Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again! Let’s wrap up the work week with our regular news round-up and open topic discussion thread.  Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

Inventory inches up
Canada’s housing crash begins
BC slowdown signals wider slump
No Cam, thats not what happened
Mommy, can I borrow the car?
Vancouvers economic well-being
No more land, lots more condos
Tiny little boxes
25% drop in Vancouver?
Come back to BC!
Why rent?

 

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
patriotz
Member
3 years 10 months ago
Just watched the CBC report from Thursday PM. Very disappointed that they did not touch on the fundamental (no pun) issue – ownership costs versus rents. Prices in Vancouver for all forms of housing in all districts are massively out of proportion to actual economic value. This shows that the RE prices in Vancouver have nothing to do with the amenities which the program touts, which of course are equally available to renters. Garth should have brought this up (perhaps he did and was edited out), but everything that he said was spot on. The best being that there is… Read more »
Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
Guest
Keeping An Eye On The Pimps
3 years 10 months ago

“So I ran that thesis past Robert Shiller, of Yale University, probably the foremost authority on real estate in America. He co-founded the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and predicted the American collapse in 2005, a year before it happened.

“I worry,” he told me, “that what is happening in Canada is kind of a slow-motion version of what happened in the U.S.””

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/09/20/f-rfa-macdonald-housing-prices.html

Not me,I ‘m not worried at all,nothing wrong with prices reverting back to where they should be.

patriotz
Member
3 years 10 months ago

@Keeping An Eye On The Pimps:
2005:

The bubble is building in “glamour cities and glamour vacation areas” in the United States and Canada. Ominously, Prof. Shiller says that “Vancouver is the most bubbly city in the world.” He says that city has a history of volatile housing prices but he doesn’t see the same level of bubbliness in the rest of the country’s housing market.

Seven years later, Vancouver has confirmed Shiller’s characterisation and the rest of the Canada has a bubble as big as the US had then.

pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow
3 years 10 months ago
A friend of mine just made an offer on a place for $238k (subject to financing). Curious to see if she’ll get approved for the mortgage since her income is about $33k per year. She’s buying it with about $40k down, actually buying it with her significant other, but just wants her name on the title so “next time we buy we can use his first time home buyer credit”. (Oh ya, and he has no documented income anyway). She was approved for $150k mortgage under the old rules (30 years), not sure why she’s thinking she’ll magically get approved… Read more »
Troll
Guest
Troll
3 years 10 months ago
The National Story last night was horrible. A realtor lying about the listing price for his home, it was never listed at $1.57M, in fact it is currently listed at $1.373M! Nice fact checking CBC. And a real estate marketing specialist claiming when a condo comes up for rent in the ‘borough’ of Yaletown, that 40 people will line up to rent it. Ignoring the fact that a statement like that doesn’t even pass the smell test, that kind of supply/demand mismatch would put a huge upward pressure on rents. And we know that rents are going essentially nowhere. Very… Read more »
real_professional
Member
3 years 10 months ago
@ patriotz, The editing in TV news is brutal I’ve seen 30 minute interviews turned into a 10 second sound bite. Sadly, If one wants in-depth understanding one can’t go to the TV news. I had my fingers crossed for the CBC segment too – but I was disappointed. The worst part was that loser that compares Vancouver to Manhattan. Also that guy selling the house that says, “Get off the sidelines, take some risk, get into the game”… ha ha, He should have said, “Get into the game PLEASE, I have to get rid of this house – take… Read more »
jesse
Member
3 years 10 months ago

@Troll: “The National Story last night was horrible”

I thought the Neil McDonald piece was decent. Agree that what they clipped from Garth Turner was overall correct, but they should have given both “sides” a rebuttal.

N
Guest
N
3 years 10 months ago
@real_professional: Yes, the piece sucked. They asked a guy selling something if it was a good idea for people to buy it and treated his answer like a credible data point, they let the lie about the forty people lining up stand, and used only shots of beaches and cafes in the sunshine, without any shots of Kingsgate mall in the rain. That said, they got on the TV and said “bubble” and “crash.” And that will be enough to change the tone of the conversation and make people think about whether we might be at the top. A few… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago

Just heard that Vanilla Ice is doing a reality TV show about flipping real estate in the US.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
3 years 10 months ago

@real_professional:

Phil Chan did the best Tom Vu impression I’ve seen in a long time.

Come on, get in the game!

jay
Guest
3 years 10 months ago

One thing missing

From the CBC show and all other talks regarding Vancouver’s housing price, no one mentioned that foreign money played a big role here.

I think in Vancouver in the last few years most of 3 millions + houses are bought by money from overseas. This made the “average price” go through the roof and it has little to do with local economy, unemployment and mortgage rate etc.

Yes, too many condo built, and I am expecting a 30% drop by next spring.

“40 people line up to rent” is a lie.

crashcow
Member
3 years 10 months ago

New article out: How Canada resembles a slow-motion replay of the American crash

“I watched America’s nightmare unfold, and it appears pretty evident to me that a sequel of some sort is coming to Canada.”

“Nosebleed levels of debt”

“People are investing in real estate that is tough for their budgets because they think it will make them rich. When prices stop increasing, people back off, and the bubble then collapses.”

“It was not the financial crisis that burst the American housing bubble. Rather, when the groupthink that caused the bubble turned, the market collapsed”

Mick Murphy
Guest
Mick Murphy
3 years 10 months ago

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qe61HVGIwUo

TD scamming home buyers on home insurance

Scott
Guest
Scott
3 years 10 months ago

@Troll: the ‘borough’ of Yaletown

That’s a simple misunderstanding, he was referring to a burrow in Yaletown. You know, a small dark box in the sky suitable for housing rabbits.

an observer
Guest
3 years 10 months ago
In the CBC interview Philip Chan lied about the current price and the current drop. The reporter also said that the original price was including tax but that’s also false unless he has a habit of listing new homes with HST included and not mentioning that huge point in the description. I happen to have all of the old descriptions for this unit and HST being included was never mentioned. This is the description back in May: “Brand new front unit with south facing yard. Feels like a half duplex. Great spacious floor plan with 1,721 SqFt living area, 3… Read more »
gordholio
Member
3 years 10 months ago
You guys all bring up great points about The National piece last night. BPOM, I too immediately thought Tom Vu when that no-brain sleazeball started yapping about “getting in the game.” Seriously, who can watch that particular bit without thinking the guy’s total pond scum? And who knows how heavily Garth was edited. I do know it was essentially two RE industry slime vs one Garth. Though I’ve been disappointed in the past when Garth seems to tone down his fire for TV spots. Maybe he’s just concerned that if he’s TOO Garth, too *real*, he’ll be edited even more… Read more »
A Nation of "Amway" House Ponzi Morons
Guest
A Nation of "Amway" House Ponzi Morons
3 years 10 months ago

“Slow Motion USA”

Real estate prices are still high in Canada for the same reason Amway is still profitable and running video ads on CBC’s online properties…

The existence of CBC Amway ads really pisses me off because it shows how gullible and slow Canadians really are in street smarts. Amway is dead and gone in every other jurisdiction, but here in Canada there’s a significant population of shit for brains people who think it’s a brand new and undiscovered way to make money!

Canada is a haven and incubator for all manner of obvious ponzi schemes besides real estate:

http://www.pyramidschemealert.org/PSAMain/news/BusinessInMotion.Scam.html

Tom Vu
Guest
Tom Vu
3 years 10 months ago
Hello Friends, I am glad you enjoyed Mr. Chan’s quotes from TV, he was an excellent student of mine! Today only, I present to you, 10 of my all time favorite quotes. Now, get off your butt you loser and start making money! 1.“There’s an old American saying. It’s called, ‘Get off your butt and do it!’” 2.“Today I could relax and enjoy life around my mansion. Watch the waterfall in the front, the waterfall in the back…the waterfall inside the house. I get tired of hearing the water running.” 3.“Don’t listen to your friends. They’re losers!” 4.“If you’re not… Read more »
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
3 years 10 months ago

Look at all these current and future condo projects that Mac Marketing is involved with, spanning the many boroughs of Vancouver.

http://www.macmarketingsolutions.com/projects/

More like 40 specuvestors lined up for every 1 prospective tenant.

McLovin
Guest
McLovin
3 years 10 months ago
Garth was edited. I do know it was essentially two RE industry slime vs one Garth. Though I’ve been disappointed in the past when Garth seems to tone down his fire for TV spots. Maybe he’s just concerned that if he’s TOO Garth, too *real*, he’ll be edited even more than he already, undoubtedly is. Many people do not know that Garth is a fee for service investment advisor with Raymond James. The blog is not done out of the goodness of his heart. It is to sell books and get new clients. If he comes off as a crazy… Read more »
McLovin
Guest
McLovin
3 years 10 months ago
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago
To describe Yaletown as a “borough” of Vancouver is wrong at 2 levels. First, it is wrong to imply that Vancouver is equivalent to New Yor, given the huge differences in population, economic prowess, global political significance. Second, the realtor is showing he does not understand what boroughs are in New York. Boroughs are not the same thing as neighbourhoods. Boroughs are much larger than a single neighbourhood. The realtor does not understand the geographic concept of scale. Boroughs are essentially at the same scale of cities, containing several neighbourhoods within them. There are 5 boroughs in New York City:… Read more »
Proud and extremely rich Chinese home owners
Guest
Proud and extremely rich Chinese home owners
3 years 10 months ago

@patriotz: Your idiotic prediction has been said,copy and repeat million times since 2002 but unfortunately no matter how justifiable,orthodox and holy,Chinese buying power and holding power in Vancouver Real Estate shatter the Holy Gail.Vancouver is unique because 80% of Van RE are controlled by Mailand Chinese.

Troll
Guest
Troll
3 years 10 months ago

@Anonymous: Re: borough discussion, you lost Cam at “hello”.

zonk
Guest
zonk
3 years 10 months ago
@Anonymous: Gentlemen, let’s not quibble about terminology. I think we all can agree that in the galaxy of Vancouver the country of Yaletown is a terrific investment. I myself am looking to purchase a 2nd hand presale option on a luxurious 350 square foot burrow there and am looking forward to the many renters that wish to pay a portion of my bills. An acquaintance of mine owns partial share in junior 1 bedroom and when he listed it on craigslist (complete with luxurious Ikea furnishings) he had 4 people lining up to rent it. Respectable people who work in… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago

of course, stupid bears disappointed at the pieces because it didnt mention the crash! what else is new?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago

@patriotz: “Garth should have brought this up …”

well, he was not edited. for the first time, he learned to keep his mouth shut. when will you learn?

Sidelines
Guest
Sidelines
3 years 10 months ago

Supposed to be sunny today… Maybe this will help brighten things up: North Van listing V949678)- 4785 Capilano Rd. Was $1.15M, then $1.025M, now $888K (lucky 8s!). Assessed at $969K.

Re-diculous
Member
Re-diculous
3 years 10 months ago

@ Best Place on Meth

Phil Chan did the best Tom Vu impression I’ve seen in a long time.

Come on, get in the game!

….I think its more akin to “Pump and Dump”……The spirit of the good old Vancouver Stock Exchange lives on in Real Estate.

TNT
Guest
TNT
3 years 10 months ago
Also saw the segment last night. Having followed Garth for sometime i have found him to be earnest in his mandate. Sure he is a financial advisor but he doesnt force feed it. On the other hand Neil could care less about the average consumer and made it very clear. How is the average person going to be able to afford a home and rent it out and cover his costs plus live somewhere? The RE cartel turned that piece into a pump A dump, i’m curious what they cut out from Garths dialogue. Also the back ground for Garth… Read more »
wakeupcall
Guest
wakeupcall
3 years 10 months ago

Anybody got Philip Chan’s address, email, phone or fax numbers?

Would just like to remind him that it’s shameful to be dishonest.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting
3 years 10 months ago
The crackdown on fake Canadians who abuse our system and drive up real estate prices is continuing. More measures, like exit tracking, will be used to detect family bread-winners who leave their families in Canada while they work in low-tax countries. Even before such measures are introduced, hopefully it will put a chill on “astronaut Dads” and make them change their ways themselves. http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/09/17/permanent-residents-who-live-abroad-could-lose-status-kenney/ However, Kenney acknowledged it is more difficult to pinpoint another type of case, where a family obtains permanent resident status then the wife and children live in Canada but the husband largely lives and works in… Read more »
Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting
3 years 10 months ago
This is a guide for legal professionals who work with “astronaut” Dads and their families. There is way too much stuff in this link to quote. Just read the whole thing: http://immigratetocanada.blogspot.ca/2012/08/red-china-immigration-blues.html “In several Greater Vancouver municipalities (but nowhere else in B.C.) they are, by a very large margin, the principal consumers of all kinds of luxury goods and services. In residential real estate, for example, it is estimated that over 80% of the $2 million homes sold on Vancouver’s West Side in the last 2 years were bought by Mainland Chinese immigrants. One prominent West Side jewellery store owner… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago

@wakeupcall: he is dishonest because you can afford a piece of land in the west side?

s
Guest
s
3 years 10 months ago

@Anonymous

Philip Chan’s dishonest cuz he’s trying to peddle his property like those penny stock brokers in Vancouver trying to offload their crap to anyone they can con.

He’s trying flip a property before the market goes bad, he knows it. Lowered price by 400K but keeps telling people to buy.

Obviously his actions don’t match his words.

bcj
Guest
bcj
3 years 10 months ago

@ Patiently waiting

Fascinating, thanks. The conclusion is cleverly understated:

“Unclear about their legal rights and obligations as Canadian immigrants, tax residents, and homeowners, and with no experience passing wealth from generation to generation, their failure to plan or even identify the issues will increasingly generate interesting legal work for tax, trust, estate, family, immigration and real estate law practitioners.”

Translation:

“When these guys croak, we’re going to make a shitload of cash.”

Simple
Guest
Simple
3 years 10 months ago
OK. How has this Vancouver = Manhattan argument gone on so long? Is it the old “Well they are not making any more land” bullshit? Well lets look at that. Area: Manhattan = 60sqkm, Vancouver = 115sqkm Population: Manhattan = 1.6 million, Vancouver = 0.6 million So Manhattan has nearly three times the number of people in roughly half the space. And lets not even get into the average incomes…. The next person to claim that Vancouver = Manhattan is getting a wedgie. In fact, does anyone know which US city Vancouver ACTUALLY resembles based on population density? It would… Read more »
oneangryslav2
Guest
oneangryslav2
3 years 10 months ago
@Patiently Waiting: “In the future, under the exit information system, when permanent residents are leaving the country they will have to swipe their PR card on the way out and then of course on the way back in so we will know electronically exactly how many days they spent in Canada.”“ Why this is not SOP already is mystifying! It’s obvious that this system needs not be in place for citizens, since residency requirements do not apply. But when there are specific requirements (at least 2 out of 5 years) that determine whether residency status is being met, then it… Read more »
Ravishing Rick
Member
Ravishing Rick
3 years 10 months ago

Cut the Music!

To all you overweight, risk averse sweat hogs, shut it, and let me show you how a real man gets off the sidelines and into the game!

Last night on CBC, I had my PVR ready because I thought at any minute Phil Chan was going to breakout into an awkward rendition of Ricky Martin’s “She Bangs, She Bangs”

…. by PVR I mean my Beta Max.

Hit the music, William Hung style!

Makaya
Member
Makaya
3 years 10 months ago
We were so absorbed by the National piece on Vancouver yesterday that we missed this GM article. The title couldn’t be clearer: Housing market will crash: research firm Get ready for a Canadian housing crash. That’s the forecast from the folks at research firm Capital Economics, who say the collapse in house prices will feed into economic weakness and cause the Bank of Canada to back track on its insistence that the next move in domestic interest rates will be up. “Home sales have slumped in recent months, not just in response to the tightening of mortgage lending standards. We… Read more »
gokou3
Guest
gokou3
3 years 10 months ago
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous
3 years 10 months ago
@Simple: “In fact, does anyone know which US city Vancouver ACTUALLY resembles based on population density?” Vancouve Census Metropitan Area has a population of 2.3 million. Here are some USA Metropolitan Statistical Areas with similar populations to Vancouver CMA: Denver, CO: 2.6 million Pittsburgh, PA: 2.4 million Portland, OR: 2.2 million San Antonio, TX: 2.1 million Sacramento, CA: 2.1 million Orlando, FL: 2.1 million Cincinnati, OH: 2.1 million Cleveland, OH: 2.1 million Kansas City, MO-KS: 2.0 million Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_metropolitan_statistical_areas Granted, this is total population of metropolitan regions. This is not population density, which is what you asked for. To get… Read more »
ArthurFonzarelli
Guest
ArthurFonzarelli
3 years 10 months ago
I thought the Vancouver-specific component of the series was horribly researched and presented as well. In the interests of impartiality, they should take two individuals from opposing camps who have little or no vested interest in the market… not one with little vested interest (Garth) and then several directly downstream from benefits of an inflated market. Seriously, getting their perspective is like asking the guy selling you buck-a-slice his opinion on wheat futures. I thought the following component on the overall Canadian market, particularly bringing in Shiller, was much better. It also made me think that those on this forum… Read more »
Ravishing Rick
Member
Ravishing Rick
3 years 10 months ago

I’m convinced: Phil Chan = William Hung

They are the same person!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TS5tvbYJsc

Hit the music!

yvr2zrh
Member
3 years 10 months ago
Finally had a chance to watch the CBC feed from last night. What’s Amazing is that from outside Vancouver, Cam M. and the Chinese guy both look delusional – – – Vancouver is nice – but it is nothing more than a tier 4 city when it comes to business and a city that is supported by debt and foreign investment. Without both of those – it has no hope of sustaining its prices. The level of the floor – nobody knows. Off to Munich in the morning – – That place is having a “World Class Party” that starts… Read more »
Aleksey
Guest
Aleksey
3 years 10 months ago

I listened to The Peak FM in a morning and in the news section they were talking about Garth Turner prediciting 30% price decline in Vancouver in the next couple of months. Right after that they played “Loser” by Beck.

I’m not quite sure if it was the reference to Garth or people who bought a house in Vancouver during last several years =)

gokou3
Guest
gokou3
3 years 10 months ago
Just got an email from the Cambie+7 sales team: “Construction Start Purchase Incentive To celebrate the commencement of construction at Cambie+7, the developer has offered a $10,000 Purchase Incentive for the FIRST 5 HOMES sold on the last weekend of September (Sept. 29 and 30). Don’t miss out on this great opportunity. Come to our presentation centre to preview today so you can be one of the Lucky 5! Super Investor Package Our Best Value Highest Return Collection are perfect for investors. Priced in the $600’s / SF, buyers save $60,000 to $100,000 over comparable developments. To make this even… Read more »
pricedoutfornow
Guest
pricedoutfornow
3 years 10 months ago
Been spending the day trying to talk my friend out of buying a place. She admitted to me “Ya, if we buy this place we are pretty much going to be broke”-her mortgage will be about $600 every two weeks and she only makes about $800 every two weeks-though her significant other (of questionable employment) says he will pay his share. I told her not to underestimate the cost of homeownership, it’s going to be pricey considering heating costs (it’s a house), home insurance, property taxes etc etc. AND interest rates are going up soon(ish)! Not sure why they are… Read more »
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
3 years 10 months ago

@gokou3:

Oooh, 1.5% off – I’m so there.

They should have made it the Lucky 8.

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo
3 years 10 months ago
Another anecdote from today. Had lunch with an old friend, who is a fairly successful IT entrepreneur. Was living in “million dollar” east side house. However, now his brother-in-law has decided he wants to bail from Vancouver to live in Whistler, my friend had to sell his house because the brother-in-law had lent him a few hundred grand to “get into the market.” Now the brother-in-law needs his money back. And, of course, my friend’s house is not selling. Meanwhile, the B-I-L has already bought in Whistler but his house in Vancouver not selling either. There must be thousands of… Read more »
wpDiscuz