Lowest September sales in 15 years

The official numbers aren’t in yet, but unless we had a gigantic number of sales that still need to be entered for the last day of the month it’s starting to look a lot like 2008.

..Actually worse than that.  According to Inventory we’re on track to have the lowest number of September sales in the last 15 years:

Sept unit sales Greater Vancouver (does not include Fraser Valley)
1994 = 2241
1995 = 1951
1996 = 2217
1997 = 2050
1998 = 1755
1999 = 1955
2000 = 1761
2001 = 2241
2002 = 2555
2003 = 3468
2004 = 3006
2005 = 3505
2006 = 2583
2007 = 2852
2008 = 1620
2009 = 3632
2010 = 2254
2011 = 2299
2012 = 1472 ***Sept 27

A few more hours to go, looks like Sept will make a record month for the lowest sales since 1995.

If Inventory is reading this, maybe they could update us on the final number in the comments.

 

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boogeybear
Guest
boogeybear

@VMD:
You really have no idea of the factors that effect housing.

boogeybear
Guest
boogeybear

@gokou3:

Stop being such a strawman turd.

Crikey
Guest
Crikey

@Anonymous:
“The problem is it is now too late. Those inflated mortgage payments don’t go away after the bust.”

Yes, true. The economic repercussions are baked in for some time to come.

But, as prices slowly return to “normalcy”… and a reality where average people can both buy a home and have disposable income to inject into the local economy…. new homebuyers who don’t mortgage themselves into oblivion will have enough extra cash to be able to once again breathe life into our economy.

FlipFlop
Guest
FlipFlop

It would be interesting to see a 24 month sales projection (month by month) of what we would expect to see to follow the trend of Miami/Vegas/etc during the US crash (per ZRH’s comments about the diffent trajectories down we may face).

If anyone has the time….

Seasonally and proportionally adjusted would make the most sense.

I dont have the time or data, but it would certainly be interesting to compare as each month goes by.

Maybe this is a good excercise for one of our resident Bulls, to prove its different here (and prove you’re not the bunch of useless trolls the moderation system makes you out to be).

FF

colt
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colt
VanDweller
Member
VanDweller
September summary. Copied from PaulB’s number. http://www.paulboenisch.com/ Date List Price+- Sold Xpired Inv+- Inv S/L(%) 12.08.31 170 82 81 268 -179 18720 48 12.09.04 364 145 88 894 -618 18102 24 12.09.05 327 120 69 97 161 18263 21 12.09.06 290 124 80 95 115 18378 28 12.09.07 295 128 54 103 138 18516 18 12.09.10 355 151 116 143 96 18612 33 12.09.11 329 135 79 152 98 18710 24 12.09.12 294 141 80 86 128 18838 27 12.09.13 285 116 91 101 93 18931 32 12.09.14 264 137 47 49 168 19099 18 12.09.17 316 171 89 210 17 19116 28 12.09.18 242 142 84 128 30 19146 35 12.09.19 248 143 87 101 60 19206 35 12.09.20 224 116 91 63 70 19276 41 12.09.21 198 141 74 90 34 19310 37 12.09.24 274 171 86 130… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

what the inventory should be around end of oct? ~19K?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@ Romeo Jordan

Extreme monetary and credit policy creates extreme market conditions.

Who wouldda thunk?

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Romeo Jordan: then you better list your shoebox, so it get to 20000 faster. sorry to hear that you will have lost 60% of you hard earn money. plus your prenant girlfriend, you are also fucked up!

Roberts Friend
Guest
Roberts Friend

RJ,

You may finally be right!

crashcow
Member

@good-format: we’ll just nickname our first/next child “paulb.” Problem solved.

Romeo Jordan
Guest
Romeo Jordan
Paulb – glad to hear it! Hope you have a good year, etc. And thanks for the stats/etc. I am firmly convinced that population and units of dwellings have grown over the past 15 years. Sales are in the tank, while interest rates are near record lows. This is getting interesting. We could plummet 60%, why not? There is NO REASON WHY NOT. Will we/won’t we? Only time will tell. But the fundamentals are totally fucked and the great unwashed will gradually learn a gigantic life lesson. History books will reference the Vancouver Housing Bubble in the same context as Dutch tulip bulbs. I think we’ll go to 20,000 listings this month. And prices will continue to fall, whatever the statistical averages show. THE SHIT IS HITTING THE FAN folks. This is not a dress rehearsal, this is the real… Read more »
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

good-format: I accidentally hit the down vote (I’m on my phone) so please count one of those negative votes as a positive.

paulb
Member

@good-format:

Lol, not necessary, but please send me some referrals! I am active on the North Shore and in Vancouver. I have had a good month. Sold 2 listings and closed 4 sales. The market is weak but well priced properties are selling. I am switching to Sotheby’s Int’l Realty in the next couple weeks which I am excited about.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Crikey: “…Leads to Canadians spending more of their disposable income on small businesses in the local economy”

The problem is it is now too late. Those inflated mortgage payments don’t go away after the bust.

G
Guest
G

@Best place on meth:

Forecasting is not easy, esp about the future.

ScubaSteve
Member
ScubaSteve

hey VHB, if you can post PaulB’s numbers from October 2011 and October 2010 I will put them into a chart again and update it daily.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

@Achilles HELOC:

Now he’s saying Vancouver prices will fall by “a third or more”?

This guys forecast changes daily like the weatherman’s.

Achilles HELOC
Guest
Achilles HELOC

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/10/01/too-big-to-bail/

Not normally a Garth fan, but tonight’s post about potential government actions to prop-up homeowners in Vancouver in the event of a bust caught my eye.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@good-format: I worry that if he accepts money for the data, MLS will come after him… in which case we’ll have to donate to his legal defense fund instead

good-format
Guest
good-format

I have not post for a long time.

I always feel sorry for Paulb when someone posts comments against realtors.

Am thinking to donate a little bit money to paulb to help him out.

If my post gets voted up by a big number, we could recommend paulb to setup Paypal account to accept donations.

Devore
Member
Devore

@Crikey: The “powers that be” believe in whatever will get them over the next hump. When was the last time a government did something necessary but unpopular(*), knowing it might cost them for the next decade or more? Good governance has been MIA for generations.

(*)I wouldn’t count HST in this, because:
A) democratic process, do not short-circuit,
B) we’ll never know senior leadership motivations for doing this. Certainly, Gordon Campbell isn’t shedding a single tear for losing his job over this.

Crikey
Guest
Crikey

@HAM Solo:
“Lower sales … leads to … higher inventory … leads to … lower prices …”

…Leads to Canadians spending more of their disposable income on small businesses in the local economy (NOT banks and realty-related stuff)… leads to more dollars flowing among businesses within the Canadian economy…. leads to less small business bankrupcies… leads to higher employment… leads to better economy…

I wonder if the powers-that-be have figured it out yet, that encouraging and propping up a housing bubble only hurts the economy very badly in the end… in exchange for a selfish short-term economic gain (from realty-investment-fever) that everybody, EVERYBODY with half a brain should know can never be sustained.

Oh well, for the time being… it is time to pay the piper for what has already been baked in.

Dog
Guest
Dog

Vangrl is creepy!

HAM Solo
Guest
HAM Solo

Thanks BR for data-scrubbing help. It definitely was an outlier in the data set that to me seems to support the idea that kiting continues to prop-up a group of people who must have ridiculous debtloads and unrealized capital losses.