Rabidoux in Vancouver / HK property tax

A couple of news tidbits today:

First off Ben Rabidoux will be putting on a seminar in Vancouver about how to get rich flipping presales condo contracts.

At least I assume that’s what he’ll be talking about, what else could you talk about at a Vancouver real estate seminar?

Ben will be joined by David LePoidevin and they’ll actually be talking about the current state of the market, what comes next and what a ‘hard landing’ would look like for the economy and your investments.

Could Canada be facing a housing crash similar to what the US experienced?  As Canada’s most expensive real estate market, how will Vancouver fare?  What are the broader implications of a significant housing correction on the Canadian economy and job market?  What would a housing crash mean to your investment portfolio, and how can you protect yourself?

The event is at the Westin Bayshore on Wednesday November 28th at 7pm.  Registration is free, but first come first served.  There will be a Q&A session and a speculator dunk tank.  (Sorry, made that last one up.)

Also in the news, Mike sent in this note about a new property tax imposed in Hong Kong for non-resident buyers. Non-local and corporate buyers will now pay an extra 15% tax on purchase of property.  Hong Kong joins similar moves by Singapore and Australia to squeeze extra money out of foreign investors and give local buyers a market advantage to housing.

The 15 percent tax “will be effective in curbing foreign demand – mostly from mainland buyers – and avoiding ‘hot money’ influx into the property market,” Alfred Lau, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Bocom International Holdings Co., wrote in a report today. “However, local demand is not affected.”

The new property tax doesn’t apply to Hong Kong permanent residents. Inhabitants need to live in the city for seven straight years to be eligible for permanent residency, according to immigration rules, while Chinese citizens born in the city are automatically granted that status.

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Rusty's Ghost
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Rusty's Ghost
More Data Please
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More Data Please
@jesse: re: @Dave: re intrade. 2013 Instead of messing around with a fly by night Irish bookmaker, why not open a cash account with National Bank and place a small bet on the Teranet 2013 Vancouver forward contract. There could be some nice advantages. (1) National Bank (Montreal) is subject to Canadian judicial and regulatory regime. The contracts aren’t normal securities and thus likely have to be opened and closed on the Teranet exchange, but at least you can complain to OSFI and have legal standing in the courts. (2) Teranet contracts are less transparent than the Case Shiller house futures on the CME, but you can probably place a 1/10 ($10K) or even 1/20 ($5K) contract bet with Teranet (1 contract = $100K notional value). Thus even with illiquid (large bid/ask spread) on the Teranet quotation market, your account… Read more »
Rusty's Ghost
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Rusty's Ghost

@IamTheChimpman:

OMG I’M INVITED TO THE PARTY??

what are you putting in the punch?

OMG i feel so dizzy

what are you doing to my clothes, i can’t keep my eyes open..

Devore
Member
Devore

@Anonymous:

I’m also unconformable with the notion that an asset that rises due to a broad inflation has really risen in value you might be taxing inflation and that’s seems goofy to me!

Why is that goofy? When you sell assets, do you get to inflation-adjust your cost basis? Inflation is taxed on every transaction already.

s
Guest
s
anon123
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anon123

@Anonymous:

So true.

Super-rich usually stay in their own country, send their children to the best private schools locally or anywhere in the world and fly anywhere they need for healthcare to get the best treatments.

Don’t think that the motivation for buying an overpriced house is to be in the catchment area for a public school and to get free healthcare.

GNFINGR
Guest

So the freeze on the investor immigrant program ceases in January? Does anyone know how many people are admitted under this program per year? Pre freeze?

Anonymous
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Anonymous

@IamTheChimpman: “Of course there are thousands of CHINAmen and CHINAwomen setting up their families here while they stay in China to make tax free millions. We have FREE healthcare and FREE schooling, are you blind?”

Someone who makes ‘millions’ could care less about ‘free’ health care and schooling. They can afford to pay for better health care and schooling elsewhere. As an example the people in the US who make millions for the most part don’t want ‘free’ state run health care. They would prefer to just pay for premium care and get what they want when they need it rather than be on waiting lists and in obsolete hospitals. Contrary to what most Canadians think our health care and education systems are not the envy of the world. Certainly not for the wealthy. Maybe for the poor.

rp1
Guest
rp1

#66 @Makaya: Ouch that’s got to hurt? 200k is a rounding error on a 2 million dollar home. Shows how out of touch people are. Do you think a celebrity selling a sprawling Beverly Hills mansion for 2 million dollars would be devastated by a loss of 200k? Then why would it be any different in Vancouver, where a run down shack is even more expensive?

What a bunch of rubes.

VMD
Member

@jesse:
“Inventory”
October 19th, 2012 at 6:17 pm
Inventory update 6pm
19,001 ; )

rp1
Guest
rp1
Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Anonymous: If you don’t believe it then,go to 33 and Arbutus and draw a 6 km radius at crawl around in a bicycle and count how many Cheena elderly and peasant looking folks,or even concubine feature looking sexy Cheena women living around there,all of them are the agent of their lovers,Husbands? and parents of Cheena Communist cadets who are still sitting on all levels of Cheena government.Even the top boss’s sister living there.Seeing is believing.

jesse
Member

Ahem 🙂
jesse said on Oct 16: “I don’t think another 19K party is likely for the rest of 2012”

Date    paulb reported Inventory
Oct 16  18963
Oct 17  18952
Oct 18  18974
Oct 19  18993
Oct 22  18943
Oct 23  18925
Oct 24  18911
Oct 25  18910
Oct 26  18851
Oct 29  18743
Oct 30  18695
Makaya
Member
Makaya

And if news on the housing front were not bad enough…

Bank of Canada chief Mark Carney hints at interest rate hikes

OTTAWA — Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney is suggesting interest rates will likely rise before the end of 2014.

It’s one of the clearest indications Carney has given as to when he might raise the bank’s key benchmark, which has been held at one per cent for more than two years.

Responding to a question in the Commons finance committee Tuesday afternoon, the bank governor said the bank’s current thinking was that monetary policy will need to be tightened before 2015.

IamTheChimpman
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IamTheChimpman

Of course there are thousands of CHINAmen and CHINAwomen setting up their families here while they stay in China to make tax free millions.

We have FREE healthcare and FREE schooling, are you blind?

Or are you just dumb?

Because if your blind hopefully your not stupid too.

Just trying to help.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@an observer: “A few more for fun…”

But I thought all the Westside houses were bought up by rich Chinese foreigners looking to put their satellite family’s here? In reality there never was a mainland Chinese boom here in Vancouver. It was all local speculators (many who are Asian) who took the real estate industry bait and are now paying the price. Worked out good for the realtors though who collected those fat commissions.

Anonymous
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Anonymous

@patriotz:

Lets face it your 15% Tax idea is a dumb one. The end result would be people borrowing more to buy a house then getting the money back later where in most cases the money would be pissed away and not put towards the mortgage. At minimum everyone would pay more interest. Just a bad idea on so many fronts.

IamTheChimpman
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IamTheChimpman

an observer, those are some good stats, well done.

great bargains, one and all. good place to start. buying that is.

where do you think prices will be in seven months, 20% higher? 25% higher?

you could make a killing, if you’ve got the moxie and like money.

do you?

an observer
Guest

@an observer:

That last one in Belcarra should have read $2.198M initial asking price

an observer
Guest
A few more for fun: (just some random ones I found, I’m sure there are now literally hundreds of homes being relisted for a loss) V961081 in Shaughnessy bought for $4.6 in Sep 2011 Assessed at $4.066 Listed at $4.288 sometime before March and now $3.988 since July Estimated loss if sold for ask = $824K V973380 in Mackenzie Heights bought for $1.92M May 2011 Assessed at $1.716M Listed at $2.38M sometime before March and now $1.698 since September Estimated loss if sold for ask = $317K V971319 in Dunbar bought for $2.41M June 2011 Assessed at $2.286M Listed at $2.448M in September and now $2.248 as of last week Estimated loss if sold for ask = $282K V953921 in Richmond bought for $1.168M Feb 2011 Assessed at $1.0297M Listed at $1.26M sometime before March and now $950K as of… Read more »
IamTheChimpman
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IamTheChimpman

You Shitbirds will be disappointed yet again.

The WSJ article highlights how the Canadian immigration rules will change again in January. Watch houses in Richmond and the Westside EXPLODE higher.

Can’t you read the tea leaves when it’s that EASY!

I’d be buying now and flipping in a handful of months, if you did this with a few properties you could easily score a million or more in 5-7 months with perhaps 10-15 hours of total effort.

Yes, I know for the average goofball on this blog that’s chump change, but for the rest of us mere millionaires it’s a decent return on our capital.

Your invited to the party, all you have to do is say yes.

jesse
Member

@Dave: re intrade. I blogged about this here: http://housing-analysis.blogspot.ca/2012/09/betting-on-vancouvers-house-price-crash.html
I think it’s long odds, but hey 2013 is probably going to be an odd year.

Anonymous
Guest
Anonymous

@Makaya: “337k in 16 months.”

Tell us another story Santa 🙂

I love the smell of losers in the morning.

ReadyToPop
Guest
ReadyToPop

Also in the news, Mike sent in this note about a new property tax imposed in Hong Kong for non-resident buyers. Non-local and corporate buyers will now pay an extra 15% tax on purchase of property. Hong Kong joins similar moves by Singapore and Australia to squeeze extra money out of foreign investors and give local buyers a market advantage to housing.

Now add all the Asian countries that don’t allow foreign property investment at all, and it’s going to be very hard for anyone to complain when Canada finally follows with something similar.

paulb
Member

New Listings 152
Price Changes 107
Sold Listings 96
TI:18695

http://www.paulboenisch.com