Less than a hundred reasons RE is collapsing

There are 3 sales day left in September 2012.

That’s 3 more chances to have a day when we see sales over 100.

Do you know how many days we’ve seen sales go over 100 so far this month?

ONE.

There has only been one day this month where sales went over 100.

Here’s the last couple of Septembers for historical comparison:

2010: 11 days with triple digit sales

2011: 14 days with triple digit sales

2012: 1 day of triple digit sales (max possible 4)

Thanks to VHB for the stats and PaulB for the numbers.

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asalvari1
Guest
asalvari1

@VMD:

HUH!?
he is true convert:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVpWJujMYdI&feature=player_embedded

Ian,now we welcome you here..

patriotz
Member

Should young Canadians with home ownership dreams keep dreaming?

If you’re a young Canadian saving up for your first home, chances are you’re in for a long wait.

By 2020, the average cost of a home will be $553,000, according to projections from a Canadian mortgage-comparison company. To accumulate a 5-per-cent down payment for such a home, recent graduates should expect to spend 12 years saving up, according to RateSupermarket.ca. And if they’d prefer to put 10 per cent down on a home, they should be prepared to save for 21 years.

The author of the article has not figured out that if nobody is going to be able to buy at these prices nobody will be able to sell.

But the commenters have.

patriotz
Member

I have created a Teranet Decline by Month thread in the Housing Data forum. I will add the index to the top post every month. You may post your comments below.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@patriotz:

By 2020, the average cost of a home will be $553,000, according to projections from a Canadian mortgage-comparison company.

Sounds about right to me…for a Vancouver SFH.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

who would ever buy in a building that had an insurance policy with a water damage deductible of $100,000-$150,0000 ? I can imagine that most owners aren’t even aware of their buildings policy unless they are on strata….that would be a rude awakening.

Every building I’ve ever owned a place in had a deductible of between $5000-$10,000, an amount easily covered by my personal insurance policy. They were all low-rise buildings…but still

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/09/25/bc-condominium-leaks-deductibles.html

900kCrackHouse
Guest
900kCrackHouse

@asalvari1: Does Ian Watt read this blog?

Mortgageslave
Guest
Mortgageslave

@vangirl

The Condo that I used to own in NewWest had 100k deductible on Water damage. It was four years old, we had a few claims to get it up there. Plus the building was getting alot of pinhole leaks in the copper plumming joints. Three happened above my unit in 3 weeks before it sold. I was sub-penthouse too! Buyer bought with no subjects to boot. Not sure what the Stata ended up doing, what can you do? pay for repairs out of pocket each time or redo the whole plumbing. I assume number 2 ended up being done with every owner coming up with tens of thousands to cover it. Four year old building, really makes you want to buy a new condo eh!

vangrl
Member
vangrl

i think i exaggerated the deductible amounts, the article is quoting buildings having deductibles between $50,000-$100,0000… but still

vangrl
Member
vangrl

@ mortgageslave

that’s insane

my building just redid the pipes about 8 years ago because we started getting pinhole leaks that were nickle and dimeing us, but our pipes were 35 years old at that point…i’d say we at least got our moneys worth

M-
Member

@vangrl: My old condo in Kits (wood-frame, built mid-90s) had a $50K deductible for water damage claims. A few people in the building had accidentally smashed fire sprinkler bulbs, each time resulting in serious damage. The valve in the showers (“lifetime warranty”) was prone to leaking after about 5 years, resulting in water damage as well. Lots and lots of claims resulted in a high deductible. Ah, life in a condo!

Juliette Johnson
Guest
Juliette Johnson

@Mortgageslave: Wow, sounds like you got really lucky to sell a condo like that with no subjects.

chilled
Member
chilled

@Mortgageslave:

The ‘Q’ on Renaissance Square by chance??

Manna from heavan
Guest
Manna from heavan
Real estate doesn’t always go up, stories from the front. One of my colleagues has finally received an offer on his duplex. Sale is subject to financing and inspection. He bought the duplex in early 2010 for approx. $950k and says he is going to take a $100k loss on the sale, this doesn’t include closing costs. He was keen to get rid of it as he was carrying a million on his line of credit to finance the purchase of the house they are now living in. He should be happy as the first mover in a declining market wins. The bar has been set that much lower for comps in the area. Who wants to take a stab at the total costs for the privilege of owning for the past 30 months (I believe he carried a fairly… Read more »
VMD
Member
UBC housing plan to increase affordability and choice for faculty, staff and students Media Release | Sep. 26, 2012 A total of up to 30 per cent of UBC’s future housing stock will be available only to faculty and staff Up to 20 per cent of future units will be restricted rentals, available to faculty and staff at rental rates approximately 25 per cent below the average rental rates on Vancouver’s west side Up to 10 per cent of future units will be built as restricted home ownership for tenure and tenure-track faculty, with an anticipated purchase price 33 per cent below benchmark housing prices, and resale prices indexed to faculty salaries to a maximum 33 per cent below benchmark housing prices A pilot project with up to 100 units of non-profit housing program will be available to eligible full-time… Read more »
Mortgageslave
Guest
Mortgageslave

@chilled,

Nope, guess there’s a few! not sure I should spread “the news”….;)

YLTNboomerang
Member

@vangrl: Ooohh, I know this all to well! Park West I by Concord Pacific is the super soaker of all condos! The shower valves, washing machine stack, and sump pumps in the basement were all repeat offenders. When I left the place at the end of 2007 the deductible was already up to $75,000.

The funniest part is the fact that a disgruntled employee cut a dishwasher line halfway up the building weeks before it was to turn over to owners resulting in a 3 month delay for restoration as the leak went 13 hours without discovery!!! Wow, it was a super soaker!

jesse
Member

@Manna from heavan: “Who wants to take a stab at the total costs for the privilege of owning for the past 30 months”

– Depreciation: say 1.5% of structure per year. If it’s new that would be about $4.5K, if it’s old say $2.5K
– Maintenance costs and appliance depreciation: I’d put at $3K/year if new, $6K/year if old
– Tax: $2K/year
– Insurance: $500/year (?)

So not including financing, the expenses are $10K/year. I think there’s some risk adjustment included in that (i.e. accrual for unexpected repairs and maintenance that may not have occurred).
Ultimately I would look at 20% of rent as carrying costs for a guy off the street. If the guy were a skilled tradesman and property manager this might be a bit lower because he gets better deals on materials and can do the work to a high quality himself.

jesse
Member

(That’s the additional expenses above what it would cost to rent; renters have utility/valuables insurance/furnishing expenses as well so expenses incurred by a renter/owner alike shouldn’t be included in the “privilege” calculations.)

patriotz
Member

@VMD:
Both the below-market rentals and below-market “sales” are taxable benefits that must be added to the employee’s income.

That’s pretty straightforward for the rentals, but for the “sales” that’s going to take some work on the part of the accountants.

I say “sales” because if you’re not allowed to sell a property for market price you’re really leasing it, not owning it.

jesse
Member

MayorGregor’s affordability task force is here.

No idea what this will mean but it’s not clear to me that increasing density will make things more affordable.

Aleksey
Guest
Aleksey

Troll index is 0 today.
Seems like 100+ sales day.
Sad…

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@Aleksey: or maybe this is a sign of troll capitulation…

Dog
Guest
Dog

Very few listings today. Prices are holding up high on condos. I don’t expect any declines going forward and quite possibly a dramatic upswing in prices as money pulls out of stock markets.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@jesse: ….No idea what this will mean but it’s not clear to me that increasing density will make things more affordable……

Density is nothing more than a ploy to keep developers busy while providing underpinnings for sustaining the high price of other lower density properties.

Rental Rate of Change?
Guest
Rental Rate of Change?

@jesse: re: MayorGregor’s affordability task force is here.

Per line item:
13. Evaluate the City’s rental protection regulations (Rate of Change).

At first glance I thought this had something to do with plugging the holes in the BC Residential Tenancy Act. It actually has more to do with the availability of zoning/demolition permits.

http://vancouver.ca/files/cov/rate-of-change.pdf

One idea. I wonder, is it within municipal jurisdiction to curtail strata powers on percentage of rental units?

For example, one could force any building with more than 0% rentals to allow up to 100% rentals notwithstanding any strata statute. The rationale could be if there is one rental unit, then they are all potential rental units.

If it is legally feasible, this could be a good one for their suggestion box.

Thoughts?

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