Vancouver Condo Info

168 Responses to “Friday Free-for-all!”

Meh Says:
October 11th, 2012 at 11:33 pm 1

How real estate works in China

“I’m a law-abiding citizen who wants to solve problems according to the law, but I find I am always the loser,” Liu said. “Now the rules and laws keep me going round a maze. But I’ll never give up. I believe I can find justice somewhere.”

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2012/10/11/china-evictions/1626821/

Hot debate. What do you think? 17  1

bby Says:
October 11th, 2012 at 11:47 pm 2

Had an appoint in Point Grey today, and was surprised by the amount empty commercial space along 10th avenue. For Lease and For Rent signs on quite a few places that have been around for aeons, or at least decades. It is, or was?, a wonderful neighborhood with a quiet upper working class elegance. Still seems nice, but the empty storefronts indicate that businesses must be struggling. Is the demographic shift to hot foreign money (HFM) and luxury speculation creating an impossible business environment? As the wheels fall of the RE party bus, will Point Grey become a desirable ghost town borough of Vancouver? Could the inevitable crash drive out the HFM and restore a locally sustainable demographic once again?

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 69  1

Popgoesthebubble1 Says:
October 11th, 2012 at 11:51 pm 3

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

Where’s the links?

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 2  12

Ray Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 12:37 am 4

Developers are quietly putting condo projects ‘on the shelf’

While the fundamentals of Toronto’s condo market — high immigration, low interest rates, pro-intensification policies — remain strong, “a lot of people are waiting to see what happens later this year,” Vihant said.

… and just when you think he might have been misquoted he says as the closing line for the article:

“There are ways to intensify and (put) infill family housing into neighbourhoods where there are schools, transit, parks, community centres and daycares.”

Things are getting intense, people.

http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/realestate/article/1266824–developers-are-quietly-putting-condo-projects-on-the-shelf

Hot debate. What do you think? 13  1

Simpatico Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 12:42 am 5

Have Canadian authorities over-reacted by imposing tougher rules on the securitization of mortgages, slashing the mortgage-amortization maximum, and ensuring that the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada is “micromanaging” how the banks finance real estate?

Now that the mortgage sales/retail arm of Mr. Big Bank is fat and the party seems to be winding down, would Mr. Bank prefer that Harper’s gang start pushing folks back into investments so Mr. Bank can have two fat arms?

Don’t the feds and Mr. Big Bank give a rat’s ass what becomes of Bubblicious Vancouver, where the economy in mostly on FIRE (finance, investment, real estate)?

That’s a point made in this Oct. 11 article in the Georgia Straight: Toronto bankers put the squeeze on Vancouver real-estate developers

“Paul suggested that chartered banks often make fatter profits through investment banking as opposed to through retail banking, where mortgages are arranged for consumers. He added that it wouldn’t surprise him if the Conservative government is crafting public policies to move the country’s wealth away from real estate and into paper assets to please CEOs of the chartered banks, no matter how disruptive this might be to the Vancouver economy and to first-time home buyers. ‘The reality is it’s in the interests of the governing party to have a cordial relationship with the banks,’ Paul noted.”

http://www.straight.com/article-805306/vancouver/real-estate-squeeze-play

At first I thought, “naw,” Canadian authorities have UNDER-reacted, repeatedly, to keep Mr. Big Bank fat and the economy falsely humming along. But then, it dawned on me, Mr. Big Bank is not the ONE armed man, he has TWO arms. It started to make sense!

Hot debate. What do you think? 7  4

dumdumb Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 12:52 am 6

Here’s a couple of links – flawed CMHC appraisals may be driving up house prices

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/potentially-flawed-data-used-by-banks-and-lenders-bump-up-house-prices/article4603237/?cmpid=rss1

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/10/11/cmhc-database-house-prices_n_1959388.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-business

Like or Dislike: 6  3

More Data Please Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 1:04 am 7

@Meh: China Forced Evictions/Confiscation …”without appropriate legal protection and safeguards,”…

Good post! Canada now has a reciprocal investment deal ticking down (October 31,2011) to be on the books with China. This legislation may have erroneously made some invalid assumptions about the universality of cultural norms with respect to property and the lawful conduct of public officials.

In my view, this new agreement will allow well connected Chinese to import their “way of doing business” to Canada:

http://www.international.gc.ca/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/fipa-apie/china-text-chine.aspx?lang=en&view=d

The Green Party has an online petition to open Parliamentary debate on the legislation before it comes into effect: Google “stand up to the sellout to china”, to see it.

For an example of the main problem, google “nexen SEC”. The SEC is watching even if our regulators aren’t…

Hot debate. What do you think? 16  4

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 4:51 am 8

Following my post last night about the large number of TV sitcoms that revolve around renters, I thought of a few more to add to the list: Mary Tyler Moore, Rhoda, and Melrose Place. In the case of Melrose Place, the title of the show is the name of the apartment rental building everyone lives in.

Hot debate. What do you think? 17  2

patriotz Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 5:26 am 9

@Simpatico:
“Have Canadian authorities over-reacted”

Are Canadian RE prices reasonable today compared to the US? There’s your answer.

As many of us have already pointed out, that article is complete BS from people who think that RE prices twice those of US are the “new normal” and any efforts to bring them under control, however half-hearted and too little too late, are some sort of dark conspiracy.

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patriotz Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 5:41 am 10

Lenders opposed crackdown on home equity borrowing

Andy Poprawa, the chief executive officer of the Deposit Insurance Corporation of Ontario, which oversees credit unions in that province, said in an interview that he does not intend to impose the 65 per cent loan-to-value cap on home equity lines of credit, since credit unions typically operate outside of heated real estate markets, such as the Greater Toronto Area.

“Our credit unions would mostly be operating in the non-GTA markets – smaller communities, towns,” he said. “And there the real estate market is a little bit different, it’s not as overheated as the GTA, especially the condo market. So we don’t have the same level of concern that OSFI would have with respect to the large banks.”

British Columbia’s Financial Institutions Commission has asked credit unions in that province for information about how their portfolios and practices compare to OSFI’s guidelines, and is still considering whether to impose tighter conditions. But provincial regulators emphasized that credit unions tend to be cautious and to know their clients well.

Andy is quite correct that the RE markets in Ontario where most credit unions operate are not overheated.

But BC is a far different story. Is the government going to shut down the Bank of Mom and Dad’s ATM?

Hot debate. What do you think? 15  3

jesse Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 6:36 am 11

@patriotz: CUs do claim to keep larger capital buffers due to their regional concentration but it’s far from transparent what loans they cut. If the big banks curtail lending in Vancouver that could end up flooding CUs with applications. They either absorb the difference by securitizing their portfolios and ramping up staff or they impose quotas or raise spreads.

I don’t think BC CUs have the balls to make BC’s market indefinitely; logistically it would be difficult and very risky. The question, I think, is what path CUs will take in administering loan quotas.

Like or Dislike: 8  1

Harry Wang Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 7:35 am 12

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

@bby: “Is the demographic shift to hot foreign money (HFM) and luxury speculation creating an impossible business environment?”

No. The old white farts are just getting older. Don’t worry, Point Grey is still one of the whitest neighbourhoods in Vancouver.

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 7  18

YVR2ZRH Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 8:00 am 13

@VHB – thanks for the numbers posted at the end of yesterday.

Looks like we continue to be on track for worst October except for 2008 in 15 years. September 2008 just was not terrible yet and we only had 19 sales days. This month we will come in likely about 2000 sales – which is really low for what is supposed to be a higher volume selling season. Also – the sales/list of perhaps in the 30′s will be very low.

If we can keep sale/list under 50 until the end of the year – this is going to be a disaster in the Spring time . . . .

Have a great weekend everyone . . .

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 66  1

Turkey Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 8:26 am 14

This is from an earlier discussion I do not want to rip the scab off. But, the (generally excellent) Frances Bula just posted something relevant.

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs:

It absolutely is true that Vision Vancouver is bought and paid for by developers. That’s why the thin streets affordable housing plan is such a farce. Nothing Vision Vancouver will do will create affordable housing for non-drug addicts. Thin streets and ecodensity will only benefit developers and add more fuel to the bubble mania.

Quoting Frances directly:

As a result, I hear people — calling in to the NW show that I’m on, talking about this in general conversations, writing letters to various editors and blogs — who are so mixed up that it’s kind of sad to listen to. At this point, as far as I can tell, there are an awful lot of people who think:

[...]

4. The Vision council is just letting its big developer friends do what they want all over the city.

[...]

The new forms of housing proposed are actually not the kind that Vision’s “big developer friends” would have any interest in building. Six-story apartment buildings on main streets, stacked townhouses and rowhouses, little bits of housing on part of a narrowed street are the very last thing that Westbank, PCI, Wall Developments or anyone of that ilk would contemplate building. They do big stuff.

The builders who will benefit are the small operations, the kinds of people who put up one four-storey condo project after another on Kingsway, slowly creating more housing stock without anyone noticing because they’re so busy fighting the latest tower.

The whole article’s a good read: I was under some of those misconceptions, too, and the whole shebang has been poorly communicated.

Hot debate. What do you think? 7  5

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 8:57 am 15

@Turkey:

So the argument you are putting forth is that just because it’s not all about high rise towers but townhouses and low rise apartments instead that developers aren’t salivating over vision Vancouver’s affordable housing plan.

Yes, towers do get the most attention from protesters and NIMBY groups. But that doesn’t mean developers don’t benefit from smaller residential structures, especially if it means opening up new land to development that was previously unavailable–which is what the thin streets proposal will do. If it’s a choice between no development and wide streets or low rise development due to thinner streets–the developers will still love thin streets. Of course, they would even love more to put towers up on the newly claimed land from thinner streets–if only they could get away with it.

Vision Vancouver is financed by developers. This is a matter of public record and well discussed on The Mainlander blog.

If higher density resulted in more affordable housing then housing in Vancouver should be far more affordable today than it was 10 years ago, given the significant increases in density. Little Mountain is being redeveloped in the name of ecodensity and this has resulted in a LOSS of affordable housing, not an increase.

Affordable housing to me means purpose built rental housing that people on minimum wage and welfare can afford. We used to have a fair bit of it in Vancouver in the form of private sector rental housing–I grew up in it.

The private sector has demonstrated it is unable or unwilling to provide affordable rental housing in Vancouver.

To me the answer then is to turn to the public sector in the form of public rental housing. It’s going to be very hard if not impossible to create new public housing in Vancouver without partners at the provincial and federal levels, so I am not holding my breath. An alternative to public housing is rental subsidies for the private market like the Rental Assistance Program, but these are less than ideal for a variety of reasons (rent inflation, doesn’t address supply–people still living in decrepid, poor quality housing). Again, this is something for higher levels of government.

I suppose we could try to cajole the private sector into producing affordable rental housing in Vancouver. I guess the first step along these lines would be to kill the real estate bubble. This is starting to happen but for more dramatic action we need higher interest rates and restrictions on foreign ownership. We could also look at reviving Limited Dividend Corporations–which was how a great deal of private sector affordable rental housing was produced in Canada from the 1920s to 70s. Again, the city can’t do much in this area–it’s something for higher levels of government. This is why most national governments of western democracies have a national affordable housing strategy–something Canada lacks.

I’m still convinced that Vision Vancouver’s affordable housing strategy is a side show circus act that won’t produce a single unit of truly affordable rental housing available to the working poor. I’ve given up on my hometown of Vancouver and I’m not looking back.

Hot debate. What do you think? 12  11

Domocrass Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:00 am 16

@Harry Wang:
@bby: “Is the demographic shift to hot foreign money (HFM) and luxury speculation creating an impossible business environment?”

No. The old white farts are just getting older. Don’t worry, Point Grey is still one of the whitest neighbourhoods in Vancouver

The above comment was foreclosed on. Why? It is a valid point that vacant retail could be due to aging residents and perhaps also a combination of more online shopping and the effect of big box discounters. Small neighbourhood shapping strips all over the city are fading away. The Punjabi market on Main street is another example.

Hot debate. What do you think? 17  7

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:05 am 17

Oh and I forgot to mention that Vision Vancouver’s Task Force on Affordable Housing is stacked with developers, most notably Olga Ilich.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 24  3

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:16 am 18

@Domocrass

“It is a valid point that vacant retail could be due to aging residents and perhaps also a combination of more online shopping and the effect of big box discounters.”

Yes, it could be true that struggling streetscape retail in Vancouver is due to demographic change and big box stores. It could be true, but I doubt it.

-If anything, older people are less likely than younger people to shop online

-Online retail will never fully replace bricks and mortar retail–not everyone has a credit card (esp. in this maxxed out credit environment) and lots of people still like to touch and feel what they are buying

-Vancouver, esp. the west side and Point Grey, doesn’t have very many big box stores. When Walmart tried to open up in Vancouver, the City didn’t allow it. Where do Point Grey residents go if they want to shop at a Big Box Store???

-Retail in my part of Surrey seems to be thriving. Lots of new stores are opening up on King George and Surrey Central Mall is undergoing a rejuvenation. About 10 years ago, Surrey Central Mall was dying–lots of vacancies. Now the mall has a new wing and new stores seem to be opening up every month. Surrey has even more big box stores than Vancouver, but the small stores are still doing well. Surrey has a younger population than Vancouver–more likely to shop online–still small stores are doing okay in Whalley.

-Vancouver retail is dying for the same reasons the sense of community in Vancouver is dying. Real estate is too expensive. Too many houses sit empty bought by investors. Rents are too high. People are being displaced out of the city by government and by renoviction. Retail rents are too high. Property taxes are too high. The population in Metro Vancouver is shifting east towards the Fraser Valley. It costs too much to commute into Vancouver with zone fares for the bus and high parking costs and gas for car drivers. And it takes forever to get there–we have second worse traffic congestion in North America.

Like or Dislike: 0  0

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:18 am 19

It could be true that struggling streetscape retail in Vancouver is due to demographic change and big box stores. It could be true, but I doubt it.

-If anything, older people are less likely than younger people to shop online

-Online retail will never fully replace bricks and mortar retail–not everyone has a credit card (esp. in this maxxed out credit environment) and lots of people still like to touch and feel what they are buying

-Vancouver, esp. the west side and Point Grey, doesn’t have very many big box stores. When Walmart tried to open up in Vancouver, the City didn’t allow it. Where do Point Grey residents go if they want to shop at a Big Box Store???

-Retail in my part of Surrey seems to be thriving. Lots of new stores are opening up on King George and Surrey Central Mall is undergoing a rejuvenation. About 10 years ago, Surrey Central Mall was dying–lots of vacancies. Now the mall has a new wing and new stores seem to be opening up every month. Surrey has even more big box stores than Vancouver, but the small stores are still doing well. Surrey has a younger population than Vancouver–more likely to shop online–still small stores are doing okay in Whalley.

-Vancouver retail is dying for the same reasons the sense of community in Vancouver is dying. Real estate is too expensive. Too many houses sit empty bought by investors. Rents are too high. People are being displaced out of the city by government and by renoviction. Retail rents are too high. Property taxes are too high. The population in Metro Vancouver is shifting east towards the Fraser Valley. It costs too much to commute into Vancouver with zone fares for the bus and high parking costs and gas for car drivers. And it takes forever to get there–we have second worse traffic congestion in North America

Like or Dislike: 0  0

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:19 am 20

OMG I am in moderation purgatory. I wrote a really good response to Domocrass and I can’t post it. I really hate this. I think this blog should end moderation.

Hot debate. What do you think? 11  15

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:22 am 21

In response to Domocrass

I doubt that big box stores and demographic change are the main reasons for struggling retail in Point Grey and Vancouver generally.

-Older people are less likely than younger people to shop online

-Online retail will never fully replace bricks and mortar retail because not everyone has a credit card (esp. in this maxxed out credit environment) and lots of people still like to touch and feel what they are buying

-Vancouver doesn’t have very many big box stores. When Walmart tried to open up in Vancouver, the City didn’t allow it. Where do Point Grey residents go if they want to shop at a Big Box Store???

-Vancouver retail is dying for the same reasons the sense of community in Vancouver is dying. Real estate is too expensive. Too many houses sit empty bought by investors. Rents are too high. People are being displaced out of the city by government and by renoviction. Retail rents are too high. Property taxes are too high. The population in Metro Vancouver is shifting east towards the Fraser Valley. It costs too much to commute into Vancouver with zone fares for the bus and high parking costs and gas for car drivers. And it takes forever to get there–we have second worse traffic congestion in North America.

Like or Dislike: 0  0

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:23 am 22

To Domocrass:

I doubt that big box stores and demographic change are the main reasons why retail in Vancouver is struggling.

Hot debate. What do you think? 10  10

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:24 am 23

To domocrass:

If anything, older people are less likely to shop online than younger people.

Hot debate. What do you think? 14  8

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:25 am 24

To Domocrass:

-Online retail will never completely replace bricks and mortar retail–not everyone has a credit card (esp. in this maxed out credit environment) and lots of people still like to touch what they are buying

Like or Dislike: 0  0

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:26 am 25

To domocrass:

Online retail will never replace bricks and mortar stores because some people don’t have credit cards and some people still like to touch what they are buying

Hot debate. What do you think? 17  9

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:27 am 26

To domocrass:

Vancouver hardly has any big box stores. Vancouver wouldn’t allow Walmart in the city. If you live in Point Grey, where would you go if you wanted to go to a big box store?

Hot debate. What do you think? 13  12

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:30 am 27

To domocrass:

If online shopping and big box stores are behind the demise of retail in Vancouver, then things should be even worse in Surrey. Surrey has more big box stores than Vancouver and a younger population that is more likely to shop online. Plus, we are closser to the US border for cross border shopping.

But I have been noticing a revival in retail in Whalley. There are new stores opening up on King George Blvd all the time. Surrey Place Mall/Central City has added a new wing and new stores are opening there all the time. This is in contrast to about 10 years ago when the mall was in decline.

Hot debate. What do you think? 9  8

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:33 am 28

Vancouver retail is struggling for the same reasons the sense of community in Vancouver is in decline. Real estate is way too expensive. Too many houses sit empty because they were bought by investors. Rents are too high, including both retail and residential rents. People are being forced out of the city by government policy and market forces. Property taxes are too high. The population in the Lower Mainland is moving east towards the Valley. Transit zones and parking costs and gas prices making commuting into Vancouver an expensive proposition. Also, it’s just quicker to do your shopping in the burbs if you live in the burbs. Traffic congestion is the second worse in North America.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 50  5

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:36 am 29

So I had to split my post into about 6 posts because I was in moderation purgatory. Last time my comment needed to be approved by the moderation, it never did get through. If you read my last six comments, what in there could possibly have required moderation? No links. No foul language. This moderation stuff really sucks. You have to re-phrase what you typed to get through the moderation filter. When I bless this blog with my wisdom I don’t have time to continuously think of ways to rephrase my words to get past the moderation crap.

Hot debate. What do you think? 12  15

Anonymous Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:54 am 30

I have never had my comments moderated.

Like or Dislike: 7  0

Anonymous Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:57 am 31

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: “When I bless this blog with my wisdom”

I think you may be overestimating our longing to hear what you have to say about on-line shopping.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 27  7

Vote Down The Facts Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 10:01 am 32

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs:

How can rents be too high? The vacancy rate is very low, so people are obviously prepared to pay the current rates.

As for property taxes, they seem considerably lower than parts of the US, So when you say they’re ‘too high’, by what measure are you referring to?

Hot debate. What do you think? 11  7

Vote Down The Facts Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 10:03 am 33

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: “, what in there could possibly have required moderation?”

Excessive length, probably.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 22  1

s.y.p. Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 10:07 am 34

sign of the times?
was in yaletown on monday – you know the place for expensive denim and dog outfits…

saw there was a dollar store there….YES IN YALETOWN.

Hot debate. What do you think? 19  6

Vote Down The Facts Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 10:17 am 35

@s.y.p.:

That dollar store has been there for years.

Hot debate. What do you think? 14  1

s.y.p. Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 10:24 am 36

@Vote Down The Facts: i dont go to yaletown very often…

Like or Dislike: 8  0

Many Franks Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 10:58 am 37

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: Joe, I’d be more likely to read your comments if I didn’t have to wade through the subsequent moderation spazz-out to get to them. The admin has in the past mentioned several conditions that result in posts getting flagged for moderation (length; number of links) and has almost always been quick to release posts that got hung up. Please exercise a little more patience; it’ll probably help your arguments get heard.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 26  1

jay Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 11:10 am 38

Demographic Changes in West Point Grey Area

If all the houses sold in the area in the last few years were $2 million+ (a fact), what kind of salary can support $1.5 million mortgage? Top 1% or 0.5% of the country?

Demographic link:
http://www.blocktalk.ca/vancouver/point-grey/lifestyle/

Hot debate. What do you think? 10  0

G Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 11:16 am 39

@jay:

Your link says the avg household salary there is $140k. With a large downpayment it’s possible

Like or Dislike: 3  5

Not much of a name... Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 11:22 am 40

@G: My wife and I come in just shy of that for our household income. We would never entertain buying a $1.5M property. We simply couldn’t afford it, no matter the down payment.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 20  0

jesse Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 11:27 am 41

@G: “With a large downpayment it’s possible”

Well that’s the real trick, isn’t it.

Hot debate. What do you think? 13  0

vangrl Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 11:40 am 42

“Unfortunately, it’s yet another mortgage-related media story that is long on speculation and short on substance.”
“Now then, here is something that shouldn’t come as a shock: CMHC’s emili system, at times, overvalues properties. We all know that. It also undervalues properties (but that sort of thing doesn’t make for scintillating headlines). ‘

says the mortgage brokers…

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2012/10/cmhcs-emili-under-fire.html

Like or Dislike: 4  2

Best place on meth Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 11:43 am 43

A senior Chinese banking executive has warned against the proliferation of off-book wealth management products, comparing some to a Ponzi scheme in a rare official acknowledgement of the risks they pose to the Chinese banking system.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/12/us-china-banking-shadowloans-idUSBRE89B06D20121012

This is shocking news.

Hot debate. What do you think? 12  1

vangrl Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 11:45 am 44

and a comment on the article by “appraiser”

“Having said that, as a professional appraiser, it was disturbing to read yesterday from other mortgage broker web sites how handing the valuation job “back to appraisers” will cause an uproar in the mortgage business.

The reason cited was that appraisers evidently come in too low on valuations. Too low in relation to what exactly? The value that the homeowner gave to the lender regarding the estimated market value of their home?

I perform over 100 appraisals per month, and the homeowner’s EMV on 90% of the orders I receive is invariably too high, sometimes way too high. It is no secret that homeowners routinely over-value their own homes.

Mortgage brokers have to remember that their client is not my client. I sometimes wonder if it was their money on the line, would mortgage brokers be so willing to approve the deal?”

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 41  0

Patiently Waiting Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 11:45 am 45

Response to Just Looking from last thread:

I agree I gave an extreme example, especially on the debt side (sources elsewhere indicate an average $27K student debt). But nonetheless, the situation for recent graduates is dire. To have a 7-10% unemployment rate for recent university grads is revealing of the state of our province and how were treating the up-and-coming generation. From looking at earlier surveys, this appears to be worse than what it was a decade previous.

“Median income: $40k”

That seems really low for someone who has to live in this city while paying back student loans. Compared with recent surveys from a decade previous, it appears graduate median incomes (two years out) increased by about 10% in ten years. When I look at the general population in the Lower Mainland (Labour Force Income Profile), it looks like median incomes across the board increase by about 30%.

Maybe I’m reading the stats wrong, but it doesn’t look good.

Like or Dislike: 8  1

Patiently Waiting Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 11:50 am 46

@Patiently Waiting: Maybe the difference in incomes between the graduate profile and the LFIP is that one is adjusted for inflation and the other isn’t. Sorry, that just occured to me.

Like or Dislike: 1  0

Vote Down The Facts Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 12:13 pm 47

@Patiently Waiting: “To have a 7-10% unemployment rate for recent university grads is revealing of the state of our province and how were treating the up-and-coming generation. From looking at earlier surveys, this appears to be worse than what it was a decade previous.”

Perhaps some of those 7-10% should have considered their major more carefully. The world only needs so many media studies and psychology graduates.

Hot debate. What do you think? 16  10

boogeybear Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 12:21 pm 48

CMHC’s emili program did allow homes to be sold at ever increasing prices.

When emili was first introduced in 1996, the computer program worked well. It was a good system to use to cross check a property’s value when the property sold. The failure came when those that were making the mortgages also were inputting the data. One quickly learned how to “game” the program to get a higher value when refinancing a home.

If a property oversold by 5 or 10 percent, the program would adjust itself. And then that sale became part of the data to approve even higher prices. This escalated when the market was hot as agents were setting asking prices by adding $50,000 to the last sale price in the neighborhood or peak pricing.

The problem with human appraisers are that they are slow and more expensive in relation to a computer algorithim. But that actually added stability to the housing market. A bit of a cooling off period when buying a home. The problem came when we started mortgaging homes in less time than it took to get a Big Mac burger.

Would you like fries with that McMansion?

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 36  0

G Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 12:24 pm 49

@jesse:

If $140k is the average household income in point grey, most people should have large downpayment or they inherited the home from parents. Or there could be a few who have much higher average household income.

Like or Dislike: 3  2

Hugh G Rection Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 12:36 pm 50

@SYP
“saw there was a dollar store there….YES IN YALETOWN.”

Renters gotta shop somewhere, right…..?

insert sarcasm emoticon

Hot debate. What do you think? 6  5

Best place on meth Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 1:18 pm 51

Also no surprise here, the Conservatives have sold us out to China.

In secret.

http://www.greenparty.ca/stop-the-sellout

Hot debate. What do you think? 21  3

DonLogan Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 1:25 pm 52

@Vote Down The Facts:

nice problem to have…

Like or Dislike: 2  2

jesse Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 1:45 pm 53

@G: “most people should have large downpayment or they inherited the home from parents”

It could mean the neighbourhood is gentrifying, in which case the average income lags that of the marginal buyer.

Like or Dislike: 2  1

Harry Wang Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 2:12 pm 54

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

@jay: If you want a 2 million dollar place in Point Grey, it’s easy. Sell your 1.5 million place ( you can find these on the west side richmond, north van, etc.) and get a mortage for $500k. now the question is, what percent of incomes can support a mortage of $500k?

the answer is: plenty of them can.

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 5  13

patriotz Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 2:14 pm 55

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs:
” Property taxes (in Vancouver) are too high.”

Compared to where? And even if they were high, would that result in higher rents? What are the property taxes and rents like in Montreal?

Hot debate. What do you think? 15  1

vangrl Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 2:16 pm 56

“OMG!!! Can you say PRICED TO SELL? We’ve just dropped the price way, waaay below market value on this fantastic 3 bedroom, ground floor corner unit in the fabulous 1940′s art deco Seacrest Apartment building just steps away from the shops, bars, restaurants and beaches near Davie and Denman. This bright and extremely spacious residence is only enhanced by the exquisite view to the colourful gardens outside and the quiet, tree lined street beyond. The recently refinished original oak floors make the whole apartment light and fresh. Co-op, 35% down payment required, no pets/rentals, and board approval required. At this extremely reasonable price it will go quickly so make an offer. Open House Sunday October 14th 1-3PM ”

hows about we figure out what “market value” is when it actually sells

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 31  0

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 2:25 pm 57

@Many Franks

“The admin…has almost always been quick to release posts that got hung up.”

I have posts from several days ago that still haven’t been released. They still say “Your comment is awaiting moderation” days later, after no one is reading that part of the blog anymore.

That said, I do agree with you that I should exercise more patience and I will try to do that going forward.

Hot debate. What do you think? 6  4

JR Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 2:26 pm 58

@Vote Down The Facts: “Perhaps some of those 7-10% should have considered their major more carefully. The world only needs so many media studies and psychology graduates.”

What an ignorant comment.

Regardless, the statistic is a bit meaningless. If it were 50% then it would be obviously concerning, but what the stat doesn’t tell you is what % of those employed are in their intended careers or in a professional track career. You could have 7% unemployment but if 50% of those are employed at Timmy’s it’s a bit disconcerting.

Having worked at a local University for 10 years I can tell you that they are really good at preparing people for more school. It’s a great business model.

Hot debate. What do you think? 17  6

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 2:31 pm 59

@Vote Down the Facts

You suggest that my comment may be held in moderation due to excessive length.

I don’t think that’s it. My comment #15 was not held in moderation and it was 527 words. The comment that was held in moderation was only 354 words.

Hot debate. What do you think? 7  12

UnagiDon Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 2:36 pm 60

@jay:
“Only one UBC employee can afford to own a westside home.”
http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/only-one-ubc-employee-can-afford-to-own-a-westside-home/

Hot debate. What do you think? 9  2

Vote Down The Facts Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 2:44 pm 61

@JR: “What an ignorant comment.”

It was a little tongue-in-cheek, but the idea that degrees in certain subjects are overvalued isn’t mine or particularly new and neither is the suggestion that easier access to student loans (credit) is forming an “education bubble”, much like a housing bubble.

Hot debate. What do you think? 13  5

jay Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 2:53 pm 62

@UnagiDon:
That makes sense, e.g. you need way more than $140 K income to get the large ($1.5 million?) mortgage.

My assumption is that most of the $2 million+ purchases are cash deal, so banks are shutting out, and household income is not in the picture.

Like or Dislike: 0  6

Papa Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 2:53 pm 63

BPOM : “Also no surprise here, the Conservatives have sold us out to China. In secret.”

If it is not reported it did not happened. Talk about corruption of the media, opposition (except the greens) and our intelligentsia.

Hot debate. What do you think? 12  5

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 3:08 pm 64

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

@Anonymous #31

“I think you may be overestimating our longing to hear what you have to say about on-line shopping.”

I wasn’t the one who brought up on line shopping. Domocrass brought up on line shopping in post #16, saying that part of the reason retail is struggling in Point Grey may be due to the rise of on line shopping. I was just saying I don’t think that’s the reason.

17 people voted your comment up and only 3 people voted it down. Okay, I can take a hint. My contributions to this blog are not appreciated.

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 8  17

joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 3:14 pm 65

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

My comment #59 has already been voted down twice?! I’m just trying to understand what causes a comment to require moderation. If my 500+ word comment got through fine, then it doesn’t make sense that “excessive length” is the reason why my 300+ word comment got held in moderation.

VCI Admin has only said excessive links require moderation. Well, none of my recent comments held in moderation have had any links.

It is frustrating when you take the time to explain something to see it not get through. My comment still hasn’t made it through moderation and that was written about 6 hours ago.

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 6  25

crashcow Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 3:14 pm 66

from the yahoo article:
“Whisperings about a downward trend in the housing market have made some first-time buyers more cautious about buying at this moment.”

Yup. Price declines beget price declines.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 27  1

Vote Down The Facts Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 3:16 pm 67

@vangrl: “hows about we figure out what “market value” is when it actually sells”

At $409/sqft I imagine it will sell for over asking. But the 35% downpayment is the wild card here.

Hot debate. What do you think? 3  7

patriotz Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 3:28 pm 68

@jay:
“My assumption is that most of the $2 million+ purchases are cash deal, so banks are shutting out, and household income is not in the picture.”

If that were true sales of these houses would not have slowed down after the new mortgage rules.

Right?

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 28  3

patriotz Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 3:33 pm 69

@Vote Down The Facts:
“But the 35% downpayment is the wild card here.”

I wouldn’t call it a wild card since it’s a known factor. The real wild card is the co-op approval.

These factors make it very hard to speculate on this kind of property, which means that the price/rent (the latter has to be estimated as they can’t be rented) is a good idea of what condos would be going for if government policies didn’t encourage speculation.

Hot debate. What do you think? 12  3

jay Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 3:49 pm 70

@patriotz:
“If that were true sales of these houses would not have slowed down after the new mortgage rules.

Right?”

Very few buyers are affected by new mortgage rules.
However, for various reasons, the hot overseas money stopped flowing in since May, 2012. China’s economy slow down may be one of the reasons, change in immigration policy may be another (Fed has void tens of thousands applications and refund the application fee) and finally, there are limited number of people in the world who have enough cash to buy houses in Vancouver.

Hot debate. What do you think? 8  13

Vote Down The Facts Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 4:07 pm 71

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

@patriotz: “If that were true sales of these houses would not have slowed down after the new mortgage rules. Right?”

Correlation is not causation.

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 2  10

Ralph Cramdown Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 4:22 pm 72

@jay:
“My assumption is that most of the $2 million+ purchases are cash deal, so banks are shutting out, and household income is not in the picture.”

Even that Facebook founder guy got himself a mortgage. You can rent money for 3%. Most people in the $2MM+ bracket, I imagine, know how to make more than that on investments. So they mortgage the house, invest the proceeds, write off the interest costs, and grow slowly richer, but not as slowly as someone who’s got $2MM tied up in a house appreciating at the general rate of the property market. Leverage.

Hot debate. What do you think? 11  3

Just Looking Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 4:46 pm 73

Again, this is off topic – please skip if you aren’t interested in the labour market/new grads stuff. This kind of stuff is an associated piece of the puzzle for Real Estate, but not direct RE analysis.

@Vote Down the facts 2:44

Applied Sciences and Engineering grads across the province has a 7% unemployment rate. It’s not major choice or even trades vs. university.
Check out the trades stats: http://outcomes.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/SORSLite/APPSO/ByTrade.aspx
I chose ‘welders’ from BCIT as I thought they would be in decent demand and therefore a good control group to BA grads. I was wrong: 19% unemployment.

In general, the stats don’t bear out the assertion that it’s a flood of useless lit majors that is the problem. If you care to provide data on your assertion to refute the data I’ve provided, I’d be keen to be educated.

Students need to like their field and be talented and be able to compete in a competitive labour marketplace. Even if they are all these things, the current economic environment means they still may not be successful. It’s a tough economy, and that disproportionately affects new entrants to the labour market. No amount of redesign of the education system will change the supply and demand equation for labour in BC.

’27k avg debt vs. 20k avg student debt’:
I like the BC stats data as it is local to BC and isn’t run by the Canadian Federation of Students, who have a bias. The key thing from a macro perspective is that less than 1/3 of students graduate with a debt that is 10k+. More than half have zero debt. 20-40k of debt sucks on an individual basis, but isn’t the norm. It is a significant minority, though, so is non-trivial.

@JR: take the time to look at the stats from the BC Outcomes surveys. The whole point of my posts is to try to put the anecdotes that drive the public discourse into the context of the data we have.

Some more data:
53% of BA/BSc (non-applied) degree grads say they are employed in an area related to their field. This is actually not bad: these degrees are about gaining a broad skill set, not to provide job training.
77% say their education is useful in their day-to-day work.

In the most recent 5-year out survey, over 70% of grads from universities are in fields requiring a university degree. These numbers aren’t perfect, but the norm for uni grads is not to be an eternal barista, or retail clerk etc, especially when you consider the fact that career trajectories/decisions/progressions are so complex both on individual circumstances and labour market circumstances.

@Patiently Waiting

I agree that it is challenging for new grads. The most recent 5-year data shows healthier incomes for grads (60K) – don’t forget that the first few years of one’s career usually sees a quicker income growth YoY than mid-career. It’s a tough slog paying debt down and living in one of the most unaffordable cities in the world.

As for the income difference today vs. 10 years ago, it does look less good. Don’t forget that supply of grads has gone up – there’s been tons of enrolment growth at universities across Canada in the past 10 years. It’s also a demographic factor: there are the big cohorts of baby boomer’s kids moving into the labour market right now, this was just starting in 2002/2003. These are the largest cohorts since the baby boomers themselves.

In sum: it’s not 100% awesome, but it’s not as dire as some media protray. University remains the main road to white collar work. Lots of people want to shoot for that and I’m not about to suggest we reduce the size of the entering classes at universities in an attempt to pick winners: we aren’t good enough at predicting future potential of individual students.

Anyways, my .02 – hopefully it has provided insight.

Happy Friday!

JL

Hot debate. What do you think? 18  2

jesse Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 4:53 pm 74

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
http://www.bcbusinessonline.ca/homes-and-real-estate/sounding-alarm-vancouver-real-estate-bubble

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 26  0

patriotz Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 4:53 pm 75

@Just Looking:
“In the most recent 5-year out survey, over 70% of grads from universities are in fields requiring a university degree.”

Only legally recognised professions actually require a university degree. Certainly in other fields employers may hire only university graduates, but if there weren’t so many of them, employers would have to hire people without degrees, as used to be the case. Credential inflation.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 29  5

Oh Oh Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 5:00 pm 76

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reo/3334938838.html

LOL this should become more common in the days-weeks ahead

Remember if you don’t ask….you don’t get

Like or Dislike: 8  0

Oilman Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 5:04 pm 77

@jay: ‘finally, there are limited number of people in the world who have enough cash to buy houses in Vancouver.’

…and it is becoming incresingly clear by the day that even if they could, they wouldn’t want to….the lustre is off this 3 dressed up as a 9!

Hot debate. What do you think? 17  1

anono Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 5:09 pm 78

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: you are a drama queen, that’s why I vote you down.

Hot debate. What do you think? 15  11

Anonymous Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 5:11 pm 79

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: Well, now you know how we non-bears feel commenting on this blog. Sucks, doesn’t it?!

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 9  20

Anonymous Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 5:29 pm 80

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: Maybe if you always included a comment about how this market is going to hell in a handbasket and then said something meanspirited about home owner and/or “realturds”, you wouldn’t get voted down. Just sayin …

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 8  18

Best place on meth Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 5:49 pm 81

@jesse:

Apparently this realtor, Leah, is too stupid to realize that Seth was merely posting an article from the National Post and he didn’t actually “say” anything to that effect.

5 weeks of training and they can’t even read.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 28  2

paulb Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 5:52 pm 82

New Listings 202
Price Changes 139
Sold Listings 99
TI:19092

Have a great weekend!

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 136  1

YLTNboomerang Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 5:54 pm 83

@jesse: I have no idea what that article is trying to say…it’s like the used house salesperson went on a diatribe and then lost focus but rather than proofread, hit send.

Hot debate. What do you think? 16  1

jesse Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 6:23 pm 84

@Best place on meth: “5 weeks of training and they can’t even read”

Not so glowing an endorsement of someone tasked with negotiating a multi-hundred-thousand-dollar purchase agreement. Surely Ms. Back isn’t blaming a bunch of “spineless” anonymous bloggers and forum dwellers for the recent housing sales malaise!

Hot debate. What do you think? 16  2

realist Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 7:10 pm 85

re: West Point Grey

West 10th Avenue shopping district has always been a tough go for commercial tenants. The mix has changed, with increasing domination by high margin/higher end destination retailers (jewellers, Duxiana} and chains (Tim Horton, the inevitable Starbucks). After 30 years, the Cloth Shop vacated 10th Ave this summer for Granville Island – it seems quilting is no longer much of a hobby for West side women! Broadway as well has many commercial vacancies from Alma to Cambie.

Hot debate. What do you think? 15  1

Devore Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 7:42 pm 86

@joe_blown_away_by_high_housing_costs: You need to seriously chill out, you ARE the VCI drama queen. It’s like you watch the page like a hawk after making your post, and we can expect a followup 2 minutes later complaining about being voted down, and then another post a few minutes after saying we don’t appreciate you and you’re leaving.

We all have posts that will inexplicably get voted down or up (hey, like this one!), and some that will generate discussion and others that are seemingly ignored, for reasons that have probably more to do with the weather and time of month than logic.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 45  7

YLTNboomerang Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 7:55 pm 87

Please please please do not turn the post office into condo’s…

http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/410409–canada-post-building-in-downtown-vancouver-for-sale#Comments

Hot debate. What do you think? 11  1

YLTNboomerang Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 7:58 pm 88

@YLTNboomerang: And get rid of the largest stamp

http://chineseinvancouver.blogspot.ca/2008/03/worlds-largest-stamp-resurrects-in.html

Like or Dislike: 1  2

YLTNboomerang Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 8:00 pm 89

@YLTNboomerang: Ahh, they tried before and failed:

http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/story.html?id=99f899e8-90a5-432c-a9e6-643ab8ec1990&k=15744

Like or Dislike: 1  1

real_professional Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 8:28 pm 90

My personal take on university now is that it is a big waste of time. Go to school to become something like a Pharmacist, engineer, software programmer, doctor lawyer, accountant,…. etc. Generalist degrees are useless especially humanities. I hate to say it but they send a signal that you couldn`t handle more. like a person with two undergrads or two master degrees,it sends a signal that you didn’t have options or know what to do so you went back to school…. at the same level.

Generalist degrees are a great and relatively easy way for getting into post grad programs and for generalist government administration jobs.

I have a BSc, MBA, CFA… I don’t find any of these credentials that wondrous. The BSc was the toughest, the MBA was most enjoyable … The CfA, I don’t understand why the finance industry here values it.. but they do.

In my social circle the people that are the highest earners adjusting for age are: A cop, who makes 150k+ with overtime and then pension benefits, and a Long shore man… The cop has a high school education, and the long shore man is a high school drop out.

I know a few PhD friends too, they are good people, not pompous but are humanity PhDs… I consider them intelligent, but not brilliant, and actually not very well read. One of the most well read people I know is a mechanic.

The correlation between education, intelligence, income, and happiness is actually very low. I don’t expect it to change either. However I believe the role of universities in educating our workforce will be knocked down a few pegs in the next few decades.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 51  13

Anonymous Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 8:40 pm 91

@G: “If $140k is the average household income in point grey, most people should have large downpayment or they inherited the home from parents. Or there could be a few who have much higher average household income.”

No, most people who live in Point Grey bought prior to the bubble.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 26  2

More Data Please Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 8:55 pm 92

@Papa:”If it is not reported it did not happen”
@Best place on meth: “no surprise here, the Conservatives have sold us out to China”
@More Data Please:BEND OVER CANADA!
@Meh: “How real estate [cleptocracy] works in China”

RE:
Also no surprise here, the Conservatives have sold us out to China.

In secret.

http://www.greenparty.ca/stop-the-sellout

I thought it would be fun to summarize the thread started by @meh’s comment about how real estate property rights work in China’s cleptocrat environment.

I personally don’t identify with any current political party in Canada, but I took a moment to sign the Green Party’s online petition to open debate on the China in Canada investment rights agreement which automatically becomes law on October 31!

What about you? There are plenty of complaints about “HAM” on this board. Gosh, where does “HAM” come from and how do they accumulate it? Hmmm. I wonder. Maybe there should be some debate on throwing the doors wide open to “HAM” buying more than just real estate?

Anybody? Hello? Calling all HAM?

Vote my post down. This is noise. We are only worried about RE on this board. Other forms of investment can’t possibly be my concern, right? If it’s uncomfortable or requires more than a millisecond of though, vote it down!

Like or Dislike: 0  0

mclovin Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:04 pm 93

If $140k is the average household income in point grey, most people should have large downpayment or they inherited the home from parents. Or there could be a few who have much higher average household income.”

No, most people who live in Point Grey bought prior to the bubble.

Well said. $140K is a ridiculously low income to afford Point Grey. What is the avg house price $2.5 mil+? $140K after tax wouldn’t even cover the mortgage payment and would take up 125% of the post-tax income.

It keeps going back to the same old Vancouver statement “I could never afford to buy the house I live in today” Well if you can’t what makes you think anyone else can?

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 39  7

Jennette Mclandon Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:07 pm 94

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

McLovin,

Do you declare all of your income?

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 6  18

YLTNboomerang Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 9:58 pm 95

@real_professional: Agree, I’m BASc, MBA, CMA. BASc was hardest, MBA most interesting, and CMA most annoying and political. I’ve given my kids the following post secondary options that I will fund:

1. A trade
2. Career oriented university as you mentioned (engineer, medicine etc.)
3. Whatever they want in University as long as it is complete in 4 years and then they do a 1 year full-time MBA immediately afterwards to see if they can figure out how to make a career out of the degree they just did.
4. If none of the above are attractive then I’ll pay off a longshorman to hire them.

Regarding number 4 above, I have a longshorman friend too; holy $hit they are overpaid!!!!! Harbour pilot is also a pretty good gig. I reckon the $25K I’ll have to pay for university is more than enough of a bribe to get them in the union. Normally I would scorn any form of bribery but the Unions are criminal already so if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 28  6

space889 Says:
October 12th, 2012 at 11:48 pm 96

@YLTNboomerang: I have BSc and CFA and no it’s not much help in Vancouver but again what’s Vancouver’s financial scene like? We have MBAs doing jobs that a good BComm can do. We have a lot of over-qualified, over worked, and under paid people here.

Unfortunately the financial industry is also moving past traditional CFA now. Most of the new jobs all require grad degrees in areas like Math, Physics, Stats, specialized financial engineering MBAs. Math and HFT is in and good old fashioned security analysis is on decline.

Hot debate. What do you think? 15  2

Anonymous Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 12:07 am 97

@real_professional: “My personal take on university now is that it is a big waste of time.”

One thing you have to consider more than how much money you make is the job you do. If you hate your job then the money doesn’t mean much. For example working shift work sucks.

I can also tell you as someone who didn’t go to university even if I had a useless arts degree it would have helped just to have it on the resume.

I think the mistake people often make is a university degree will automatically get them a job. It won’t. You still have to earn it. The university degree will open more doors and increase your pay even if you don’t actually use the degree in your work. Employers like to see it and many look at it as a minimum standard.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 28  3

patriotz Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 4:02 am 98

@Jennette Mclandon:
“Do you declare all of your income?”

The majority of the population who have only T4 (or in my case also T5) income have no choice, dimwad.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 27  2

patriotz Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 4:12 am 99

Mortgages and loans – harder for the self-employed?

As a self-employed website developer who had recently restructured his business, Greg Schmidt knew that refinancing his mortgage wasn’t going to be a piece of cake.

“I had a little bit of a line of credit built up from shifting the focus of the business and my car lease had come up for being bought out, so I needed money to take care of that,” said Mr. Schmidt, a single 42-year-old who owns a home in Toronto that includes an apartment for income. “It turned out the best way to go was to do a new mortgage, increase the amount of the old one and take care of those costs.”

However, when he approached his bank, he was told “the numbers didn’t work for them.”

Low rates don’t do you any good when the home ATM is out of order.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 32  2

patriotz Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 5:14 am 100

@Anonymous:
“Employers like to see it and many look at it as a minimum standard.”

Which is the point really – for those not learning specific trade or professional skills, university is simply the new high school.

The difference is that high school is free. There is evidence that the growth in university enrolment in the US is one of the factors behind its decline in class mobility.

Hot debate. What do you think? 16  6

Many Franks Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 7:56 am 101

@patriotz: This article is hilarious. What does a self-employed web designer have that could possibly need restructuring? It takes a laptop and a clean shirt, end of story. You might as well talk about restructuring a lemonade stand.

It sounds to me like the guy’s business hit the rocks and the bank failed to automatically shovel money into the trunk of his leased car. That doesn’t spell trouble for self-employed borrowers to me, it spells basic prudence from the bank.

I’m self-employed in IT and I’m not worried in the slightest about my mortgage eligibility.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 21  1

"A Sharp" Accountant Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 8:58 am 102

I remember when I interviewed at KPMG, one of the questions that was asked of me at the final interview by the regional managing partner was “do you have an MBA”?

I replied “no”.

to which he said “Good, we’re not looking for MBA’s”.

We had an interesting discussion on the topic, ie, there is two kinds of MBA’s, one where the student goes into Bschool right out of their Bcomm (of which he was not interested in), vs a middle manager with a lot of potential, and an unrelated degree that needs to be able to understand organizational thinking, basic Financial analysis etc.

Sometimes I think that what made me stand out was NOT having an MBA lol. I got the offer, but ended up taking different offer at another firm.

Hot debate. What do you think? 18  1

YVR2ZRH Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 8:58 am 103

Michael Levy talking about gold on the Money Talks show. If you go and replay the audio vault at about 8:54, listing to his rant about what should happen to the gold price. Then sit back and thing about the same words being spoken about real estate. I think it is a very good parallel.

http://www.cknw.com/news/audiovault/index.aspx

Like or Dislike: 6  2

"A Sharp" Accountant Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 9:06 am 104

Oh, and BTW I have nothing against MBA’s,

I may actually go get one, (and this time with the support of the firm), I think it was just an “entry level” thing.

I think that if you want to learn any one skill in this world that will make money period, it is sales. Learn to sell and you will always be in demand. In public practice (accounting, law, engineering), the difference between those making 80k and 600k annually is highly co-related with their ability to sell. (unless they are a cross-border tax guru or something).

Hot debate. What do you think? 17  1

YVR2ZRH Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 9:21 am 105

Have a look at A18 in the Vancouver Sun today. This project has been around for so long that I did not even live in Canada when it was launched. I’ve since come to Vancouver, gone through the showroom (seen it was “60%” allocated in 2009″), watched it be built from the office of one of my clients and then continue to be invited to the exclusive offering. This building is one that barely made it to construction because the builders are really on the verge of losing 10-15% on this one. I have some inside info on this from an insider and it is a disaster. . . . Now they claim something about World’s best? Who is the advertising agency? Have you not lived and travelled? This place is nice be actually very poorly located for sightlines . . anyhow . . Enough of a rant. . .

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 23  2

Schmanonymous Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 9:28 am 106

@YVR2ZRH: You could name the project…without all of the black ops, tangential references. Saves us from having to buy the shi@ty Province newspaper.

Hot debate. What do you think? 10  1

Jennette Mclandon Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 9:37 am 107

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

Or you could drop out of high school and give hummers in the alley like you know who, it pays well if it’s not raining and your not too far out from welfare wednesday.

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 4  17

VHB Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 10:18 am 108

Total days	22
Days elapsed so far	9
Weekends / holidays	3
Days missing	0
Days remaining	13
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Sales	96
7 Calendar Day Moving Average: Listings	236
SALES	
Sales so far	840
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	1245
Projected month end total	2085
NEW LISTINGS	
Listings so far	2210
Projection for rest of month (using 7day MA)	3062
Projected month end total	5272
Sell-list so far	38.0%
Projected month-end sell-list	39.5%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY	
Inventory as of October 12, 2012	19092
Current MoI at this sales pace	9.16

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 40  1

"A Sharp" Accountant Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 10:24 am 109

Oh, and more on topic…

We all hear the statement “if prices go down and interest rates go up, you are just in the same position, so just buy now”.

Instinctually We’ve always known this is not true, because of the 5 yr. refinance term. So I made a little spreadsheet to answer the question quantitatively: “What is more important? the rate or the price”.

“Scenario 1″ assumptions:(buy now)
750k mortgage
2.99% rate (first 5 years)
7.00% rate (Remaining 20)

Scenario 2 assumptions (if rates up and prices down)
600k mortgage (20% price drop assumed)
4.50% rate (50% increase)
7.00% rate (remaining 20)

Analysis:
The payment for the first 5 years are somewhat similar. Scanario 1 is $3,552, and scenario 2 Pmt is $3,344 (your numbers may vary a couple bucks if you use an online took BC of the 2x annual compounding used by banks). From a discretionary cash flow perspective, the owner who waits will pay a slightly lesser payment under the assumptions above.

Payments for the remaining term are $4,970 for scenario 1 and $4,087 for scenario 2, causing a more significant dicretionary cash flow crunch on renegotiation under the higher price.

Total interst paid (25 yrs)is $656,190, and under Scenario 2 is $580,972. For a difference of $75,210. Add to this, the difference in purchase price of 150,000 and the total saved under a higher rate and lower price is $225,210.

Conclusion,
The price is more important than the rate.

* note, the severity of the 75k interest differential would be diminshed a little if we considered the PV of the interest (differential) outflows throughout the future, but the 150k differential is expressd in present value.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 45  1

realist Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 11:21 am 110

re: West Point Grey

Yes, most current owners did buy before or in the early stages of the bubble. Sad to say, most new owners have not made their money by legal means in Canada or any other relatively corruption-free, human-rights-abiding jurisdiction, nor have they paid all taxes owing on same. Rates of new owner occupancy are also low – West Pt Grey is slowly becoming BC’s poshest ghost town. Not good for West 10th Ave businesses.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 36  6

YVR2ZRH Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 12:38 pm 111

@Schmanonymous: Sorry about that – also – I realize it may not be possible to flip to the online version for free any more.

The project which has to be the biggest flop is Delta’s Residences on Georgia. They are now claiming in the ad somethin along the line of it being the most prestigeous project in the world (after they cross out the word Vancouver).

Deluisional is all I have to say. . .

On a separate note – - – Back in Switzerland. Went to visit some friends of mine last night. Let’s just say that in a place where everything is in balance – you don’t have real estate consume a disporportionate amount of your income. There is no misallocation of resources -and thus consumption is more balanced. My friends are a teacher and the head of IT security for an investment house. Went to see the 2 cars in the driveway – - a big Range Rover and a Porsche Cayman S. . . . Two middle class jobs. (and they are renters). . . you just would not get that in BPOE . . . . (not to mention the 6-8 weeks of vacation . . .. )

Hot debate. What do you think? 26  8

Oilman Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 12:53 pm 112

@YVR2ZRH: Thanks!

Like or Dislike: 2  1

Yalie Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 1:00 pm 113

@YVR2ZRH:

Here’s a link to the online version of the advertisement article in the Sun.

http://www.vancouversun.com/Private+Residences+Offer+hotel+amenities/7386445/story.html

Like or Dislike: 4  1

Cul de suc Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 1:10 pm 114

YVR2ZRH Says: “There is no misallocation of resources… 2 cars in the driveway..Range Rover and a Porsche Cayman S. . . .”

Well if those two car models are not misallocation of resources then I have a bridge in Egypt to sell you.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 28  5

mclovin Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 1:36 pm 115

This is scary:

“There are currently over 5,000 homes in Vancouver
metro area for sale for over $1 million according to
MLS.ca. In comparison, the NAR reports that in April,
just over 7,000 homes sold in the entire US were sold for
over $1 million”

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 41  5

Anonymous Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 3:03 pm 116

“To put the market back in the hands of appraisers could make a complete mess of things for clients,” said Cameron Mackie, an agent with Dominion Lending Centres Your Mortgage Partner. “It would return us to a system of very conservative valuations and cost borrowers more on top of that.”

http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/breaking-news/brokers-keep-emili/124528/

Hot debate. What do you think? 19  1

More Data Please Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 3:30 pm 117

@mclovin: re: Total number of $1M homes is 5000 Metro Vancouver vs total of 7000 in entire USA.

The origin of that stat is here apparently (correct me if wrong):

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/vancouver-housing-full-correction-mode-implications-canadian-banks

1. How many of those 5000 have a CMHC mortgage vs the mythical HFM “cash suitcase”?

2. How many of these 5000 are the property of foreign nationals who accumulated the downpayment (or totality in cash) by unethical confiscation of property in another country (eg: China)?

3. Is it a good idea to allow even more unrestricted investment by “newly wealthy” well connected Chinese interests across all types of assets in Canada effective October 31 under the new China-Canada investment agreement?

4. If point (3) is not a good idea, please take a moment to sign the petition to have the China-Canada investment agreement reviewed in Parliament before it becomes law in roughtly two weeks on October 31.

Hot debate. What do you think? 22  5

Vote Down The Facts Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 4:47 pm 118

@More Data Please:

How many $1m+ homes are listed in the US?

Like or Dislike: 4  1

patriotz Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 5:29 pm 119

@Vote Down The Facts:
Well there are 857 properties listed over $1 million in the City of Los Angeles, population 3,819,702.

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Los-Angeles_CA/price-1000000-na?source=web#/pg-1

Hot debate. What do you think? 22  4

patriotz Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 5:36 pm 120

@patriotz:
Here’s what an even million gets you in Bel Air:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1991-Stradella-Rd_Los-Angeles_CA_90077_M23851-86126?source=web

Hot debate. What do you think? 23  4

Just Looking Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 6:05 pm 121

@patriotz
“Only legally recognised professions actually require a university degree. Certainly in other fields employers may hire only university graduates, but if there weren’t so many of them, employers would have to hire people without degrees, as used to be the case. Credential inflation.”

I’ve really appreciated learning from your perspective and have a ton of respect for many of the things you say, but your view is an opinion that seems to assume the economy hasn’t changed since about 1930. The move from and agrarian/manufacturing based economy has changed the game and ‘professions’ for uni grads are no longer solely those with charters established in the early 20th century (CA, P.Eng, Law, MD). The knowledge/service based economy makes uni education more important.

I don’t disagree there is credential inflation – trucking co’s hiring only degree holders as drivers and such – but the NOC classification system on which the BC stats are based don’t classify those jobs as requiring degrees. See:
http://www5.hrsdc.gc.ca/noc/english/noc/2011/html/Matrix.html

Certainly there is some debatable stuff in the classification system. Performing artists are clasified as requiring a ‘degree’ – possibly true for most violinists in the VSO, not true for an action movie star.

The point is this: based on the present day economy, as an individual, the clearest way to social mobility is education. This is not to say it’s the only way, but the vast majority of people aren’t going to be capable of being successful self-taught entrepreneur savants like Bill Gates or Mark Zuckerberg (who actually both had a ton of help from universities, even though both are famous drop-outs).

It’s a macro vs. micro, real-world vs. ideal-world situation: if we had an ideal command economy with perfect information to those commanding, we could have a perfectly efficient education system producing only enough grads to fill the needs of the economy. This system would perfectly predict who was the optimal candidate for each role within society.

But we don’t have a command economy and we can’t make this perfectly efficient allocation.

So, we have chosen a different route. Voters, by and large, reward governments for providing more university spaces and educational opportunities. If the government didn’t fund this education, the rich would continue to educate their kids and the poor would not. Result: stunted social mobility. Further, while on the macro-level the stats suggest we have an over-supply of grads, at the micro-level, free and rational individuals correctly see that university education is the clearest route to a wide array of the most desirable jobs in the economy. They aspire to these jobs and so choose to take the risk they may not get the benefit. There are no sure things, and that’s okay.

Corporations don’t help in any major way: take the mining company this week that declared they would import 2000 Chinese workers. They could probably train Canadians to do this work, but recruiting and training would cost way more – easier to recruit uncomplaining Chinese workers who will work for less and be delighted about the increased safety standards at Cdn mines. This essentially puts a gun to the province’s head: create a training program specific to our mine, or we import workers. The feds don’t help by facilitating this labour importation in the name of ‘encouraging economic growth’ – no matter that the benefits of that growth are sent elsewhere as a result of the policy: enough rich Canadians and corporations will like it enough to pay for the next round of attack ads.

Of course, I fully acknowledge my interest in my viewpoint: my career prospects in my current job rely on a healthy demand for education just as a realtor’s do on a high volume RE market. Even so, I can’t see an alternate realistic way forward (happy to hear them, though). I do think there are a bunch of ways of making the existing system better.

This post is already too long and off topic to go into them – I’ll only continue the conversation on this topic if there is interest: it wasn’t my intent to turn this into VancouverEducation.info.

Hot debate. What do you think? 23  8

Cul de suc Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 6:30 pm 122

@Just Looking
hey, it is interesting to read your post. thanks.
i have question. what do you think about Maclean’s review of the best universities in Canada? Is it credible? Is it influenced by the universities (we know how media is influenced by RE industry)?
thanks

Like or Dislike: 7  0

Anonymous Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 6:34 pm 123

mclovin Says:
This is scary:

“There are currently over 5,000 homes in Vancouver
metro area for sale for over $1 million according to
MLS.ca. In comparison, the NAR reports that in April,
just over 7,000 homes sold in the entire US were sold for
over $1 million”

But it’s now a “buyer’s market” according to some local publications isn’t it?

Hot debate. What do you think? 18  1

patriotz Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 7:21 pm 124

@Just Looking:
I don’t disagree with anything you’ve said. My point is that the across-the-board devaluation of educational credentials (at both the high school and university levels) as enrolment grows means that students get less return out of both of them.

I wasn’t suggesting for a minute that government shouldn’t be funding higher education or assisting qualified students – quite the opposite. Financial assistance for attending university was much better in the 60′s and 70′s, when enrolments were smaller, than it is today.

Increasing university enrolment while decreasing assistance means shutting out lower income students and decreasing class mobility. It both shuts out lower income students from attending university and shuts out high school grads from decent jobs.

Hot debate. What do you think? 12  5

patriotz Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 7:27 pm 125

@Anonymous:
“But it’s now a “buyer’s market” according to some local publications isn’t it? ”

More correctly, it’s always a buyers’ market (note punctuation) because buyers always collectively determine prices. That is, a property cannot sell for more than someone is willing to pay for it.

It’s not this buyer’s market, because other buyers are willing to pay more. But yes, it is their market.

Hot debate. What do you think? 14  8

Vote Down The Facts Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 8:00 pm 126

@patriotz:

A buyers’ market is defined as when there are more sellers than buyers at a given price.

Hot debate. What do you think? 7  11

Anonymous Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 8:49 pm 127

@ Vote Down The Facts Says

According to Cambridge Dictionary, you are correct.

“a time when there are more goods for sale than there are people to buy them, so prices are usually low”

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/british/buyer-s-market

Besides, if Patriotz had noticed my emoticon at the end of my statement, he/she would have known that I was
making the greater point of being sarcastic.

Like or Dislike: 6  2

jesse Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 9:00 pm 128

@Anonymous: “so prices are usually low”

So now would not be a buyers’ market then.

Industry associations don’t want to call it what it is: a bear market or a falling market. Instead they call the market the most ironic thing possible, the very thing that’s lacking in a real estate bear market: buyers. Comedy gold.

Hot debate. What do you think? 17  5

Anonymous Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 9:10 pm 129

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

@patriotz: “More correctly, it’s always a buyers’ market…”

Thanks for making that clear for the 1000th time.

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 8  17

jesse Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 9:24 pm 130

@Anonymous: from your link:

“The major issues with appraisals are with clients that are refinancing and repositioning debt to consolidate,” Andre Semeniuk, a mortgage planner with Mortgage Architects, said in July. “Appraisers understand that because there’s no one waiting to sell the house there won’t be the same aggravation of coming in low on an appraisal on a refinance that there is on a purchase.”

Alrighty then.

Hot debate. What do you think? 13  1

casper Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 9:31 pm 131

Looks like the squid fought off his legal battles. A crude and nasty site, if your a realtor. http://albertabubbleblg.blogspot.ca/

Like or Dislike: 4  5

casper Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 9:33 pm 132

Hes a nasty dude, but I like him.

Hot debate. What do you think? 4  7

Aleksey Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 10:20 pm 133

Wow, open houses are all around in North Van. I could smell a desperation in the air.

Saw a 100000 price reduction sign on a Kimpton project which was finished this year. I wonder how it feels like for people who bought apartments before reduction (it was 75% sold).

Hot debate. What do you think? 20  3

Just looking... Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 10:31 pm 134

@patriotz
Thanks for clarifying. I think we mostly agree.

@cul de sac
I don’t see tampering with rankings as being an issue, more the premise. That said, there have been publicized cases of universities gaming the methodology. In Canada this has taken the form of capping class enrollments at just below the size of a given ‘bad’ indicator (ie: 199 instead of 200). This is dumb because it hurts students. Hasn’t been any cases of this publicized recently, though.

Ranking methodology is very tricky to do well. Ordinal rankings mask the fact that there is a fairly consistent quality across the country (unlike the US). Rankings also suffer from the problems of all agglomerated stats. To use a real estate analogy, choosing a university on rankings alone would be like buying a house in the city of vancouver based entirely on the fact that you saw the city was ranked among the most liveable cities in the world. They are a somewhat useful datapoint, but not terribly so.

My advice to any teen: if there is a program you like close to your parent’s basement, go there. Don’t be fooled into believing its the degree or the courses that will get you the dream career. Get as involved in extra curriculars as you can. Make yourself known to as many students, profs etc. This is all good practice for being a rising star at whatever job awaits.

Hot debate. What do you think? 14  3

WOWSERS Says:
October 13th, 2012 at 11:01 pm 135

Anyone attend the home show at BC Place? I would not be surprised if attendance is way down. Can anyone confirm?

Like or Dislike: 5  3

Mansur al-Hallaj Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 12:11 am 136

Plutarch, Life of Tiberius Gracchus, 8 (only slightly adapted):

—————

Of the territory which BC had, a part they sold, and a part they made common land, and assigned it for occupation to the poor and indigent among the citizens, on payment of a small rent into the public treasury.

And when the rich began to offer larger rents and drove out the poor, a law was enacted forbidding the holding by one person of more than five hundred acres of land.

For a short time this enactment gave a check to the rapacity of the rich, and was of assistance to the poor, who remained in their places on the land which they had rented and occupied the allotment which each had held from the outset. But later on the neighbouring rich men, by means of fictitious personages, transferred these rentals to themselves, and finally held most of the land openly in their own names.

Then the poor, who had been ejected from their land, no longer showed themselves eager for social involvement, and neglected the bringing up of children, so that soon all BC was conscious of a dearth of freemen, and was filled with gangs of cheap local (educated immigrants) and outsourced (overseas sweatshops) labour, by whose aid the rich cultivated their estates, from which they had driven away the free citizens.

————–

Spoiler: it ended well for nearly nobody.

Hot debate. What do you think? 18  3

patriotz Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 4:00 am 137

@Vote Down The Facts:
“A buyers’ market is defined as when there are more sellers than buyers at a given price.”

If there are more sellers than buyers at a given price, that price is above market by definition.

Which leads to the actual meaning of “buyers’ market” – sellers are asking above the market price.

Hot debate. What do you think? 10  2

Ralph Cramdown Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 6:51 am 138

@jesse: Industry associations don’t want to call it what it is: a bear market or a falling market.

This follows from the axioms of realtor-ism.
Axiom 1: Should I buy now? Yes.
Axiom 2: Should I sell now? Yes.

From these, you can see that there is no need to inquire whether the market is rising or falling, whether it would be better to wait to complete a transaction or to attempt it immediately. Thus there is no reason to label markets ‘bear’ or ‘bull,’ but only to know who, among those who are dealing right now, has the negotiating power.

Like or Dislike: 9  0

Cul de suc Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 7:40 am 139

@Just Looking

thanks for the comments and advice. it is very comforting to hear that education is very consistent across canada.

Like or Dislike: 6  0

gokou3 Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:02 am 140

@WOWSERS: Not the home show but I attended the interior design show at vcc couple weeks ago and also last year’s. Indeed it’s quieter this year; for one Ikea didn’t participate.

Like or Dislike: 5  0

Vote Down The Facts Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 10:03 am 141

@patriotz:

Yes, that’s exactly how it’s defined. Completely different to your original “it’s always a buyers’ market” assertion.

Like or Dislike: 3  6

patriotz Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 10:14 am 142

@Vote Down The Facts:
I was commenting on your definition of “buyer’s market” (hence the quotes) which reduces to meaning buyers are asking above market price.

But the intention of those in the RE business who use the term isn’t to let buyers know that sellers are asking above market, but to make them think that RE is a good buy at the current market price. That is, it’s used to deliberately mislead people.

Which means that AFAIC, the term is best not used at all, since as I’ve said, buyers (collectively) always control prices to the same extent, all the time.

Hot debate. What do you think? 14  2

patriotz Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 10:26 am 143

@patriotz:
“buyers are asking above market price.”

sellers are asking above market price, obviously.

Like or Dislike: 8  1

Brian Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 10:58 am 144

@Anonymous:

You are right. I am a doctor, I’ve gone to school for many years to learn my trade and for this particular job, I need all that training. But for most jobs, experience is KEY. My friend, who has a Bachelors, one Masters, and on the verge of getting another Masters (in his early 30s) has never really worked other than the odd tutoring job. I think this is a big mistake. No one will hire him (other than minimum wage jobs).

The problem is parents don’t understand this. They push their kids to get that four year degree, and the child, with no understanding of how the world works only knows to “go to school”. But you’re never really ever training for anything with your typical science or arts or even commerce degrees. Also, people with no experience going for an MBA are even more of a joke. Back when I was in the US, I was at a top 5 medical school, and we often mingled with the MBAers. They were all people who were accomplished, late 20s/early 30s or older with lots of experience and wanted to get ahead. The 22 year old fresh out of a bachelors really has no idea what he/she is getting into.

Hot debate. What do you think? 16  4

Anonymous Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 11:42 am 145

@ Patriotz

But the intention of those in the RE business who use the term isn’t to let buyers know that sellers are asking above market, but to make them think that RE is a good buy at the current market price. That is, it’s used to deliberately mislead people.

….which was the original intent of my sarcasm (if you scroll back) when I responded to Mclovin…you should count a few steamboats B4 you go off on a tangent, but go on ahead if you insist….

Like or Dislike: 4  5

Dumbest Time in 30 Years to buy Eal Estate Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 12:09 pm 146

You’re right Aleksey.

When the weather was still good I went to a bunch of Open Houses in North Van (out of sheer curiosity after all the noise of imminent collapse)

Man, what a shock!…to see that buyers are still dreaming and asking absolutely outrageous amounts for 50 year old dumps that are virtually tear-downs, and with realtors having the audacity to suggest that prices have now fallen to bargain levels.

The (price to income) levels are so out of whack that the mere idea that prices may recover like they did after the 2008 slump are ludicrous when you stop to think about it, especially when money from China has dried up.

I’m sort of puzzled that some credible authorities are only calling for a 20% drop. After defying reality for way too long, and with absolutely nothing to sustain the insanity, I am convinced we’re in for a correction similar to 1982 that took prices down by about 45%.

It boggles the mind to think what could actually happen when int rates go up, and folks realize that it’s not too late to sell.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 20  0

realist Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 1:18 pm 147

@ Brian

Entirely agree. It is not rare today to encounter a 28 year old who has never had a regular paying job where the boss does not care whose kid you are, but does care that you report to work @ 7am sharp as stipulated. Consequently, the under-35 set is lacking essential experience, sometimes to a remarkable degree. I usually find this a greater limitation to their instruction than their intelligence or content knowledge.
The above is not a criticism of the younger generation’s intrinsic lack of moral fiber; rather the situation has arisen from their being the unwitting targets of a consumerist, child-centered youth culture imposed on them by their parents, schools, and the chattering classes, ironically with the best of intentions. Yet their development usually has been retarded rather than enhanced.

Hot debate. What do you think? 13  0

realist Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 1:28 pm 148

And I should have added: the inexperience of the under-35′s most unfortunately includes matters such as savings, compound interest, leverage, mortgages, credit cycles, etc. This is generational: they often know no one who has lost money on real estate, so that possibility has no reality for them.

Hot debate. What do you think? 12  0

Oh Oh Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 2:33 pm 149

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/search/hhh/van?query=maynards&srchType=A&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=

Plenty of rentals coming to market,

watch for thousands more in this area alone

Hot debate. What do you think? 15  0

Brian Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 2:40 pm 150

@realist:
Agreed. I am under 35 (32 to be exact) and only now am I realizing what money is and what I can do with it. Money, invested in a good index fund is way better than dumping your money in real estate. Timing the market in real estate is impossible.

People I see nowadays just spend–with credit. People with middle class incomes buying million dollar+ homes like it’s no big deal. People who make 50K a year buying a 130K mercedes on credit. Crazy. People with no idea about how to budget. And this is largely in the Vancouver area. My American friends don’t dare buy million dollar homes, even though they’re all doctors who make 200k+ a year. My best friend in med school in the US is a specialist who still drives a Civic and rents. My other friend (also a doctor) also rents in southern california.

Like or Dislike: 0  0

Dumbest Time in 30 Years to Buy Real Estate Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 2:43 pm 151

….and Real Estate is even worse than “Eal Estate”

Like or Dislike: 1  2

Patiently Waiting Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 2:48 pm 152

@realist: I’m still getting head around the fact that the unemployment rate for BAs and BScs (who are in the workforce, not in school) two year after graduation is 9-10%. That is freakin horrible. Its worse than the overall unemployment rate of 6-8%. They don’t even have a part-time job in retail.

At the same time you have 15% who are working but making under $20k/year.

So that’s about 25% of BA and BSc grads, who really have nothing to show for their degrees after two years in the job market. That’s not counting many more who make $20-30K/year and probably could’ve done just as well without the degree.

How the hell did that happen? Are these rich kids who still live off Mom and Dad? How can you be in your late 20s with a degree, and be unemployed or working at poverty wages?

Like or Dislike: 9  0

logic Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 3:33 pm 153

@146 – yes the unemployment rate for 2-years out generalist degrees is depressing, but we are in a recession (or recent post-recession) environment, and I am sure that their unemployment % is still better than those in the SAME AGE bracket with no degree.

A better comparison is the 5-year out stats, where – historically – one sees much better numbers.

Still, not a great situation atm.

Like or Dislike: 3  0

Anonymous Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 3:59 pm 154

@Patiently Waiting: I’m still getting head around the fact…

Lucky you!

Like or Dislike: 5  3

VMD Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 4:30 pm 155

James Wong strikes again: Richmond real estate market outlook
Market sentiment has deteriorated further. Buyers prefer to stay on the sideline, waiting for home prices to fall further. The only way out for sellers who are determined to sell was to price their home more aggressively. Sellers who are taking deep cuts in reducing their selling prices are the ones likely to succeed in selling their homes.

Richmond detached homes over $1,000,000 are not seeing much buying interest. With total active listings of 686 and average sale around 28 homes the past 3 months, there are 24.5 months supply of homes in the market. For detached homes over $1,500,000, there are currently 353 homes for sale. With an average past 3 months sale of 12 homes, this translates into 29 months supply of homes. The decline in housing sales and home prices in Richmond will take many years to play out.

Now with the housing market experiencing a huge drop in sales, large over-hang of supply and poor market sentiment, home price decline is inevitable.
During the 1995 to 2001 downturn, not only employment in the construction industry contracted, thousands of real estate agents quit the business.

http://richmondbcrealestates.com/?p=844

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 36  0

VMD Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 4:34 pm 156

Richmond realtor James Wong also just wrote: “There are strong signs for a prolonged market downturn”

We are now witnessing the unwinding of the housing market. The severity and pace of price decline are dependant on the interaction of buyers and sellers perception of the market. At current price point, getting financing for a family earning $65,000 a year with 5% down payment will allow the buyer to afford a home valued at $280,000.

It will take many years before owning a home makes sense again. Home prices are not going up now or holding. Instead, the housing market is coming down in values. The rush to exit the market will take its toll on sellers who bought their homes recently.

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realist Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 5:01 pm 157

@ Patiently Waiting

Your questions are deep – I’m afraid my answers are rather superficial:

“How the hell did that happen?” Because there are big differences in the educational and job markets of 2012 vs 1962, some already nicely addressed in this blog.

“Are these rich kids who still live off Mom and Dad?” They generally are not rich kids, but Mom & Dad do support them to a varying extent. The young of the middle class today behave much more like the young rich of 50 years ago than the young middle class of 50 years ago. However, the young rich have never had to live in their parents’ basements.

“How can you be in your late 20s with a degree, and be unemployed or working at poverty wages?” No demand – our economy in increasingly dominated by Finance & RE. Why our economy has radically changed its structure in recent decades is a question I’ll leave to the economists, but I’d like to point out that this coincides with
1. the increasing wealth of the 1 percent, and
2. realtors being the last of the middle class who can buy a house on the west side of Vancouver!

Like or Dislike: 9  0

YLTNboomerang Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 6:28 pm 158

So all this talk about education and experience and couldn’t help think how timely that the hyper parents and coddled kids documentary was on CBC last night:

http://www.cbc.ca/documentaries/doczone/2010/hyperparents/

This is really a good doc and what I’ve been preaching for years how there is an entire generation out there that has no clue about reality and failure.

Hot debate. What do you think? 11  0

Anonymous Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 6:49 pm 159

@mclovin: “This is scary:

“There are currently over 5,000 homes in Vancouver
metro area for sale for over $1 million according to
MLS.ca. In comparison, the NAR reports that in April,
just over 7,000 homes sold in the entire US were sold for
over $1 million”

Yes, well of course! There’s no way Cam Good could take a dump in every major US City.

Like or Dislike: 6  3

Anonymous Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 7:20 pm 160

Speaking of million dollar homes, there are 43 million dollar homes from furry creek to the Squamish valley. A Realtor friend of mine said nothing above that price range is selling out here. He said there was one sale in Squamish over a million this year. With 27 over a million in Squamish alone, I think you could say that this market is f@cked.

Well-loved. Like or Dislike: 40  0

Boombust Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:03 pm 161

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

“Richmond realtor James Wong also just wrote: “There are strong signs for a prolonged market downturn”

Interesting.

So, because some realtor named JAMES WONJ declares that it’s over…it’s OVER?

Got it. I think.

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 5  21

Boombust Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 8:10 pm 162

Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.

…er, WONG.

Whatever.

Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike: 3  17

painted turtle Says:
October 14th, 2012 at 9:44 pm 163

@YLTNboomerang
Thanks for the link. I enjoyed the documentary. I agree with the anxiety aspect of the documentary, but apart from this, I do not think things change that much from one generation to the next.
In my job I deal with 20-35 yr old people, and I see that same mix of lazy/hard working, mature/immature people as when I was a student myself…

Like or Dislike: 8  0

Boombust Says:
October 15th, 2012 at 6:23 am 164

Some of you are far too touchy. There was no racism intended.

It could have been ANY name.

JOHN DOE anyone?

Like or Dislike: 4  2

patriotz Says:
October 15th, 2012 at 6:28 am 165

@Boombust:
I was hoping that this board would be a refuge from political correctness. Nobody has any problem with “Crusty”, “Chimpman”, “Sewer”, or what have you, but simply using an Asian name in a non-flattering context seems to bring out the PC police.

Hot debate. What do you think? 9  2

Many Franks Says:
October 15th, 2012 at 7:05 am 166

@patriotz:


Nobody has any problem with “Crusty”, “Chimpman”, “Sewer”, or what have you…

I’m not following your logic at all, but those do bother me. They’re asinine sloganeering that veers away from the critical thinking that I like about this blog, and towards groupthink.

Like or Dislike: 3  2

Anonymous Says:
October 15th, 2012 at 9:43 am 167

@Many Franks: “I’m not following your logic at all, but those do bother me. They’re asinine sloganeering that veers away from the critical thinking that I like about this blog, and towards groupthink.”

Get back to work Tsurd.

Like or Dislike: 0  3

Bcarm@shaw.ca Says:
October 15th, 2012 at 4:13 pm 168

Ha ha!

Like or Dislike: 0  0