Lowest September sales in 15 years

The official numbers aren’t in yet, but unless we had a gigantic number of sales that still need to be entered for the last day of the month it’s starting to look a lot like 2008.

..Actually worse than that.  According to Inventory we’re on track to have the lowest number of September sales in the last 15 years:

Sept unit sales Greater Vancouver (does not include Fraser Valley)
1994 = 2241
1995 = 1951
1996 = 2217
1997 = 2050
1998 = 1755
1999 = 1955
2000 = 1761
2001 = 2241
2002 = 2555
2003 = 3468
2004 = 3006
2005 = 3505
2006 = 2583
2007 = 2852
2008 = 1620
2009 = 3632
2010 = 2254
2011 = 2299
2012 = 1472 ***Sept 27

A few more hours to go, looks like Sept will make a record month for the lowest sales since 1995.

If Inventory is reading this, maybe they could update us on the final number in the comments.

 

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Loz
Guest
Loz

first

Loz
Guest
Loz

My apologies for the ego-centric ‘first’ post – I have never previously posted this early and was caught by the moment 😉

Feds clamping down on cheap, and risky, credit goes a long way towards gradually releasing the housing bubble pressure – in the long run the Canadian society wins and the Tory’s get my vote.

I have travelled to the Far east earlier – in countries like China, there is a massive explosion of cheap credit over the last 10 years. This has repercussions all over the globe – it will not end pretty.

The US went through a similar period in the last decade; it did not end pretty. Probably China will be less bad as it is a developing county and there is room for spending on infrastructure upgrades that can pull the economy alony.

N
Guest
N

@Loz:

“Feds clamping down on cheap, and risky, credit goes a long way towards gradually releasing the housing bubble pressure – in the long run the Canadian society wins and the Tory’s get my vote.”

That makes it sound as if the Tories are bubble hawks. They are the ones who got us here. They are are now putting the rules back where they were before they decided to inflate an already over-heated market in 2006 (see, for example, http://saskatoonhousingbubble.blogspot.ca/2012/01/look-at-cmhc-mortgage-rule-changes.html).

The Tories should only get your vote if you think that a government engineered bubble and a crash is the signature of good management.

VMD
Member

larry’s averages are out
http://www.yattermatters.com/2012/10/vancouvers-average-price-could-be-a-false-positive/
detached avg $
MoM -2%
YoY +1%

SFH inventory and sales data continues to be bad.

b5baxter
Member

So sales are now worse than both the 2008-2009 downturn and the downturn in the mid-90s?

Bull! Bull! Bull!
Guest
Bull! Bull! Bull!

I’m SHOCKED! SHOCKED I SAY! to see that the average sales price is steady…

N
Guest
N

@b5baxter:

I am guessing that the 1994 cut off is just due to lack of data, and not a particularly bad year in 1993, which we didn’t beat. In that case, I guess we would have to say that this was the worst September on record.

VMD
Member

@N:
If Vancouver RE has any correlation with Victoria RE, then if our sales # is lower than 1994, it’s probably also lower than 1985-1993
http://www.vreb.org/pdf/historical_statistics/YE782011.pdf

Bag it and tag it
Guest
Bag it and tag it

@VMD: “If Vancouver RE has any correlation with Victoria RE, then if our sales # is lower than 1994, it’s probably also lower than 1985-1993”

Agreed. Things starting cooling in ’94, so at least the 4 years previous to ’94 were all hot years, so none of them would have had worse sales than last month.

On a relative basis, to the overall supply of units, last month was probably the worst month since the 30’s.

yvr2zrh
Member

OK – so not to shift the sentiment. However – – September sales increased from August. Both months were terrible for sure but the main driver for the decrease was the existence of 5 weekends and a holiday to make only 19 sales days. Yould could have 21 sales days in September most years. As well, August was the opposite, it had more sales days at 22 compared to 19 for Sept.

Now – – I’m sure somehow that the message getting out will be negative – worst September in recent history – – but don’t take it as the end of the world – it’s just really bad and probably not going to get much worse for sales volumes.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

If you consider something like sales/population, this is way worse than anything in the 90s or earlier.

registered
Member
registered

5 b5baxter Says: “So sales are now worse than both the 2008-2009 downturn and the downturn in the mid-90s?”

Sauder has stats on starts (not sales) going back to 1972. The late Nineties saw a return to normal levels after the inflation of a national, late Eighties mini-bubble followed by Hong Kong’s repatriation in 1997: http://i50.tinypic.com/qskqp3.gif

Sales likely followed a similar pattern.

Hugh G Rection
Guest
Hugh G Rection

@YVR2ZRH

How relevant is that though? Wouldn’t less non holiday weekdays…or “sale days” as you call them, just mean more (day to day) lumpiness and not really affect the monthly total?

Drachen
Member

@YVR2ZRH:

“OK – so not to shift the sentiment. However – – September sales increased from August. Both months were terrible for sure but the main driver for the decrease was the existence of 5 weekends and a holiday to make only 19 sales days. Yould could have 21 sales days in September most years. As well, August was the opposite, it had more sales days at 22 compared to 19 for Sept.”

Well, those are sales reporting days, for one. If you think realtors don’t do business on weekends you don’t get out much.

Second, if you do the math, and adjust 2008 figures by 10% the sales are almost EXACTLY the same on a per-sales-reporting-day basis (1472.7272…).

vangrl
Member
vangrl

is Paul mad at us?

binny
Guest
binny

vangrl :”is Paul mad at us?”

No, he is busy translating his website to Chinese.

jesse
Member
I don’t think we should expect sales in October to be as bad as they were in 2008. I plotted total monthly waymarked YTD sales since 1999 here. I expect this year to be about the same as 2008 in terms of total yearly sales. In terms of Realtor commissions, 2008 was pretty bad (most of the weakness was in the second half) and 2009, initially, looked horrendous, but sales picked up again in the second half, eclipsing 2008 by June. 2009 ended up being near the top of the pack for sales volumes despite a slow start. That is, for those whose salaries depend upon transactions, the 2008-2009 recession was only about 8 months long and there was a marked and fruitful rebound in sales to keep annual commissioned salaries robust with only temporary distress. If Vancouver is in… Read more »
Vote Down The Facts
Guest
Vote Down The Facts

@Drachen: “Well, those are sales reporting days, for one. If you think realtors don’t do business on weekends you don’t get out much.”

I doubt inspectors, mortgage brokers, and the other 3rd parties involved in subject removal do much business on weekends.

yvr2zrh
Member
@Drachen: Ahem – I’m out a bit too much latelay actually. It sounds silly but the timing of the weekends affect the sales numbers because any activity from September 29-30 can not be reported until October 1, the first market day of REBGV. It’s like having a shorter month. August had the exact opposite effect so if you take Aug/Sep and combine them for both 2008 and 2012, we are only slightly up in 2012. (It’s so slight that I think that Tsur S. would say something like I don’t see any difference one way or the other). It’s up 0.5% in terms of sales volumes for 2012 compared to 2008. One thing for sure is that 2012 Oct will be better than 2008. It’s just a different market now than the one impacted by massively falling stock portfolios. (i.e.,… Read more »
jesse
Member

@YVR2ZRH: September has 30 days every year, the only difference is there are fewer days to record the transactions — the sales with subjects removed on weekends will appear in the following week so October 1st (today) will contain a weekend’s activity normally captured in September. Judging by daily recorded sales patterns it won’t be that many since Monday usually has low sales recorded anyway.

As I have stated a few times I agree with your sentiment regarding sales for the rest of the year. We’ll have more certainty on that call after the first week or so in October.

gokou3
Guest
gokou3

Got an email from Ozzie Jurock, a real estate “marketer”:

“Phoenix Looking Good

I spent 3 days in Phoenix this week looking at property.

The market is definitely higher over last year.

Prices on single family homes are up 30%.

On condos … +20% – 35%.

Lots of good news … construction up, sales up, listings way down – from 55,000 4 years ago … to 11,000 today! (Vancouver has 18,000.)

Metro Phoenix’s foreclosure rate in July, meaning the percentage of all outstanding residential mortgages in a particular area that are in some stage of the foreclosure process, was ONLY 2.18 percent!

That’s a notable 8 percent decline from June and a whopping 39 percent drop from last July’s 3.57 percent foreclosure rate, the CoreLogic report said.

Las Vegas – the new Phoenix next year?”

gokou3
Guest
gokou3

I think when you see a Vancouver RE pumper touting properties from other places you know the game here is over.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting
Devore
Member
Devore

@Hugh G Rection: That’s what I suggested a couple weeks ago. The number of business days in a month doesn’t matter. To which someone responded that sales only get entered on workdays. But that only means higher numbers on the first work day after a long weekend/holiday, keeping overall monthly numbers the same. Only thing that MIGHT affect monthly numbers is unfortunate placement of weekends at the beginning and/or end of the month, which has nothing to do with the number of working days, and in any case should be compensated by the increase in population/households. We’ve gone from about 1.8M in 1996 to 2.4M in 2011; surely, sales and listings should be proportionally higher?

GVREB
Member
GVREB
Steady and low sales volumes continue through September FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE ON VCI VANCOUVER, B.C. –October 3, 2012 – Sales volumes in the Greater Vancouver real estate market flattened in September 2012 yet showed typical seasonal correlations compared to August 2012. September 2012 had the lowest monthly sales volumes for the month of September in more than 20 years as the impact of the new mortgage regulations were fully reflected in market activity. Sales volumes increased compared to August 2012 with daily sales volumes increasing to 77 sales per market day in the first half of the month and then to 84 sales per market day in the second half of the month. These volumes are at seasonally historical low levels and when combined with high inventory levels, active sellers are seeing few active buyers and must price their properties… Read more »
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