Renovation Time!
Sales have dropped off a steep cliff in Vancouver.
Last July came in more than 30 percent below the 10 year average.
But one thing is picking up: Renovations.
Instead of upgrading to a better home more people seem to be staying put and trying to make their home better.
The amount spent on renovations has gone up every year for the past several years, Simpson said, but added that he isn’t sure if that’s because more people are renovating or because they’ve become more expensive.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp’s third-quarter Housing Market Outlook, released in August, said renovation spending in 2011 was $61.7 billion in Canada. CMHC says that amount will moderate in 2012, growing to $63.3 billion, but is expected to strengthen in 2013 to $65.6 billion.
In B.C., spending on renovations in 2011 was $7.6 billion. Spending is expected to remain stable in 2012 and grow to $7.8 billion next year.
For the most part, business is good for contractors, even in this year’s moderate market, Simpson said.
“One contractor I talked to said he’s having his best year ever,” Simpson said. “He said one client bought a home and they’re spending money to update it, but most clients want to stay where they are and bring their homes up to date.”
I guess the advantage of living in a construction zone is that you can do it a little bit at a time when you can afford it, like buying a little bit of a house at a time instead of all at once. Sounds like some people are also finding it harder to get financing for their dream homes:
Another contractor told Simpson he’s had some customers having a harder time borrowing money from the bank, which may be a result of new mortgage refinancing rules. “Some people seem to be getting a little pushback from the banks, or they might not be able to borrow as much as they want,” Simpson said. “If they can’t obtain the financing, they just have to scale it back a bit. With a renovation, you don’t have to do it all at the same time.”
Read the full article over at the Vancouver Sun.
September 11th, 2012 at 12:44 am 1
This is great news for the ultimate owner of these properties after foreclosure. Keep adding to your debt morons! You’re like a cow that walks so far off pasture, it doesn’t even need transportation to the slaughterhouse input chute!
It is remarkable how suitable the advice given by experienced cattle handlers is for the present Canadian real estate market situation. The following is verbatim from the web page http://www.wikihow.com/Herd-Cattle
–quote–
Always remain calm and quiet when handling cattle. Do not get angry, frustrated, excited, or nervous, otherwise the cattle will sense your state and reflect it in their behaviour, causing them to become excited and anxious also. Do not yell or use excessive force (like beating them with the sorting stick, giving them a few too many shots with the cattle prod, etc.) to get them going. Not only is that animal abuse but it won’t result in them obeying your wishes; it will increase their fear and desire to get away.
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September 11th, 2012 at 1:29 am 2
Hope someone can answer me on this renovation topic.
I am interested in this 2bed/2bath concrete condo. And I plan to make the living room bigger by removing one of bedroom wall (So becomes 1bed/2bath). I assume this require strata approval because of structural safety? Can I make an offer on this property with condition that the strata approves this renovation?
And who and what’s the cost to do such structure study? Any other things to watch out?
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September 11th, 2012 at 3:48 am 3
Here’s a message from me to the current owners of the foreclosed house I will eventually be buying:
Please put in gas appliances! I hate electric stoves. Also would like a few fireplaces, a hot tub in the back yard and maybe a new fence surrounding the property. If you have money to spare (before going bankrupt), please be sure to include new windows, light fixtures and maybe even a new deck (wood please).
Thank you.
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September 11th, 2012 at 6:03 am 4
“Can I make an offer on this property with condition that the strata approves this renovation?”
Sure. The owner and/or strata can also tell you to take a hike.
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September 11th, 2012 at 7:28 am 5
There is nothing bad about the renovation. If you have a broken roof, you have to get a new one. What I see as a principal problem is people (or sheeple) who seek renovation through refinancing their own home (check How credit unions escape new mortgage rules) and use their money for other thing or waste them in a rebuilding adventure which will not bring a higher value to their home (especially now).
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September 11th, 2012 at 7:30 am 6
Victor Adair is a Senior Vice President and Derivatives Portfolio Manager at Union Securities and often heard on CKNW. He recently did a commentary on how he supports the theses there will be deflation in the coming years. How is he betting on this outcome with his own money? Some derivative or short trade? Nope…he is doing what many around here are doing.
From the article:
“My deflation bet: I rent a lovely condo on Vancouver’s waterfront…I have no interest whatsoever in buying real estate here. My long term savings are mostly in cash…”
http://moneytalks.net/topics/bonds/7521-the-authorities-hit-the-acceleratorsome-big-picture-thoughts.html
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September 11th, 2012 at 7:32 am 7
People think doing a renovation is like putting money in an RRSP. You can just take it out later and you will get is all back plus some. As we have seen in the US that changes quickly when housing prices start to drop.
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September 11th, 2012 at 7:33 am 8
@G:
Why would you pay for a 2 bedroom, then decrease its value by turning it into a 1 bedroom?
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September 11th, 2012 at 8:05 am 9
@Vote Down The Facts: “Why would you pay for a 2 bedroom, then decrease its value by turning it into a 1 bedroom?”
Better question. Why buy in the first place.
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September 11th, 2012 at 8:07 am 10
@JB: “There is nothing bad about the renovation. If you have a broken roof, you have to get a new one.”
So there is an increase in the amount of roof replacements required? That is why reno $ are going up?
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September 11th, 2012 at 8:08 am 11
@Vote Down The Facts:
If G is buying now, resale value is obviously not something he or she cares about anyway.
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September 11th, 2012 at 8:08 am 12
Renos are always 100% expenditure ONLY, it depreciates in value over time. When your property value is dropping like a stone like now, why does anyone want to throw good money after bad money?
Renos does not increase the land value of the property. Under the best case scenario, it adds to the building value ONLY IF THE NEXT BUYER LIKES IT!!!!! If that moron does not exist in the next 3-4 yrs, the so-call value added via the renos DEPRECIATES during these 3-4 yrs!
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September 11th, 2012 at 8:10 am 13
@Vote Down The Facts: Because he wants to live in it?
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September 11th, 2012 at 8:19 am 14
Those yearly reno increases aren’t much above the rate of inflation, don’t think there’s much of a story here.
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September 11th, 2012 at 8:32 am 15
[Hiring expectations take steep drop in Vancouver]
- employment reports in next few months will be interesting to watch..
September 11, 2012 8:00 AM
Hiring expectations are down sharply in Vancouver, ten percentage points from this time last year.
Just 14 per cent of employers expect to do new hiring in the last quarter of 2012 – from October to December – and eight per cent actually intend to cut their workforce, according the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. Most employers surveyed, 76 per cent, plan to maintain their current employment levels and two per cent are unsure.
That leaves the “net employment outlook” at six per cent. In Canada the net employment outlook was 10 per cent, down 3 percentage points from last year.
The fourth quarter of 2011 the net employment outlook was 16 per cent in Vancouver.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Hiring+expectations+take+steep+drop+Vancouver/7223638/story.html
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September 11th, 2012 at 9:02 am 16
Household debt: economic threat or ‘godsend’?
For the motion: Ben Rabidoux, analyst and strategist at M Hanson Advisors
Yay!
Against the motion: Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management
BUT it will greatly magnify the negative effects of any one of the external risks he noted, at least one of which is almost certain to happen.
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September 11th, 2012 at 9:47 am 17
I wouldn’t count on the renovation binge continuing much longer as prices fall and people’s home equity vanishes into thin air.
What are they going to finance it with?
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September 11th, 2012 at 10:11 am 18
Home renovations are also just one of those things men do when they first retire. Something to keep themselves busy and make themselves feel useful.
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September 11th, 2012 at 10:25 am 19
The renovation craze started with the housing bubble (about ten years ago) and will end with it. Growing up in middle-class Vancouver in the 70s and 80s, I don’t recall anyone’s houses being renovated (especially not for aesthetic reasons).
But there will still be lots of jobs repairing the crappy housing we’ve built lately, along with all the condos that will require more maintenance with the new strata regulations.
Also, we will probably see a new industry combining tiny condos into reasonable living spaces (once the market bottoms).
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September 11th, 2012 at 10:38 am 20
@Patiently Waiting:
#19,
based on what you said, i assume you do not go to personal care service either, i.e haircut, gym, new clothing. you just let your hair and nails grow long and dirty, clothing is out of date.
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September 11th, 2012 at 10:40 am 21
Home renovation expenditures in Canada are nearly a full GDP percentage point above long-term norms. I would expect they are even higher in BC. Previous commenters are absolutely right: This “boom” dies when home equity shrinks and/or HELOC and refi rules tighten and/or the perceived investment return on these renovations realigns with reality and renovations are once again done primarily for utility and general enjoyment.
http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/sites/default/files/article_inside/2011/08/home_renovations_as_a_percentage_of_gdp.jpg
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September 11th, 2012 at 11:09 am 22
Court Determines Realtor Has To Pay Income Tax Rates On RE Flip Profits – “The CRA discovered that Giusti had bought and sold seven condos in seven years.”
Posted on 11 September 2012 | 14 Comments
“When you sell a property that isn’t your principal residence and make a profit, half of the amount is taxable. This is the so-called capital gains tax and it’s pretty straight forward, but every situation is different. It all depends on how the Canada Revenue Agency views the transaction.
Real estate agent Romano Giusti bought a condo on Richards St. in Vancouver in November 2006 and re-sold it in June 2007 for a profit of $30,831. When he filed his tax return, he paid no tax on the profit, saying it was his personal residence.
The CRA re-assessed this return and discovered that Giusti had bought and sold seven condos in seven years. He argued that he intended to make the Richards St. condo his personal residence, but changed his mind because of the street noise, irresponsible renters and pets in the building. So, he moved.
Giusti appealed and lost. In a case heard on January 25, 2011, Judge G.A. Sheridan found that Giusti was flipping houses and so was not entitled to the principal residence exception. He also penalized Giusti.
For most people, if you make a $30,000 profit, you only would pay tax on $15,000. In this case, the court found that because Romano was in the business of buying and selling homes, he had to pay tax on the entire profit.”
http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/09/11/court-determines-realtor-has-to-pay-income-tax-rates-on-re-flip-profits-the-cra-discovered-that-giusti-had-bought-and-sold-seven-condos-in-seven-years/
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September 11th, 2012 at 11:31 am 23
@boogeybear:
So true. My father is a case in point: ever since he retired (five years ago) he’s been busy doing renovations and fixing up the yard. It has been good for him, however, in that it keeps him active and the added physical labour keeps him healthier than he otherwise would be. That being said, he could probably get the same amount of exercise were he to actually, you know, exercise, but the renovation work has one added side-effect: it keeps my mother happy!
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September 11th, 2012 at 11:40 am 24
@Ben:
Nice chart, Ben! A seemingly minor problem, though, with the part quoted above. This relates to a larger issue with respect to the presentation (both graphical and verbal) of data. Your verbal description of the dynamics of renovation growth over time (“a full GDP percentage point above…”) is less striking than the graph. I think it would be more appropriate in this case to have written that the current level of renovation activity (as a percentage of GDP) is 50% higher than the long-term average.
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September 11th, 2012 at 11:53 am 25
Some data porn from Van, Toronto, Montreal and a look at why a 2009 style demand rebound is very unlikely given current credit trends.
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/09/11/canadian-housing-theres-an-obvious-oversupply-problem-in-vancouver-toronto-and-montreal/
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September 11th, 2012 at 12:03 pm 26
http://www.buyric.com/vancouver/2012/09/greater-vancouver-bc-assessments-increased-up-2012/9212/
Wow BC assessments up 16%, so now sellers can update their banners from 5% below assessment to 20% below assessment.
Buy now before it drops!!
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September 11th, 2012 at 12:31 pm 27
I read this article and thought about that Marketing stat that it takes 8 unique impressions to have an impact on a consumer.
Tonight I will go home and have access to three or four channels exclusively programmed for home renovation shows. Easy credit, low interest… renovating a home is almost as knee jerk a reaction as buying a coke,
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September 11th, 2012 at 12:49 pm 28
@patriotz: Lascelles contends that “Even when rates rise, the necessary deleveraging may not be as painful as some imagine.”
I think this is a mistake, and this was highlighted recently by a blogger out of the US looking at the likely path for a US housing recovery. As rates drop payments increase geometrically but the ability to pay is linear. If rates are to rise, it means that the burden to service loans taken under a low-rate environment must increase above inflation and act as a drag on growth. A country like the US can likely sustain this while still growing because its house prices are low relative to incomes and can therefore sustain an increased burden of rising rates. Canada, on the other hand, is not so lucky. Debt to income ratios are too high to withstand higher real rates.
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September 11th, 2012 at 12:59 pm 29
@jesse:
“A country like the US can likely sustain this while still growing because its house prices are low relative to incomes and can therefore sustain an increased burden of rising rates.”
And, unlike Canadians, american homeowners do not have to renew their mortgages every few years so rising rates only affect potential future purchasers. Here, no one is safe…
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September 11th, 2012 at 1:11 pm 30
@Vote Down The Facts: I expect to see a lot of the 2BDRM–>1BDRM and 2UNIT-1UNIT transformations in the future. Once prices get to realistic levels (plus “Vancouver premium” so not realistic for ROW) there will be zero demand for the tiny 600sqft and smaller units regardless of bedroom quantity. A 2BDRM should not be below 1000sqft and a 1 BDRM should not be below 800sqft IMO. The city planners also want more familes downtown so we will need three bedroom units and these should run 12-1400sqft minimum so the only way I see all this happening is joining units and knocking down walls.
The only thing I hope is that developer had the forethought to design their micro-condos with at least one non-loadbearing portion at least the size of a door between units to allow for this; if not, it will not be knocking down walls but knocking down buildings!
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September 11th, 2012 at 1:28 pm 31
@YLTNboomerang: I actually don’t see a lot of the 2-to-1 transformations as many mentioned here, except in the highest-end areas like downtown. Reason: For the rest of the areas, the prices will drop so low and the supply will be so abundant that it’s not worth the effort to spend the (perhaps) $20-40k for a conversion.
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September 11th, 2012 at 1:33 pm 32
Clear sign of good things to come for local Vancouver buyers.
V967319
2628 W. 11th Avenue
1.28m list (below assessment)
Sold 1.23m
South side of the street
http://www.ecorealtyinc.ca/listing?id=259714516
Let’s remember, this is only the beginning of reductions from peak (i.e. peak prices in Vancouver were approx Feb-April). In other words, what’s it going to be like in Spring? The Maclean’s article referenced earlier at post 25 (http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/09/11/canadian-housing-theres-an-obvious-oversupply-problem-in-vancouver-toronto-and-montreal/) is a great synthesis of why things can’t get any better for bulls, even if one argues things can’t get worse.
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September 11th, 2012 at 1:33 pm 33
@vanpire:
#29,
the US can sustain? how have they sustained in the past four years? another QE coming up incase you have not noticed. Are you overdosed?
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September 11th, 2012 at 1:40 pm 34
@Al: So according to the article, Vancouver proper saw an assessed value increase of 16.41% over last year. Yet it also said “Vancouver’s assessment roll increased from $222 billion last year to $254 billion in 2012. A total of almost $2.3 billion of this growth includes new construction, subdivisions, and rezoning.”
254/222-1 = 14.4%, and that has not net out the $2.3B of new builds. Can someone explain where the 16.41% number come from? Or are the people who do these calculations the same ones who work for REBGV (HPI)?
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September 11th, 2012 at 1:42 pm 35
@YLTNboomerang: Another problem is too much bathroom in small condos and how to deal with that. You often have 700-800 sqft condos with two bathtubs. Combine two of those, and you got four bathtubs to deal with, not to mention two toilets…and two kitchens.
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September 11th, 2012 at 1:44 pm 36
@Patiently Waiting: I mean four toilets
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September 11th, 2012 at 2:14 pm 37
We just completed a 110K reno on our home in Abbotsford.
Kitchen, Family room and 1/2 bath.
It was major. The knocking out walls kind.
I didn’t do it to increase the value of the home.
I did it because we bought the house in 1991 and it needed it.
We like the location and don’t have any plans to sell it. Ever.
Our kids will probably end up with it.
The house has been paid for for 9 years and we paid cash for the reno.
Not every homeowner is a debt slave living beyond their means.
Some people here know me. I’m no bull.
I fully expect a hard crash around these parts.
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September 11th, 2012 at 2:20 pm 38
@metalhead: I mean no disrespect metalhead, but if you fully expect a hard crash (which I do as well) why not sell now, rent, and buy a similar house in 7 or 8 years when they are 50% off?
Since your home is paid off it seems like an easy way to make several hundred $$$
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September 11th, 2012 at 2:26 pm 39
@metalhead:
I’m so sorry to hear that. My CONDOlences.
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September 11th, 2012 at 2:43 pm 40
Ha Ha…I love this site…bunch of people who claim to hate Vancouver but absolutely obsessed 24/7 with the price of Real Estate…too funny.
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September 11th, 2012 at 2:46 pm 41
I personally love renos, they keep thins interesting. Houses can get very boring after a while so reno’s really change things.
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September 11th, 2012 at 2:51 pm 42
@Lurker: That’s a relatively low price. I recall my friend saying in Spring 2011 that tear-downs were going for $1.5M in the 45th-Ontario area. That’s a big drop considering Kits is more desirable.
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September 11th, 2012 at 2:57 pm 43
Gonna be great when our NDP gets in…Vancouver gonna become a friggin ghost town!
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September 11th, 2012 at 3:05 pm 44
Low troll index and a Comment Foreclosure rate of less than 7%!! Must be a crazy busy sales day!
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September 11th, 2012 at 3:09 pm 45
@Johnny: I know! There must be a technical term for this sort of personality disorder.
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September 11th, 2012 at 3:29 pm 46
@Johnny: “Ha Ha…I love this site…bunch of people who claim to hate Vancouver but bla bal bal bal ”
I love this site because it’s the only place on the net where you can see what every Realtard in Vancouver is doing in their spare time (and apparently there’s a LOT of spare time
). Too, too, too funny! But seriously, you should be brushing up on your coffee making skills. You can think of it as ‘career training’. But make no mistake; it’s a lot tougher than being a Realtard so be sure to work on the right mindset. And remember: you won’t be selling yourself, you’ll be selling coffee, and that’s something useful.
I love the smell of Realtard despair in the morning (and at all other times really
)
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September 11th, 2012 at 4:16 pm 47
@Anonymous: “I love this site because it’s the only place on the net where you can see what every Realtard in Vancouver is doing in their spare time ”
It’s fun to pigeonhole people who happy to disagree with you.
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September 11th, 2012 at 4:35 pm 48
@Al:
This is fairly old news as it is July 2011. What will be interesting is which locations will have July 2012 be lower. I think we will see flat Vancouver but down Richmond. Most will be flat to up a bit. We will not see 16% increases at all.
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September 11th, 2012 at 4:39 pm 49
@Eddie
My kids are living in the house and going to UFV.
I’m working outside of the country now and am almost never there.
Did the reno. mostly so it will be ready when I finish this contract and come home.
I have a house in Panama and Tulsa for work. I’ll be buying another one in Denver soon.
It’s not worth the hassle for me right now to sell in Abby and have to find a place for the kids plus move all my junk. I also don’t want to lose the location. It’s irreplacable. Last house on a dead end street with a park behind me.
Don’t mean to sound like a dick but a couple hundred grand won’t change my lifestyle much at this point.
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September 11th, 2012 at 4:47 pm 50
@metalhead:
I think that the main comment is that “a couple hundred thousand won’t change the lifestyle”.
When that is the case, it is just not worth it trying to sell / rent / buy etc.
Not everyone is in that position and those without real estate who are low net-worth should not buy in this market . . . period . .
BTW – the Article by Victor Adair (see #6) is a good one to read up on. He probably has some decent net worth but he rents. Probably living in a freaking unbelievable place for $8,000 per month where it’s worth $3M+ and has at least $2K / month of taxes and strata.
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September 11th, 2012 at 4:50 pm 51
@metalhead: Learn from Dick! He bought his house back in ’91 and now a couple of hundred grand mean nothing to him. If you buy now, five hundred grand will mean nothing to you either in about 20 years!
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September 11th, 2012 at 5:02 pm 52
Not enough rich people around to pay for provincial programs (only 2% of the.population) contrary to the myth perpetrated by politicians that “the rich should pay their fair share”. So the middle class/poor always actually pay for
government in the end since they are the bulk source of revenue.
Besides, it won’t effect the rich here since they keep their wealth sheltered in assets and businesses, if not completely
offshore.
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September 11th, 2012 at 5:23 pm 53
@Vote Down The Facts: “It’s fun to pigeonh blah, blah, blah. ….”
Whatever dude. The days of Realtard Kings is over. Get a new career instead of wasting your time here hoping the inevitable won’t arrive. The Grim Reatard cometh.
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September 11th, 2012 at 5:28 pm 54
@Anonymous: “Realtard”
Grow up.
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September 11th, 2012 at 5:34 pm 55
@Vote Down The Facts: er, I think that’s “Grow Op”.
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September 11th, 2012 at 5:34 pm 56
@Vote Down The Facts:
Indeed, that’s so immature.
We all know they’re Used House Salesmen®.
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September 11th, 2012 at 5:43 pm 57
Just got an email from Bosa/Appia promoting SOLO (Brentwood area, burnaby):
“Hot Market Update! SOLO District’s Summer Offering a Huge Success – Oversubscribed!
Dear ##,
Good News! Jim Bosa has agreed to release 75 brand new suites while preserving this summer’s pricing.
We know these homes will sell out extremely quickly, and to appreciate your early registration, we have reserved 30 of the suites just for our registrants. The first 30 buyers can receive $5000 to $10,000 off their purchase! ”
So bulls, no need to worry. Jim Bosa is not dropping his prices on his presales. He’s just giving $5-10k discounts to the first 30 buyers — assuming he can find that many.
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September 11th, 2012 at 5:44 pm 58
Big sale in Pt Grey today – 1988 Drummond Drive.
Listed Jan 18, $19.6M
Reduced to $18.6M
Sold for $16.17M
4 bedroom, 8 bathroom with a 1600 bottle wine cellar.
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September 11th, 2012 at 5:50 pm 59
New Listings 329
Price Changes 135
Sold Listings 79
TI:18710
http://www.paulboenisch.com
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September 11th, 2012 at 5:51 pm 60
@metalhead: “We just completed a 110K reno on our home in Abbotsford.”
In 5 years you will be lucky to get 110K for a house in Abbotsford.
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September 11th, 2012 at 5:56 pm 61
@paulb: Back to the new normal… Lol. Btw, i like the +100 inventory a day. Keep them comin’!
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September 11th, 2012 at 5:58 pm 62
@metalhead: “I’m working outside of the country now and am almost never there.”
If you have to leave your family and work outside the country and can only afford to live in Abbotsford then you could use the couple of hundred grand selling would get you. Just saying.
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September 11th, 2012 at 6:01 pm 63
Here is the updated sales graph: http://i48.tinypic.com/2poz2uc.gif
According to this, the first 6 days after labour day have resulted in the following stats for the past 3 years:
2012 = 24.8% SL
(486 sell / 1960 list)
2011 = 34.3% SL
(624 sell / 1819 list)
2010 = 41.4% SL
(625 sell / 1511 list)
So as we can see, sell-list ratio is much weaker so far in 2012 than it was in the past 2 years. Sales are lower, while listings are higher.
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September 11th, 2012 at 6:03 pm 64
How many 19K parties have we had so far?
I’m ready for another.
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September 11th, 2012 at 6:08 pm 65
@ScubaSteve:
I know this is an imposition, but is there any way you could present this information graphically? I find the lists of numbers difficiult to follow.
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September 11th, 2012 at 6:19 pm 66
@Best place on meth: Only 2 so far this year but #3 is coming quickly
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September 11th, 2012 at 6:25 pm 67
Beautiful numbers. The beat down continues…
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September 11th, 2012 at 6:28 pm 68
100+ sales streak broken at 1 day.
But look whuzzup in Van East.
“what an odd market we have.
listings rising and scant sales…yet, if there is
one sale/day it’s usually a strong one.”
I agree one sale is odd mkay
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September 11th, 2012 at 6:54 pm 69
@Best place on meth:
Sold to a wealthy Chinese from Shanghai.14 million to him is jus pocket money.
There are 50 million billionairs in China and countless multi-millions dollar,middle class.Anyone with asset less than a million US is regarded as poor.
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September 11th, 2012 at 7:38 pm 70
When was the ‘Mac Bulk’ stuff in 2008/09? I mean, how far into the 2008 drop did the bulk 25% discounted condos stuff start? My recollection was that it was 6-8 months after the peak. In 2012 terms, kind of now-ish. So, I wonder when we start seeing that for projections-in-progress etc.
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September 11th, 2012 at 7:42 pm 71
I think the difference between now and 2008 was that the markets were dropping and people needed to get out or needed cash cause their investments were getting wiped out. Which we’re not seeing this time, so it’ll be a longer drawn out process unless they raise interest rates.
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September 11th, 2012 at 7:47 pm 72
Still tracking below 2008′s 1585 sales.
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September 11th, 2012 at 7:49 pm 73
Number of 300+ listings days in September:
2010: zero. (highest was 282)
2011: 5
2012: 4 in the first 6 days. The other two days were 290 and 295.
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September 11th, 2012 at 7:50 pm 74
@VHB: whoops that should say September 11 not 10th of course.
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September 11th, 2012 at 7:55 pm 75
@VHB:
The H+H receivership sale was March 2008.
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September 11th, 2012 at 8:09 pm 76
@s: “I think the difference between now and 2008 was that the markets were dropping and people needed to get out or needed cash cause their investments were getting wiped out.”
Don’t forget the 24/7 doom on CNN.
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September 11th, 2012 at 8:28 pm 77
Canada again makes mish spotlight
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September 11th, 2012 at 8:41 pm 78
@VMD:
“100% without a doubt, Canada is in the midst of an immense housing bubble. The Canadian bubble outlasted bubbles in China and Australia. Because it did, I get taunts from Canadian readers all the time.”
Sounds like the same douchebags who pollute VCI are leaving comments on Mish’s site as well.
Real estate cheerleaders are incredibly worthless.
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September 11th, 2012 at 8:59 pm 79
Just started my own renos recently, painting closet doors. Went to homedepot and bought $50 worth of materials, painted two doors already, looks very nice.
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September 11th, 2012 at 9:06 pm 80
@VHB: I don’t think they’re going to go in that direction this time. I had the misfortune to take a meeting with a bunch of RE guys from the burbs looking to set up a special kinda real estate marketing company online and they were all pissy about the fact that Mac (was it Cam Good?) blew the floor out from under prices.
So despite it being successful, they felt spiteful as some of their clients took too big a loss against profits. I’d say the first comment by Debt Sheeple really sums it up for the marketers in and behind the OV. They are staying calm, admitting that they’re flexible in price, but denying any big moves need to happen.
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September 11th, 2012 at 9:14 pm 81
when do I send that fuckwad Chimpman rocks in the mail (to shove up his ass) for being so wrong about inventory having reached it’s peak (what a fucknut)?
I want him to shit rocks for all the bullshit he spews.
Reality is catching up, at long last.
I for one think this crash will be much worse than the average bear forecasts. JMHO.
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September 11th, 2012 at 9:29 pm 82
I work in a department where many of my co-workers can make close to six figures and are mostly aged between 25 and 50. For the past five years I have been constantly told to take the plunge and buy a property with all the usual arguments like: “You shouldn’t pay somebody’s elses mortgage,” or “Buy now or be priced out forever,” or the most irritating “There is no more land in Vancouver.” For the most part I just kept quiet and nodded away as I was getting real estate advice from people who shouldn’t be giving any.
I had to endure this abuse for five whole years and I wanted to argue that the fundamentals just didn’t justify buying a property. But as prices continually went up I knew my arguments would fall on deaf years. Despite months of falling sales I have noticed that prices have pretty much stayed the same and the real estate mentality also remained unchanged. But this past week something changed. I could see the real estate tide starting to turn the other way. I had two separate conversations with two different co-workers which convince me that I can finally see the light at the end of the real estate tunnel.
CASE #1. 27 year old co-worker, still lives at home in Richmond, is engaged to a future dentist. Her family are small time builders that build houses one at a time. She tells me she wants to buy a single family house in Richmond as income property and one day she wants to knock it down and build her own house; meanwhile, she would be building up her equity. She has been looking at property around $750,000 but won’t pull the trigger until the same properties go for $650,000. She figures she can rent out the house in three portions and pull in $4000 per month. I don’t know what she has for a down payment but I can’t see how this makes any economic sense. But the main thing is her “builder” daddy fully expects for Richmond SFH prices to drop 15% in the near future. After telling me her intentions I asked her: “What happens if prices drop more than 15%?” She then gives me a blank stare and I can tell she has not even considered that as a possiblity.
CASE#2 25 year old coworker just got married and had a baby and is pregnant with baby #2. Her husband is a used car salesman. She bought a Richmond two bedroom condo in July 2010 for $360,000. Since her family is expanding she had put in an offer for a 2000 square foot townhouse in POCO for around $480,000 which was accepted and financing was taken care of as long as she sold her current property. I remember warning her about buying property in Richmond but her biggest argument was “Where else are all the rich Chinese immigrants are going to go?” Here is the kicker: She needed to sell her property for at least $345,000 but three agents would not even list her property unless she listed at $330,000. She was told that in her area nothing has moved since February. So I asked her “What are you going to do now?” and she says she will have to wait for things to turn around. I really like this co-worker and since she is now pregnant/emotional I decided not to give her a dose of reality but I think she is stuck in her 700 square foot condo with her family of four for the forseeable future.
The best part came at the end of our conversation when she said, “I wish I were you and just waited. But everybody was telling me to buy,buy,buy at the time. Now I am just stuck. Don’t make the same mistake that I made.”
I have to admit that felt pretty good.
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September 11th, 2012 at 9:30 pm 83
@gokou3: I don’t expect them yet, not until prices drop sufficiently that nobody in their right mind looks at the shoeboxes. As for the two kitchens & four bathroom issue; no big deal, you get the place for a steal so rip it out and sell the fixtures. A second gas line (if gas stove) means you now can put a gas fireplace in. Heck, put in a hot tub with the second set of plumbing!
As prices drop, 5xx soft place will be unsellable other than for student or homeless housing.
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September 11th, 2012 at 9:45 pm 84
@waiting
Bringing up two toddlers in a condo is not the end of the world. Ask people in Europe or Asia.
This bubble is bloated by a wave of naivety and entitlement.
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September 11th, 2012 at 9:46 pm 85
Can someone post on Chimpman’s site and let him know that this market is going to get crushed?
He’s delusional and needs help.
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September 11th, 2012 at 9:49 pm 86
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2012/9/10/Millions-at-stake-as-case-kicks-off-against-Toronto-Real-Estate-Board-.aspx
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September 11th, 2012 at 9:54 pm 87
@Best place on meth: @s: “Real estate cheerleaders are incredibly worthless.”
And you doom-and-gloom sayers provide a valuable service to society. We thank you for your service!
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September 11th, 2012 at 10:02 pm 88
@Romeo Jordan: “Can someone post on Chimpman’s site and let him know that this market is going to get crushed?”
What’s stopping you from doing it? IP ban?
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September 11th, 2012 at 10:05 pm 89
He seems to have some weird login ritual you have to go through. If you take note, you’ll see that no one is posting there. It’s a barren wasteland, devoid of value, other than Chimpy’s prediction of a listings peak which I disagree with. I think peak listings for 2012 is still in front of us.
JMHO
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September 11th, 2012 at 10:18 pm 90
Translink top ten ideas for bus advertising to replace Realturd Kings:
1. Bankruptcy / Insolvency Kings
2. King Kredit Kounsellors
3. Casino ads (under the slogan, “Decay? Pestilence? Bring it On!”)
4. Support Our Troops (Quick, someone find us a war…Harper?)
5. 2nd hand BMW salesman Kings
6. Even better, 2nd hand BMW discount repair shop Kings
7. Family Doctors (at least they’re in short supply)
8. Rent-to-Own Furniture Kings
9. Cheque-Cashing Kings
10. Realturd Retraining Kollege Kings
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September 11th, 2012 at 10:20 pm 91
What is the point of all this negativity. Living in Canada is punishment enough.
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September 11th, 2012 at 10:41 pm 92
Like Canada, Singapore has received a lot of mainland Chinese inflows into property. But there are differences as this story shows.
In the trial of a corrupt Chinese govt official who managed to squirrel away millions on his $500 salary, I was revealed that Chinese bureaucrats are. It allowed to apply for Singaporean PR.
http://www.todayonline.com/Singapore/EDC120911-0000163/Trial-begins-for-former-Chinese-official-arrested-in-Spore
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September 11th, 2012 at 10:59 pm 93
@HAM Solo: Mildly funny, but don’t give up your day job just yet, … assuming you have one.
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September 11th, 2012 at 11:21 pm 94
@Chip: Interesting, Kenney commented at his press conference yesterday that a “disproportionate” number of those whose Canadian PR/citizenships are being revoked are from “Persian Gulf states”.
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September 12th, 2012 at 12:03 am 95
@jesse:
Could be they are revoking citizenship on the low hanging fruit; ie, those who don’t meet residency requirements. It’s pretty easy to track.
But as for bureaucrats who flee to Canada with millions in stolen govt funds, that’s pretty hard to prove. Though the Singapore govt seems wise to it and simply banned any Chinese govt officials from applying for residency.
Makes sense. If you are a Chinese govt bureaucrat you don’t have the funds or skills to be a productive PR, and if you do have the funds you are probably a crook.
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September 27th, 2012 at 12:01 am 96
[...] The majority will stay put, renovate, buy back into the same market or turn their home equity into more debt via a [...]
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