essentially two RE industry slime vs one Garth. Though I’ve been disappointed in the past when Garth seems to tone down his fire for TV spots. Maybe he’s just concerned that if he’s TOO Garth, too *real*, he’ll be edited even more than he already, undoubtedly is.

Many people do not know that Garth is a fee for service investment advisor with Raymond James. The blog is not done out of the goodness of his heart. It is to sell books and get new clients. If he comes off as a crazy it might turn people off right or wrong.

McLovin
Guest
McLovin
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
To describe Yaletown as a “borough” of Vancouver is wrong at 2 levels. First, it is wrong to imply that Vancouver is equivalent to New Yor, given the huge differences in population, economic prowess, global political significance. Second, the realtor is showing he does not understand what boroughs are in New York. Boroughs are not the same thing as neighbourhoods. Boroughs are much larger than a single neighbourhood. The realtor does not understand the geographic concept of scale. Boroughs are essentially at the same scale of cities, containing several neighbourhoods within them. There are 5 boroughs in New York City: Manhattan, Bronx, Brookly, Queens, Staten Island. Each one of these boroughs could be their own city in their own right. Each one of these boroughs contains several neighbourhoods within them. Flushing and Astoria are two of the many neighbourhoods in… Read more »
Proud and extremely rich Chinese home owners
Guest
Proud and extremely rich Chinese home owners

@patriotz: Your idiotic prediction has been said,copy and repeat million times since 2002 but unfortunately no matter how justifiable,orthodox and holy,Chinese buying power and holding power in Vancouver Real Estate shatter the Holy Gail.Vancouver is unique because 80% of Van RE are controlled by Mailand Chinese.

Troll
Guest
Troll

@Anonymous: Re: borough discussion, you lost Cam at “hello”.

zonk
Guest
zonk
@Anonymous: Gentlemen, let’s not quibble about terminology. I think we all can agree that in the galaxy of Vancouver the country of Yaletown is a terrific investment. I myself am looking to purchase a 2nd hand presale option on a luxurious 350 square foot burrow there and am looking forward to the many renters that wish to pay a portion of my bills. An acquaintance of mine owns partial share in junior 1 bedroom and when he listed it on craigslist (complete with luxurious Ikea furnishings) he had 4 people lining up to rent it. Respectable people who work in the farming and chemistry industry. These gentlemen had facial tattoos and were very curious about security, ventilation and power supply in the suite. Clearly dream tenants who will take good care of the property and pay a rent that will… Read more »
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