Happy buyers don’t have regrets
Are we having fun yet?
If you’re ‘in the game’ you know that the real estate market in Vancouver has been a frothy pond of fun for years. If you don’t count transaction and renovation costs it’s easy to get rich flipping condos.
Or if you want to get more meta just resell presales contracts.
That’s right, we have people here who will buy the right to buy a building that doesn’t exist yet!
The funny thing about easy money is that it seems so unreal. This city is filled with people who could easily cash out even at current post peak prices and have a big chunk of real money, but will the majority do that?
Nope. The majority will stay put, renovate, buy back into the same market or turn their home equity into more debt via a HELOC.
In fact the majority couldn’t all cash out even if they wanted, we simply don’t have the buyers to enable that. Even when we had bidding wars we didn’t have enough buyers for a majority to cash out and now that sales have plummeted we really don’t have enough buyers.
A few lucky sellers will cash out and make money off this bubble. Likely because life changes caused them to move on. The majority will keep on paying their mortgages or get foreclosed on. Recent buyers will be paying more to keep their homes and may start to feel a bit trapped.
You saw this here just a couple years ago when buyers were complaining that developers were selling condos in their building for less than they paid and developers were suing presales buyers for money to cover the difference between their deposit and the lower resales value.
But you know what? They’ll be fine, they payed the price they felt their home was worth to them. A market decline doesn’t hurt someone that is happy with the price they payed and can keep paying their bills.
And if rates go up or job losses occur? Well someone without a financial buffer and emergency savings to deal with such a scenario really wasn’t ready to buy a house in the first place.
September 27th, 2012 at 3:09 am 1
“They’ll be fine, they payed the price they felt their home was worth to them.”
Ah but you see, the price they felt their house was worth was based on an expectation that prices would keep going up.
That is, they were all speculators.
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September 27th, 2012 at 5:25 am 2
Just saw the posting from yesterday about the Melville and the smoking rules. I don’t think this one is done yet. Someone is going to make a challenge of this legally. Strata Councils are very powerful and can restrict your life within strata living. However, restricting someone from doing something perfectly legal within their own suite sounds like going too far.
I’m not a smoker and absolutely can not stand it. However, building design needs to take into account the need to keep the air pressure such that it pushes air into units and does not take air out.
Anyhow – - back to stats. At least we end with a Friday this month so we should not see the sales exceed 2008 as Friday’s are usually disasters.
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September 27th, 2012 at 6:01 am 3
1 patriotz Says: “That is, they were all speculators.”
What markets is ever composed of buyers expecting to lose money? Labeling those in this one speculators does’t differentiate them from any other, bubble or not.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 6:01 am 4
@YVR2ZRH: “…building design needs to take into account the need to keep the air pressure such that it pushes air into units and does not take air out.”
If only!!!!!
Good quality brand new buildings have terrible inter-suite pressure isolation. The slightest pressure difference adjacent to a smoking suite will cause particulate ingress to non-smoking suites despite any attempt to keep building ventilation pressure positive in hallways. There are unavoidable common plumbing walls, electrical distibution conduits, and so on.
When the question of smoker’s rights is framed as a right to combustion, it is much clearer that it not a right. It is even a fire hazard and arguably a total building hazard from the point of view of disabled fire detection sensors. Show me a smoker’s suite and I’ll show you a fire code violation because the smoke detector probably has a plastic bag taped over it!
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 6:12 am 5
@fixie guy: “What markets is ever composed of buyers expecting to lose money?”
Fair premise, but it is an open question as to how the money is “not lost”. If house prices are stable you could save money by owning instead of renting. In fact, if the price follows exactly ordinary inflation, rent/buy math can be worked out perfectly, can’t it?
Making money isn’t always about exploiting bubble inflation. Interest accounts, notes, bonds, etc – fixed income instruments can also make money without speculative madness.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 6:23 am 6
@fixie guy:
“What markets is ever composed of buyers expecting to lose money?”
“Losing money” is something entirely different from “selling something at a lower price than you paid for it”.
Car rental companies always do the latter, but still they make money.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 6:39 am 7
Globe and Mail columnist writes an article about her own property she is trying to sell
http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/09/27/globe-and-mail-columnist-uses-home-of-the-week-to-advertise-sale-of-her-own-house/
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September 27th, 2012 at 7:59 am 8
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September 27th, 2012 at 8:07 am 9
if you fully own your property how much maximum the bank would give you in HELOC? Is it 65%?
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September 27th, 2012 at 8:29 am 10
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September 27th, 2012 at 8:30 am 11
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September 27th, 2012 at 8:32 am 12
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September 27th, 2012 at 8:33 am 13
@Anonymous:
#11. Why? Why? Why? do you come read then?
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September 27th, 2012 at 8:51 am 14
@Bull! Bull! Bull!: I haven’t seen the Canadian remake yet, but I did see the original US movie. It was funny!
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September 27th, 2012 at 9:19 am 15
Public school enrollment is down, probably by thousands across the Lower Mainland, but definately by 500 in Vancouver. I’m not sure why the sudden concern as enrollments have been trending down for years.
Looking at Bacchus’ comments, its interesting that the first thing she wonders about is if children are leaving Canada. Are some HAM finding the new Federal Government scrutiny worrisome, and starting to go elsewhere?
http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/406123–public-school-enrolment-in-lower-mainland-down
Patti Bacchus with the Vancouver School Board says she won’t know for sure until the end of the month, but it looks like her district will have about 500 fewer students this year.
“It’s often difficult for us to know where they have gone,” says Bacchus. “Have they left the country? Have they gone to home school? Have they just dropped out? Have they gone to an independent school, or in some cases, possibly enrolled in online courses in a different district? We really don’t have an effective process in place to track that.”
Bacchus adds many secretary treasurers from Lower Mainland school districts are predicting declines in enrolment. She believes finding out why should be more of a priority.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 9:24 am 16
Patti Bacchus: “Have they left the country? Have they gone to home school? Have they just dropped out? ”
How about moving to another province? you know the one’s that still have friking jobs above minimum wage.
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September 27th, 2012 at 9:37 am 17
BC’s population growth and age structure is now just like Eastern Canada.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/120927/dq120927b-eng.htm
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September 27th, 2012 at 9:39 am 18
Immigrants and migrants all heading to the Prairies
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/spurred-by-immigration-in-the-west-canadas-population-growth-fastest-in-g8/article4571648/
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September 27th, 2012 at 9:47 am 19
“If you rent a place in Metro Vancouver and are hoping to buy a home one day, the recent forecast from well-known investment advisor Garth Turner may be music to your ears. He predicts house prices could drop by as much as 40%.”
http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/Columnists/DanielFontaine/2012/09/26/20236746.html
atta boy, get it out there!
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September 27th, 2012 at 9:52 am 20
@Patiently Waiting: I thought Bacchus was the god of wine, not whine..
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September 27th, 2012 at 9:54 am 21
@Patiently Waiting: “Are some HAM finding the new Federal Government scrutiny worrisome, and starting to go elsewhere?”
keep an eye on the childhood poverty rates for the answer to that one.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 9:59 am 22
The smoking debate is always going to be a hard one to justify. For the record, I do not smoke, yet I cannot see preventing others from smoking in their units.
If you’re going to ban smoking based on particulate counts entering neighbouring suites, you open the debate to BBQs, certain smelly foods, … etc that contribute to quality of life and health. That’s not a debate I wish to have with my neighbours.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 9:59 am 23
Patiently Waiting “Immigrants and migrants all heading to the Prairies”
BINGO
Bachuss is just trying to be clueless.
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September 27th, 2012 at 10:00 am 24
@Patiently Waiting: But I thought everyone wanted to live here!
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September 27th, 2012 at 10:02 am 25
Wage inflation accelerates.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/120927/dq120927a-eng.htm
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September 27th, 2012 at 10:11 am 26
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September 27th, 2012 at 10:16 am 27
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September 27th, 2012 at 10:24 am 28
@Bull! Bull! Bull!: Funny how bulls seem to need to blame a ‘trigger’ for house price collapses, anything other than ‘prices were unsustainably too high’.
So I’m guessing the trigger you’ll blame will be a sequel to an 80s movie? Will a prequel do? Or how about anything with Bill Murray?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 10:30 am 29
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September 27th, 2012 at 10:32 am 30
Home in Shaughnessy just had a small price drop today. From $31.9 million down to $22.8 million… $9 million drop, no big deal
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September 27th, 2012 at 10:42 am 31
Global slowdown = job losses = forced sales = motivated sellers = continued downward pricing trend.
Don’t be greedy.
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September 27th, 2012 at 10:43 am 32
@vangrl: Fontaine states
Mr. Fontaine, with the utmost respect and urgency, it is not about what we want, it’s about what’s likely going to happen.
Michael Geller made an interesting comment:
My guess is he gets what would happen just fine, but I don’t know the fellow’s views based on this statement alone. I wonder if Geller, like Fontaine, somehow thinks a crash is avoidable. I do not.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 10:49 am 33
“Then there is the real issue of people planning on using the equity in their home to help them in their retirement years. A one million dollar home on Vancouver’s eastside that suddenly plummets to $600 or $800K would have a huge impact on the future income of retirees. This would likely delay the retirement plans of thousands of Vancouverites whilst reducing the number of job openings and promotion opportunities for younger workers.”
http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/Columnists/DanielFontaine/2012/09/26/20236746.html
whatever, it would put them back to where they were a few short years ago….big deal.
I hate when they talk like Vancouver prices are normal, and should be where they are….like the rise that we had in the last 8 years was expected by all
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September 27th, 2012 at 10:59 am 34
@vangrl:
Thank you for this link! You made my day. LOL
Price drop could harm a lot of people, therefore prices should rise.
Great logic. Way to go, Daniel Fontaine!
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September 27th, 2012 at 11:11 am 35
@taylor192: But, but… King Rennie would say it’s all about transportation!! What’s so bad about living in a small box with pot-smoking neighbours who consume smelly food and host large parties when you have TRANSPORTATION?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 11:19 am 36
“He adds that no crash has taken place in Vancouver because people have pulled their houses off the market rather than accept a big discount on the price. The same could happen in Toronto.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/no-large-pop-for-the-toronto-market-observers-say/article4571876/?cmpid=rss1
who is this guy? are we not at a 52 week high with listings right now? or close?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 11:20 am 37
@taylor192: “ban smoking based on particulate counts entering neighbouring suites, you open the debate to BBQs, certain smelly foods, … etc”
Wrong wrong wrong. Cooking is not combustion. BBQ’s and propane tanks are not allowed by fire code in multi-unit dwellings either!
There is no right to combustion. Smokers have options including designated smoking rooms with appropriate carcinogen capture and sequestration equipment. Smokers can also vaporize rather than burn their tobacco/pot/etc before inhalation.
People always make this false argument comparing carcinogenic fumes to smelly cooking odors. IT’S NOT THE ODOUR, IT’S THE ASTHMA, LUNG STRESS, AND CANCER!
Why not allow multi-unit occupants to operate medical waste incinerators too? It’s their right according to the cooking odour standard you imagine captures the whole issue.
I am not opposed to individual rights. You can bloody well have a target shooting range for assault rifles in your apartment if you wish! Just make sure the amenities in your apartment are designed to fully and safely suppress the noise and kinetic energy of both intended and unintended firearm discharges.
This IS a conversation that must be confronted in every multi-unit dwelling despite the “discomfort” some feel because they don’t know the entire scope of the question.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 11:20 am 38
@Brett: Wage inflation looks pulsating at around 2.5% average, not accelerating. How many years of 2.5% wage increases does it take to double the wage which would make the price/income ratio arguably reasonable again? (hint: rule of 72)
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September 27th, 2012 at 11:21 am 39
No surprises here, the market is NOT crashing. It is just re-setting to its natural price level, real estate was never worth this in the first place. Would you pay $125,000 for a new Toyota Corolla?
That house in Shaughnessy i think they paid $6 million just a few years ago. In my opinion, it is worth no more then 7 or $8 million in this crazy market. If you put this house in the state of Arkanasas, you might get $650K.
The $1 million east van house is worth no more then $300K in the majority of other cities in Canada. While in Vancouver and area, living in a world of make believe and a massive ponzi scheme that will make Mr. Madoff look like a Saint, all that Vancouver and area will be left with is a bunch of cardboard houses pillared by 2 x 4′s, photocopy floors, big box plastic light fixtures with a house held together by glue. Not too mention concrete condo buildings with granite countertops radiating while glass windows get steamed up from broken seals, that is if they don’t fall on the street and hit someone just like concrete falling from bridges & buildings in Montreal
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September 27th, 2012 at 11:21 am 40
@vangrl: LOL @ “Mr. Knapp’s opinion is based on his experience from buying three properties over a span of more than 20 years.”
Mr. Knapp, remember this: facts don’t matter when you have formed your opinion.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 11:29 am 41
@Patiently Waiting:
I’m going to say demographic shift. There is no secret that there will be only a handful of kids left in West Side Vancouver schools as really nobody with small children age is anywhere close to affording West Side housing. Boomers age, kids age, kids graduate – then we are left with a city of empty nesters, empty houses owned by offshore and the occassional HAM with children (most of whom they try to get into private school anyway).
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September 27th, 2012 at 11:30 am 42
@Common Air Combustion Rights? — give your head a shake and stop being hysterical. A little bit of second-hand smoke, through a wall, isn’t going to kill anybody, give them cancer, etc. This is getting ridiculous. You live in a cramped condo tower, you have to put up with all sorts of things, including smelly, noisy neighbours, outdoor noise, diesel exhaust, etc. Really, I mean, come on. There are bigger issues to tackle than this.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 11:31 am 43
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September 27th, 2012 at 11:38 am 44
@vangrl: From the 24 hours article: “Therefore, a dramatic price drop would have an immediate effect of putting a major chill on the retail sector.”
Dear Mr. Geller and Mr. Fontaine,
Do you know what else puts a major chill on the retail sector? Having to spend 93.8% of your household income on ownership costs.
I suggest you give YOUR heads a shake.
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September 27th, 2012 at 11:44 am 45
@Common Air Combustion Rights?: “There is no right to combustion”
You’ve never lit a candle?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 11:51 am 46
@Rob A.:
With a kid I don’t want to be anywhere close to the downtown Vancouver.
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September 27th, 2012 at 12:04 pm 47
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September 27th, 2012 at 12:04 pm 48
#43, Rob A: Downtown is a very desireable place to live…for some people. Not me, and proably not for a lot of folks.
The mega-towers blacken the skies, blocking what little sunshine and warmth we have. Grocery prices are horrific. There’s far more rain/clouds/darkness down there compared with most anything to the south. And it’s really, really cramped. Out here in south Surrey, I can be riding my bike on a quiet country road, with big sky all around me, in 5 minutes. Hell, I can jump on my bike and be in beautiful Birch Bay in a half hour, or White Rock in 15. As for shopping, well, I’ll admit I have no infatuation with the overpriced, hoity-toity Robson Street scene. Just as much shopping out here, and far more *affordable* shopping out here, particularly if you factor in Washington State.
So, while downtown Van obviously has its appeal (to some) and is far more compelling to those that work there, it’s far from the be all and end all of desirability. Given that the crash is on, given that downtown condo prices are just as out of whack as everything else in the BPOE, and given that a good number of those oh-so-cherished condos sit empty, held by speculators who are just now seeing that the “game” is up, there’s no way it’ll somehow be immune.
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September 27th, 2012 at 12:12 pm 49
Top picks on BNN, short the banks because of the coming real estate crash.
Starts at 1:10: http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip770996
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September 27th, 2012 at 12:15 pm 50
Just the facts – -
This week has had a very strange uptick in the SFH median and average to one of the highest of the year. This, without any very expensive homes selling (Max in 5M range so far). What we are seeing now funny enough is the bottom end of the SFH not selling at all and some of the affordable suburbs having larger downturns while Van-West ticks up (if even so slightly) in volume. Also – Richmond suddenly had several sales of very expensive homes (1.5M plus) while not selling any more of the tear downs. Prices on these higher priced units had large price reductions but the buyers were still high end.
Condo avg. and median pretty low this week so definitely no market shift. This again is just mix but it is an indicator that on SFH, we may not see quite the decrease in avg like we saw last month – then again, who knows.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 12:17 pm 51
I see 2 Deerwood Pl in Port Moody lowered its asking price from $770,000 to $600,000 today (assessed at $790,000). I just wonder if that’s a typo, there’s more to the story, or someone is really desperate to sell in a hurry.
listing
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 12:21 pm 52
@Common Air Combustion Rights? – microscopic smoke particulates = bullets? Okee dokee. I think you need a little chi tea and some time. Relax.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 12:22 pm 53
@vangrl: “the real issue of people planning on using the equity in their home to help them in their retirement years. A one million dollar home on Vancouver’s eastside that suddenly plummets to $600 or $800K would have a huge impact on the future income of retirees.”
No, the real problem is putting your ‘retirement’ plans all in one basket, especially one that is overvalued. Are we supposed to be concerned about fools that put all their retirement funds into the Facebook IPO, or would that just be silly?
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September 27th, 2012 at 12:29 pm 54
Just thought I’d share a price drop I just ran across moments ago… V970118, Vancouver detached,345 E 38TH AV, list Sept. 5/12 @ $998k – now $869K! Assessed @ $992. Does that make it any more enticing? Ummm… no, not really, sorry. That said, I think may have just picked up a few decorating tips .
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September 27th, 2012 at 12:43 pm 55
@Some Guy: Maybe the seller tries to attract a bidding war? The strategy is so 2011.
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September 27th, 2012 at 12:44 pm 56
@Vote Down The Facts: “…never lit a candle?”
OK. I’ll bite. Candles are useful in the event prolonged power failure to be sure. However, candles are typically well supervised and not part of a 24×7 addiction. Candles also do not produce significant carcinogenic particulates or particularly long lived airborne particulates compared to non-fuels. Nevertheless, candles are a form of combustion and you will probably be financially responsible for fire caused by a candle that got out of control in your multi-unit dwelling.
Candles are a type of fuel. Propane is another fuel. Where owners are willing to eat insurance company denied claim for fire/explosion damage or suffocation death, detached propane appliances are allowed by some buildings for special event cooking (eg: BBQ on balcony). BBQ of any kind is not allowed by fire code. Propane tanks are also officially out because of suffocation and explosion hazard. Check it for yourself. Insurance companies can deny claims to owners who violate fire code.
Some buildings also have gas (fuel) powered appliances. These devices are well supervised and designed/installed to fire code. However insurance premiums may be higher for these sorts of installations.
Similarly, there are also safety rated room designs for smokers to enjoy smoking without toxic emissions or second hand safety concerns. These rooms can be installed in buildings or suites.
A smoker is also free to use a vaporizer to get his fix instead of combustion. Ever heard of E-cigarettes? As well, legitimate medical marijuana users are always advised by their doctor to use a vaporizer instead of burning the stuff because of the obvious problem with combustion byproducts.
I let you know, there is no legitimate argument for smokers to claim they have some sort of special human right to a certain radius of contamination when there are plenty of real and pollution free alternatives that don’t require a smoker to quit smoking. Any notion of “contamination rights” becomes weaker still in the context of health and fire safety within multi-unit dwellings in compliance with current fire code.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 12:44 pm 57
@Common Air Combustion Rights?:
I have way bigger stress and phobia from smelly ethnic food than from someone smoking in the building. Sometimes I have nightmares about neighbors cooking dogs and cats when food smell hits through the hallways and walls. Different people, different problems.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 12:56 pm 58
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September 27th, 2012 at 1:02 pm 59
@sidelines:
totally agree about the decorating tips
May be we should celebrate every price that goes below assessed, but we might be too busy soon.
@Chabar
Ethnic food cooked on balconies became a famous issue in France and revealed how multiculturalism was starting to fall apart in that country. I see a marked difference between cigarettes (toxic smoke), candles (fire hazard), perfume (can be toxic) and ethnic food (celebration of cultural heritage). I believe someone who does not enjoy a bit of variety should rent a SFH, not a condo. That being said, it is true that newly built condos tend to offer less and less privacy (who wants to hear their neighbours pee?)
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September 27th, 2012 at 1:18 pm 60
@painted turtle – I’m with you 100% about hearing neighbours pee. That’s why at my next strata meeting, I’m going to be recommending a by-law making mandatory that everyone sit down when they pee (preferably in the toilet).
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September 27th, 2012 at 1:35 pm 61
@painted turtle: The reason you’re hearing your neighbors peeing is probably not due to thin walls, but due to the bathroom exhaust fan ducting connecting. This also means without the fans running you may be smelling your neighbors as well.
Welcome to the world of quality design and construction!
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September 27th, 2012 at 1:45 pm 62
@painted turtle:
I’m sure if you Googled it, you might be surprised.
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September 27th, 2012 at 1:48 pm 63
BC population growth to Q2 2012 http://housing-analysis.blogspot.ca/2012/09/bc-population-growth-to-q2-2012.html
Short synopsis: recent quarter of growth is average based on past 10 years, not cratering, but 25% below the average of the second half of last decade. Net growth was 13407, net interprovincial continues negative at -1196.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 1:59 pm 64
@Sidelines:
Or if you really want to stand while you pee, then at least make sure you are aiming at the side of the bowl above the water line.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 2:06 pm 65
More stories from the front.
Yesterday I wrote about a colleague who finally received an offer on his duplex, which will result in a 100k loss if the sale goes through. Today I have another story regarding a different colleague who bought a SFH home in the spring in the hopes of flipping it for a quick profit.
She pulled it off the market after the financing from a prospective buyer fell through. With the market having weakened significantly since then, she now finds herself amongst the ranks of the accidental landlords. She is not happy.
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September 27th, 2012 at 2:07 pm 66
@painted turtle:
“Ethnic food cooked on balconies became a famous issue in France and revealed how multiculturalism was starting to fall apart in that country.”
France never had multiculturalism. “How uniculturalism was starting to fall apart” would be closer to the mark.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 2:08 pm 67
@Some Guy:
” I just wonder if that’s a typo, there’s more to the story, or someone is really desperate to sell in a hurry.”
I would say it’s more like someone is desperate to sell, period.
And there are always such people, which is why the “people won’t sell” thesis didn’t work in the US and won’t work here.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 2:12 pm 68
@patriotz: France never had multiculturalism. “How uniculturalism was starting to fall apart” would be closer to the mark.
with all due respect, stay away from subjects you don’t understand or have enough knowledge to make informed comments.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 2:25 pm 69
@jesse:
thanks for the timely analysis! Family class (reunion) immigration has the largest numerical gain among all immigrant classes. A lot of family reunions (especial ones from Asia) are elderly parents who will live under the same roof with their established children. This is culturally expected. This class is unlikely to drive housing demand.
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September 27th, 2012 at 2:29 pm 70
@VMD: I noticed that too but haven’t made too much out of it. Also the “Investor” class was at 647 compared to 1079 in Q2-11. 519, or 80%, of those from Q2-12 were from Mainland China.
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September 27th, 2012 at 2:33 pm 71
@VMD:
Nope, but will inevitably drive up healthcare services demand (budget). Yet another failure…
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 2:33 pm 72
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
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September 27th, 2012 at 2:35 pm 73
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
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September 27th, 2012 at 2:41 pm 74
Anonymous,
Don’t worry about me, I’ve done just fine in the stock market. And, more importantly, I’m liquid with no debt to speak of. My colleagues have missed out on many great opportunities because they pulled their money out of the market to buy RE — a very, very bad trade.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 2:42 pm 75
I’m not surprised by that price “sdjustment” on Deerwood Pl. in PoMo…I watch that neighbourhood very carefully. NOTHING is selling there at the current inflated prices (Hi 700k and ABOVE)
So, THIS is what you get, I suppose.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 3:21 pm 76
@Chabar: I think the future is that there will not really be any more family class visas with PR status. I think the thinking is that they can get a 10 year unlimited Visa but having this would not allow gov’t health but would require private insurance. Anybody know?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 3:53 pm 77
@YVR2ZRH: ” I think the thinking is that they can get a 10 year unlimited Visa but having this would not allow gov’t health but would require private insurance. Anybody know?”
Yes, pretty sure that’s the way it works. Rightfully.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 4:39 pm 78
“but would require private insurance.”
Can you get private insurance in ll provinces?
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September 27th, 2012 at 5:07 pm 79
Can supervisa holders work? babysit? If they’re here for 10 years visiting their grandkids, they need to eat.
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September 27th, 2012 at 5:08 pm 80
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
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September 27th, 2012 at 5:14 pm 81
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September 27th, 2012 at 5:35 pm 82
On declining school enrollment:
Where are the young families with children moving? SURREY is your answer! Patti Bacchus is talking about the Vancouver School Board losing 500 students. Many of these students’ families have likely moved to Surrey in search of affordable housing.
While they’re talking about closing schools in Vancouver, they can’t build new schools in Surrey fast enough:
Education Minister George Abbott -
“These new schools and additions will create much-needed space for Surrey’s growing student population. While enrolment is down in most districts, Surrey bucks the trend and these projects support the growing number of young families attracted to Surrey’s vibrant neighbourhoods.”
http://www.newsroom.gov.bc.ca/2012/05/new-schools-and-additions-for-growing-surrey-district.html
Sorry to bring up Little Mountain once again, but it is relevant to this issue. From 2007 to 2009, almost 200 families were forced out of the Little Mountain Housing Project. Many of these families have children and moved to Surrey and North Van. I know enrolment was down at the nearby General Brock Elementary School because of that.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
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September 27th, 2012 at 5:48 pm 83
On banning smoking inside suites:
ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS!!! One more reason why I would never buy a condo–a fascist strata board can make up just about any rule it wants and infringe on people’s individual property right.
There is an anit-smoking extremist ideology that has taken root in our society. Research that shows that second hand smoke does not cause cancer has been supressed:
http://www.forces.org/evidence/files/pas-smok.htm
All sorts of toxins are admitted into our air from a variety of sources. I believe cars emit far more toxic air pollution than cigarettes do. The fact is far more people drive in our society than smoke so the collective air pollution from cars is far greater than the collective air pollution from cigarettes.
I choose not to drive. I object to being forced to breath in toxic car exhaust. Therefore, I propose that all combustion engine cars be banned from British Columbia because it is patently unfair to expose non-drivers to the lethal pollutants emitted by cars.
By the way, I’m being facetious. I don’t want to actually ban combustion engine cars. I am simply using the very same logic than the anti-smoking crusaders are using. If they want smoking banned, they should want cars banned–it’s the same thing–pollutants being emitted by some and breathed in by all–although cars emit more pollutants so the push to ban cars should be even stronger than the push to ban smoking.
Also, banning smoking inside apartment units is not enforceable. Even if you smell smoke, you may not always know which unit it is coming from. Even if you suspect a particular unit, how are you going to be able to PROVE that the smoke came from that unit. Unless you physically see people smoking or see smoking coming out from under their doors, you won’t have any proof. What is the standard of proof required to get a $200 strata fine? Already, people are not allowed to smoke marijuana in strata units or risk being fined yet people still get away with it all the time because there is simply no way to prove which unit the marijuana smell is coming from.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 5:52 pm 84
Why is my comment on declining school enrollment already voted down?
You disagree that enrollment is up in Surrey? You disagree that the BC government has had to open up new schools in Surrey while considering closing schools in Vancouver? You disagree that Little Mountain families were forced out of Vancouver and that caused kids from Vancouver’s General Brock School to enrol in schools in suburbs like North Van and Surrey?
Every single thing I said in that post was absolute fact that can be proven. There is not one bit of my opinion in that post. Those are all facts, plain and simple. You can’t disagree with the empirical truth.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 5:55 pm 85
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September 27th, 2012 at 6:07 pm 86
Since the smoking thing has come up again, and since the earlier poster seemed to be implying that BBQs were not allowed, I feel I have to mention that most of my friends live in apartments and most of them own BBQs. As far as I can tell, concrete buildings always allow BBQs and woodframe buildings generally only allow them on the ground floor.
I live in a woodframe rental building and sometimes put up with cigarette smoke and sometimes BBQs from the ground floor. I agree with joe_blown that for me both of these are preferable to car exhaust.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 6:07 pm 87
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September 27th, 2012 at 6:23 pm 88
Got this crap in my e-mail this morning from Rennie marketing:
————————–
ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND
As a VIP registration we wanted you to be the first to know that Intergulf’s GRAND CENTRAL 3 will be opening the doors this weekend at noon, Saturday Sept 29th, to begin previews of this exciting offer. We’re still putting on the finishing touches, but dont miss this early opportunity to come down and talk to our sales staff about pricing, floorplans, and purchaser incentives – and check out our beautiful new designer display suite.
A COMPLETED COMMUNITY
The third and final tower in this soon-to-be completed community, GRAND CENTRAL 3 is located in the heart of Coquitlam, just steps from Coquitlam Centre, the future Evergreen Line and endless shops and restaurants. Here, you can enjoy resort-inspired amenities, premium interiors, and stunning views of the picturesque Westwood Plateau. And all just 35 minutes from downtown Vancouver. Spend less time on the move and more time by the pool.
UNBEATABLE VALUE
With 100 HOMES FOR UNDER $299,900, GRAND CENTRAL 3 offers an amazing opportunity to get into this hot Coquitlam market with 1-beds from $229,900 and 2-beds from $349,900. And, for a limited time, we are offering the opportunity to EARN 5% INTEREST on your deposit!
Join us this Saturday, September 29th noon sharp at 1150 The High Street at Northern Avenue (across from Coquitlam Centre) to preview this amazing opportunity.
See you Saturday!
Regards,
Your GRAND CENTRAL 3 Sales Team
——————————
WOW! 5% interest on my deposit? Great! And 2 bedroom junker condos starting at only 350k? Where do I sign up. This has to be a joke. Who the FUCK would pay $350,000 (for the bare minimum unit on the bottom floor), to live in this crappy area of Coquitlam?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 6:24 pm 89
@Melanie:
The reason why I am being so sensitive to my comment being voted down is because it only takes a few down votes to hide your comment. I’ve seen some very good comments hidden because of this. I think the threshold to hide comments is too low. It should be negative 10 or negative 15 before a comment is hidden.
If it is true that there are nazis/trolls just voting down comments irrespective of their content, this is quite threatening to this blog. There is increased activity of trolls here and vreaa (see latest post at vreaa about troll posting links to RE pumping website, but disguised as meaningful contributions to the discussion).
Imagine if a whole bunch of trolls decided to work together to vote down all the comments on this blog. You would only need about 5 trolls to vote down every comment as it appears here in order to render every comment hidden. Once a comment is hidden, it becomes less likely for people to vote it up to unhide it because that means clicking on the “show comment link”, which many casual readers of this blog won’t do. Given the low threshold for comments to be rendered hidden (is it negative 5 to be hidden?), this blog is inviting this sort of attack where trolls coordinate to vote down all comments so that virtually all comments end up being hidden.
So that is why I got sensitive about my comment being voted down. I wouldn’t care so much, but I was afraid my comment would be rendered hidden before many reasonable people got to read it.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 6:32 pm 90
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: grow some thicker skin. Wow.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 6:34 pm 91
New Listings 212
Price Changes 149
Sold Listings 71
TI:19497
http://www.paulboenisch.com
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
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September 27th, 2012 at 6:39 pm 92
How did this article go undiscussed on this blog?!
http://www.theprovince.com/mobile/news/vancouver/Vancouver+Mayor+Gregor+Robertson+soon+have+task+force+investigate/7296329/story.html
“Over 60 per cent of residents aged 25 to 34 see Vancouver as “a resort for the wealthy,” with “too much foreign ownership,” according to the survey.
Frustration around housing is leading many to incorrectly place the blame on foreign owners from Asia, according to Reimer.
“There is a strong tension around race,” Reimer said. “We have to get ahead of that.”
You can count me as being among the 60% of 25-34yos who think Vancouver has too much foreign ownership.
I think it is pretty rude how Reimer just totally dismisses the opinion of 60% of this key demographic. Where does she get off to say these people are INCORRECT to lay blame with foreign ownership?! Vision Vancouver et al keep saying “SHOW ME THE PROOF” when it comes to foreign ownership. They say there is no data on foreign ownership in Vancouver real estate so we don’t know to what extent foreigners have driven up prices. Okay, so how did we-don’t-know-we-have-no-data go to being we-do-know-that-foreigners-have-not-driven-up prices?! If we don’t have the data that means we don’t know!!! We can’t say either way that it is CORRECT or INCORRECT that foreigners have driven up prices.
The fact that Reimer is so quick to say it is INCORRECT to blame foreign ownership just proves the we-don’t-have-the-data line is just a convenient excuse to avoid dealing with this issue. They don’t care to get the data because they don’t want to know the extent to which foreigners have driven up prices. It creates cognitive dissonance for politically correct lefties who want to do something about housing affordability but also want to play into the identity politics rhetoric that posits immigrants/racial minorities are underprivileged and can never be found to be in positions of privilege and economic power.
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September 27th, 2012 at 6:51 pm 93
@BLISTINGAGENT: BBQ’s and “Harmless” Smoke
“Allowed” doesn’t mean it’s legal or even wise if you want fire insurance to pay out. Like water escape, read you insurance documents carefully… FIRE CODE: Propane is completely out. READ:
http://vancouver.ca/your-government/fire-bylaw.aspx
Ya, right. “They’re suppressing the truth!” Asbestos must be good for you too! Smoking in multi-unit dwellings is a health hazard. READ:
http://www.bcmj.org/premise/toward-smoke-free-multi-unit-dwellings
Nevertheless, I have sympathy for smokers and there are alternatives to polluting the breathable air of your neighbors every waking hour you are on the premises.
(1) Have a smoking room installed.
http://www.ehow.com/how_6178526_convert-room-smoking-room.html
(2) Vaporize your tobacco/pot/etc instead of burning it:
http://electroniccigarettecanada.com/
http://www.vapeworld.com/tobacco-vaporizer-is-better
http://blog.cannajobs.com/vape-pen
(3) Get addiction help – Free smoking cessation supplies are now covered by the BC Government:
http://www.health.gov.bc.ca/pharmacare/stop-smoking/patient-start.html
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 6:58 pm 94
@ joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs
You said it soooooo well.
In my opinion, they’re all sucking the same teat in this town because most of them have gained by it. Then they have the gall to stick their hand in your wallet and take more for “social housing”. How about dealing with the problem
at it’s source?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 7:00 pm 95
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
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September 27th, 2012 at 7:09 pm 96
Sad month for Vancouver real estate… very sad.
Good bye bubble. Don’t let the door hit your ass on the way out.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
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September 27th, 2012 at 7:10 pm 97
@VHB: If we have less than 101 sales tomorrow, we’ll beat the 2008 record. Since sles are crappy on fridays usually, that makes is very likely. Will that make headline news? We’ll see…
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
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September 27th, 2012 at 7:16 pm 98
Check out this realtor/district councillor misconduct. Shocking there is no conflict policy at the district between his role approving developer activities and his day job. This should be fixed.
http://www.straight.com/article-788526/vancouver/north-vancouver-councillor-disciplined-second-time
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September 27th, 2012 at 7:41 pm 99
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs:
The problem is when people think about foreign ownership they think about visible minorities. However in my building in Coal Harbour, half the ‘foreign units’ in the building are owned by visible minorities, mostly from China, but the other half is owned by Americans, Israelis, South Africans, Brits and the like.
So as long we are honest about critiquing foreign ownership whatever the source and not using it to push our own bigoted ideas, then we can have an honest discussion.
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September 27th, 2012 at 7:42 pm 100
@Makaya: Higher than that, as I mentioned yesterday paulb.’s count is higher by about 50 compared to the REBGV reported. Hitting 2008 levels or higher is “unlikely”.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 7:45 pm 101
Here is what Google is giving me
Rent reduced because neighbours pee too loudly
A court has reduced the rent of a couple who live in a flat with such thin walls they could hear their neighbour peeing (-10%).
Good to know…
Read more: http://www.metro.co.uk/weird/737964-rent-reduced-because-neighbours-pee-too-loudly#ixzz27jEsnWcu
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 7:55 pm 102
Still talking about foreign ownership? The bigger problem is the government dumping half a trillion dollars into RE since 2008 through insurance and mortgage purchases. and don’t forget the loose lending practices now being reined in by OSFI. Where was the oversight before? Why the crackdown now?
I have yet to see a serious national debate on the role the CMHC and the banks play in inflating the RE. There is no serious discussion on allowing banks to use government insured mortgages to sell covered bonds to Wall Street without legislation. No question raised regarding the CMHC board of directors. But god forbid a “foreigner” buys a house, the uproar is deafening.
It astonishes me that Canadians have so much faith in their “benevolent” government.
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September 27th, 2012 at 7:55 pm 103
@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: Declining enrollment in Vancouver schools puts big pressure on the School Board budget because they have fixed facilities costs spread over fewer students. Further the VSB has additional constraints including older vintage schools and higher average teacher age, meaning salary grades are higher. The pressure to close schools a couple of years ago was immense but the VSB resisted, mostly because there was a favourable political environment to call the province’s bluff. But with every year of declining enrollment will put that much more pressure on the system.
It looks like the demographic nadir is happening about now in kindergarten, and enrollment is slated to start slowly increasing, but the longer prices stay high that will be an uphill battle.
I think it’s a big deal, but cities like San Francisco have seen similar trends, with families leaving the core for the suburbs because the lifestyle is better for their families.
I don’t know what would be required to bring families back to Vancouver — and even if the City really wants families at all despite former city planners claiming they do — but at first glance it looks to be eroding value compared to elsewhere.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 8:11 pm 104
Anonymouslynotbuying: “I have yet to see a serious national debate on the role the CMHC and the banks play in inflating the RE. There is no serious discussion on allowing banks to use government insured mortgages to sell covered bonds to Wall Street without legislation.”
Man you are so right. But we should do? Media is corrupt? Our politicians are corrupt? Financial oligarchy use both for their interest. The only solution is to take to the streets. But I don’t put lot of hope in that unless it is hockey game in question
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 8:32 pm 105
Truly incredible how bad September sales have been. Despite a stock market rally that began in August and pretty good hiring activity in local economy … there just is no appetite for more housing. My take is that pretty much every Vancouver adult who just goes with the flow is already in…and those who have any cashflow left after covering their mortgage already have second homes and timeshares just to sop up the extra cash. The only outlet for new home construction was goofy HELOC-drawing “investors” and twenty-something nubes…who have been effectively cut off by F’s CMHC rule changes.
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September 27th, 2012 at 8:49 pm 106
I know vreaa already did a post on the science world soap bubble, but the choice of words in this article are too striking to pass up:
Fitting 181 people in a soap bubble
“Canadian bubble [...] set a new Guinness World Record”
“…thrilled participants in the bubble”
Yang warned them: “You’re gonna have an urge [...] Resist that urge”
Next is a series of pictures. First one looks like a cute realtor blowing more air into the bubble. Smoke nearby in the background – is that Kelowna/Okanagan/Victoria? or the US? Everyone is too distracted to notice.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 27th, 2012 at 11:39 pm 107
To those that voted down my list of reference links to Vancouver Fire Code legislation, buildings standards, peer reviewed BCMA article on multi-unit smoking, and smoker alternative facts without posting any argument whatsoever I suppose there is only this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djVjexRp-oQ
Indeed, it sure would be nice to be able to argue without any facts followed up with a dramatic effect. Seinfeld really nails this one.
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 28th, 2012 at 12:00 am 108
@Common Air Combustion Rights?:
What do you say to all of the stratas that explicitly permit propane barbeques on balconies in their bylaws? Are all those strata managers in violation of fire code?
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September 28th, 2012 at 12:19 am 109
@Vote Down The Facts: “…stratas that explicitly permit propane…”
Strata statutes cannot contravene prevailing law. Like any other part of the law, you can’t enter into a contract to do something illegal. Any contract of that pattern is not enforcable.
If somebody dies from an explosion or tank leak suffocation, insurance will be of no help. The insurance company may as well be on the Moon in that case. The party most directly responsible for another person’s death will be directly held financially and criminally liable. If landlords are knowingly lax about who they allow to operate propane powered devices in the City limits, they will have SERIOUS financial and criminal liability as well.
The same goes for landlords that look the other way on taped over smoke detectors in the suites of known smokers. Yes, there are annual fire inspections. But, the facts of knowledge will come out after the event. If a landlord has ever received a complaint with any question like “…with all that smoke 24 hours a day, why isn’t the smoke detector triggered…”. There will be SERIOUS financial and criminal liability for the landlord.
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September 28th, 2012 at 12:50 am 110
@Common Air Combustion Rights?:
http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/housing/HousingPolicies/4-2-9_Housing_BBQ_Policy.pdf
Hot debate. What do you think?
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September 28th, 2012 at 1:04 am 111
@Vote Down The Facts: re: Metro Vancouver Strata Exhibit
Very interesting. Thank you for posting this. As a precaution, if were the acting fiduciary of MVHC, I would get a signed letterhead letter from somebody in authority at the City, like a Fire Safety Inspector with their affirmative opinion on the Fire Code worthiness of the strata statute.
Perhaps MVHC has already done so and thus you can see the detailed technical qualifications for using the devices in the strata bylaw:
…1 foot from the building…
…unenclosed balcony…
…not to be used/stored indoors…
Thanks again for adding something to the conversation.
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September 28th, 2012 at 10:51 am 112
@ScubaSteve: coquitlam center 35 minutes from downtown Vancouver? Lol only if its the middle of the nightand you drive like a maniac.
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