Will this be a better week for sellers?

Good monday to you all!

As we head into another week it will be interesting to see if the current dismal sales trend holds.

VHB puts it into perspective:

If we get another week like last week, we will be on pace for sub-2008 September sales. Pause and think about that. In the middle of the biggest financial crisis in 75 years, more houses were sold than now. Wow.

Wow indeed.

So let’s look short term – what do you think?  Will this week reverse the trend that kicked off the month or are we going to see more of the same?

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[…] need to have a different strategy to extract the most value out of each part of the cycle.” – Rocker Guy at VCI 10 Sep 2012 10:14am Share: This entry was posted in 09. Delaying Buying and tagged Anecdotes, British Columbia, […]

Proud and extremely rich Chinese home owners
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Proud and extremely rich Chinese home owners

4812 Dumfries,a new house in a shitty area sold for 1.2 million to a middle class Chinese just landed in Vancouver;who said Vancouver Real Estate is in a retreating mode.Only those bipolar nutheads, Vancouver bears?When they will face the reality man?

Beuller
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Beuller

@Lewis: This story is complete BS. a) there hasn’t been a house sold for $450K in New West since prior to 2007 and b) New West is a shit hole. Anywhere you can see Surrey from is a shit hole.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

@patriotz: “Where’s Wal Do? ”

28th and Comosun.

patriotz
Member

@Anonymous:
“Could be some Iranians but my guess is mostly affluent people from other Arab countries.”

From Arab countries, not “other Arab countries”. Iranians are an Aryan people, indeed the two names are from the same root.

Mort
Guest
Mort

@Vancouver: Hahahaha! Awesome! 1/3 sales to list is ‘huge’ these days, love it! We just broke 18 straight days of sub 100 sales by 16.

A tiny percentage of used house salespeople shall dine well tonight, Party on bulls!

Vancouver
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Vancouver

Huge sales day, trend is broken, serious upside ahead!

Anonymous
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Anonymous

@Patiently Waiting: “Correct. Regardless, the only country on the Persian Gulf that has any kind of significant immigration to Canada — more than just rich Princes owning Coal Harbour condos – is Iran.”

CTV reporting tonight the scam is done to gain access to a Canadian Passport for ease of travel so they don’t need a visa. It is affluent Arabs who are doing it. Could be some Iranians but my guess is mostly affluent people from other Arab countries.

Vancouver
Guest
Vancouver

wow huge sales day..

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

@Bag it and tag it: Correct. Regardless, the only country on the Persian Gulf that has any kind of significant immigration to Canada — more than just rich Princes owning Coal Harbour condos – is Iran. It really is the only reasonable conclusion considering that country is also the same country that just got spurned by our Conservative government.

So therefore, the use of “Persian Gulf states” in the Torstar article was really just code for “Iran”.

As for my point about North Shore listings? I was only kidding, hence the emoticon. Truth be told, I feel quite bad for many local Persians who are going to have their lives become more complicated in the near future, through no fault of their own.

Bag it and tag it
Guest
Bag it and tag it

@frank: You did say ‘Persian Gulf State’, not ‘Gulf State’. You’re thinking of ‘Arab States of the Persian Gulf’…but that’s not what was stated.

frank
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frank

@Muff Diver Mike:

Iran is on the Persian gulf but the term ‘Gulf State’ applies to the Arab states that have an association with each other. Economic, political and Militarily. Anyway I won’t beat this to death but it does not seem to have had much effect on listings…yet.

Vote Down The Facts
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Vote Down The Facts

@Anonymous: “So what happens when Greece leaves the EU?”

Nobody is talking about them leaving the EU (the geopolitical entity), only the Euro (the currency).

Muff Diver Mike
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Muff Diver Mike

@HAM Solo:

And remember the old adage… Gotta have sales for price declines 🙂

Muff Diver Mike
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Muff Diver Mike

@frank

Sorry, but technically Iran is a Person Gulf state as it borders the entire eastern coast of the Persian Gulf.

HAM Solo
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HAM Solo

A little uptick in sales, but a massive dump of new listings. This reminds me of the proverbial dead-cat bounce of a declining stock, when every piece of limited good news draws out massive supply.

Let’s face it, for every foolhardy construction worker new hire with a deathwish who is buying a house there are four or five meatloaf-luvvin boomers pounding in the “for sale signs.” This is like the opposite of today’s stock market where bad news is QE-related good news. Here, every uptick in the local economy is a reminder to the Simon & Garfunkel types to list their place … or be locked-in forever.

Patsan
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Patsan

@patriotz:

Patriotz,
I disagree with the point that requirement for 55+ to learn English/French would have little impact. I believe that the impact will be huge and every such case would give a fantastic example to the children and to virtually every immigrant on how people should assimilate into Canadian society.

Chabar, you are right, she is from Europe.

frank
Guest
frank

@Patiently Waiting:

Patiently. Iran is not a ‘Persian Gulf state’. These are Qatar, Dubai, Saudi etc. Check on Google if you want.

I actually had a look at the new West Van listings to see who the owners were. There were 20 listings. 7 had Chinese/FarEast names. One was East Indian and two were Eastern European and 10 were anglo-saxon. I didn’t see any Gulf names.

ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve

Updated daily sales chart

http://i48.tinypic.com/ndx34w.gif

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@RFM: “So, what do you think? Are the MLS condo numbers understated?”

For new condos and even houses most do not hit the MLS. Some new condo projects don’t list any of the units on the MLS. So yes there is inventory over above the MLS numbers. For areas where the FSBO has taken off like Alberta there would be even more hidden inventory.

VHB
Member
VHB
Sep-2012	
Total days	19
Days elapsed so far	5
Weekends / holidays	5
Days missing	0
Days remaining	14
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	81
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	326
SALES	
Sales so far	407
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1140
Projected month end total	1547
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	1631
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	4567
Projected month end total	6198
Sell-list so far	25.0%
Projected month-end sell-list	25.0%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of September 10, 2012	18612
Current MoI at this sales pace	12.03

Notes:
– still behind the pace for sales from 2008: 1585.
– Will we hit 19K by end of the week???
– The streak of <100 sales has ended. We hit **18**! My daily data (from PaulB) only go back to March 2010, but we've never done anything close to 18 since March 2010. (I suspect we might have had something like 18 days in Jan/Feb/Mar 2010 owing to the Olympics. But I don't know.)

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@patriotz: “EU members have to tax citizens of other EU countries at the same rates as the locals.”

So what happens when Greece leaves the EU?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Streak of 18 straight days of under 100 sales has been broken.

BULLISH!

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@HFHC:
Only 25 houses sold in the entire Fraser valley today?

paulb
Member

New Listings 355
Price Changes 151
Sold Listings 116
TI:18612

http://www.paulboenisch.com