Second worst August since 1998

The REBGV has released their Vancouver stats package for August 2012 and it’s a bit of a downer for the true believer.

Sales down, prices down, lots of use of the term ‘buyers market’.

In fact the home sales plunge just made last month the second worst August since 1998.

The group’s composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is $609,500 which is down 0.5% from a year ago and 1.1% from July.

Supply seems to be slowing with new listings for detached, attached and apartment properties 4,044 in August for a 13.7% decline from a year ago. New listings were down 15.8% from July.

At 17,567, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS was up 13.8% from a year ago but down 2.8% from last month.

Courtesy of Good Format, here’s the month drops and what that number looks like annualized:

            MLS® Home Price Index  

           July 2012     Aug 2012   Chg(%)  Annualized(%)
Detached     950,200     942,100     0.86       10.32
Attached     468,700     462,300     1.38       16.61
Apartment    374,300     370,100     1.13       13.61

Scubasteve shares some of the worst hit areas for prices:

DETACHED
-3.7% = Richmond
-3.7% = Vancouver West
-1.3% = Maple Ridge

CONDOS
-8.0% = Burnaby South
-7.9% = Port Coquitlam
-6.4% = Burnaby East

TOWNHOUSE
-8.8% = Tsawwassen
-8.3% = Burnaby North
-4.5% = Maple Ridge

And the worst areas for sales:

1) West Vancouver (-65.6%)
Aug/12 = 34 sales
Aug/11 = 96 sales

2) Burnaby (-47.5%)
Aug/12 = 174 sales
Aug/11 = 331 sales

3) Coquitlam (-41.6%)
Aug/12 = 122 sales
Aug/11 = 209 sales

4) Richmond (-31.2%)
Aug/12 = 179 sales
Aug/11 = 260 sales

5) Vancouver West (-31.0%)
Aug/12 = 362 sales
Aug/11 = 524 sales

6) Vancouver East (-29.6%)
Aug/12 = 169 sales
Aug/11 = 240 sales

7) North Vancouver (-29.0%)
Aug/12 = 113 sales
Aug/11 = 159 sales

Read his full comment here.

If we don’t see a flood of listings in the Fall then that will help to let some of the downward pressure off the market, but there isn’t much looking up in the outlook.  We’re now a couple of months into the new mortgage rules that have taken out some first time buyers and put pressure on $1 million houses.

With housing affordability in Vancouver at a record low it’s only going to get trickier to find a buyer unless we get a new flood of credit or higher paying jobs.

 

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Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

@jesse: “Yes I think people underestimate OSFI’s resolve to curtail credit growth and properly implement Canada’s version of Basel II”

yes. absolutely. i for one trust the judgement of bears on this blog. their track record speaks for its self.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

@Anonymous: I agree. Average sheeple aren’t going to “disappear” and make false identities.

But the possibility of making CMHC mortgages non-dischargable is at least considering. They did it with student loans. So why not? I suppose it can’t be done retroactively.

It is going to be interesting to see what the bubble collapse does to a lot of Vancouverites. I mean, our bubble has grown to exceptional proportions and has somehow stayed inflated for what seems like an unusually long time.

Family fortunes will be lost, once proud people will be forced to do menial jobs, McMansions will become rooming houses, those who can will get the hell out of Dodge…the mind boggles at the impacts. I have to remember that some of it will be too tragic to find amusing.

N
Guest
N

@Patiently Waiting:

If they did make them non-dischargable that would, of course, be a prod in the inflationary direction, just as it has been with student loans, because the risk of default goes down, making lenders more likely to issue loans. Another thing that making a load non-discharagble does is shift the burden of evaluation from the lender to the borrower. That’s a particular problem with mortgages, as we have seen that the average person is entirely lacking in the ability to evaluate investments in real estate.

registered
Member
registered

@24 jesse: “That’s something I would highlight more strongly.”

From an academic point of view, why? What’s to be gained? That some areas are better than others at different times is a statistical certainty. It doesn’t warrant cherry picking locations to soften the news. Even the Sun, among local media the greatest booster of real estate, bluntly admits ‘Vancouver home sales plunge, posting second-worst August since 1998’.
At some point always looking to the bright side becomes a distortion in itself, no matter how generously it’s positioned.

jesse
Member

@fixie guy: ” It doesn’t warrant cherry picking locations to soften the news”

It’s not cherry-picking, it’s following all areas simultaneously and consistently. It’s both the severity and length of weakness that’s important.

Not to take away from what’s being described here, my interest is only on getting the full picture. And that Burnaby and Coquitlam and others are now on the list is a BFD IMO.

AfroFrancophone
Guest
AfroFrancophone

Are you guys aware of this site: http://re.olvius.com/home

It tracks daily prices/new listings in the Lower Mainland. Pretty slick.

Dunno who’s behind it tho…

manna from heaven
Guest
manna from heaven

Robert Shiller on BNN discussing Canada’s housing market, click on link below.

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip754980

If you are a bull and this doesn’t make you want to vomit in fear or rage there is something very, very wrong with you.

UnagiDon
Guest
UnagiDon

In other news, BC youth can join a new job-training program for the highly-skilled positions that the BC economy will need over the coming decades.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/09/06/bc-pole-dancing.html

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@AfroFrancophone: Person behind it is Oleksandr Lishchuk – a software developer living in New West.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@UnagiDon: your comment is just as sour as it can get. is life sucked for you?

VMD
Member

@AfroFrancophone:
Interesting site. The “all properties added today” section is quite helpful. So is the price change listing.

Good to see sites like that and vancouverpricedrop springing up.
we can only hope one day MLS will become public.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Patiently Waiting: you just want the market collape to see your rich sister’s fortune destroyed. still jealousy of her, arent you!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Anonymous: UnagiDon and ScubaSteve are the most cynical, miserable, bitter people I know. (Not that I really know them, thank God.)

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@VMD: We now also have the confirmation that 90%+ of price changes are actually decreases…

There are a few messed up ones:

– Maple Ridge: 26415 121ST AV from (04-Jul-12) $1,149,000.00 to (06-Sep-12) $1,188,888.00 [yeah, I’m sure all those 8’s will help]

– New Westminster: #1600 328 CLARKSON ST from (04-Jul-12) $998,800.00 to (06-Sep-12) $1,000,000.00 [this guy probably didn’t get the memo that properties above $1million can no longer qualify for CMHC]

– Richmond: #125 8511 ACKROYD RD from (03-Jul-12) $182,000.00 to (06-Sep-12) $243,000.00 +33% [no more bidding war in Richmond, eh?]

– Vancouver: 441 E 48TH AV from (04-Jul-12) $998,000.00 to (11-Jul-12) $968,000.00 to (06-Sep-12) $1,048,000.00 [I can’t decide which price I want so let’s put it just above $1 million… #fail]

Very entertaining indeed…

Makaya
Member
Makaya

Jobs and affordable housing draw young people, families away from B.C

Vancouver and British Columbia are often cited as being among the best places in the world to live.

But lately it appears a growing number of British Columbians aren’t buying it.

Recent numbers from BC Stats reveal that nearly 2,600 people left B.C. and moved to other provinces in the first quarter of 2012 – up from 1,900 just one year earlier. (…)

Yep, count me in. I’ve just completed the relocation of my family from Wetcouver to Winterpeg. I’ll be back in 5 years, once RE prices will have come down to earth 🙂

VMD
Member

Money laundering: real estate broker jailed a year in senior’s defrauding
-bad boy.
September 05, 2012
A willfully blind real estate broker who laundered a $700,000 cheque fraudulently obtained from a mentally incompetent senior, leaving the man “almost destitute,” has been sentenced to a year in jail.

Peter Chiu, 72, used his position as a real estate broker and the CIBC bank account of his brokerage, Golden Land Realty, in 2010 to deposit a $700,000 cheque handed to him by a business acquaintance, Kevin Tsui, and later defray the money to various people and businesses.

In return, Chiu received an $11,500 “administrative fee.”

The Real Estate Council of Ontario has since revoked his licence.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Makaya: Did you pay your $200 strata fine before you left? Or did you stiff your landlord, as suggested by patriotz? (or was it jesse?)

/dev/null
Member
/dev/null

@Makaya: Can I ask what field you’re in (that enables you to move to Winnipeg for 5 years and then back)? There isn’t a lot of openings in what I do – maybe 100 positions in all of Canada – so mobility isn’t easy. (Versus the 11,000 realtors in BC alone).

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@Anonymous: ” Did you pay your $200 strata fine before you left? Or did you stiff your landlord, as suggested by patriotz? (or was it jesse?)”

The $200 fee was waived thankfully. It turns out that the concierge at the origin of the trouble is a recognized asshole. I sent a letter to the strata board and talk to the property management company and after hearing my side of the story, decided to waive the fee. The fact that I’ve been a very good tenant and left the property in better shape than when I moved in probably helped as well…

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@/dev/null: I’m in consulting. My company has offices across Canada and I can ask to be transferred to where I want to live. Work location is not that important in our business as we travel a lot. My main client for the foreseeable future is in Winnipeg, hence my relocation.

patriotz
Member

@Anonymous:
“Or did you stiff your landlord, as suggested by patriotz? ”

What I said is that the strata did not follow the legally required process so there was no fine to pay by anyone.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

@VMD: Senior on senior fraud. I wonder if that’s the new trend. They are all so adorable with their sweet, wrinkly faces until…

patriotz
Member
@N: “Another thing that making a load non-discharagble does is shift the burden of evaluation from the lender to the borrower.” Not when a 3rd party is guaranteeing that the lender is going to get his money back. In that case the lender is really only concerned about meeting the guarantor’s criteria. Even when there isn’t a guarantee you can’t get blood from a stone and getting rid of bankruptcy isn’t going to reduce the lenders’ risk, and thus burden of evaluation, meaningfully. In general terms, making bankruptcy harder to get does not make borrowers more cautious – especially with respect to mortgage lending – because they never think they’re going to be unable to repay, i.e. they don’t rationally evaluate possible outcomes. Ireland has among the toughest bankruptcy criteria in the EU – many Irish are moving to the… Read more »
Deliverator
Member
Deliverator
Saw this on Garth Turner’s Blog: Vancouver’s real estate board is the home of the original Frankenumber, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price, blatantly intended to smooth out peaks and valleys, giving the impression of an eternally stable market. So while the average detached SFH has lost $200,000 in value in recent months, the Frankenumber stays serene. In August, for example, “the decline of 0.5% compared to this time last year and a decline of 1.1% compared to last month.” Could this be because the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver secretly did an organ transplant when nobody was watching? Well, nobody except for the poster called Canadian Watchdog. “REBGV revised last year’s benchmark prices lower again. I had all their website data copied from earlier this year and sure enough, when I checked today’s detached home… Read more »
patriotz
Member

@Deliverator:
“If true, does this not constitute fraud?”

It’s not fraud because they’re not selling anyone the index, rather providing it for free. They have to responsibility to anyone to be accurate.