Friday Free-for-all!

Yeah! It’s the end of another work week and that means it’s time for our regular news round-up and open topic discussion thread.  Let’s wrap up September with some weekend chat, here are a few recent links to kick things off:

Inventory graph keeps climbing
An economy based on house prices
$150k deductible for water damage
Ian gets bearish
I said Watt?
No Smoking
If no one can buy, then what?
Home of the weak
Teranet decline by month
Immigrants move to Saskatchewan
Vancouver 2012 layoffs
Council wonders why you’re isolated & resentful

Based on current sales numbers this month we need to see a big sales day today to make September 2012 sales numbers come out ahead of September 2008.  Makaya estimates that we need to see 101 or more sales today or we’ll be coming in lower than 2008.  Keep an eye on the comments for daily numbers from Paulb to see what happens.  It will be interesting to see how the newspapers and REBGV press release cover these sales numbers.

On a side note our new comment rating system has been tweaked a bit.  This site gets way too much traffic for the default settings to work, so we’ve upped comment highlighting to start at +10 and we’ve dropped comment hiding to -8 giving it a foreclosure stage before it disappears.  If you see a negatively rated comment that you disagree with but is honestly presented (ie not a troll) please consider not voting it down further.  It would be nice to reserve comment hiding for the real trolls.

Feedback is welcome to these tweaks, we’ll adjust further if necessary.

And on to the chat! So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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registered
Member
registered

Re: Council wonders why you’re isolated & resentful

First line of article:

“Vancouver may seem like a paradise…”

Done in one.

patriotz
Member

B.C. property prices a lesson for provinces

The slump in British Columbia’s real estate market serves as a cautionary note for other provinces that are bracing for bumps in economic growth.

When homes slip in price, consumers rein in spending, producing a ripple effect on local merchants and slowing down the broader economy.

Jacques Marcil, senior economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, points to British Columbia as a signpost that the rest of the country should pay attention to because the province’s average resale home prices have fallen this year – the only province experiencing a decrease from last year’s average.

Looks like BC is the canary in the coal mine – or maybe the drunk at the rave is putting it better.

Dan in Calgary
Guest
Dan in Calgary

@patriotz, “the drunk at the rave”.

Vancouver, definitely. But that’s putting it nicely, lol.

Bo Xilai
Guest
Bo Xilai

I really think Vancouver sellers have to lay off the crack pipe… Check out this beauty…

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=12270343&PidKey=-218599722

Originally listed July 5 at 1.03M

nothing, nothing…

Then dropped to 899K on August 2nd

nothing, nothing, no bidding wars, as anticipated…

Then INCREASED to 979K on August 16th, to get those fence sitters motivated and put in an offer

crickets

Then yesterday INCREASED AGAIN to 1.2M! 16% higher than original!

I love the http://re.olvius.com/ website, just to see just how delusional homeowners in Metro Vancouver really are…

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Bo Xilai: “Then yesterday INCREASED AGAIN to 1.2M! 16% higher than original!”

Maybe the seller decided they didn’t want to sell but had a listing contract with a realtor for say 6 months. Increasing the price by 300K would effectively take it off the market. Considering every person with a buyers agent will know the pricing history no one is going to pay more than the 899K asking last month. It would be worth a phone call to ask the realtor WTF?

rp1
Guest
rp1

“Council wonders why you’re isolated & resentful”

@#%& you! 🙂

buffates
Guest
buffates

People on this board are quick to trash realtors and I completely empathize with that reasoning. What I think is missed here is that realtors are going to be huge allies of the bears in the coming months/years. When they start going hungry they will begin to implore their sellers to drop prices so that they can put food on the table. When that tide change comes it will be EPIC!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

“and young adults who aren’t yet embedded in careers, Reimer said.”

then go and get a career!
the survey called the very people in this blog?

Read more: http://www.theprovince.com/news/Lonely+city+Vancouverites+isolated+resentful+city+council+seeks+answers/7296329/story.html#ixzz27mYbJP96

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

Hi had to take my life in my hands and drive to the Canadian Tire store on No 3 road in Richmond last night. When I got there I was surprised to see the parking lot completely full. Turns out, across the street was some kind of glitzy affair put on by Concord Pacific complete with banquet tents, vintage cars on display (didn’t get a close look but I think they were old British roadsters), live music, and lots of folks all dressed up.

Do people really fall for this kind of crap when being pitched on buying condos that will be worth less by the time they’re built?

an observer
Guest

@Bo Xilai:

Couple more dates prior to the olvius data feed:

March 29 V939819 $1,250,000 $0 0%
April 09 V939819 $1,150,000 $-100,000 -8%

Looks like an upside down bell curve. Why would the realtor even bother with this listing?

N
Guest
N

@fixie guy:

“…one-third find it difficult to make friends in the city, and a quarter are lonely.”

The article does not address the question of whether these numbers are good or bad for a city the size of Vancouver. I’m not sure than having one quarter of the people lonely is particularly high for any community, let alone a city. For example, Wiki (with a pretty good source) says that one fifth of Americans are lonely.

gokou3
Guest
gokou3

@buffates: Agree very much. Realtors are always aligned with money, after all. They just care about the number of transactions, not the price at which they cross.

rp1
Guest
rp1

#9 @Anonymous: “Do people really fall for this kind of crap ”

If they didn’t, do you think we’d see it over and over and *over* again?

ArthurFonzarelli
Guest
ArthurFonzarelli
On the issue of price:income and comparing Vancouver with other major cities in North America, I just came across this recent analysis by HVS Consulting comparing executive pay at luxury hotel properties across North America. It’s kind of like comp analysts’ “Big Mac Index” for the accommodation sector. http://www.hvs.com/article/5791/the-cost-of-luxury-leadership-luxury-general-manager-pay-in/ And guess what… New York, San Fran, L.A., Boston, Miami… all at the top of the list, from $265K/yr in New York to $170K/yr in Miami. Where is Vancouver on that list? Doesn’t show up in the top 50. What?!?!?! Yup – median compensation for Vancouver hotel GMs is $77K. The conclusion of HVS: “New York City and San Francisco consistently rank in the top three cities from a cost of living perspective. It therefore isn’t a big surprise that compensation in these cities is higher than in others.”
TNT
Guest
TNT

For all the house hornsters out there.
Wait for another year and re access, use some of the money you will have saved to go on a holiday.
Stay somewhere nice and affordable, deals and options all over the globe.
Don’t buy into the lie.
Remember the buyers RE agent and the sellers RE agent have one goal.
Your cash.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

If housing goes down too much the Fed will step in and save it, yet again. You bears might be able to get a place for 20% ( if you qualify for financing ).

I suggest you take it. We all know what happened in 2008.

midnite toker
Member
midnite toker

-Council wonders why you’re isolated & resentful?

Too many hipsters ! LOL

Just got back from 10 days Montreal and Ottawa … so different. Also somewhat real estate crazy but not close to Vancouver level , ie : houses in the “nice” part of Mtl are $700000 or $80000, not 1.5 mil

VMD
Member
News Release — Minister Kenney announces new language rules for citizenship applicants Ottawa, September 28, 2012 — Most citizenship applicants will soon be required to provide up-front objective evidence of their language ability at the time they apply This change will be implemented as of November 1, 2012. Currently, Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC) assesses the language ability of applicants, aged 18–54, solely through interactions with CIC staff and by using the results of the citizenship knowledge test. “Extensive research has consistently shown that the ability to communicate effectively in either French or English is a key factor in the success of new citizens in Canada,” said Minister Kenney. “We believe it is important that new citizens to be able to participate fully in our economy and our society.” Under the new rule, applicants must provide objective evidence that they… Read more »
Inventory
Guest
Inventory

Sept unit sales Greater Vancouver (does not include Fraser Valley)
1994 = 2241
1995 = 1951
1996 = 2217
1997 = 2050
1998 = 1755
1999 = 1955
2000 = 1761
2001 = 2241
2002 = 2555
2003 = 3468
2004 = 3006
2005 = 3505
2006 = 2583
2007 = 2852
2008 = 1620
2009 = 3632
2010 = 2254
2011 = 2299
2012 = 1472 ***Sept 27

A few more hours to go, looks like Sept will make a record month for the lowest sales since 1995.

Inventory
Guest
Inventory

Richmond Sept Detached Sales
1994 = 189
1995 = 126
1996 = 122
1997 = 121
1998 = 83
1999 = 109
2000 = 115
2001 = 135
2002 = 150
2003 = 174
2004 = 134
2005 = 160
2006 = 114
2007 = 147
2008 = 59
2009 = 192
2010 = 110
2011 = 109
2012 = 53 ***Sept 27

smith
Guest
smith
Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Does anyone have the Google address for that “Olvius” RE site?

Thanks!

an observer
Guest

@Inventory:

Anyone have access to greater vancouver monthly unit sales from before 1994? Looks like we very well could beat 2008 and that would give us the lowest September sales since at least 1994 but I imagine it could be the worst going back another decade beyond that

Bearacha
Guest
Bearacha

@Bull! Bull! Bull!: the Feds will not step in because they are far more concerned with debt deflation. They are happy to see prices go down slowly. If these latest mortgage rules didn’t have any effect, they’d have implemented other rules or rate changes in addition. Sorry, no help from the Feds this time.

Danm
Guest
Danm

Will sales still low until Apr 1 when GST is removed.
Typically, after new home is sold, the builder will purchase a tear down. The tear down owner will buy a small condo. The small condo owner will upgrade to a bigger place etc etc.

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