Second worst August since 1998
The REBGV has released their Vancouver stats package for August 2012 and it’s a bit of a downer for the true believer.
Sales down, prices down, lots of use of the term ‘buyers market’.
In fact the home sales plunge just made last month the second worst August since 1998.
The group’s composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is $609,500 which is down 0.5% from a year ago and 1.1% from July.
Supply seems to be slowing with new listings for detached, attached and apartment properties 4,044 in August for a 13.7% decline from a year ago. New listings were down 15.8% from July.
At 17,567, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS was up 13.8% from a year ago but down 2.8% from last month.
Courtesy of Good Format, here’s the month drops and what that number looks like annualized:
MLS® Home Price Index July 2012 Aug 2012 Chg(%) Annualized(%) Detached 950,200 942,100 0.86 10.32 Attached 468,700 462,300 1.38 16.61 Apartment 374,300 370,100 1.13 13.61
Scubasteve shares some of the worst hit areas for prices:
DETACHED
-3.7% = Richmond
-3.7% = Vancouver West
-1.3% = Maple RidgeCONDOS
-8.0% = Burnaby South
-7.9% = Port Coquitlam
-6.4% = Burnaby EastTOWNHOUSE
-8.8% = Tsawwassen
-8.3% = Burnaby North
-4.5% = Maple Ridge
And the worst areas for sales:
1) West Vancouver (-65.6%)
Aug/12 = 34 sales
Aug/11 = 96 sales2) Burnaby (-47.5%)
Aug/12 = 174 sales
Aug/11 = 331 sales3) Coquitlam (-41.6%)
Aug/12 = 122 sales
Aug/11 = 209 sales4) Richmond (-31.2%)
Aug/12 = 179 sales
Aug/11 = 260 sales5) Vancouver West (-31.0%)
Aug/12 = 362 sales
Aug/11 = 524 sales6) Vancouver East (-29.6%)
Aug/12 = 169 sales
Aug/11 = 240 sales7) North Vancouver (-29.0%)
Aug/12 = 113 sales
Aug/11 = 159 sales
Read his full comment here.
If we don’t see a flood of listings in the Fall then that will help to let some of the downward pressure off the market, but there isn’t much looking up in the outlook. We’re now a couple of months into the new mortgage rules that have taken out some first time buyers and put pressure on $1 million houses.
With housing affordability in Vancouver at a record low it’s only going to get trickier to find a buyer unless we get a new flood of credit or higher paying jobs.
September 6th, 2012 at 12:08 am 1
I love looking at the “worst” but to round things out I think highlighting the “best” is worthwhile. From one spineless blogger to another.
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September 6th, 2012 at 12:42 am 2
@jesse:
What “best” do you want highlighted? Only 2 cities in the entire REBGV had YoY increases in sales: Sunshine Coast and Whistler. Meanwhile, the other 18 cities has their YoY sales go down. What’s the bigger story here?
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September 6th, 2012 at 12:48 am 3
@ScubaSteve: “What’s the bigger story here?”
That the “best” isn’t that good. At all. I think that’s an important observation because earlier this year that wasn’t true.
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September 6th, 2012 at 1:02 am 4
Vancouver East: Oops!
http://s7.postimage.org/4w2fy8ofv/Van_E.jpg
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September 6th, 2012 at 1:39 am 5
Everybody relax. They can fix this. Cut interest rates to -3% and double the government’s backing of risky loans to 2 trillion.
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September 6th, 2012 at 5:34 am 6
I don’t get it. If it is common knowledge that you have to lower the price to sell your house in this market, how do prices remain stagnant? Is it the new MLS HPI that is skewing the numbers? Lying realtors?
When I read articles about RE prices nationally they always talk about prices in Vancouver pulling the national average down yet….prices here remain stable???
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September 6th, 2012 at 5:40 am 7
1 jesse Says:“…I think highlighting the “best” is worthwhile….”
No reasonable person argues against considering the opposing view, but what added value does comparing August to other months have over sticking with apples-vs-apples? I think that risks accusations of moving goalposts to downplay extraordinarily bad news.
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September 6th, 2012 at 6:27 am 8
Vancouver Sun is trumpetting the strength of Vancouver’s commercial real estate and seems to be ignoring weak August sales for residential real estate (was there even a story about that in the Sun?).
“Commercial real estate transactions in Metro Vancouver reached an unprecedented six-month total of $1.42 billion during the first half of 2012, breaking the previous record of $1.03 billion set during the first half of 2010, according to a report released Wednesday.
The figures point to a longer-term surge and confidence in commercial land investments, experts say, but belie anxiety over diminishing industrial land availability as it gives way to more apartments and office towers.
“One of the things that is striking about (the high sales numbers), and I think is probably driving a lot of the activity, is really the commercial side,” said Tsur Somerville, director at the Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate at the Sauder School of Business at the University of B.C.
Investors poured more than $700 million into office buildings during the first half of the year, up from the $499 million invested in all of 2011, according to the report from Avison Young. The number of transactions increased to 17, from 12 in the first half of 2011 and 13 in the latter half.”
http://www.vancouversun.com/Business/Commericial-Real-Estate/Metro+Vancouver+commercial+real+estate/7196810/story.html
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September 6th, 2012 at 7:39 am 9
@Sparky_604: “I don’t get it. If it is common knowledge that you have to lower the price to sell your house in this market, how do prices remain stagnant?”
Prices are stagnant because people aren’t lowering their prices and sales are at almost all time lows.
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September 6th, 2012 at 8:36 am 10
@B. Panther:
There’s little distress in the market.
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September 6th, 2012 at 8:59 am 11
Yes, it is different this time, but the “new paradigm” will surprise. This time, unlike 2008, healthy panic will be delayed until too late. Liquidity at this point would suggest more upside. The market will go down light and one morning everybody will wake up to evaporated paper wealth and debt obligations exceeding their remaining lifetime earning potential. Many will declare bankruptcy and new laws will be enacted to make underwater mortgages non-dischargable in bankruptcy. People will be forced to disappear and take on false identities to escape their debts.
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September 6th, 2012 at 9:18 am 12
@Bounce Overconfidence: i cannot imagine the miserable life you are having! There is plenty of jobs outthere that people refuse to do it; because they think they deserve more.
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September 6th, 2012 at 9:28 am 13
I’m lucky that all is have is the “good” debt that my REALTOR® recommended to build equity in the pre-sale condos I’m closing on!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/canadians-stretched-to-limit-as-moodys-warns-of-sky-high-debt-loads/article4523113/
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September 6th, 2012 at 9:28 am 14
@Bounce Overconfidence:
“Many will declare bankruptcy and new laws will be enacted to make underwater mortgages non-dischargable in bankruptcy.”
Yeah right. Harper is not going to turn over the keys to 24 Sussex that easily.
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September 6th, 2012 at 9:33 am 15
LOL:
“The mortgage insurance rule changes that took effect July 9 will shave three percentage points off of home prices and five percentage points off sales, Toronto-Dominion Bank chief economist Craig Alexander predicts.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/tighter-mortgage-rules-will-cool-housing-market-td/article4523084/
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September 6th, 2012 at 9:36 am 16
stupid bears keep saying interest rates have nowhere to go but up, guess what! a five years fixed can be had for 2.99%; down from 3.29% in the spring. how about that, stupid bears!
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September 6th, 2012 at 9:39 am 17
Interesting comment on that Globe story:
http://sitelife.theglobeandmail.com/ver1.0/gocomm?ck=CommentKey%3a67aaa99c-c945-4bc3-b4be-5196c46dd482
” L Rob
11:32 AM on September 6, 2012
I’m a Realtor, an elected official and had lunch with a banker yesterday.
The changes in qualification and to line of credit ratios appear benign but will actually have a big effect in debt driven consumer markets such as Vancouver lower mainland.
Equity mortgages are basically dead. You must have income to support the mortgage and show where the income is originating via your tax form. Offshore investors slapping down 50% no questions asked are finished unless they show their declared income … not something they like to do.
Downsizing boomers, we are now in the first wave, who planned on cashing in the home, putting some money aside for income and taking out a little mortgage for new townhouse or condo. are in trouble. Their retirement income will not qualify for a mortgage. I had three listings cancel last month, when these changes were announced, by boomers planning to downsize.
Small business is screwed because they now have to show their tax declared income, not their claimed income as was the practice here in BC.
Small builders, likewise. They can no longer get debt financing to start a new project based upon the equity in an existing build. They have to show income.
The rest of Canada may not understand that in BC, credit unions were giving out $350,000 mortgages for a pulse during the peak in 2006. Zero down, intent to pay based upon a claimed income.
The drug money now must show income. A big whack down is no longer sufficient.
Now throw in LOC ratio down from 80% to 65% and the BC practice of using your house equity as an auto teller is suddenly stifled.
Subtle changes but big impacts over the next year.”
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September 6th, 2012 at 9:47 am 18
@Bounce Overconfidence:
Because of Chinese hot money,Dow gone up 250 point this morning la,idiot.Chinese will start buying Vancouver houses in hundred a day coz there are ten of thousands…. wealthy Chinese immigrants like settling in Vancouver and China likes to establish a bridgehead here to extend its economic and military strangle hold on declining US.Vancouver will the beneficiary of Chinese investment.
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September 6th, 2012 at 9:47 am 19
@VHB: You are realtor,I am Chairman Wu.
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September 6th, 2012 at 9:48 am 20
@Anonymous:
That is call mental F up
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September 6th, 2012 at 10:03 am 21
@patriotz:
The smart ones will be planning their escape now, while things are still quiet. The really smart ones already have home, car, bank account under a false name so they can just take the money out and resume their legitimate identity with the proceeds of the scam.
Some humorous excerpts from http://www.panamalaw.org/how_to_disappear_one_step_beyond_asset_protection.html
What If I Make a Mistake and Get Exposed– Then you get to our law firm in Guatemala very fast and we start all over again. No worries, just expensive so try to be careful.
I want to Disappear – Ok come visit our law firm in Guatemala in person. We are not going to go into details on the phone or in email for many reasons including your own protection and the protection of our other clients….
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September 6th, 2012 at 10:11 am 22
@Bounce Overconfidence: It’s just sad to see these kinds of brainfarts voted up. Completely ruins our credibility.
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September 6th, 2012 at 10:24 am 23
@ScubaSteve: Those two areas that saw a sales increase have one other thing in common- last year they had abysmally low sales and prices have been dropping for more than a year.
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September 6th, 2012 at 10:27 am 24
@fixie guy: “what added value does comparing August to other months have over sticking with apples-vs-apples”
Some areas cited — Coquitlam, Burnaby, North and East Van — that are now on the “worst” list were originally areas that were doing better than the headline Richmond/VW/WV weakness. That’s something I would highlight more strongly.
It’s like watching those waterhose carnival games at the PNE where horses run to the finish line. Those areas are fading.
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September 6th, 2012 at 10:32 am 25
@VHB: Yes I think people underestimate OSFI’s resolve to curtail credit growth and properly implement Canada’s version of Basel III. Look at the latest Bank of Canada release — only a small reference to credit growth and it’s no longer a “risk”. Why is that? My guess is because they know what’s coming so it’s not a “risk” anymore.
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September 6th, 2012 at 10:36 am 26
@jesse: “Yes I think people underestimate OSFI’s resolve to curtail credit growth and properly implement Canada’s version of Basel II”
yes. absolutely. i for one trust the judgement of bears on this blog. their track record speaks for its self.
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September 6th, 2012 at 10:57 am 27
@Anonymous: I agree. Average sheeple aren’t going to “disappear” and make false identities.
But the possibility of making CMHC mortgages non-dischargable is at least considering. They did it with student loans. So why not? I suppose it can’t be done retroactively.
It is going to be interesting to see what the bubble collapse does to a lot of Vancouverites. I mean, our bubble has grown to exceptional proportions and has somehow stayed inflated for what seems like an unusually long time.
Family fortunes will be lost, once proud people will be forced to do menial jobs, McMansions will become rooming houses, those who can will get the hell out of Dodge…the mind boggles at the impacts. I have to remember that some of it will be too tragic to find amusing.
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September 6th, 2012 at 11:12 am 28
@Patiently Waiting:
If they did make them non-dischargable that would, of course, be a prod in the inflationary direction, just as it has been with student loans, because the risk of default goes down, making lenders more likely to issue loans. Another thing that making a load non-discharagble does is shift the burden of evaluation from the lender to the borrower. That’s a particular problem with mortgages, as we have seen that the average person is entirely lacking in the ability to evaluate investments in real estate.
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September 6th, 2012 at 11:42 am 29
@24 jesse: “That’s something I would highlight more strongly.”
From an academic point of view, why? What’s to be gained? That some areas are better than others at different times is a statistical certainty. It doesn’t warrant cherry picking locations to soften the news. Even the Sun, among local media the greatest booster of real estate, bluntly admits ‘Vancouver home sales plunge, posting second-worst August since 1998′.
At some point always looking to the bright side becomes a distortion in itself, no matter how generously it’s positioned.
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September 6th, 2012 at 11:45 am 30
@fixie guy: ” It doesn’t warrant cherry picking locations to soften the news”
It’s not cherry-picking, it’s following all areas simultaneously and consistently. It’s both the severity and length of weakness that’s important.
Not to take away from what’s being described here, my interest is only on getting the full picture. And that Burnaby and Coquitlam and others are now on the list is a BFD IMO.
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September 6th, 2012 at 11:58 am 31
Are you guys aware of this site: http://re.olvius.com/home
It tracks daily prices/new listings in the Lower Mainland. Pretty slick.
Dunno who’s behind it tho…
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September 6th, 2012 at 12:01 pm 32
Robert Shiller on BNN discussing Canada’s housing market, click on link below.
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip754980
If you are a bull and this doesn’t make you want to vomit in fear or rage there is something very, very wrong with you.
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September 6th, 2012 at 12:07 pm 33
In other news, BC youth can join a new job-training program for the highly-skilled positions that the BC economy will need over the coming decades.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/09/06/bc-pole-dancing.html
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September 6th, 2012 at 12:14 pm 34
@AfroFrancophone: Person behind it is Oleksandr Lishchuk – a software developer living in New West.
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September 6th, 2012 at 12:23 pm 35
@UnagiDon: your comment is just as sour as it can get. is life sucked for you?
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September 6th, 2012 at 12:25 pm 36
@AfroFrancophone:
Interesting site. The “all properties added today” section is quite helpful. So is the price change listing.
Good to see sites like that and vancouverpricedrop springing up.
we can only hope one day MLS will become public.
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September 6th, 2012 at 12:26 pm 37
@Patiently Waiting: you just want the market collape to see your rich sister’s fortune destroyed. still jealousy of her, arent you!
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September 6th, 2012 at 12:27 pm 38
@Anonymous: UnagiDon and ScubaSteve are the most cynical, miserable, bitter people I know. (Not that I really know them, thank God.)
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September 6th, 2012 at 1:00 pm 39
@VMD: We now also have the confirmation that 90%+ of price changes are actually decreases…
There are a few messed up ones:
- Maple Ridge: 26415 121ST AV from (04-Jul-12) $1,149,000.00 to (06-Sep-12) $1,188,888.00 [yeah, I'm sure all those 8's will help]
- New Westminster: #1600 328 CLARKSON ST from (04-Jul-12) $998,800.00 to (06-Sep-12) $1,000,000.00 [this guy probably didn't get the memo that properties above $1million can no longer qualify for CMHC]
- Richmond: #125 8511 ACKROYD RD from (03-Jul-12) $182,000.00 to (06-Sep-12) $243,000.00 +33% [no more bidding war in Richmond, eh?]
- Vancouver: 441 E 48TH AV from (04-Jul-12) $998,000.00 to (11-Jul-12) $968,000.00 to (06-Sep-12) $1,048,000.00 [I can't decide which price I want so let's put it just above $1 million... #fail]
Very entertaining indeed…
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September 6th, 2012 at 1:14 pm 40
Jobs and affordable housing draw young people, families away from B.C
Yep, count me in. I’ve just completed the relocation of my family from Wetcouver to Winterpeg. I’ll be back in 5 years, once RE prices will have come down to earth
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September 6th, 2012 at 1:15 pm 41
Money laundering: real estate broker jailed a year in senior’s defrauding
-bad boy.
September 05, 2012
A willfully blind real estate broker who laundered a $700,000 cheque fraudulently obtained from a mentally incompetent senior, leaving the man “almost destitute,” has been sentenced to a year in jail.
Peter Chiu, 72, used his position as a real estate broker and the CIBC bank account of his brokerage, Golden Land Realty, in 2010 to deposit a $700,000 cheque handed to him by a business acquaintance, Kevin Tsui, and later defray the money to various people and businesses.
In return, Chiu received an $11,500 “administrative fee.”
The Real Estate Council of Ontario has since revoked his licence.
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September 6th, 2012 at 1:29 pm 42
@Makaya: Did you pay your $200 strata fine before you left? Or did you stiff your landlord, as suggested by patriotz? (or was it jesse?)
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September 6th, 2012 at 1:31 pm 43
@Makaya: Can I ask what field you’re in (that enables you to move to Winnipeg for 5 years and then back)? There isn’t a lot of openings in what I do – maybe 100 positions in all of Canada – so mobility isn’t easy. (Versus the 11,000 realtors in BC alone).
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September 6th, 2012 at 1:37 pm 44
@Anonymous: ” Did you pay your $200 strata fine before you left? Or did you stiff your landlord, as suggested by patriotz? (or was it jesse?)”
The $200 fee was waived thankfully. It turns out that the concierge at the origin of the trouble is a recognized asshole. I sent a letter to the strata board and talk to the property management company and after hearing my side of the story, decided to waive the fee. The fact that I’ve been a very good tenant and left the property in better shape than when I moved in probably helped as well…
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September 6th, 2012 at 1:40 pm 45
@/dev/null: I’m in consulting. My company has offices across Canada and I can ask to be transferred to where I want to live. Work location is not that important in our business as we travel a lot. My main client for the foreseeable future is in Winnipeg, hence my relocation.
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September 6th, 2012 at 1:46 pm 46
@Anonymous:
“Or did you stiff your landlord, as suggested by patriotz? ”
What I said is that the strata did not follow the legally required process so there was no fine to pay by anyone.
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September 6th, 2012 at 1:53 pm 47
@VMD: Senior on senior fraud. I wonder if that’s the new trend. They are all so adorable with their sweet, wrinkly faces until…
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September 6th, 2012 at 1:54 pm 48
@N:
“Another thing that making a load non-discharagble does is shift the burden of evaluation from the lender to the borrower.”
Not when a 3rd party is guaranteeing that the lender is going to get his money back. In that case the lender is really only concerned about meeting the guarantor’s criteria.
Even when there isn’t a guarantee you can’t get blood from a stone and getting rid of bankruptcy isn’t going to reduce the lenders’ risk, and thus burden of evaluation, meaningfully.
In general terms, making bankruptcy harder to get does not make borrowers more cautious – especially with respect to mortgage lending – because they never think they’re going to be unable to repay, i.e. they don’t rationally evaluate possible outcomes. Ireland has among the toughest bankruptcy criteria in the EU – many Irish are moving to the UK just to declare BK there, and Spain is even worse, in that mortgage debt cannot be discharged in bankruptcy. And as we all know these countries saw among the biggest housing bubbles and busts on the planet.
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September 6th, 2012 at 2:04 pm 49
Saw this on Garth Turner’s Blog:
Has anyone else here observed the same thing? If true, does this not constitute fraud?
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September 6th, 2012 at 2:07 pm 50
@Deliverator:
“If true, does this not constitute fraud?”
It’s not fraud because they’re not selling anyone the index, rather providing it for free. They have to responsibility to anyone to be accurate.
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September 6th, 2012 at 2:11 pm 51
@Deliverator: Is this perhaps an issue of the August 2011 “old-HPI” being converted to a “new-HPI”? They re-calculated all the previous years’ results using the new formula, didn’t they?
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September 6th, 2012 at 2:24 pm 52
@VMD:
Thanks God he is not Chinese but some Norwegian bastard.
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September 6th, 2012 at 2:34 pm 53
was gathering stats for a Chinese forum post when I came across this:
Average Income Per Taxfiler ($)
It’s interesting to see Metro Vancouver Avg income/Taxfiler in 1994 ($40,379) is almost unchanged by 2009 ($41,176).
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September 6th, 2012 at 2:37 pm 54
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/tighter-mortgage-rules-will-cool-housing-market-td/article4523084/comments/
L Rob
11:32 AM on September 6, 2012
I’m a Realtor, an elected official and had lunch with a banker yesterday.
The changes in qualification and to line of credit ratios appear benign but will actually have a big effect in debt driven consumer markets such as Vancouver lower mainland.
Equity mortgages are basically dead. You must have income to support the mortgage and show where the income is originating via your tax form. Offshore investors slapping down 50% no questions asked are finished unless they show their declared income … not something they like to do.
Downsizing boomers, we are now in the first wave, who planned on cashing in the home, putting some money aside for income and taking out a little mortgage for new townhouse or condo. are in trouble. Their retirement income will not qualify for a mortgage. I had three listings cancel last month, when these changes were announced, by boomers planning to downsize.
Small business is screwed because they now have to show their tax declared income, not their claimed income as was the practice here in BC.
Small builders, likewise. They can no longer get debt financing to start a new project based upon the equity in an existing build. They have to show income.
The rest of Canada may not understand that in BC, credit unions were giving out $350,000 mortgages for a pulse during the peak in 2006. Zero down, intent to pay based upon a claimed income.
The drug money now must show income. A big whack down is no longer sufficient.
Now throw in LOC ratio down from 80% to 65% and the BC practice of using your house equity as an auto teller is suddenly stifled.
Subtle changes but big impacts over the next year.
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September 6th, 2012 at 2:38 pm 55
@patriotz: You said that, and a few other things. Would you like me to go back and find the exact quote?
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September 6th, 2012 at 2:49 pm 56
@Anonymous: “and a few other things”
And what: the strata was reasonable and Makaya doesn’t have to pay the fine. A victory for democracy.
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September 6th, 2012 at 3:08 pm 57
@Mick Murphy: I wish smart and connected people like L. Rob were regulars on this blog.
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September 6th, 2012 at 3:27 pm 58
@VMD: “The Real Estate Council of Ontario has since revoked his licence.”
Just wondering: does that that mean that he’s not eligible to serve coffee, or that a different part of a RE license?
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September 6th, 2012 at 3:28 pm 59
Can someone explain this to me.
When we see stats like sales in August are the worst since 19xx, isn’t it really even worse than that?
Let’s say 10 years ago there were 1,000,000 properties in Vancouver.
Sure today there must be at least 1,100,000 properties or more.
Doesn’t that mean sales should be higher given the total number of properties over the past 10 years has increased?
Sales should always be rising year over year.
If this is the worse August in 10 years, it’s actually much worse.
Am I grasping at straws?
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September 6th, 2012 at 3:39 pm 60
@kansai92:
Also interesting to note that,
in Aug 2001, “The REBGV is an association representing some 7,000 Greater Vancouver Realtors.”
in Aug 2012, “The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is an association representing 11,000 REALTORS®”
There’s a Chinese proverb for this: “Too many monks; too little congee”
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September 6th, 2012 at 3:40 pm 61
@B Panther: Tell me about it!! There is a real lack of smart people here.
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September 6th, 2012 at 3:41 pm 62
@Anonymous: And those who are smart are bitter basement dwellers and not so well connected!
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September 6th, 2012 at 3:48 pm 63
@Anonymous: Don’t get me wrong. I don’t have a problem with dummies. I’m no genius. I just have a problem with dummies who think their smart.
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September 6th, 2012 at 3:52 pm 64
@VMD:
The growth in realtors is even more striking when you consider that the majority of population growth in the Lower Mainland has been outside the REBGV’s area, i.e. in that of the Fraser Valley RE board (which includes Surrey).
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September 6th, 2012 at 3:59 pm 65
@patriotz: If the mortgage debt isn’t discharged in a bankruptcy, and assuming you are still of working age and have a family to provide for, don’t you need to keep working? If you do keep working, can’t the bank just garnish your wage automatically when the paycheque gets deposited, even if the deposit is to a different bank or credit union? That would make your life very hard if not impossible. I don’t know how the wage garnishment process works but that would could be a killer for future economic growth as it would drain off a huge chunk of available capital.
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September 6th, 2012 at 4:13 pm 66
That’s why “Money Mart” is in business.
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September 6th, 2012 at 4:24 pm 67
@Mick Murphy:
Great comment! I agree with the comment about credit unions. That has been my experience as well: people have been given massive mortgages by credit unions in BC. We shall see how this ends up.
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September 6th, 2012 at 4:27 pm 68
@space889: ” I don’t know how the wage garnishment process works … ”
Clearly! But the depth of you economic analysis is impressive.
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September 6th, 2012 at 4:54 pm 69
@ Mick Murphy
Good news….too many barista posers out there running up the price of shelter for many others. Long overdue for a paycheque to actually matter.
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September 6th, 2012 at 4:57 pm 70
@B Panther: thats vancouver in general. A place that lacks real brains and talent, that is full of sanctimonious bull shitters who are so full of it they wouldnt see the truth if it was right in front of them. You know, kind of like a lot of the people who post on this blog.
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September 6th, 2012 at 5:03 pm 71
@B Panther: I think B Panther is very smart in a way that at least 8 bears fail to recognize.
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September 6th, 2012 at 5:12 pm 72
As for the person that asked about fewer sales but more homes.
The real estate “market” is only a fraction of the total housing. It doesn’t matter that there are more dwellings today than there was a decade ago. As dwellings that are not listed for sale have no affect on market value at all. The same as those who are only thinking of buying and not actively seeking a home, they have no affect on market value either.
The real estate market in relation to total housing is very small. Under 5 percent of the total housing stock. Yet this tiny fraction of homes, sets the amount of equity that can be taken out of the remaining stock of homes.
Kinda silly – when you really think about it.
Because if 10 or 20 percent of the total stock of homes in Vancouver were put up for sale tomorrow – just think what would happen to prices. It would be a catastrophe to the point that you couldn’t give a condo or house away; and at the same time the rental market would be destroyed.
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September 6th, 2012 at 5:49 pm 73
@kansai92:
Don’t forget population increases over this time period.
More houses to sell + More people to buy should = Higher Average sales, NOT lower
But don’t forget… “Its different here”
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September 6th, 2012 at 5:54 pm 74
anecdote:
“Yesterday a Chinese businessman mentioned that he and a group of friends/investors had invested $90M CAD flipping Vancouver multi-million dollar homes; right now they’re hopelessly stuck”
- illiquidity is a bitch.
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September 6th, 2012 at 6:24 pm 75
@VMD:
No more stuck than the monkey who won’t let go of the banana in the bottle.
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September 6th, 2012 at 6:33 pm 76
@pricedoutfornow: This is such a 180 degree difference to the U.S. where very few (but not zero) credit unions got into the loan pusher business. Anyone know off hand if there are any major structural/organizational differences between credit unions U.S. vs. Canada?
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September 6th, 2012 at 6:38 pm 77
@/dev/null: Oh man, they recalculated them all twice, by my reckoning. If you check the archives on their site of revised releases vs the revised HPI reports (not the stats package) last time I checked even they didn’t match each other. As if they had re-revised one and not the other.
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September 6th, 2012 at 6:40 pm 78
Anyone know off hand if there are any major structural/organizational differences between credit unions U.S. vs. Canada?
CMHC
zero risk to the members
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September 6th, 2012 at 6:48 pm 79
@AG Sage:
the new HPI sets Jan 2005 as reference point.
However there’s already obvious discrepancy between the (new)HPI price for May 2005 (earliest value on rebgv website) vs the original HPI price on the stats package.
http://s11.postimage.org/vciug06o3/HPI.jpg
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September 6th, 2012 at 7:03 pm 80
@AG Sage: Hanlon’s Razor perhaps. Either way I can’t say it’s surprising.
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September 6th, 2012 at 7:07 pm 81
Realtors must be too busy to provide numbers tonight
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September 6th, 2012 at 7:15 pm 82
@kansai92:
That was actually a really good question. Bigger cities don’t have bigger prices.
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September 6th, 2012 at 7:15 pm 83
I’m not a realtor but I will post later tonight.
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September 6th, 2012 at 7:17 pm 84
Really busy day, betting that under 100 streak is broken today
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September 6th, 2012 at 7:20 pm 85
@Conrad: Earlier in the day I thought the same as we had a fairly quick start in the morning postings- – but – - without stealing PaulB’s thunder, you are wrong . . we did not crack 100 today.
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September 6th, 2012 at 7:34 pm 86
@VMD: of course there is a discrepancy. It’s a different benchmark. What is the conspiracy here? They changed the benchmark. Why is that hard to understand? It wasn’t just resetting the index, they changed the whole methodology. they published a 40 page paper to explain it. The benchmark price should not be the same with a different model.
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September 6th, 2012 at 7:37 pm 87
@ZRH2YVR:
hmm, chipman posted 88 sales for tuesday but 149 sales yesterday (while our # was 69), might mean late entries. So might want to take that into consideration for those keeping record..
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September 6th, 2012 at 8:19 pm 88
@VMD:
I think chipman goofed up. He is showing 882 listings between both fv and gv, which seems to be astronomically high. either which way I am a happy person as sell/list is real low in both the cases
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September 6th, 2012 at 8:32 pm 89
@boogeybear: “The real estate “market” is only a fraction of the total housing. It doesn’t matter that there are more dwellings today than there was a decade ago. The real estate market in relation to total housing is very small. Under 5 percent of the total housing stock.”
If the real estate market is, say, 5% of the total number of houses, and the total number of houses increases by 10% then the real estate market also increases by 10%.
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September 6th, 2012 at 8:47 pm 90
Don’t matter Minions, the real estate slow down is now talk of the town, what’s to turn the tide?
McLovin dropping his prices?
I think not.
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September 6th, 2012 at 8:57 pm 91
Numbers anyone? I need my fix dammit!
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September 6th, 2012 at 8:59 pm 92
Drat, I can’t find the original quote from circa 2006 California, but my Rule # 10 of bubbles popping is when someone says: “But what about the value of all the houses that *aren’t* for sale?!?”
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September 6th, 2012 at 9:11 pm 93
@VHB:
It’s understandable that any benchmark will have its inaccuracies in attempting to capture the ‘real’ trend. In days like now, when the sample size (especially individual neighborhood stats) continues to shrink, even the good ol’ median values become less reliable. We can only hope REBGV’s intricate HPI formula can more accurately (than say, median price) portray the price movement. I don’t tend to believe in wilful conspiracies by the real estate boards to manipulate HPI prices, but I still have some reservation on their reliability/accuracy – especially when the media base their stories so heavily on them.
It’s probably just an isolated case, but in the most recent stats pkg, Whistler apartments still show 3-year price change as +80.2%,and 5-year price change as +72.8%. Median price (Jan-Aug) was $229,000 this year, -17% vs 2009($276,150) and -29% vs 2007($320,500).
Granted Whistler apartment sample size is low (108 sales this year, 47 in 2009, 104 in 2007); however, when the new HPI rule shows +72.8% while median price shows -29%, it may be reasonable to question the HPI’s reliability in low-sample-size environment – unless this was just a careless typo that’s gone uncorrected since Feb 2012 (when the new HPI was introduced), or Whistler did indeed gain 80% since 2009!
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September 6th, 2012 at 9:38 pm 94
New Listings 290
Price Changes 124
Sold Listings 80
TI:18378
http://www.paulboenisch.com
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September 6th, 2012 at 9:52 pm 95
Can we hold onto that 12 for the MoI? Stay tuned!
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September 6th, 2012 at 9:56 pm 96
19000 by the 20th, 20000 not until October, slow melt unfolding (at the moment).
McLovin, have you dropped your prices yet?
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September 6th, 2012 at 9:57 pm 97
Romeo, free for you, $40 for the trolls!
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September 6th, 2012 at 9:58 pm 98
Thanks but no thanks. I’d rather satisfy myself.
I’m excited, the great crash is underway.
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September 6th, 2012 at 10:06 pm 99
All my posts disappear so fast. Vote this up if you like big boobs
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September 6th, 2012 at 10:12 pm 100
“Why Brokers Study Chinese”
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/09/realestate/big-deal-courting-chinese-buyers.html
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September 6th, 2012 at 10:31 pm 101
Wow 72 thumbs up for paul in 1 hour! People are paying attention.
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September 6th, 2012 at 10:31 pm 102
Updated image showing sales stats (for 2012/2011/2011)
http://i50.tinypic.com/2j5yrg4.gif
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September 6th, 2012 at 10:34 pm 103
“People are paying attention.”
More like idiots are.
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September 6th, 2012 at 10:44 pm 104
@patriotz:
“In general terms, making bankruptcy harder to get does not make borrowers more cautious – especially with respect to mortgage lending – because they never think they’re going to be unable to repay, i.e. they don’t rationally evaluate possible outcomes.”
Yes, that is precisely what I said. But then, if I said that real estate in Vancouver is overpriced, I have a feeling you would find a way to disagree with that too.
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September 6th, 2012 at 10:45 pm 105
Sellers (and McLovin) suck ass!
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September 6th, 2012 at 10:45 pm 106
So remind me why are people expecting a sales surge in September? It only happened once in the past 14 years, where sales were 16% higher than August. Most of the time sales were about the same.
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September 6th, 2012 at 11:08 pm 107
jesse – everyone knows you are wrong!
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September 6th, 2012 at 11:14 pm 108
Ban Van.
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September 6th, 2012 at 11:40 pm 109
Where am I… Is this real life..? ok now… I have two fingers..no..four fingers… I can’t see anything… arRHHH!! I feel funny… had I been trolling this forum?
last thing I remembered? why I was having a cool-aid drink that the awfully nice realtor made for me.. Wait a minute…
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September 6th, 2012 at 11:54 pm 110
sorry jesse, I always knew you were right. It’s just that I have this inferiority complex condition.. I get this uncontrollable urge to cynically, forcefully disagree with all the facts.. so that people will stop and pay attention to me… for once…
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September 7th, 2012 at 2:45 am 111
@N:
What I was disagreeing with was the part I quoted, that is:
“Another thing that making a load non-discharagble does is shift the burden of evaluation from the lender to the borrower.”
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September 7th, 2012 at 5:24 am 112
30 jesse Says: “It’s not cherry-picking, it’s following all areas simultaneously and consistently….”
The overall market is also a consistent measure.
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