Market moves for August 2012

Another month has come and gone.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) should release their market update for August any day now, buy in the interim we have the always entertaining GVREB and their news release.

The GVREB uses factual statistics, numbers and market data in their press releases just like the REBGV, but I think you’ll find the spin is a little different

Motivated Sellers Move Prices Downward in Extended Weak Market.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE ON VCI

VANCOUVER, B.C. –September 4, 2012 – The extended weakness of the Greater Vancouver Property market has forced many motivated sellers to reduce prices significantly from their spring listing prices in order to sell their property. Sales volumes continued to languish at near record lows and daily sales volumes continue to decrease. Counteracting the low sales is the impact that market weakness has discouraged new sellers from listing their properties. This reduction in the pace of new listings has resulted in an overall decrease in the number of active listings compared to the number at the end of June 2012. Daily sales volumes continued to deteriorate first to 82 units per day in the first half of the month then to 71 units per day in the last half of the month. The lack of buyers has resulted in sellers taking significant discounts in order to complete their sale transaction and the majority of sales are now at prices below their July 2011 property tax assessed values.

GVREB reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 1,649 in August 2012. This total represents a 31 per cent decrease compared to the 2,378 sales in August 2011. August 2012 had the lowest average sales per market day for any August in the past 12 years at 76 sales per day compared to 78 sales per day in 2008, which was the most recent low.

August 2012 saw an increase in the sale of ultra-luxury properties as the summer travel season brought more foreign buyers than the previous few months. There were 3 sales in Greater Vancouver over $10 million during August 2012 and a large increase in properties over $5 million compared to the most recent months. The fact that these sales occurred in a month with very slow sales had a disproportionate effect of increasing the average price for the month with over $50,000 of the increase in the average selling price of detached properties coming from the 3 largest sales. The large increase in the average selling price compared to July 2012 should not be interpreted as a sign that the market is strengthening. Experienced local real estate professionals have noted that it is more important to focus on the high inventory levels and low sales volumes and the resulting inflated Months of Inventory (MOI) ratios than the average price which can be disproportionately affected by a small number of sales of very high value properties.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 3,988 in August 2012. This is slightly below the average listing rate for the past 12 years however the sales to new listing ratio of 41.8% was the second lowest of the past 12 years. Continued market weakness has resulted in a slowdown in new listings. However, experienced market players have noted that “sellers waiting for better selling conditions are not expected to see the current price levels for the foreseeable future and waiting to list their property should not be a strategy to obtain a higher selling price. Sellers must reduce their price expectations if they wish to complete their sale before the end of 2012.”

Active listings at the end of August 2012 were 17,652, down 3 per cent from July 2012. However, total MOI continued to increase for the sixth straight month and was 10.5 at the end of the month. MOI for detached increased to 12.5 months at August 2012 from 10.1 months at the end of July 2012. Attached and apartment inventory increased significantly to 9.3 months from 7.7 months. At these levels, there are significant downward pressures on selling prices and very few buyers are available for the number of active listings. MOI increased in nearly every sub-market during August 2012 from July 2012 with West Vancouver detached increasing from 12 to 21 months and Burnaby increasing to 15 from 11 months. Without a significant withdrawal of listings by current sellers in Greater Vancouver, these ratios are forecasted to deteriorate further during September.

The Residential Reference Price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased only marginally to $614,000 in August 2012 from $612,600 in August 2011. We believe that in September, the annual price comparison will show the first annual decreases in this index since 2009.

Sales of detached properties in August slowed to 625 units, a decrease of 39 per cent from the 1,020 detached sales recorded in August 2011, and a 30 per cent decrease from the 893 units sold in August 2010. August 2012 was the second lowest sales volume of detached in the past 12 years. The reference price for detached properties increased 1.4 per cent from August 2011 to $945,000 but fell from $949,000 in the previous month.

Sales of apartment properties fell to the lowest level in 12 years at 727 units in August 2012, a 24 per cent decrease compared to the 955 sales in August 2011, and a decrease of 22 per cent compared to the 955 sales in August 2010. The reference price of an apartment property was equal to the level at the end of August 2011 at $372,000.

Attached property sales in August 2012 totalled 298, a 26 per cent decrease compared to the 403 sales in August 2011, and a 20 per cent decrease from the 374 attached properties sold in August 2010. The reference price of an attached unit decreased 0.5 per cent from August 2011 to $464,000.

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Don Lapre
Member
Don Lapre

First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!First!!!

G
Guest
G

This made my day!

Can Abyss
Guest
Can Abyss

Very funny, bu tth e offficial press realeases don’t say things like “should not be interpreted as a sign that the market is strengthening” or “there are significant downward pressures on selling prices”. They just report the facts instead of making predictions or jeudgement calls.

Devore
Member
Devore

@Can Abyss: Yes, we should just use impartial and precise terms like “buyers market” instead.

Can Abyss
Guest
Can Abyss

I also don’t believe that Sales of apartment properties fell to the lowest level in 12 years. Where do you get your numbers, there’s plenty of stuff selling and now that summer vacation is over expect that to go up.

Can Abyss
Guest
Can Abyss

Why am I beeing voted down, you don’t like your lies revealed?

HFHC
Guest
HFHC

New Listings 216
Back On Market Listings 28
Price Changes 103
Sold Listings 42

AS OF 1:14PM

ALL LOWER MAINLAND

VanRant
Guest
VanRant

@HFHC: Just under 20% S/L. Nice!

HFHC
Guest
HFHC

House in walnut groove asking 540,000. sold for 5,125,000 . Obviously a typo. I wonder if they go back and correct that?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@VanRant: Doesn’t mean a thing. It’s pretty standard for listings to lead the way when RE activity ramps up after the summer lows.

Guy Smiley
Member
Guy Smiley

Perfect timing for a skewed average – it may be interpreted by many as a dead-cat bounce which they will pray lasts for 2 months (enough time for them to cash out). Here comes the flood! 19000+ by September 15th, 20k+ by early October.

At Walnut Grove from yesterday: you are so obviously carrying the 百年国耻 on your shoulders! Free yourself… get over it.

Van
Guest
Van

Cute joke!!!

Van
Guest
Van

Prices up 20% by end of 2012.

asalvari1
Guest
asalvari1

@Van:

I dont get it. When I did google translate, it gets translated as : “Century national humiliation”

ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve

If sales are low today then it is game over for September.

asalvari1
Guest
asalvari1

@HFHC:

The low sales and high lists: The sales are lagging approx 2 weeks IMHO. So, these numbers are not what was happening on the market last weekend, but 2 weekends ago.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Anonymous: You guys are so trigger happy with that down arrow. I did not say there will be a big increase in sales; simply that a seasonal upswing typically starts with more listings, followed (maybe) with more sales. Celebrations of a low sales/listings ratio may prove premature.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Anonymous: Whatever. At least nobody is calling me a bull or a troll yet. It does not speak well of this forum that you vote down innocuous and factual observations.

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

September with the month the crash happens! This time for sure guys! Don’t worry, it’s coming! Very soon!

VanRant
Guest
VanRant

Wow, 11 foreclosures out of 19 comments so far. Tolls must be panicking!

VMD
Member

Today’s “Troll Index” is off the scale (58% of comments foreclosed).
Pointing to a frigid sales day to commence September, when we will very likely gain a couple more months of M.O.I. by month’s end.

UnagiDon
Guest
UnagiDon

The VCI bull-boredom indicator is very high today: out of the first 19 posts, only 8 survived foreclosure. The percentage of surviving posts is only 42%.

In other news, HFHC’s current sell-list ratio is 42/216 = 19%.

Coincidence?

UnagiDon
Guest
UnagiDon

@VMD: Hahaha, three of us made the same observation simultaneously. Schadenfreude loves company, I guess.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@UnagiDon: Yeah, a big effing bellylaugh, UnagiDon. Some schadenfreude I guess, but mostly groupthink and lack of original thought I would say. Dare I say that this coincidental joke, made by three people at the same time, was completely predictable. It was just a matter of time before one or more you had the brilliant comedic insight.

Pathetic.

Vulture Fun
Guest
Vulture Fun

It’s been a while since this has come up (I think) but how about installing an option that let’s you view the comments without the foreclosures. I’m getting carpal tunnel from voting down all the retarded semi-employed agents and/or paid industry optimists that we have recently attracted.

wpDiscuz