Realtor: DO NOT PANIC about bubble.

There’s an interesting read over at BCBusinessOnline about those crazy bubble bloggers and forum bears:

The “Bears” talk cover up which I always find so intriguing. Commenting on the September stats from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, Seth M. says:  “This will only make the conspiratorially minded angrier — most of them convinced that the so-called benchmark indices produced by organized real estate are covering up a major decline.” The reality is the numbers from behind the HPI are actuals.  They aren’t fabricated to prop up a cyclic market so that realtors can hang onto their markets.

Now there may be some of you that believe the ‘cover up’ angle on the HPI, but I think you’re maybe a little crazy.  There is nothing to be gained by massaging the numbers.  My feeling on the HPI is that there seems to have been no good reason to change the methodology for calculating it.  It used to be a very decent apples to apples historical comparison, but by changing the measurement and then recalculating it they’ve killed its value as a long term gauge.

I think any problems with the HPI come down to opacity and bad math, not any smoky back room conspirators whose only goal is to keep house prices high.

But what do I know?  I’m just a crazy anonymous bubble blogger.

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Proud and extremely rich Chinese home owners

@painted turtle:
It is a pure lie.How do u know them,do u speak Pure Chinese

shock_minus_control

This is why these blogs are so frustrating. The methodology for calculating the HPI index was not changed. What was changed was the formula for calculating the benchmark price so that the per cent change would match the HPI index. The HPI used a chain-fisher method to aggregate sub-areas while the benchmark was aggregated with sales-weighting. That caused a slight difference in growth rates. It has now been resolved. If that sounds like a conspiracy rather than sound practice in constructing new statistical measures, then that is on you.

[…] sales decline 32% -Vancouver drags down national numbers -Time to panic -Vancouver market cooling too quickly? -Last September was a different season -Realtors forced to […]

Bo Xilai

@VMD:
“Singtao Chinese newspaper: Greater Vancouver realtors are now forced to quit and find new jobs”

According to Sing Tao, CREA’s chief economist Gregory Klump’s Chinese name is “Kelong Pu”.

I wonder if he’s related to Pepé Le Pew?

YVR2ZRH

End of day so this may need to be reposted tomorrow. Here are some general stats. 1.) Volumes continue to really languish. Y/Y down quite a bit and the pace is worsening compared to summer. 2.) Averages are going up on detached while down on attached. We are getting a few more high priced homes come through this month and the mix is shifting a bit as Richmond and Van-West are up this month in volume (comparatively). 3.) Listings are now slowing as expected. We will hit our peak inventory next week then fall about 35-40% for the closing of the year. That will put us at about 20% higher closing inventory than last year. This is the 3rd year of increases after 2009. This is it – – the bad news is out, people are waiting and making somewhat… Read more »

anon123

@Can’t wait: A dose of reality can’t come too soon. How come every cookie cutter condo is ‘elite’ and ‘exclusive’ when they’re everywhere ? And how everyone considers themselves ‘sophisticated’ and big-time investors just because they borrowed money to buy one of these properties ?

Anonymous

@Turkey: Brutal! For $25,000 less you can have this Hawaiian beauty. Sorry, no pitbull included!

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/78-7007-Kewalo-St_North-Kona_HI_96740_M75528-91865

UnagiDon

@Turkey: That is gold. You should consider sending to Garth and Mish.

Turkey

This is my new favourite Strathcona listing. $1.1M for “that house” with a pit bull in the yard and a serious police incident earlier this year. Since the listing is worse than useless, here’s the Google street view. If you could zoom in far enough, you’d see a prominently displayed American Body Armor logo.

You might think this is a ripe location for redevelopment, but Strathcona zoning is particularly restrictive and this lot is RT-3. On top of that, all three levels of government (plus the port authority and rail corporations) intend to re-route all the traffic that currently uses Prior St. along Malkin — right past the front yard. The new owner would probably end up hoping for expropriation.

mac
Romeo Jordan

I smell ANOTHER 19k party on the horizon. This is getting interesting. I’m hearing anecdotal horror story after anecdotal horror story. I suspect the great unwashed resemble a deer in the headlights of sorts – they are not sure what to make of it…but as the months tick onward, reality will set in – until the semi hits them and rips them to shreds. I’m hearing of developers who are getting squeezed/foreclosed on (demand loans getting called on some of the smaller developers who have high ratio loans), they could see their equity they’ve built up (unless they’ve squirrelled money away and immunized it, I’m sure many have…but most won’t have) over the past decade erased in the next few MONTHS. I’m seriously hearing of horror stories that extreme, where developers have build multiple units on spec and now NO… Read more »

Ralph Cramdown

@Best place on meth: The law says minimum $10.25.

Tell him you’ll tip for good service?

Best place on meth

@Dumbest Time in 30 Years to Buy Real Estate:

The law says minimum $10.25.

Dumbest Time in 30 Years to Buy Real Estate

$8.00 tops!

Best place on meth

@VMD:

” Ever since he’s working as a realtor, he’s been busy every weekend showing houses, one client even had him show >10 units. He had a total of 20 clients in the first half year, but no sale.”

This is why realtors should be paid by the hour, so they don’t have to suffer the indignity of working so hard for no pay.

$12 sounds about right.

Loon

@mac:
Dude just download chrome already an stop using safari and wasting our board space.

TNT

Soon all of the FOR SALES will be at -Price Changes- it will be interesting how they spin that.
Perhaps use the money market fluctuations on any given year and stir into the pot.

I left a post on a realtor frequented site.

My question was:

Why when a property is sold for below listed price does the(sold for below listed) price not reflect in the paper or online afterwards.

RE agents always advertise their SALEs and run them for a few weeks or months afterwards.
SOLD.

But why when it sells for over asking do they post or print, SOLD FOR OVER ASKING.

Is that another over sight or math error.
How about manipulation.

mclovin

I am not pumping this site but it makes me howl with delight everything I read it.

http://vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com/

A couple of these condo’s are actually approaching positive cash flow as a rental. Imagine that? A property paying for itself? Never happen here. Doesn’t need, prices go up 10% per year.

mac

@Village Whisperer: Previously, I had scrolled through the list to NAME/URL and then put my name in the allotted space. Whatever I post now, just disappears with the posting click. I tried previewing it, same thing. Then I tried the anonymous route but the same thing happened. So that has been my problem. I’m on a Mac. But I used to have no problems. Maybe it’s the OS upgrade I did? Don’t have a clue.

VCI, thanks for letting me contact Whisperer on your blog. Hope that is OK with your blog rules. Don’t want to start a Ben Rabidoux/Garth Turner feud here but there seemed to be no other way to contact Whisperer on his blog.

Village Whisperer

@mac: What sort of problems are you having? The blogger template can be temperamental. In the past others have said they simply post as anonymous and add their moniker in the body of the post to get around difficulties they have had with the blogger format.

WOWSERS

No doubt about it, the warm Sept,Oct contributed to sales, like I said before when the rain starts to fall so will the sales!

mclovin

68? Must be the rain.

jay

@Inventory:

Well, even the leader got burnt by flipping houses:

http://youtu.be/bNmcf4Y3lGM

paulb

New Listings 160
Price Changes 122
Sold Listings 65
TI:18974

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Beuller

@VMD: GOOD! Boo fricking hoo. Easy 5 week internet course come, easy useless “professional” accreditation go. Now maybe I will get some better service at WalMart. There will be a lot of off lease Beemers pretty soon too.