Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again.. Free-for-all time!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the first weekend of October 2012.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Everything about Canadas bubble
Sales plunge: normal or bursting bubble?
Industry tries to paint positive picture
They always say the same thing
Buy one get one free
A sad day for data
High end homes take a hit
A guarantee against price drops?
Gen Y renting?
Not in My Back Yard 

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Ray
Member
Ray

Did anyone else notice that the Yellow Helicopter people from last March in this clip (1:26):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OtluM512Nk

Are back in town last Wednesday (2:09):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VO0rs-b16o

Can’t they find new clips to use? Are they trying to torture us?

100% = 2% Inflation For 35 Years!
Guest
100% = 2% Inflation For 35 Years!

@Ray: GlobalTV Rationalizing Clip

Forget the helicopter. The rationalization of long term inflation indexed periods in Van RE prices is particularly disturbing. Does the realtor interviewed actually believe inflation might actually catch up to present prices? 35 years of flat prices is what he believes? Or maybe he believes inflation will suddenly spike wildly and stay high without causing changes in interest rates? GlobalTV needs to hire some better reporters.

Regarding the price protection insurance in the Free For All topics, the protection is limited to 10% and only for 12 months. Plus, the seller pays. This one is a more profitable scam than retail extended warranty on products with no moving parts!

jesse
Member

Hoffpo BC: Vancouver Housing Bubble Doesn’t Scare Chinese Investors http://t.co/8nWTBMvt
Who said anything about a ‘bubble’? Giving the New Homes section of the Sun a run for its money.

patriotz
Member

66% of Canadians don’t set budgets, BMO poll finds

A poll of Canadian spending habits finds that only one-third of those surveyed actually set budgets, and even fewer review their purchases on a monthly basis.

The Bank of Montreal report suggests just 34 per cent set budgets for expenses such as housing costs, food and insurance.

Since 70% of households are homeowners, 66% of all households necessarily includes half of homeowners and likely more, since there are some renters who do set budgets.

PCinWA
Member
PCinWA
The one aspect about the run-up in Vancouver home prices over the past several years that has irritated and frustrated me the most is the general one-sidedness that the financial journalism has demonstrated. I find it unconscionable that “experts” are continuously quoted in newspaper articles opining about the level and sustainability of Vancouver home prices, when 99% of the time, these “experts” have seriously vested interests in real estate transaction activity and prices continuing to be inflated. It reminds me a lot of the state of financial journalism as it pertained to the stock market in 1999 and 2000. Every Tom, Dick and Harry from the investment management community (who primarily got paid through percentages of assets under management) were showing up on CNBC, etc., talking about how the growth of the internet, B2B business models and telecommunications made paying… Read more »
PCinWA
Member
PCinWA

On an unrelated note, the Canadian September jobs report just came out, and Canada added 5x as many jobs in the month as was expected:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-05/canada-september-job-growth-is-five-times-faster-than-forecast.html

I wonder what does this do to expected interest rates (and, by extension, mortgage rates) twelve months out? I would hate to be sitting on $1 mm of Vancouver mortgage debt right about now…

patriotz
Member

@PCinWA:
“I wonder what does this do to expected interest rates (and, by extension, mortgage rates) twelve months out? ”

I don’t see any drop in the BoC rate as long as the CAD is above par.

However you should also ask whether mortgage rates will necessarily be tied to administered rates going forward. If prices continue falling the banks are going to get tougher with qualifications which means less discounting and higher rates de facto. Mortgage insurance covers the outstanding balance but not other costs which lenders incur upon default.

patriotz
Member

@patriotz:
“I don’t see any drop in the BoC rate as long as the CAD is above par. ”

Sorry, I meant INCREASE, not drop.

YLTNboomerang
Member

Hey, I just took the awesomest screen capture from Facebook, can anyone offer guidance of a site I can upload the jpg to for sharing here?

X
Guest
X

@YLTNboomerang: Can you post it over at http://Vancouverpeak.com? If your user account here has been registered for more than a year the same login should work there.

N
Guest
N

@PCinWA:

I agree. It’s also good to remember that journalists write salable stories for a living (with newspaper editors being the used story salesmen) and the market for realistic evaluation of Canadian RE has been weak for many years.

crashcow
Member

repost from last night:
—-

Rear-view mirror analysis, Part II. This time, it’s our favorite clown, Scam Good:

“Chinese families are exploring foreign real estate now more than ever.” – Feb 2011 (BNN)

“Buyers from Mainland China are a driving force in our real estate market. The staggering truth is we’ve seen just the tip of the iceberg” – Apr 2011 (Van Sun)

“We are really at the very start of a big wave of demand coming mostly from the uber-rich in China” – Jun 2011 (Global TV)

“fewer offshore investors are looking to get into the market compared to a year ago. The shine has gone off Canada” – Oct 3, 2012 (Van Sun)

Painted turtle
Guest
Painted turtle

@ray

the best part of the clip is the presenter saying that he has an interest in the market.

everytime I hear a pumper, I wonder if s/he has a property to sell, and will pump until s/he gets out.

gordholio
Member

#1, Ray; I hadn’t seen that new GlowBull piece.

It’s nothing short of filthy that even in a spot supposedly discussing the extreme softening of the RE market, GlowBull finds just one interviewee – Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA “Economist.”

And what does he spew? Sales will drop 7% this year, but recover 7% next year. Essentially a steaming load of fabricated nothingness designed to disguise the potential enormity of the unfolding crash from the gullible. GlowBull knows it, this Ogmundson liar knows it, and anyone who isn’t an ostrich now knows it.

Sadly, there are still a few ostriches around, heads buried deep in the sand of denial.

Good god, how do these conspiring slimebags sleep at night?

Aleksey
Guest
Aleksey
YLTNboomerang
Member

OK, logged onto Facebook this morning (was really bored, I hate FB) and saw this from a realtor friend:

Facebook post screenshot to RE article

Here is a link to the article in question:

Another seller’s market bites the dust

Apparently Montreal is now toast too and it is F’s fault.

My buddy the realtor is a renter bear himself. It’s pretty funny as his public persona is standard realtor “it’s all good” but his true opinion of the market is pretty close to those here on the board. His FB realtor related posts are great trolls for other realtors to chime in with classic quotes.

Turkey
Guest
Turkey

@YLTNboomerang:

Apparently Montreal is now toast too and it is F’s fault.

I just got back from three weeks in Montreal. Two of my contacts there (one colleague, one client’s friend) both bought houses in the past few weeks. I groaned inwardly, buttoned my lip, and made a mental “top” call. It’s amazing how smart people can have such mammoth blind spots.

B.R.A.Z.E.N
Guest
B.R.A.Z.E.N

@Turkey: ,maybe your friends aren’t smaert. birds of a feather.

FlipFlop
Guest
FlipFlop

Ayone have the time or energy to model out GVRD listings/sales after a couple of US markets?

It would be interesting to see if we proportionately follow how some of the markets down south played out. Hoping for record low monthly sales and record high monthly listings is going to get boring once it startes happening again, and again, and again.

FF

Surrey on the Rise
Guest
Surrey on the Rise

While I have kept track of Vancouver, I have not kept track of South Surrey. It continues to see massive development – both commercial and residential, and the population continually goes up.

I was out kicking tires in South Surrey, talking about the collapse in Vancouver, and the car sales guys all said their houses keep going up. Even my relatives in South Surrey (Rosedale Heights, Morgan Creek) keep telling me prices are going up.

Could it be that Surrey has avoided the rise and listings and drop in prices? Any anecdotes?

crashcow
Member

@gordholio

re: contacting Cam

Good idea. If you have his contact, let’s do it.

/dev/null
Member
/dev/null

@N:

Seems an appropriate time to re-post one of my favorite quotes:

Reporters are faced with the daily choice of painstakingly researching stories or writing whatever people tell them. Both approaches pay the same.

-SCOTT ADAMS

Makaya
Member
Makaya

@YLTNboomerang: Another seller’s market is biting the dust…

From the Winnipeg Free press: Slowdown in city’s resale-homes market is gaining momentum

The Winnipeg Realtors Association (WRA) said today that Multiple Listing Service sales were down 14 per cent from a year earlier — 1,040 units versus 1,214.
It was the third consecutive month of weakening sales activity, after declines of four per cent in August and two per cent in July.

RFM
Guest
RFM
Likewise, Regina sales have dipped, but prices rose considerably. This from the Association of Regina Realtors: Residential sales through the Regina and area MLS® System in September were down from the same month in 2011 and were the lowest since January 2012, said the Association of Regina REALTORS® Inc. There were 265 sales reported during the month in all geographic areas, down 28% from 370 recorded in 2011. This is the lowest level of sales and the first time that it has not exceeded the 300 mark since January, when 249 sales were reported. It compares to the five-year average of 318 and ten-year average of 272 sales. There were 214 sales reported in the city, a decrease of 32% over 2011 when 315 properties sold. The average sales price for all areas was $298,501, an increase of 9% over… Read more »
VHB
Member
VHB

Well, the jobs report gave the 5-yr a little boost today. Still in the same band it has been in for most of the last twelve months so nothing too exciting. But one small step in the right direction…

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GCAN5YR:IND

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